Rate their Chances: the DLC Edition. Day: 192: The final day

[WeirdChillFever]

Abstain on Snake.

Wolf: 89.99%

Magolor x5

 

[Erimir]

Snake

I never thought Snake belonged in Smash, he's more of a Sony character IMO (despite having some early games on Nintendo platforms). His appearance in Brawl didn't seem to get Nintendo much out of Konami. They had one 3DS game, and now there's even less Konami on Nintendo than before! Even Castlevania is not much on there, and that series has been very good to Nintendo in the past (the GBA and DS games were fun).

All that to say, there's not a lot pushing Nintendo and Konami to cooperate. Konami would seem to get more out of this arrangement than Nintendo - although at least in this case, Nintendo gets money by selling the DLC. The question then is how many Nintendo fans want Snake? That might not be such a bad number for Snake, and his veteran status certainly helps there.

He's also getting votes. Sure, he's not number one (but I'm guessing some top vote getters like Banjo-Kazooie and Shovel Knight are much less popular in Japan), but he's doing quite well.

And being a veteran means the amount of effort into bringing him will be lower than for a newcomer.

One final thought, though, is that Snake would've made a lot more sense to include in the launch cast. Sakurai certainly knew people wanted him, and he didn't get in for some reason. So the question is: has anything changed since then? Are Nintendo and Konami on better terms? Are Snake's votes enough to overcome whatever factor led to his exclusion in the first place?

I have a hard time balancing the pros and cons here, but I think Snake has a pretty good chance, but I'm having a hard time thinking it's better than I thought his chances were last year.

Snake chance: 45%
In the end I think Snake has a quite good chance, but I don't think he makes it to more-likely-than-not. If votes, uniqueness and veteran status were all that mattered, I'd say he's a shoo-in, but Konami's relationship with Nintendo is the wild card there.
Snake want: 10%
He's a veteran and I'll let that push it up a bit. He was a bit wonky and while I was never great with him, he was kinda fun to use. I do wonder a little how Smash 4 mechanics would affect him. If he weren't a veteran, it'd be 0%. I have no attachment to Snake and haven't played his games. Beyond that, he doesn't really fit in stylistically and he's far more loyal to Sony and even Microsoft at this point than to Nintendo. So why should he be in?

(A random comment: Ryu fits in stylistically much better than Snake. For one, the Street Fighter games use a somewhat cartoon style, the design would almost certainly be based off of the less exaggerated muscles of the SNES games, and he basically uses magical chi powers, while Snake uses guns.)

Wolf prediction
chance: 85%
People want him, and they see him as a natural choice given Lucas's inclusion.
want: 83%

There's marketing for Smash Brothers and its DLC...

...and then there's marketing for the games of the characters that are in Smash Bros. Three Shantae games are on sale on the Nintendo eShop right now, and having her in Smash Bros would boost the sales of those games tremendously, *and* could also open the Japanese market to those games.

Which would make Nintendo a lot of money... for a 1st-party character. I don't know the full details of what Nintendo's cut is on the eShop, but it's a fraction of the revenue. And while Capcom would be getting some of the Ryu DLC money, Nintendo would be getting the large majority of it.

But it's also not just about Shantae vs. no Shantae, cost-free. It's Shantae versus the development cost versus some other character that could be more profitable for Nintendo.

 

[4theRECORD]

Oh god, Snake. I would be writing down an essay if it weren't for the flu.

Chance:45%
I really can't say anything until we learn why he was cut in the first place. He's certainly the most likely third party.

Want:60%
Terribly mixed.
I absolutely adore the Metal Gear franchise. I've played every single canon game except Portable Ops. However, Snake is not a character that has any great relevance with Nintendo whatsoever, and Kojima sometimes saying things he shouldn't be saying isn't exactly helping my feelings either.
But with Kojima being fired and Konami rearranging their gaming devision is giving me slight hope that Konami is going to at least try to work towards Nintendo, with Metal Gear being one of the franchises that gets a release.
Even if it's just Metal Gear MSX 1&2 release on Vc, I'll still raise my wants to 70%. Give me MGSV for WiiU, and I'll raise it to 80%. Give me a Ghost Babel remake for 3DS, and I'll happily raise my wants to 100%. Oh, and my chance scores would go up to 90%.

Wolf prediction: 90%
I think this is a probable number.

Nominations:
Jibanyan(Youkai Watch) x5

 

[ShinyRegice]

Snake chances: 30%
I used to think Snake was very unlikely to come back like, 4% chances. However, with Ryu being very possibly our first proper SSB4 DLC newcomer and a third-party character, he breaks some argument generally used against Snake, "Irrelevant to recent Nintendo", with Street Fighter V being a PS4 exclusive and a sizable amount of other SF games not coming to Nintendo consoles as well. He's certainly a high-profile video game character who can add something special to Smash no one from Nintendo could do, so he definitely felt like something special in Brawl, and for those reasons a lot of people miss him and want him back in Smash 4 through DLC, which is something I'm sure Sakurai and Nintendo have noticed.

I think Snake not coming back in SSB4 at least in the vanilla roster is most likely due to either being low priority or just Nintendo's lack of interest towards him coming back. For what I believe Snake is historically more associated to Sony than Nintendo, and a lot of Nintendo fans are admittedly not very familiar with Metal Gear Solid besides Snake's inclusion in Brawl, which could possibly justify his status as a one-time-thing from a Nintendo perspective. This could also justify him as a low priority returning character, especially given that third-party characters are always more difficult to add to the roster than any Nintendo-owned character. However, considering his uniqueness and fan demand, I could see Sakurai/Nintendo/whoever changing their mind and trying to put him back through DLC.

