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Rate their Chances: the DLC Edition. Day: 192: The final day

LasermasterA

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Found this thread again. Looks like Shovel Knight will have to bear with my ratings now:

Chance: 5%

+Anything goes
+Surge of popularity due to Artsy Omni render
+Could be unlikely Indie representative
+Cool shovel based moveset

- Indie
- Not released in Japan
- Only one year old
- Multiplat
- Not THAT popular
- Not iconic enough

Want: 5%
I am pretty indifferent to him. I haven't played his game although it sounds as an awesome tribute to old Nintendo games. If an indie character was to make in the game, it should not be him. Atleast someone with more popularity like Shantae who got obliterated in this thread.

Prediction:
Quote - 5% (Who is he?) apparently an Indie, so I don't expect much

Nominations:
Let's help out -
Phoenix Wright x5

Well what do you know! All 5s! My post will be easy to tabulate :p
 

Toon612Link

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Shovel knight
Chance: 0% I feel like 2 indie characters would be too much for SSB4, Shantae has been more loyal to Nintendo than Shovel knight.
Want: 0% If shovel knight did get in, it would pretty much Un-confirm Shantae. And I would be very mad the ballet isn't rigged. (You can't trust the community)

Nomination: Tetra x5
 
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FalKoopa

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SHOVEL KNIGHT:
CHANCE: 0%
WANT: 55%

Any indie third party will get a 0% in chance from me at the moment. Shovel knight doesn't have a particularly important history with Nintendo; his game is on all consoles and PC. His game is planned to get a Japanese release, which is unlikely to change anything immediately. He's exactly legendary either, his game got rave reviews across the community, but he's only a year old. Shantae actually has a better resumé than him, being a part of a series, and staying with Nintendo since the Game Boy Color.

I've played his game (PC version), and while I certainly enjoyed it and think that he can translate well in Smash, I'm only mildly interested.

QUOTE PREDICTION: 16%

NOMINATIONS: IVYSAUR × 5

:231:
 

Mikegamer0608

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Shovel Knight
Chance: 5%
Want: 0%
I've never played his game and he's only one year old with one game under his belt. I really don't see him making it. Maybe if I played his game I would maybe want him more.

Nom: Black Mage x5
 
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jahkzheng

Smash Lord
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Messages
1,653
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Northern California
Well, I've been getting overly wordy, even for me. I can be excused for Wolf since I really like him and ended up having plenty to say, but we'll see if I can tone it down for Shovel Knight here. Probably since I have little to say about him really.

Here's my picture of the categories I'll use for assessing characters again again...
These points are for making a best estimate of their chances, although the weight of each category is still unknown at this time. Other unforeseen factors could keep the character from being added. I'll likely post this at the start of all my assessments.

Shovel Knight

Popularity
Shovel Knight is a new well loved game out on multiple platforms. It's a throwback to classic NES sidescrolling and is thusly popular for hitting a homerun in that regard. As a result, Shovel Knight is on a popularity high. Among "indie" third party characters, only Shantae has arguably competitive support. Among all third party characters in general, Shovel Knight has snuck into top 5 placings but is mainly a just inside top 10 most wanted material. Among all newcomers, he's got a bit more in the way. And in Japan and internationally in general, he's not even on the radar due to his games being so new and only really known stateside so far.

Importance
Shovel Knight is the protagonist of his own game. So, like so many third party characters, he's the most important piece in his game. I say "game" however, because he's only been on one game so far. He's a total newbie on the scene. Yes, his game has been very popular and is cleverly made in a classic style, but he's nowhere as "classic" as the style his game emulates. This is the category where Shovel Knight really suffers. Yes, he's gotten a good start and his future looks bright, but all he's had is a "start". Add to this the fact that he's shown up on Nintendo systems but is showing no signs that he's committed to them. Shantae at least spent many years loyal to Nintendo. Shovel Knights barely out of the gate and is looking for greener pastures. Nintendo and Shovel Knight may not have any lasting attachment to each other.

Uniqueness
Well, Shovel Knight is certainly unique. A knight that fights with a shovel. Wish I could say more but I'm still of the group that has Shovel Knight on their list of games to get around to playing. I've certainly been recommended the game enough times. I understand that he can dig obviously, but also attacks with the shovel, often from above. Although I don't know all his moves obviously, there's certainly room for potential. He could have a number of moves that behave like Villager's down smash perhaps. Maybe they could watch Mystery Men for references on "shovel arts", heh. Either way, Shovel Knight seems like he at least has easy potential for uniqueness.

Relevance
Shovel Knight is very relevant. In fact, it's this fact, coupled with the fact that his game is well liked and well received, that has boosted Shovel Knight into the conversation at all to begin with. If this DLC thing had happened two years after Shovel Knight's game came out and he'd already been ported over to Playstation and Xbox, then we may not be discussing him right now. But that's not how it is. Shovel Knight is still quite relevant and fresh, and still largely associated with Nintendo. We'll check on him and see where his stands in terms of relevancy and with Nintendo a couple years down the road.

