Rate their Chances: the DLC Edition. Day: 192: The final day

Fire_Voyager

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Shovel Knight
Chances: 5% if nintendo wants to keep it for his upcoming games
Want: 60% he would have a unique moveset and seems fun to play

Quote
Prediction:10%
He is THE seminal Indie character, made by 1 person, is in a great game, fun, challenging, with a lot of moveset potential. Nintendo was his first home in the consoles. He deserves a spot, even more than other characters that are in the game

Noms
Bub/Bob 3x
Bayonetta 2x
 

ES. Dinah

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Shovel Knight

Chances: 2%

I will be honest that I didn't know who he was until a few weeks ago. He is indie status and has unlikely chances.

Want: My brother wants him badly but as for me... 10% It seems he would be a cool fighter.

Nominations: Daily KOS-MOS x5 appreciation :)
 

Arcanir

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Shovel Knight
Chance: 1%
Shovel Knight is a popular character from a game that's really well liked, and that's really where the positives end for him. He's completely new on the scene, which means that he doesn't have a strong history or backing to his franchise (which is barely that) as of yet. He's an indie and third party, which means that he has to go through the hoops to obtain his rights without the notoriety of his other fellow third parties like Snake. He's not that notable yet as while his game is good, it's still only one and it's not to the point where he's a strong name to hold on to just based off of that one game. Finally, for all of his popularity in the west, he's very much an unknown character in Japan as they don't have his game there (yet) and they are pretty unaware of him otherwise.

For all these flaws, I don't think popularity will allow him to get in the game. He's too new, not too notable (especially in Japan), and he really has a problem standing out from Nintendo characters and other third parties (like Snake). So because of that, I don't think he'll be able to win favor and become playable in the game.

Want: 20%
He could be fun, but I have no desire to see this character in the game.
 
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SvartWolf

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Shovel Knight
Chances: 30%
I think it all boils down if Sakurai have played it game or not. looks like the kind of game that he would enjoy, still i think people is underestimating Shovel Knight popularity. his game is extremely solid even without nostalgia lenses, smart and charming, plus is a love letter to NES games. literally the only thing that burdens it is that it haven't been released in japan e shop (at least japaneses can play it on steam i believe?) but if his game gets released on japan's eshop and PSN network i'm quite sure that his popularity will only go up.

Plus a free dlc expansion is coming featuring plague knight :D and it looks like it will only grow from there (i believe that there is at least another playable boss expansion and a multiplayer dlc planed) and since the game is extremely charming, i don't think that his support would disappear.

yeah, now he may see unlikely, but if shovel knight keeps growing until 2016, if nintendo keeps doings DLCs, he will be a lot more likely.



Want: 100% i was interested on his game for a long time, and i just recently played it and just LOVE it. He became the third character that i really need in smash (alongside Ridley and Simon Belmont) I can only say, For Alchemy!!! (oh, and shovelry, yes, shovelry too)


Plus, imagine a better way to top this 2 cross overs!
 
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Shovel Knight
Chances: 30%
I think it all boils down if Sakurai have played it game or not. looks like the kind of game that he would enjoy, still i think people is underestimating Shovel Knight popularity. his game is extremely solid even without nostalgia lenses, smart and charming, plus is a love letter to NES games. literally the only thing that burdens it is that it haven't been released in japan e shop (at least japaneses can play it on steam i believe?) but if his game gets released on japan's eshop and PSN network i'm quite sure that his popularity will only go up.

Plus a free dlc expansion is coming featuring plague knight :D and it looks like it will only grow from there (i believe that there is at least another playable boss expansion and a multiplayer dlc planed) and since the game is extremely charming, i don't think that his support would disappear.

yeah, now he may see unlikely, but if shovel knight keeps growing until 2016, if nintendo keeps doings DLCs, he will be a lot more likely.
Considering that Shovel Knight has sold worst on Nintendo consoles. Shovel Knight really has lost a ton of momentum since the initial spike following the artsy omni render. As BKuppa said:
This ballot is a marathon, not a sprint, and Shovel Knight's Western pocket of fans (read: his only pocket of fans) sprinted out ahead. This is the part where they get passed by literally every other remotely big name character.

