Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[MrMcNuts]

Isabella

Chance: 5%

Villager does a fine job repping animal crossing and it's one of those series that only needs 1 rep in a game like smash.

Want: 2%

I'm sorry but she's definitely one of those characters that if they were to put her in, they'd be scrapping the bottom of the barrel for newcomers.

 

[Llort A. Ton]

Woof

Chance- 50%
This character has never been on my radar until I went back into Smash speculation and saw quite a large fan base for her. It makes sense, shes the mascot of Animal Crossing and 'represents' the success of the modern era of Animal crossing. I think others have already explained it well.

Want- 1%
Dont like Animal Crossing. I wouldnt be up in arms is she got in though.

Me-Caillou- 12.06%

Thwomp X 5

 

[Troykv]

Okay, so it's Isabelle time already eh? I need to put the draft of the next post after I finish this.

Isabelle

Chance: 40%

She has many things in her favor, but also some other things against her.

In one hand she is extremely popular, the cute little puppy become one of the rising stars of Nintendo on this decade, she even ended up overshadowing Tom Nook, who was previously see as the franchise's icon alongside the Villager himself.

In fact, her popularity has gone to a point where she already considered a Nintendo Icon, and had appeared several times outside of her main series (that includes of course, appearing alongside the Villager themself in Mario Kart 8)

She is of course very cute and appealing for even people that doesn't know about her.

And looks like there are many stuff she would work without ended up being a Villager clone.

In the other hand.... I wonder how exactly Sakurai views Isabelle as a playable character; she isn't exactly a fighting person (in fact, pretty much the opposite)... Maybe Nintendo will try to push her in that case? Who knows.

Want: 50%

Well, she is cute, and I wouldn't be surprised if she ended up appearing in Smash Switch.

______________________________________

Prediction time! (It's almost the day, this is so exciting!)

Micaiah: 6.9%

Nominations:

KOS-MOS x5

 

[ProfPeanut]

Geez, make one reference and suddenly people get on your case.


Isabelle

Chance: 70%
Animal Crossing is big enough to warrant another newcomer, and no one's a clearer choice for the spot than Isabelle. Which is impressive, given that she isn't even half as old as other classic Animal Crossing choices, like Tom Nook or K.K. Slider!

Her main hurdle is her moveset potential, which is there, but relatively tricky to get right. But there are a lot worse cases out there, and Animal Crossing has enough ideas for her to draw from. Balancing her pacifism with Smash's engine is another task, but hey, worked for Peach.

Want: 40%
Not a priority of mine, but I think she'd certainly earn any inclusion she got, if only for all the times she bailed my clueless rear out of not knowing how to mayor. Still, the list of other folks who ought to get in first is long, and it's not exactly a favor for her to make her fight in a fighting game.


Prediction:
Micaiah: 7%

Nominations:
Papyrus (Undertale) x5

 

[BluePikmin11]

Haha, I don't think this is going to be another "exciting" day for BluePikmin.

If there is not much discussion, there is always Plan B:

He is a tier above Isabelle in terms of speculation skepticism.

 

[Opossum]

For those saying she lacks potential, being a klutzy terraformer through the use of ordinances and public works projects is both incredibly unique and absolutely fitting to her role in New Leaf. The town planning aspect of Animal Crossing is not represented at all through Villager beyond planting a tree and his Final Smash, and a character that could build constructs to affect the stage itself is something Smash doesn't have yet.

Moveset potential isn't Isabelle's problem, if anything.

 

[KingofPhantoms]

Isabelle Chance: 75%

Yeah, she's a somewhat newer character, but she's pretty much another icon of the Animal Crossing series at this point, even more than Tom Nook, I'd argue. Along with that I definitely think Animal Crossing has more to pull from as far as movesets are concerned, and she's got quite a fan following, so no issues there either, really. If nothing else, I'm sure she's been on Sakurai mind at some point. She's been an assist trophy already, so no doubt about that; question now is if he'll think the character can do enough to warrant being playable. Will she make the jump from Assist Trophy to Playable Fighter? Personally, I think it's more likely to happen than not. Of all possible newcomers that come to mind, Isabelle's got better odds than many others.

Want: 85%

One of my most wanted newcomers. I love Animal Crossing and Isabelle's a great and absolutely adorable character who I'd happily welcome into the Smash roster.