Representation
I'll be brief here as I often repeat myself in this category, paraphrasing what I say in the "importance" category... particularly if the subject is third party characters that are the sole obvious representatives of their series or company. Shovel Knight is another one of those. He's the main protagonist and the obvious rep for his game. He's also the de facto mascot of Yacht Club since they've done nothing else and he's been a success. If you feel Shovel Knight or Yacht Club should be represented in Smash for their one game on Nintendo systems within the last year, then you're all for Shovel Knight obviously. For me though, I'm going to have to give both game and company a "no". Their loyalty is unproven. Their series is one game old. They're indie third party. They're relatively hardly exposed yet. I just don't see that they have the justification of Shantae who's actually been around and loyal to Nintendo, as well as more exposed. All they and Shovel Knight have is current popularity and a good game.

Limitations
I'll repeat the last part of the "reps" section. First of all, and this is big, he's "indie" third party. Yes, Shantae is arguably "indie" too but she's got history and loyalty with Nintendo and competes well in popularity and relevancy with Shovel Knight... and even She had plenty of limitations already. Speaking of loyalty and history, Shovel Knight has none and that's why I brought it up. Few characters have more limitations than Shovel Knight.

Final Assessment

Chance: 2.2%

Far too many limitations. Even Banjo, who is locked up with Microsoft and I gave my lowest chance score to date to, actually is iconic enough to possibly climb out of that hole and break barriers. Shovel Knight is not even a year old and he's already jumping ship with Nintendo, and it's not like Shovel Knight was the big successful title of Banjo-Kazooie. Admittedly, Shovel Knight was quite successful for what it is. The fact that he's even in this conversation is a testament to that. But he's still the property of an "indie" third party developer with no commitments or history with Nintendo.. or history at all.

Want: 10%

Sadly for Shovel Knight, I just don't know much about him and I just don't see any justification. It's not like I don't see the appeal though and I could see him being unique. But at the end of the day he's not pushed me into throwing him more "want percent" than just this handful I'll grant him for being a cool concept with unique potential. Plus, if we were even to get an indie third party character for some crazy reason, I'd hope it would be Shantae.

~~~~

Time to assess how the thread will assess Quote of Cave Story. He doesn't have the popularity boost because of relevancy that Shovel Knight has, but I can see him having just as good a "chance" vote from the thread as was given to the knight for being more "established". After seeing Shovel Knight's much lower "want" than I anticipated I'm going to give Quote a relative lower "want" prediction in anticipation of maybe only slightly better results. Admittedly, I'm fairly clueless as to how the thread will feel about him, heh...

Predictions for Quote

Chance: 4.8%
Want: 13.7%


~~~~

Continuing to make sure that "Any NPC becomes playable" request happens before Ridley.

3 Points to *Concept: Any NPC becomes playable*
1 Points to Sceptile
- (that one's for you Delzethin!)
1 Point to Bayonetta?
 
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Nonno Umby

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Chance: 0%
Popular, but just in USA. In Japan he is unknown, and in Europe he is pretty obscure. Also he is too young for being an icon, even among indie characters.IMO, Shanate would be way more appropriate for being the "indie rep".
Want: 20%
Would be cool.
 
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KingofPhantoms

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Shovel Knight - 1%

Popular of a choice on the ballot he may be, that alone won't be enough to get him in or be of serious consideration. He's still a third-party character after all, and one who only has a single game that's not even a year old yet. Third-parties still have quite a bit of special criteria required for them to get a spot in Smash, let alone be seriously considered in the first place.

There's also the fact that his game has yet to see release in Japan, so there's probably only a small amount of people over there who know about the game. Not like Shovel Knight has much else going for him in the first place, but he certainly isn't doing good in this factor either.

Want - 50%

He seems like a neat and interesting character, but I've yet to play Shovel Knight, so I have no personal want for him.

Nominations: Tetra x5
 

IvanQuote

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Hoo boy...the negativity is so thick you could cut it with a shovel...

Shovel Knight:

Chance: 9%

Only has one game under his belt and is around a year old. No matter the (provincial) popularity, this will hurt him.

Want: 60%

A bit more than indifferent.

Quote Predict (this will pain me...)

Chance: 9.5%

Want: 50%

Nom: "Homecoming Hijinx" DK song x3
"Moonstruck Blossom" Kirby Song x2
 
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[Obnoxshush/Dasshizer]

Off floating somewhere
Joined
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Messages
5,209
Chance 1%

Want 0%
I'd rather have an obscure first party character than another third party character

Nomination:
BB bandit trio (Fossil Fighters) X5
 

ZecaOMestre

Smash Apprentice
Joined
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Messages
146
Shovel Knight

Chance: 3%
Popular, but still an indie game that is yet to be released in Japan. Also, he is not even close with the rest of 3rd parties in terms of legendary-status.

Want: 0%

Quote prediction: 2,4%

Nominations:
N x5
 

Oasis Dealer

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Shovel Knight
Chance:10%
He really doesn't have much of a chance. Only a year old, and more important 3rd party characters are wanted. I don't think he's just going to get in because of a critically acclaimed game. However...