Snake want: 13.75%
I have little to no connection to the Metal Gear series, but I admit Snake's inclusion in Brawl felt like something special, and I loved his moveset. However I wasn't expecting him to come back in SSB4 anyway and I think he makes sense as a one time thing. That said, as I already mentioned his moveset was great fun and I loved using him, and due to this I wouldn't mind if he came back.

(Insert 75% of original want score cut because no custom moves for Mewtwo rant here)

Wolf prediction: 95.25%
Everyone, I mean everyone is expecting him to eventually come back. I have little doubt he's going to get a chances score on par with Palutena the last day she was rated before her official confirmation in the original RTC.

Edit: oops, almost forgot to nominate
Concept: DLC characters get custom moves (including Mewtwo through patching) x5

 

[PK_Wonder]

Snake
Chances - 13.5%
Want - 85%

I'm going to combine my explanation for both together so as to not repeat myself.

I love Metal Gear. It's one of my top five favorite non-Nintendo series. Yet while it has a firm history with Nintendo, and might possibly not exist without having an early success on it, it resonates much more as a Sony series. It definitely has the Nintendo charm and personality and quality/unique gameplay, and it would easily fit right in as a flagship Nintendo franchise if that were true. But since that isn't the case, I still think of Sony first, because literally every PlayStation has had a Metal Gear Solid as a defining title. If Kojima and Sakurai weren't so close and Snake didn't sneak into Brawl, we wouldn't be talking about him. A lot has changed in the industry since Brawl. Konami hasn't done a single thing to support the Wii U outside of a few of their classic Castlevania titles on VC, and just a couple of titles for the 3DS. In fact, name one title Konami is developing for ANY console that isn't MGS V. Yeah. It's a sad state of affairs, but all parties involved may just not be interested in this business deal. If fans make serious waves not only in the ballot, but also directly to Konami, we may be something change.

As an aside, if you don't have a way to play the perfect and definitive package of all things MG, The Metal Gear Solid: Legacy Collection on PS3, I otherwise highly recommend Snake Eater 3D to any New 3DS/Circle Pad Pro owner. It's one hell of a port with some nice Nintendo touches.

Nominate another Konami legend, who has much more Nintendo-resonating power: Simon Belmont x5

 

[Warlock*G]

[...]
Which would make Nintendo a lot of money... for a 1st-party character. I don't know the full details of what Nintendo's cut is on the eShop, but it's a fraction of the revenue. And while Capcom would be getting some of the Ryu DLC money, Nintendo would be getting the large majority of it.

But it's also not just about Shantae vs. no Shantae, cost-free. It's Shantae versus the development cost versus some other character that could be more profitable for Nintendo.

Which is why I hoping against odds. And you forgot to mention the opening of an entire market to a new character in your rebuttal. Surely that's got to count.

Edit: Couldn't find data on Nintendo's eshop revenue, can't be bother to search more. So which fraction of the revenue does Nintendo get from its eshop? Don't know.

 

[A Distant Demon]

Snake!

Chance abstain
honestly too mamy very weird things. Kojima leaving, konami, etc. snake has eluded me like an average guard

Want 100
never played more than the snake part of mgs2 on the ps3 but man he was fun. He was uber unique and a cool dude. I would love him back

Bonus noms. Thanks rayman
4 wonder red
2 ridley
4 viridi
Prediction
93. I feel like somebody will bring it down from 100


Edit ignore the bad formatting. It died for my exclamation point and im on mobile so i wont fix it

 

[NebulaWords]

I'll give it a shot, could be fun~

Day 12 : SNAKE

Chance: 25%
I don't think we will see Snake (or Big Boss as some call him) coming back anytime soon. But then again, before there was the "exclusive fighter" thing which made Snake a Brawl exclusive character. Now that Mewtwo came back from Melee, there's probably a little chance that Snake comes back. But then again, I won't count on it.

Want: 15%
I'm pretty neutral for this character. Seems fun to play with but not my absolute favorite. Plus I never got the hang of playing him correctly. And I'm not into the Metal gear series so meh.

Wolf (I hope I'm doing it right--) :
Prediction: 75-80%
Pretty much everyone is expecting him. And they want him to come back. I'll hold into my thoughts for tomorow--

Nominations: Geno (Super Mario RPG) x5

 

[Martingale]

Snake? Snake?!? SNAKE!!!

Chance: 10%
The reason Snake was included in the first place was because Kojima's son was interested in having him playable in the game. Kojima went and directly asked Sakurai if Snake could be in the game for that reason. That's what drove this. Now, with Kojima and Konami juggling the Metal Gear franchise like a hot potato, it's unavoidably a complete corporate mess at the moment. Sakurai would have to step INTO the fray to get Snake back, which I can't envision being done. Plus, it kind of goes against the "no realistic guns" rule he imposed upon the games. It was certainly an exception not to be repeated.

Want: 20%
I have a friend who played with Snake religiously in Brawl. This is the only reason I'd like to see him back, as outside of this his inclusion he was pretty irrelevant to me. He felt odd in a game full of cute colourful characters.

WOLF: Prediction
77%. Wolf has huge chances as a veteran, and his inclusion would almost be certainly written in the stars due to ease of inclusion. But maybe we're reaching Vet DLC saturation point, which makes me think people might vote a bit lower.

Them Nominations: Put me down for 5x Professor Layton.

