Rate their Chances: the DLC Edition. Day: 192: The final day

[Aetheri]

AT's and bosses getting victory themes and animations confirmed!

Seriously though, I would love it so much if Ridley could actually win a match in Pyrosphere

...or better yet....heck you already know what I'm going to say....

 

[sogeki]

Shovel Knight-
He probably would have had an easier chance to get into smash if he wasn't ported to non Nintendo consoles recently. Even if he wasn't, I think it would still be pretty hard.
Chance: 21%. He has the fan vote, so that gives him an extra six percent.
Want: 77.85%

Nominatios: Wonder Red x5


Edit: Whoops! I meant Chance: 21%. 31 is way too high.

 

[Deleted member]

Shovel Knight

Chance: 0.1% 5%

Much like Shantae, he may be popular for indie standards, but his game hasn't been released in Sakurai's homeland of Japan...yet. When I stated in a previous post that I think there's a higher chance of Smash getting its first indie character than Snake returning, I meant in general; I wasn't referring to anyone in particular.

Want: 80%

I have yet to play Shovel Knight, but I imagine myself enjoying the game's eponymous protagonist as a Smash Bros. fighter.

Prediction: Quote - 10%

He may be the closest any indie character will ever get to being legendary, but that status won't stop people from giving him harshly low chance ratings for simply being, and I quote (no pun intended), "indie."

Nomination: Zael x5

 

[Senselessbreak]

Shovel Knight:

Chance: 0.01%
Want 0%

This game's tagline is "Nintendo All Stars Do Battle." Two key words here....."Nintendo" and "Star.," which Shovel Knight is neither. Sakurai has said he is very picky when it comes to picking guest characters, and if they are chosen they have to be iconic and notable. Lets take a look at some other guest characters for comparison:

Pacman: 35 years old. Has appeared in over 70 titles....not counting ports.
Sonic: 23 years old. Has appeared in over 80 titles.
Megaman: 27 years old. Over 70 games with the original megaman, and over 50 additional spin off titles.
Ryu: 27 years old. Around 45 games and appearances.

Shovel Knight: <1 year old. 1 game.

"But hes very popular!!!!11!!!"

-Maybe in the indie community, but just because you are a star of a high school play, doesn't mean you are a star of Hollywood. Theres a big line to draw here. Most gamers have no idea who he is still.

"But he feels like a Nintendo character that never was!!""

-Just because hes a 2D platformer does not mean hes a Nintendo character, There was an ENTIRE generation of 2D sidescrollers in the 90s. Castlevania, Adventure Island, Bonk, Jazz Jackrabbit, and the list goes on and on and on. The look and aesthetics of the game are more Konami like, rather than something Nintendo would produce. Many people who jump on his bandwagon probably werent around for this generation, and his games are essentially their first non Nintendo sidescroller.

"But hes a throwback and tribute to Nintendo!"

-Whether he is or isn't doesn't matter. People make tributes to Nintendo all the time. Having Links down thrust doesn't make him any more likely than Scrooge McDuck. Egorapter has made many animated videos to Nintendo games, yet we don't beg for his grump character to be in Smash. Maybe those aren't video game examples, but the creators of GTA have said the original Zelda's open world helped inspire the GTA games. Surely that means GTA deserves a character right?!?!..... >.<


Other things against him:

-Unknown in Japan
-Multi-platform title (With guests such as Kratos and Battle Toads)
-Hard to relate to characters without a face to express. (Series like Fire Emblem, Star Fox, Kid Icarus get so many characters because their characters have a lot of personality and are easy to relate to.

Nominate: Chorus Kids x 5

 

[A Distant Demon]

Im pretty sure i put 93% as my prediction so im assuming i won noms. Could be wrong so if i am go back to 221 like i have been. Trying not to get cocky. If im wrong i blame being tired.

Shovel knight

Chance
.0001
multiplat. Extremely new. Unkown in japan. a fad in the east who is already losing popularity. Not an icon. bonus content for other systems. The list goes on and the dude has serious issues to tackle. And ni him coming to japan doesnt help much. He is still very far out and very likely multiplat there as well.

want 0
this guy is so new its not even funny. I really would prefer many many characters before this guy.