Want: 100%
Call me crazy, but I love this character. I haven't played the game yet, but it looks amazing. Shovel Knight is my 'Not going to happen' character. He would be an amazing fit in this game, And I simply want him in this game because he looks cool and his game's great. I feel like this is the reason people want him in in the first place. Not because of importance or history; It's just because we like the character and want him in. Is that a good reason to want him in? No. Will it stop people requesting him? No. I'm not saying requesting him a lot will get him in, but that's just my reason as to why people want him in the first place.
 

Sid-cada

Smash Lord
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Shovel Knight

Chance - 0% - Unaware of a fan base for him in Japan, and only has just had an announcement of localization. With a chance this bad, it looks bleak.

Want - 35% - Give it a few months, and I'm certain he will die down to oblivion.


Quote prediction - 5.64% - Should do worse than Shantae, but better than Shovel Knight.

Nominations
New Guidance Conversations X3
Anna (FE) X2
 
D

Deleted member

Guest
The Directory has been updated.

Shovel Knight
Chance:
.001%

Take everything that I said about Shantae, multiply it by 10 and add in the fact that he only had one game and that it was never released in Japan.
I think Shovel Knight has the biggest uphill battle I've seen, even with his very vocal American support.

Want: 25%
I've played a bit of Shovel Knight as I've heard nothing but praise about it and I think it deserves all the praise it gets; it's an amazing game from what I've played.
Does that convince me to support him? Not really. In a game about Nintendo's all-stars, he is very far from one... he needs more games to convince me that he should earn a spot.

Quote Prediction: 6.10%
Looking at these scores now, he's doomed. Holy crap, we've been rating a ton of indies.

Nominations: DLC Alt Costumes for Characters 5x
 

YoshiandToad

Smash Hero
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Messages
7,123
Location
Still up Peach's dress.

K. Rool:
Day missed.

Banjo-Kazooie:
Chance: 9%
Want: 85%

Isaac:
Chance: 55%
Want: 75%

Bandana Dee:
Chance: 40%
Want: 100%

Captain Toad:
Chance: 45%
Want: 100%

Krystal:
Chance: 25%
Want: 50%

Dixie Kong:
Chance: 66%
Want: 100%

Impa:
Chance: 28%
Want: 100%

Shantae:
Chance: 1%
Want: 5%

Inklings:
Chance: 62%
Want: 70%

Rayman:
Chance: 33%
Want: 90%

Snake:
Day missed. Whoops.

:wolf:
Chance: 100%
Want: 80%


Shovel Knight:

If you thought I was mean to Shantae, prepare for a venomous barrage;

Chance: 0.3%
Don't know if you remember when I called Shantae essentially a nobody in terms of third party powerhouses, but Shovel Knight is that x 10.
Way more recently debuted, so he has no history to build him up as a powerhouse. No particular connection at all to Nintendo, and I doubt his creator is besties with Sakurai like Kojima was.
Can you honestly see Shovel Knight sitting alongside Pac-Man, Sonic, Megaman or maybe even Snake and Ryu? If you can you have a considerably better imagination than me.
Also possibly you are suffering from severe delusion.

Like Shantae but with less games, less well known in Japan even(so far they only know of him because westerners keep voting for him in the ballot), and less association with Nintendo. I gave Shantae a piddly 1% and I think she's considerably more likely than Shovel Knight.
The ballot may pull through, but a character with little appeal to Japan and niche popularity at best in the west makes him one of the safer 'popular' characters to bet against.

In b4 someone states his company want him and thus we should consider him.
Because hardly anyone ever wants their characters in Super Smash Bros, right?

Want: 0%
A really delayed European release combined with believing there's a lot more worthwhile additions than a faceless knight who pogosticks on a garden tool make my want for him pretty darn low.
His fans love his game, which is fine, but his love and demand seems really overblown and at current he really has no place in Super Smash Bros just because he's been in a singular multiplatform indie game that hasn't even been quite released in Japan yet.

As weird as Wii Fit Trainer was as a choice, at least her game is an important part of Nintendo history, and the Wii was an important part of gaming history dragging even non gamers (briefly) into gaming.

I feel a lot of people saw her inclusion and instantly assumed any and everything was allowed now.

Quote Prediction: 2%
At least he's known in Japan, and is pretty much the face of Indie games. Still hugely unlikely.
Nominations:
Wonder Red X 3
Vaati X 2
 
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Amiiboshiibo

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Mar 20, 2015
Messages
249
Shovel Knight is most likely going to get the exact opposite results of what Wolf got.

Chance: 3% - Basically what everyone else said. Shovel Knight is way too new, not released in Japan, on multiple platforms, third party, and an indie game.

Want: 1% - I never played Shovel Knight.

Predictions:
Quote - Cave Story:
Chance: 20%
Want: 50%

Nominations:
Ice Climbers x2
Birdo x3
 

DNeon

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Shovel Knight:

Chances: 2%

Almost entirely convinced it won't happen. It's a popular indie game, and it's first console release was Wii U but it's not exclusive, semi popular here but not even known in Japan. Loooong shot for this to get in.

Want: 80%

And yet I want it, I want it so bad. He just fits SO well. He has a tonne of potential. He's a cool character and I don't know what else to say.

