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Our boy.: 97%.
Yes, that high. Why you ask, let me tell you.
From what I've seen, Roy has some of the most fan votes out there. So if Sakurai does put a character in by votes only, Roy is one of the top contenders. Plus, I heard he even has his own support website, so, yeah.
Alright, so if Sakurai doesn't declone him, then he will be extremely easy to make, not to mention quick.
Second, we found his sound files. SOUND FILES PEOPLE. This could be a hoax though, so that is why I didn't give him the extra three percent.
Also, if Sakurai does decide to declone him, people won't complan about another Marth, so that's good as well.
Want: 80%.
Ridley Prediction: 11.5%.
Nominatons: Concept: DLC characters coming out to cross promote new games.
This should be fairly obvious. Roy, despite what some naysayers would like to say is one of the most requested veterans to return to the Smash Bros series. At one point of time, Roy was even #2 in a Japanese poll at one point of time mind you the only character in that poll that was more requested then him was Mewtwo and given the humongous popularity he has, that's a HUGE feat to accomplish. Even after Sm4sH's release when people were of the assumption that Lucina took Roy's spot, he ended up being Top 5 on a Japanese DLC poll which is amazing considering many thought he wasn't going to make it. Given all the above, it wouldn't be a stretch to say that even without the leaks take in to consideration, Roy's chances were already extremely high. Now that their are the leaks to back up his chances, it's almost a given that he'll return in Sm4sH. The only reason why i'm not giving him 100% is because I only give that percentage to characters that are officially confirmed by Nintendo.
Since i'm addressing Roy's chances, I though it would be appropriate to mention the brilliant "reasons" naysayers like to come up with in asserting that Roy can't return to Smash...
"being in the game means can't join" Is it really that friggin hard to add the word "Koopa" after all the Koopalings first names? (i.e. Roy Koopa, Morton Koopa) Why people act like this is such a huge deal I just don't know.
"already has the spot of Marth clone so can't return"
And Sakurai would want to create another direct clone of Marth and charge money for the character? I guess being revamped is out of the question by default here (and before anyone mentions Mewtwo and/or Lucas, both of those characters had no reason to be revamped like Roy does).
"took 's spot in Brawl and is his replacement. He also has a similar Neutral B to him so Roy can't return"
Ike was never intended to replace anyone. He's a unique standalone character and that's just it. Further backing this up is the fact that Roy has left over data in Brawl clearly showing he was going to return.
"was bad in Melee so he shouldn't be included in the game"
While this isn't something I see on a frequent basis, I thought it was stupid enough to warrant me mentioning here.
I guess Sakurai forgot to cut from the game as well.
"Roy had bad stats in his own game so why do people even want him back in Smash? Why wouldn't you choose someone like Hector or Ephiram (cough OHKO Lord's cough) to be in the game instead?"
Geez I dunno, maybe it's because I don't use stats as the be all end all factor in determining if a character can be in Smash Bros. From what I recalled, wasn't all that great as a PKMN in the games she was in but she's still a fan favorite in the Smash community. Personally, while Roy does lack in stats quite a bit in his game, I don't think it's as severe as some people make it out to be. Not only that but Roy has a badass promotion albeit it being late in the game that makes up for whatever shortcomings he had.
And the hell is with people labeling him as "bland"? Sure, like a lot of FE characters Roy is a bit vanilla so to speak but he's anything but bland. He's a lord who uses his brain over brawn (which I think a lot of people deliberately ignore for the sake of being ignorant) and has a overall likeable personality in the game (i.e. choosing to fight with his comrades in the front lines instead of letting them fight for him).
Hector and Ephiram, while good characters themselves aren't as iconic in their respective games as Roy is. With Hector and Ephiram, they were only the main focus of their games for a portion of the game (in both of their stories, they share the role of main protagonist with another character(s)) while Roy was the main focus of his game throughout his entire story. He's also instrumental along with Marth in making the FE series what it is today and I think a lot of people need to take that in consideration.
Now, for my Want...
Want: OVER 9000%!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!...............rly tho, 100%
Well, seeing as I can't give a want rating higher than 100%, i'll just leave it at that number. Roy has been one of my most requested characters along with YLink and seeing him return would really be something. Only thing is though I want him to return with his Awakening attire and a decloned moveset (I made up one myself so it shouldn't be hard for Sakurai to come up with one).
Prediction
Spikey Purple Dragon Dude Who's Deconfirmation Status Doesn't Let Him Have A Support Thread Which Really Gets On People's Nerves Even Though I'm Rather Neutral Towards Him
(AKA Ridley): 30%
Nominations Bomberman X2
Young Link X2
Pichu X1
First off, only a minority of Western Fire Emblem fans have played the Japan-only FE's, so their opinion is basically insignificant, especially considering Western lord popularity is primarily based off how well the character can solo the map.