Prediction 4%

Noms
4 wonder red
2 ridley
4 viridi

 

[sogeki]

"Unknown in Japan."
Little Mac wasn't extremely well known in Japan either.

 

[BandanaWaddleDee]

Im pretty sure i put 93% as my prediction so im assuming i won noms. Could be wrong so if i am go back to 221 like i have been. Trying not to get cocky. If im wrong i blame being tired.

Shovel knight

Chance
.0001
multiplat. Extremely new. Unkown in japan. a fad in the east who is already losing popularity. Not an icon. bonus content for other systems. The list goes on and the dude has serious issues to tackle. And ni him coming to japan doesnt help much. He is still very far out and very likely multiplat there as well.

Chance 0
this guy is so new its not even funny. I really would prefer many many characters before this guy.

Prediction 4%

Noms
4 wonder red
2 ridley
4 viridi

You put chance twice

 

[A Distant Demon]

"Unknown in Japan."
Little Mac wasn't extremely well known in Japan either.

Little mac isnt 3rd party.

Or in only 1 game

Or on other systems.

And was at least released in japan

You put chance twice

shhh i said im tired.

Fixed. Thanks

 

[sogeki]

Little mac isnt 3rd party.

Or in only 1 game

Or on other systems.

Okay, fair. But for the one game thing, can we count Hex Heroes?

Edit: Of course we can't, it's not even out yet. My b.

 

[Parallel_Falchion]

Shovel Knight
Chance - 2%
Yesterday we rated Wolf, who had everything going for him. Today we rate Shovel Knight, who has almost nothing going for him. He's a video game character...and that's about it.

Want - 0%
No, no, and no.
Shovel Knight might be the only character we'll rate that I'll give 0% want to. His presence would be the epitome of getting in for being recent. No one will care about him in a few years. Even if we think an indie rep should get in Smash, there are at least three others who should have higher priority (Shantae, Commander Video, and Quote). There are probably at least 100 characters who would make more sense than Shovel Knight.

Nominate Toon Zelda x5.

 

[Strider_Bond00J]

Day 14: Strike the Earth!!
Shovel Knight Chances: 13%
He's quite a small figure in comparison to many other third party legends, but he's got a seal of approval from his creator and a strong fanbase that would love to see him. The Shovel Blade and the magic spells he has could prove useful in combat and could make him a possibly unique character. And for his alts, I can easily imagine the Order of No Quarter being useful in making alternate costumes for him. The challenges I see for Shovel Knight is how small his series is, and it would have to hold the test of time and become a successful series, not to mention continually support or have main games on Nintendo consoles.

Wants: 65% I've only played about an hour or so of Shovel Knight, and I like his game for sure, and it'd be great if Shovel Knight was in the game, but I wouldn't mind if he weren't included since he's quite a small figure in terms of historical pioneering in games, nor does he go far back enough with Nintendo to feel guaranteed.

Nominations: Black Mage X2
Young Link X1
Pichu X2

Just a question - after Quote's chances have been rated, would the next ratings after Quote be Ryu and Roy since they're votes are unfreezed on the 27th, or would they need to catch up before we rate them on separate days?

 

[CaptainAmerica]

Interesting - I was expecting Wolf to get #1 highest chance, but I didn't think he'd miss #1 most wanted...

Ok, on to Shovel Knight...

You know, I was going to write another tirade just like I'd done before, but I've come down with a bit of a cold while trying to bring Bucky back around - Winter Soldier really lives up to his name - so I'm just going to leave it short today.

Honestly, see everything I've previously said about Shantae &c. I think @ S Senselessbreak said it all better than I ever could.

This games tagline is "Nintendo All Stars Do Battle." Two key words here....."Nintendo" and "Star.," which Shovel Knight is neither. Sakurai has said he is very picky when it comes to picking guest characters, and if they are chosen they have to be iconic and notable. Lets take a look at some other guest characters for comparison:

Pacman: 35 years old. Has appeared in over 70 titles....not counting ports.
Sonic: 23 years old. Has appeared in over 80 titles.
Megaman: 27 years old. Over 70 games with the original megaman, and over 50 additional spin off titles.
Ryu: 27 years old. Around 45 games and appearances.

