Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[TheFritzle]

Micaiah Chance
1%
She’s an irrelevant character from an old Fire Emblem game. She hasn’t been relevant in years. Fire Emblem already has a lot of competition and not much room. It would be one thing if Fire Emblem was a dormant franchise, but for one that is constantly getting new games and characters, there isn’t room to look back at old characters that aren’t popular or relevant.

Micaiah Want:
15%
There are other Fire Emblem characters that I’d rather see, but I would like more weapon classes represented so I would be fine with her.

Lana Prediction:
11.85%

Nominations:
Sylux x5

 

[Troykv]

Sacrifice, right? I just wasn't sure how to incorporate that into Smash, is all.

There is the concept itself of an recoil based ability in her moveset to play around the idea with some Creative Liberties... I'm still wondering how exactly incorporate it xDU

 

[smileMasky]

Micaiah

Chance:0%
Already got our fill of Fire Emblem honestly.
And if we were to get a new rep it would most likely be in the new one that's being made. But I've only played 4 FE games the first GBA for us north Americans and the 3 3DS ones. (Awakening, Fates, Echo). I don't know a lot about this character but what I do know is that Ike is from the same game as hers. So her game does at least have some representation.

Want: 10%
Only for the variety of moveset potential.

Nomination Django x5

 

[Deleted member]

Michaiah
Chances- 10%
I feel like her time has past, she would make a great assist trophy for smash bros but otherwise, there are more relevent fire emblem characters.
Want- 20%
Meh, shea alright ig, but again i prefer other characters.

Prediction:
Lana 30%- I hope shes higher but this board isnt too fond of spin off characters.

Noms-
Tora and Poppi x 5

 

[Capybara Gaming]

Micaiah:
Chance: 0.5% - Unless her game gets a remake/re-release that is heavily marketed and began development during the time the roster was chosen, she will not be added.
Want: 0% - Why? This character is irrelevant.

Prediction: Lana
Chance: 23.91%
Want: 59.01%

Nominations:
Sakura Shinguji x5

 

[YoshiandToad]

Huh. I stand slightly corrected; Micaiah is actually more popular in the second round of Choose Your Legends, coming 13th this time round opposed to 17th last time.

This ranking beat out Chrom, which is pretty impressive given how popular he is and she's now ahead of fellow mage Tharja who previously came third from the girls. Impressive work actually!

 

[Al-kīmiyā']

Micaiah want: 6% (16-10*)

I don't find the aesthetics of a light-based moveset very compelling, but the stave powers are interesting.

Nominations:

FE Spear User x5

* Indicates percentage penalty for potentially taking a slot from most wanted characters

 

[NintenRob]

Spoiler: Nominations post-Isabelle, pre-Micaiah

Arle Nadja (Puyo Puyo) x271
Veteran: Lucas x253
Veteran: Mewtwo x233
Concept: veteran character artworks recycled from Smash 3DS/Wii U x223
Veteran: Greninja x221
Mike Jones (StarTropics) x218
Impa x212

Over 200:

Black Shadow x212
Agumon x210
Ganon x206


199-150

Concept: Marth and Roy given their English VAs x190
Urban Champion x180
Bomberman x175
Qbby (BoxBoy!) x173
Lycanroc x166
Kamek x165
Dark Samus x159
Spyro x159
Funky Kong x157
Travis Touchdown x156
Sans (Undertale) x153
Concept: Decloned Dark Pit x152
Music: Final Destination (Ver. 2) x150

149-100

Pyra/Mythra (without Rex) x137
Mipha x137
Azura (Fire Emblem) x137
Simon Belmont x135
Masked Link x133
Snip & Clip (Snipperclips) x130
Lip (Panel de Pon) x127
Concept: Octopath Traveller Character x120
Sylux x120
Concept: Decloned Ganondorf x118
Gengar x115
Neku Sakuraba (The World Ends with You) x110
Linkle x105
Octoling x105
Concept: Skyrim representation x105
Parabo & Satebo x104
Wonder Red x103
Fawful x101
Tsubasa Oribe (Tokyo Mirage Sessions ♯FE) x100
Cranky Kong x100

99-75

Thwomp x98
Excitebiker x96
Ryu Hayabusa x95
Concept: Ken Masters alt Costume for Ryu x86
Tetra x80
KOS-MOS x80
2B (Nier: Automata) x78
Papyrus x78
Mimikyu x77
Katrielle Layton x76

