Rate their Chances: the DLC Edition. Day: 192: The final day

[PK_Wonder]

Paper Mario

If there's any character we can get three versions of, it's Mario. Long ago, most people abandoned the "but he'll be a clone!" mentality, and took up the "but he's still another Mario!" argument. We have two Links (they are different incarnations), two Zeldas (they are probably not different incarnations), and two Samus (definitely the same person), and of course, two Marios (also the same person). This potential third Mario? It doesn't really matter canonically if it's the same incarnation of Mario, as Paper Mario has always been treated as a very distinct subseries. I really don't think if we're getting five Fire Emblem characters that Sakurai cares if we have three versions of Mario, the most recognizable character in gaming history. A character who more people can name now than Mickey Mouse himself.

Paper Mario is popular. Counting the Virtual Console release, research suggests it has surpassed ten million in sales. Paper Mario 5 is one of the most requested sequels Nintendo gets asked about (and could certainly be in the works), the N64 title just came out on Wii U VC, and he possibly is doing better than any other Mario character in the ballot. People talk about the series a lot, and people are requesting him for Smash.

He has a lot of potential beyond just a hammer. Unique papery mobility (the paper airplane is the obvious one, but there are several options), RPG-influenced aesthetics, and summoning partners all come to mind immediately. So there are great arguments for him when people submit a request for him in the ballot. Paper Mario already got a lot of nice representation with a stage and several trophies between the two games, so the character is certainly on the radar. The only thing he has standing in his way is a limited number of roster slots.

Chances - 65%

nominate Crono x5

I guess I'll start predicting now. I predict Roy gets a 95.5%

 

[aldelaro5]

Paper Mario

If there's any character we can get three versions of, it's Mario. Long ago, most people abandoned the "but he'll be a clone!" mentality, and took up the "but he's still another Mario!" argument. We have two Links (they are different incarnations), two Zeldas (they are probably not different incarnations), and two Samus (definitely the same person), and of course, two Marios (also the same person). This potential third Mario? It doesn't really matter canonically if it's the same incarnation of Mario, as Paper Mario has always been treated as a very distinct subseries. I really don't think if we're getting five Fire Emblem characters that Sakurai cares if we have three versions of Mario, the most recognizable character in gaming history. A character who more people can name now than Mickey Mouse himself.

Paper Mario is popular. Counting the Virtual Console release, research suggests it has surpassed ten million in sales. Paper Mario 5 is one of the most requested sequels Nintendo gets asked about (and could certainly be in the works), the N64 title just came out on Wii U VC, and he possibly is doing better than any other Mario character in the ballot. People talk about the series a lot, and people are requesting him for Smash.

He has a lot of potential beyond just a hammer. Unique papery mobility (the paper airplane is the obvious one, but there are several options), RPG-influenced aesthetics, and summoning partners all come to mind immediately. So there are great arguments for him when people submit a request for him in the ballot. Paper Mario already got a lot of nice representation with a stage and several trophies between the two games, so the character is certainly on the radar. The only thing he has standing in his way is a limited number of roster slots.

Chances - 65%

nominate Crono x5

I guess I'll start predicting now. I predict Roy gets a 95.5%

it`s sad to think about it, but this is so far the only rating I would approve and applaud for it.........

I think you got why I didn`t wanted to rate him 2 weeks ago....I`m even more confident to not do it.

 

[Delzethin]

I'm not trying to derail what you said but don't you think the circumstances are a bit different here? For one, Robin over Chrom makes perfect sense given he plays much more unique than the latter and Lucina having the role of Marth clone instead of Chrom given that she's much more unique then he is as a character. Roy isn't on the same boat here given theirs evidence to support him getting in the game and that he has the most reason to be DLC for the FE series.

It's similar in that most of the fanbase thinks they know exactly what is happening, when there are still other factors. The victory sound files are there, but I don't think it's as open and shut as "they're 100% distinct playable characters". For one, I don't think it's out of the question that Roy is an alt for Marth or Lucina.

I'll elaborate tonight.

 

[FalKoopa]

That was quite a lot of argument. Anyway.

PAPER MARIO:
CHANCE: 15%
WANT: 85%

I simply don't think that we are getting a Mario character as DLC - not after we got two non-clone newcomers - & - and the good ol' back from Melee. Other than that, I don't think he has the best chance among the possible Mario newcomers either - Captain Toad has a lot going for him right now, fresh off with two well-received games, while Paper Mario only got the average Sticker Star. That said, Paper Mario's popularity has endured and stayed strong, and he has a stage for himself, so there is some hope, perhaps?