Shovel Knight: <1 year old. 1 game.

"But hes very popular!!!!11!!!"

-Maybe in the indie community, but just because you are a star of a high school play, doesn't mean you are a star of Hollywood. Theres a big line to draw here. Most gamers have no idea who he is still.

"But he feels like a Nintendo character that never was!!""

-Just because hes a 2D platformer does not mean hes a Nintendo character, There was an ENTIRE generation of 2D sidescrollers in the 90s. Castlevania, Adventure Island, Bonk, Jazz Jackrabbit, and the list goes on and on and on. The look and aesthetics of the game are more Konami like, rather than something Nintendo would produce. Many people who jump on his bandwagon probably werent around for this generation, and his games are essentially their first non Nintendo sidescroller.

"But hes a throwback and tribute to Nintendo!"

Whether he is or isn't doesn't matter. People make tributes to Nintendo all the time. Having Links down thrust doesn't make him any more likely than Scrooge McDuck. Egorapter has made many animated videos to Nintendo games, yet we don't beg for his grump character to be in Smash. Maybe those aren't video game examples, but the creators of GTA have said the original Zelda's open world helped inspire the GTA games. Surely that means GTA deserves a character right?!?!..... >.<


Other things against him:

-Unknown in Japan
-Multi-platform title (With guests such as Kratos and Battle Toads)
-Hard to relate to characters without a face to express. (Series like Fire Emblem, Star Fox, Kid Icarus get so many characters because their characters have a lot of personality and are easy to relate to.

Chance: 1%
Want: 0%

Predictions: Quote?
Who is that? Not a great start...
Chance: 6.75%, Want 38.7%

Nominations: Promotions x5

 

[Aetheri]

When Indie's collide....

Shovel Knight

Chance: 3%
Nothing really needs to be said that hasn't already been said with Shantae, except Shovel Knight is a newer character...
His game is set to be released in Japan (I believe) but that doesn't really guarantee anything...(Rayman's got games in Japan too)
that said he is gaining some popularity, especially with that nice Smashified render that he's got. But he's still Indie so he'd be lucky to get noticed at least...

Want: 10%
Not too familiar with the character, or his game's I feel like he's got a decent moveset potential using a Shovel and Anchor and magic and chucking rupees at his enemies and whatnot...that said the character is somewhat uninteresting to me as he heavily reminds me of several Zelda enemies (as a main protagonist that isn't really that good that he reminds me of a common enemy)...
Like this Darknut for example...

Then again I haven't played his game or really dove into his storyline and plot too much so I might change my mind down the road...

Prediction: 2.5%
Quote
Another Indie, no different except even less likely....

Nominations:
@ PK_Wonder decided to change my nom to get this topic up earlier, it is relevant to my other noms which most likely won't be talked about in a while anyways...
Concept: NPCs Become Playable x5

 

[AlphaSSB]

SHOVEL KNIGHT​

Chance: 5%
- Yeah... probably not likely due to indie status

Want: 5%
- Meh... don't know, don't care

Prediction: Quote - 5% Chance/10% Want
- Note, my prediction does not reflect my opinion

Nomination: Sceptile - x5
- Best starter ever

--​

Yeah, this was definetly my shortest post. I have nothing really to say about Shovel Knight, and I'm 100% sure I'll have nothing to say about Quote tomorrow. Happy to see Wolf dominated the 'Chance' category, but I' both shocked and frightened that he didn't top King K. Rool in the 'Want' category. Noone gets shoed-in, and I'll be damned if King K. Rool gets in before Wolf does. Got nothing against him, don't get me wrong... agian... but I'm just a Star Fox fan

 

[smileMasky]

Oh another Indie sorry SK fans got be realistic
Shovel Knight
Chances: 1%
As much as I like some indie game characters to be in smash it just does not work like that. I don't care if ballot or not Indies have to try WAY harder to ever be in smash bros. I get that they may feel like a nintendo franchise don't think that will some how magically will grant him THE ALMIGHTY POWER OF SMASH STATUES""". I think it really needs to be a lot bigger than it is and either way Indies are a shot in the dark.
Want: 0%
sorry I don't get the hype about this game and This is coming from a guy who loves 8bit pixel art and chip tunes. I guess it's because the colour pallet feels a bit muddy? I saw a few game play videos its ok it's really just feeding off of nostalgia. But hey that's just my Opinion.
Prediction
Quote 4%
He is a wanted Indie character but I got to be realistic and not a lot of people know him so : P

Nomination
Ninten x3
Django x2

 

[Deleted member]

I'll take the honor of being amongst the few who saw Shovel Knight and pretty much... just... like him.

