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Rate their Chances: the DLC Edition. Day: 192: The final day

Erimir

Smash Lord
Joined
Nov 24, 2001
Messages
1,732
Location
DC
3DS FC
3823-8583-9137
You're looking at it the wrong way. [...] they definitely won't stick two characters in a situation where only one or the other, and never both, can make it.
I agreed that talking about a character taking away another specific character's slot (except possibly another character from the same game/series... see: Robin and Chrom) doesn't make sense, because it makes too many assumptions. Namely, it assumes that your favored character was next in line... when it might be quite far down the list.

The assumption that there are limited resources/time/desire is not silly or unjustified. That's the way the world generally works. I see the assumption that they can always just add another character as the one that requires evidence, not the other way around. There are more worthy characters that they could add than they will add; I don't see that as a controversial statement.

Simply put, not working on Roy frees up time and effort that they could use on a different character. I really don't see how this can be disputed.
So much...misdirected anger.
Not really. You're attempting to explain why the factors I think should matter don't matter to the devs, but none of that is actually an argument that I, personally, shouldn't care about them. I'm irritated at how much representation Fire Emblem gets, especially given how I see it as less deserving than, say, DK in pretty much every dimension (including the objectively measurable ones). I didn't like Fire Emblem getting four reps and therefore I don't want more Fire Emblem characters to get in. People like different things than you. Like I said: Get over it.
Anyone who sees this as some *ahem* sword-measuring contest between Nintendo's series, about how many "reps" they "deserve" to have, is completely off base with what we know of how the developers operate.
I think you're the one who's off-base.

http://smashboards.com/threads/rate...cial-group-today.351920/page-58#post-16747675

I actually did the math. Using just sales (on a logarithmic scale, technically) + previous roster (i.e. the bias against cutting veterans) has a pretty decent correlation (R^2 = 0.76) with the number of slots a franchise gets. Why would there be this strong mathematical correlation if I was "completely off-base"? And yes, the new roster has a similar correlation with what the statistics would predict (and it does even better if you exclude the last-minute clones not subject to the same decision process, and the Ice Climbers who were cut for technical reasons, interestingly enough...).

You are arguing based on what appears to be opinion. But when I say franchise sales matter, I have hard evidence. You apparently didn't take me seriously when I said that this was an actual statistical relationship. Not "hearsay."
I'm sure the dev team thinks about it a little, but when it comes to deciding which characters to work on, there are other factors they care more about.
I agree that there are plenty of other factors. But a correlation with R^2 of 0.76 is nowhere near irrelevant.
They did care before about if said character had any important roles recently, but with the Smash Ballot, relevance may not matter any more.
And I already stated in the post you're replying to that the Smash Ballot is a very good reason to think that the factors will be weighted differently for DLC. But it isn't a good enough reason for me to say that now we can completely ignore those factors. Give them less importance, yes. Say that they don't matter, no.
Those first two are key, because they're the exact given reasons why they decided at the beginning of the project that they'd add Robin and not Chrom.
Yes, they added Robin and then not Chrom, which is entirely consistent with number of reps for franchises mattering. Not sure how this argues against what I said.

(Lucina was minimal effort since they had already made her as an alt skin, so she doesn't quite fit into the same reasoning.)
I don't really mind having that over dealing with characters that might feel forced or unlike themselves, put in solely for franchise lip service.
Which is why I specifically said that these are not the only factors! You're beating a straw man.

Reread what I said, and don't assume that when I'm saying sales/slots/reps matter, that this means I'm saying they're the only thing that matters. Especially because I explicitly said they weren't the only things that matter in my post.
Although I have a theory of my own, one that I haven't seen anyone think of before...

I'll explain when his day comes.
Is it that they had initially considered Ryu instead of Mega Man?
 
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Bill Nye

Smash Rookie
Joined
Apr 10, 2014
Messages
21
Ridley
Chance: 10%
As many have stated, Sakurai can change his mind. What's fun about DLC though, is that he might not even have to. With Nintendo managing the poll, I feel that Sakurai likely has less control over the process. I'm not sure if they have seen Bagan's mod because that also helps Ridley's chances a tad. Ridley's fanbase has cooled off, but he's still no slouch in the polls despite Sakurai's statements. With Mewtwo out of the way, I can't see any DLC character that would cause more hype and commotion than Ridley. (except maybe Banjo)

Want: 100%
I've been let down since Melee. Enough is enough.