 

[Aetheri]

These ratings are all over the place, we're probably going to see an even 50% simply because of all the outliers on both extremes...

Also I'm not sure why Ryu's inclusion would affect Snake's chances, do people forget that Capcom is collaborating with Nintendo, whereas Konami is doing pretty much the exact opposite...

 

[ferioku]

Snake chance 15%, everyone already explained the reason.

Want 50%, will be cool to see him return as a veteran, honestly!

Wolf prediction 90%

 

[BluePikmin11]

Just going to keep it short here, because I don't think much has changed with Snake other than the ballot really.

Snake Chance:
25%
I'm just going to get the main things out of the way that have changed with :
+ From one of the most iconic series, another popular third franchise.
+ A veteran, a highly requested veteran in the ranks of requests with Wolf and Lucas. (One of the reasons why Lucas came back.)
+ Currently being advocated by Konami in the ballot.
- One of the least associated series with Nintendo right now, might make Snake low priority.

Snake Want:
15%
I appreciated the series after playing the collection on my Xbox, his games aren't my tastes though, even though the stealth gameplay can be pretty fun.

Wolf Prediction:
89.76% I'm sticking with my gut and predicting Wolf will actually get less than 90%.

Nominations:
x5 Quote

 

[smileMasky]

for got to put this

Prediction Wolf: 91.23%
it's got to be very high I'd say at least 90% of the community would want him

 

[Zajice]

I'd like to point out that Snake is not a Sony character. Konami doesn't have brand loyalty.

There are only three Sony console exclusive MGS games.
- Metal Gear Solid 1 (and VR missions, which is basically just a challenge mode add-on)
- Metal Gear Solid 4
- Portable Ops / Plus

That's it. And on top of that, the MGS1 remake, Twin Snakes, is a Nintendo console exclusive. Some MGS games were Playstation exclusive at first, but they no longer are. MGS5 is also releasing across multiple platforms on the same day. Snake is not Sony's.

 

[Deleted member]

The Directory has been updated.

Snake
Chance: 1%
I am not confident in Snake's return at all. Yes he is a veteran and thus will get a lot of votes worldwide and has a moveset already, but I think he has four key factors working against him.
1. He is more loyal to other consoles than with Nintendo. Judging from the history of the MGS series, it has been on other consoles more than recent consoles. Sure, it was on a lot of Nintendo's earlier consoles, but the MGS series has been on the competition's consoles more. All Nintendo gets from MGS are remakes that were originally on Sony consoles; Nintendo is not going to get the new MGS games.
2. The E10 rating could be seen as a preventable factor. MGS is a very mature series and Snake is a very mature character; his inclusion could have raised the rating of the games. Snake uses weapons like grenades and mines, something that the ESRB could have raised the rating on. Nintendo may have prevented his inclusion for this very reason and they did outright cut content to get this rating.
3. Konami's relationship with Nintendo is very bad recently. They are less active on Nintendo consoles and they have a very iffy relationship with Nintendo. Konami may not want to request to put Snake in, especially when the guy who begged Sakurai to put Snake in Brawl is (supposedly) fired (and I only say supposedly because who knows what Kojima is actually doing).
4. The Wii U isn't doing well financially. This also could have been a preventing factor as the Wii U isn't holding up well against the PS4 and Xbox One, two systems that will get MGSV. This means that Snake's inclusion is a double edged sword; include Snake and they will get profit from MGS fans who might not have bought a Wii U in the first place, but the competition could profit by buying MGSV and thus hurt Nintendo a bit more.
It's honestly for these reasons why I think Snake doesn't have a strong chance at all. Could I be wrong? Perhaps, but I think Snake should have been in the base game to have a chance.
One thing to note: yes, Ryu is pretty odd as he is a Capcom character. However, his inclusion is made slightly easier as Nintendo already has the rights to a Capcom character with Mega Man; they could ask Capcom to include Ryu and, knowing how Capcom loves their crossovers, would agree to such a thing.

Want: 0%
I don't hate Snake as a character and I loved playing as him in Brawl, but I don't want him to return at all.
In a game with Nintendo's all-stars, he is far from one in my eyes. Sonic, Mega Man, and even Pac-Man, I can identify them as Nintendo all-stars due to their history with the company; Snake barely has that with Nintendo.
My 0% want also comes from another reason: Bomberman. Snake's cut doesn't mean that he will get in, but the door is open for him slightly. Bomberman is an absolute dream of mine and Snake getting in was a preventing factor since he is now owned by Konami. This cut at least gives me hope for the next game...

MONADO, SHIELD ME!

Wolf Prediction: 87.04%
A lot is looking up for Wolf. I wouldn't be surprised to see a couple 100%s.

Nominations: Alt Costumes for Characters 5x

 

[SL the Pyro]

Chance: 20%
I want to be generous to a unique character that's been in the game before, but like many third-party characters, Snake has a few big shortcomings.

Pros:
+Popularity: Loved, wanted, and in a previous Smash game. No surprise here.
+Lifetime: Metal Gear has been around since the NES, which is no small feat, though the characterization we're familiar with didn't come about until the first Solid.
+Playability: Snake already has a pre-existing moveset from Brawl that was as tactical and effective as the player was, so theoretically putting him in 3DS/Wii U shouldn't even be hard. A few tweaks here and there and he'd be set.