Second, in Japan, the Japanese FE fans like Roy.
Third, him being among the weaker lords, most of which stems from his absurdly late promotion time, should have no bearing on his worth to be in Smash. I mean Jigglypuff is certainly not among the best Pokemon. Its a stupid flimsy reason.
Fourth, FE6 was among the highest selling games in the series in Japan, fourth highest of a series of 13 games. Its also among the highest regarded amongst the Japanese fanbase, which unlike the West, did receive all the games in the series properly. Even amongst the few Western FE fans that have played Japan-only FE's, the only Japan-only FE that is more popular is FE4.
Fifth, Roy is even more highly requested amongst Japanese fans than even Western ones. Both Smash and FE fans want him back there. Even in thew West, he is among the Top 10 most popular choices for the ballot.
Sixth, Sakurai had intentions of bringing back Roy since Brawl, just like Dr. Mario and Mewtwo, both of whom already returned.
Seventh, Roy's popularity, along with Marth, was what helped bring the Fire Emblem series over in North America, and also helped introduce many current Japanese FE fans to FE.
Eighth, Roy is the most well known and popular of the GBA lords, the only epoch for FE not currently represented in Smash 4. Marth reps FE on the Famicom, Super Famicom, and DS. Ike reps FE on the GCN and Wii. Robin (and Lucina) reps FE on the 3DS. FE had three games on the GBA, two of which based in Roy's continent, and Roy is the only GBA lord to be the sole lord of his title.
Dude, you literally took the words out of my mouth. I really have come to resent most of the Western FE fanbase for jizzing their pants when they get OHKO lords to carry their lazy behinds for them and them hating FE lords that don't fit that trope. It's not just Roy, it's also Lyn and Leif who also suffer from this as well.
Well... He is a Veteran, he isn't has a remplacement like Young Link (Toon Link is pretty much the "Child and Cartoonish" Link), and of course, the in-game Sounds things are confirmed. Pretty much a sure shot.
Want: 100%
I actually LOVE Fire Emblem Series and especially the Roy's game (Binding Blade/Fuuin no Tsurugi), and I love his fighting style... I want that he has some changes... And that's entirely possible. And yes... I don't give a **** about the "reps" things
Predictions:
Ridley Chance: 2%
Nominations:
Micaiah x2 (Yeah, really doesn't interest me the "reps" thing)
Tiki x2 (I still don't care)
Kos-mos x1
Chance: 95%
Two words. DATA LEAK! Sound files were found showing us Roy's victory theme. This leak pretty much opened up a big can of worms with the likes of Ryu being involved as well, which actually makes the leak seem somewhat questionable since Ryu literally comes from nowhere, Roy on the other hand fits into our, I guess we can call, pattern of returning vets at least...Any leak nowadays should be taken with a huge grain of salt, but this one seems legit so far...no word stating that is has been deconfirmed at all and from what I hear it is from a reliable source (I believe I heard the same guy found files for Hyrule Warriors DLC that turned out to be true but don't quote me on that)...
Another thing in Roy's favour is how easy it is to bring him back...Dr. Mario came back and so did Mewtwo, but, moreso, like the Doc he's a clone of an existing character on the roster...add adjustments here and there slap on a new model and poof insta DLC...nothing easier...not to mention he is highly requested (and hated)amoung fans of the smash community so he'll most likely sell if he arrives via DLC...
So then, why wouldn't it happen if everything seems to be going in Roy's favour?...well the leak could be false for one...from what I hear it is doubtful but still not impossible....also Sakurai...can be a troll, perhaps he's playing with our emotions or he decided to change his mind and Roy was intended but said nah let's try something else......the biggest question is why were both Roy and Ryu's sound files patched into the game to being with? Were they mistakes, perhaps the files accidentally slipped through some internal crevasses? or Were they intentionally put there knowing people like to tamper with these things to find whatever's lurking there so that it get's people talking?...if it's the latter then its definitely working...
Want: 40%
The number of Fire Emblem reps this game has already brought the score down a bit I'll admit, not that I really hate Fire Emblem. Awakening is a really fun game and I'm probably going to get the next one (protagonist turns into a dragon lolwut?), but y'know as both a Zelda and Metroid fan I can't help but think 'ok Sakurai you've had your fun with the swordsmen, now we want a turn as well'...also the possibility that he may end up being a Marth clone (again) is a little bit of a downer, but I can't help but think that if he's coming via (paid) DLC that he'd have some sort of alteration to at least become a semi-clone because of being a second Marth clone as well as people being less likely to spend money on something they kinda already got...but with both Dr. Mario and Mewtwo both having very little changes from their melee counterparts worries me....