Nominatoins: Agnes Oblige x 5
 

Fire_Voyager

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Apr 2, 2015
Messages
205
Location
Chile
The Big Purple Space Pirate Dragon
Chances: 20% or lower?
Want: 100%
He deserves, but sakurai is a Bigger jerk, teasing us with him and making it a stage hazard...

The musical trio
Predictions: 30% but I don't give a damn.
 

Pureownege75

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Jun 20, 2014
Messages
229
Location
Gangplank Galleon
Ridley
Chance: 5%
He's got a lot going against him right now. The fact that Sakurai specifically talked about him, and why he isn't in the game hugely hurts him. Personally, I think Sakurai tried to make it happen, but simply wasn't satisfied with the outcome, and he ended up getting reworked into a boss. Plus, he's not even doing all that well in the polls, due to losing a lot of support because of his status as a boss. I never thought I'd see the day when Ridley isn't leading the votes, but here it is. If he were to win, I think Sakurai would reconsider, but as it stands right now, his chances are on life-support.

Want: 85%
He was among my most ratings even before I had beaten a Metroid game, simply because I really like the character, and know that Metroid deserves more than what it has. I think he is definitively the most deserving character to be in Smash, along with K. Rool. Now that I've beaten a game in the series and seen him in action in Project M, I only want him even more, probably my 3rd most at the moment. It's a shame he's in the predicament that he is currently in. I know he's possible, despite what Sakurai says.

Chorus Men Rating: 33%

Nominations
RH Character x3
Themed Stage Packs x2
 

Chalo5000

Smash Lord
Joined
Mar 15, 2015
Messages
1,228
Location
A clover field
3DS FC
0104-1645-4836
Ridley 0%
This might be too late but Sakurai personally said why Ridley can't be in Smash
http://mynintendonews.com/2014/11/20/sakurai-explains-why-ridley-isnt-playable-in-super-smash-bros/
“I definitely know that Ridley’s a much-anticipated name for fans, but if we made Ridley as a fighter, it wouldn’t be Ridley any longer,” Sakurai told IGN in an email interview. “It’d have to be shrunk down, or its wings reduced in size, or be unable to fly around freely.”
Also, he is already a Stage Hazard, Ridley fans are just trying EVERYTHING to make Ridley playable -.-

Want 70%
Sadly, I don't care for this guy
I just want him because in that way a lot of persons will be happy and I'm happy with that :p

Tetra x 5
 

JaidynReiman

Smash Hero
Joined
May 31, 2014
Messages
8,840
NNID
JaidynReiman
Ridley -

Chance: 11%
I can't rate him TOO low because, realistically, he's more likely than Indie's. But there's definitely a slim chance of him happening. The only reason I could arguably see him happening is if Ridley still gets a lot of votes and Sakurai says "f*** it, let's just include him," which I find unlikely to happen.

Want: 90%
I don't care for Ridley as a character, but he's a giant space dragon, what more could you ask for? He's totally badass.


Nominations -
Lip (Panel de Pon) x5
 

TallT

Smash Apprentice
Joined
Mar 30, 2015
Messages
178
Location
Earth
Ridley
Chance 2%

Want 90%
After Sakurai put him as a boss character I really see no point in asking for him, but if he added him in I would not complain.
 

Pega-pony Princess

Smash Lord
Joined
Sep 28, 2013
Messages
1,693
Location
Indiana
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auraoftwilight
3DS FC
2938-6383-8579
Ridley:

Chance: 20% Sakurai has repeatedly stated that he is not going to put him in the game.
Want: 10%

Nomination:

Fiora(Xenoblade Chronicles) x 5
 

colder_than_ice

Smash Lord
Joined
Jan 7, 2013
Messages
1,331
Well this day turned out to be pretty tame. Good job everyone. :)

Ridley
Chance: 1% - Because the Sakurai thinks this is a bad idea for some reason.
Want: 30% - I'd really just be happy for his fans, other than that I've lost interest in him.

Chorus Kids prediction: 2%

Nominations: DLC Music x5

DAY OVER
PLEASE WAIT WHILE I CALCULATE THE RESULTS
 

MatvaradoxD

Smash Cadet
Joined
Apr 13, 2015
Messages
44
Good thing I opened the new post that showed up. I was gonna put in my 2 cents but day's over now lol. Oh well on to the next one :)
 
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TheBeardedPunisher

Smash Ace
Joined
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724
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The air, preferably
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Ridley:

EDIT: Whoops, I didn't see the post saying it was over. Sorry about that.
Chance: 0%
He's already a boss, Sakurai has stated why, there's nothing going in his favor other than requests from fans.