Other than that, theres no popularity. As a hardcore amiibo collector, I've been attending many release events with many dedicated Smashers, and out of curiosity asked if they knew who Shovel Knight was. I have yet to meet a single person who did. I only knew of Shovel Knight because of a one-off video that game grumps did, and even that didn't hold my interest, or the grumps interest to play the entire game. I've since seen the full game in action, and really its just plays on nostalgia. It is frustrating and the graphics have a muddy Konami vibe. The music wasn't memorable either....compared to other fantastic indie game soundtracks such as Cave Story, Binding of Isaac, Crypt of The Necrodancer, etc. Japan is not his only burden, as he has nothing going for him at the current moment. Even if Sakurai manages to play his game (Which given his busy schedule he probably won't.), it probably wont have any impact on his decision as Shovel Knight is nowhere notable enough at the moment to even be considered.

Maybe Shovel Knight will have a shot down the road, but its also very likely he will be forgotten just as many indie games tend to.
 
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Very likely to be forgotten? With the success he's getting right now, I highly doubt that, Yacht Club Games will likely continue the franchise with future sequels. Are you trying to make Shovel Knight look a piece of trash in the trash can, because he isn't that.
I get it that right now it's big but still he is an indie game character and the only thing that they achieved is trophy status but not any real interactive place shire we got plenty of indie game trophies but I don't see them becoming more than that before any indie comes in they will pick a big 3rd party character and be fore that they will pick a first party. they have a lot of things going against them. :/ Shovel Knight or any other Indie don't get special treatment just because a certain region over hypes a 8bit game. :/ sorry man.
 
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My main in Brawl, my main in Project M, hell, even in Star Fox: Assault and Star Fox: Command you'd see me playing as him.
Not a main, but I love playing as Wolf! Its funny how OP Wolf is in Assault. Very unbalanced.

-Shovel Knight
Chances: 1%
He has a better chance in being a trophy. I just don't see it happening for him.

Want: Abstain
I highly enjoyed playing through Shovel Knight, but I wouldn't want an indie character who's hardly had a history unlike Shantae.

Prediction:
Nominations: Zael 5x
 
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Shovel Knight
Chance: 1% - He's unknown in Japan and his games are not Nintendo exclusive. His only hope is for Sakurai to decide that an indie rep is needed, but even then he faces competition.
Want: 5% - His design is awfully generic, he's pretty much just a darknut with a shovel.

Quote prediction: 4%

Nominations: Wonder Red x5

DAY OVER
PLEASE WAIT WHILE I CALCULATE THE RESULTS
 
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SHOVEL KNIGHT
CHANCE: 4.47%
WANT: 23.97%
Do you guys all own literal shovels, because you all just buried today's character alive. He got lowest score in both chance and want to date. Next up we're rating Quote from cave story whose yet another indie character. Also please predict what score Ice Climbers will get tomorrow.

IMPORTANT: Roy and Ryu's nominations are reopened. :)
 
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IceBreakerXY

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Quote change:20%
nteresting character quote is.Despite being an indie you could say that he has made a bigger name for himself than a lot if characters in the roster. A lot of people know his name.His game is practically Nintendo exclusive. And his creators said they wouldn't mind if he got in.I see no problem with quote

Want:30%
I love cave story and I feel quote would fit in nicely.What pacman, sonic, and megaman did for platformers and games in general quote did for Indies. However I feel sakurai will go for someone else

Ice climbers prediction
Want:78%
Change 32%

Slippy x 5
 
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sogeki

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Yeah baby! Quote! Awesome! Cave story is actually in my top 10 games of all time. I recommend everyone to try playing it. It's just amazing.
Chance: 33.76%.
Quote has a higher chance than shovel knight because he is very well known, and liked globally. Sadly, the fact that he is on other consoles and that he is a third party buts a burden on him.
Want: 100%.

Ice Climbers Prediction: 30-40%.

Nominations: Wonder Red x5
 

AlphaSSB

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QUOTE
Chance: 5%
- Yeah... still not very likely due to indie status

Want: 0%
-
Meh... don't know, don't care

Prediction: Ice Climbers - 15% Chance/75% Want
- Note, my prediction does not reflect my opinion

Nomination: Sceptile - x5
- Best starter ever
 
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Being lazy for the umpteenth time. :)

QUOTE
Chance: 2%
Want: 5% (I don't even know what game this character is from. Google isn't being especially helpful. Someone give me a clue, please? EDIT: Just found out he's from Cave Story.)