His chances are low, but i think it would be super cool to see this shovel warrior smash it up in battle.

 

[Nintendotard]

More indies? From my Shantae explanation I won't be really describing it. But refer to SenselessBreak's post

Chance: 2%
Want: 0%

Prediction:
Quote: 0% - Sorry, who?

Nominations:
Paper Mario x4
Daisy

 

[Serell]

Shovel Knight
Chance: 2%
He has literally nothing going for him. Ok, he does have one thing going for him, which is that he would fit in with the rest of the Smash crew. I could totally see Shovel Knight teaming up with the likes of Mario and it would look kinda cool.

Want: 5%
Shovel Knight is cool and all, and I would LOVE an indie rep, but there are many more much deserving indie reps.

Quote prediction: 10%
Hey, look! An indie rep that is 100x more deserving than Shovel Knight.

Nominations: Ray (Custom Robo) x5

 

[Chandeelure]

-Shovel Knight:

Chances: 3%
Want: 20%

-Quote Prediction: 7%

-Nominations: Pichu X5

 

[Seanp12]

Shovel Knight
Chance: 10%
He's in the same boat as Shantae, as far as I'm concerned

Want: 5%
And that goes for my want score also.

Quote
Prediction: 10%
And you can throw Quote in the boat with them, too.

Nominations:
Henry Fleming (Code Name: S.T.E.A.M.) x1
Abraham Lincoln (Code Name: S.T.E.A.M.) x1
Ridley x1
Concept: Any Star Fox character DLC released near Star Fox U release date x2

 

[IceBreakerXY]

shovel knight change:3%
he's is no where near as likely or iconic as indie characters like shantae and quote to start.He's multi-platform,has never been in japan(atleast japanese companies know of shantae and quote) and is way to recent.

shovel knight want:3%
would much rather have shantae or quote if we get an indie rep.Or bomberman is we do get a 3rd party rep not name ryu

quote prediction:10%
i feel he's gonna do better than both quote and shantae

slippy x 5

 

[A10theHero]

This is so interesting, I'm willing you teach me more

I like to get how people could see supports, it helps me in the long run

Hmm, well I don't have any degrees in Psychology or anything, so I don't consider myself "worthy" enough of being your teacher. The most credibility I have is a 5 on the AP Psychology exam. But we can talk about it if you want. Though I recommend using other sources as well. Social Psychology really delves into group interactions in general, so if you can take a class on that, I would heavily recommend it.

Anyways, it's evaluation time! :3

Spoiler

I've always wanted to do that.

Shovel Knight
Chance: 7%

+ Unique character (lots of potential in his moveset)
~+ New game coming out (relevance--though, again, this isn't really important)
- 3rd party
- Popularity is limited (and a little superficial due to Artsy Omni's video)
- Doesn't have a unique relationship with Nintendo
~- Relatively unknown in Japan
This last point warrants some discussion. Just because a character is unknown in certain places does not necessarily mean that he/she/it has no chance of being in Smash. Marth and Roy are examples to this. However, what is important is whether the developers know of the character's existence or not and see moveset potential. The audience can still receive a character well regardless (again, this happened with Marth and Roy). But the developers must know about the character and see potential in him/her. This is where the similarities between Marth/Roy and Shovel Knight stop. Sakurai knew of Fire Emblem and so he added these characters in even though a minority of individuals in other countries knew about this series. Because Shovel Knight has no games in Japan, it is probable that Sakurai will barely know anything about him and therefore not see much potential in him. I'm sorry Shovel Knight fans--his chances are slim. Even my rating is extremely generous.

Want: 90%
Like always, sure, why not. Even if a character isn't Spyro, the more, the merrier!