Nominations: Tetra x5

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

Isabelle

Chance: 15%

She may be one of Animal Crossing's big faces but relevancy isn't everything. You have to be unique and have something to you that makes you stand out.

I have to ask... what would she be able to do that the Villager wouldn't be able to? Would they really just dump every AC related thing the Villager already doesn't use into her moveset? Sounds very stretching and forced to me.

Want: 10%

Nothing against her but I think she's unnecessary and would feel like padding. Am fine with her Assist throphy role.

Predictions for Ihavenoideawho: 5.88%

Nominations: Canon DK/Bowser/Diddy voices x5

 

[Opossum]

.

I have to ask... what would she be able to do that the Villager wouldn't be able to? Would they really just dump every AC related thing the Villager already doesn't use into her moveset? Sounds very stretching and forced to me.

Answered that above.

For those saying she lacks potential, being a klutzy terraformer through the use of ordinances and public works projects is both incredibly unique and absolutely fitting to her role in New Leaf. The town planning aspect of Animal Crossing is not represented at all through Villager beyond planting a tree and his Final Smash, and a character that could build constructs to affect the stage itself is something Smash doesn't have yet.

Moveset potential isn't Isabelle's problem, if anything.

 

[BluePikmin11]

When I regularly mention AC newcomers and their potential in Smash speculation discussion, it does not come out as forced for me, but rather, I just easily point out what these characters do in their games and use that as inspiration for a potential moveset. I get that it might be hard to see what they offer with what Villager covers in AC, but I just see the characters and I am filled with ideas on how they could work as fighters based on their characterization in Animal Crossing.

 

[ShinyRegice]

Isabelle chances: abstain
She's basically the new face of the Animal Crossing series by now, but with her Assist Trophy in Smash 4 being completely non-offensive, maybe she is either not suited for fighting or her potential/theming overlaps too much with Villager. If neither of these two scenarios then I could imagine her fighting with a moveset that feels more, hum, "administrative" if you see what I mean.

Isabelle want: abstain
I don't really have an opinion on her, she'd make sense as a Nintendo All-Star but I have trouble seeing her fighting. That doesn't necessarily mean she's not suited for Smash because I'm okay with being wrong about it.

Micaiah prediction: 3.07%

Nominating:
Concept: veteran character artworks recycled from Smash 3DS/Wii U x4
Playable newcomer: Mimikyu x1

 

[Wyoming]

Isabelle:

Chance - 65%
It has already been mentioned - she is highly popular, marketed, promoted and recognizable. She ticks the boxes for a newcomer in terms of relevancy and popularity.

Move set potential exists. Elements from the series not yet used such as construction/planning (her main feature), as well as other things like fishing and mining. There is material to work with that suits her character.

The representation of her character will be key and what possibly is her biggest obstacle. Her assist trophy doesn't attack anyone. It heals her summoner. She is a helping hand, an aide, not a fighter or a character with a violent streak. One way around it is to make her klutz, but while some moves it is easy to see how she could "accidentally" hit someone, others most notably the aerials, jab, and tilts not so much. They can always make her fight for the sake of the game, but I am not certain Sakurai would see her like that. And making a character not truly want to hit someone is unique but seems a little awkward too, you know?

There is also the factor that she will get hit physically. Not sure if Nintendo want that to happen to her but that is my thought process.

Want - 40%
Deserving indeed but rather have other characters in first.

Micaiah: 8.1%

Nominate Black Shadow x5

 

[NeonBurrito]

Isabelle

Chance - 65%

If there's a new Animal Crossing character, it'll be her without a doubt. She's extremely popular, probably THE most popular Animal Crossing character at this point, and certainly has relevancy on her side, appearing with prominent roles in New Leaf, Happy Home Designer, and Pocket Camp.

The only thing holding her back is how she is not a fan of fighting. Like, even with traditional non-fighting characters like Villager, Pac-Man, and Wii Fit Trainer, at least they're neutral on the subject. Isabelle just straight up hates it. However, there's definitely work arounds for this, and Opossum has a moveset that does a really good job of having her be a fighter, without being a fighter.

Animal Crossing is definitely a series that could easily make use a new character, considering how popular, high-grossing, and relevant it is. However, I feel like it really just comes down to how passive of a fighter is Sakurai and friends willing to make.