ICE CLIMBERS
Prediction: 22% (definitely will make a comeback in the next Smash games)

NOMINATION
Elma x5

EDIT: Changed my want from 0% to 5%. Seems cool, but I do not have a strong attachment to the character. Plus, he's a third party character which we have enough of.
 
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Moydow

The fairest of them all
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Chance: 5%
Cave Story at least has the Japanese connection Shovel Knight lacks, in that its designer is Japanese, and it has been released there. I still don't see it as much more likely than Shovel Knight, though, as it's yet another indie multi-platform title.

Want: 0%
Again, I'd never heard of Quote until yesterday, so I have no connection to the character, and no reason to want him.

Ice Climbers prediction: 35%
We already know they were working on Wii U, but dropped because of the 3DS. There's a chance that, with additional development time, they could be made to work on 3DS, but it's not as if they were just dropped for some small reason. I wouldn't be particularly excited to see them back, but there are a lot of people out there who would, and if the support is there, Sakurai will try to make them work.

Nominate: Phoenix Wright x5
 
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Kalimdori

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Being lazy for the umpteenth time. :)

QUOTE
Chance: 2%
Want: 0% (I don't even know what game this character is from. Google isn't being especially helpful. Someone give me a clue, please?)

ICE CLIMBERS
Prediction: 22% (definitely will make a comeback in the next Smash games)

NOMINATION
Elma x5
You don't even know who the character is but your giving them a chance rating regardless? :p

The game is Cave Story.

@ colder_than_ice colder_than_ice could we have a little intro/picture/thingy on the front page to let people know who the character's we're raing are?
 
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Quote

Chance: 30% - Ah Quote, a popular fellow when it comes to Indie games. He has a decent spot in Nintendo as well. Aside from that indie status (and having only one game, aside from a remastered edition), I see nothing really holding him back. It depends how much of an out cry there is for him I suppose. However, those two factors really hold him back. I don't really think creator's OK affect his chance much either.

Want: 40% - Eh, OK. I'll remain neutral to him. Heck, I've never played Cave Story, but I know potential when I see it. Heck, we could pull a Male/Female Robin or an Olimar/Alph here and give him a Curly Brace alt. So, yeah, I suppose this could be work...

Nominations:
OK, I know the drill X5 for the Ice Climb- wait, pardon? They're being rated tomorrow? Excellent! Than I'll suggest two concepts.
X3 This is the last Super Smash Bros. Game (concept)
X2 The Roy leak is really a Roy alt for Marth (concept, this means another Olimar and Alph deal)

This is odd, but my Ice Climber predictions will be last, rather than before nominations. I want to remain hopeful for these two, so... would 60% be too much to ask?
 
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Strider_Bond00J

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Quote... I'm not entirely familiar with him or his game (outside of it being a platformer), but here I go.
Chances: 8%. They say he's popular in Japan or even the face of indie gaming... (Still a better chance than Reimu as I learned)

Want: 4% Not entirely familiar with him. He may have potential, but I don't think he should be warranted. If we were to get an Indie, I'd probably go with Shantae or Shovel Knight.

Edited to have past votes and Ice Climbers Prediction: 50%

Past votes
K.Rool Chance: 87% Want: 100
Banjo & Kazooie Chance: 3% Want: 14%
Isaac Chance: 70% Want: 90%
Bandanna Dee Chance: 42% Want: 50%
Captain Toad: Abstained chance and want
Krystal Chance: 36% Want: 71%
Dixie Kong Chance: 40% Want: 43%
Impa Chance: 35% Want 79%
Shantae Chance: 10% Want 54%
Inklings Chance: 31% Want: 51%
Rayman Chance: 61% Want 89%
Snake Chance: 35% Want: 50%
Wolf Chance: 98% Want: 100%
Shovel Knight Chance: 13% Want 65%
Nominations: Roy X5.
 
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Aetheri

W/E happens don't panic...
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'To be or not the be, that is the question'...
'I am your father!'
'Frankly my dear, I don't give a damn!'

oh wait a sec...

Quote

Chance: 2%

See Shovel Knight and Shantae discussions regarding Indie characters...going to be somewhat vague this time around as the whole Indie situation, not iconic enough for a third party yaddy yaddy...I feel like this is going to be a very chill day in terms of character discussion...

Want: 1%
meh...Giving 1% instead of 0% because sure why not...