With all that said however, Roy was my number 3 in melee behind Link and Falco, since then I have moved on especially with Ike pretty much taking up the exact same role that Roy had so I didn't really miss him as much as I thought, but it will be good seeing him return, kinda like bumping into an old friend if you know what I mean...I wouldn't be too disappointed but I'd be a lot happier if he got the semi-clone upgrade at least...perhaps even his Awakening design to boot...Although I would be even happier still if we got a Zelda or Metroid character first but, y'know, beggars can't be choosers...even though I wasn't begging for a Fire Emblem character but still...
Prediction: 4.5% Ridley
Oh boy....this is going to be a.....
......BIG one!
YEEEEAAAAAAAAHHHHHH!!!! yes I did used to watch that show once upon a time...
Nominations: & Midna x5
get it...because wolf and link and Wolf Link cuz hehe....ok nvm...*hides in a corner*
Roy -
Chance: 99%
I think its fairly obvious he's coming at this point.
Want: 15%
...not that I care. I don't want him at all. The only reason I give him that high is because he does have his fans. Plus he'd just be another easy clone so its not that big of a deal.
Predictions -
Ridley: 10%
I don't think he'll get a high ranking.
Chance: 20%
- The chance score is not at all related to the sound file leaks. They may be there, but we don't know exactly what they mean. It could be trash files, it could be preperation for implementation. We don't know for sure. Aside from the sound files, let's look at Roy's character as a whole. We've established that Sakurai really doesn't care about the number of Reps per series, but I'm sure that he cares about clones. Dr. Mario, Lucina, and Dark Pit were all alternate skins in the beginning. Now, if Roy were to be an alternate skin for Marth or Lucina, then his chance would be higher. Said chance would be even higher if Lucina didn't exist. Another thing I want to mention in Roy Koopa. I dunno, but having two characters of the exact same name just doesn't seem like something Sakurai would do. The announcer says "Mario!" and "Doctor Mario!", and unless he all of the sudden starts saying "Roy Koopa!" for ONLY Roy, it'd just seem so out-of-place that Sakurai wouldn't do it. It's a very minor thing, but nonetheless plausible.
Want: 0%
- Time to make some blood boil, hahaha! So... people like Roy. I don't blame them. Roy was pretty cool in Melee, despite what these 'Tier Lists' say... even though he was a full-on clone... I'd actually be okay with Roy coming back if he was... oh, I don't know... unique. We have Marth. We have another Marth. We don't need three Marths. We don't need three of ANY character. Another strike I have against this clone's inclusion is the fact that we would have FIVE FIRE EMBLEM REPS. I'm sorry... oh wait, I'm not, but Fire Emblem DOES NOT AT ALL as many reps as The Legend of Zelda series. The most Fire Emblem deserves is three, and Sakurai already has pushed past that. Although a cute arguement would be that with Roy as a clone, Fire Emblem would have only three true reps, I still say that five character slots belonging to Fire Emblem is rediculous. If their beinging a veteran back, they should at least bring back a unique one, like Wolf of Snake. The ONLY way I could tolerate Roy making a return would be if he was made completely unique (Or at least a semi-clone) and if Lucina was removed from the roster and placed as alternate skins for Marth, as Skaurai intended and as she should have been. Another thing is that if we HAD to get another Fire Emblem rep, I'd hope that Chrom would get in. Unlike Roy, he actually has potential to be unique. Lol.
Prediction: Ridley - 10% Chance/60% Want
- Note, my prediction does not reflect my opinion
Nomination: Wolf Link/Shadow Wolf and Midna x5
- Werewolves are cool
As for Roy being in the game, I give it a 50/50 chance. I don't want to go as far as to say he's TOTALLY GOING TO BE IN SMASH BROS. BECAUSE SAKURAI MUST LISTEN TO THE CONSUMER or whatever but I do thing he has a fairly decent chance given his appearance in Melee and his significant amount of votes. I'd love to see Roy show up and I think it's pretty likely that we'll see him.
First off, only a minority of Western Fire Emblem fans have played the Japan-only FE's, so their opinion is basically insignificant, especially considering Western lord popularity is primarily based off how well the character can solo the map.
Second, in Japan, the Japanese FE fans like Roy.
Third, him being among the weaker lords, most of which stems from his absurdly late promotion time, should have no bearing on his worth to be in Smash. I mean Jigglypuff is certainly not among the best Pokemon. Its a stupid flimsy reason.
Fourth, FE6 was among the highest selling games in the series in Japan, fourth highest of a series of 13 games. Its also among the highest regarded amongst the Japanese fanbase, which unlike the West, did receive all the games in the series properly. Even amongst the few Western FE fans that have played Japan-only FE's, the only Japan-only FE that is more popular is FE4.