Want: 0%
Nothing has convinced me that Ridley would fit as a fighter. I believe Sakurai made the appropriate decision by giving him the role of a boss since he is an overshadowing, menacing beast. The only thing that would make me change my rating is if Smash or something else creates a mode where you can play as boss characters. A large mode where you can do giant battles in the same vane as regular Smash battles with large boss characters like Ridley. Because he's definitely deserving of a playable role in some form.
 
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Cress!

Keep your chin up!
Joined
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Messages
2,758
Switch FC
2396-9345-5408
I'll be surprised if Ridley isn't lower than Quote for Chance.
 

colder_than_ice

Smash Lord
Joined
Jan 7, 2013
Messages
1,331
RIDLEY
CHANCE: 5.64%
WANT: 61.70%
Ridley's want rating was nearly 11 times bigger than his chance score, at least we can't say there was any bias. Next up we're rating the infamous spawn of the Gematsu leak itself, please rate the Chorus Kids from Rhythm Heaven. Also please predict what score the concept of DLC alternate costumes will get tomorrow.
 

Seanp12

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Apr 21, 2015
Messages
223
As it turns out, Ridley's day wasn't as bad as people thought it would be. As I predicted. I don't suppose I get extra nominations for that prediction? No? Pity.

Chorus Kids
Chance: 1%
If two Ice Climbers are a longshot, three Chorus Kids need a miracle.

Want: 0%
I don't care about them, and unlike a lot of the others, I don't see many people who really want them anyway, so my usual "happy smash fan" factor doesn't really apply here. Most of their steam came from Gematsu anyway.

DLC Alternate Costumes
Prediction: 20%
I have no idea how this one will turn out, but I doubt it, so I'll presume others will too. I really don't know.

Nominations:
Abraham Lincoln (Code Name: STEAM) x1
Concept: Any Star Fox character DLC near Star Fox U release date x4
 
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Moydow

The fairest of them all
BRoomer
Joined
Aug 24, 2014
Messages
10,542
Location
https://experiencepoint.xyz
Chorus Kids
Chance: 5%
Apparently there's three of them. If they couldn't make two Ice Climbers work...

Want: Abstain
Who?

Prediction: when you say "alternate costumes", do you mean as in Olimar vs. Alph, or just re-colours?

Nominations: Phoenix Wright x5
 
D

Deleted member

Guest
Chorus Men

"Ehhh." "Ehhhhh!" "EHHHHH!!!!!!!!!" "Together now." "AHHH!!!!!!!"

Chance: 5%

As evidenced by the presumably real, but outdated Gematsu leak and certain bits of data on the game disc, it's clear that the Chorus Men were planned at one point. Considering the fact that there exist three of them who sing together, we can assume that they would have been a trio in Smash.

I think they're in a worse position than the Ice Climbers at this point. While I wouldn't be too surprised if Sakurai either gives us a solo Nana/Popo or searches for a circumvention to their technical issues, the Chorus Men don't have the same level of popularity as the Ice Climbers to my knowledge, so the effort probably wouldn't be worth it.

Want: 60%

I'm somewhat indifferent as I don't have firsthand experience with the Rhythm Heaven series, though I might give it a shot one day.

Prediction: DLC Costumes - 55%

Nomination: Simon Belmont x5 *Moonwalks on stairs*
 

Delzethin

Character Concept Creator
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Mar 23, 2012
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3,972
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St. Louis, MO
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Delzethin
If I came off too strong before, I apologize. I don't get to legitly debate with other people very often, you know? Especially with how most of my family acts...

The assumption that there are limited resources/time/desire is not silly or unjustified. That's the way the world generally works. I see the assumption that they can always just add another character as the one that requires evidence, not the other way around. There are more worthy characters that they could add than they will add; I don't see that as a controversial statement.

Simply put, not working on Roy frees up time and effort that they could use on a different character. I really don't see how this can be disputed.
You're on point there. One of my big problems with the idea is that there are other, more compelling characters they could be devoting time to instead. It's not a matter of slots, though, at least not to any significant degree.

