Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[Quetzal77]

Micaiah
Chance: 1%
Her only chance is a Tellius remaster being announced and released within Smash Switch's DLC lifetime. While I do see that being a possibility, it still wouldn't guarantee her getting added, but I think she surprised a lot of FE fans by ranking quite highly in both Heroes polls. She has a very tiny chance at the moment.

Want: 100%
I love Micaiah as a character and I think she would fit in great in Smash and with the other FE reps. She stands out in appearance from the others, and she would be the first pure mage among them. I wanna drop Thani bombs on everyone!

Her moveset would be light magic, with the aforementioned Thani bomb being her signature spell. She also uses long range magic, status inducing staves (like putting enemies to sleep), she has connections to ancient magic, and could also use Yune her bird for some of her standard attacks (and her final Smash: those who've played RD can imagine what I'm talking about).

Lana: 15.48%
Nominations: Pyra/Mythra (without Rex) x3, Neku x2

 

[Runic_SSB]

Micaiah

Chance: 0%
If we're getting another FE rep (which we aren't), it's gonna be someone from the new game.

Want: 0%
N
O

M
O
R
E

F
I
R
E

E
M
B
L
E
M
S

Lana prediction: 10%

Nominations:
Travis Touchdown x3
Funky Kong x2

 

[Depressed Gengar]

Micaiah Chance: 0%
Sakurai isn't going to look back in time for someone like Micaiah. For someone like Lyn, who's at least among the most popular characters in the series? Sure, even if that one is a DLC only possibility, and still an unlikely one. Micaiah? Nah.

Want: 5%
A strictly magic only character actually sounds cool, but there's better candidates for numerous reasons. And speaking of better candidates...

Lana Prediction: 10%

Nominations: Gengar X5

 

[AlphaSSB]

Micaiah

Chance: 1% - There's plenty of other Fire Emblem characters with a better chance than her.

Want: 0% - No interest in her, nor do I have interest in adding more Fire Emblem characters.

Nominations: Slippy Toad x5

 

[NeonBurrito]

Miccy

Chance - 0%

Her time has passed. She isn't relevant in her series, doesn't have extreme amounts of popularity to her name, and her game is already represented by a character already in Smash (Ike).

Want - 35%

I'm honestly not that much of a fan of Micaiah's character, even though I do like Radiant Dawn a good amount. (At least she's better than the Gary Stu Ike is in RD) I certainly think she would have an extremely unique moveset, simply due to the fact that she is 100% Magic, unlike any other FE lord, but I would still rather have other Fire Emblem characters over her.

Nominations:
Slippy Toad x5

 

[-crump-]

Micaiah
Chance: 1%
While I respect the dedication, I think Micaiah is about the last thing from Sakurai’s mind. For one thing, it’s no secret that FE got a LOT of characters last time, and while that’s not the final nail in the coffin, it is a nail nonetheless. For another, Micaiah is not a recent lord. She doesn’t have the winds of relevance in her sails, which is possibly the biggest advantage an FE character could have.

Lastly, while Micaiah certainly has an interesting niche as a magic-wielding lord... She has competiton from a more recent lord, also a magic wielder: Celica, who is a.) more relevant, b.) more popular (thanks SoV), and c.) has more to go off of for a moveset.

Want: 5%
Micaiah is alright, but I’m a fan of Celica and I’d much rather see her get in.

noms:
Tingle x5

 

[Arcanir]

Micaiah

Chance: 2%
She's in a very tough position. Her game has passed, she's not highly promoted like Lucina, and while a popular character in her own right, she doesn't have the extremely high popularity of characters like Lyn to keep her in the eyes of the developers despite her age. Her moveset potential is interesting, but in a series that looks through many characters to recruit (and said characters may bring their own unique traits), it's not enough to sell herself relative to the other choices.

Want: 35%
A Light Mage character would be cool and I think Micaiah would be a good character to sell it, but there are other FE characters I'd prefer over her.