74-50

Fjorm (Fire Emblem) x72
Klonoa x70
Concept: Fire Emblem Heroes Summoner x70
Labo related character x68
Sakura Shinguji x63
Veronica x61
Concept: Fire Emblem Spear User x60
Zeraora (Pokémon) x58
Sable Prince x58
Susie (Kirby) x56
Slippy Toad x55
Veteran: Roy x51
Lara Croft x51

49-30:

Barbara The Bat x49
Concept: Canon Bowser/DK/Diddy voice clips x49
Lloyd Irving x47
Veteran: Dr. Mario x47
Steve (Minecraft) x46
Django (Boktai) x45
Concept: Masked Dedede Final Smash x45
Ray (Custom Robo) x43
Tom Nook x43
Starfy x40
Tingle x40
Concept: Wars character x39
Pokemon Trainer (Gen 2) x39
Gooey (Kirby) x37
Concept: Mother Newcomer x35
Callie and Marie (Splatoon) x35
Nia and Dromarch (Xenoblade) x34
Doshin the Giant x32
Veteran: Bayonetta x32
Balloon Fighter x32
Dragonite x32
Rick/Coo/Kine (Kirby) x31
Arcade Bunny x31
Primarina x30
Tails x30
Snorlax x29
Leo (FE Fates) x28
Takumi (Fire Emblem) x28
Viridi x28
Concept: Indie Character x28
9-Volt x28
Hector (Fire Emblem) x 26
Medusa (Kid Icarus) x 26
Returning game mode: Smash Run x26
Ghirahim x26
Sophitia (Soulcalibur) x25
Double Day: Sheriff / Diskun x25
Prince Fluff (Kirby) x25
Tiki (Fire Emblem) x25
Concept: Style Savvy Character x25
Endou Mamoru x25
Toon Zelda x25
Stage: New Donk City x25

New entries (post-Purge, 24 and less):

Slime (Dragon Quest) x12
Concept: Battlefield Stages x10
Torra & Poppi x10
Concept: Female Announcer x10
Mach Rider x5
Alex Kidd x5
[Rerate] Daisy x5
Concept: No Mega Evolutions x4
[Rerate] Squirtle x2

Changes:

Greninja passes Mike Jones for 5th.
Impa is now into the top 7 by virtue of tiebreaker rule v Black Shadow (y'all can't say I am biased!). Agumon drops out to 9th.
Sans and Decloned Dark Pit break 150 noms
Parabo & Satebo, Wonder Red, Fawful, and Cranky Kong break 100 noms
KOS-MOS, Papyrus, Mimikyu, and Katrielle Layton break 75 noms
New additions: Rerating both Daisy (x5), and Squirtle (x2)

Also I waited like 15 mins to post this. Thank you NintenRob

Wait? What did I do? Did I make you have to move things around

 

[Erureido]

Micaiah

Chance: 1%

While she is decently popular in the Fire Emblem fanbase, she has competition from several other Fire Emblem candidates. What really holds her back is that she comes from a Fire Emblem game that has long lost relevancy.

Want: Abstain

I'd like to play Radiant Dawn first before forming my opinion on the character and whether or not I want to see her in Smash, but I will say this: the concept of a light mage like Micaiah is interesting.

------

Predictions

Lana (Hyrule Warriors): 4.32%

Being a spin-off exclusive will probably hold her down quite a bit.

------

Nominations

Greninja (Pokemon): x5

 

[Wyoming]

Wait? What did I do? Did I make you have to move things around

Nah prevented the double post. Good lad.

 

[NintenRob]

Nah prevented the double post. Good lad.

oh, that makes sense. Didn't even see that.

 

[Quetzal77]

Huh. I stand slightly corrected; Micaiah is actually more popular in the second round of Choose Your Legends, coming 13th this time round opposed to 17th last time.

This ranking beat out Chrom, which is pretty impressive given how popular he is and she's now ahead of fellow mage Tharja who previously came third from the girls. Impressive work actually!

Likely due in part to her being added to Heroes around the time of the second poll and being quite a good unit in that game. Even so, her ranking so well both times and higher than Tharja in the second round surprised a lot of people! I voted for her both times so I was quite pleased, RD is my favourite FE game.

 

[Lord-Zero]

Micaiah

Chance: 2%

- While a concept of a pure FE-themed mage sounds appealing, the FE fatigue is as strong as it’s ever been, Robin has a more unique gimmick and Micaiah here would have competition in the form of the SoV version of Celica. Very unlikely.

