I posted this in the Ashley thread, but I feel its important for all Smash Bros. speculators to read:
It is still possible we get a Nintendo Direct either this week or next week. I think the topic of such a Direct would probably be just about Nintendo 3DS software. The Nintendo 3DS was not featured at all in the E3 2018 Direct, and yet Nintendo has stated they plan to support the console through 2019. There is also the fact that the last two games that have set release dates in Japan (WarioWare Gold and Etrian Odyssey X) both release next week. After that Nintendo just has a nebulous "2018" release for Luigi's Mansion, and a "2019" release for the Mario & Luigi: Bowser's Inside Story remake.
Kimishima has confirmed that they still have games that they plan to release in 2018 that they still have announced yet.
It would make sense to have a Nintendo Direct either this week or next week, so that:
1. They can give a last minute push and spotlight to WarioWare Gold (and Etrian Odyssey X in Japan).
2. Give some spotlight to Yokai Watch Busters (which releases on September 7th in North America and Europe).
3. Show off new details about Luigi's Mansion and possibly Mario & Luigi: Bowser's Inside Story.
4. Show off any unannounced Nintendo 3DS titles, especially ones that they plan to release in 2018 or Q1 2019.
5. Possibly throw in a newcomer unveil trailer for Ultimate.
This is all conjecture. They can easily avoid not giving any more spotlight to WarioWare Gold, and even put off doing a 3DS focused Nintendo Direct entirely, and instead put any unannounced 3DS titles into the likely September Nintendo Direct (in recent years there has been a Nintendo Direct in September that gave focus to titles releasing in Q4 of that year). Also, the last time there was a Nintendo Direct dedicated only to Nintendo 3DS software was September 2016, nearly two years ago.
What is riding on a Nintendo Direct happening either this week or next week is not just the probability of an Ashley confirmation, but also just how many newcomers there will be in Ultimate. We are only 4.5 months away from release, and there have only been three newcomers confirmed for Ultimate (one of which was a echo fighter, the cloney-iest of clones). Sakurai has said not to "expect too many new fighters", and most serious speculators only expect ten non-echo newcomers at most and five more non-echo newcomers at least. If they are going to wait until September to start confirming one newcomer per month, or until the likely Smash Bros. Direct in November, there could very well be only five more non-echo newcomers at most, and most likely only two or three more.
I am personally neutral on Ashley as a character. However, much like other Smash Bros. fans, I would like to see some new information on Ultimate considering it has been over six weeks since we learned anything new (granted the Ultimate unveil by far gave us more information than any other unveil ever for a Smash Bros. title). Typically, newcomer confirmations have been spaced out, especially so during a title's last few months prior to release.
During the last five months of Brawl's release, Ike, Diddy Kong, Pokemon Trainer, Lucas, Sonic, King Dedede, and Olimar were confirmed. During the last four months for Smash 4, Palutena, Mii Fighters, Pac-Man, Lucina, Robin, and Shulk were confirmed. It is important to note that three of those listed for Smash 4 were confirmed during E3, and both Robin and Lucina shared a trailer (and Lucina is an echo fighter).
For Ultimate's E3, there was the same amount of newcomers confirmed as the Fire Emblem Smash 4 trailer, a newcomer and an echo newcomer. This would leave only the Smash Bros. Direct before Ultimate's release as the sole opportunity to have more than one newcomer confirmation for a direct (aside from some newcomer trailers possibly also confirming an echo newcomer like Robin's did).
Aside from the possible 3DS focused Direct, the only other opportunities for Directs with a newcomer unveil for Ultimate would be the September Direct and the Ultimate focused Direct. There is also a possibility a Pokemon newcomer could be confirmed for a possible Pokemon Let's Go focused Nintendo Direct. Another possibility is that Sakurai announces newcomer unveils via Twitter like he did for the trailer that unveiled Robin and Lucina.
However, each week that goes by without any new information learned, the probability of there being only two or three more non-echo newcomers left increases, since it will become increasingly likely the plan will be not to space out newcomer confirmations, but rather to save them all for an Ultimate focused Nintendo Direct that will likely happen some time in November.
So its not just the probability of Ashley that will take a hit after next week without a Nintendo Direct, but also the probability of ALL possible newcomers, especially ones that can not be implemented as echo fighters. Each week without a Nintendo Direct or a newcomer confirmation, the probability of an additional non-echo newcomer slot goes down quite a bit.
We shall see what happens. A few weeks ago, I was optimistic that Ashley was going to be the next newcomer confirmed for Ultimate and that we would likely have a Nintendo Direct either this week or next week. However, now I believe such odds for a Nintendo Direct and newcomer confirmation either this week or next week are only 50/50. The primary impetus for this this change in thought was no new information being revealed for the release date of the Captain Toad ports, not even a character of the day update for Peach (of which Toad is a part of).
It is becoming increasingly apparent that there is so much content from the June 12th unveil that can be posted on the Smash Blog, that we could very well be looking at several months before a new stage, item, Assist Trophy, Pokemon, or newcomer we have not seen on June 12th is confirmed or shown.
One less Nintendo Direct means one less opportunity for a newcomer confirmation. It is important for not just Ashley fans, but fans of all prospective newcomers to keep their fingers crossed for a Nintendo Direct either this week or next week. Hopefully, we will learn who Fighter #66 is by the end of next week.
If not, then who knows when we will learn. It may be all the way in September (when the next Nintendo Direct will likely happen), or Sakurai could be saving all he has left for November for Ultimate's Direct. If that is the case, I suggest for every serious speculator to revise their expectations on not only who to expect but what to expect (very few additional non-echo newcomers). If the character you are hoping for can not easily be made an echo fighter of another currently existing character on the roster, it might be for the best to keep your expectations low after next week.
We shall see. It is definitely still possible that Ashley is a newcomer in Ultimate if nothing happens this week or next week, just as it is still possible for any other character that has not already been de-confirmed. However, the longer it takes for any newcomer confirmations to happen (unless they start doing two per month starting in September), the more likely we will have less than eight more non-echo newcomers in Ultimate. Less than five more also becomes an increasingly likely possibility if nothing happens in August.
I do not care what happens to Ashley in Ultimate, but I still feel this is an important analysis to share.