I'd question what makes 55 in particular the supposed cutoff when, once more, many people were saying the same about 40 being the cutoff post-Brawl. I'd also argue at this point that the meta isn't a factor in development at all, since apparently Sakurai balances the game with only 4-Player Items-On Free-for-Alls in mind. And I definitely wouldn't consider the competitive players as anything more than a vocal minority, never mind "half the fanbase."
Also, I'm not sure if we can definitively say that it was the roster size itself that plagued those Naruto and DBZ games, but a lack of resources that often comes from being a licensed game. There are too many variables for one to accurately pinpoint one of them as the sole reason for the quality drop, IMO. And considering Smash is a big budget Nintendo game, I think it can manage higher numbers much more easily than the games you mentioned.
All in all I'm just not sure we should be preparing for a roster cull when such things were already wrongly predicted in the past, especially when Smash is a game that thrives upon its roster.
I'm not saying 55 is THE cutoff point, because there is no surefire cutoff point. What I'm saying is that roster size has an inverse effect on the balance of the game. The larger a roster gets the more simplified and less diverse the distinctions between characters become, the more painful it is to have to learn match ups, the less depth and nuance there is to each character, and in the case of Smash, the more tedious and less fun certain elements of the single player content become. And then ofc there's the ever present resources element.
I'll try to explain this as best I can, since for most people not familiar with fighting games, having different special moves is enough distinction for them, but it goes much deeper than that.
Smash 4 ALREADY has a problem with character variety, one easy to point to example is how Counter has become a super common goto filler move for charactes' Down B. There's just not much thought and creativity put into things that could have been a lot more creative.
But going even deeper, the overall movesets of many characters are very simple and straightforward. Generally, when you design a fighting game character's move, you want to see it as a tool, and see what sort of functionality the move serves (is it Anti Air? Is it a poke? Is it useful for Punish or Okizeme?), how it links into other moves, and how it's balanced amid the meta, by playtesting it again and again under various circumstances, and fine tuning it each time. This is a rigorous and painstaking process, and it becomes even more tedious the more characters you have in a roster as well. Thus, what this leads to with a roster 55 characters big, is that you only playtest and develop a handful of a character's moves, and the rest of it you just kinda toss in as simplified filler. The end result of this, is that combo creativity and variety among characters becomes very narrow, and you have many characters that, while they might have visually and statistically different moves, they all still kinda feel like they play very samey because their combos and approach tools are all far too similar, which in turn starts to make the game more luck-based than skill-based, and quickly make it boring once you see beneath the superficiality of the character movesets.
This problem is CURRENTLY present in Smash 4.
Most characters in the game have very few approach options, and with the emphasized focus on defensive play, the best way to start combos is thus typically through a grab. As such, a typical Smash 4 combos will look more or less like this:
Grab/Shieldgrab>Pummel>Pummel>D-Throw>Utilt>Utilt>Utilt>Utilt>USmash>Uair
Regardless of who you're playing as, whether it be Mario, Toon Link, Diddy Kong, DK, etc... Flowcharts are abound in Smash 4, and you can generally pin down the general archetypes most character flowcharts fall into. This is again, because most character movesets haven't been thoroughly developed, and thus, they can only consistently rely on certain specific moves in certain situations.
Moreover, there are various character elements movesets that have been very poorly implemented, with little overall thought given into how this affects things competitively. Like how ridiculous Mac's super armor is, or how counters have been buffed to earn easier kills, or Corrin's ENTIRE toolset, or Bayonetta's aerial dominance, or how Cloud's Uair beats pretty much everything due to its frame data. Stuff like this, is what starts to ruin the "fun factor" of a fighting game competitively. You just see characters throw out very powerful moves again and again because there's little to punish them for it. Overall, this is a good video on this subject matter:
Compare this to other character movesets in other fighting games, which feature various moves that are a lot more utilitarian in multiple situations:
The point I'm making is, developing a fighting game character takes a lot of time, a lot of careful thought, and rigorous playtesting again and again. This is the bulk of fighting game development. And the larger a roster gets, the more simplified and less nuanced characters become as a result of there being more and more work to do.
And moreover, no, this is not something that you can carry over from previous entries. If the game engine, or if mechanics that drastically alter the gameplay are added, EVERYONE needs to be totally rebalanced and retooled.