Fifth, Roy is even more highly requested amongst Japanese fans than even Western ones. Both Smash and FE fans want him back there. Even in thew West, he is among the Top 10 most popular choices for the ballot.
Sixth, Sakurai had intentions of bringing back Roy since Brawl, just like Dr. Mario and Mewtwo, both of whom already returned.
Seventh, Roy's popularity, along with Marth, was what helped bring the Fire Emblem series over in North America, and also helped introduce many current Japanese FE fans to FE.
Eighth, Roy is the most well known and popular of the GBA lords, the only epoch for FE not currently represented in Smash 4. Marth reps FE on the Famicom, Super Famicom, and DS. Ike reps FE on the GCN and Wii. Robin (and Lucina) reps FE on the 3DS. FE had three games on the GBA, two of which based in Roy's continent, and Roy is the only GBA lord to be the sole lord of his title.
Want 0%
People need to learn to let some characters go especially ones that are clones that has had their old role fulfilled by someone else. Not every veteran needs to be in every iteration of Smash. Some characters can be one-offs that never return. If we always keep looking behind at what we lost we'll never be able to see all of the amazing new stuff that we can still gain.
It's actually pure facts whether you choose to believe it or not. Roy might not be popular with the niche Western fans that resent any lord that doesn't have OHKO abilities but Japan actually liked his game because their not like those kind of fans.
People need to learn to let some characters go especially ones that are clones that has had their old role fulfilled by someone else. Not every veteran needs to be in every iteration of Smash. Some characters can be one-offs that never return. If we always keep looking behind at what we lost we'll never be able to see all of the amazing new stuff that we can still gain.
The sound files are there and they were found by the same guy who ended up finding DLC data for Hyrule Warriors and Mario Kart 8 and they ended up being in the game. Although I'll touch on some points that are just stupid.
"It could be leftover data!" Data that was just recently put in and is not in the previous patches?
"It's just going to be another Artsy Omni or Gematsu!" That fake leak was nothing but a photoshopped image and is nothing compared to IN GAME data. I'm not saying the Roy/Ryu leak is automatically true, but in game data(recently added) is more credible than a picture posted on the internet.
"But he's unpopular!" Read @ChronoBound
's post debunking that claim.
"I don't like him therefore the leak is fake!" Why should I care about feelings being hurt? You don't like him, don't buy him. And your feelings on a character has no bearing on whether or not a leak is legit.
"He's a clone/ we don't need another Fire Emblem character" Again so what? How many times have I heard the clone bawwing now? Again your opinion not fact.
"There's already another Roy!" How does this have any bearing at all?
I think I covered nearly every complaint about Roy here.
Want: 100%
At first I thought he wouldn't be back ever since Lucina was revealed and ended up being a clone of Marth. Then when I heard the news of Roy's file being found in the recent patch and several other people also confirming it. I became overjoyed and wanting this leak to be real.
I enjoyed Roy in Melee as I always picked him when ever one of my siblings used Marth when we played together. I'm hoping Sword of Seals gets a localized virtual console release in the near future.
Its not. Someone can easily link you to facts such as FE6's sales, its reception on a popular Japanese review site compared to other FE games, the internal files for Brawl, etc.
It's pretty obvious Roy will come back based on the sound file. I do not hold any attachment to Roy and really dislike the fact that Fire Emblem has 5 reps while DK and Zelda deserve more reps. I want to like him, but... Ugh!
Roy (Fire Emblem)
Chance:90%
Now, I'm not one who usually believes in leaks. About 95 % of them are usually utter garbage created by people who want a quick spike of attention to them because of stupid reasons. The Tower of Smash is the most recent of these leaks that come to mind(speaking of which, what happen to it? Did people just realize it was a fad early on and dismissed whatever stuff that followed? I'm not a member of the leak group so I don't know). And me being me, I naturally concluded that this most recent audio leaks were fake bait that were made to prank the Roy fanbase.
Oh god, how times have changed.
With multiple sources confirming the leak's existance and Sakurai's attendance at a Fire Emblem concert, it seems like Roy could really be returning after all. Though honestly, I thought he had more chance than other characters with Roy being a cheap clone they could add in easily. But I am curious as to why he is getting the return faster than Wolf. That just feels wrong on so many levels.
Want:60%
While I haven't mained Roy, I really liked him in Melee and to a lesser extent in PM. I liked his little mechanic and I liked his style and moveset. However, fear of over-representation slightly disturbs me and I hope we're getting a lot of DLC this round if he does come back, I can see hordes of angry fans of other franchise swarming in to pick on the poor boy.
Ridley Predictions: 10%
I...I don't know. On one hand he's probably the most requested Smash character yet, and on the other hand plenty of people are going to vote him down due to his current status as NPC.