Nominations: Lycanroc x5

 

[MasterOfKnees]

Micaiah:

Chance: 1% - The chance that Sakurai will go back and fetch a Fire Emblem character who isn't relevant is very low as is, but if he were to do it you'd expect it to be someone really popular, like Lyn. If Micaiah was extremely popular within the FE or Smash community she'd always have had a decent chance, but she's only mildly popular within the former fanbase and pretty much never talked about within the latter (although I hear she's at the very least brought up in Japan).

Want: 50% - Although its a series I like to play from time to time I'm usually not big on the idea of a FE newcomer, there are very few candidates I think that would add anything significant to Smash at this point, and I'm not a fan of how some series are simply guaranteed a newcomer just for marketing purposes. Micaiah just about passes the test though, but only because I'm very biased in favor of the Tellius games as it's by far the best the FE series has ever been imo, and of course Micaiah plays her part in that. An all Light Magic user would also be very interesting, I'm not sure there are any other notable Nintendo characters who would be able to bring a similar set of powers into Smash, so she also gets a bonus for uniqueness. It's hard for me to actively vouch for her as to me she's just one of several good characters from the Tellius games, plus she's incredibly unlikely, but I'd e happy enough to see her get in.

Nominations:
Greninja x5

 

[Wyoming]

Micaiah:

Chance - 1%
Not a character IS are pushing. Lacks relevance for a game series that tends to add the recent character to the Smash. The boat has sailed...

Want - 15%
Not at all interested in another Fire Emblem addition but would at least bring over an unique take on a move set.

Lana: 13.6%
Nominate Black Shadow x5

 

[Megaban]

MICAIAH
Chance -0%
Let's face it, unless you're a recent antagonist, VERY popular character or very influential one, you're not getting in from Fire Emblem. Micaiah is basically guaranteed not to happen because she's neither of those.

Want -20%
I'd totally prefer someone else if FE DOES get a new slot. e do have a mage FE character already, I'd prefer repping not yet introduced weapons.

Nominations: Kamek x3, Excitebike x2

Predction: Lana -12%

 

[Mighty Moose]

Micaiah

Chance: 5%
Even putting aside the debate over whether we need more FE characters (we don't), there's got to be several ahead of this one in the queue at this point.

Want: 0%
NO. MORE. FIRE. EMBLEM. CHARACTERS.

Nominating Ganon x5

 

[MrElectroG64]

Micaiah

Chances: 1%
Her chances against a more recent FE character are pretty slim.

Want: 0%
again, I'm not really a fan of the series, and my knowledge of this character is next to none, even compared to more known characters.


Nominations: Fawful x5

 

[Llort A. Ton]

Micaiah

Chance- 1%
An older, less promenint character from a series that already has fierce competition. Unless she miraculously did wonders on the ballot, its not happening.

Want- 0%
No thanks.

Lana- 20.14%

Thwomp X 5

 

[Deleted member]

Yay, the poop flinging is back in action.

Chance: 2%
Old Fire Emblem character. The only reason I'm not giving her a 0% is because

1. Sakurai is very unpredictable
2. IS seems less strict with the Fire Emblem newcomers chosen for Smash than TPCi

Want: 30%
I've yet to play any Pre-Awakening Fire Emblem game, but the idea of a pure mage character sounds interesting.
And no, I'm not opposed to another Fire Emblem rep because I think "reps" are an annoying fan restriction that shouldn't prevent cool characters from getting in and I thank Sakurai for not caring about them. Still, I can only rate her so high because I'm so unfamiliar with her.

Susie x5

 

[jamesster445]

Michaiah

Chance- 10%
Want- 50%

Not my first choice for a new FE character and probably not the same for the devs.

Nominations- Tora and Poppi x5

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

Now I know the schedule for the next couple of days is already set but could we perhaps rate both Blue Bowser and Tethu on the same day, so we don't have to waste a whole day only talking about a character who has absolutely no chance and basically got nominated as a joke? We also haven't had a double day in a while, either.

 

[wildvine47]

Micaiah

Chance: 1% - Like I said yesterday, she's from a bygone era of Fire Emblem that Ike already represents, and is from probably THE most competitive and overpacked franchise in Smash. She's not happening, and I feel confident in saying that.