Anyway, this is a pattern that can be seen across all fighting games, and audiences generally prefer a DEEP ocean over a WIDE one. It's much better to have a fighting game with a small cast of roughly 20 characters that are incredibly deep and varied and all play VERY distinctly from each other, than a large cast of nearly 100 characters that all feel very samey as a result. And this is a statement that Sakurai himself agrees with. Now Smash unfortunately cannot have a roster as small as 20 characters (which is why Melee was beefed up with clones), but it can and does try to straddle a careful line between game balance and variety, and content and casual appeal. The competitive fighting game with the largest roster that comes to mind, is KoF2002, which hit 66 characters iirc, and that was a 3v3 fighter. The fact that roster bloat has already started to affect the overall experience in Smash 4, means the game can't really keep pushing onward and expanding the roster even further in consequent entries, lest it'll start to heavily affect game balance and character variety in a way that's far more noticeable to most people, than what it currently is.
And finally, yes, I KNOW Smash is not Guilty Gear, and that it will never have the same degree of nuance and depth found in traditional fighters, but we can definitely see the franchise get more and more simplified as the series went on. Part of the reason is ofc intentional design, but part of it is also roster bloat affecting game balance and character variety. So while Smash tries to straddle the line between competitive appeal, and casual appeal, further pushing the roster size would heavily hurt the competitive side of things by reducing the skill gap due to a lack of nuance and variety in playstyles and move sets.
Watch this video to understand why reducing the skill gap is overall bad:
Even for Smash, which is generally more casual than traditional fighters, we've pretty much pushed it as far as we can given how Smash 4 overall plays.
Anyway, that's all I gotta say on that I think. If you want me to further explain anything or clarify anything so that it makes more sense, ask away, as I could go more in depth into how fighting games tick and how they are made. I'm not sure about how well I might have explained things so that they make sense to people.
You're taking a lot out of context.
Robin almost not being in Smash 4 wasn't due to Robin being uninteresting or unpopular.
It was because if Awakening had released later, Sakurai wouldn't have been able to play the game and learn about its characters.
As for how popular Robin is. Both Robins are actually in their respective top 20s.
Male Robin is sitting comfortably in the top ten while Female Robin just barely lost to Nowi and is 11.
If we want to cheat a little and combine their numbers (since they're the same character really), Robin actually scores higher than Chrom and would sit comfortably in the top ten characters overall.
Robin is a very popular character.
And back when RTC was a thing, Robin had one of the highest Newcomers satisfaction scores.
They're popular both in a Smash Bros sense and a Fire Emblem sense.
You kind of made up some bull****, my friend.
isn't going anywhere.
He's the most prominent mage and avatar in the series, from one of the most popular games and has a moveset that most people tend to love.
You seem awfully confident that Robin would inevitably return.
Yeah, Robin is popular, but relative to other characters, he's also not.
Ike
Lyn
Lucina
Tharja
Roy
Hector
Camilla
---Robin
Chrom
Marth
Corrin
One of the biggest complaints after Smash 4 launched was "there are far too many FE characters" something even Sakurai acknowledged. Thus, it's fair to say that there will be heavy cuts to the FE part of the roster in the 5th installment.
Marth is a staple, and the face of the franchise, so he stays. And Ike is the most popular, so he stays too.
Corrin, Robin, Roy and Lucina are thus the remaining 4.
It would be reasonably to assume you'd have 3 cuts, with two new additions to make room. Reason being, new characters offer more variety and more incentive to play/buy a new game than returning characters.
Of these 4, Robin and Corrin are the least popular. Lucina also has the downside of being 1 of TWO Marth clones, and the least distinctive of the two at that.
Thus, I can see Robin, Corrin, and Lucina all getting the axe to make room for ONE more popular entry, and a protag of a new game.
This is ofc assuming a cyclical roster like you suggested. And also assuming that the new protag isn't very generic or just flat out not viable at all. If that's the case though, it'd come down to either Lucina OR Robin getting the cut. So, take that as you will. I wouldn't be so certain that Robin is a GUARANTEED shoe in for a 5th entry. Looking at the overall ranking, and acknowledging the fact that the FE part of the roster will very likely see heavy cuts, I'm not as confident as you that Robin would return, but rather he's more of a "maybe" as he kinda falls in the middle.
for Jigglypuff, Daisy for Peach, and Claus for Lucas.
