Rate their Chances: the DLC Edition. Day: 192: The final day

[Pacack]

a minority of people loved spm, it's sad honestly because spm is quite awesome from the series perspective, but it jsut ended up underrated. I wouldn';t be surprised if I see any hate, it has become a popular opinion.

I would argue that it was a very good game, but that they made a poor choice in deciding to change the formula and keep the "Paper Mario" brand with it. It could have stood alone as its own game, honestly. Because it really was a game of its own.

 

[sogeki]

That... is possible. And while sad it would also be hillarious

This was shofu's idea how dare u

 

[Pureownege75]

BOTH Sticker Star and Super Paper Mario were horrible. They've run the Paper Mario series into the ground. My ratings would have been much higher if it wasn't for that.

You are entitled to your opinion, but calling Super Paper Mario horrible is a bit extreme if you ask me. Yes, Sticker Star is terrible. I haven't played it, but it has blatantly bad game design that is noticeable from a mile away. Super Paper Mario is a great game, but gets a lot of flack for being different. It's good for what it is though.

 

[aldelaro5]

I would argue that it was a very good game, but that they made a poor choice in deciding to change the formula and keep the "Paper Mario" brand with it. It could have stood alone as its own game, honestly. Because it really was a game of its own.

I won;t elaborate much, but I disagree, it really has a lot of the series standards, most of it actually. They simply renewed the same standards.

Sticker star in perspective is another story because not much remained from the series, heck I even wonder if it's an rpg.

Sorry to bring this up, but I felt it was pertinent enough.

 

[Sarki Soliloquy]

Looks like I missed the brunt of the discussion. Looks like there are days where I wish I didn't have something of a life off the site after all. I feel like that'll be important for me with the heavyweight we're rating tomorrow. Yet I have school obligations which are becoming more pertinent to me. But I digress.

Spoiler: Captain Hotcakes's Ratings History (as of 5/3/15)

Character Chance Ratings

1: Wolf - 97.5%
2: Rayman - 60%
3: Snake - 55%
4: Inkling - 50%
5: Sceptile - 45%
5: Krystal - 45%
6: Paper Mario: 44.5%
7: Dixie Kong - 43%
8: Wonder Red - 40%
9: Impa - 40.5%
10: Ice Climbers - 30%
10: Captain Toad - 30%
11: Henry Fleming - 25.7%
12: Quote - 21.5%
13: Shovel Knight - 20%
14: Shantae - 20.5%

Character Want Ratings

1: Shovel Knight - 100%
1: Wolf - 100%
2: Sceptile - 90.5%
3: Shantae - 87%
4: Wonder Red - 86.5%
5: Snake - 85%
5: Impa - 85%
6: Ice Climbers - 80%
7: Paper Mario: 60%
8: Inkling - 30%
9: Henry Fleming - 30.5%
10: Rayman - 25%
11: Quote - 23%
12: Krystal - 20%
12: Dixie Kong - 20%
13: Captain Toad: 5.5%

Concept Chance Ratings

1: Any NPC Becomes Playable - 65.7%

Concept Want Ratings

1: Any NPC Becomes Playable - 50.5%

Abstains (Inactivity)

King K. Rool
Banjo-Kazooie
Isaac

Abtsains (Indifference)

n/A

Who's in the mood for a drinking game? Every time you see the words "rep", "representative", "representation" or any alternate forms thereof, take a drink. Take two drinks if the aforementioned character is from a franchise 4 characters or over in Smash 4.

RATINGS

Paper Mario

Chance - 44.5%: Paper Mario has remained a semi-popular request since the Brawl era. Perhaps the beloved, charming legacy of games, namely the original N64 game & TTYD, have left a remarkable impression on fans of this spin-off series that it has quite a following outside the mainline series. His series has been fairly successful and he has the iconicity of being Mario to sell him to casuals or less-versed gamers.

Paper Mario's presence is not as obscured in Smash as people may believe. The series received a wealth of trophies since Brawl and comes in a big way with a long-await stage and musical tracks in SSB3DS. The character's clearly on Sakurai's radar.

Paper Mario, being regarded as somewhat of a mid-road character, flops a bit in ballot performance than he could be if his potential was more realized to fans on the fringe. So far, I've seen him rack up around Top 10-20 placement in a couple polls. I've also seen a stigma exhibited by many people against the idea of the character. While most of this seems to be out of ignorance or apathy, there's a very prevalent concern about getting three versions of Mario in one game. It's perhaps the uncertainty of how Paper Mario would be handled that prevents him from breaking a solid 45%.