Want - 0%

No. No. No. Big no. Absolutely not.

I'm a huge fan of Animal Crossing and I honestly have nothing against Isabelle, but if Animal Crossing is getting a new character, I'd much rather have it be the absolute lad, Tom Nook. If the idea of a loan shark tanooki swinging money bags around does not sound like the best idea for a fighter, then you are incorrect.

Nominations:
Black Shadow x5

 

[Megaban]

ISABELLE
Chance -32%
Don't let that number fool you. If I give something more than 30%. I call it realistic. She is becoming something of a face in AC franchise. Although. I think a peaceful franchise like AC will probably stay at 1 character that means she might fight for plae with Villager. Who automatically is more likely for a fact he was already playable. And it might be hard to make 2 "creative movesets" of this franchise without hurting one of them imo. Might be a weird perspective, but I feel like the "niche" of cool moveset would diminish when divided by 2.

Want -25%
Now, no offense here. In fact, 2 things only let that one so low. One of them is my natural hatred to dogs. But I have personal reasons to that I won't get into deeper. And 2nd is... I don't think personally AC needs more than 1. I feel like the premise of the franchise is just done better by ONE character in that case. And I'd prefer Villager return. Those are peaceful games by nature, I think sending TWO characters like that is a little too much lol. But if she DID get in, I'd live with it.

Prediction: Micaiah -5%

Nominations: Kamek x3, Excitebike x2.

 

[MasterOfKnees]

Isabelle:

Chance: 60%

Want: 40%

 

[CaptainAmerica]

Assistant Mayor Bellweather

Chance: 30%
Want: 10%

Definitely been played up a lot recently, and sh'es now the most recognizable face of Animal Crossing. No question she's important.

That said, Animal Crossing still fits oddly into Smash as a fighting game.

I could see her remaining as an assist or even becoming a new Villager alt, but AC doesn't really need a new playable representative. After all, half of the villager moveset is original anyway.

Prediction for Micah: 4.3%
Nom: Mewtwo x5

 

[Capybara Gaming]

Isabelle
Chance: 30% - Seeing as she is kind of the face of the franchise, I can definitely see her joining in with the Villager.
Want: 0% - Please don't make me beat this adorable pupper up

Prediction: Micaiah
Chance: 7.19%
Want: 26.91%

Nominations:
Sakura Shinguji x5

 

[Al-kīmiyā']

Isabelle want: 0%

High sales alone shouldn't get characters in Smash. Isabelle's moveset would probably be incredibly dull. It's hard enough finding interesting moves from Animal Crossing to give to Villager. Just make Isabelle an alternate costume.

Nominations:

Decloned Ganondorf x5

 

[Quetzal77]

Isabelle
Chance: 20%
I think she's the most likely AC newcomer, but I don't really think AC will get more characters. Maybe as DLC.

Want: 10%
She's cute and I think she has moveset potential. Not too familiar with Animal Crossing but I like the idea of Tom Nook or KK Slider over her.

Micaiah: 5.37%
Nominations: Pyra/Mythra (without Rex) x2, Impa x3

 

[Kirby Dragons]

Chance: 95%

Super popular in Japan and from one of Nintendo's more important series.

Want: 45%

Having another Villager-style moveset would be fun.

Nominations: Urban Champion x5

 

[VexTheHex]

Isabelle
Chance - 50%
Popular with quite a bit of attention. Could have a interesting move set. But Sakurai may stay away from the series after struggling to piece Villager together.
Want - 50%
No personal connection to the character. She is cute though.

Nominations 5x Greninja

 

[slambros]

Isabelle

Chance: 25%
Her assist trophy status suits her very well, and I think the developers will likely think the same. However, her popularity is undeniable.

Want: 25%
I would rather have her as an assist trophy. That being said, I appreciate the character.

 

[Fenriraga]

All of you are a bunch of dirty Puppy Punchers for wanting this little angel in.

Chance: 30%
She's the most likely Animal Crossing newcomer for sure, but I just dunno if her chances are are guarenteed as some may think. I feel like her role as an Assist Trophy is a good fit for a character like her. But her popularity can't be ignored.

Want: 40%
DIRTY. PUPPY. PUNCHERS.
Nah she'd be cool to have. Not really high on my priorities list though.

