I have posted in what situation we may be when it comes to Smash for Switch, however I think we might discuss what Sakurai is potentially doing, and what it may mean for said Smash.
So Sakurai said in early 2016 fter the release of the final Smash DLC wave that he was taking some "extended vacation", but what does that mean? A few weeks? Two months? Half a year? There were a few balance updates after the release of the final DLC, one in March and the other in June, but to which extent was Sakurai involved in this?
He also said as early as January 2016 that his next project has been decided already. Well actually, I kind feel like said project is not guaranteed to be Smash Bros.
We may look at what he worked on in the past to set precedents:
Arcana (1992) — Special thanks
Kirby's Dream Land (1992) — Director, designer
Kirby's Adventure (1993) — Director, designer
Kirby Super Star (1996) — Director
Super Smash Bros. (1999) — Director
Kirby 64: The Crystal Shards (2000) — Voice actor (King Dedede)
Super Smash Bros. Melee (2001) — Director
Kirby: Nightmare in Dream Land (2002) — Director
Fire Emblem: The Binding Blade (2002) — Special thanks
Kirby Air Ride (2003) — Director
Kirby & the Amazing Mirror (2004) — Special advisor
Meteos (2005) — Designer
Kouchuu Ouja: MushiKing -- Greatest Champion e no Michi (2005) — Designer
Super Smash Bros. Brawl (2008) — Director, scenario writer, voice actor (King Dedede)
Kid Icarus: Uprising (2012) — Director, scenario writer
Super Smash Bros. for Nintendo 3DS and Wii U (2014) — Director, voice actor (King Dedede)
I think we can mostly ignore things like voice acting and special thanks since these imply much less involvement on the games overall compred to being director, designer, or scenario writer. So we can look at what games he worked on between each Smash instalment. Between 64 and Melee he only did some voice acting for Kirby 64, and the time gap between the two is very low. The gap between Melee and Brawl was much longer, and with more game he was involved in too, with two where he was director, two designer, and one special advisor. And between Brawl and 3DS/Wii U there was only KI Uprising.
Since Sakurai said that his next project was already decided before the last DLC wave was even released I strongly doubt he was enthusiast about working on a brand new Smash. Sure, there's the rather short transition from 64 to Melee, but the situation was quite different at the time.
Sakurai wanted to improve upon the rather experimental Smash 64, not to mention there's less content overall than more recent Smash games, making a short development time - barely more than one year - possible (although exhausting according to Sakurai himself). After Melee the series' reputation became established, so it's unlikely that Sakurai may ever want to do a new Smash with the same mindset as when he wanted to make Melee after 64. In the other two cases Sakurai worked on other projects before making the next Smash, and there actually were external incitation to make these new Smash games.
Iwata had influence in Brawl existing in the first place, by announcing a Smash for Wii while it was not even planned,
and he had a similar influence on Smash 4, by announcing it when Sakurai was still working on KI:U. In addition,
Iwata suggested Sakurai to develop a game for the then-upcoming 3DS in July 2008 (which of course happened to be Kid Icarus: Uprising), so not too long after the release of Brawl, and also said that it shouldn't be another Smash game so soon.
Speaking of KI:U, development actually started before the 3DS development kit was even available, thus Sakurai and his team started developping the game on Wii and PC before the release of said kit. I didn't find more exact information about when the game's development started or when the kit for 3DS was made available, so unless someone can give these informations we can only speculate. We have a better idea of the development time for Smash 4 though, not counting all the post-release stuff:
development for it started early 2012, so if we assume development for the 3DS version stopped a few months before its release, then we might have a development time of 2½ years, probably a bit more for the Wii U version. I'm mentioning this because it's relevant if Sakurai wants to work on a project other than a Smash port (since a brand new Smash seems highly implausible anyway), which can give us an idea of when he can start working on Smash after he finishes whatever else he may be working on, and how much time a new Smash game may release after that.
We should keep in mind that Iwata specifically suggested Sakurai to do something other than Smash to not have another game from that series so soon, but the Wii U was not released yet at the time KI:U released. On the other hand the Switch was released barely one year after the last wave of Smash DLC, so the situation is not exactly the same either.