Wow. It's astounding reading past the last few pages to see that repping theory is going all over the ****ing place with this guy. I was expecting that the "Mario has too many characters" card being quite present here (or with any Mario newcomer, really). Before I go on, I too acknowledge that there are reasons why this roster philosophy remains so prevalent over each installment of Smash, especially for a franchise as monolithic as Mario. It feels like these characters start to have this "periphery" feeling after a while, especially since there's only Dr. Mario who doesn't have any real reason to be cut for what playstyle they bring. It's natural you wouldn't want one series to overcrowd the rest.

Repping theory is concerned with maintaining an element of cleanliness in the roster. There's a false balance that would be achieved if all franchises had a certain number of characters fitting for the size of their franchise. Some characters even see spikes in support in order to fulfill these arbitrary slots, whether it be for a perceived pattern yet to be completed or for being major characters within their own franchises synonymous with confirmed characters even when they may not have much uniqueness going for them.

Given the character choices in Smash 4, it looks like Sakurai is disregarding this philosophy. The major franchises are extremely disproportionate in characters. Even some people are irksome with lesser franchises breaking past even 3 or 4 characters. A couple of characters went from alt costumes to clones for the sake of experimenting with mechanics or specials or paying homage to the players of former cut veterans. If Sakurai wanted Dr. Mario to be his own character from Mario, clone or otherwise, then why shouldn't Paper Mario come in to make the fans happy? If the leak is anything to go by, we're getting a 3rd Marth, so that should really say something about alternate character chances if that turns out true.

Besides, the potential for being another Mario clone looks to be significantly reduced if the paper paisano is being handled as DLC, as it would make a more inticing sell for a fresh moveset. I mean, compare how Paper Mario fights and the elements of his games compared to what Mario already does in Smash! That shouldn't even be a question! Hammer-based attacks, paper-based abilities, perspective trickery, sticker powers, partners, Pixls, items & special attacks found within the games & much more!

Want - 60%: Paper Mario just doesn't feel very important over other characters and I have no attachment to the character. The Paper Mario fans also have a penchant for exaggerating the worth of the series, which does turn me off a bit. Shouldn't be too much though. I bet they're fine games and I'll inevitably play them.

I partially agree to the sentiment that we're done for Mario characters. I've had my fill of them in Smash 4. Maybe there's a way to stir up the dish in Smash 5 that'll sate a flavor fitting for the next course. However, that isn't to say that if Paper Mario did make it in, I wouldn't hate him. I'd see that the character is already very meritable and he'd be a true bonus Mario character, unlike the good ol' doctor.

PREDICTION

Roy's our boy!

Chance - 98.86%
Want - 90.32%

NOMINATIONS

*Concept: No DLC Characters After Fighter Ballot x3
Galacta Knight x1
Anna x1

 

[Thereallucario]

PAPER MARIO
Chance: 40%
Its not improbable, and far more likely then many other Mario reps. The "spin off series" excuse also really helps. Also if the smash team is feeling lazy then they can reuse some pre used moves of the ice climbers and Mario.

Want: 55%
I'm a little torn on the subject. On one hand I see a wonderfully unique character with amazing moves and a totally unique play style. On the other hand he could just be a lazy clone.

 

[Serell]

A great Mario game? Maybe. A great Paper Mario game? No. The #1 defining thing that made Paper Mario was the turn-based combat. Which they completely gutted to make it another platformer. Because Mario doesn't have enough platformers.

There were MANY other things that ruined Super Paper Mario for me, but I won't get into detail and o off-topic.

I've got my opinions and everyone eles has theirs.

 

[Kalimdori]

I got the EXACT reaction after first seeing the first polls result came, I simply refused to believe they were really accurate, but becoming the same pattern in 3 or more....this is more consistency than flawed stuff.

Also, some polls were done on who people voted, consistency again. If they are flawed, they aren't much comparing each other.

It took me a really long time to admit this. Seriously, by being so exposed to the same arguments, I really needed a lot to believe these.

If it was just one poll, I would think the same.

But not for 3 and more, that becomes a pattern.

As for why I never told this before, past experience, it changed nothing.

Also, I personally trust those from push, I learned to know him in the leak thread, they are consistent enough to say top 10 mostly.

You missed my point.