Prediction:

Quote: 4%

Votes: Advance Wars character
 

Sabrewulf238

Smash Hero
Joined
Oct 17, 2007
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5,164
Location
Ireland
Shovel Knight
Chance - 0.1%
I feel like I'm already being very generous. At one point I thought he might have a chance but when I learned his game isn't even released in Japan yet that killed him straight off for me. If we were to get an Indie character, I don't think it would be this guy.

Want - 15%
Not really, mostly just because it would be pretty cool to see an indie character in Smash....but I haven't played Shovel Knight and I don't really care about him.

Nominations:
Bayonetta x3
Chibi Robo x2
 

Scamper52596

Smash Lord
Premium
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Shovel Knight
Chance: 1.5%
An indie with little to no ties with Nintendo, not even a year old, moderately popular in the gaming scene, but not known in Japan. I just don't see what there is about this guy to think that he's likely to become playable in the slightest. I don't really have anything else to add. I'll give the 8-bit nostalgia character a score of 1.5% likelihood.
Only if Sakurai wakes up one morning and wants to do something out of the blue...

Want: 2%
Sorry, but I just don't care to have him playable in Smash. The only reason I gave him 2% is because I'd be curious to see how his official artwork matched with that of Artsy Omni's vision of Shovel Knight in Smash. That's it.

Prediction - Quote: 4.6%

Nominations:
x4 Toon Zelda
x1 Tetra
 

BandanaWaddleDee

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Oh jeez, Shovel Knight.
Chance: 0%
Let's be real for a second. He has absolutely no chance. He had one game, barely any history with Nintendo, didn't release in Japan, and did nothing revolutionary. Anyone giving him more than a 1%, just BURY the thought.
Want: 0%
If this knight gets in as DLC, I just don't even know. He really doesn't deserve a spot.

Quote Prediction:
Chance: 9%
Want: 45%

Nominations:
9-Volt x4
Endou Mamoru x1
 

Chalo5000

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Shovel Knight 0.01%

He could get in, but it's really unlikely :ohwell:

Want 40%

He would be a unique character, but I'm not a big fan of him

Quote: Im predicting 7%

Hoo boy...the negativity is so thick you could cut it with a shovel...

Shovel Knight:

Chance: 9%

Only has one game under his belt and is around a year old. No matter the (provincial) popularity, this will hurt him.

Want: 60%

A bit more than indifferent.

Quote Predict (this will pain me...)

Chance: 9.5%

Want: 50%

Nom: "Homecoming Hijinx" DK song x3
"Moonlit Blossom" Kirby Song x2
It's called Moonstruck Blossom, not Moonlite XD

Tetra x 2
Moonstruck Blossom x 2
Bubsy x 1
 
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cephalopod17

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Shovel Knight

Chance: .5%
Just don't see it happening. He has not had a global release yet, less than a year old, multi-platform and indie. The only hope he has is the Smash Ballot, and even though he may be doing okay in regions where his game has been released, the Japanese fanbase has no clue who he is.

Want: 5%
I have nothing against Shovel Knight. Cool character and I really enjoy the game. I just don't want him in Smash. He isn't iconic enough for me. Rayman sure. Snake? Why not? Shovel Knight is a nobody in the gaming industry right now and doesn't deserve to be in Nintendo's All Star game.

Quote Prediction : 6%

Henry Fleming x5
 

BluePikmin11

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Shovel Knight Chance:
5%
Shovel Knight is an icon within indie gaming, he quickly became an icon when his game released. Now he's gaining a staggering amount of requests in the West thanks to Artsy Omni's render and the ballot and Yacht Club Games supporting his inclusion for the ballot. I seen him in almost every videogame site imaginable, there's always one article praising Shovel Knight's sprited artstyle and gameplay. He's a big indie icon right now, enough to qualify for the Smash ballot. Again, the game is getting a Japanese release soon:

http://yachtclubgames.com/2015/04/out-now-on-playstation-xbox-one-date-japan-updates-and-lullabies/
We’re very excited to announce that Shovel Knight is preparing for his trek to Japan! There’s lot’s to be done, but we’re moving forward with a plan and a fantastically passionate publishing team! We’ll have more details to share soon! This also means a new Japanese language option is coming to all versions of the game — perfect for adventurers picking up new language skills or those seeking a slightly new adventure!
The circumstances can be changed for Shovel Knight since the ballot only lasts till October, it is enough time for Sakurai to get some background on what his game is about and to get familar with his moveset potential. Some of you need to change your ratings and raise it just a bit, I thought we remembered the article a while ago, or are we just ignoring it completely?

Overall, Shovel Knight does have a shot now and he is a pretty major competitor in terms of indie characters for Smash thanks to the upcoming Japanese release. Not the greatest chance, but the possibility is there.

Shovel Knight Want:
45%
I like his game and bought it when it was discounted in January, it's pretty good game. Love the music in the game and certainly wouldn't mind his inclusion.

Quote Prediction:
14.6% Pretty unpredictable, but I imagine this will be around the 8%-10%.
Nominations:
x5 Young Link
 
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Moydow

The fairest of them all
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Shovel Knight

Chance: 0%
Seems to have a bit of support in the US, but his game was never released in Japan, is pretty unheard of over here, and is a fairly small third-party multiplatform indie title. None of that adds up to "likely candidate for Smash" in my book.