Cons:
-Exposure: Most of Snake's popularity in the ballot comes from his previous entry in Brawl, but other than that he has had no promotions on a Nintendo system in recent days.
-Legacy: Despite the Metal Gear games on Nintendo systems, Snake is mostly remembered for his exploits on the PlayStation. Many people believed he wouldn't get into Brawl because of this, and were it not for a good word by Hideo Kojima, he may very well not have.
-Availability: Konami's retweet notwithstanding, Kojima no longer being with the company heavily hurts Snake's chances of getting back in. I know it looks like Konami is feigning interest, but a single retweet from a single staff member might not reflect the entire company's stance on the issue. They need only say "No." and that'll be it.

Want: 50%
I'm sitting on the fence, honestly. I didn't particularly like Snake, but I did enjoy that he was a unique character with a very interesting moveset. I won't be broken up if he doesn't come back, but I won't be overly enthusiastic either.

----------

Wolf
Prediction: 50%
Unlike Snake, Wolf has first-party privileges on top of being a veteran and having a vocal fanbase. The only thing that might work against him is his pseudo-clone status.

----------

Nominations: Shovel Knight x5

 

[Geno Boost]

snake chances 22%: kojima want snake to reutern and snake is a veteran from brawl so sakurai would like to make his friend happy again but he might get replaced by bomberman because he is more iconic and has a bigger history with nintendo than snake


want 10%: because i dont want snake without bomberman he is a better choice like megaman and pac-man for a konami rep

Geno X5

 

[MacDaddyNook]

I guess I'll give this a try.

Snake's Chances: 50-60%

When I think about bringing back Snake, I can only see positives for all parties involved.

For Nintendo, Snake being a veteran and having existing assets means it will take much much less effort to port him over from Brawl than it would to add in even a First-Party newcomer. This means less development time, and more importantly for them, a lower development cost. This means Nintendo will get more bang for their buck in their DLC and Amiibo sales, assuming DLC characters get Amiibos.

Snake is a well-known character from an established series with a pretty strong fan-base. He's also a very unique character with a fun moveset which is what players want out of their characters. And, of course, he's also a veteran which also helps majorly since Smash Bros fans have a soft spot in their hearts for returning characters; after all, look at how excited people are about having Roy back and he was a clone of a character who already has one clone in the game already. All this translates to the fact that Snake will sell pretty well, I'd say even more so than many of the more obscure characters or potential clones people suggest.

It just seems better business to provide a product that you know will sell and costs less to make.

For Konami, the obvious benefit is the advertisement for the Metal Gear series. Of course, I highly doubt anyone will purchase a rival console just because Snake was in Smash Bros, but it doesn't hurt to get the brand known to more people. Plus, if they do decide to bring the series onto a Nintendo system, it'd only help them.

And finally, for us, the fans, we get an old friend and unique fighter back. While DLC characters may not come with additional content, if they do decide to expand more, we know that Snake's stage, trophies and assist trophy all have existing assets that can be ported over as well. Plus, with Nintendo spending less time on bringing over existing assets like Snake and Wolf, that could open up more time/resources to add even more content.


Snake's Want: 100%

I'm not going to lie, Snake is the only character I really really want that hasn't been announced or is already in the game. He was just so much fun to play as and brought a lot of personality to the series.


----

Wolf's Prediction: 95%

For the same reasons I listed for Snake, I feel Nintendo should, and will, make Wolf DLC for this game.

----

Nomination:

Shovel Knight x2
Simon Belmont x3

 

[Sir Gengar de Èctoplasma]

Chance: 10%
Want: 1%

Wolf prediction: 87%

Nominations: DLC Alt Character Costumes 5x

 

[FooltheFlames]

Chance 30%

Mewtwo came back, why couldn't he one day? But Mewtwo had a huge fanbase and his popularity going for him, Snake doesnt have as many rabid fans as the genetically modified psychic feline when it comes to Smash at least.

Want 30%

Was never a huge fan of the MG series or Snake in general, but there wasn't any good reason to remove a Smash character with such a unique moveset was there?

Wolf Prediction: 52%

EDIT: Unless I skipped over them in the @ PK_Wonder post, it looks like NO ONE has nominated Lip or Ashley yet? why?

Nominations: Ashley, Lip, Mona, Viridi, & Amaterasu!

 

[Pureownege75]

Snake

Chance: 5%
He has minimal in his favor and tons of things against him and I personally think, regardless of how many votes he garners, we won't see him return. If his inclusion in Brawl had led to Nintendo and Konami working together more often for Metal Gear games, similar to what happened with Sonic, I'd think he'd have a much better shot, but his series has still rarely graced Nintendo consoles, which doesn't exactly motivate Nintendo to bring him back. We pretty much unanimously agreed that Nintendo doesn't want to promote series that don't appear on their systems on the Banjo day, and Snake is certainly no exception. He really only got in to Brawl because of Kojima, and with him leaving the company, his chances are only further decreased. Heck, I wouldn't be surprised if Kojima asked Sakurai to NOT put him in because of all of the obvious bad-blood between Kojima and Konami. The only things he has in his favor are popularity(although several characters out-rank him there), and the fact that he's a veteran, which makes him easy to put in. He faces a huge uphill battle, and with Ryu essentially confirmed, his chances are even FURTHER decreased, because I doubt they want to add a ton of 3rd Parties as DLC.

Want: 15%
Kinda indifferent to him, I really don't miss him all that much. I'd be ok with him returning and all, but I'm not specifically advocating for it. He really didn't fit in in Brawl, and now that the art-style is much more colorful and cartoony, I feel like he'd only stick out even more. Plus with so few of his games still on Nintendo's consoles, I struggle to really desire him in a Nintendo All-Stars game. Never played his series, so I'm not attached to him, but I understand he has a lot of fans, and he's unique.