As for want, Paper Mario and TTYD are amongst my favourite RPGs because how different they are from the standard RPG fare, despite looking similar from the outside. There's also a lot of stuff to experiment with here - partners, badges, hammers, paper mechanics - and what not. He definitely is my most wanted Mario newcomer.

PREDICTION: 92%

IVYSAUR × 5

 

[ShinyRegice]

Paper Mario chances: 18%
"MOVESET POTENTIA- Just because you have "moveset potential" doesn't make you worthy of being a playable character in Smash Bros. When you include a character in Smash Bros. you think about which characters could be worthy of being in Smash Bros. then you draw a moveset for them. Sakurai judged a second Link worthy of being of Smash Bros. due to being a child version of him despite being a clone after all (even though I admit Toon Link should have gotten some unique moves and weapons, but that's another story). So we must ask: is Paper Mario worthy of being of Smash Bros. ignoring the potential he has for a moveset? Paper Mario is visually distinct from regular Mario, drawn with a different artstyle and design and, on top of that, he's a 2D character similar to Mr. Game & Watch. I'd say Paper Mario is visually distinct enough from regular Mario and a recognizable character, and now we must define if the Paper Mario sub-series is worthy enough of being represented through a playable character. The series for sure has legacy, with Paper Mario 64 and The Thousand Year-Door being long time fan-favourite games, and there's rather strong demand for a fifth installment after Super Paper Mario which got mixed reception and Sticker Star which was overall panned.

What I believe is Paper Mario's biggest problem is his lack of relevance because Paper Mario 64 and The Thousand Year-Door are old and the most recent installments were not as well received as these no, not THAT kind of recency-related "relevance" (which is a stupid reason to just reject anyone if you ask me) What I mean is the lack of relevance towards the main Mario series, basically he's a spinoff character, and those tend to not often get playable representation with the current exception of Dr. Mario who was added in Melee as an easy clone. And contrary to other spin-offs like Mario Kart, Paper Mario can't really compare to the main series when it comes to sales and mainstream popularity. That said, I'd say the Paper Mario series has enough legacy to potentially get playable recognition through a playable character, especially considering the decent amount of support he gets from fans, but I don't see him as likely.

Paper Mario want: 20%
Sure he could be cool with all the stuff from the Paper Mario series, but I want other series get more characters besides Mario (like... it got two unique newcomers as well as a clone back from Melee... I mean seriously) and other characters before a third Mario, and I think some of the unique abilities from Paper Mario could just as well be given as custom moves to regular Mario; it could represent the Paper Mario series through a playable character without the need of yet another Mario.

Roy prediction: 94.90%
teh PH1R3 L3AK

Nominating:
Concept: DLC characters get custom moves (including Mewtwo through patching) x5

 

[MasterWarlord]

Chance 10%: Too many Mario characters and he seems very unwanted, which matters with the poll.

Want 0%: It would be higher if I didn't know that Sticker Star would be heavily represented in the set.

Nominate Slime x5

 

[YoshiandToad]

PAPER MARIO: 25%
I expect him to fall flat.

Ha. Classic.

Spoiler

K. Rool
Day missed. Absent.

Banjo-Kazooie
Chance: 9%, Want: 85%

Isaac
Chance: 55%, Want: 75%

Bandana Dee
Chance: 40%, Want: 100%

Captain Toad
Chance: 45%, Want: 100%

Krystal
Chance: 25%, Want: 50%

Dixie Kong
Chance: 66%, Want: 100%

Impa
Chance: 28%, Want: 100%

Shantae
Chance: 1%, Want: 5%

Inklings
Chance: 62%, Want: 70%

Rayman
Chance: 33%, Want: 90%


Day missed. Whoops.


Chance: 100%, Want: 80%

Shovel Knight
Chance: 0.3%, Want: 0%

Quote
Chance: 0.5%, Want: 3%


Chance: 5%, Want: 10%

Sceptile
Chance: 20%, Want: 55%

Wonder RedChance: 15%, Want: 68%

Promoted NPCs
Chance: 25%, Want: 100%

Henry Fleming:
Day missed.

Paper Mario

Chance: 30%

Paper Mario has a lot of stuff actually going for him here; popularity? Check. He's pretty dang popular. Recognisable character? Check. Dur; he's Mario. Moveset potential? Check. Paper based abilities would give him plenty to play with.

I have no doubt in my mind that Paper Mario has all the right boxes ticked to be playable, and if Doc wasn't a thing I'd see his ratings skyrocket as I believe that's the only thing preventing his ballot demand from being higher....that and Sticker Star singlehandedly destroying a lot of faith in the Paper Mario series due to Miyamoto's executive meddling.