Prediction:
Quote
Chance: 3%

Nomination:
Spyro the Dragon [x5]

 

[SL the Pyro]

Shovel Knight
Justice in spades! ...Well, justice in the sense of him not getting into the game.

Chance: 10%
I like Shovel Knight as much as the next guy, but if we're comparing his situation to that of the other third-party/indie characters in the ballot, his credentials frankly just don't measure up.

Pros:
+Popularity: Arguably the main (or only?) reason Shovel Knight is as much of a contender for a DLC slot as he is. He is loved by America, and with the continuing major updates to the game that love is not going to die out anytime soon; his fanbase is huge, and it is loud.
+Playability: Something many fans argue in his favour is the number of powers and abilities he has in his game that he can bring over, and to be fair it's easily enough to make an interesting and unique moveset.

Cons:
-Exposure: Shovel Knight has had enough localization to make it around one half of the world, but the other half - including Japan - has not even had its localization started yet, so as far as the Japanese know, Shovel Knight may not even exist. Fire Emblem and Earthbound had the advantage of being Nintendo games when they were promoted overseas with Smash as the medium, something that Shovel Knight isn't blessed with, so an entirely different fanbase might not be as receptive of a purely-unknown character.
-Lifetime: He's barely been around for a year, if that. Quite a few competitors in the ballot have a huge leg-up on him here.
-Legacy: Very muted. Shovel Knight is available on the 3DS and Wii U, but this is because Yacht Club Games is aiming to put it on all relevant gaming platforms rather than make a commitment to Nintendo.

Want: 20%
I'm being generous here since I'd be interested in how his moveset would turn out, but otherwise I could definitely do without him. Let's face it: most of his popularity stems from being new, and it will likely evaporate once he stops being everyone's flavour of the month. I can fully see people coming to regret their votes once they outgrow him.

----------

Quote
Prediction: 25%
A bit of a oddball. Whereas Shovel Knight is popular in the West and unknown in the East, and Shantae is gradually gaining popularity everywhere but is muddled by being somewhat obscure, Quote has been known for a while now but has had his popularity dropping as time goes on (so basically Shovel Knight's eventual fate). He has greater notoriety than the other two indie characters due to Nicalis keeping him on life support, but I think it's not even remotely enough to secure him a spot in Smash...

----------

Nomination: Ice Climbers x5

 

[Troykv]

Shovel Knight

Chance: 0.1%

His case is similar to Shantae's ... but having everything even more against him

Want: Abstain

It's hard for me to describe this character in that regard.

Predictions:

Quote Chance: 10%

Nominations:

Micaiah x2
Tiki x2
kos-mos x1

 

[MatvaradoxD]

Shovel Knight
Chance: 20%
Very popular lately but I think there are other 3rd party characters that would get in before him like Snake, Rayman, and possibly Shantae

Want: 15%
Can't say I really want him in since I haven't played his games yet lol but I'm sure they're a whole lot of fun. He'll probably blow up later on once he starts earning worldwide fan bases. While I don't think he has a chance now to get in Smash, he sure does have something special that has been capturing people's attention. I don't know if it's just the retro feel to his games or just simply having a unique concept about him as a character but he really blew up. I'll probably get hooked soon and will wanna end up changing my opinion and want him 100% lol. I could picture Sakurai showing off a picture of Shovel Knight together with Zelda's Phantom if he ends up joining the game lol.

Prediction
Quote: 11%

Nominations:
Mach Rider x4
Slippy Toad x1

 

[TallT]

Shovel Knight

Chance: 0.75%

+Highly requested by fans (west only)

-Only one game
-Indie
-3rd party
-On multiple systems (with exclusive content)
-Not well known worldwide
-Not iconic
-Has not been around for even a year
-No release in Japan (yet)

Shovel Knight is the one character we have rated so far that has the most in his way and is the most unlikely.

Want: 0.01%

Quote prediction: 7%

Nominate: *Concept: Any NPC becomes playable x5

 

[Roaring Salsa]

Shovel Knight

Chance: 15%
Everything would work in his favor if it weren't for him being a third party. When you have to compete against the likes of Ryu, Snake, Banjo and Rayman for probably maximum two dlc spots reserved for 3rd parties, you'll have a really hard time.