Nominations:Lip(Panel de Pon) x5
P.S. Is there anyone kind enough to link me where the unearthed music files of Roy/Ryu are? I can't find the original source anywhere, and the MEGA upload seems to have been taken down.
Roy.... oh Boy
Chance: 85% (Playable)
10% (Some sort of Alt)
5% (Code in Game was scraped... hopefully)
Really don't need an explanation here, he's probably going to be playable, but he could just end up as an Alternate, but that in itself is also unlikely
Want: 1%
Alright, if I had to pick one character to not be in this game, it'd be Roy. I don't like the idea at all, and this is going to be a long one, because it's a topic I'm quiet passionate about. Roy (TO ME) represents pretty much everything I hate. Overrepresentation, clones, bias, annoying fanbase, and undeserving characters.
Overrepresentation: This one's obvious. I simply can't fathom that Fire Emblem, a niche series that is already pushing it with four characters, is going to get another character, while DK, Metroid, and Zelda have all been shafted thus far. It's not right at all. Sakurai may not think in terms of reps, but most fans do, and I'm no exception. A series' success should relate to how it's represented in Smash, and Fire Emblem only finally made a break through after like 12 games, yet will soon have equal amounts of characters to Zelda... one of Nintendo's biggest series. Yeah that's not right if you ask me
Clones: Clones are acceptable when they are added at the end of development at the end of a game, like what happened in Melee and Smash4. But a clone should never be DLC. You can make the argument that he could get de-cloned, but Sakurai has never done that, and I'm not inclined to believe Roy will be the first. It's only made even more frustrating when there is already a Marth clone in this game. If they de-clone him I'll eat my words, but still won't be thrilled about his inclusion, simply less upset
Sakurai Bias: While Sakurai hasn't worked on Fire Emblem, he is a self-proclaimed fan of the series. Roy is probably yet another product of that. I love Sakurai and all, but Smash is a celebration of Nintendo, not a celebration of Sakurai's works and interests. Bias is everywhere in the series, and it shows greately with Roy.
Annoying Fanbase: Roy to me, represents the really foul side of the Smash community, being the Melee elitists. I can guarantee that if he was a Brawl character cut, he wouldn't get half the votes he gets. But he's "The Melee Boy" we need him back. It's annoying to see people who don't ever play the Fire Emblem games, nor know anything about the character, support him in droves.
Undeserving: Roy is a character that, from what I understand, is generally disliked by actual Fire Emblem Fans. His game is considered one of the lesser entries, and Roy is considered one of the weakest lords. A character like that shouldn't be coming back. Mewtwo came back because he's a big deal. He's one of the most popular Pokemon ever. Roy is generally disliked by his series fanbase, and is supported pretty much exclusively by the group I mentioned earlier
There you go, I hate the idea of this character in the game. The sole reason I didn't give him a Zero is because it'd shut up the "ROY"S OUR BOY" People. Some of the stuff I said could be totally wrong to you, but that's what he represents to me, from my experiences in smash discussion/speculation
Honestly, the whole rep business everyone brings up is flat out poisonous. Who's to say a certain character can't join because theirs "too many characters of the same series" in the game? Most of it sounds like entitlement if you ask me. Sakurai said he was going to try to incorporate as much DLC characters as he could so just give it a rest already.
His Royal Highness Roy, the Young Lion; holder of the Sword of Seals, also known as the Binding Blade; Savior of Elibe, and Heir of Pherea; the Son of Eliwood, the Holder of the giant legendary Blade Durandal, a Hero of Elibe; Descendant of the Legendary Champion and Founder of the Lycian League, Roland
Chance: One Hundred Fifty-Three Pieces out of Two Hundred (76.5%)
I, humble Servant of the great Sir Pac-a-Lot do declare that, while his Royal Highness Roy is quite likely, he is in no way a Guarantee. These Anthems of victory do evoke Feelings of certainty among many of his Supporters, yet I err on the Side of Caution Myself, for I feel his Royal Highness Roy may yet appear not as a new Character, but as a new Costume for an extant Character, or, worse yet, that these Anthems are Nothing but Remnants of what may have been, but what shall not be.
Want: Abstain
I, personally, see no Reason to glorify the Dead when we can focus on the Living, yet I respect the Accomplishments of the dead King, and would be happy to see his Followers cheer when they see him fighting yet again on the Battlefield with his Smash Brethren.
Ridley Prediction: Four Hundred Sixty-Nine Pieces out of Two Thousand (23.45%)
Roy, , , or whatever you want to call him (personally, as more of a Mario Fan, is more my boy, but that's just me)
Chance - 80% - I guess as it being a leak, we don't have all the specifics yet. I myself am wondering if Sakurai is going to pull the impossible and give us Roy as a Marth alt (-10%). The thing is if this is leftover coding. While this doesn't seem plausible, we still have to consider it (-10%).
