I think Geno has a really good shot at making it in mostly because of his history with the Smash fanbase. He has been highly demanded for a long time, long before official ballots were a thing, and Sakurai and Nintendo are very much aware od the demand (even if its by a very vocal but small group)
Sakurai is clearly very concerned with please the fans, with this game more than any past Smash game (let's not forget how often he has emphasized how there will never be a roster like this one again) so I think if they were going to get Geno in, now would be the time.
I also don't see Square being as much as a problem with Geno as they are with their other characters. Yes, they own Geno just like the do Cloud of Sora or whoever, however they still can't really use him without Nintendo. That means that tho they have the rights, they can't option those rights to anyone but Nintendo, so they either make a deal or they do nothing and earn nothing.
It's not like Cloud where they can option him out to other companies or save him to use in their own games. If they want to make money with Geno, it will only come from Nintendo and with a game like Smash, they would have nothing to do but basically sign the rights for use. Easy money or no money, so I don't see them being an issue. Music could still be an issue as that would have to go through each composer tho.
As for will Geno be revealed next. I don't really know. If they were planning a double reveal for E3 that later got scraped, I could see them making Geno one of those reveals, which could mean he is next in line. However, if I were following my gut, I would say if Geno gets in it will either be as the last character, or the last character to be revealed at a big event (i.e. planned for next year's E3)
He could still not get in, but if he is I imagine they would make him the last reveal to give the most satisfying arch to the character's history in Smash.
Personally, I don't want Geno more than other characters, but if he got in I would like him and certainly appreciate the journey he and his supporters have been on. If he doesn't get in I won't be bothered much either, but I still have to admit that he has a better chance than most, particularly better than any character who is as obscure as he is.