Want: 100%
Would he bring a diverse and fun to play moveset? Yes.
What about music tracks? They're pretty great and catchy.
But don't you think he'll be forgotten soon? By the looks of it, he'll likely get a sequel.
And most important, do I feel sorry for him, and I'm giving him a high % because of that? Of course.

Nominations:
Henry Fleming x5

 

[Nimbostratus]

Shovel Knight
Chance- 5%
Popular in US… associated with Nintendo-styled gaming… recent? I'm stretching here.
Want- 0%
Here's some things I don't like out of possible fighters:
* A large amount of third party characters, especially ones that aren't iconic. It helps if they're mostly Nintendo exclusive.
* Characters that are only in the game because they are the new, hot thing and are good for advertising, rather than being relevant to Nintendo's history.
* Don't have a unique design or personality.
So… yeah.
His game is great and all, and I'm sure he'd be a unique fighter. But… there's just too many other things about the kind of character he is that I can't get behind. I hope nothing but the best for his games, though.

Quote Predictions- 5%
Nominations:
Ice Climbers x5

 

[Kalimdori]

Spoiler: My Chance Ratings

To compare with my other ratings. I'm of the opinion that Nintendo will milk the DLC hype train for as much cash as they can, and recent events have only strengthened that notion. As such, I expect plenty of DLC characters.

Chance: 99%
Want: 100%

King K. Rool Chance 80%
Want: 75%

Bandanna Dee Chance: 70%
Want: 95%

Isaac Chance: 65%
Want: 85%

Captain Toad Chance: 58%
Want: 90%

Inkling Chance: 50%
Want: 20%

Rayman Chance: 40%
Want: 100%

Chance: 40%
Want: 60%

Dixie Chances: 39%
Want: 49%

Impa Chance: 25%
Want: 60%

Banjo Chance: 20%
Want: 100%

Krystal Chance: 15%
Want: 0%

Shantae Chance: 5%
Want: 15%

Oh goody...

Shovel Knight Chance: 3%

So what's Shovel Knight got going for him? Well, he's got a hefty amount of votes for him if polls are anything to go by. And he's got moveset potential. And he's indie, so I doubt Nintendo would have to do much, if any negotiating to get him in the game.

And... that's it...

I give him a generous 3%, as Shovel Knight's chances hinge entirely on Sakurai considering him a "Special Case" in regards to 3rd party characters. (Because until someone can come up with a source, having to be a "Legend" to get into Smash Bros is conjecture, not a rule) And for all we know, he might consider adding in an indie character to be a "Special Case", in order to show support to Indie developers. But even then, I doubt the character chosen would be Shovel Knight, there's very little reason, other then western fan demand, to add Shovel Knight over other Indie characters. Best I could see for Shovel Knight is getting in as a DLC trophy, if those become a thing.

Want: 70%

Screw the purists, I think he'd be fun to play as. I enjoyed his game, his soundtrack is amazing, and I'd love to see Nintendo show Indie developers more love.

Quote Predictions: 5%

Ugh... I hate this prediction... I consider Quote to be the most likely Indie character to get into the game, he's the closest Indie gaming's got to a mascot, and he's known worldwide. But there's no way he's going to outrank Shantae on this particular forum.

Noms: Any NPC becomes playable x5

 

[JaidynReiman]

Shovel Knight:

Chance: 1%
I can't realistically justify rating him lower than that. I debated on doing it higher, but then I remember: Yeah, Ryu. Sorry, I think Ryu basically kills any chance of getting any third-party that's not an iconic gaming character. Granted, it would raise my chances of Snake.

Want: 0%
Honestly... I don't think Shovel Knight should be anywhere near Smash. He's not Nintendo exclusive, he's not a huge gaming icon or anything, he's got one pretty good game overall from an Independant developer. The only Indie I think -should- appear in Smash is Quote, since he revolutionized Indie gaming (even though Quote hasn't had many games overall).



Nominate Lip x5

 

[PK_Wonder]

@ A Distant Demon , you are correct. You were the closest prediction to Wolf's score. A lot of people came close, but you were .04% away from accuracy.