 

[BandanaWaddleDee]

Isabelle
Chance: 50%
Popular character from a big franchise.
Want: 25%
I'd prefer Tom Nook.

Micaiaiaiah Prediction: 5.97%

Nominations
Decloned Dark Pit x5

 

[BluePikmin11]

I imagine when Nintendo recommends Sakurai Isabelle, the questions of her fitting better as an AT role would not come first. I feel that Sakurai will think about gameplay and moveset potential first before considering those questions, and her characterization and role in AC games would provide enough potential to make her standout to Sakurai. I feel it is less likely that Sakurai will think of appropriate roles, moreso about gameplay.

 

[NintenRob]

Isabelle
Chance 55%
She's become quite prominent since her introduction, I could definitely see it happening
Want 75%
I use to dislike her but she's grown on me

Prediction 3%

Nominate Parabo and Satebo x5

 

[TheSqushiestManatee]

Isabelle

Chance: abstain

Want: 0%

Nominations: Wonder Red x5

 

[PeridotGX]

Is a Bell

Chance - 75%. Tied with Dee as the most likely newcomer, IMO.

Want: 50%

Indifferent

Nominations: Kamex x5

 

[TheFritzle]

Isabelle Chance:
45%
Animal Crossing is definitely big enough to get a second character, but there really aren't any other characters that would work. Isabelle would be the most likely choice for a second AC rep, as she is by far the most popular character. I don't think she has much moveset potential, and I feel that Sakurai would really have to reach to make her a proper character. Her popularity is one thing, but I just can't see her in a fighting game, but you never know.

Isabelle Want:
0%
I don't really like her at all, nor do I think she would translate very well in Smash.

Micaiah Prediction:
4.91%

Nominations:
Sylux x5

 

[Sid-cada]

Isabelle

Chance - 37.5% - A decent shot, but no where near guaranteed. She's a big name, for sure, but I'm not convinced that she screams "make me playable."

People have been claiming using projects as a teraforming set, but the question becomes a question of "why teraform?"

Villager's tree can be both an offensive tool ether when grown or chopped down. Even then, though, most prefer to use projectile play and direct fighting over trying to use tree set-ups. Typically, most villagers will end up using the tree only about twice in a single match, and only then rarely does it pay off.

So what benefit will Isabelle get when she makes whatever? Because right now I only see the buildings being a wall, which isn't good if they go crazy with it. Walls, as we know, are terrible to fight against competitive play, and if used exclusively as walls there is a very delicate balance to make it work. Too much health and the walls can promote too much keep away to the point that you don't interact much with the opponent, too weak and the setup probably won't be worth it. Even then, Smash favors mobility heavily. Most characters will end up simply rushing her down before she even has a chance to place a single brick, and those that aren't are typically heavyweights who will tear through buildings like a Kaiju. Factoring in a fun factor on how it feels to fight against, and I'm not certain teraformers have much place in Smash.


So if you take that away, what you have left is essentially scraps from Villager, and that's not exactly riving. Sure "clumzy acidents" are a cute aesthetic, but that doesn't translate well into forming a way to play.


Want - 30% - See above. I'm not certain if putting her in is a good idea for Smash. Her play style would end up being more keep-away than Duck Hunt, and they already get some flack for that.


Prediction

Micaiah - 3.42% - Less likely with every year.


Nominations

Masked Dedede Final Smash X5

 

[Kitty-chan]

Isabelle

Chance: 65%
I nyactually thought her chances were really low, but I'm pretty happy to see that I was wrong nya. I can't add anything that hasn't been said nyalready. ... I don't think the "she's a pacifist" argument really works well anymore when she can blow up opponents in MK8D with Bob-ombs nyaa~

Want: 100%
This is probably the only 100% I'm gonya give to any nyucomer character in want nya (I would've given K. Rool 100% if I hadn't tragically come back to this site a damn day late nya). I like AC in general, but somehow playing as her in MK8D really lit some sparks in my head and I came to really like her nya. She's straight up freaking nyadorable, has great potential, and sorry to all nyu "don't hurt her!" fans, but I personally would love to bully her and see all of her sad/hurt faces nya! Her sad expression is cute too nya!! Don't nyu dare deny it nya!!