Wolf Prediction: 85%

Nominations
RH Character x3
Themed Stage Packs x2

 

[Rie Sonomura]

Snake:
Chance: 30% With the situation at Konami, the only way he'd be safe imo is if Sakurai secured all the deals and started working on Snake before Kojima was fired. (it seems Kojima wasn't leaving of his own choice as I initially thought)

Want: 100%
Of all the cut veterans I want back, I want Snake, the first third party character in all of Smash, back the most. As @Scoliosis Jones would say, Once a Smash Brother, Always a Smash Brother.

Wolf Prediction: 94.67%

Nominations:
"Don't Speak Her Name!" x1
"Captain Falcon's theme" x1
"Moonstruck Blossom" x1
Concept: Shadow Moses stage, music and Grey Fox AT included with Snake x2

 

[Megadoomer]

Snake:

Chance: 60%

As a veteran, I figure that there's a pretty good chance that Snake will be brought back. Even if his coding from Brawl can't be copied and pasted into the Wii U and 3DS versions, his Brawl appearance still gives them his entire moveset, damage percentages, and a large base in general to work off of, as opposed to starting from scratch. They've worked with Konami to get Snake into the game before, so it seems like that process would be easier the second time around, and there's absolutely no reason for Konami to say no to this regardless of all of this confusion with Kojima.

I know some people have plenty of reasons why he shouldn't be in, but if those reasons had any sway over the developers, he wouldn't have been included in Brawl or considered for Melee; the fact that he was in both cases means that those reasons for excluding him mean nothing in the grand scheme of things, or at most very little. Bringing back Snake seems to benefit both Nintendo (he's a character who a lot of people seem to want, who would require much less work compared to most others) and Konami (creating a larger audience on Nintendo consoles, which could result in them being more willing to support those consoles), so I don't see why they wouldn't.

Want: 100%

To be honest, Smash Bros. is what got me into Metal Gear, and seeing as Snake was a completely unique character who represented an entire series, I found it ridiculous that he was cut to begin with. It would be like if Mega Man was cut in the next game, and a lot of people (or at least a vocal minority) immediately bashed him, saying it was good that he was cut because he was a ridiculously projectile-heavy character in a fighting game, so he didn't fit, and now that he's gone, we could get Ryu or Phoenix Wright or a Monster Hunter. Snake seems to stand head and shoulders above Konami's other characters in terms of how recognizable he is, and if he was announced as DLC, I would buy it on day one, regardless of the cost.

 

[Jaster]

Snake.

Chance: 13%

Want: 36%

 

[Scamper52596]

Snake
Chance: 6%
I'm not all that confident in his chances. I had previously thought before the Ryu leak/rumor that Snake was the most plausible third party candidate for DLC if we even got any. Now that we're seemingly going to get Ryu for our third party DLC, I think Snake's chances really dropped. Reason being is because I never expected to get more than one third party DLC character, and I still don't. The whole Konami debacle doesn't help matters very much. Truth is I never really expected Snake to even return in the base game due to the company not really doing much to support Nintendo this gen. People will bring up the fact that the Metal Gear game that was being developed around the time of Brawl was only a Sony exclusive and what not. The thing is, the Wii was in a much better situation than the Wii U is. Nintendo could afford to advertise a game for another console. With the Wii U barely keeping up this gen, I just don't think they're going to possibly compromise themselves even more by hyping up a game that's not even available for their home console. Those are just my thoughts and opinions; feel free to disagree if you wish. I'll give the stealth master a total of 6%.
He has definitely kept us waiting, but just how long will he make us wait...

Want: 35%
I'm not a huge fan of Snake or the franchise he comes from, but my friend is. He used to love playing Snake, so it would make me happy if he returned just to see my friend get excited. Can't say I really care much about his inclusion other than for that reason alone.

Prediction - Wolf: 88.5%

Nominations:
x3 Tetra
x2 Toon Zelda

 

[ES. Dinah]

Snake

Chances: 10%

With the Hideo Kojima situation it is now hard for Snake to get in smash. Mgs V: The Phantom Pain is not coming to Wii U. The only thing he has going for it is the retweet Konami made.

Want: 80%

I really like Snake and I either want him back or another MGS rep like Big Boss to get in. The reason for this is because I am a huge Metal Gear fan.

Nominations: KOS-MOS X5. Best Namco rep ever.

 

[Sid-cada]

Snake

Chance - 17.5% - Eh. While being a vet gives him a boost, considering the situation with Kojima's leaving, basically the only reason he got in, I think it's going to be difficult. Really, all he has going for him at the moment is that he is a popular vet, which given the circumstances may no longer be enough.

Want - 55% - Eh. While I had fun with him in the last game, nowadays I'm a bit more open to cuts. In all honesty, I really only consider Mega Man and Sonic to be the essential third parties, and the rest bonuses. I won't mind his return, but I'm willing to let him go.


Wolf Prediction - 85.85% - As close to a non-leaked character can get to being a lock.

Nominations

New Guidance Conversations X3
Anna (FE) X2

 

[Erimir]

And you forgot to mention the opening of an entire market to a new character in your rebuttal. Surely that's got to count.

Edit: Couldn't find data on Nintendo's eshop revenue, can't be bother to search more. So which fraction of the revenue does Nintendo get from its eshop? Don't know.

It means that there are more people who don't already have the games, but it also means there may be a lower ceiling on sales since they're less familiar and it means fewer DLC copies sold in Japan too. Honestly, I don't see that being practically unknown in Japan can be spun as a positive factor really. Maybe it's not as negative as some people think, but I still think it's, on the whole, a negative.