Like with Captain Toad, I personally don't see him being a part of the Mario series as a negative. Indeed as a part of the Mario franchise I feel he'd sell better than 90% of other DLC characters amongst the huge casual market. If we're going purely by selling potential both these boys would be near top tier.

Want: 75%
Ol' Papes is essentially my number one want's most worthy rival. Like many The Thousand Year Door for me was essentially the peak of this franchisse...I personally don't enjoy RPGs very much (You will never see me play Golden Sun or Xenoblade for example) but The Thousand Year Door is still in my top ten video games of all time.

If Paper Mario was to get in, honestly I'd rather he have the ability to summon some of his TTYD partners for attacks, as these sidekicks are really what made the game for me. It's partly the reason I couldn't get through Super Paper Mario even, despite on paper(ha) it being a game more suited to my personal tastes.

Despite this, Paper Mario IS still a potential rival to Captain Toad, and given the choice between a third, albeit unique and interesting Mario, and the most unique member of the creatures I've wanted for 15+ years in Smash, I clearly lean more towards one of these characters more than the other. Once Captain Toad or regular ol' Toad is in I'll happily raise the paper flag for his inclusion in the future.

I am also mildly worried though. In theory Paper Mario SHOULD be unique with his paper techniques, possible partner use(yes please) and unique dimensions he COULD still be a Cloney mcClone. Nothing regular Mario does is impossible for Paper to do(if Sushi substitutes FLUDD) and a third Mario semi clone is something I'd like to avoid(yes I'm counting Luigi).
Is it likely to happen? I'm unsure. Could it happen? Please see Toon Link and Ganondorf.

Prediction: 97%
Some may argue it's not happening, but the evidence is pretty damning to those people.

Nominations:
X 5 (I see others are voting up)

 

[Sir Gengar de Èctoplasma]

Chance: 25%
Want: 5%

Roy prediction: 96%

Nominations: DLC Alt Costumes for Characters 5x

 

[WeirdChillFever]

Pepper Mario
Chance: 15%
Want: 100%

Middle-of-the-road-character.

As for want, I crave for my new well deserved Mario newcomer.
I rather have a completely unique character, but I'd settle for a clone.
Mario needs more characters IMO.

Another Koopaling: 89%

Magolor x5

 

[[Obnoxshush/Dasshizer]]

Paper Mario
Chance:30%

Want:0%
We have enough Marios in the game.

Prediction: Roy 90%

Nomination: BB bandit trio X5.

 

[memoryman3]

Paper Mario

Chances: 30%

We don't need another Mario character (and by that I mean literally another Mario,not other Mario characters who are more deserving). But then again, Mario IS Nintendo's mascot, with more trophies than anyone else in the game. Nintendo does love to milk Mario as much as they
can, and dare I say it...he is undoubtedly THE main character of Smash Bros.


Want: 0%
We already have Super Mario and Dr. Mario. Give us other Mario characters like Daisy and Waluigi and Toad first!

 

[Martingale]

404-- Page Not Found: Paper Mario Chances
Chance: 20%
It hurts me to have to give Paper Mario a low rating, as he is one of the few characters I really love the idea of in Smash. With his unique RPG aspects, the Pixls from Super Paper Mario, and so much more, I could easily see Paper Mario playable in the game. But then, Dr. Mario was made a quick clone at the end of development.

Now don't get me wrong, Dr. Mario is a second main of mine, but he does nothing to represent puzzle games and he is superfluous. With Paper Mario having such a rich and diverse history, he would be an extremely interesting character to play with and actually represents a series with a future. With Paper Mario having just been released on the WiiU eshop, folks will be reminded of the unique character. People easily dismiss him as just another Mario, but he is completely different. He's popular in the polls, but maybe not popular enough to warrant a third Mario.

Basically, his chances would be fantastic if it wasn't for Dr. Mario still existing. See you in 5mash, Paper Mario!

Want: 89%
GIMME. That is all.

Roy Prediction: 93.5554%
Sound files found gonna make people rate highly. But not my cup of tea.

Nominating 5x Professor Layton to get him above the 100! LAYTONHYPE.

 

[ZecaOMestre]

Paper Mario

Chance: 25%
I don't think we're gonna see new Mario charcaters as DLC, but Paper Mario would probably be the prime candidate for the spot if we do. The thing is, however, that Smash 4 has alredy got 2 Mario newcomers and Paper Mario is not super popular or anything.

