The first, and most obvious, thing I need to address is Vergeben’s leak. Yes, Vergeben said that Lycanroc is not in the game and Incineroar is. This is easily the most compelling evidence against Lycanroc and for Incineroar. Vergeben has had a solid record thus far, predicting outlandish characters like Simon and Ridley. However, Vergeben is not a perfect source for information, even on games where he has a solid track record (Raditz and Zarbon say hi). I also think it’s odd Vergeben would deliver a leak this way when he’s been so up front about what characters are in the game before. Why would Vergeben do a complete 180 and start making claims like “x, y, z are not in the game” when claims like “w is in the game” have been his way of delivering information up until now? Thusly, I think there’s a discussion to be had even with Vergeben throwing his hat into the ring. Especially considering there’s a leaker with equal credibly who may disagree with him...
Loz posted a screenshot before the direct of Vergeben messaging him to verify some claims, with Loz stating some of the claims were wrong. The 4 claims Vergeben made in this leak were: Simon is in the game, Isabelle is in the game, Decidueye, Mimikyu, and Lycanroc are not the Gen 7 Pokemon, and there’s no new DK characters on the base roster (a claim Vergeben himself was not sure of, as he notes). Obviously, the Simon claim was true, so that couldn’t be the section of the leak that Loz disagreed with. Likewise, we know the claim of no new Donkey Kong characters is false, but Vergeben was always very iffy on that idea to begin with, so it’s unlikely Loz would have to publicly call it out as false. That leaves two claims left that could be false, Isabelle being a fighter and Decidueye/Mimikyu/Lycanroc not being fighters. Isabelle strikes me as a near certainty at this point, she’s popular, she’s practically the new face of Animal Crossing when it comes to things like spinoffs (Mario Kart, Amiibo Festival, and Pocket Camp all had Isabelle at the forefront.), her assist trophy is mysteriously absent, and she would be an easy Villager echo. All this points towards Loz possibly disagreeing with Vergeben’s statement of Decidueye or Lycanroc not being in the game (given how Mimikyu is deconfirmed). Disregarding all this discussion over leaks, I still think there’s a lot of practical evidence that hints to Lycanroc over Incineroar.
The most prominent piece of evidence in favour of Lycanroc is his role as Ash’s ace in the anime, similar to Charizard and Greninja. Lycanroc is often Ash’s Pokemon of choice whenever an important battle is about to begin and he has a fairly solid win record. Additionally, Lycanroc’s achievements (such as learning new moves) are often held up as a large deal. I think the arc that best emphasizes this is Ash’s recent battles against Nanu. He was only allowed to bring one Pokemon, and he chose his Lycanroc, showing the dependability and leadership he has over Rowlet, Torracat, and Poipole. He also learned Stone Edge, mastered his feral, red-eyed state, and learned Counter in the middle of his final battle against Nanu, all of which were treated as major feats and achievements for the duo.
A common counterpoint against this is the theory that Ash’s Torracat will evolve and become the new ace of his Alola team. The common piece of evidence to support this idea is Incineroar’s concept art, which shows a sketch of an Incineroar laying near Ash in the bottom right corner. While this realistically could be Professor Kukui’s Incineroar, or a random Incineroar, let’s say this is undeniable proof that Torracat will evolve into Incineroar for the sake of argument. The question then becomes, when is he going to evolve? The anime is currently setting groundwork for an arc about Solgaleo, Lunala, and Ultra Necrozma and an arc about Minna. The anime will also probably have an additional arc with Hapu (or whoever her stand-in is), a few adventures around school and hunting Ultra Beasts, and the inevitable Alolan League arc. Even if Torracat evolves right at the start of this new arc in episode 88, the time for Incineroar to shine as Ash’s main Pokemon is extremely limited. Contrast this with Ash’s Lycanroc, which evolved from Rockruff in episode 38 and took lead of the party shortly after. It would be strange for Game Freak to spend 50 episodes building a Pokemon up, only to discard them.
Lycanroc’s uniqueness is also a large point in its corner. Sakurai has said before that a character being unique and breaking new group is important for a non-echo newcomer. Lycanroc has 2 major factors in its favour: its feral, quadruped fighting style and its earth-based power set. Thus far, we only have 2 quadruped characters in Smash: Ivysaur and Duck Hunt. The former of which uses their vines as arms and the later of which has the duck assist him in his attacks and is rather cartoony. Lycanroc would be quite feral and animalistic, being bound to all fours. Lycanroc would be quite feral and animalistic, being bound to all fours and fighting with bites, slashes, and tackles. One of the biggest concerns over Lycanroc’s possible inclusion is how a quadruped character would wield items without any assistance. I personally don’t think this is a huge deal. Lycanroc could easily hold, swing, and use single hand items such as the Beam Sword or Killing Edge with its mouth. Likewise, heavy items such as crates and party balls could be held and thrown using its back. The biggest issue is the Super Scope, as many figure it needs two hands to hold and shoot. However, Smash has taken a lot of creative liberty with the Super Scope before (Wario holds the front of the super scope and shakes it back and forward to shoot it, for example) so having Lycanroc use the Super Scope isn’t too out there. There’s also geokinesis of Lycanroc that would be unique. Thus far, we have yet to see a character utilize rocks or the ground in their moveset, so Lycanroc would be breaking new thematic ground. Lycanroc’s rock type also gives it access to unique moves which haven’t been seen in Smash yet, such as Stone Edge, Rock Throw, Rock Climb, Drill Run, Stealth Rock, and Accelerock.
Incineroar is slightly more rough for wear in this category. The most common idea for Incineroar is to have him emulate the wrestler archetype found in many fighting games, similar to how Little Mac emulates the fighting style of real world boxers. However, there’s one big problem in the way of Incineroar, Bowser. Bowser is a heavy character with super armour, powerful attacks, a drop kick, and a pile driver command grab, he’s really one lariat away from being a full blown wrestler. Likewise, King K. Rool also has a few wrestler moves, such as his drop kick f-air and back breaking up-throw (although K. Rool takes more from Sumo Wrestlers than Western wrestlers). Sakurai has stated he does not like to have characters that reuse ideas that pre-existing characters already have, which puts Incineroar at a huge disadvantage, especially when we’ve already gotten a heavy weight character with wrestling moves in his moveset. The best case scenario to make Incineroar unique is to go all in with the “heel” idea, giving him moves such as hitting opponents with chairs or spitting in their eyes. However, then the character begins to stray too far from what Incineroar is in Pokemon. Incineroar is a dirty fighter, but he still has an aspect of a legitimate warrior, he isn’t a cheater who can’t confront others in a one-on-one fight. Contrasting this with Lycanroc, the closest character to Lycanroc’s play style is Wolf, but those two would immediately separate themselves due to one being a biped and the other being a quadruped. Incineroar also has a tough card in his fire element, the most common elemental ascetic in Smash. Lycanroc would be fully unique relative to the rest of the Smash roster in his geokinesis attacks.
, we can hear more Prime series tracks in the game.