Prediction: 51%
Ice Climber Ice Climber
I honestly have no idea how people will rate these guys, they are returning vets, got a lot of fans, but were cut from the game due to technical restrictions on 3DS, will Sakurai get them to work properly for the 3DS? or will they remain MIA? or will we get a solo Ice Climber DLC? Or is the whole 3DS thing just orchestrated because Sakurai no longer wants them in the game and is just trying to cover his @ss? WHO KNOWS?....well Sakurai does, but...I'm just gonna go half way because I got no idea how people will rate....

Nominations:
Concept: NPC's become Playable x5
 

Seanp12

Smash Journeyman
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Quote
Chance: 10%
And you can throw Quote in the boat with them [Shantae and Shovel Knight], too.
Want: 5%
And that goes for my want score also.
Ice Climbers
Prediction: 28%
Since we already know why the Ice Climbers are gone, I don't expect many high scores.

Nominations:
Abraham Lincoln (Code Name: S.T.E.A.M.) x1
Ridley x1
Concept: Any Star Fox character DLC released near Star Fox U release date x3
 

Kalimdori

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To compare with my other ratings. I'm of the opinion that Nintendo will milk the DLC hype train for as much cash as they can, and recent events have only strengthened that notion. As such, I expect plenty of DLC characters.

:wolf: Chance: 99%
Want: 100%

King K. Rool Chance 80%
Want: 75%

Bandanna Dee Chance: 70%
Want: 95%

Isaac Chance: 65%
Want: 85%

Captain Toad Chance: 58%
Want: 90%

Inkling Chance: 50%
Want: 20%

Rayman Chance: 40%
Want: 100%

:snake: Chance: 40%
Want: 60%

Dixie Chances: 39%
Want: 49%

Impa Chance: 25%
Want: 60%

Banjo Chance: 20%
Want: 100%

Krystal Chance: 15%
Want: 0%

Shantae Chance: 5%
Want: 15%

Shovel Knight Chance: 3%
Want: 70%

Quote Chance: 10%



Quote is the main character of a game called Cave Story, a game made by a single person over the course of 5 years, which he self-published and released for FREE. Basically, the ultimate example of an indie title, a single guy making a game in his spare time for others to play, without the help of any big studios to create or publish it. It was met with critical acclaim, and paved the way for other Indie developers to do the same.

Basically, an icon of Indie games.

I don't think it's particularly likely that we will get an Indie representative as a character, but if we DO get an Indie representative, I think it would be Quote. Shantae is losing Nintendo exclusivity soon, Shovel Knight's brand new, and both aren't known worldwide. But Quote has worldwide popularity, his game was ported multiple times to Nintendo consoles and ONLY Nintendo consoles, he's got plenty to draw from for a moveset, and his importance to Indie gaming as a whole may be just enough of a "Special Case" for Sakurai to consider including him.

Want: 95%

I tend to say this a lot in regards to Smash speculation, but I mean it more here then any other time: SCREW the Nintendo purists, Quote is awesome. I adore Cave Story and love Quote, the game has got a fantastic soundtrack, fun gameplay, and a gripping story. I think he'd be fun to play, and I'd love to see Cave Story get more recognition for what it has done for the Indie gaming scene.

Plus it might get Pixel to make/finish the Cave Story sequel he half-hinted at :p

Ice Climber Predictions: 14%

People will rate them low, when in all honesty we have no idea what their chances are, unless someone here works on the Smash team and knows if a workaround can be made to get them to work on the 3DS.

Noms: Any NPC becomes playable x5
 
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Quote
Quote huh at least he's somewhat decent.

Chance: 5%
Even though he's somewhat decent just don't see it. If you really want to know as why just look at the Shovel Knight and Shantae discussions from a couple of pages back. Indie character, not iconic, not that big deal in Japan, third party, something Sakuari would not go for all the trouble for before getting a first party character. I feel like I'm repeating myself whenever an Indie character is suggested but then again that's how unlikely they really are.

Want: 5%
The reason why I say he decent enough was because at least he's somewhat known in Japan unlike Shovel Knight and Shantae. I only have some memories with Cave Story but not that much, only because I didn't play it that often and I don't have a lot of attachment at least not much.