Want: Oh boy. You don't want me to do this. You really don't want me to do this.
...
Fine. Here we go. I'm going to rate him a bit differently than I would others, but it will be fairly short.
5% Bonus - He's a veteran. I do believe that we should focus on bringing back cut veterans with DLC. However, that said, I prefer the unique veterans to a clone. Give me Ice Climbers, Ivysaur, Snake, Squirtle, heck, even Wolf (much less a clone than Roy is) before we get Roy.
5% Bonus - Friends and Fans who want him - I believe this one is self explanatory.
This brings it to 10%.
That's where my want score is going to stay for now. I can't really find myself to really like Roy. I'm sorry. I'm not much of a Fire Emblem fan, he didn't appeal to me in Melee, and there are more veterans I'd want to see before him. Can they declone him? I suppose, but realistically, will they? I don't think so, and that's majorly what bugs me about Roy. Why would I pay for him as DLC if I have Marth and Lucina already in the game for free? If Lucina wasn't in the game, there would be more incentive, but at this point, it's really only going to cater to Roy's fans, which, compared to the entire Smash community, isn't that big a group. Also, there's the argument that Fire Emblem is well represented enough. For where the series is right now, I believe four characters are a good place for it. And while Roy's sweet spot on his blade is situated differently, I don't really count that as being different than Marth/Lucina. Does it help? Yes, it's a step in the right direction, but I need to see more than that difference.
Oh, and about the "Roy is relatively disliked by the Fire Emblem community" argument, I'm leaving it alone. This is where I side with Roy. After all, Jigglypuff is my favorite Pokemon. I know how this kind of thing feels.
In the future, if Roy is changed from a Marth clone, and we see some of the more unique veterans, I'd be more inclined to change my want score for him. But as he is now, I don't really like the idea of a 3rd Marth that I have to pay for.
Prediction: Oh Ridely, it seem's Sakurai just likes to tease you, doesn't he. Well, this ties into the "NPC Promotions" chance, so, I'll go with 24.6%
Nominations:
Honestly, after today, I'm going to hold off on the Roy as a Marth alt for just a while longer. Don't know when I'll start nominating it again, but I need a break from Roy.
X5 This is the last Smash Bros Game.
Honestly, the whole rep business everyone brings up is flat out poisonous. Who's to say a certain character can't join because theirs "too many characters of the same series" in the game? Most of it sounds like entitlement if you ask me. Sakurai said he was going to try to incorporate as much DLC characters as he could so just give it a rest already.
Did not mean anything by it. Just stating when will it ever end when will we stop asking to get back what we lost. I hate to see the community when Smash 5 rolls around considering Sakurai has already stated that he has already reached the limit on the number of characters he can manage. There's already the possibility in the next game not only will we lose clones but completely unique characters too, and if we cannot face losing one clone now whose moveset is already in the game under another character then how will ever be able to handle losing unique characters. Didn't mean to offend in my last statement.
I still have to consider it a possibility, and a large one, because DLC alternate costumes for characters are unprecedented and may be handled differently than ones currently in the game. Along with that, I don't know the way the files work for myself, and I have to rely on others giving me the information rather than myself, which while rather reliable, is not something I can take 100% at face value since it may be an elaborate hoax. And, of course, leftover data and straight rips from other games not making any sense.
Along with that, I'm just not comfortable giving out score that are too high in general. I don't believe in locks.
It would have ben 10% but that was until the sound files were indeed confirmed real,
But to explain
Roy is as requested as mewtwo is. (Sortof)
Files found became a reality in smash
(Hidden announce files found on 3ds = turned out to be wii u exclusive modes.)
(hidden palutena guidence file found = Mewtwo/DLC characters) (not certain if mewtwo exclusive for now.)
This would give fire emblem the same treatment as mario and pokemon (most reps)
Before you scream marth clone (via is a triple clone situation)
And finally vs is going to be a dream battle catergory ( you know like vs or, and vs vsvs)
I personally haven't heard Sakurai's plans with DLC characters themselves...I know he's got a lot planned in terms of other DLC however including new modes
Being about characters is never a good thing my friend. I'm thinking that the 6 pre-determined characters were already finished sometime this year hence their slots being in the games files and that Sakurai will unleash a huge wave of DLC characters from the Smash Ballot in 2016. If people are adamant about having their character in, that's the best channel to seek to accomplish set goal.
So I guess their not in the files at all? If that's the case, then it's safe to say Roy will defiantly be DLC and not some unfaithful alt in the game. The only concern I have is him not being decloned and not having his Awakening attire as his primary attire.