Want: 0%
I'd never even heard of Shovel Knight until he started getting support for the ballot.

Prediction for Quote: 5%
Again, never heard of Quote or Cave Story until now.

Nominate: Phoenix Wright x5
 

Zajice

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11,167
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Chance: 0%
Want: 0%

Shovel Knight is an awesome game, but it's not nearly big enough to take a spot in Smash over a myriad of other characters. I really don't think any indie has a chance. And as fun as the game is, I just don't have any attachment to the character. He's pretty much a faceless suit of armor with no real personality.
 

Sarki Soliloquy

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Jun 8, 2013
Messages
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Location
Andover, MA, USA
Character Chance Ratings

1: Wolf - 97.5%
2: Rayman - 60%
3: Snake - 55%
4: Inkling - 50%
5: Krystal - 45%
6: Dixie Kong - 43%
7: Impa - 40.5%
8: Captain Toad - 30%
9: Shantae - 20.5%
10: Shovel Knight - 20%

Character Want Ratings

1: Shovel Knight - 100%
1: Wolf - 100%
2: Shantae - 87%
3: Snake - 85%
3: Impa - 85%
4: Inkling - 30%
5: Rayman - 25%
6: Krystal - 20%
6: Dixie Kong - 20%
7: Captain Toad: 5.5%

Abstains (Inactivity)

King K. Rool
Banjo-Kazooie
Isaac

Abtsains (Indifference)

n/A

RATINGS

Shovel Knight

~~
~\m/~


Chance - 20%: Much like Shantae, Shovel Knight comes from really hard straits and it'll take much more effort than his astoundingly vocal Western fanbase to beat out the rest of the competition. Shovel Knight is currently a Top 5-10 contender in supplemental Ballot polls. In fact, one poll had him take King K. Rool to second. If that wasn't enough, Yacht Club has expressed support for Shovel Knight in Smash, as well as more attention being drawn to him through Artsy Omni's Smashified render of him.

For such an itty-bitty one-game-old indie, Shovel Knight's overwhelming fan praise and game success made a game that would be a relatively obscure cult classic to perhaps the biggest hit game of last year. And this only continues to grow as he makes his way to PS4 and Xbone. I mean, listen to this. A Kickstarter-funded game that initially strove for a Nintendo exclusive release, Shovel Knight was received so positively that it became super notable out of the 3rd-rate console of this generation and received expanded ports to the stronger competition.

Yet that comes with a price. Shovel Knight wouldn't be able to see the light of day if Yacht Club didn't meet Steam's baseline goal. From the start, his history has an awkward divide with Nintendo and Steam. This discounts his Nintendo star status. Yacht Club is expanding the game outward instead of trying to build their base Nintendo exclusive.

Speaking of which, a glimmer of hope comes from the fact that Shovel Knight is receiving Japanese ports. Whether his game will spread like wildfire over there as it did here remains to be seen. But Shovel Knight is already a niche support at best for Japan. This adds a layer of obscurity that severely hurts his chances. Much like Shantae and she has been around for a good couple decades. Depending on how far the Ballot will run in correlation with Shovel Knight's port, I can only hope that the Japanese will blow up his requests, and will combine with the massive Western support and snowball into his inclusion.

It's no question that Shovel Knight will be a very unique addition to the Smash cast. For those of you convinced otherwise or are on the fence, I highly recommend you come along down to the support thread or check out my moveset for him. In short, Shovel Knight's Shovel Sword allows him to have some digging centric attacks and some utility with burying and pogo-jumping. He also has a bevy of Relics he uses on his adventures, which all make for some neat special moves in their own right. The Troupple King can be involved in his Final Smash as well.

Want - 100%: Admittedly, I'm biased to the Blue Burrower. He was the second character I voted in the Ballot! Shovel Knight remains to be one of my top platformers of all time, and the experience of that game and his quirky character really correlated with me when I saw he was leading in the polls by a considerable margin.

Shovel Knight feels like the perfect character to get in through the means of the Ballot. He takes so much from games such as Mega Man, Metroid, Zelda II, etc. and his game is a celebration of that. It's like he's the perfect fan character for the fan ballot! Sakurai has recently gone on record saying that DLC characters are "to make the fans happy [sic]," so all these largely negative chance detractors feel really unwarranted, honestly. Yes, I understand that Sakurai won't be able to please all fanbases and we have no concrete number on DLC characters we're getting, which brings huge risks. But whether or not to deny Shovel Knight his chance on a legendary stage is up to him.