So what data can we extract from all of that?
- Melee was completely Sakurai's own idea, while Brawl and 3DS/Wii U were due to Iwata's influence;
- Iwata's not alive anymore, so it won't be a factor for a potential future Smash;
- Sakurai took the time to develop other games during each gap between two Smash games after Melee;
-
as I explained in my previous post, the 3DS version and the freshness of the DLCs and amiibo made that it's too early to make a Smash Wii U port for the sake of keeping the Switch's momentum similar to Mario Kart 8 Deluxe in its early life.
So what is Sakurai working on right now?
Case 1: a brand new, fifth generation Smash game
Very, very unlikely. The differences in context between the pre-Melee times and today, and the fact it hasn't been announced yet (remember that both Brawl and 3DS/Wii U were publicly announced before Sakurai started working on them) make this almost impossible to believe for me.
Case 2: an enhanced Smash Wii U port
Already more likely than the previous case. This hypothetical case is tempting to be compared with MK8D, which was basically made for the sake of giving momentum for the Switch very early in its lifetime, by porting a popular game from a now dead and irrelevant console and hoping to make it even more popular on the system Nintendo now wants to promote and has a better chance of being successful. But assuming it releases in 2019, then the "give the Switch momentum" case becomes a bit weaker. At that time we can expect the Switch's library to already be fairly wide, however the case is not completely irrelevant if Nintendo sees Smash as a strong system seller and that releasing it sooner than later will offer a unique opportunity at giving it some new kind of momentum the system isn't going to get otherwise. Such a scenario would also imply that Sakurai wants a wider audience to get the full HD Smash experience without having to have to wait too long for it or to not take the risk of releasing it too late in the system's lifespan, or that someone else other than Iwata at Nintendo told him to work on that port. If this is the route Sakurai is taking and Smash for Switch is still a continuation of the fourth generation of Super Smash Bros. rather than something completely new, then it makes sense that it hasn't been announced yet, due to the DLCs and amiibo still making Smash 4 feel somewhat fresh right now. Indeed announcing that a game still in people's mind is going to get a MK8D-like port similar to how Brawl and 3DS/Wii U were announced before we were shown gameplay... it's not what's going to make the fans particularly interested. And describing it as an actual new Smash while it's actually just an enhanced port would be a bad communication move as it would set the expectation bar too high.
Case 3: a non-Smash game
This case would justify making a brand new Smash that starts a new generation, once said non-Smash game is released. The only thing against the idea is that it's basically going to make Smash for Switch release several years from now, which may be late in the Switch's lifespan. While we don't have exact informations about it, I speculate that we could say that KI:U took around 2½ years of development and not be too far from the truth. Assuming development started one year ago, that would mean that said game would be released in late 2018 at the earliest, and that Smash would release even later. Under the conditions of Sakurai working on a new non-Smash game then working on a fifth generation Smash game, we would not get the chance of playing it before mid 2021. That would mean Smash for Switch would release late in the system's lifespan, but I feel like Smash is one of those games Nintendo would rather see be released not later than during the first half of the system's lifespan, due to being an established fan-anticipated series with the power of selling systems. But maybe they're confident enough in their other titles and feel like other games released before it would make Smash unnecessary on the sole base of its system selling power.
Case 4: more than one game at the same time
Nope.
tl;dr Considering the precedents and the unique current context, we could assume there are two likely possibilities:
- Sakurai and/or Nintendo want players to experience Smash HD on Switch relatively early during the system's lifespan. However due to circumstances, it makes sense to not release it too early like Mario Kart 8 Deluxe. This would explain why we haven't heard of it yet, while meaning a Smash Wii U port prior to 2020;
- Sakurai wants to work on something else which means he's not going to work on Smash before quite some time, but that would mean Nintendo is confident enough that they don't need Smash's unique appeal to make the Switch's momentum keeping going on for the few years to come.
This is of course not supposed to be the great Smash truth, it's just a bunch of educated guesses based on claims I tried to source to the best extent possible. For those who have missed,
I explained why I believe Smash being on 3DS too is part of why we haven't heard of Smash for Switch yet in my previous post. Again, can't wait to be proven wrong in the future