Well, let's see...
BOWSAH
What moves or tactics should we watch out for?
Bowser has some cool tricks under the shell, here's just a few that are most noticeable:
-Whirling Fortress: You know that annoying upB ooS option that Marth and MK have? Well, Bowser's got arguably one of the best, due to it's almost entirely safe nature and nasty damage it will do (it'll even kill at higher percents). This thing will be pulled out on many an occasion Bowser is planted firmly onto the ground, and if he's shielding, you better change your spacing while landing from the air, because crossups, fakeouts, all of them don't work very well on a bowser who knows how to flip it on and scuttle away. Luckily, Lucario doesn't have to approach, which helps reduce the impact of this move.
Flying Slam: Also known as the "klaw" etc., it is an aerial grab. It also has autocancel frames on most of it, and can be used to mix up his approach options. In a MU where there's a projectile involved though, some of those options tend to be limited, but you still have to watch out about getting too close to a bouncing boozer, some of his moves will surprise you. A habit that will change in this MU though is shielding aerial approaches. If you aren't fast on your feet with that shield and you don't retreat or do something, he will nab you out of your shield and make you eat 18% or so, which gets you that much closer to getting high in percentage.
-Grab: If Bowser gets a grab on you, you'll be in for some pain unless you jump break. For those who don't know, Bowser basically gets 10 or so frames of advantage out of a ground break, which means unless you're DK, you'll be eating either jab, Flying slam, ftilt, or dtilt, even another regrab if he feels he wants to risk another set. jab, flying slam, and ftilt will usually be used to get some fast damage, or get you off stage for some edgeguarding if he feels he can do stuff, while ground release -> dtilt is an insured killer against lucario in the 130's, even with good DI. Frankly, you'll want to avoid the grab, and if you do get grabbed, try for a jump break. Also, sometimes bowser will try to do ground release -> jab -> sideB, but this is escapable.
-fair: This move is pretty bad news for lucario in early percentages, and is another reason lucario SHOULD NOT APPROACH Bowser. This move actually has more range than marth's fair, except bowser's hurtbox gets extended. That being said, this move is going to make any offensive attempts go sour, because the trade off in percent is horrendous regardless of most of lucario's horizontally oriented aerials (3%-7% vs. 13% is awful, do the math). He'll also try this move for edge guarding, but it won't gimp kill until later percents.
Ftilt: Another defensive move, acts as a landing catcher for pretty much ANY landing within it's range. Be aware it can cancel AS, and it its range is pretty deceptive. Don't use your options predictably when bowser is in a situation to use this move, he'll pretty much win it every time. It's almost a frame trap in its own right.
Bair: This move will be more of a gimp move, if you see it coming, it's way easier to move away and dair stall and try moving back towards the stage than to try to trick it with AD or something, since he has to commit to this move for the most part.
Utilt: another one of bowser's moves ooS that works pretty well, it seems to pale compared to dair even though it has some good range, due to speed and dair's properties. Still a move to watch out for.
Uair: A "hypnokill" move, this move is a nasty early stock ender if you aren't thinking right. This move will only sometimes be use after upB connects or utilt, but if you see it, don't AD, try dair stalling or double jumping, it's windup is deceptive, and it will kill in the 60-70 range reliably if it hits. Be smart within the 2nd jump area above bowser's head.
flame: Mostly used for edgeguarding, this move will hurt if you let him set up for it, although AS will start going through it at relatively mid/high percents uncharged, so that's not too much to worry about. My friend doesn't use flame as much as some other bowsers, but it's going to be a good edgeguard tool vs. a recovery with a more predictable windup. Play smart, and if he does use this onstage (he will occasionally), you'll need to DI away from bowser to get out.
fsmash, usmash: It's surprising that these will work, I wouldn't worry too much if you are fast enough, but be aware that fsmash will sometimes be used as an option if you hang on the edge for too long (dumb player habit to begin with anyway), and you also will want to be aware that usmash has very low endlag, so act quick if you want to punish.
What moves or tactics should we try to enforce in this match up?
Camp: AS may not be the best for getting damage in, but it does what it needs to in a MU like this, pressure and force approaching. AS is actually pretty good in this MU, because Bowser's only real options besides the occasional fanning is shielding, because against a projectile like AS, having an already meh AD and spotdodge/roll is pretty bad to have. Be smart though with camping, you'll only get maybe 2-4 shots at most before he's within SH distance, which is when you'll need to get a little more complicated.
Grab: Yes, we has some pathetic grab range, but you need to bait some of the moves bowser has that has some icky lag, and set up for aerial strings. Grab also helps discourage shielding, but beware since Whirling Fortress can bust grabbing if mistimed, since it comes out faster. Grabs also deal some more tangible damage, and combined with aerials (dthrow pretty much works as a setup regardless of DI due to Bowser's ginormous hurtbox) will get you some damage.
Edgeguarding and gimping: Bowser will not get gimped very often, but take note that fair -> dair strings offstage are pretty much guaranteed because of bowser's hurtbox, and dair if spaced correctly WILL beat upB. I've racked lots of damage on using dair alone offstage when bowser was forced to commit to recovering below. AS is another great tool offstage, it can force some patterns to come out to punish offstage. Also, fsmash if well spaced covers nearly every option bowser has when he's on the ledge, misspace it though, and he can ledgehop klaw you. Having a big hurtbox like bowser's hurts considering fsmash's cone pretty much kills most options anyways.
Spacing fsmash is actually pretty important too on stage, with the sole exception of PS, bowser can do nearly nothing to a tipped fsmash.
I would also recommend again DO NOT APPROACH. Bowser is an ugly snapping turtle, and will gnaw your face off in angry protest if you try it. He's built to be a defensive character, and you're going to have to hop around like Steve Erwin around a croc to get around him in this MU, "sheilas" and "lil' beauties" aside. Don't approach.
Do you feel Lucario has an advantage in any particular scenario of this matchup?
We force approaching, which bowser can't do very well, especially against a projectile.
I also feel we have better options offstage, and will get less damage/killed offstage as opposed to bowser.
We also have good anti-air/punishing string options, which help loads with a character with meh approaching like bowser.
Do you feel the opponent can shut down aspects of Lucario's game?
upB can really debilitate an offensive game, as can most of bowser's options. He's a very solid defensive character, and with that said is going to try to outspace and punish you when you punish, since plan A's "I'm going to hope to get a percent lead and make you try to rush me" isn't going to work.
He also has enough options to surprise and get an early kill. You pretty much have to have a zero margin of error and know the MU to work out against bowser.
Bowser's aerial game also shuts down lucario's pretty badly when directly pitted against each other, but lucario's air game will have plenty of other chances to shine in other scenarios, and if the lucario is smart, playing "dogfight" will be a very rare instance in the MU.
Counterpicks? What to avoid and what to enforce?
I frankly like FD/YI (if YI is a neutral in your area) as neutrals, with smashvillle on the side, PS1 might make for a good neutral too, provided you don't get backed into a wall. BF might be worst, because of Bowser's good klaw hop options and better platform control, plus it mitigates our camping. For CP's, I'd have to say Frigate, Japes , and PS1 are some good ones, and Norfair is one I would avoid.
I frankly believe in 60:40, maybe 55:45 in our advantage at highest levels of play, unfortunately most people don't know the MU at all and do dumb things, Bowser likes dumb things.
I used to believe it was far more 50:50, but that was when people way back when discussed, dare I say it, MINDGAMES in a MU thread.
(seriously its probably the only MU i can give full knowledge on.)