As for my stance on indies being in Smash, I've copypasted this argument from my rating for Shantae day:
Captain Hotcakes said:
Before I begin, I would like to refer back to my early point about Sakurai's 3rd party criteria. Would I like to see this rule change? Yes indeed! For the most part, the exceptions people observe around these are thoughtform from speculators. They aren't inscribed in some holy epitaph wedged in a manila folder somewhere in Sakurai's desk. It would make the process easier for many great characters if the fans didn't take it so seriously, for one (myself included, as much as I try to stray away from these.) Secondly, the ballot was made for us, the fans. So even if the masses want friggin' Baby Metal Wireframe Bubsy the Bobcat-hog Jr., then Sakurai and his team will make that come true as a token of gratitude. Thirdly, which also ties in with why I think we deserve an indie character in Smash, it would be extremely inspiring for every indie dev out there to see their oh-so miniscule character make it into the cast of Nintendo all-stars. It shows that no matter how little our efforts amount, how small our profits reap, how futile our ideas are celebrated, you're still one of us. The people behind many of those games are very talented and can create a damn good game that can even be classic-worthy. But no, only the AAA übermensch can only be legendary enough for Smash. And whoever makes it will forever be enshrined as a pioneer of the indie community. Commander Video's cameo as a trophy and Nintendo's support of indies already shows their willingness. So let's make it as big as we know we can.
I'm not saying that "indies deserve to get in because ya gotta be nice to the little guys," or that "indies deserved to get in because they'll inflate their character's fame on a world stage." Let's remain open to the idea of indies being eligible for Smash because they have a lot of considerable picks if we're wide open to 3rd parties, because there aren't many "legends" left from within Nintendo or even major developers left to be represented. Sakurai's near impossible to predict, so whatever direction he wants to take the roster in will immediately be incorporated into fan speculation no matter what. So whenever this law begins to, if whittle apart, having an open mindset to this will soften the blows to our conservative paradigms.

Finally, I would like to paint you a persuasive paragraphical picture. Shovel Knight has departed headway into the PS4 and Xbox One. In each version, he will face some secret bosses that remain to be icons of their respective systems. We have Shovel Knight fighting Kratos, the God of War and even earns a special armor set that haves him fight like him too, complete with special mechanics. Shovel Knight will also go against the Battletoads in the XB1 version, which comes out in the week as of the writing of this post.


Meanwhile, Nintendo Wii U & 3DS got the welcome launch they deserved. Shovel Knight's popularity and praise were skyrocketed past the Steam version. Sure, Plague of Shadows and the other stretch goals will come to us too. But how come we can't get some exclusive expansion content of our own?

What if the reward for the gratitude of the Smash and Nintendo fans, Shovel Knight joins the battle? Where he will have a whole cast of Nintendo all-stars to battle than could ever imagine?


PREDICTION

Quote

Chance - 23.5%
Want - 46.38%


NOMINATIONS

Concept: No DLC Characters After Fighter Ballot x3
Galacta Knight x1
Sceptile x1
 
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TCT~Phantom

Smash Master
Writing Team
Joined
Dec 10, 2013
Messages
3,965
NNID
TCT~Phantom
Shovel Knight
Chance:20%
There's a Japanese release on the way. Shovel Knight is one of the biggest stars in the indie world at this point, and as such, has a ton of support from fans. He ranks rather high on fan polls about the ballot. Nintendo does want to show their love of indie stuff more nowadays. I would say that an Indie character has a good shot, and I would say that Shovel Knight has it due to his popularity alone. People might say he's too new or that he is simply put not Nintendo due to having his game released on other consoles, but at this point, its likely that Nintendo will continue to get Shovel Knight games, seeing as there are plans for a sequal or two (Super Shovel Knight and Shovel Knight 64).
Want: 80%
Shovel Knight is a brilliant game. Definately reccomend it. -20% due to the fact that I also want Shantae, who also has a good resume.

Nominating Concept: Rhythm Heaven Character x 5
 

FooltheFlames

needs hugs~<3
Joined
Oct 27, 2008
Messages
951
Location
Ashley's Haunted Mansion!
Chance 17%
An indie game niether developed or even published by the big N. The only reason I rate him this high is becuz of his high vote tally in the Smash ballot.

Want 39%
Shovel Knight's down aerial would be super fun to use if it was implemented like it was in his game (Shovel Knight fans should know what i'm talking about) As a Link main in all 4 games, I always enjoyed how Link's Dair worked in 64 & Melee at low percents. Now, with the new awesome meteor effect on it, it's arguably improved but I still miss that special feeling of hopping on my opponents multiple times while following them in the air :3

Quote Prediction: 9%

Nominations
Paper Mario x 3
Ashley x 2
 
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edsett

Smash Apprentice
Joined
Feb 20, 2014
Messages
121
Shovel Knight
Chance: 1%
Despite US popularity and upcoming Japan release, Shovel Knight has the most faults of any DLC candidate. He's a year old third party indie character. His ONE game is multiplat with exclusive content for PS4 and Xbone and nothing for Nintendo. All in all, the critical acclaim and popularity of his game doesn't conceal the fact he has miniscule history with Nintendo and is practically unknown in Japan. It doesn't help that Japan seems to be apathetic to him. Another thing is that his inclusion would benefit Yacht Club waaaaaaay more than Nintendo, as in Nintendo literally loses or gains nothing from adding (or excluding) Shovel Knight.

Want: 0%
NES Nostalgia Bait the character. I'm with mynameisv - I'm sick of Shovel Knight and I've actually played (and enjoyed) his game. Shovel Knight has done nothing worthwhile to be in Smash. There are other characters with just as unique movesets who should be in Smash over him.