Want: 40%
Could be cool, as he has a lot of potential, but not really something I would really love.

Roy Prediction:
95,7%

Nominations:
Nx5

 

[JBRPG]

Paper Mario:

Chance 15%
Even though I like to see another unique kind of Mario with movesets respective of the Paper Mario Series, Dr. Mario seems to be enough for SSB4, Maybe we can get 3 unique marios in SSB5.

Want 75%

Although I do not mind seeing those three, I strongly believe that Paper Mario has enough source material that its possible to make a moveset that is nearly canon to his series.

Nomiation:
Bayonetta x5

 

[True Blue Warrior]

It's similar in that most of the fanbase thinks they know exactly what is happening, when there are still other factors. The victory sound files are there, but I don't think it's as open and shut as "they're 100% distinct playable characters". For one, I don't think it's out of the question that Roy is an alt for Marth or Lucina.

I'll elaborate tonight.

If Doctor Mario didn't end up as an alt in the end just because Sakurai felt it would have been a disservice towards his Melee players and thus promoted him into his separate playable character, Roy will not end up as a DLC costume. Besides, if Sakurai wanted Roy to be one, he would have bee made the Marth alt instead of Lucina to begin with.

 

[Deleted member]

The Directory has been updated.

Paper Mario
Chance: 5%
Honestly, I think Paper Mario's chances fell flat after when the roster was completed, meaning that I don't think that Paper Mario is a strong DLC candidate.
First, we have Bowser Jr. and Rosalina, two non-clone newcomers that took a lot of work and effort to put in. They are also two core Mario characters. Second, we already have a Mario clone with Dr. Mario, meaning that Paper Mario's niche as this is gone.
When it comes to competition, I think that Daisy's popularity and the rise of Captain Toad outdo him. Whether you love or hate Daisy, her requests are pretty big; she has been near the top of numerous polls for example, even some where she beats Paper Mario. Then with Captain Toad, he is basically a rising star with his new game and was a part of 3D World; Nintendo could request Sakurai to put him in to promote him more (and don't think this is unlikely as Roy and Ryu were apparently put in before the ballot).
Paper Mario's future can be seen as questionable especially after Sticker Star. That game got very mixed reception, meaning that Nintendo might not want to continue with the series.
Overall, this is an uphill battle for Paper Mario. I expect him to get outcompeted.

Want: 0%
The idea of Paper Mario never appealed to me. I loved The Thousand Year Door and Super Paper Mario, but he never appealed to me as a character because I think that he will be a clone.
"B-b-but the party members and source material!" Yes, Paper Mario has a lot to work with. However, what would be easier for the developers? A clone that wouldn't take much no time at all or a unique fighter? There is also a matter of Ganondorf and Toon Link. Ganondorf has a lot of material to work with; Dead Man's Volley, using his sword in combat as well as physical attacks, teleportation, and using his cape as a reflector. However, Sakurai's vision for Ganondorf is a slower, more powerful clone of Captain Falcon. With Toon Link, he has a lot of items and weapons to work with and yet he is a Link clone.
What I am trying to say is that while Paper Mario has a lot of unique attributes, they will most likely be looked over in favor of cloning him.
Also, I am perfectly fine with one Mario clone, being Dr. Mario. Anything beyond that will make me sick. Speaking of sick, I can't help but get that feeling if he got in; I can't follow the Paper Mario franchise anymore because of how massively disappointed I was with Sticker Star.
Finally, the Mario DLC newcomer I want is Captain Toad; Paper Mario could interfere with that.

Roy Prediction: 97.79%
Leaks.

Nominations: DLC Alt Costumes for Characters 5x

 

[WeirdChillFever]

Note that Falcondorf (and Two Link) were made clones because of time constraints and they didn't change to not make mains sad.
Not because Sakurai thinks it is "the right portrayal".

With Paper Mario, when they're deciding on him they'll go all out because there are less time contraints.

 

[4theRECORD]

Paper Mario TTYD: Best. RPG. Ever.
...Though it could be topped by Xenoblade X.

Paper Mario (Paper Mario)
Chance: 15%
I don't think he's that likely. Mario has already gotten plenty of representation already with two newcomers and one returnee, and one of them had to be another Mario. Oh, and he dosen't seem to be getting much support in the ballot. And his most recent game, Sticker Star, wasn't really appealing to the fanbase either. Honestly, I don't think that we'll get another Mario newcomer this time, and if we do, it'll probably be Toad.