Nyominations
Mimikyu: x5

 

[MasterWarlord]

Chance 10%: Can't rule her out, but I disagree on pacifists having much moveset potential. Tom Nook has much more excuse to use props given he owns the store, so would be the more obvious choice for a moveset. Tom Nook is also more important to the series and should've been in over Villager anyway if you ask me. Isabelle in Smash would just be an OC.

Want 0%: Tom Nook being denied twice is pretty gosh darn bad, and I don't want a moveset tackier than Villager pocketing giant lasers and energy balls of death because of an animation where he...picks junk up off the floor. What a basis.

Nominate Cranky Kong x5

 

[Munomario777]

Isabelle

Chance: 10%. She's a weird choice for a fighter, but her popularity and recent prominence mean that there's any chance. My chance and want writeups are actually pretty intertwined this time, so some of my want explanations apply to chance as well.

Want: 0.5%. My rating scale hasn't ever been very well-defined, but 1% is generally my "indifferent" rating, and Isabelle does manage to go below that by one-half the possible margin. Nothing against the character, she just seems like she's super lacking in actual, appealing moveset potential / fighting game viability. There are two main ideas I see tossed around a lot, so I'll tackle each one individually:

The first one is the whole construct angle, with her building town projects and whatnot to aid in battle. This seems like it'd be hard to make into a cohesive playstyle honestly. One game that does focus a lot on constructs like this is Rivals of Aether, but the "theming" is what makes it work there. For example, one of the characters can place a plant on the stage that bites nearby opponents, which makes sense since it's some sort of venus flytrap type thing. In general, the characters are all "elemental monsters," so they can kind of manipulate their own element to attack. If you're just creating a building or a park bench or what have you, though, then there's not really a direct way to use it in combat like that, so it'd probably just end up being a wall / platform... which sounds like it'd either get in the way or not be very useful depending on how it's balanced. Not to mention having several Isabelles in a match...!

Then there's the matter of her being a pacifist and whatnot... which is a pretty glaring flaw in a fighting game, I reckon. It's suggested a lot that she could have "accidental" attacks... but that just seems really off to me. If the aesthetic is meant to be that she's just doing random stuff with no intent of harm and the foe "happens" to get in the way, then that paints her as pretty stupid if she can't see that she's repeatedly, directly causing the harm of someone. Or is she really out for blood, but disguising her intentions by appearing innocent? Maybe she's just hallucinating it all, like the Pyro from TF2. It's a really, REALLY big disconnect between the intentions of the player and of the character. If you play as Mario in Smash, both you and Mario have the goal of killing the opponent. If you play as an "accidental moveset"-based Isabelle, then it doesn't line up like with Mario, so Isabelle's actions don't make any sense. It's really forced.

Personally, I might not think it particularly egregious to have her punch and kick and whatnot, but I also don't know the character enough to make that call. (I've never played the games myself.) And Sakurai is dead-set on representing characters accurately to their source material. To this end, he gave Mega Man the series's first ever projectile Jab (and the first move that's identical across Jab, Forward Tilt, and Neutral Air), for example. He even included all of Street Fighter's command inputs for Ryu! All of that tells me that he wouldn't want to have someone who "isn't a fighter" beating people up.

Speaking of, here's a relevant quote!

From this, I was asked the following questions from many people. “I understand Megaman, but why were Villager and Wii Fit Trainer chosen?” They’re clearly not characters suited for battle. In fact, there was even a point where in the planning stages of the previous game, “Super Smash Bros. Brawl,” I removed the Villager, the protagonist of Animal Crossing, from consideration because he wasn’t suited for battle. To be blunt, if I think I can do it then I can envision a concrete embodiment of the character, but if I cannot do that the character cannot be made. This is a big factor. Of course getting permission and understanding from the original creators is necessary, but whether the image of the character in my head is dancing powerfully, or not. This is of the utmost importance. On the contrary, no matter how suited a character may be to fighting, if I cannot meaningfully distinguish them from other characters, or create fun unique characteristics of the characters, then that’s the end for them. I think there are probably many who have looked at the trailers on the official website or pictures and realized that both Villager and Wii Fit Trainer were not selected solely because they can show off their eccentricity. They each have their own individual fighting styles and strategies, and make the game more fun.