From what I've read, Nintendo offers terms similar to Steam (according to the developer of Toki Tori), which I've read is somewhere around 30% goes to Steam vs. 70% to the developer, with some variation depending on the game/developer (I'm guessing bigger publishers/higher selling games can demand more favorable splits). Not sure whether Nintendo would take a bigger or smaller cut (could be bigger because there's only one way to buy digital for Wii U, could be smaller because Nintendo has a greater need to attract developers) but again, the difference is supposedly not large.

I'm sure Nintendo gets the large majority of the return on DLC characters (perhaps even all of it), and Shantae's old game sells for the same as a DLC character. Basically, for every 100k more DLC copies Ryu sells, Shantae needs to sell something like 200k+ extra copies of the original game (selling for $5 on eShop) or 60-80k extra copies of Pirate's Curse, just to make up the difference in DLC character sales alone. Given that much less than 100% of people who get Shantae DLC will then buy her game (whether because they already have it, which is very likely for people like you who are fans, or they're not interested), I can see that as questionable. But Ryu can also sell more Street Fighter Virtual Console copies - he's already well-known, but he may activate nostalgia which sells copies too (e.g. I was listening to a countdown of Mega Man Robot Master themes and it made me want to go buy a VC Mega Man game). One advantage is that Nintendo definitely doesn't need to offer Wayforward anything in return for the right to include Shantae because the advertising benefit to them is much larger.

I'm just saying that the math of 3rd-parties vs. 1st-parties means that for 3rd-parties how many DLC copies the character will sell is a much stronger consideration than it is for a 1st-party character. So even aside from Sakurai's statements about 3rd-parties being special cases, the financial considerations make bigger name 3rd-parties more attractive as well. Eliminating an explicit rule against minor 3rd-parties doesn't make their other faults go away.

 

[edsett]

Snake
Chance: 15%
Despite Kojima's support pre-Sm4sh release, third party veteran Snake isn't in the base game. His unique codec calls turned into Palutena's Guidance and ZSS's final smash is very similar to his. This is very telling. Whatever kept Snake out could still keep him out.
But the biggest hinderance to Snake's inclusion as DLC is whatever is going down between Kojima and Konami. Snake got in because of Kojima (not Konami) and with Kojima leaving/fired, it leaves his situation very murky. Then there are the other points of raising the game's rating, Nintendo's potential disinterest, etc.

Want: 20%
Sure, Snake "didn't fit" but he was fun as hell. Shadow Moses was an excellent stage too. The only reason my Want rating isn't higher is because Snake's exclusion gives Bomberman a better chance.

Wolf Prediction: 90%

 

[Bill Nye]

Snake
Chance: 20%
I think the recent Ryu leak hurts his chances. I don't see Nintendo spending even more DLC resources on third parties. Snake's ties with Nintendo are also not in the best shape right now, so I'm not getting my hopes up.

Want: 65%
I'd honestly rather have than Snake than most of the likely first party candidates (Rool, Isaac, Inkling), but I never felt like he belonged in Smash in the first place. Best case scenario for me is someone taking some of his move set. I really enjoy trap characters.

Nominations: Henry Fleming x 2
Ridley x 3

 

[BKupa666]

Snake:

Chance - 20%
If we get any third party not named Ryu, I think it'll be him. He's definitely going to rise above the pack of mediocrity with vote count, it just matters if it's enough to override whatever presumably kept him out of the game in the first place.

Want - 75%
Never really played him in Brawl, but he was a quality unique character who shouldn't have been cut.

Wolf Prediction - 94.5%

Nominate Shovel Knight x5

 

[Seanp12]

I don't think Ryu helps all that much because Nintendo still has a decent relationship with Capcom. Konami not so much.

As for my bonus nominations:
Concept: Any Star Fox character DLC released near Star Fox U release date. x5

 

[AreJay25]

Snake
Chance - 45%
There's nothing exactly stopping him from coming back, but a lot of factors might make it hard. Kojima leaving Konami has left MGS in a state of limbo right now, so adding Snake back into Smash might not be one of their priorities right now. On another note, Konami hasn't exactly been doing much for Nintendo recently either.

Want - 75%
He's not my most wanted character but I'd love to see him come back. He represents a fantastic series and he was really fun in Brawl. Just wish he could be voiced by David Hayter again.

Wolf Prediction: 99%
I'm almost certain that Wolf is going to happen.

 

[jahkzheng]

Seems Snake has stealthily snuck his sneaking suit self into our thread. It's showtime~

Here's my picture of the categories I'll use for assessing characters again again...

These points are for making a best estimate of their chances, although the weight of each category is still unknown at this time. Other unforeseen factors could keep the character from being added. I'll likely post this at the start of all my assessments.

Snake

Popularity
Snake has always been a hugely popular video game character, but in terms of being a popular choice for DLC, I'd say his support is relatively low. This is for a number of reasons I'll discuss later. Snake is still often top 10 DLC material for Smash 4, but he doesn't seem to have the edge on newcomers that Lucas did and Wolf does among vets. I think a lot of this has little to do with how much people actually like him however and more to do with the fact that many would be supporters simply don't believe he's coming back for a number of reasons. He was arguably the most hype addition to Brawl but now among unincluded vets he's being out requested by "semi-clones" and, in some cases, the mostly another clone of Marth character, Roy. Still, as a vet and a popular and well liked Brawl character, he still manages to beat most newcomers in requests.