Being about characters is never a good thing my friend. I'm thinking that the 6 pre-determined characters were already finished sometime this year hence their slots being in the games files and that Sakurai will unleash a huge wave of DLC characters from the Smash Ballot in 2016. If people are adamant about having their character in, that's the best channel to seek to accomplish set goal.
Yeah I know...it's just how some circumstances came to be...
I feel fairly confident in Zelda getting something for DLC especially with Zelda U coming next year...namely Impa, Midna's chacnes are a lot lower...(a slight glimmer of hope with rumours of a Twilight Princess remake)
But Metroid is a bit more uncertain with both Ridley and Dark Samus (IMO) being the only logical choices for playable characters and their chances have been pretty much shot by becoming NPC's (and we all know the Ridley situation which it is best to simply wait til tomorrow to elaborate)...though there is hope with a possible Metroid U coming at E3 but we'll see what happens...
To compare with my other ratings. I'm of the opinion that Nintendo will milk the DLC hype train for as much cash as they can, and recent events have only strengthened that notion. As such, I expect plenty of DLC characters.
I will never give a character a 0%. Smash has proven time and time again that anything is possible, and giving a 0% for anything is akin to claiming that you can see the future, and there is no foreseeable outcome where this can occur. And I'm not that delusional!
2 days ago, for Henry Fleming's day, I posted this, as I truly believe that no character is completely impossible to get into Smash 4. Using the same sort of logic, I shouldn't rate a character at 100% either, as no matter how good a character's chances are, there is always some way they may not make it in. Only took me two days and I'm eating my own words...
Chance: 100%
Yes. That's right, I just did it, I put a 100% up for a chance rating.
To be fair, this is more of a 99.99999999999 kind of chance, but it got to the point that there would be no real difference in the rating, so I decided to go all in.
I did my giant tirade about how I know my stuff when it comes to game design on the NPC day, so let's cut to the chase.
Sound files for a victory theme for Roy (and Ryu) were found in the 3DS version when the Mewtwo patch was released. This is a fact, confirmed by multiple, trustworthy sources, Roy (and Ryu!) have ALREADY been partially added into the game.
For most people that's enough to guarantee his chances, but some are a little harder to convince, so let me deal with the arguments against this being legitimate.
A) It could just be leftover data
No. Leftover data is not patched into the game. Leftover data is data that is, well, leftover, cut content, stuff that was in the game before it was finished but cut from the finished project.
This, however, is an actual, official, legitimate leak, akin to the Lucario/Jigglypuff/Ness one from Brawl.
The way games are made is that, every time content is added or changed in the game, they put it into a "build" of a game, after which it is sent to QA Testers to find out if anything is broken in the build. The QA testers report back, the bugs are fixed, and another build is released, repeating the cycle. Kind of like patches, except stuff is patched every couple of hours instead of only a few times a year.
As we already know, is already planned as DLC, and as we know from the ROM's, we have placeholders for 4 more characters after him. Now, in a gaming studio, you don't really have to worry about people leaking out information (People normally want to keep their jobs) so this content is all being worked on at the same time. Sakurai's said as much, that making one piece of new content often leads into another, in his latest interview. This means that these characters (Mewtwo, Lucas, Roy, and Ryu, possibly two more) were all being worked on at the same time.
Now, obviously when you release the build to the public, you need to take out any and all mentions of these secret elements that are going to be revealed at a later date. The entire game is scoured in order to make sure that any and all references to those characters is gone.
Unfortunately for them, someone forgot to take out the victory themes for Ryu and Roy, as well as the placeholders for future characters/stages, and the new Kirby music. Slipped right past QA, who obviously wouldn't notice, and it was shipped in the Mewtwo patch.
Roy and Ryu were worked on and added to the game post launch. They are going to be in the game in some form. But what if...
B) Roy might just be an alt
If this were the case, he wouldn't have a victory theme, like @Swamp Sensei
said. He's getting in as his own character. In addition to that, Sakurai will split an alt into his own character if they have some sort of function that differentiates them from the original character. Roy plays differently from Marth and Lucina, therefore, using Sakurai's own logic, he would not be added as an alt.
But there's always the possibility...
C) Sakurai's just trolling with us
I would believe this, except for the fact that Ryu's files are there too.
If it were just Roy, I could definitely see Sakurai setting this up as an elaborate hoax towards all those pesky hackers trying to ruin the surprise for everyone else. However, he does not own the rights to Ryu or his theme. Meaning that he had to get the rights from Capcom in order to put it into the game. And call me crazy, but I can't see Sakurai going through all the convoluted third party stuff just for an elaborate prank.
Which leads me to my .0000000000000001%....
D) Only Ryu is getting added, not Roy
(Yes, this means I think Ryu is a guarantee)
This is literally the only conclusion I could come up with that would end without Roy getting into the game. Yeah, Sakurai could cut Roy mid DLC development.