Want: 30% - I'm good on Fire Emblem characters, and she'd overlap a lot with Robin. I used to support her back in the Brawl era, but she's fallen by the wayside in lieu of much more promising characters.

Predictions

Lana: 10.10% - She's a one-off and not even a one-off from a main game. She's a spin-off's one-off. She's got recency sure, but in terms of importance, she's pretty close to the bottom of the list for Zelda characters. Don't see tomorrow going well for her.

Nominations

Impa x 5

 

[Cosmic77]

Micaiah

Chance: 0%
Normally I'd give the character at least a 1% chance, but Micaiah is WAY too specific. The only FE characters I'd consider plausible are a FE16 protagonist and to a much lesser extent, Alm or Celica. Everyone else seems like a pipe dream at best.

Want: 0%
Aside from not wanting another FE character to begin with, there are several other unique characters from other franchises we could go with. I'm not about to throw my support for a specific FE character when there are plenty of other options who are truthfully more deserving of those limited roster slots than Micaiah.

Lana prediction: 11.2%

Nominations: Mipha x5

 

[Deleted member]

Meekayuh

Chance: 10%
Her time has long passed, and she isn't that popular among FE fans afaik.

Want: 0%
FE fatigue.


Noms:
Concept: Female announcer x5

Lana prediction: 2.36%

 

[YoshiandToad]

Micaiah
Chance: 0%
She's just not happening. She offers some uniqueness, but she's so far down the list of Fire Emblem characters it's a little depressing.

She's popular(coming 17th overall in CYL, which doesn't sound like much but out of 791 characters that's impressive), but she's beaten in that department by Lyndis, Tharja, Camilla, Eirika, Cordellia and Azura from the women and also by Hector, Ephiraim and Chrom from the guys side, as well as obviously every current Smash Bros. Fire Emblem character.

In terms of magic users she's losing to Tharja in the popular ranks, who was so popular she got a lookalike in Fates as homage to her as well as a recent DLC addition in Fire Emblem Warriors.

Celica also has more of a shot(despite being far lower in the Heroes poll) due to having her game remade recently and getting thrown into Warriors as a promotion for it.

Micaiah hasn't managed to remain relevant to the overall franchise in a major way, I'd say Chrom has somewhat managed this having major roles in spinoffs such as Warriors and Project X Zone 2 after his appearance, a Mii outfit, a cameo in Palutena's Guidance and a role in Robin's Final Smash. Chrom does have far fewer years on Micaiah and thus has the advantage in terms of staying relevant to the series.

In terms of her own game I've heard people state the game only becomes fun when Ike basically elbows her from her main lord status(although I cannot state this as I've not played it) and basically becomes a main focal point.

For every good point Micaiah has(magical uniqueness, being able to sort of rep the 'laguz' species as well as the beorc(aka human) species) there's a dozen reasons why she'd be overlooked in Smash by other Fire Emblemers.

Want: 15%
I'm not against Fire Emblem characters on the whole providing they offer something new, and Micaiah does to an extent...Zelda I guess messes with light based magic a bit but they could be different...however Camilla rides a DRAGON and weilds an axe and that's instantly more interesting.

It's a shame Micaiah's bloodline is so watered down because being able to turn into a heron to fight would have given her something really unique and fun to play with and added a further 35% to this score. I want my transforming Fire Emblem lycanthrope style character dammit! No, Corrin doesn't count. Hush.

Lana: 8%

Nominations:
Fire Emblem Heroes Summoner X 5

 

[skylanders fan]

micaiah
chance 2%
want 2%

lana 10%
nom
mewtwo x5

 

[GoodGrief741]

Micaiah

Chance 5%
I feel like I’m highballing it, but it’s Sakurai and he’s always looking for unique movesets. Otherwise her chances are terrible, she isn’t recent or heavily requested.

Want 11%
Admittedly not my most wanted newcomer or even Fire Emblem newcomer (maybe my 3rd most wanted FE newcomer), but Radiant Dawn is an excellent game and she’s great. The whole magic deal doesn’t really sell me because Robin’s moveset was terrible to be frank.

