Well, I've been getting overly wordy, even for me. I can be excused for Wolf since I really like him and ended up having plenty to say, but we'll see if I can tone it down for Shovel Knight here. Probably since I have little to say about him really.
Here's my picture of the categories I'll use for assessing characters again again...
These points are for making a best estimate of their chances, although the weight of each category is still unknown at this time. Other unforeseen factors could keep the character from being added. I'll likely post this at the start of all my assessments.
Shovel Knight
Popularity
Shovel Knight is a new well loved game out on multiple platforms. It's a throwback to classic NES sidescrolling and is thusly popular for hitting a homerun in that regard. As a result, Shovel Knight is on a popularity high. Among "indie" third party characters, only Shantae has arguably competitive support. Among all third party characters in general, Shovel Knight has snuck into top 5 placings but is mainly a just inside top 10 most wanted material. Among all newcomers, he's got a bit more in the way. And in Japan and internationally in general, he's not even on the radar due to his games being so new and only really known stateside so far.
Importance
Shovel Knight is the protagonist of his own game. So, like so many third party characters, he's the most important piece in his game. I say "game" however, because he's only been on one game so far. He's a total newbie on the scene. Yes, his game has been very popular and is cleverly made in a classic style, but he's nowhere as "classic" as the style his game emulates. This is the category where Shovel Knight really suffers. Yes, he's gotten a good start and his future looks bright, but all he's had is a "start". Add to this the fact that he's shown up on Nintendo systems but is showing no signs that he's committed to them. Shantae at least spent many years loyal to Nintendo. Shovel Knights barely out of the gate and is looking for greener pastures. Nintendo and Shovel Knight may not have any lasting attachment to each other.
Uniqueness
Well, Shovel Knight is certainly unique. A knight that fights with a shovel. Wish I could say more but I'm still of the group that has Shovel Knight on their list of games to get around to playing. I've certainly been recommended the game enough times. I understand that he can dig obviously, but also attacks with the shovel, often from above. Although I don't know all his moves obviously, there's certainly room for potential. He could have a number of moves that behave like Villager's down smash perhaps. Maybe they could watch Mystery Men for references on "shovel arts", heh. Either way, Shovel Knight seems like he at least has easy potential for uniqueness.
Relevance
Shovel Knight is very relevant. In fact, it's this fact, coupled with the fact that his game is well liked and well received, that has boosted Shovel Knight into the conversation at all to begin with. If this DLC thing had happened two years after Shovel Knight's game came out and he'd already been ported over to Playstation and Xbox, then we may not be discussing him right now. But that's not how it is. Shovel Knight is still quite relevant and fresh, and still largely associated with Nintendo. We'll check on him and see where his stands in terms of relevancy and with Nintendo a couple years down the road.
Representation
I'll be brief here as I often repeat myself in this category, paraphrasing what I say in the "importance" category... particularly if the subject is third party characters that are the sole obvious representatives of their series or company. Shovel Knight is another one of those. He's the main protagonist and the obvious rep for his game. He's also the de facto mascot of Yacht Club since they've done nothing else and he's been a success. If you feel Shovel Knight or Yacht Club should be represented in Smash for their one game on Nintendo systems within the last year, then you're all for Shovel Knight obviously. For me though, I'm going to have to give both game and company a
"no". Their loyalty is unproven. Their series is one game old. They're indie third party. They're relatively hardly exposed yet. I just don't see that they have the justification of Shantae who's actually been around and loyal to Nintendo, as well as more exposed. All they and Shovel Knight have is current popularity and a good game.
Limitations
I'll repeat the last part of the "reps" section. First of all, and this is big, he's "indie" third party. Yes, Shantae is arguably "indie" too but she's got history and loyalty with Nintendo and competes well in popularity and relevancy with Shovel Knight... and even She had plenty of limitations already. Speaking of loyalty and history, Shovel Knight has none and that's why I brought it up. Few characters have more limitations than Shovel Knight.
Final Assessment
Chance: 2.2%
Far too many limitations. Even Banjo, who is locked up with Microsoft and I gave my lowest chance score to date to, actually is iconic enough to possibly climb out of that hole and break barriers. Shovel Knight is not even a year old and he's already jumping ship with Nintendo, and it's not like Shovel Knight was the big successful title of Banjo-Kazooie. Admittedly, Shovel Knight was quite successful for what it is. The fact that he's even in this conversation is a testament to that. But he's still the property of an "indie" third party developer with no commitments or history with Nintendo.. or history at all.
Want: 10%
Sadly for Shovel Knight, I just don't know much about him and I just don't see any justification. It's not like I don't see the appeal though and I could see him being unique. But at the end of the day he's not pushed me into throwing him more "want percent" than just this handful I'll grant him for being a cool concept with unique potential. Plus, if we were even to get an indie third party character for some crazy reason, I'd hope it would be Shantae.
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Time to assess how the thread will assess Quote of Cave Story. He doesn't have the popularity boost because of relevancy that Shovel Knight has, but I can see him having just as good a "chance" vote from the thread as was given to the knight for being more "established". After seeing Shovel Knight's much lower "want" than I anticipated I'm going to give Quote a relative lower "want" prediction in anticipation of maybe only slightly better results. Admittedly, I'm fairly clueless as to how the thread will feel about him, heh...
Predictions for Quote
Chance: 4.8%
Want: 13.7%
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Continuing to make sure that "Any NPC becomes playable" request happens before Ridley.
3 Points to *Concept: Any NPC becomes playable*
1 Points to Sceptile - (that one's for you Delzethin!)
1 Point to Bayonetta?