Quote Prediction: 7.5%
 
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Delzethin

Character Concept Creator
Joined
Mar 23, 2012
Messages
3,972
Location
St. Louis, MO
NNID
Delzethin
Yacht Club Games struck gold with their newest release...but will it be enough to see their star entrench himself into Smash?

Well...

--

Shovel Knight

Chance: 3%
Seeing Shovel Knight be as popular as he is makes me smile, really. A character from a game by a previously-unknown indie company is seeing this kind of fame? And the best part is why he's become so well known: his game is just that good. A character on the rise with (for the moment) huge support and a surprisingly solid moveset to work from by the endgame, could he make it into Smash?

...Not with all the issues he faces. Just off the bat, he's brand new, his entire series less than a year old. While he may have a massive following right now, who's to say how popular he'd be a couple years from now? Further hurting him is the fact that every third party addition to Smash has been particularly iconic...and he hasn't even existed long enough to reach that status. Not saying he couldn't reach that point eventually...but we don't know yet and he isn't right now. The final nail in the coffin? Shovel Knight is still months away from debuting in Japan. Ask the Japanese fanbase about him, and in response you'll probably get "Who?"

It isn't even a situation like with Marth in Melee. Fire Emblem had been going strong for over ten years in Japan at that point. But for a character who debuted late in 2014 to have an entire side of the world that isn't interested in him, it hurts.

Maybe he'll be a contender when Smash 5 rolls around, but for now, Shovel Knight's chances are six feet under.

Want: Abstain
Even with all I've heard about the game, how much praise I've seen it receive...I have yet to play Shovel Knight. I just haven't had the financial means. Hopefully that changes soon...


Quote Prediction: 11.50%
The grandaddy of all indies can't escape the fact that he's still third party and still isn't an icon on the level of the ones we've seen in Smash. He'll score higher than Shantae or Shovel Knight, but not by much.


Nominations: Sceptile x5
Grass Knot would be a pretty awesome down special. Set a plant in the ground that snares the first opponent who touches it, damaging them more the heavier they are and causing them to trip.
 
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BKupa666

Barnacled Boss
Moderator
Joined
Aug 12, 2008
Messages
7,788
Location
Toxic Tower
Shovel Knight:

Chance - 0.1%
"What's a Shovel Knight?" --Japanese user translated in PushDustin's blog

A bunch of other people took a lot of the words right out of my mouth. It's funny, the fact that it already took him this long into RTC's lifespan despite my daily votes for the past two weeks is indicative of him losing what little steam he had to begin with. This ballot is a marathon, not a sprint, and Shovel Knight's Western pocket of fans (read: his only pocket of fans) sprinted out ahead. This is the part where they get passed by literally every other remotely big name character. Speaking of big names, I've seen people say "Shovel Knight is super iconic, show people on the street who he is and they'll know him." I can't help but think it's the same sort of insanity that's leading some people to think he stands a ghost of a chance at being chosen from this thing. He's precisely the sort of character who led Iwata and Sakurai to deem the ballot a suggestion box, not a poll...so they wouldn't be committed to a choice with such limited appeal should it actually take first place.

Food for thought: Sakurai supposedly turned down Rayman. Snake got cut for some reason. The Commander Video creators had to beg and go through a lengthy process for even just a trophy of their character in Smash. And who's the third party we are getting this June? Ryu, an international fighting game icon for decades. To borrow a timely phrase from the Avengers, he's "hopelessly, hilariously outgunned."

Want - 0%
Maybe I'd support him for MUGEN or Smash Flash, but not actual Smash.

Quote Prediction - 4.5%

Nominate Chorus Men/Kids x5
 
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Martingale

Smash Apprentice
Joined
Apr 2, 2015
Messages
127
Six Feet Under: Shovel Knight Chances:
Chance: 6%

Alright, let's dig into a Shovel Knight review. Let me lay down the foundations first. In a battle of icons, Shovel Knight is the topsoil here; some indie knight chap that swings a shovel around. While he might be deeply rooted in some people's minds thanks to Artsy Omni, it's difficult to find much dirt on him outside the US, no matter how much you trowel through. They're rushing Japanese localisation because of the Smash bid-- if the translations are bad the name may be dragged through the mud. And, if we must call a spade a spade, when looking through Shovel Knight playthroughs, I can't see much to fill the holes his moveset may have. And in the end, Shovel Knight in Smash might sell more PC copies than WiiU, which is a bit of a dirty business tactic. I don't dig the idea. Third party indies are rarely groundbreaking, and I don't see Shovel Knight shifting the earth with his fame. One of the obvious pitfalls is that this time next year, a hole load of the supporters will have forgotten him. Alas, I fear I'm digging a bit too deep here, so I'll fill you in quickly: not gonna happen. The idea's dead and buried. Voting Shovel Knight is essentially a soiled vote at this point.

Want: 1%
I want a knight, but I really want bedrock, not easily shifted soil. I hope some archaeological dig might give me Capcom's Sir Arthur, from Ghosts n Goblins. A rich moveset with a down-to-earth, historic hero, perfect for sowing the seeds of success in Smash.