Not really. You're attempting to explain why the factors I think should matter don't matter to the devs, but none of that is actually an argument that I, personally, shouldn't care about them. I'm irritated at how much representation Fire Emblem gets, especially given how I see it as less deserving than, say, DK in pretty much every dimension (including the objectively measurable ones). I didn't like Fire Emblem getting four reps and therefore I don't want more Fire Emblem characters to get in. People like different things than you. Like I said: Get over it.
I don't have anything against you for disagreeing with me. I just feel like you--as well as too many others--are putting too much focus on the wrong things. Sales may matter to an extent, but from what we've heard and what characters we've gained, uniqueness and moveset potential seem to be more important in this game.

I think you're the one who's off-base.

http://smashboards.com/threads/rate...cial-group-today.351920/page-58#post-16747675

I actually did the math. Using just sales (on a logarithmic scale, technically) + previous roster (i.e. the bias against cutting veterans) has a pretty decent correlation (R^2 = 0.76) with the number of slots a franchise gets. Why would there be this strong mathematical correlation if I was "completely off-base"? And yes, the new roster has a similar correlation with what the statistics would predict (and it does even better if you exclude the last-minute clones not subject to the same decision process, and the Ice Climbers who were cut for technical reasons, interestingly enough...).

You are arguing based on what appears to be opinion. But when I say franchise sales matter, I have hard evidence. You apparently didn't take me seriously when I said that this was an actual statistical relationship. Not "hearsay."
I agree that there are plenty of other factors. But a correlation with R^2 of 0.76 is nowhere near irrelevant.
And I already stated in the post you're replying to that the Smash Ballot is a very good reason to think that the factors will be weighted differently for DLC. But it isn't a good enough reason for me to say that now we can completely ignore those factors. Give them less importance, yes. Say that they don't matter, no.
Props for doing that research. There is a correlation there...but we can only speculate what it means. Larger, higher-selling series tend to also have more characters in places of prominence, do they not? Or maybe those characters were just higher priority than any that fell short of the initial cut (as Mewtwo and Lucas likely were).

As you must know, correlation doesn't equal causation.

Yes, they added Robin and then not Chrom, which is entirely consistent with number of reps for franchises mattering. Not sure how this argues against what I said.
But Chrom wasn't passed on because Fire Emblem had enough "reps". They passed on him because they didn't feel like he'd be unique enough compared to Marth and Ike, while Robin would be very unique while also showcasing parts of Fire Emblem that Marth and Ike didn't. That one's a false positive, basically.


Is it that they had initially considered Ryu instead of Mega Man?
Not that one, actually. That one's been brought up before. Jury's out on that one as much as any other theory, including mine.
 
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Serell

Smash Apprentice
Joined
Apr 13, 2015
Messages
169
Chorus Men..
Chance: 5%
They were planned at some point. Were probably scrapped extremely early.
Want: 0%
No.

DLC alternate costumes prediction: 58.7%
I presume you mean things like Shulk's bathing suit and ZZS's two piece? And possibly Bowser Jr.'s koopalings?
Sakurai said he has interest in doing other DLC outside of characters, and we already got new costumes for Miis, so I don't see why not, and it would be pretty cool.

Nominations: Ray (Custom Robo) x5
 
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JaidynReiman

Smash Hero
Joined
May 31, 2014
Messages
8,840
NNID
JaidynReiman
Chorus Kids -
Chance: 5%
In the very, very, very, very, very, VERY slim chance they were in development. Sorry, the fact that there's data in the disc for Rhythm Heaven does NOT mean in any way, shape, or form it was Chorus Kids. And Gematsu has proven unreliability. Some info was correct, but much was wrong as well.

Want: 0%
Can't stand this addition.


Predictions -
DLC Costumes: 60%

I think it'll get mixed ratings, but more high ones than low.



Nomination -
Lip (Panel de Pon) x5


Lol... I posted my rating for Ridley just in time for it to end and go on to the next day.
 

Zerp

Formerly "ZeroSoul"
Administrator
Writing Team
Joined
Sep 28, 2014
Messages
4,683
Location
South Carolina
:disco:Chorus Kids:disco:
Chance: 17% While somewhat notable and arguably iconic of Rhythm Heaven, they are going to be a technical nightmare for Nintendo to add, and they aren't popular enough to truly secure a spot.
Want: 10% I really couldn't care less about them.
Nominations: 5 x Magolor
Predictions: 25%chance for DLC Costumes
 

Cress!

