Agreed.
For me, even when the Ashley hype train made the character's situation feel more likely on the outside, internally, I still stuck to my gut and believed in my personal assessment on her low chances based on everything that went against and benefitted her inclusion.
Not only should we as speculators form and assess our own thoughts carefully, we should also be
open to all sorts of newcomer choices.
If you cannot be open, the chances of your predictions coming to pass based on what is currently popular and trending will most surely falter.
Being open and being able to assess a character's chances carefully is why I am willing to predict all kinds of choices like a Japan-only retro newcomer, surprise character, 'out-there' third parties like Layton/Leon Kennedy, ballot-based characters like K. Rool and Simon, and all sorts of newcomer choices. I am still sticking my guns on what I feel which newcomers are unlikely and have a real chance to this day, gradually being more open to the possibilities like Dante/Heihachi, a newcomer selection half-filled with third parties, echos possibly outnumbering the number of unique characters, and a whole bunch of other scenarios.
Form your own conclusions and be open, so that your time spent with speculation here on Smashboards will not be a waste.
This is what I think.