Want:80%
If you couldn't tell by the first sentance, I'm a big fan of the Paper Mario series. While I've played other RPGs every now and then (Some favorites being Final Fantasy VIII and Tales of the Abyss) I think I had the most fun with Paper Mario TTYD. The world of Rogueport was just so fun to be in. And the other two games were also very well made, though less could be said for Sticker Star. That's pretty much the No 1 reason why he's not getting a 100% in want. (Other factors are fear of over-repping Mario or there simply being other characters I want to support, but there nothing major.)

Roy predictions: 90%
I hear sounds of destruction.

Noms: Ray (Custom Robo) x5

 

[MainJPW]

Note that Falcondorf (and Two Link) were made clones because of time constraints and they didn't change to not make mains sad.
Not because Sakurai thinks it is "the right portrayal".

With Paper Mario, when they're deciding on him they'll go all out because there are less time contraints.

Yeah, the're working on these characters pretty much on their own time; no real deadlines.

 

[JaidynReiman]

Note that Falcondorf (and Two Link) were made clones because of time constraints and they didn't change to not make mains sad.
Not because Sakurai thinks it is "the right portrayal".

With Paper Mario, when they're deciding on him they'll go all out because there are less time contraints.

Or they'd not do him at all because he would be more original and the only reason they made Young/Toon Link in the first place was because they wanted to make them clones. Falcondorf only exists because they couldn't think of any other character to create a clone with.


They didn't make Dr. Mario, Young Link, and Toon Link because of time constraints. Because of time constraints they made these characters instead of a brand new character, and chose them specifically TO BE clones.


With Paper Mario, they'd pick him for the moveset, or not pick him at all.

 

[Bebe Mignon]

PAPER MARIO
Chance: 14.5%
Due to the addition of Bowser Jr. and Rosalina & Luma, as well as Doctor Mario's return, Paper Mario doesn't have a very high chance of getting a spot on the roster is not. He does have a decent amount of supporters, so maybe he'll get in?

Want: 70%
To be honest, I've only played a little bit of Paper Mario: The Thousand Year Door. I just want him in because I feel he would be a unique addition to the roster even though the concept would be similar to Mr. Game & Watch.

ROY
Prediction: 97.25%

NOMINATION
Elma x5

 

[smileMasky]

Paper Mario
Chance 12%
the only major thing that would hold any mario character back is the Over representation

Want 45%
I had him on my old wish list due to the fact that he was my favourite RPG On the N64

Nomination

ninten x 5

 

[MacDaddyNook]

Looks like I got a little catching up to do

Paper Mario's Chances: 50%

I wouldn't count him entirely out, after all, the Mario series is Nintendo's flagship. With that said, I am a bit skeptical of getting a third version of the same character, sure it's possible, but I don't think the support is there and the backlash from fans may work against them overall.

Paper Mario's Want: 0%
We have seven Mario characters, not counting the Bowser Jr. skins, and 2 versions of Mario himself. That's too many in my book. I honestly do not care how unique he could be, I absolutely do not want to see a third version of Mario, or any other alternate version of an existing character that's already in the game for that matter, get in when there are so so many more interesting and unique faces and worlds that have not been included. Mario is more than covered, we don't need any more.

-----

And now to catch up on the onest I missed...

Wonder Red

Spoiler

Wonder Red's Chances: 30%
Let's get the elephant out of the room, his biggest hindrance is the fact that Wonderful 101 is new but didn't sell very well. While selling isn't the primary factor of a character's chances, EarthBound is the best example for that, it could mean that Nintendo may be hesitant to promote it with a paid DLC character. With that said, Wonder Red would be a pretty quirky and unique character that would be right up Mr. Sakurai's alley.

Wonder Red's Want: 90%
Now we're finally talking about newcomers I can get behind. Wonderful 101 is a very fun and charming game that sucked me right into its world. I have always had a soft spot for Super Heroes, and this take on a Super Sentai/Thunderbirds concept pulled it off very well. I can see his Unite abilities and the need for masses of allies, most-like represented with a counter number of sort, being the core mechanic for his gameplay. Overall, he has potential to be very fun and bring something new to the series.

Henry Fleming

Spoiler

Fleming's Chances: 25%
Fleming's in a similar boat as Wonder Red, he's from a new game that hasn't sold the best. Like Red, he has a strong gimmick that'd translate into something unseen in Smash Bros that could excite Mr. Sakurai. The only reason I see his chances as being a little lower than Red's is that his game isn't out in most of the world, so he doesn't have the cult following Red does.

Fleming's Want: 90%
Another unique character from an untapped series, and a uber patriot with a big steam gun, yes please. Fleming's steam-powered mechanic would provide an interesting strategy as players would have to choose between smaller bursts that use less steam or stock up for stronger attacks. Plus, I'd be lying if I didn't want to see President Lincoln brought into the game somehow, excluding Miis.