Ice Climbers Predictions 25%:
Wish I can give them higher because I miss these little guys so much. If they can get them to work on the 3DS and the Wii U then yes bring them back. Cause when I realized they were cut I felt like there was a whole in the roster. I hope I wasn't the only one that felt that way about the Ice Climbers.
Nominations: Roy
 
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Kalimdori

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something Sakuari would not go for all the trouble for before getting a first party character.
Yes, I can only imagine how hard it would be to get the rights to a character from a guy who, more likely then not, would give you the rights to the character with very-few-to-no-strings attached. Or just hire the guy to help you make the character in Smash.

People are treating Indie's and third parties as if getting them in is the same sort of deal. It isn't even remotely the same situation.
 
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You don't even know who the character is but your giving them a chance rating regardless? :p

The game is Cave Story.

@ colder_than_ice colder_than_ice could we have a little intro/picture/thingy on the front page to let people know who the character's we're raing are?
I really should have given the name "cave story" in my last post, I've edited it now. I'll try to get a picture up now.
 

Nimbostratus

Smash Journeyman
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Quote
Chance- 5%
Compared to my Shovel Knight score, +2 for actually having Japanese ties, -1 for not being as recent, -1 for not having as much ballot support.
Want- 5%
Seems to have a bit more of a historical impact than Shovel Knight, so that goes for something.

Ice Climbers Predictions- 19%
I'm glad this day is finally coming up (how did it take this long?). Scores could be all over the place. Who really knows what their chances are of coming back? I sure don't.

Nominations:
Any NPC becomes playable x5
 

Serell

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Messages
169
Quote

Chance: 20%
Hey, look, an actual deserving indie character *glares at Shovel Knight*. If Nintendo was looking for an Indie rep, Quote, along with Shantae, would be the most qualified candidate. Nintendo's been nice to indies, so who knows? Quotes chances depend on if Sakurai wants an indie rep in Smash Bros or not.

Want: 60%
I for one am all for having an indie rep in Smash Bros. Indies have made a meaningful impact in the gaming industry and they deserve some recognition. And Quote looks like he would be really fun to play.

Ice Climbers prediction: 30%
Ice Climbers are very well loved for being the most adorable Smash fighter, so it all depends on whether Sakurai can get them to work on the 3DS or not.

Nomination: Ray (Custom Robo) x5
 
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D

Deleted member

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Chance: 15%

That chance rating is the highest I'll ever give any indie character. Why? Because out of all the indie characters who aren't Steve from Minecraft or Freddy Fazbear (both of which have never appeared on a Nintendo platform), Quote from Daisuke Amaya's Cave Story is the closest to being legendary. Is he anywhere near as iconic as Mega Man, Sonic, Pac-Man, Snake, or Ryu? No, but if Sakurai wanted only one character to represent Nintendo's current relationship with indies, Quote is the top contender because...
  • He not only has more popularity and recognition than other indie characters including Shantae and Shovel Knight, but unlike those two, his game was developed and released in Japan, so he is known there.
  • Cave Story is one of the earlier indie games and a majorly influential one at that.
  • Yes, Cave Story originated on PC, but it has been ported once on Wii, once on DSi, and TWICE on 3DS. The Wii version and one of the 3DS ports were never released in Japan, but still, Quote has plenty of history with Nintendo just from ONE GAME alone.
His chances are as low as they are because of a few important questions: Does Quote have a sizable following on Nintendo platforms? Is there enough demand for him appearing in Smash, and are enough fans willing to fork over money for DLC? Is he commonly voted on the ballot? Does Sakurai see any moveset potential in this guy? I can't answer those myself, but it is likely that Sakurai will prioritize first party and maybe a select few non-indie third party characters over him.

Yeah, Amaya may want him in, but I'm sure nearly every indie developer wants their flagship character to be in Smash for publicity's sake, so that probably doesn't mean much. All he did was give Sakurai the approval to use him, nothing more.

Want: 60%

I played the demo for the Wii version of Cave Story and didn't think much of it, but I'd be happy for his fans.

Prediction: Ice Climbers - 30%

They'll probably be seen by most as the least likely veterans not named Snake.

Nomination: Zael x5
 
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Quote
Chance: 5%
Like I've said before, if more 3rd parties are considered, others would be first in line to get a spot before him.

Want: 4%
Only got to see gameplay before and his games were fine he also looks cool but I'm not sure if I'd want him any more than Shovel Knight or Shantae.

Prediction
Ice Climbers: 80%
Popo and Nana need to make it back!