Keep your chin up!
Joined
Apr 7, 2015
Messages
2,758
Switch FC
2396-9345-5408
The 3 Things from Dr Seuss
I know there's only 2, but they are still things.
Chance: 15% if all 3, 70% if just 1/Marshal
They wouldn't HAVE to function like Ice Climbers, but they still don't have a high chance together. Alone, I could see that working out well. New game coming out in Japan soon (hate them for it) gives a higher chance. Also Gematsu made their popularity skyrocket, so Rhythm Heaven is probably getting a nice amount of votes, whether it be Chorus Kids, Marshal, Karate Joe, etc.

Want: 80%
I like music games, okay?

Give Lana her daily 5 votes please. :)
 

CaptainAmerica

Smash Master
Joined
Aug 21, 2014
Messages
3,089
Location
New York
NNID
TomOfHyrule
Chorus Kids

Chance: 15%
Yeah, they were ID'd in the Gematsu Leak...and that's about it. I have a feeling they'd work similarly to DHD, being three characters who move and act as one. But still, them? The Rhythm Heaven series really doesn't have a unifying character since it's really just a series of minigames, and I fail to see what makes them so special compared to the others in there. Frankly, RH would work great as a stage or assist trophy, but as a playable character? Nah...
Want: 0%
See above. The only RH game I played was Fever, and that was fun while it lasted (and I sucked but that's a different issue...). But I feel like there are even so many more interesting RH characters than them. They freak me out a bit - not a fan in the slightest.
Prediction: Costumes
Chance: 32.5%, Want: 75.5%
Nominations:
New concept - 3DS stages on WiiU x5​
 
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Aetheri

W/E happens don't panic...
Joined
Jan 13, 2015
Messages
8,847
Location
ZDR
Switch FC
SW-3397-5428-2304
Three, big headed, white, naked, kids, wearing bowties, that can sing....sounds like fun!!

Chorus Kids

Chance: 5%
I'm assuming we're rating these guys as an Ice Climbers like tag-team amirite? If so then It ain't happening...Ice Climbers were characters that had some major issues with the 3DS's limitations, and that's with just two characters. Add one more character to that plus some bonus obscurity and their chances seem to plummet...Sure there was data in the game previously but they got cut probably for the same reason the Ice Climbers got cut...

There's also the fact that there's not a lot of people asking for them...I'm sure they are not going to be a priority...

----

Want:1%
Don't really care too much, haven't played Rhythm Heaven and I probably won't because it doesn't really appeal to me all that much...

----

Prediction: 71.5%
Concept: DLC Alternate Costumes
Oh goodie another Concept, I feel this one will get decently high marks because I personally see no reason why we won't get any, considering we 'kinda' already do, with Link and Megaman Mii costumes already available...especially if bundle packs are going to be a thing...

----

Nominations:
Wolf Link & Midna x5
so little colour this time....Damn Chorus Kids with their white-ness....at least these two can provide a bit of colour at least...they'd be a better tag team too....
 
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DNeon

Smash Lord
Joined
Feb 24, 2015
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1,003
Location
Brisbane, Australia
NNID
D_Neon_Lamp
Gotta love the polarity of the Ridley support. Only Want votes I saw were 80-100% or 0-15%, guess there were more 100s than 0s to get a 60% want rating.

Chorus Kids

Chances: 35%

Hard to get past the leak, but if it wasn't for that then I'm not sure if their chances would really be that high at all. It could happen, at very least a Rhythm Heaven character is probably at a 55% chance IMO, so...yeah...

Chorus Kids
Chance: 5%
Apparently there's three of them. If they couldn't make two Ice Climbers work...
They also got a Duck Hunt Duo in as well. The thing that made ICs impossible was that one half of them was being controlled by AI. If the chorus kids just work together for their attacks then there's no problems.

Want: ...

I don't know, don't really care. Can't be bothered to figure that out.

DLC Costumes

Prediction: ...

Also don't really care. Is this alts for characters? or Alph/Daisy style? I don't know, it's possible.
 

sogeki

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Mar 19, 2015
Messages
315
Location
Chicago, home of pizza and Italian beef.
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MexicanSaiyan
Chorus kids: Chance: 45%. Weren't they in development at one point?
Want: 99%.