https://sourcegaming.info/2015/07/09/megaman-villager-wiifit/ (emphasis mine, a misplaced quote mark removed)

Sakurai seems to have changed his mind on whether or not Villager is "suited for battle." He's different from Isabelle, though, since she's the only one with a disposition against fighting as far as I'm aware. With Villager, it was more a matter of how he should fight, not if he should fight. His moveset isn't "accidental" or anything – he punches, slingshots, and umbrella-smacks his foes all with an eternal grin on his face. Villager himself, then, doesn't tell us whether or not Sakurai would find Isabelle "suited for battle" in the context of her pacifism. What it DOES tell us is that, if Sakurai does find a character unfit for battle (like Isabelle, since Sakurai does care a lot about a character's personality), he can't add them into the game, like Villager during Brawl's planning phase.

When I say Isabelle doesn't have any moveset potential, I don't mean that you absolutely couldn't put her into the game. You can put anyone into the game if you try hard enough. I mean that Isabelle doesn't have the potential to be done well, in a way that represents her character while also being a Good Fighting Game Moveset and not feeling totally forced.

If a character, by personality, isn't a fighter, then maybe they shouldn't be in a fighter, is my two cents.



As an aside, Isabelle is really cute ^^. I'd love to see her return as an assist, or maybe even a stage element? I don't think she's suited for a playable role, though, based on what others in this thread have been saying about her pacifism and whatnot.





Predictions

Fire Emblem newcomer whose name starts with the letter M: 4%. I don't know who he is, so I can't say I'm inclined to rate him very highly here.



Nominations: Snip + Clip x5

 

[Wyoming]

Spoiler: Nominations post Geno, pre-Isabelle

Arle Nadja (Puyo Puyo) x268
Veteran: Lucas x249
Veteran: Mewtwo x222
Concept: veteran character artworks recycled from Smash 3DS/Wii U x219
Mike Jones (StarTropics) x213
Veteran: Greninja x211
Agumon x205

Over 200:

Impa x204
Black Shadow x202
Ganon x201


199-150

Concept: Marth and Roy given their English VAs x180
Urban Champion x175
Lycanroc x166
Bomberman x165
Qbby (BoxBoy!) x163
Dark Samus x159
Kamek x157
Travis Touchdown x154
Funky Kong x154
Spyro x154
Music: Final Destination (Ver. 2) x150

149-100

Sans (Undertale) x148
Concept: Decloned Dark Pit x147
Pyra/Mythra (without Rex) x135
Mipha x132
Masked Link x131
Simon Belmont x130
Azura (Fire Emblem) x130
Lip (Panel de Pon) x127
Snip & Clip (Snipperclips) x125
Concept: Octopath Traveller Character x115
Sylux x115
Neku Sakuraba (The World Ends with You) x110
Gengar x110
Concept: Decloned Ganondorf x108
Linkle x105
Octoling x105
Concept: Skyrim representation x105
Tsubasa Oribe (Tokyo Mirage Sessions ♯FE) x100

99-75

Parabo and Satebo x99
Wonder Red (The Wonderful 101) x98
Fawful (Mario & Luigi) x96
Ryu Hayabusa x95
Cranky Kong x95
Excitebiker x94
Thwomp x93
Concept: Ken Masters alt Costume for Ryu x86
2B (Nier: Automata) x78
Tetra (The Legend of Zelda) x75

74-50

Papyrus x73
Fjorm (Fire Emblem) x72
Katrielle Layton x72
Klonoa x70
KOS-MOS x70
Labo related character x68
Concept: Fire Emblem Heroes Summoner x65
Mimikyu x64
Concept: Fire Emblem Spear User x60
Zeraora (Pokémon) x58
Veronica (Fire Emblem) x58
Sakura Shinguji x58
Susie (Kirby) x53
Sable Prince x53
Veteran: Roy x51
Lara Croft x50
Slippy Toad x50

49-30:

Lloyd Irving x47
Veteran: Dr. Mario x47
Barbara The Bat x46
Concept: Canon Bowser/DK/Diddy voice clips x44
Steve (Minecraft) x42
Django (Boktai) x40
Concept: Masked Dedede Final Smash x40
Concept: Wars character x39
Starfy x39
Ray (Custom Robo) x38
Tom Nook x38
Gooey (Kirby) x37
Pokemon Trainer (Gen 2) x37
Concept: Mother Newcomer x35
Callie and Marie (Splatoon) x35
Tingle x35
Nia and Dromarch (Xenoblade) x34
Doshin the Giant x32
Veteran: Bayonetta x32
Balloon Fighter x32
Dragonite x32
Rick/Coo/Kine (Kirby) x31
Arcade Bunny x31
Primarina x30
Tails x30
Snorlax x29
Leo (FE Fates) x28
Takumi (Fire Emblem) x28
Viridi x28
Concept: Indie Character x28
9-Volt x28
Hector (Fire Emblem) x 26
Medusa (Kid Icarus) x 26
Returning game mode: Smash Run x26
Ghirahim x26
Sophitia (Soulcalibur) x25
Double Day: Sheriff / Diskun x25
Prince Fluff (Kirby) x25
Tiki (Fire Emblem) x25
Concept: Style Savvy Character x25
Endou Mamoru x25
Toon Zelda x25
Stage: New Donk City x25

New entries (post-Purge, 24 and less):

Concept: Battlefield Stages x10
Torra & Poppi x10
Slime (Dragon Quest) x10
Mach Rider x5
Concept: Female Announcer x5
Alex Kidd x5
Concept: No Mega Evolutions x2

Changes:

Impa, Black Shadow, and Ganon break 200 noms and are on Mike Jones, Greninja and Agumon's tails. Gonna be a fun race.
Spyro breaks 150 noms
Decloned Ganondorf smashes through 100 noms
Sable Prince and Slippy break 50 noms
"New" additions: Female Announcer and Alex Kidd (both x5)

 

[Cycrum]

Isabelle

Chance: 55%
Been marketed quite heavily within and outside the Animal Crossing series, becoming perhaps the mascot of the series only a few years after her debut in New Leaf. However, due to the fact that she does not like confrontation, I could see it being very difficult for Sakurai to envision a moveset for her and, if he fails to do that, then her chances fall immensely.

Want: Abstain
Yet again, a character from a series of games I have yet to play.

Predictions:
Micaiah: 5.5%

Nominations:
Steve (Minecraft) x4
Lara Croft x1

 

[Depressed Gengar]

Isabelle Chance: 35%

Want: 0%

Micaiah Prediction: 5%

Nominations: Gengar X5

 

[skylanders fan]

Isabelle
Chance 5%
Just becuase a series is popular dosn't mean that they need more than one rep. Isabelle can work as a alt costume for Villager I mena they had to pull stuff not even in animal crossing for him so to have another rep witha unique moveset would be hard. Not to mention originally Sakurai had issues with villager in brawl so I find it hard for him to change so much that he feels Animal Crossing would need a new rep

Want 1%
don't care for her and while she is popular more characters would need to be in before her

michicai 3%
noms
3x mewtwo
2x squritle

 

[GoodGrief741]

Isabelle
Chance:67%
Animal Crossing is getting another rep eventually and she’s got the popularity and Nintendo’s push to back her, her sole opponent is Tom Nook.

Want: 53%

Micaiah prediction: 7%

Nominations
QbbyX5

 

[Tailisu10]

Chance 85%: Popular, importance, has moveset potential and currently a major Nintendo character from a popular franchise, she's got it all. She's also made several crossover appearances; notably, she's already in smash as an assist trophy and made her first playable appearance in the Mario Kart 8 DLC. She's a Nintendo guest character alongside the Villager, Link, Inkling and R.O.B from Mario Kart DS, All who are playable/will be playable in Smash also.

What detracts her chances are the fact Sakurai may find too peaceful than even the villager. Personally I don't think it's that big of a deal since Mario Kart 8 features the same kind of slapstick seen in Smash and while it's not really "her", in Monster 4 Ultimate, she's featured as a costume for the Felynes it makes them look and sound exactly like her.

Want 100%: She's my most wanted newcomer, I love her in New Leaf and I'm happy of her playability and that she's blew up in popularity and importance.

For those that worry that you'll hurt this little doggo, don't worry, she's hurt you instead.

 

[Ghirahilda]

Isabelle

Chance: 80% (4 in 5)
She is SO POPULAR! She is what we can call a Nintendo ALL STAR
Want: 100%
I love her soo much

Nomination: Octopath traveller character x5