Looks like it's Wolf's turn. The most obvious roster addition there is that's not already confirmed or leaked... and I'm not sure I'm even as sure about the leaked characters, heh.
Here's my picture of the categories I'll use for assessing characters again again...
These points are for making a best estimate of their chances, although the weight of each category is still unknown at this time. Other unforeseen factors could keep the character from being added. I'll likely post this at the start of all my assessments.
Wolf
Popularity
Wolf is really popular. He's a cut vet with an actually unique moveset and really no reason not to be on the roster. After it came to light that he didn't make the cut and Mewtwo was announced, he quickly ascended to a top 3 most wanted position for DLC. After the announcement of Lucas, he's easily become the most wanted vet. And since vets generally get more requests anyways, Wolf has made a strong bid for the most wanted character period. Although, he likely didn't get the votes to reflect it on the ballot since many assumed he'd have to be added after Lucas's announcement regardless of ballot results.
Importance
Arguably, after Fox, Wolf is the most the next most iconic character in the game. He's Fox's rival and equal but also his antithesis in a way. Falco and the rest of the team are arguably all just teammates under Fox. Wolf stands toe to toe with Fox. Yes, Andross is the true villain in the Star Fox games for the most part, but Wolf is the true rival and enough of a villainous personality to fulfill that roll in Smash for Star Fox. Sakurai himself even recognized Wolf's importance as he was the first choice for a second Star Fox rep in Melee. Sakurai decided to go with Falco instead however so that he could have a character that looked less like Fox, fearing that he couldn't make Wolf appear unique enough on the Gamecube. In terms of video games in general, Wolf, like many of the Star Fox characters, are as recognizable by their dialogue as anything else... and Wolf has some of the more memorable lines. Even someone with only a basic knowledge of Star Fox would probably recognize a few of Wolf's lines.
Uniqueness
This has been a bit of a contentious debate in past, which is kind of silly frankly. Some say Wolf is a clone basically, and most who make this claim apparently have never played Wolf, or think one Final Smash and some vaguely similar specials equals "clone status". Fact is, Wolf is unique. Maybe not Snake or ICs unique, but as unique as any character could be and yet still be called "not unique" by some. It's the fact that he comes from the same universe as Fox and Falco that makes it easier to draw similarities. Pit and Falco share some similar specials in terms of basic functions too, but I bet you've never heard them called similar in a complaint. Fox and Kirby share about as many similar moves as Fox and Wolf even! I partially blame "Landmaster" since it's the one thing about Wolf that was clearly a cloned move. Still, I liked how he said, "We're gonna have fun with this thing". So yeah... Wolf was unique in Brawl. BUT, there's the chance he could be even more unique in Smash 4! There's nothing written that says he has to be exactly the same. Although, I'll admit, I hope he's mostly exactly like he was in Brawl minus the Final Smash perhaps. I have an idea for another Star Fox character that could bring a whole new level of uniqueness to the Star Fox team without having to change an already good character.
Relevance
Wolf is on the threshold of big time relevance. The Star Fox franchise may have been dormant recently but it's about to wake up. Star Fox Wii U is coming this year. Miyamoto himself is working on it and has dubbed 2015 "The Year of the Star Fox". With the delay of Zelda, it really looks like this could be true for Nintendo. So little about it has been said however, but being one of their big properties you can bet it'll be their headliner with Splatoon holding us over for the summer. And Star Fox Wii U's timing could not be more perfect if you wanted to tie something in to Smash for it. Not only is Wolf popular and many believe he has to join the roster now with Lucas's announcement... he has Star Fox Wii U ready to launch him. Yes, Wolf is ready, and Star Fox has the relevancy in coming to back him up.