DLC alternate costumes prediction: 95%
Nominations: DLC characters cross promoting new games x5
 
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Yomi's Biggest Fan

See You Next Year, Baby
Joined
Sep 20, 2011
Messages
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Chicago, Illinois
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Time for this itsy bitsy spider to kept the rhythm of the flow for these white triplets.

Chorus Men

Chance: 5%

These guys were so close to being playable if that hidden data file and the so controversial Gematsu Leak is anything to go by. These guys would always stick around if we take a look at most of their appearances (Rhythm Heaven, Wario, ect.), so I can see them being original planned a playable trio. But alas, they would eventually be proven low priority due to the same programing problems that kept the Ices from being playable. Then there's the fact that there are much more reoccurring and major characters that could have been used instead like the Tap Girl (Or Rhythm Girl as some of you would prefer) and Karate Joe. Did I forget to mention that they wouldn't get that much support in the ballot along with the fanbase having a severe dislike of any character from the leak that didn't make it (Hellooooooooooooooo Chrom)?


Want: 60%

Rhythm Heaven is a fairly popular game with a HUGE following in Japan and its own arcade port developed by you guessed it ... Sega. I can see the series being notable enough to have a stage or playable character in the future since it would provide an interesting rhythm gimmick in their playstyle. While I would prefer Karate Joe and Tap Girl, I wouldn't mind these adorable little guys making the cut in a future Smash title.

Prediction: DLC Costumes - 45%

Nomination: Princess Daisy x5
 

AlphaSSB

Bring Back Star Fox
Joined
Jun 19, 2014
Messages
2,752
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United States
3DS FC
0018-1370-8449
Switch FC
0691-1639-9303
CHORUS KIDS
Chance: 25%
- I heard something about them being considered for Smash, so it's not entirely impossible

Want: 0%
-
...Meh

Prediction: DLC Alternate Costumes - 90% Chance/85% Want
- Note, my prediction does not reflect my opinion

Nomination: Wolf Link/Shadow Wolf and Midna x5
- Werewolves are cool
~
I love how everyone thought that today was going to go to hell because Ridley was being rated, but the ones from the day before were 8x more salty about it. At least noone went on a rampage again, saying that we'll just "...cry some more like always" because of how "...pathetic..." we are and how it "..goes to show how pitiful people can be" for simply not wanting the character.
 

BKupa666

Barnacled Boss
Moderator
Joined
Aug 12, 2008
Messages
7,788
Location
Toxic Tower
Dang, missed Ridley. Would've given him 2% chance and 100% want. I hope people keep voting for him even if he has no chance for DLC, since it lets the developers know that the fans don't like the pitiable, pitiful excuse for a boss he was this time around.

Chorus Kids/Men:

Chance - 7.5%
Depends on whether they were ever planned, whether the factors behind their cut got resolved (presumably difficulty related to there being three of them), and whether there are any packages they could put them in with more desired characters, since no way would they try putting them out solo. They epitomize the sort of bandwagonry that has consumed this fanbase, where if you're leaked or in a new game (especially if it's made by Sakurai), you're a shoo-in and, thus, the recipient of a spontaneous fanbase who will tell anyone who will listen about how you've always been a great choice, how your series has always been so iconic, etc.

Nowadays, Chorus Kids/Men are mainly brought up by people who insist that the ballot is a complete sham, and no characters remotely wanted by online fans will ever happen because Nintendo will just throw in random characters and use the ballot as justification. As a money-making company, Nintendo isn't nearly that stupid, despite whatever mishaps people will point to as proof that "anything can happen." The nonzero score I gave here is indicative of how likely I find that scenario to be.

Want - 1%
Rhythm Heaven would work great with a stage and music, but I don't want to see a character, and if there's got to be one, make it the Wrestler.

DLC Alt. Costumes Prediction - 78.5%

Nominate DLC Music x5
 
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Smashoperatingbuddy123

Smash Legend
Joined
Jul 16, 2013
Messages
10,909
Chorus kids

Chance 48%

It would have ben 50% but the missing 2% is due to thr other possible rythem heaven reps

Any way the gemusatu was correct the whole time
(but you were all nuts to conclude that all of the characters in that rumor where the only ones left, via:4bowserjr::4darkpit::4duckhunt:)

But there was a hack in the file of the wii u version they're was a rythem heaven rep spot found so it may have ben them

But mainly its high is DLC is a thing and japan + us is highly requesting a rythem heaven character in smash.