Predictions: Quote: 15.44%
Lay down four Professor Layton votes, my good sir. And, let me go crazy for just one day and add one vote for Phantom R from the Rhythm Thief series (by which I mean that series that was supposed to be but the first game kinda bombed in sales so Sega never continued it). It'll be fun seeing him at the bottom of the table all the time.
 

Pureownege75

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Jun 20, 2014
Messages
229
Location
Gangplank Galleon
Shovel Knight
Chance: 3%
The news of a Japanese release improves his chances, but he's still a relative unknown. He may get a lot of votes here, but in Japan, even after his release I don't forsee him getting a ton of votes. As I said with Shantae, 3rd Parties need to be a big deal. Yes, Sakurai has contradicted himself several times, but I feel that this is a rule we can believe. I doubt Nintendo really sees the need to represent Indies. Similar to a lot of characters, I don't think he has a chance unless he landslides the entire vote. He'll do well, but not well enough most likely

Want: 15%
I still am not a huge fan of getting Indie characters in this game. That said if it had to be anyone, I'd want it to be him because Shovel Knight is awesome. But I don't want to be too much of a hypocrite so my score is still pretty low. Give him a few more games, and then ask me. He has the potential to be a huge deal, but with just one game, I'm not to keen on him getting in with just one game under his belt.

Quote Prediction: 3%

Nominations:
RH Character x3
Themed Stage DLC Packs x3
 

PrettyIvyPearls22

Smash Ace
Joined
Mar 18, 2015
Messages
781
Location
Houston, Texas
Shovel Knight

Chance: 5%
Just don't see it happening. He's got nothing going for him really except for popularity.....in the U.S. Which is why he's not happening. He has not had a global release yet, he's less than a year old, multi-platform and indie. Which is what every other Indie character out there is. He's nothing special. The only hope he got going is the Smash Ballot, and even that it's not going to be enough. I just don't think he has what it takes to win over Sakurai. The Japanese fanbase doesn't even know who he is. So that big hurt on his chances.

Want: 0%
Just wondering, do we really need an Indie character for Smash with other third parties that are more appropriate? Besides I want more first party vets back in and first party newcomers getting in over Shovel Knight.
 

smileMasky

Smash Ace
Joined
Aug 6, 2014
Messages
952
Location
parent's basment
NNID
TPPyro
3DS FC
1349-6667-1990
to tell you guys the truth even though I love for some indies to get in I am relived that the indies are getting low scores not to be a closed mind or anything I think adding indies in to an official AAA game kind of loses all that it stands for. It would become a over budget MUGEN game and I'd rather not have that.
 

FinalStarmen

Smash Ace
Joined
Aug 13, 2013
Messages
703
Location
Cave of the Past
Shovel Knight

Chance: 1%
Everything that needed to be said has already been said by Senselessbreak.

Now, in terms of whether or not a popular indie-developed character can actually enter the Smash fray, it entirely depends on whether or not Sakurai extends his third-party invitations towards them, as an exception to the general rule of legendary ground-breakers. I am open to the possibility, but extremely pessimistic. Maybe development will look at Shovel Knight's popularity in the ballot and consider the idea of inclusion, but more-than-likely they will overlook him altogether and move on to tally other votes. I don't see what will make Shovel Knight enough of a special case to warrant such a situation. If he can't, then who will?

Maybe [he's popular] in the indie community, but just because you are a star of a high school play, doesn't mean you are a star of Hollywood. Theres a big line to draw here.
This is a crucial statement for third-parties to follow. As long as the current pattern of guest all-stars maintains, Shovel Knight remains a grain of sand in a desert. That's not even taking into account other stumbling blocks that should prevent consideration, such as lack of Japanese popularity. Regardless, Shovel Knight may seem like the most likely choice for a playable indie character, but that isn't saying much.

"Anything can happen", but then again, such a statement can only reach for so far, given limitations of reasonability. For every 'Rayman trophy representation' or an 'under-the-radar Ryu as a (potentially) playable character' moments, there are many, many more instances of possibilities never becoming fully realized. Some are for the better (Goku, Reggie, Hatsune Miku) and some are for the worst (Banjo Kazooie, damn you).

Perhaps one day Sakurai will adjust his mindset to include an indie fighter as a special thanks to that specific community, but until that day arrives, there is no reason why I should change my mindset either. It's not impossible, but it is highly improbable.

Want: 0%
He doesn't interest me in the slightest, especially in comparison to Shantae, who I vastly prefer. Perhaps I should give his game a chance to play, though.

Quote Projection: 6%

Nominations:
Ridley x3
Bayonetta x2
 
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Bebe Mignon

Smash Ace
Joined
Jun 7, 2014
Messages
809
'Nother lazy post.

SHOVEL KNIGHT
Chance: 1%
Want: 0% (sorry, I have zero attachment to this character.)

QUOTE
Prediction: 1%

NOMINATION
Elma x5
 

Archimedes

The Rad Simisear
Joined
Sep 16, 2014
Messages
606
Location
Sacramento, CA
Switch FC
7772-6031-3529
Shovel Knight:
Chance: 5% (most reasons have already been stated. I feel like being lazy.)

Want: 100%
 
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