NPCs being made playable

Spoiler

NPC's Chances: Varied
Since we are talking about a number of characters, it's really hard to just cover them with a blanket percentage. I think it really boils down to demand and how prominent their current NPC role is. I honestly don't see AT characters making it in since it would require more work to adjust the current AT system or make them visually different or not appear when said character is in play. And Ridley is just out of the question thanks to Mr. Sakurai's views on the character. But I could see characters that appeared in the background of stages that aren't too noticeable have a chance, out of the bunch, I'd have to say Tails or Cranky Kong have the best chance over all NPCs.

NPC's Want: Varied, mostly low
Truth be told, there just aren't many of these characters I really want to see promoted. Most of them are from existing worlds that have four or more characters and the rest don't really excite me. With the exception of Saki, Takamaru, Tails and Dillon, I really don't want any of them to chance their current role.

-----

Roy's Chances: 50%

-----

Nominate:
Layton X2
Simon Belmon X2
Chibi Robo X1

 

[Oasis Dealer]

Paper Mario
Chance: 40%
He can bring a unique moveset using partners, badges, stickers, and also stylish moves for animations. The question is wether or not they want another Mario character. Granted, this poll is to see what characters people want; And if most people want Paper Mario, they'll consider him.

Want:100%
I love the Paper Mario series. It's one of the few RPG's I can get into, and Paper Mario has always been my favorite. I love the humor, the music, the stories, the characters, everything about this franchise. Seeing Paper Mario in this game would be a dream come true.

 

[PokÉmblem]

Paper Mario

If there's any character we can get three versions of, it's Mario. Long ago, most people abandoned the "but he'll be a clone!" mentality, and took up the "but he's still another Mario!" argument. We have two Links (they are different incarnations), two Zeldas (they are probably not different incarnations), and two Samus (definitely the same person), and of course, two Marios (also the same person). This potential third Mario? It doesn't really matter canonically if it's the same incarnation of Mario, as Paper Mario has always been treated as a very distinct subseries. I really don't think if we're getting five Fire Emblem characters that Sakurai cares if we have three versions of Mario, the most recognizable character in gaming history. A character who more people can name now than Mickey Mouse himself.

Paper Mario is popular. Counting the Virtual Console release, research suggests it has surpassed ten million in sales. Paper Mario 5 is one of the most requested sequels Nintendo gets asked about (and could certainly be in the works), the N64 title just came out on Wii U VC, and he possibly is doing better than any other Mario character in the ballot. People talk about the series a lot, and people are requesting him for Smash.

He has a lot of potential beyond just a hammer. Unique papery mobility (the paper airplane is the obvious one, but there are several options), RPG-influenced aesthetics, and summoning partners all come to mind immediately. So there are great arguments for him when people submit a request for him in the ballot. Paper Mario already got a lot of nice representation with a stage and several trophies between the two games, so the character is certainly on the radar. The only thing he has standing in his way is a limited number of roster slots.

Chances - 65%

nominate Crono x5

I guess I'll start predicting now. I predict Roy gets a 95.5%

I hope your right I see a lot of potential in him but some would be against another mario character(literally Mario, get it!) anyway the dislike of the character for some is the reason. I say he's probably going to be the 6th dlc character if it even goes that far.

 

[aldelaro5]

I hope your right I see a lot of potential in him but some would be against another mario character(literally Mario, get it!) anyway the dislike of the character for some is the reason. I say he's probably going to be the 6th dlc character if it even goes that far.

The problem is that what I got with polls, it's simply not as big of an issue as people got, I actually took 3 trusted polls to accept this.

In fact, I would actually be shocked if the rating is lower than the previous rtc.....

 

[Kenith]

Paper Mario:
Chance: 5%. Paper Mario's got some serious competition. Captain Toad has pretty much everything in his favour, and Daisy is more popular and could be an easy clone of Peach. Not to mention his series hasn't had a lot of success or attention lately (Sticker Star...), there are two completely unique Mario newcomers in Smash 4 already, and the fact he is a third version of an existing character, and you can tell Paper Mario's chances are slim. That being said, he and his earlier games are cherished and he has a lot of potential for a moveset. If there is a new Paper Mario game in the works, I think he may be more of a possibility, but right now, he's got a lot of competition in and out of his series.