The competition is rythem heaven girl, the kung fu guy, the wrestler.

Want 80%

I would much rather have the kung fu guy.

Predictions

DLC alts: 80-90%


No, but you DO get extra nominations for the Ridley predictions, as do @Kalimdori, @ Smashoperatingbuddy123 Smashoperatingbuddy123 , and @[Obnoxshush/Dasshizer].
Oh cool i can do 10 nominations now, so with that said

Nominations

Ryu 10x
 
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smileMasky

Smash Ace
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Chorus Kids
Chance :11%
rhythm heaven is very under represented considering it's big in japan but why the score? I can say because having these 3 guys as the rep is not what a lot of people expect and making it like the ice climbers would be bad for the 3ds to handle I would rather just have 1 of the kids instead the whole band. or Karate joe or the "mascot" marshal. though I do agree there needs to be a RH rep.

Want: 45%
gots my peek interest but not as much for me to fully support

Nomination.
5x Ninten
 

Mikegamer0608

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Chorus Kids

Chance: 1%
Want: 0%

If Sakurai couldn't get the ice climbers to work these guys ain't happening either also never been interested in the Chorus Kids.

Nom: Ryu x5
 
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Strider_Bond00J

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Chorus Men:

Chance: 9%
If the Chorus Men are going to become playable, it might be because they were planned in the initial game, but they could have faced the same technical difficulties as the Ice Climbers, so they had to have been cut at the same time according to the files. Without Gematsu or PushDustIn's findings, I doubt many would have considered them, so getting in the Ballot would be very difficult for them.

Want: 45%
I know I've only seen 'Glee Club' on YouTube and only played Beat the Beat - Rhythm Paradise (Rhythm Heaven Wii), there is merit in seeing the Chorus Men becoming playable for what they're worth - One of Nintendo's wackiest IPs and one specifically dedicated to rhythm and music. I'd love to see the Chorus Men or anyone from RH as a playable representing character for the series, but if they have a minimal chance in the ballot, then I'll wait for the next game.
 

Erimir

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Chorus Kids

From my perspective, the only thing they have going for them is the Gematsu leak. And we don't really have the full story on that. It seems plausible it was some inside info... quite outdated inside info, given that it had Chrom on there.

One possible explanation for that is that the Chorus Kids died when the Ice Climbers died. In that case, I don't see them getting in. It would be enough work to get the ICs to function.

Another is that the Gematsu leak was simply wrong. If that's the case, I don't really see much argument for them at all.

But who knows, maybe they would be. It's also possible other Rhythm Heaven characters would get in, or get more votes on the ballot, yada yada. We also don't really know how many DLC characters are already planned vs. they won't start working on until after examining the Smash Ballot.

All in all, they don't seem likely to me.

Chorus Kids chance: 4%
Chorus Kids want: 15%
No thanks.

Nominations:
Simon Belmont x5

@ Delzethin Delzethin
I don't have anything against you for disagreeing with me. I just feel like you--as well as too many others--are putting too much focus on the wrong things. Sales may matter to an extent, but from what we've heard and what characters we've gained, uniqueness and moveset potential seem to be more important in this game.
Which is fine for Robin, whatever. But doesn't really apply to Lucina and Roy, sorry. If Fire Emblem were getting a spear-user or one of the more unique units in the game, this would matter. But that's not who we're getting, because FE makes its main characters almost exclusively swordsmen. And the fact that, you know, the series that are being neglected in favor of FE aren't lacking in characters with those attributes. I mean come on, Roy is not beating out Krystal, Ridley, Dixie Kong, K Rool, Ghirahim, Tingle, Impa, Isaac, Aeron, Saki or even Wolf in those attributes.

You keep replying as if anyone is suggesting add a lazy DK clone (like Kiddy Kong) just to increase DK's reps. 1. Other series aren't that shallow while FE is uniquely deep and 2. we haven't really seen FE's full depth as far as uniqueness and moveset potential, and Roy certainly isn't going to change that.

The fact that FE is getting so many reps while not even making much use of its potential for unique and interesting move sets makes it even worse!