Representation
Star Fox has some sad representation. Many like to say Donkey Kong got the short end of the stick, and granted, DK is a very popular franchise and it kind of did too by not getting a newcomer this time around. But Star Fox, nearly as big a Nintendo property, actually had a character cut. Star Fox has less reps now than it did in Brawl. Just two from a franchise with many interesting and capable characters. So I say,
"absolutely", Star Fox needs more reps. But I'll go further, Star Fox could use two reps. I believe Star Fox and Donkey Kong are the two franchises that legitimately need and could quite possibly have two additional reps each. Both franchises have two different characters that regularly get into the top 10 in character requests. Wolf and Krystal. K. Rool and Dixie. If any of you remember my Krystal assessment, you'll know that I said that Star Fox may even have the better odds of the two. Not only is Wolf the most popular vet, making him relatively easy to add, and is largely considered a shoe-in separate from the ballot votes... but Krystal regularly proves to have as much popularity, if not a little more, than Dixie. Of course, K. Rool is the most wanted newcomer and Dixie is no slouch in polls either. Both franchises could use two more reps, imo.
Limitations
Wolf has no limitations. He's hugely popular and requested. He's a Star Fox icon, the anti-Fox. He's unique, okay, seriously... he is. Okay, there's that Final Smash, but still. He's about to be as relevant as any prospective character out there, and unlike Inkling, he's tested and proved. Miyamoto alone lends credibility to Star Fox Wii U anyways if there was any question, and yes I think that influences Sakurai and co's decisions. He's from a franchise in desperate need of more representation. I'd even go so far as to say that Wolf missing almost seems
too convenient, what with Star Fox Wii U coming out and this DLC thing happening at the same time. It's like someone at Nintendo saw the opportunity. So, I repeat, Wolf has no real limitations in the slightest. The only question is why wasn't he added in the first place? Well, maybe he wasn't quite relevant again yet and maybe Nintendo always intended to make you pay separate for him.
Final Assessment
Chance: 97%
Like I said at the beginning, no other character is more obviously going to be added than Wolf. Even the leaked Roy and Ryu feel a little less certain just because they make a bit less sense than Wolf and I have to trust the data mining to mean that they must be in. The moment Lucas was announced, the next thought on a lot of people's minds was, "Wolf has to be in too". Now whether this will all come down to be true remains to be seen. If Nintendo didn't add Wolf however, it would be among their stupidest mistakes. Few things make more sense than to add Wolf at this point. Vet status helps, relevancy helps, popularity helps. If you're working for Sakurai you might say, "why not add the character that people want more than any other, would be relatively easy to port, AND we could tie in with an up coming game to get the cash flowing. Win, win, win scenario if you ask me. But Einstein once said something about stupidity so I tossed in a 3% chance that Wolf doesn't make it.
Want: 99%
Wolf was my best secondary in Brawl. I mained Ganon, but Wolf was nearly as loved. He played amazingly. So feral and rough. I loved the way he moved with that crazy air mobility and wonky momentum. His moves were aggressive and weird. How does that upsmash work? Speaking of upsmash, Dacus will be missed. I loved all those claw moves too. Uair, jab, dsmash, and my favorite, ftilt. Loved his side B hitting sharp with the sweetspot and his up B grinding people like Ganon's Flame Chain. I loved all his moves. RAR Bairs all day. He had the best taunts too imo, that howl. And arguably the best victory screens, "weaklings, the bunch of you". He had attitude. Whenever I look back at Wolf play in Brawl, I think about how much character we're missing. I'd pay double the Mewtwo price to get Wolf back. And yet, I docked that 1%. Why? Well, I've committed to pushing for Krystal's inclusion. She needs the help more and my investment in her would make her inclusion all the sweeter. I want them both, but I am able to let go of "1%" of Wolf want with the confidence that he'll get in regardless.
...
I can't believe it, but I think Wolf managed to make me write my longest post yet... and that's saying something. Hey, I actually had fun with this thing~
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Time to assess how the thread will assess Shovel Knight....
Predictions for Shovel Knight
Chance: 6.6%
Want: 39.6%
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Another of my characters has ascended with Shovel Knight. Lets make sure that "Any NPC becomes playable" request happens before Ridley.
3 Points to *Concept: Any NPC becomes playable*
1 Points to Sceptile - (that one's for you Delzethin!)
1 Point to Bayonetta?