These kind of polls on the internet are garnered towards us who are so into Smash Bros that we speculate endlessly on who could or could not get into the game, and despite how loud we are, we represent only a tiny faction of the people who actually play and enjoy Smash Bros, and by extension, the people voting on the ballot.

Let's take this one for example:

Had about 13,000 people respond to it. Smash Bros has sold several million copies.

Granted, not everyone who bought Smash will vote to on the ballot, but even if only a tenth of the people who bought Smash voted, it would still dwarf the results of this poll. I'm sure you see why I don't take the polls very seriously. These results skew towards a small, specific group of people, there's no way to find out who the majority of people are voting for.

 

[Sarki Soliloquy]

Last time I checked the Reddit page for the final poll results, one commenter suggested expanding the poll to general gaming audiences outside of the Smash fandom and perhaps other regions of the world that have different power rankings on characters, namely Japan. I feel like that's the closest we could possibly get to a more general picture of who's voting for who.

Otherwise, Paper Mario didn't get crinkled up with The Dregs at 444! That's not too bad. Certainly much more than I expect of him. You guys just need to make that number much larger to change more minds.

 

[smileMasky]

to tell you guys the truth I really hated sticker star

 

[A Distant Demon]

Wow there were 226 votesfor reckless safety man. I knew the community was not to be taken seriously but there is a limit. . .


As further proof that poll is skewed viewtiful joe beat dixie knong and captain toad. Yeah

 

[DNeon]

I initially skipped this since I don't have a strong opinion on the matter, but since it still seems to be going:

Paper Mario

Chance: 25%

Lots of Mario characters already, 2 versions of Mario, it just seems unlikely, however popular.

Want: 35%

I don't really mind, Mario deserves to have the most characters, he is THE Nintendo character and a stalwart of videogaming in general. Would prefer others, like Waluigi personally.

Roy

Prediction: 90%

Votes: 5x AW character

 

[Pureownege75]

to tell you guys the truth I really hated sticker star

Who didn't!

 

[Kalimdori]

Who's in the mood for a drinking game? Every time you see the words "rep", "representative", "representation" or any alternate forms thereof, take a drink. Take two drinks if the aforementioned character is from a franchise over 4 characters in Smash 4.

No. I choose life

BOTH Sticker Star and Super Paper Mario were horrible. They've run the Paper Mario series into the ground. My ratings would have been much higher if it wasn't for that.

This is almost off topic, but I don't care! I have something to say!

There is a difference between a deviation from the series and a bad game. Fox example, Nuts and Bolts was such a huge deviation from what the Banjo and Kazooie games were known and loved for, and as such was hated. But it wasn't necessarily a bad game, it played well for what it was. Take Metroid Other M as another, it tried to return to the roots of the series but did so with multiple bad design choices. Despite it's attempt to win the hearts of both the 2D and 3D Metroid games, it's flaws prevented it from doing so. (Well, that and the fact that it's story is universally reviled).

Super Paper Mario plays completely differently then the previous two games of the series, to the point that I'd argue that it isn't even a Paper Mario game, just a Mario platformer with a few RPG elements and a paper theme. But despite that, it controlled flawlessly and had an engrossing story, only real flaw it had was that it was different, which really isn't a flaw at all. It definitely wasn't a good Paper Mario game, but it was an excellent game.

 

[Serell]

@ Kalimdori Even if I forget the fact that Super Paper Mario wasn't a Paper Mario game, I didn't like it and didn't find it fun at all. I didn't fun the story interesting at all and the gameplay was meh. But seeing everyone else defending this game, I guess it was just me.

 

[smileMasky]

Who didn't!

It has the unsatisfying "ammo" system like what happened to the partners. I missed that

 

[aldelaro5]

You missed my point.

These kind of polls on the internet are garnered towards us who are so into Smash Bros that we speculate endlessly on who could or could not get into the game, and despite how loud we are, we represent only a tiny faction of the people who actually play and enjoy Smash Bros, and by extension, the people voting on the ballot.

Let's take this one for example:

Had about 13,000 people respond to it. Smash Bros has sold several million copies.

Granted, not everyone who bought Smash will vote to on the ballot, but even if only a tenth of the people who bought Smash voted, it would still dwarf the results of this poll. I'm sure you see why I don't take the polls very seriously. These results skew towards a small, specific group of people, there's no way to find out who the majority of people are voting for.

it at least makes a good sample though.....if I see multiple samples seemingly consistent, the chances of being accurate grows.