Nominations:
Mach Rider x5
 
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Quote:

Chance: 10%
Highest rating I'll give to an Indie. I think Quote's got a semi-decent chance, but still very unlikely.

Want: 30%
I like the idea a bit, and out of all Indie options I think he's the one who -should- be added. But I still don't think he's all that iconic and I'm mixed on Cave Story.

Prediction:
Oh, its Ice Climbers?
40%, I think it'll be heavily mixed. However, I think they'll get lower ratings than high due to the whole "planned but could not get working on 3DS" ordeal.


Nominations:
Lip (Panel de Pon) x5
 
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K. Rool:
Day missed.

Banjo-Kazooie:
Chance: 9%
Want: 85%

Isaac:
Chance: 55%
Want: 75%

Bandana Dee:
Chance: 40%
Want: 100%

Captain Toad:
Chance: 45%
Want: 100%

Krystal:
Chance: 25%
Want: 50%

Dixie Kong:
Chance: 66%
Want: 100%

Impa:
Chance: 28%
Want: 100%

Shantae:
Chance: 1%
Want: 5%

Inklings:
Chance: 62%
Want: 70%

Rayman:
Chance: 33%
Want: 90%

:snake:
Day missed. Whoops.

:wolf:
Chance: 100%
Want: 80%

Shovel Knight

Chance: 0.3%
Want: 0%



Chance: 0.5%
As far as indies go, he's the kingpin. He is however, still an indie, a multiplatform one at that and therefore hugely unlikely. Also even the most famous indie(or at the very least; one of them) doesn't compare to our current third party line up.
Whilst Snake proves this point irrelevant; I feel it's worth mentioning he's more associated with PC gaming than Nintendo too, opposed to Shantae who is also multiplatform but more associated with Nintendo.

Unlke Shantae and Shovel Knight though he very rarely gets brought up in ballot polls which I've taken into account here.

Want: 3%
Cave Story is a big deal in the indie world; it's a good game. Heck, a great game. I still don't want an indie in Smash when there's genuine Nintendo stars and world famous third party mascots waiting in the wings though.

Are we done rating third party indies for a while? I want to give something a double digit in chance and want.


:popo: Prediction: 34%
Them 3DS limitations. Well loved thanks to two times vet status in Smash so it won't be quite in the bottom third.

Nominations:
Wonder Red X 5
 

Delzethin

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So here's what he told me...

...Ah, screw it. No one would've gotten that joke.

--

Quote

Chance: 6%

We're practically in the presence of a legend. Quote hails from the game Cave Story, also known as the original indie game. Cave Story's success, in a way, paved the way for all the other indie games out there, so he's arguably the most iconic of all the indie characters. He gains a variety of weapons and some additional equipment through the course of the game, so he has a level of moveset potential as well.

Unfortunately, that's where the strong points end. While he's iconic among indies, all it makes him is a big fish in a small pond--he still isn't at the level of the big third party icons, as evidenced by some of the people in this very thread not knowing who he is. While we've seen some lesser-known newcomers, they've all been Nintendo-owned; all the third party additions are iconic, and we've seen nothing yet to imply that's changed. Furthermore, his moveset potential has a glaring flaw: the lack of close range attacks. Nearly all of his available weapons are straight up laser weapons or other firearms, making him difficult to implement in Smash where too many projectile attacks and too few melee ones would lead to polarizing matchups (Even Mega Man has melee attacks for half his moveset!). The only thing Quote has resembling a direct attack is a thrown sword that also happens to be very much a secondary weapon. It'd feel off having him use it for his A attacks when he didn't use it in that way in his game, and there's already a strong dislike for the idea of new swordsmen.

Quote's biggest problem right now, though? Despite his status, he...isn't getting a whole lot of ballot support. All of these strengths and flaws won't matter to begin with if he doesn't get enough nominations to be considered...and his odds don't look so good.

Maybe one of these days someone'll make a Smash-style fighter for all the indie games out there. It'd give the likes of Quote or Shantae or Shovel Knight a chance they probably won't ever have in the big leagues...

Want: 35%
Unlike the other indies we've rated, I actually have played Cave Story, and it's pretty damn good. Quote's intriguing as far as characters go, but at the same time I wonder how well he'd work in the context of Smash.

That, and there're a lot of other characters I'm more interested in seeing get in. No hard feelings, buddy.