Lana prediction: 3%
I think everyone’s bias of not caring about her will impact her perceived chances.

Nominations (I can’t believe I won)
QbbyX5
Mach RiderX3
Mike JonesX2

 

[VexTheHex]

Micaiah
Chance - 2%
Her odds of getting as a past lord are rather low. She isn't old enough to warrant a remake any time soon more than likely and her star shined dimmer than Ike's even in the game she was the supposed star in. Though Radiant Dawn focused more on multiple conflicting armies, so she was only one fraction as Ike an Elincia also had their own plot lines. I highly doubt Sakurai will look back on one of the aging mage characters when he already shoved magic into Robin.
Want - 5%
It would of been 0, but I'll show some respect to her #1 supporter who had a conversation with me in the past about her. I personally did not enjoy her character in Radiant Dawn in the slightest. Her team overall felt weaker and harder to get any real use out of in the long run. She had the displeasure of getting both Meg and Fiona, who were both characters you'd have to pour bonus exp into in hopes of them becoming anything decent. I tried doing Fiona once and the lady kept dying cause she starts off far weaker than the enemies. Her team often felt more like a burden with Micaiah's ability to melt armored units being the groups saving grace most of the time. In the end, I merely felt relief when I got to take over Ike's crew or Elincia's Royal Guard. Not only did they feel stronger, but the characters felt more lively due to the superior support conversations from the previous game.

Spoiler: I was also deeply disturbed by

Micaiah's willingness to burn Elincia's (may of been Sanaki's group, though I do recall Elincia's Royal Guard being part of the potential victims. It's hard to find the details on this part of the game.) army to death to save her own people. Not only that, but she knew she would be aiding the "wrong" side in doing this and that the group she'd brutally murder were not the true evil side. She made it quite clear she would do what it takes, but of course she folds when Sothe's life is threatened. So burning people alive is okay, but losing Sothe is too high of a cost for her.

Nominations - 5x Greninja

 

[CaptainAmerica]

Micaiah

Chance: 1%
Want: 0%

A Fire Emblem lord from an old (and pretty forgotten at this point) game. Nothing special. Unless her moveset would be completely unique, nobody’ll care.

Note here about ‘unique’ movesets: there’s unique to a casual who never plays it, and unique to a main. I know people love to go nuts on anyone who calls Lucas or Wolf a clone. That’s the distinction - they play differently to people who play them. But to someone who doesn’t care about the character beyond “space animal with a blaster and Landmaster” or “PK kid with thunder and starstorm,” they’re the same. Yes it’s reductionist, but not everyone analyzes characters move by move.

Why bring it up? “White-haired anime magic user from Fire Emblem” sounds familiar, and no matter how much people complain she’s not Robin, there’ll be a group of people who don't care about minor differences. Especially since there are loads of people who’ve had enough of Fire Emblem, it’s too easy to make a reductionist argument.

Lana prediction: 9.99%
Nom: Skyrim stuff x5

 

[nirvanafan]

Catch up time

Henry Flemming
Chances: 15%
Want: 20%

Ashley
Chances: 30%
Want: 15%

Geno
Chances: 45%
Want: 5%

Isabelle
Chances: 55%
Want: 100%

Miciah
Chances: 5%
Want: 100%

Nomination: Linkle X5

 

[Kitty-chan]

Micaiah

Chance: .1%
Just too irrelevant and facing competition from Celica and others nya.

Want: 75%
I like her nya, a light mage would be fun and interesting, and I'm nyalways open to any FE character nya!

Nyominations
Mimikyu: x5

 

[Sid-cada]

Micaiah

Chance - 1.5% - She's not that popular, not that relevant, and is in a series known for going for promotion over old characters.

Want - 35% - While I'm a bit more interested in her compared to most Fire Emblem characters, it's Anna or bust for me.


Predictions

Lanna - 7.56% - No, not really.


Nominations

Masked Dedede Final Smash X5

 

[Icedragonadam]

Micaiah

Chance: 0.01%

Want: ABSTAINED

Not that popular for requests, Ike is enough for Tellius representation.