Not to mention that @PushDustIn once told me a great point : being mario here is actually an advantage for recognition of people that aren't too much hardcore. I learned this months ago because the real truth is that being mario is more an advantage here. If anything, there's a good reason to expect good recognition outside of these polls.

But if I see your perspective....that honestly means I'm not sure for kkr, because I know lots of his supporters are like us, but I can't help, but think his subset is quite more worthy anyway so it wouldn';t change much....

 

[Kalimdori]

it at least makes a good sample though.....if I see multiple samples seemingly consistent, the chances of being accurate grows.

Not to mention that @PushDustIn once told me a great point : being mario here is actually an advantage for recognition of people that aren't too much hardcore. I learned this months ago because the real truth is that being mario is more an advantage here. If anything, there's a good reason to expect good recognition outside of these polls.

But if I see your perspective....that honestly means I'm not sure for kkr, because I know lots of his supporters are like us, but I can't help, but think his subset is quite more worthy anyway so it wouldn';t change much....

I'm not saying the samples aren't accurate. I'm saying they don't matter. There's no way these results parallel with a casual audience, and the casual audience is so much bigger then we are.

 

[aldelaro5]

I'm not saying the samples aren't accurate. I'm saying they don't matter. There's no way these results parallel with a casual audience, and the casual audience is so much bigger then we are.

I would have the reflex to reply that they might not care as much in terms of repping.

In fact, if they take more a good observation in the potential, that could actually be helping him....

Cause I wonder if any casual people would have a strong reflex of saying "another mario", I wonder if they care honestly.....

 

[Yomi's Biggest Fan]

I'm not saying the samples aren't accurate. I'm saying they don't matter. There's no way these results parallel with a casual audience, and the casual audience is so much bigger then we are.

If the casual audience is even bigger that us, then I would imagine characters like Style Savvy and Party Phil having plenty of votes. Then there's also going to be requests for impossible characters like Club Penguin and Steve from Minecraft. Uh oh.

 

[Scamper52596]

Paper Mario
Chance: 22%
It's certainly possible, but I don't think he's all that likely for DLC. I'd give more details, but I'm pressed for time. I'll give the 2D Mario sprite a score of 22%.
Seems more like a base game kind of character to me...

Want: 62%
I think he would be a pretty cool character to have on the roster, but I can live without him.

Prediction - Roy: 92.1%

Nominations:
x4 Toon Zelda
x1 Tetra

 

[colder_than_ice]

Everyone read through pages 54-57 and every time you see someone make a paper pun or "flat chance" joke take a drink, unless you're underage. Combine this with Captain Hotcakes drinking game if your feeling really daring.

Paper Mario
Chance: 40% - I consider him to be a little bit underrated honestly. He's been doing very well in the polls and he'd be very easy to animate. I also don't see any problem with having three Marios, he's the world's most iconic video game icon 10 times over. Worst case scenario is that he'll face competition from other Mario characters like Captain Toad or Daisy. I'm honestly not sure whether or not he'd be a clone though.
Want: 60% - He's definitely more interesting than regular Mario. I also love the Paper Mario franchise and SPM is criminally underrated.

Roy prediction: 93% - Wolf take a seat.

Nominations:
DLC Music x4
DLC Smash Tour updates x1 (let the horror commence)

DAY OVER
PLEASE WAIT WHILE I CALCULATE THE RESULTS​

 

[Delzethin]

If the casual audience is even bigger that us, then I would imagine characters like Style Savvy and Party Phil having plenty of votes. Then there's also going to be requests for impossible characters like Club Penguin and Steve from Minecraft. Uh oh.

At the same time, though, it'd make more sense for them to listen to the core gamers more than the casual ones. Within a year's time or so, the casual crowd has moved on to whatever other games are popular at the moment. Core gamers are the most likely to purchase DLC.

 

[DaUsername]

I hope I'm not late.

Paper Mario
Chance: 7%
Want: 10%

Roy: 99%

Crash Bandicoot x5

 

[ES. Dinah]

Paper mario

Chances: 30%

He has great chances or more simply because he has lots of moveset potential. However, I think we have so many mario reps already and someone else should get the spot. He has some great special moves from the series and I'm a huge fan.

Want: 30%

I only want him in a little bit. He would be a really interesting character for sure. I would like to give him a chance, I suppose.

Nominations: KOS-MOS X5. Infinite potential!

 

[Aetheri]

Everyone read through pages 54-57 and every time you see someone make a paper pun or "flat chance" joke take a drink, unless you're underage. Combine this with Captain Hotcakes drinking game if your feeling really daring.