Importance
Snake is arguably Konami's mascot and flagship franchise. Although Snake hasn't always been the center piece, most everyone would agree that he's the face of the series. He's become quite iconic due to the successes of his games, standing very nearly as high as the icons repped currently. That's a lot of importance points for a character, but he runs into trouble when you realize how little he's actually appeared on Nintendo consoles in recent years. In terms of Nintendo, he's not the "video game icon" that he is on Playstation. Ever since Metal Gear went 3D it's mostly left Nintendo behind with the exception of a couple ported games and a handheld game or two. Still, this wasn't a hurdle for him to get into Brawl, but now he's also having to deal with relevancy on Nintendo consoles and in general as well.

Uniqueness
Anyone who's played Brawl knows exactly how unique he could be or is. Of all the vets that were cut, minus Ice Climbers, Snake is easily the most unique. One could argue he's even more unique than Ice Climbers simply for the aesthetic and wildly different universe he brings to Smash. And this is just assuming he'd come back as he was in Brawl. He still has a ton of tools he could bring to that game that he didn't in Brawl, if Sakurai and co decided to bring him back but change around his moveset. Yes, this is one place that Snake is for sure the top of the game. Couple that with vet status and there's no question anymore. If this was the only factor, Snake would've been in already.

Relevance
Snake's relevancy is actually on the down turn. It was years ago now that Kojima expressed an interest in "moving on" from Snake's character wanting Metal Gear to move beyond him so Kojima could feel more comfortable giving up the large roll in Metal Gear series development he'd always had. In fact, it's easy to see that Kojima and Snake's fates are intertwined. Where Kojima goes, Snake seems to follow... and where Kojima doesn't go, Snake doesn't either. Kojima is now apparently leaving Konami to who knows where so Snakes fate is very much in limbo. Fact is that Komani has most likely retained Snake's character but it's hard to say what they could do with him without Kojima. The franchise may get a reboot or it may continue down new roads for the franchise. Kojima was extremely instrumental in getting Snake in Brawl in the first place due to his friendly relationship with Sakurai. In fact, he wanted Snake in Melee! Assuming the status of their friendship is the same, many more questions as to the point of adding Snake come up. What's his status anymore in the Metal Gear franchise? What's his status with the Konami shakeup? Does Konami or Kojima ever plan on bringing Snake or Metal Gear in general back on to a Nintendo system? These are important questions because they determine where Snake stands and whether he even makes sense to come back to Smash for any other reason other than "vet".

Representation
Again, like so many third party characters, Snake represents not just a game franchise but a whole company due to how iconic and important he is. Arguably there are less iconic but more "relevant to Nintendo" characters that could fill his spot in terms of Konami representation, but he's the only choice for Metal Gear. The only question is, does vet status still put him at the top? And even after you answer that question, the issues with Konami begs the question if that company should get representation at all? If you say yes to both, you probably support Snake. I'll just say "maybe". For as much as I love Metal Gear and Snake, I just don't know that I have a good reason why.

Limitations
Snake has a few limitations. He's third party. He's a third party character from a company who's status is in a weird place currently. His relevancy seems to be on a downturn. He hasn't been truly relevant on a Nintendo system in a long long time. He's also a character that arguably could boost the rating of the game, although I think it would only be his reputation that could force that as his appearance alone isn't worth up-rating. Of those limitations, a couple have not mattered in the past: His third party status and his lack of relevancy on Nintendo... although he's far less relevant now than he was even then when he had just two ported games out on Nintendo consoles in the years surrounding Brawl's release in Twin Snakes and MGS3D. The only big eraser to his limitations is his vet status. It proves he can be on the roster and he's at least iconic and unique enough to justify it. It's a matter of how much weight we give his limitations and what exactly the whole Konami/Kojima thing means in all this.

Final Assessment

Chance: 27%

He's just got too many limitations. He's actually got more than Rayman in my opinion, but I boosted his chances over Rayman simply because vet status is very hard to ignore. It does a good deal to erase some of the hit he takes from limitations, due to established uniqueness and having his assets and data just a generation away and seemingly easy enough to port. Still with Konami's status so up in the air it's hard to make a clear judgement, but it's likely safer to assume it wont help. This is a chance percent that could swing wildly depending on what happens next. Even just relevancy on Nintendo systems again would boost Snake's odds up by a good 30%, but it's hard to see that happening. And then there's the fact that he was cut at all. With as iconic as he is, if there was ever a good chance of him returning, you'd think he would've made the cut to begin with.

Want: 77%

Snake was the most hype thing that came out of Brawl for me. When he was revealed, it was unreal. It was the hayday of Metal Gear. Metal Gear Solid: Twin Snakes, Sons of Liberty/Substance, Snake Eater/Subsistence. I got a PS2 only a couple years before I'd gotten a Wii and I was still on the high of these Metal Gear greats. Snake was as relevant as ever and there was no question about his status or his company. Metal Gear even had ports on Nintendo systems recently back then. The hype has waned however. I haven't played a new Metal Gear game since 4 and there's not been a port that I know of since MGS3D which was early in the 3DS's life. And even before Smash 4 was officially announced, me and many other's just had a feeling that Brawl was likely Snake's one and only Smash appearance. I'd accepted that long ago, long before it was confirmed. It's because of this acceptance and the fact that it's hard to argue why he should return other than vet status that my Snake "want vote" isn't 95% like it would be if the atmosphere was still like it was just a couple years after Brawl came out. Still, he's an icon and one of my all time fav video game characters, so he gets a nice chunk of "want" even today.

~~~~

Looks like Wolf's next. I was trying avoid him because he just feels too easy to me. His "chance" votes will crush all other characters so far. I'll aim a bit lower than I believe just because I know there will be a few outlier votes giving him as low as 70% chances, heh. I think there will be a few that don't really want him back, but I'm betting on his want votes being high too just because a lot of people will think he ought to be in if Lucas is.

Predictions for Wolf

Chance: 88.8%
Want: 66.6%