Lana Prediction: 10.03%

Nominate Lucas x5

 

[BandanaWaddleDee]

Micaiah
Chance: 0%
Want: 0%
Irrelevant character from an overrepresented franchise

Lana Prediction: 10.59%

Nominations
Decloned Dark Pit x5

 

[Yomi's Biggest Fan]

Micaiah

Chance: 4%

She had long lost relevance and lacks the massive popularity of Lyn. Sorry.

Want: 50%

I wouldn't mind her.

Prediction for Lana: 5%

****ing Tecmo Koei, that is all.

Noms: Sans x5

 

[Edgelord_197]

Micaiah
Chance : 0%
She's an old character that doesn't have a massive popularity like Lyn

Want : 5%
Heard bad things about her

 

[Wyoming]

Now I know the schedule for the next couple of days is already set but could we perhaps rate both Blue Bowser and Tethu on the same day, so we don't have to waste a whole day only talking about a character who has absolutely no chance and basically got nominated as a joke? We also haven't had a double day in a while, either.

It would be possible. The lost day could thus go to Arle Nadja as well, who is dominating the top spot right now.

It is up to TCT~Phantom ultimately

 

[NintenRob]

Double 0 today

Nominate Parabo and Satebo x5

Prediction Lana..... 9%

 

[Wyoming]

Spoiler: Nominations post-Isabelle, pre-Micaiah

Arle Nadja (Puyo Puyo) x271
Veteran: Lucas x253
Veteran: Mewtwo x233
Concept: veteran character artworks recycled from Smash 3DS/Wii U x223
Veteran: Greninja x221
Mike Jones (StarTropics) x218
Impa x212

Over 200:

Black Shadow x212
Agumon x210
Ganon x206


199-150

Concept: Marth and Roy given their English VAs x190
Urban Champion x180
Bomberman x175
Qbby (BoxBoy!) x173
Lycanroc x166
Kamek x165
Dark Samus x159
Spyro x159
Funky Kong x157
Travis Touchdown x156
Sans (Undertale) x153
Concept: Decloned Dark Pit x152
Music: Final Destination (Ver. 2) x150

149-100

Pyra/Mythra (without Rex) x137
Mipha x137
Azura (Fire Emblem) x137
Simon Belmont x135
Masked Link x133
Snip & Clip (Snipperclips) x130
Lip (Panel de Pon) x127
Concept: Octopath Traveller Character x120
Sylux x120
Concept: Decloned Ganondorf x118
Gengar x115
Neku Sakuraba (The World Ends with You) x110
Linkle x105
Octoling x105
Concept: Skyrim representation x105
Parabo & Satebo x104
Wonder Red x103
Fawful x101
Tsubasa Oribe (Tokyo Mirage Sessions ♯FE) x100
Cranky Kong x100

99-75

Thwomp x98
Excitebiker x96
Ryu Hayabusa x95
Concept: Ken Masters alt Costume for Ryu x86
Tetra x80
KOS-MOS x80
2B (Nier: Automata) x78
Papyrus x78
Mimikyu x77
Katrielle Layton x76

74-50

Fjorm (Fire Emblem) x72
Klonoa x70
Concept: Fire Emblem Heroes Summoner x70
Labo related character x68
Sakura Shinguji x63
Veronica x61
Concept: Fire Emblem Spear User x60
Zeraora (Pokémon) x58
Sable Prince x58
Susie (Kirby) x56
Slippy Toad x55
Veteran: Roy x51
Lara Croft x51

49-30:

Barbara The Bat x49
Concept: Canon Bowser/DK/Diddy voice clips x49
Lloyd Irving x47
Veteran: Dr. Mario x47
Steve (Minecraft) x46
Django (Boktai) x45
Concept: Masked Dedede Final Smash x45
Ray (Custom Robo) x43
Tom Nook x43
Starfy x40
Tingle x40
Concept: Wars character x39
Pokemon Trainer (Gen 2) x39
Gooey (Kirby) x37
Concept: Mother Newcomer x35
Callie and Marie (Splatoon) x35
Nia and Dromarch (Xenoblade) x34
Doshin the Giant x32
Veteran: Bayonetta x32
Balloon Fighter x32
Dragonite x32
Rick/Coo/Kine (Kirby) x31
Arcade Bunny x31
Primarina x30
Tails x30
Snorlax x29
Leo (FE Fates) x28
Takumi (Fire Emblem) x28
Viridi x28
Concept: Indie Character x28
9-Volt x28
Hector (Fire Emblem) x 26
Medusa (Kid Icarus) x 26
Returning game mode: Smash Run x26
Ghirahim x26
Sophitia (Soulcalibur) x25
Double Day: Sheriff / Diskun x25
Prince Fluff (Kirby) x25
Tiki (Fire Emblem) x25
Concept: Style Savvy Character x25
Endou Mamoru x25
Toon Zelda x25
Stage: New Donk City x25

New entries (post-Purge, 24 and less):

Slime (Dragon Quest) x12
Concept: Battlefield Stages x10
Torra & Poppi x10
Concept: Female Announcer x10
Mach Rider x5
Alex Kidd x5
[Rerate] Daisy x5
Concept: No Mega Evolutions x4
[Rerate] Squirtle x2

Changes:

Greninja passes Mike Jones for 5th.
Impa is now into the top 7 by virtue of tiebreaker rule v Black Shadow (y'all can't say I am biased!). Agumon drops out to 9th.
Sans and Decloned Dark Pit break 150 noms
Parabo & Satebo, Wonder Red, Fawful, and Cranky Kong break 100 noms
KOS-MOS, Papyrus, Mimikyu, and Katrielle Layton break 75 noms
New additions: Rerating both Daisy (x5), and Squirtle (x2)

Also I waited like 15 mins to post this. Thank you NintenRob

 

[Cycrum]

Micaiah

Chance: 0%
She is from a franchise that many have said is overrepresented, there are many other possible Fire Emblem who are far more popular and relevant, and her game already has a rep in Ike.

Want: 50%
Have never played a Fire Emblem game, but the concept of a self-damaging, hard-hitting mage intrigues me.

Nominations:

Steve (Minecraft) x5

Predictions:
Lana (Hyrule Warriors): 13%

 

[Deleted member]

Micaiah

Chance: 1%

Outclassed by other FE characters in terms of both relevance and popularity.

Want: 35%

There are other FE characters I'd prefer.

Nomination: Simon Belmont x5

 

[Opossum]

.

Want: 50%
Have never played a Fire Emblem game, but the concept of a self-damaging, hard-hitting mage intrigues me.

That's Celica you're thinking of. Magic doesn't cause recoil damage in Radiant Dawn.

 

[Troykv]

Micaiah

Chance: 0%
She is from a franchise that many have said is overrepresented, there are many other possible Fire Emblem who are far more popular and relevant, and her game already has a rep in Ike.

Want: 50%
Have never played a Fire Emblem game, but the concept of a self-damaging, hard-hitting mage intrigues me.

Nominations:

Steve (Minecraft) x5

That's Celica you're thinking of. Magic doesn't cause recoil damage in Radiant Dawn.

Well... you're half-right, half-wrong... The Magic recoil is mostly a thing from Fire Emblem Gaiden (Celica), but Micaiah actually has a recoil based ability that is show several times in her game, both gameplay and story-wise (Sacrifice)

 

[Cycrum]

Well... you're half-right, half-wrong... The Magic recoil is mostly a thing from Fire Emblem Gaiden (Celica), but Micaiah actually has a recoil based ability that is show several times in her game, both gameplay and story-wise (Sacrifice)

Whoops. Celica completely slipped my mind, to be honest. Thanks for the correction. (Probably should have verified that.)

 

[Opossum]

Well... you're half-right, half-wrong... The Magic recoil is mostly a thing from Fire Emblem Gaiden (Celica), but Micaiah actually has a recoil based ability that is show several times in her game, both gameplay and story-wise (Sacrifice)

Sacrifice, right? I just wasn't sure how to incorporate that into Smash, is all.