Want: 100%. Paper Mario's games are some of my favorite Mario games, and I'd love to see what Paper Mario would do in Smash. The great music would be an awesome bonus.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Roy prediction: 98%.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Nominations:
Wolf Link and Midna x2
Jill Valentine x3

 

[Toon612Link]

Paper Mario
Chance: 25%
Want: 80%

Roy prediction: 93.04%

Nominations:
Tetra (The Legend of Zelda) x3
Elma (Xenoblade) x2

 

[Aetheri]

Note:
Toon Link-although his attacks are very similar to Link overall is still true to Wind Waker as his specials and aerials (no kicks) reflects that of his in game attacks...His grounded Spin Attack reflects that of the Hurricane Spin (cept less OP) that he uses in game, hence the yellow glow and the trapping effect...and his dair reflects his 'stabbing Ganon in the face' from in game... yes I agree that he could have a more creative arsenal differing him from Link (I can't help but think that his Up+B should've been a Deku Leaf that works similar to Peach's Parasol, and on the ground he blasts the opponent with a gust of wind, and Final smash being the King of the Red Lions blasting bombs on the battlefield working similarly to ZSS and Snake's Final smashes)...

Falcondorf Ganondorf-Remember this moveset he uses mostly came from melee (yes I know it was more similar to Falcon then) but also remember both Wind Waker and Twilight Princess weren't released at that time and in Ocarina of Time, Ganondorf does not use a sword (the use of darkness and electricity as well as his fair are reminiscient of OoT)...In Brawl his moveset was altered to resemble that of his attacks in Twilight Princess (as seen in his Side B, ftilt and dtilt) but wasn't changed completely because fans are more familiar with melee Ganondorf...at the same time the Dead Man's Volley is a pretty notable attack from Ganondorf and has been present in every Zelda game since ALTTP, which is what I feel Ganondorf should've had to begin with...

This is the main reason why I suggested the Alternate Moves concept a couple days ago...but their movesets even though similar to their counterparts do have some basis from their games respectively, I see a lot of people complaining about both of them because 'they are not canon' but do not realize that they are in fact more true to their games than you might initially think and not just cheap clones...

but now I'm getting off topic again...Paper Mario is flat...again...

 

[a smart guy]

Paper Mario
Chance: 20%
Maybe I'm missing something here, but when did Paper Mario get so much support? The polls I've seen him in, he's been beaten by Waluigi and Daisy. I know he has moveset potential, but honestly, I doubt he's getting that many votes in the Ballot. He seems like a secondary support character. People want him, but not before other characters that they actually vote for.

Want: 50% Couldn't care either way.

Predictions: 98%

Nominate Ryu x5

 

[IvanQuote]

Paper Mario:

Chance: 5%

Could be an easy clone, but I don't see much support in the way of the ballot. Overall I'm not really feeling that if a Mario character would be added, it would be Paper Mario.

Want: 12%

I've already made my stance on Mario characters, but a unique paper Mario may be fun.

Roy Predict: Abstain. Finals are...busy this week so I'm separating myself from the Internet in its entirety.

Nom:

Homecoming Hijinx song x7

Moonstruck Blossom x3

 

[Pacack]

Sorry that I missed so many days. I stopped getting notifications from this thread for some reason?

Paper Mario:

Chance: 1%
I've never seen why a third Mario would be added rather than something like Captain Toad if we were to get a Mario newcomer, and that hasn't changed since the DLC era began. While he would be incredibly unique because of his various tools throughout the series, I just think the Mario serious could be better interested than with another Mario.

Want: 20%
He's relatively interesting, but I'd be a little sour. I loved PM:TTYD, though.

Roy Prediction: 87.9%
Many, including myself, will still be unsure whether the files mean DLC or costumes or what. Ergo, high, but not 100%.

Nominations: Ms. Pac-Man Alternate Costume x5

 

[NebulaWords]

Day 21 : PAPER MARIO
Chance: 25%
He got a huge support and a lot of fans asked for him. But here's the same argument : We don't "need" another Mario clone. Despite the different moveset he could have.

Want: 15%
Don't get me wrong, I love the Paper Mario series, especially New Super Paper Mario with Dimentio and MR.L ! THE GREEN THUNDER ! But then again, I have another Mario character in mind that I want more then Paper Mario.

ROY (Fire Emblem, not the scally one you silly peps) :
Prediction: 50%


Nominations: Geno (Super Mario RPG) x5

 

[BandanaWaddleDee]

Paper Mario Chance: 11%
Paper Mario as DLC? Flat chance. He could be unique, and could represent the Mario RPG games. The thing is, having thre Marios might not be something Sakurai would want to do, and Mario already has 7 characters.