I don't have enough booze in my house to even try....

 

[colder_than_ice]

PAPER MARIO
CHANCE: 24.70%
WANT: 47.95%​

Paper Mario managed to pull off a pretty average score, not much to say. Next up we're rating Roy (not the Koopa Kid). Let's see how close he gets to 100%. Also please predict what score Ridley will get tomorrow.

 

[Pacack]

At the same time, though, it'd make more sense for them to listen to the core gamers more than the casual ones. Within a year's time or so, the casual crowd has moved on to whatever other games are popular at the moment. Core gamers are the most likely to purchase DLC.

In a poll, it isn't possible to tell whether the casual or core gamers have voted.

 

[Serell]

Roy, alrighty, not much to say.
Chance: 90%
I don't think the leak 100% confirms him, and I think 90% is fair.

Want: 60%
Sure why not, he's a veteran that isn't freaking pichu / toon link / snake

Ridley prediction: 18.4 %
oh my, this is going to be one hot debate

Nominations: Ray (Custom Robo) x5

 

[Sarki Soliloquy]

Everyone read through pages 54-57 and every time you see someone make a paper pun or "flat chance" joke take a drink, unless you're underage. Combine this with Captain Hotcakes drinking game if your feeling really daring.

I love you.

If the casual audience is even bigger that us, then I would imagine characters like Style Savvy and Party Phil having plenty of votes. Then there's also going to be requests for impossible characters like Club Penguin and Steve from Minecraft. Uh oh.

Both characters you just mentioned are something I'd only expect Smash fans to be savvy enough about Nintendo chronology to request. I'm sure casuals, the way we conceptualize them, are drawn in by star power more than novelty. I'd expect them to buy into which characters they can see standing among the likes of Mario and Link. Whether that be someone like Shadow or Waluigi, maybe even Angry Bird Red, Master Chief, or Goku.

I think hardcore gamers like us rely too much on the bogiddy-bogiddy boo stereotype of the waggle fitness gamer, rather than analyzing more prevalent consumer trends and what they entail. Might want to look into a separate research project for this.

 

[Moydow]

inb4 endless "we already have Roy " jokes

Roy
Chance: 90%
Okay, the sound files are pretty much confirmed by now. They exist. So it's very likely that Roy is planned, if not most of the way through development. Assuming he's still going to be a Marth clone, he's fairly easy to create - just spin off Marth's files, and work from there. He's got lots of support among Smash fans (less so among FE fans, but this is Smash). Why not 100%? I can't shake the feeling that the files were put in there to catch out the dataminers and would-be leakers, though the existence of Ryu files alongside Roy's mitigates that somewhat (would Capcom allow the use of their IP for a prank like that?).

Want: 50%
Completely in the middle here. If he comes back as a carbon copy of Melee Roy, it could be the return to glory of Marth (or at least his fighting style ). If he's nerfed in line with how Marth was gutted, though, he'd be a strong contender for worst character in the game.
As an FE fan, I have no connection with him at all - his game is one of the weaker FEs, and he's easily my least favourite Lord in the series.

Prediction for Ridley: 21.56%

Nominations: Phoenix Wright x5

 

[Deleted member]

Chance: 100%

He's already IN Smash 4. Why are we even wasting our precious time rating him?

Want: 100%

Roy's our boy!

Spoiler: Winning Road - Roy's Hope

Chance: 90%

As I'm sure we've learned from Gematsu and Artsy Omni, we should always take leaks with a grain of salt no matter how convincing they look. My chance rating is as high as it is only because the leak we're discussing today happens to be a sound file found in the data from the recent patch.

"Why are Sakurai and his team bringing back Roy of all characters?" I once asked myself. "Lucina fills Roy's niche to an extent and Chrom was excluded due to being another Marth clone, so why is Eliwood's son returning?" I have a plausible answer to that question:

Regardless of his clone status, Roy was still a fan-favorite in Melee (maybe not so much in his game of origin), so there is definitely money to be made with him as DLC for Smash 4. If you were in Sakurai's shoes, why would you waste that opportunity?

If Sakurai doesn't want a second Marth clone, he could easily convert Roy into a semi-clone without omitting what fans liked about him. The roster already contains one Mario clone (Dr. Mario) and one Mario semi-clone (Luigi), so that isn't far-fetched at all.

So why didn't I rate Roy at exactly 100%? Because Sakurai could possibly either change his mind last minute or have a different role planned for him. The only data found was a sound file, after all. He's certainly not near completion as of the post.