~~~~

2 Points to Sceptile - (that one's for you Delzethin!)
2 Points to Shovel Knight.
1 Point to Bayonetta?

 

[BandanaWaddleDee]

Snake? Snake? SNA- NOOOOOO!!!!!!
Chance: 5%
The only reason Snake got into Brawl was because Kojima (it was him right?) begged Sakurai. And unless he does that again, I don't see any hope for the human reptile.

Want: Snake kinda sucked in Brawl, but he was a heckafun to play as. Honestly though, he was the only vet I was glad got the boot.

Wolf Chance: 99%
Want: 100%

Nominations:
9-Volt x4
Endou Mamoru x1

 

[Mishudo]

Chance: 20% - Nothing saddens me more than the reality that Snake was probably a one time veteran. With how things are with Kojima and just the absence of MGS lately, the only thing that seems going for snake is his debut as a 3rd party character and having an extremely unique moveset.

Want: 100% - Jesus I would love him back, he was so fun! Who else was a heavyweight, grenade throwin, DACUS sliding beast? He was my brawl main for the longest (until I discovered lucas) and overall it would be a shame to see such a great moveset go to waste. He also proved that it doesn't matter if you come from an M rated game.


Prediction: 91.50% - I think the community would implode if he didn't return after Lucas.

Nominations:

Henry Fleming (x2)
Ray (Custom Robo) (x2)
Wonder Red (x1)

Glad I was able to do my first RTC

 

[Warlock*G]

It means that there are more people who don't already have the games, but it also means there may be a lower ceiling on sales since they're less familiar and it means fewer DLC copies sold in Japan too. Honestly, I don't see that being practically unknown in Japan can be spun as a positive factor really. Maybe it's not as negative as some people think, but I still think it's, on the whole, a negative.[...]

I'm all right with everything else that you said, but I have to specify something here: it's not Shantae's obscurity in Japan that I'm spinning as a positive factor per say; it's the potential she has to become well-known over there. A Shantae DLC could translate to new customers and thus new sales; in other terms, this could translate to the possible expansion of the initially low sales ceiling.

Of course, since I'm speaking in terms of potential, I have to grant the proposition that maybe Shantae would bomb over there, who knows?

So it all comes down to this:

do the people at Nintendo feel lucky? If they do, then they can go ahead and make my day. Break some eggs. Make an omelet.

 

[Sabrewulf238]

Snake
Chance - 17%
I'll give him more than Rayman since he's a veteran but I still feel I might be a little generous here....competition for 3rd party slots is bound to be rough after Ryu comes along.

Want - 45%
I'm ok with him coming back and I liked him reasonably enough back in Brawl. I wouldn't be bothered if he didn't come back though.

Nominations:
Bayonetta x3
Chibi Robo x2

 

[FinalStarmen]

Chance: 15%
It's too much of a crapshoot, but I would suggest a low probability. The impeding obstacles cannot be ignored, and the unpredictability factor makes rating Snake's chances any higher than unlikely to be a rather optimistic venture.

Want: 100%
Although I'd much prefer Simon Belmont as a(n unlikely) third-party character if Nintendo was willing to negotiate with Konami (I couldn't care less about Bomberman, with all due respect), I fully understand Snake does not serve as some company's arbitrary representative for their relationship with Nintendo - he's there as a personal favor between friends, and nothing more. I also fully understand, in spite of this reasoning, that Snake was once a fighter and, like Wolf and Ice Climbers (and formerly Mewtwo and Lucas), is still an unfortunate reduction to the roster, no matter who they were.

He is, above all, considered by many to be a fun addition to Brawl's great line-up of newcomers, Nintendo die-hards be damned (the extremist variety, I mean). Roster cuts are almost always painful, especially for dedicated players who specialize in these characters, and losing a unique trap-based fighter is no different. Snake was one-of-a-kind, even if he did stand out like a needle in a haystack, but I suppose that makes him more unusually special.

These are all just subjective notions, though, since Snake is rightfully a controversial subject matter. Some love him, some hate him, and some just don't care either way, and I respect those opinions (as long as a measure of decency is taken).

Projection: 85%
Give or take, I expect it around the mid-eighties, maybe low nineties. It all depends on levels of pessimism and general caution taken.

Nominations:
Ridley x3
Shovel Knight x2

 

[Oasis Dealer]

Snake

Chance:45%
If any 3rd party comes after Ryu, it's Snake or Rayman. Snake is having good support so far, but wether this changes anything, we're not sure. I honestly don't think the Kojima problem with Konami has any hindering on his chances, though it does lose the one person who could sway Konami over to the idea. So really, it's almost half and half on his chances.

Want:100%
I love this character. I haven't played a single MGS game, but I want to badly. Snake in Brawl was such a unique character and possibly the most indef. character to be added. Not only that, but his music was amazing. Encounter, Call into the Night, Dead in the Cell, Theme of Love, they're all amazing songs. Combine that with how I think Snake has a legacy big enough to be in this game, there's nothing stopping me wanting him. He's my #1 character I want to return.