Ice Climbers Prediction: 35.75%
This one'll be polarizing. Some will argue they have time now to get them working right in the 3DS version, while others will question whether they'd be willing to take the risk. Some will bring up the idea of a solo Ice Climber, while others will question how well it'd fit them at this point...


Nominations: Sceptile x5
Mega Sceptile could actually be interesting as a Final Smash. Not only would Sceptile gain power and even greater speed, the Lightning Rod ability could translate into a passive Gravitational Pull effect, drawing in and nullifying any energy projectiles for as long as the transformation lasts!
 
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PK_Wonder

Smash Lord
Joined
Jun 19, 2010
Messages
1,179
Quote

Chances - 2.33%
I believe he has the best chances of any indie. He is the grandfather of Nintendo's good relationship with them, but again, he's still an indie, and I don't want to beat that horse dead. Not an impossibility, but rather obscure in the grand scheme of things. This wouldn't be a problem if he were first party, but he's not. Maybe if we get Cave Story on Wii U, a sequel, and lots of fan support, he might legitimately have a chance on the next console's Smash. He's certainly played an important role in gaming history.

Want - 40%
I wouldn't mind him "taking a slot" as much as most third party characters, as his game is fantastic, and it would be wonderful to have a true gunner character that isn't a Mii but also fits in the game.

Nominate Simon Belmont x5
 
Joined
Jul 27, 2014
Messages
1,624
Location
France
Quote chances: 0.95%
I originally planned to give him a much lower score, but after reading some comments here I finally gave him a score higher than an "Almost impossible, negligible chance" rating. However, I think his biggest and most likely only hope to make into Smash is if Sakurai and/or Nintendo wants a playable representative for an indie character. Considering his game is pretty much the one who made indie gaming a thing, he really stands out among indie characters and if he get one I think it's most likely going to be him. That said, he's still far away from current third-party characters in Smash when it comes to fame, and a lot of people are unfamiliar with him, which is a really big obstacle for him, but who knows, maybe being the playable indie representative would make him worthy enough to be a "special case".

Quote want: 5%
I'll be nice towards Quote considering his historical significance and the fact he doesn't seem to have an head-scratching worthy amount of vocal support. Whereas I honestly see nothing special in Shantae and Shovel Knight, Quote being announced for Smash wouldn't feel as random as them to me. That said, I still think he would still feel kinda underwhelming when compared to other third-party characters currently in Smash, and I don't really see the need for an indie gaming representative. I think he would be perfectly fine as an Assist Trophy instead of a playable character, as he would be higher in the Smash hierarchy than a trophy cameo (comparison to CommanderVideo) to acknowledge his standing-out status, but not put at the same level as third-parties currently in Smash.

(Insert 75% of original want score cut because no custom moves for Mewtwo rant here)

Ice Climbers prediction: 22.30%
I'm expecting a lot of pessimistic ratings, but also a respectable amount of optimistic ones.

Nominating:
Concept: DLC characters get custom moves (including Mewtwo through patching) x5

Speaking of which, I'm half-expecting Mewtwo's custom moves to be added in the game through an update tomorrow (maybe alongside Miiverse stage and Tournament mode). However I'm fully prepared to the possibility that neither will happen and I still nominate this concept for if this outcome happens. But I'd much rather have Mewtwo's custom moves confirmed for tomorrow and see all my nominations go to waste rather than fearing DLC characters to be stuck to 1111 moveset even in a custom ruleset.
 
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NebulaWords

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Apr 4, 2015
Messages
220
Location
Currently surviving the Working World
DAY 14 : QUOTE

Chance :
15%
So far, I've learned that Quote is quite an icon for the indie games, and to be honest, if an indie game should have a rep', it would be this guy. But Shantae (and Shovel Knight) are pushing him into the shadows so his chances are pretty low. But ! I've never heard of him BEFORE the Smash Ballot. He appeared out of nowhere and the Smash Ballot have done a good job at promoting and spread his awareness in the web...

Want :
23%
He seems interresting and again, if an indie character should appear in the rooster, it should be him. Buut I don't know a lot about him...So yeah.

ICE CLIMBERS :
PREDICTION : 18%
Sadly, the 3DS limitations have kept the IC from returning and I don't think Sakurai wants to spend so much time to make it work. But there's a possibility he would.

Nominations :
Geno (Super Mario RPG) x5
 
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