Want: Abstain

I don't even know how he will play in this iteration. What will make his moveset stand out this time aside from T3H PH1R3?

Prediction: Ridley - 1%

There will be some arguments supporting the idea of Super Metroid/Brawl Ridley being playable while others will be fully convinced that the purple space dragon won't be playable in Smash 4 due to his boss status and Sakurai's statement about him.

Nomination: Simon Belmont x5

 

[Sarki Soliloquy]

Last week before Finals. Gotta round out my work requirements before it's too late. Got quite a busy day tomorrow. But I'll be determined to have some sort of presence here nonetheless.

I'm planning for an early morning post of my ratings, so I'll get to drafting that after this. Until then, this is your Cap'n, returning to the quarters. Until then!

 

[Seanp12]

Roy
Chance: 90%
There are two things that can convince me of a leak. Video footage and in-game files. Down 10% for caution.

Want: 15%
I'm really not keen on another Marth clone, and I doubt Sakurai will change him much, given the usual Smash moveset inertia. (Lookin' at Ganondorf) I also have never played a game with Roy in it, including Melee. I just don't have much interest. If he is DLC, I probably won't buy him for the same reasons that I don't plan on buying Lucas. My brother probably will though, given his collect-them-all mentality.

The Cunning God of Death
Prediction: 5%
Even most Ridley fans agree that he's highly unlikely unless somebody changes Sakurai's mind about him. I don't care, I'm voting for him anyway.

Nominations:
Abraham Lincoln (Code Name: STEAM) x1
Concept: Any Star Fox character DLC near Star Fox U release date x4

 

[Erimir]

Roy

The thing here is that this isn't just a leak. This is data that Nintendo added to Smash Bros. The only way it doesn't mean Roy is in, is if that data is actually for something else. But... The thing is these are clearly victory themes. And especially in the case of Ryu... it really makes no sense for anything but Ryu as a DLC character. Ryu being a Street Fighter character, a series with no representation in Smash, getting an AT or a stage but no character? Doesn't make sense. Getting a trophy as DLC? Why even bother? Getting a song... well, if they wanted a song pack, that could make sense, but then why the victory theme? But no. It really only points in one direction: Roy and Ryu are DLC characters. People wanna play it safe, but I really don't see any other reason for that data to exist... I suppose Roy could be an alt for Marth (or Lucina I suppose). That's the only other role I can think of for it. But Roy being downgraded to an alt... I dunno.

Except that it was added by accident and they had only been contemplating those characters. Well, I can certainly buy that it was added by accident. That they would go through the trouble of having a Ryu victory theme and stage song recorded during the planning stage? Seems quite implausible. I suppose it's also possible that it's old data from the initial development, but I would expect that characters that were planned but scrapped before release would, you know, be good candidates for DLC anyway. And really, it never was a choice between Mega Man and Ryu. Mega Man was so obviously the one that belonged in Smash more. I mean, it's possible Capcom wanted to push Ryu, but that seems unlikely.

Of course, it could also be that there is a conspiracy involving multiple players who are putting their reputations at risk (in the case of Cutting Room Floor) to pull a non-April Fools' hoax on us, one that can easily be disproven by someone else who can decrypt the files. That seems very unlikely. But even if it was a hoax the thing is - Roy would still be one of the most likely DLC characters anyway! So it's basically irrelevant.

Then there's also a fourth scenario - it was meant to be for character DLC, but they later change their minds. This is a plausible scenario, but again, very unlikely. Roy doesn't really have any reason to be abandoned: he's a veteran, he was highly wanted for Sm4sh, he has potential to be differentiated from Marth/Lucina, he doesn't have any technical or licensing issues. Ryu has more ways he could end up unreleased since Capcom has control, but Roy? Why not?

My natural inclination is to be skeptical, and be the one giving low scores when everyone else is optimistic. But really, everything here points to Roy and Ryu DLC.

Roy chances: 99%
It's not 100% certain, but it's pretty damn close. Teeny tiny chance of hoax, tiny chance of them changing their minds, tiny chance of it being old data accidentally included, small chance of Roy data being for an alt.

Roy want: 37%
He's a Melee clone (i.e. quite clonish), he's from Fire Emblem (they already have enough characters), he's from FE and a swordsman (and most of them are already that). I'd much rather have Wolf, Squirtle, Ivysaur or a new character. But I'll cut him slack compared to some characters due to his veteran status.

