Looks like we've moved onto the limbless wonder Rayman himself. Assessing time.
Here's my picture of the categories I'll use for assessing characters again again...
These points are for making a best estimate of their chances, although the weight of each category is still unknown at this time. Other unforeseen factors could keep the character from being added. I'll likely post this at the start of all my assessments.
Rayman
Popularity
Rayman's popularity is a bit hard to gauge atm. I know it's up there but it just has this sneaky feeling to it. Most polls I've seen seem to have him as a top 5 third party newcomer. I wouldn't say he's notably cracked into the top 10 of all newcomers recently. I feel like Banjo stole some of his third party thunder in the last couple weeks. And then there's the indies like Shovel Knight and Shantae experiencing popularity boosts. Rayman's high point was right after the fake leak but he's maintained a respectable following even as other third party characters experience their own "high points". I do get this feeling however, that he has staying power to rival the others, but we'll see.
Importance
Rayman is the main character of his eponymously named games. Like so many third party and unrepresented characters looking to join the Smash roster, he is his games' main protagonist and obvious rep. He's pretty much Ubisoft's mascot as well, giving him a status similar to Sonic and Pac-man, though perhaps not to that high of a degree. Still, Ubisoft is a big name and although Rayman might not be the most iconic mascot of a big name third party developer, he's arguably at least somewhat iconic and a mascot all the same. If Ubisoft is getting a rep, Rayman is clearly the first choice. And when you look around at the other companies that are unrepresented that could believably sneak their third party reps into Smash, few seem to beat Rayman's status. This all is helped by the fact that he's been at least relatively good to Nintendo throughout his fairly long history. He's no Shantae, but much of Rayman's success early on was with Nintendo. This was even recognized by Sakurai and co with the inclusion of Rayman trophies in Smash 4.
Uniqueness
Rayman by his very concept is unique. A limbless "something" man? I suppose he's a "ray man", but I really don't know. I think the story behind him is that he's some kind of spirit and one of a kind in his own universe. Yeah, there's some more uniqueness points. Given his unique appearance, it's no surprise that he comes with a unique set of skills and abilities too. Rayman uses his arms and legs as midrange projectiles... no one else can really say as much. In fact, I see Rayman playing almost like Duck Hunt in that regard. Yeah, a lot of his moves would be totally disjointed.... pun intended. It had to done. Rayman's hair is also it's own kind of "weapon" with it's "spinning" ability that also allows him to float a la Dixie. Other than that, he comes with a few other tricks up his sleeve like being able to shoot long range projectiles in the form of energy balls or lum assisted attacks. He's also been known to randomly use fruit to attack enemies, but not like Pac-Man, more like Peach. If that's not enough uniqueness for you, just remember... he has no arms or legs.
Relevance
I'm actually not sure how relevant Rayman is. I think Rayman Legends might've been his last game and it's somewhere between 4 and 2 years old I think. Respectable relevancy I guess. And even if it had been longer, he's a brand icon so he's likely to always be relevant as long as Ubisoft doesn't officially announce their ditching him... but then that would be like Sega ditching Sonic. Of special note is his relevancy on Nintendo systems still. Although Ubisoft did pull exclusivity of their last Rayman game on Nintendo consoles, it came out for them all the same. The recent leak also reinvigorated the notion that he could be a great addition to Smash.
Representation
Like I stated in the importance category, Rayman is a company icon and mascot to Ubisoft as well as the main character of his very own game series that happened to be named after him. So yeah, he not only represents a franchise but a company. The only question is whether we want Ubisoft to have representation in Smash. Capcom, Namco, and Sega do, so it's not like he wouldn't make sense. Even the Ryu leak opens up the door for possibly more third party representation too. If we're to get plenty more DLC and third parties will get more reps, I definitely wouldn't mind Rayman being one of them. I'll just give a
"sure" regarding Rayman being represented through more than just trophies.
Limitations
Rayman is third party, and although he's a company icon, third party status is still a barrier to inclusion just due to the legal hoops that must be jumped through. Ubisoft and Nintendo's relationship isn't clearly great atm either, like Capcom's. I will say, however, that of any third party he seems to have his foot furthest in the door. Getting represented in trophies is more than any other popular third party rep can say. I know, Ryu.. but I'm talking about outside that leak for now, okay. Other than that, Rayman has few limitations when you consider all the other categories.
Final Assessment
Chance: 18%
This is about as high a chance as I'll give any third party character that's not named Snake or Ryu at this point. Rayman has just enough of all the right things to have great odds considering his major limitation. He's decently popular, he's decently iconic, he's very unique, and he's decently relevant. And he seems to at least have his foot in the door... his disembodied foot.
Want: 62%
Admittedly, I'm a big Rayman fan from way back but haven't played any of his games in years. I know Rayman mostly from his first and second games, both of which I loved. I actually wrote up a dream roster back in the early Melee days in which I envisioned Rayman being playable. I also had a ton of other characters unrealistically included too, heh. The fondness for Rayman still lingers, but it's faded with the years. I'm fairly indifferent to his Smash 4 inclusion. I gave him a boost above 50% though because if we have to get more third party characters, Rayman is among the most deserving imo... and just for old time sake as well.
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Well, looks like my points are being put to good use since we're doing a characters I've been voting for next again. Here's how I think the thread will vote for Snake...
Predictions for Snake
Chance: 32.1%
Want: 54.3%
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2 Points to Sceptile - (that one's for you Delzethin!)
2 Points to Shovel Knight.
1 Point to Bayonetta?
I don't want to pick Wolf because I don't think it would be interesting even though I really want him too.