Shovel Knight
Chances - 1.25%

I just don't believe in a third party indie character making a major wave. I'm not even going to give all indie characters combined 5%. I'm giving him a little less than Shantae because he has much less gaming history and is less monogamous to Nintendo. He's got a decent little rabid fanbase, so he isn't impossible. He's virtually unknown in Japan (don't bring up Little Mac.. Little Mac is a first party Nintendo character), isn't even a year old (again, don't bring up Greninja... see Little Mac), and all things considered, your average gamer still has no idea who he is/hasn't played his game (don't bring up Shulk... see Little Mac and Greninja).

Want - 15%
He'd be fun, has a nice design, would bring great music with him, and the whole idea could usher in a renaissance of console indie gaming. But I have way to many priorities to be a big supporter.

nominate:
Simon Belmont x5

 

[FancySmash]

Shovel Knight
Chance: 1% - Right, so from what I gather, this character has only appeared in one game. A great game, but really only one. He's essentially 3rd party and doesn't really have any connections to Nintendo aside from being on a Nintendo console. I honestly think Shantae has better chance than him, at least by a little. Plus, yeah, Japan doesn't know him well.

Want: 1% - I'll give him a point for... uniqueness, I guess. I have no connection to him myself (never played his game), and feel that there are more deserving characters out there to get a spot. Sorry Mr. Shovel Knight, but do come back when you have more to show. Maybe you'll be accepted then?

Quote: Hmm, a bit better chances than Shovel Knight, but not as good as Shantae I'm assuming. I'll go: 21%

Nominate:
(That's X5 for the Ice Climbers, I just felt like getting creative)

 

[4theRECORD]

How many indies are there left?

Shovel Knight(Shovel Knight)
Chance:2%
I think I've stated my thoughts on indie characters already. 99.99% of them are just too minor to fit the bill. I'm being slightly more generous to Shovel than Shantae as his game apparently won GOTY on some websites or something, so it could be ported to Japan via Nintendo themselves which could get him at least a trophy like Rayman or Commander Video did...But still, it ain't much, and his little to no history keeps him out for the most part.

Want:0%
I think I've yet to have given any character a 0% in want before, but Shovel Knight will be the first one to recieve it.
Long story short, I'm sick of this character. It's probably a great game, I won't deny that, but I'm a bit tired from seeing all this over-promotion of this random indie character shoved into my face because of this one game he debuted in that came out like what, a year ago? I mean come on, what the heck has he done to change the face of gaming? Sonic is arugably Mario's biggest rival to this day and is one of the most recognized game characters out there, Snake formed the stealth genre, Mega Man was one of the franchises that solidified platformers and one of the most popular overall, and Pac-Man needs no explanation. There are plenty of other third parties like Rayman, Bomberman and Slime that are far more famous and have affected gaming as a whole.
I still intend to try his game on Steam when the price drops to 1.50$, but as of right now, I am so tired of this character. Come back 10 years later with more games behind you please.

Quote predictions:I dunno, 15%?

Nominations:Lip (Panel de Pon) x5

 

[ShinyRegice]

Roller Coaster Tycoon park visitor Shovel Knight chances: 0.03%
The "Anything can happen" clause is the only reason why I'm giving him more than a flat zero. Okay his game is very popular and all, but you must consider that he's a third-party character and getting into Smash is never an easy thing for any non-Nintendo character. His hopes to get into Smash really on three things: being one of the most nominated characters in the Smash Fighter ballot, having enough merits for his game alone, or being selected to be the playable representative of the indie scene. I highly doubt the first will happen, I admit he's doing pretty well for a third-party but I don't think it's going to be overwhelming to the point he'll be seriously considered, at least he will be far from pre-Brawl Sonic demand level. For the second, okay maybe his game is awesome and all but... is that really enough of a reason to include him in Smash Bros.? If he was Nintendo owned sure definitely but as of now having one awesome game is just not enough merits for a third-party to be Smash worthy. And for the third, I admit he's a frontrunner for an indie representative... if we get one. And to be honest, there's none of these who has the star power, wide appeal and historical gaming relevance required for third-party characters to make into Smash Bros. and Shovel Knight is no exception. For this reason it's never going to happen unless Sakurai changes his mind about third-party characters in Smash Bros. and becomes okay about adding them regardless of their fame compared to those who currently are in Smash.