Want: 40%
I like Paper Mario. I've played them all except the original. Also, I liked Sticker Star. That being said, I want Captain Toad a whole lot more.

Roy Prediction: 97%

Nominations:
9-Volt x5 (come on guys, am I seriously the only one nominating him?)

 

[WeirdChillFever]

Reps didn't stop Sakurai from adding two completely unique characters to the series with the most characters and it won't stop him from adding the third.

 

[cephalopod17]

Paper Mario

Chance: 35%
I don't see having three Marios being an issue. What I see being a possible issue is too many Mario characters, however, a third Mario and another Mario character could be justifiable. Mario and the Mario Series are big. It is Nintendo's flagship for a reason. His moveset potential is there and he is popular. Just not popular enough. He loses out to big names like K. Rool, Isaac, Snake, Wolf etc. It all just depends on if Sakurai believes that Paper Mario is worth adding.

Want: 75%
I like Paper Mario and I like the Paper Mario games. He could have a lot of potential, and as long as he wasn't a clone, I would not mind third Mario or another Mario character. I don't want him as much as K. Rool or Wolf, but if he got in, I would defiantly buy his DLC.

Roy Prediction: 98.5%
There are going to be some lower scores. Most will be at 95 - 100%.

Chorus Men/Kids x5

 

[WeirdChillFever]

Also something to consider:

Paper Mario probably can't pull off Mario's kicking moves and dunk effectively. (He's so stubby)
Unlike (Toon) Link, Mario has many kicking moves.

And no matter how you slice it: Arrows, Boomerangs and Bombs were the most important items in Wind Waker too and so was the Spin Attack.

 

[Serell]

Ahhh.... Paper Mario. I used to love this guy. His first two games were AWESOME, with Paper Mario: The Thousand Year Door being one of my favorite games of all time. Then Paper Mario went to (excuse my language) COMPLETE ****!!! Paper Mario for Wiii and whatever Paper Mario there was for 3ds was just... complete ****. Completely killed everything that was fun about Paper Mario and killed off the series.

Chance: 20%
Despite having "Mario" in his name, he is absolutely nothing like Mario, and has amazing moveset potential. Still, a lot of people are just going to see "Mario" and go completely crazy.

Want: 70%. The reason why my want rating isn't 100% is because of the downfall of his series.

Roy Prediction: 93.2%
I don't think the leak is real, but everyone else does, so..

Nominations: Ray (Custom Robo) x5

 

[Smasher 101]

I'm going to go ahead and do this:

Spoiler

Past Chance Scores

Wolf: 99%
King K. Rool: 50%
Dixie Kong: 50%
Inklings: 40%
Isaac: 40%
Snake: 30%
Impa: 30%
Captain Toad: 30%
Rayman: 20%
Bandana Dee: 20%
Krystal: 15%
Wonder Red: 15%
Ice Climbers: 10%
Sceptile: 5%
Banjo-Kazooie: 5%
Henry Fleming: 3%
Quote: 1%
Shantae: 1%
Promoted NPCs: 0.5%
Shovel Knight: 0.5%

Past Want Scores:

Banjo-Kazooie: 100%
King K. Rool: 100%
Ice Climbers: 100%
Isaac: 100%
Dixie Kong: 100%
Promoted NPCs: 100%
Wolf: 100%
Rayman: 70%
Captain Toad: 60%
Inklings: 55%
Snake: 50%
Impa: 50%
Wonder Red: 50%
Bandana Dee: 20%
Henry Fleming: 20%
Krystal: 5%
Quote: 5%
Shantae: 0%
Shovel Knight: 0%
Sceptile: 0%

Paper Mario's chances: 15%

Paper Mario's fairly popular, and the games got quite a bit of representation this time around. I still find Captain Toad more likely if we were to get another Mario character, but he's got a shot.

Want: 5%

I loved Paper Mario 64 and TTYD. They're respectively my third favorite and favorite Mario games, and two of my favorite games of all time. That being said, the possibility of him being playable in Smash never sparked any interest in me. I also don't think Mario needs anyone else right now, and even if it got someone I find (Captain) Toad to be a far better selection.

Like Krystal, he gets a small want score because even though I'd prefer he stayed out, he does have his merits and I might consider buying him anyway.

Roy prediction: 97.29%

Leak.

Nominations: Ryu (Street Fighter) x5

 

[Kenith]

And no matter how you slice it: Arrows, Boomerangs and Bombs were the most important items in Wind Waker too and so was the Spin Attack.

Thank you so much for saying this.
Also, I'm loving all the paper puns in this thread right now.