And I didn't just say sales... I also mentioned critical acclaim, importance to Nintendo/video game history, influence, etc. And of course, I also care about which games I like more.
Props for doing that research. There is a correlation there...but we can only speculate what it means.
I made that model well before Smash 4's roster was completely revealed, and only used data from the previous games as input. And as I said... the correlation is even higher when looking at the Smash 4 cast. It actually did pretty well at predicting, not just overfitting to a small data set. It's not really that mysterious to interpret.
As you must know, correlation doesn't equal causation.
That is correct, but strong correlations do tend to have causes, unless you think this is a pattern that has held up over all the Smash games completely by accident.

Are you suggesting the causation is mostly in the other direction? Because I find that implausible.
But Chrom wasn't passed on because Fire Emblem had enough "reps".
You don't know that if, given significantly more resources, they wouldn't have included Chrom (i.e. only a certain amount of space could be devoted to FE, so he was cut). You also don't know whether if Fire Emblem: Awakening had sold 15 million copies, that they wouldn't have included Chrom. The point was that regardless, this can't really be held up as evidence against my argument that sales matter. It is irrelevant at best.

The more important point is that across the few dozen Nintendo franchises and four Smash Bros iterations... sales seem to matter. This is not a point based on one instance in one game.

And no, I don't expect Sakurai to come out and say that their roster decisions are based on which series sell more even if it is true. I don't expect him to reveal their full thought process, because not all of it is the fun, creative stuff, some of it is just business, because they are a business. But yet, the correlation is revealed if you look at the numbers.
 
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Toon612Link

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Chorus Kids
Chance: 20%
Want: 15%
Never played a rhythm heaven game.

DLC Costumes Prediction:
60%

Nomination:
Tetra (The Legend of Zelda) x3
Elma (Xenoblade) x2
 

4theRECORD

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I still say Marshal was the one meant in the leak, if it was ever true.
Chorus Kids (Rhythm Heaven)

Chance:5%
I don't want to offend any fans by saying this, by I don't think they have much of a chance at all. Not that they're not recognizable or anything, but other characters like Karate Joe and Marshal have a bit more recognition as representing Rhythm Heaven. Also, they would work as a trio character, but when Ice Climbers have a hard time working...Yeah, not happening.

Want:15%
I perfer Marshal, but I do like Rhythm Heaven and would want a rep for the franchise. That's all.

Predictions:
DLC alts:85%
I'm honestly expecting this myself.

Nominations:
Lip (Panel de Pon) x5
 

FancySmash

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Chorus Kids/Men: The Jigglypuff Climbers (because they sing, and they are a team, eh, eh?)

Chance: 5% - As stated several times before, if they were having difficulties getting the Ice Climbers to work, does this group really have a chance, even if they were planned before. Sure, we have sneaky spirits in Smash Run, but we also have polar bears. Also, getting the Ice Climbers to work seems more likely. There are only two of them compared to three. I do know that they were in the Gematsu leak as well, but we don't exactly see Chrom in Smash, aside from Robin's final smash.

Want: 0% - Nope, sorry, no. I'll admit, they might be unique (unless, as the nickname I humorously made for them actually turns them into a tag team of Jigglypuffs, but that would just be weird), but if we were to get any tag team character in Smash, I'd much rather have the Ice Climbers back. Rhythm Heaven seems to be an obscure title anyways, and I don't think these guys have that much of a request to be in Smash.

Predictions: 56% - DLC costumes? I definitely want to see this as a possibility. Maybe certain characters who have little chances of getting in can get in this way.

Nominations: This is the last Smash Bros. X5
 

JBRPG

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Chorus Kids

Chance 0%
It was already discussed as a potential fighter through hidden code, but scrapped

Want 0%
Although I do not care about whether they show up, but the conductor is required to summon them. I believe they would be better suited as an assist trophy.

Prediction - Alternate costumes 50%

Nomination: x 5 Tamagon (Devil World) - I have recently made a support thread
 

Bebe Mignon

Smash Ace
Joined
Jun 7, 2014
Messages
809
CHORUS KIDS
Chance: 0%
Want: 10%

Kind of indifferent to the Chorus Kids, but I do think they would be a unique addition to the Smash roster. It seems that the devs attempted but failed to figure out a way to include them in the 3DS version like the Ice Climbers. Either that or I'm just spouting out random nonsense. Don't care, flip muh hair.

CONCEPT OF DLC ALTERNATE COSTUMES
Prediction: 73.67%

NOMINATION
Elma x5
 
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