Ridley prediction: 13%
People are quite pessimistic about him now, I think.

Nominations:
Simon Belmont x5

 

[lightdasher]

Roy
Chance: 70%

Want : 0%
I do not like him, both as a character and as a Smash character, and the fact that Fire Emblem would be getting a 5th/another rep before bigger franchises like Zelda for example is pretty damn insulting, and being yet another clone at that is even worse

 

[Pureownege75]

Roy.... oh Boy
Chance: 85% (Playable)
10% (Some sort of Alt)
5% (Code in Game was scraped... hopefully)
Really don't need an explanation here, he's probably going to be playable, but he could just end up as an Alternate, but that in itself is also unlikely

Want: 1%
Alright, if I had to pick one character to not be in this game, it'd be Roy. I don't like the idea at all, and this is going to be a long one, because it's a topic I'm quiet passionate about. Roy (TO ME) represents pretty much everything I hate. Overrepresentation, clones, bias, annoying fanbase, and undeserving characters.

Overrepresentation: This one's obvious. I simply can't fathom that Fire Emblem, a niche series that is already pushing it with four characters, is going to get another character, while DK, Metroid, and Zelda have all been shafted thus far. It's not right at all. Sakurai may not think in terms of reps, but most fans do, and I'm no exception. A series' success should relate to how it's represented in Smash, and Fire Emblem only finally made a break through after like 12 games, yet will soon have equal amounts of characters to Zelda... one of Nintendo's biggest series. Yeah that's not right if you ask me

Clones: Clones are acceptable when they are added at the end of development at the end of a game, like what happened in Melee and Smash4. But a clone should never be DLC. You can make the argument that he could get de-cloned, but Sakurai has never done that, and I'm not inclined to believe Roy will be the first. It's only made even more frustrating when there is already a Marth clone in this game. If they de-clone him I'll eat my words, but still won't be thrilled about his inclusion, simply less upset

Sakurai Bias: While Sakurai hasn't worked on Fire Emblem, he is a self-proclaimed fan of the series. Roy is probably yet another product of that. I love Sakurai and all, but Smash is a celebration of Nintendo, not a celebration of Sakurai's works and interests. Bias is everywhere in the series, and it shows greately with Roy.

Annoying Fanbase: Roy to me, represents the really foul side of the Smash community, being the Melee elitists. I can guarantee that if he was a Brawl character cut, he wouldn't get half the votes he gets. But he's "The Melee Boy" we need him back. It's annoying to see people who don't ever play the Fire Emblem games, nor know anything about the character, support him in droves.

Undeserving: Roy is a character that, from what I understand, is generally disliked by actual Fire Emblem Fans. His game is considered one of the lesser entries, and Roy is considered one of the weakest lords. A character like that shouldn't be coming back. Mewtwo came back because he's a big deal. He's one of the most popular Pokemon ever. Roy is generally disliked by his series fanbase, and is supported pretty much exclusively by the group I mentioned earlier

There you go, I hate the idea of this character in the game. The sole reason I didn't give him a Zero is because it'd shut up the "ROY"S OUR BOY" People. Some of the stuff I said could be totally wrong to you, but that's what he represents to me, from my experiences in smash discussion/speculation

Ridley Prediction: 13%

Nominations
RH Character x3
Themed Stage Packs x2

 

[lightdasher]

Undeserving: Roy is a character that, from what I understand, is generally disliked by actual Fire Emblem Fans. His game is considered one of the lesser entries, and Roy is considered one of the weakest lords. A character like that shouldn't be coming back. Mewtwo came back because he's a big deal. He's one of the most popular Pokemon ever. Roy is generally disliked by his series fanbase, and is supported pretty much exclusively by the group I mentioned earlier

Might I also add that he doesn't even have a good personality, having played his game he's just your generic run of the mill lord and very ignorant to a point it's annoying and sometimes cringy

 

[Strider_Bond00J]

Roy. The Young Lion of Pherae.
Once again, I'll compile the precious scores:

Spoiler

K.Rool Chance: 87% Want: 100
Banjo & Kazooie Chance: 3% Want: 14%
Isaac Chance: 70% Want: 90%
Bandanna Dee Chance: 42% Want: 50%
Captain Toad: Abstained chance and want
Krystal Chance: 36% Want: 71%
Dixie Kong Chance: 40% Want: 43%
Impa Chance: 35% Want 79%
Shantae Chance: 10% Want 54%
Inklings Chance: 31% Want: 51%
Rayman Chance: 61% Want 89%
Snake Chance: 35% Want: 50%
Wolf Chance: 98% Want: 100%
Shovel Knight Chance: 13% Want 65%
Quote Chance 8% Want: 4%
Ice Climbers Chance: 25% Want: 40%
Sceptile: Chance: 12.60 Want: 52%
Wonder Red Chance: 18% Want: 78%
Promoted NPCs Chance: 13% Want: 30%
Henry Fleming Chance: 13.20 Want: 57%
Paper Mario Chances: 14% Want: 8%

Chances: 98%
There were many arguments held against him, The 'Roy' alt, the 'Roy' Koopaling, Lucina, Robin or even the amount of characters Fire Emblem already has in this game. Yet on those words, the supporters never gave up hope for him. They believed he would return, be it DLC with a throwback to Melee or even a brand new moveset, or even a Luigification like Ganondorf or Falco. He was without a doubt one of Japan's most wanted veterans, and with Lucas and Mewtwo back, Roy and Wolf are the most feasible left to add. If he wasn't leaked by accident in the patch, he'd probably remain in the 50% range.

Wants: 100%
Roy will always be my boy. Because of him and Marth, I developed a love for Fire Emblem, not to mention I loved his fiery moveset and Fukuyama's voice when he played Roy in Melee, from the insane battle cries to the calm and collected voice of victory. Roy was the character I first thought of when Smash Bros 4 was announced, and I waited, but he wasn't in the initial game. (And Marth stole my boy's clothes, forever condemning Marth to my training dummy in the 3DS version) But thanks to Mewtwo, I felt more confident in him coming back, and I kept supporting for him. And it looks like he will be coming home, my Boy Roy. And we can finally end the 'Roy's already in Smash Bros' jokes.

After Roy's return, that is all I ask of the Fire Emblem series for this game. I know when enough is enough, and after Roy, Fire Emblem should rest for now, and let other series get the spotlight like Metroid or DK.

(Whoa, I didn't realise that the image I linked here was of Valkyrie XD - I thought it was of Roy and Roy!)
And Ridley, another of my most wanted pre-3DS
Chance:12%.

 

[ChronoBound]

"Pureownege75, post: 19121031, member: 252992]

Undeserving: Roy is a character that, from what I understand, is generally disliked by actual Fire Emblem Fans. His game is considered one of the lesser entries, and Roy is considered one of the weakest lords. A character like that shouldn't be coming back. Mewtwo came back because he's a big deal. He's one of the most popular Pokemon ever. Roy is generally disliked by his series fanbase, and is supported pretty much exclusively by the group I mentioned earlier

A lot of these are lies.

First off, only a minority of Western Fire Emblem fans have played the Japan-only FE's, so their opinion is basically insignificant, especially considering Western lord popularity is primarily based off how well the character can solo the map.

Second, in Japan, the Japanese FE fans like Roy.

Third, him being among the weaker lords, most of which stems from his absurdly late promotion time, should have no bearing on his worth to be in Smash. I mean Jigglypuff is certainly not among the best Pokemon. Its a stupid flimsy reason.

Fourth, FE6 was among the highest selling games in the series in Japan, fourth highest of a series of 13 games. Its also among the highest regarded amongst the Japanese fanbase, which unlike the West, did receive all the games in the series properly. Even amongst the few Western FE fans that have played Japan-only FE's, the only Japan-only FE that is more popular is FE4.

Fifth, Roy is even more highly requested amongst Japanese fans than even Western ones. Both Smash and FE fans want him back there. Even in thew West, he is among the Top 10 most popular choices for the ballot.

Sixth, Sakurai had intentions of bringing back Roy since Brawl, just like Dr. Mario and Mewtwo, both of whom already returned.

Seventh, Roy's popularity, along with Marth, was what helped bring the Fire Emblem series over in North America, and also helped introduce many current Japanese FE fans to FE.

Eighth, Roy is the most well known and popular of the GBA lords, the only epoch for FE not currently represented in Smash 4. Marth reps FE on the Famicom, Super Famicom, and DS. Ike reps FE on the GCN and Wii. Robin (and Lucina) reps FE on the 3DS. FE had three games on the GBA, two of which based in Roy's continent, and Roy is the only GBA lord to be the sole lord of his title.

Ninth, Roy has t3h ph1r3.

Tenth, Roy's Our Boy.

Taken together, this is hardly "undeserving".