Hot take:
I don’t like the whole “Elma ain’t the protagonist” reasoning and thinking they’ll pull a “Robin over Chrom” in favor of Cross. The reason being that Cross is truly a blank slate, both in personality and abilities.
Robin? Their class is by default strategist, being able to use magic tomes, and they have a set personality and are crucial to the story. The only things about them that are up to you are their appearance, voice, gender, and who they end up with. They technically can reclass, but Strategist/(whatever is the direct upgrade of Strategist) is usually their best class and they can even go through the whole game without reclassing.
Cross? Has no default personality and doesn’t talk in cutscenes, they just have dialogue lines during certain events that raise affinity with different members depending on the choices you make. They also don’t have a truly “default” class battle wise, their first class is meant to be the worst one and you can take three class paths, each with their own weapons and skills, and can switch at any time. Not to mention it’s a LOT of different weapons.
Now for Chrom vs Elma...
Chrom is indeed one of the protagonists of Awakening alongside Robin and his own daughter, Lucina. In fact, Chrom was considered for the 4 roster and if he was finalized he would probably have been an Ike clone. Sakurai probably hit a hurdle when formulating his move set, unsure what to do with him since Chrom didn’t have any “signature moves” per se for a Lord, or Sakurai couldn’t find a way to make him unique like Robin, so he relegated that fully functional potential fighter render into Robin’s 4 Final Smash.
Now for Elma. While Cross is the player character, I’d argue Elma actually is the protagonist in the truest sense of the word. Since the story focuses on her. She’s the one who finds Cross and takes them to NLA, she’s the one who helped the citizens of NLA escape Earth, she’s the one who does the most of the talking when representing your party in story cutscenes, and your team is always referred to as “Elma’s team”. And I can’t say more because spoilers, but it’s obvious she’s the one X focuses on as its main character. And moveset wise, there is a LOT of untapped uniqueness potential Sakurai can utilize. Elma would be the first true dual sword user (it coulda also been Fiora but...you know...) AND she also has dual guns. TWO sets of main weapons that can be switched on the fly. Also, the Skell. I want to believe Sakurai’s mech model photo was alluding to Elma, possibly using a Skell in her Final Smash.
And that, ladies, gentlemen, and non-binary acquaintances, is why I firmly believe they will not pull a “Robin over Chrom” with Elma.
Drops mic