Shovel Knight want: 0%
Hugh, no thanks. I get his game is awesome and all, but that's not enough merits to put him as a playable character in Smash for me. He has yet to become an established big name in gaming who can stand the test of time, and if he does in the future then I could maybe open myself to the possibility, but the amount of serious support he gets right now really makes me scratch my head. As of now I see nothing special about him as a character choice for Super Smash Bros., in all honesty he would feel like a random character put in for the sake of it.

Quote prediction: 6.35%
Looks like Shovel Knight isn't as overrated as I predicted after all. I expect Quote to have an overall chances score between him and Shantae.

Nominating:
Concept: DLC characters get custom moves (including Mewtwo through patching) x5

 

[Deleted member]

I feel bad for Shovel Knight. One unique fighter down the bin of no hope.

 

[A10theHero]

I feel bad for Shovel Knight. One unique fighter down the bin of no hope.

At least he'll have Goku and Shrek to comfort him down there.

 

[Erimir]

Shovel Knight

Others have expressed his downsides (very new/not legendary, multi-platform, Western dev, not even released in Japan). He is popular and his game was critically acclaimed, which helps. But Shantae would get a higher rating from me than him just for her longer history, exclusivity and her devs are asking for it... But he's more requested by a fairly large margin, so that has to count too.

Nevertheless, I don't see him as particularly likely.

Shovel Knight chance: 3.5%
Shovel Knight want: 70%
I think he would be cool, but he's not at the top of my list. Lack of Nintendo exclusivity hurts here too, but at least it was launched on Nintendo.

Quote prediction:
chance: 8%
something similar to Shantae I imagine
want: 38%
Lack of Nintendo exclusivity is gonna hurt him. Don't see him doing as well as Shantae.

 

[Delzethin]

. . .what?
they are named ryu and roy and are with the other victory tune files.

What else could they possibly be used for

Only playable fighters have ever had victory themes. Plus each player fighter has a dedicated number assigned to their theme song. Both Roy and Ryu got assigned numbers along with Lucas and Mewtwo.

But I'm not convinced they're both distinct characters. DLC is a completely new situation that could call for different code structure for easier access, and I wouldn't rule out the chances of, say, Roy actually being an alt for Marth or Lucina...

(Shovel Knight analysis will come when I have more time later.)

 

[NebulaWords]

Welp seems I predicted wrong--

Day 14 : SHOVEL KNIGHT
Chance: 15%
Due to have his game released in the WiiU and that the company that owns him are boosting his campaign, he may have a bit of a chance but that's it.
Want: 12%
I'm pretty neutral with this guy but I can't really judge as I didn't play his game. But I have watched the Game Grumps play it so he seems interresting and could have a potential moveset. Other than that, not so much.

QUOTE :
Prediction: 5%
I have a little idea of who he is. I've seen him once in a while but I don't really know him......And everyone else too. I don't see a lot who knows him.

Nominations: Geno (Super Mario RPG) x5 (Edit: I better nominate him daily)

 

[WeirdChillFever]

Steal Thy Shovel!

NOTE: THIS RATING IS ALSO MY NEW NON-COUNTING RATING FOR SHANTAE KINDA.

Chance: 10% 5% <- NEW RATING

Ok, so one thing has happened that has raised this score with spades (by 5%) and that's the ballot.
No amount of Japanese releases can save Shovel Knight from being an indie obscurity, but the ballot gives him a chance to turn the raw fan power into a chance of playability.

If it's a election (Highest vote getting in), Shovel Knight has a fairly good chance of winning it.
If it's not, I'm sure the fans have been burying Sakurai with good ideas on how he could play.

Ok, so far so good.
But here it's gonna hurt for Shovel Knight, and that's the well-known fact Shovel Knight is a third party with only one game.

If Shovel Knight doesn't gain overwhelming fan demand (far above King K. Rool), there's a big chance Sakurai will just pick another top voted character.

No want, but a rant:

ZERO.

Please Sakurai, get this NES-licking nostalgia faking abomination out of Smash.
I don't want a insignificant EShop third party to get in just because their raving fanboys come in spades.

Quote Prediction:

I think Pac-Man will be Top Tier

14%

Magolor x5