But here's my question: Why?
Roy is a highly, HIGHLY requested character. Not only that, he would be incredibly easy to make. He's one of the most logical additions for a DLC fighter, why on earth would they suddenly decide not to include him?
Hence the 100% score
Want: Also 100%
I remember when I first played Melee as a child and unlocked Marth. I had no idea who he was (Thought he was a Zelda character), but I did know that he was freaking awesome. Speaking a cool language that I didn't recognize, deftly swinging his sword, and he could charge up his sword with a glowy purple aura and absolutely destroy his opponent! I loved it!
Then, a while later, I unlocked Roy, who I was ecstatic to discover, played exactly like Marth, but hit harder (Due to me being a child, I couldn't space Marth's tipper at all, but I did know how to get right in someones face and forward smash them), sounded cooler, and COULD SET HIS SWORD ON FIRE AND EXPLODE!!!!!!!!!!!!!
This is a 100% rating purely out of nostalgia blindness, I've barely played Roy's game, I know next to nothing about him outside of Smash. But you know what? I love Roy and his fire sword, and will happily welcome him back into Smash Bros. Is that a good reason to want him back? I choose to believe so, but others might disagree on the account of him being a clone, or too many Fire Emblem reps, etc. Do I care? No! Why!
Yeah I know...it's just how some circumstances came to be...
I feel fairly confident in Zelda getting something for DLC especially with Zelda U coming next year...namely Impa, Midna's chacnes are a lot lower...(a slight glimmer of hope with rumours of a Twilight Princess remake)
But Metroid is a bit more uncertain with both Ridley and Dark Samus (IMO) being the only logical choices for playable characters and their chances have been pretty much shot by becoming NPC's (and we all know the Ridley situation which it is best to simply wait til tomorrow to elaborate)...though there is hope with a possible Metroid U coming at E3 but we'll see what happens...
Yeah, were bound to have at least one Zelda rep. It wouldn't be fair to not have one. Young Link and Impa are the characters that make the most sense for Zelda-related DLC given they have much more of an impact of the Zelda series than most of the requested characters people mention. I'm leaning more towards Impa only due to the fact that YLink won't be able to incorporate his MM masks due to 3DS limitation problems and that Impa has been relevant in numerous Zelda titles. The two things Impa needs though is to not be a Sheik clone (in case Sakurai is thinking of doing that) as well as use her Hyrule Warriors design because I wasn't a fan of the majority of her other appearances.
Metroid doesn't need any DLC for it's series TBH. Other than Ridley (who's deconfirmed), theirs not really anyone in that franchise that's highly requested.
Yeah, were bound to have at least one Zelda rep. It wouldn't be fair to not have one. Young Link and Impa are the characters that make the most sense for Zelda-related DLC given they have much more of an impact of the Zelda series than most of the requested characters people mention. I'm leaning more towards Impa only due to the fact that YLink won't be able to incorporate his MM masks due to 3DS limitation problems and that Impa has been relevant in numerous Zelda titles. The two things Impa needs though is to not be a Sheik clone (in case Sakurai is thinking of doing that) as well as use her Hyrule Warriors design because I wasn't a fan of the majority of her other appearances.
Metroid doesn't need any DLC for it's series TBH. Other than Ridley (who's deconfirmed), theirs not really anyone in that franchise that's highly requested.
Like I said Ridley and Dark Samus are pretty much the only two...I've seen Rundas and Sylux (and god forbid Anthony Higgs), but they're minor characters in their respective games, while I would enjoy Rundas I can't see him getting more than an Assist Trophy and that's really generous...(perhaps we could trade Rundas as an Assist for a Dark Samus DLC...no... I tried...)
There was a victory theme sound file with his name in the game. He's pretty much guaranteed. I'm almost tempted to say:
I'm not gonna lie and say I know what specifically would cause Roy to not get into Smash at this point. Because I don't. But my inherent skepticism just makes me wary of rating a character 100%. Anything really is possible. It's extremely unlikely, but it is still a possibility, nonetheless.
Want: 89%
I said that I would rate every character 90%, but as I've done multiple times in the past now, I changed my mind. The reason I deducted 1% was because I'm tired of hearing people say "Roy's our boy!" and stuff like that. It was kinda cute at first. Now it's starting to get a little stale.
Prediction:
Ridley--9%
This purple dragon's future is bleak.
But if you guys like purple dragons, I know someone who isn't too big for Smash #ShamelessPromotionisShameless
being in the game means 
about characters is never a good thing my friend. I'm thinking that the 6 pre-determined characters were already finished sometime this year hence their slots being in the games files and that Sakurai will unleash a huge wave of DLC characters from the Smash Ballot in 2016. If people are adamant about having their character in, that's the best channel to seek to accomplish set goal.