Want: 9%

- Not a priority but I wouldn’t be mad.

Prediction

Lana (Hyrule Warriors) : 19.5%

- Being from a spin-off puts her in an awkward position but it’s not like Smash doesn’t acknowledge spin-offs; Smash does acknowledge them a lot and besides, Dr. Mario comes from a spin-off among other things.

Nominations

Katrielle Layton (Professor Layton) x3
Starfy (The Legendary Starfy) x2

 

[Aetheri]

Micaiah

Chance: 1%
Don't see it happening...

Want: 1%
Honestly don't care enough about the character...

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Lana-12.32%

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Dark Samus x5

 

[Smasher 101]

Micaiah

Chance: 0.5%

Her game was eleven years ago, that era already has a Smash fighter in Ike, she's not quite as popular as other choices, a new Fire Emblem character is likely to be someone with recency on their side like fellow magic user Celica, if an older lord is added it'll likely be the super popular Lyn, she was one of the last main characters even added to Heroes...it's all been said before, and unfortunately with so much going against her I don't think Micaiah has a shot at even being considered. Sorry. .5 just because I don't want to give a character notable to their game a flat zero.

Want: 30%

I'm not super opposed to a Fire Emblem character, but personally there are other characters from the series I'm more interested in. She's certainly not a bad choice, though.

Lana prediction: 9.17%

Nominations: Bomberman x5

 

[Roberk]

Chances: 1%
You guys know how Awakening is said to have saved the series? Well Radiant Dawn, Micaiah's game, can be considered what almost killed the series. It's not the game's fault, just the usual poor marketing for the franchise in that era and RELEASING A WEEK BEFORE SUPER MARIO GALAXY WHAT WERE THEY THINKING just not making that much of a splash. We didn't even get the New Mystery of the Emblem remake for the DS because they probably didn't have the budget for an international release. The point is, RD tanked hard and while parts of it might be beloved to the community, it certainly isn't in IS's eyes. I highly doubt a character unique to that game would be repped. (Buff Ike "reps" RD but doesn't really match the scope of this discussion.)

Even if her game wasn't a failure, Micaiah would still have a lot of hurdles to jump through. While she placed in the top 20 for both CYLs, she's on the lower scale of that spectrum getting 17th and 13th and has a lot of competition in terms of raw official popularity. And those numbers are only for the female division of CYL.

Her game isn't successful, it's not relevant, she's not as popular as others, and from what I've heard she's a Mary Sue of a character. Not the worst character for an FE lord thanks Corrin but definitely not something benefiting her coming to Smash.

Want: 25%
While I was disappointed by Robin's moveset not being completely magic and nosferatu sucking and so hard to land like it's one of the most op tomes in FE wtf I'm not too hyped on Micaiah. There are other mages I like better (pfp: Erk best FE7 mage fight me) and while it's not realistic for them to make it into Smash as fighters than a lord like Micaiah I still want them more than her. I unironically want Reinhardt (who actually has a better shot than Micaiah with CYL 2) more than Micaiah, she just doesn't really interest me. One thing I want to add though is her ability to use staves: some sleep, silence, and warp effects would be really cool.

Lana Prediction: 5%
We don't really know much about the patterns involving spinoffs like Nintendo Warriors games are when it comes to Smash. Would make for some good Hyrule Warriors Switch promotion though.

Noms: Azura x5

 

[Tew]

Micaiah Chance:
1%
I do think a new Fire Emblem character is very likely but the competition is just too hig. There are so many other characters I think have a way better chance like Lyn, Hector, Camilla, Tharja, Tiki, Fjorm, Black Knight, Anna, Azura and so on. I also don't think the second CYL poll matters a lot anymore. Even if it might show that many like a specific character, it would be way too late for Smash 5, at max as a DLC and even that seems unlikely. If a CYL natters, than maybe the first one but even that one might be close.

Micaiah Want:
5%
I don't really care about her, but I like Fe and a pure magic user would be nice, but for that role I'd prefer someone like Tharja or Linde. Though I heard about an idea of having a third summoning methode in Smash 5, besides Assist Trophies and Pokeballs. And that would be with Fire Emblem Characters. Especially with Feheroes I think the idea is quite nice and actually doesn't seem too farfetched. This idea is explained in a youtube Video but I am not sure which one it was.


Lana Predict:
24,82%

Nominations:
3x Fjorm
2x Slime

 

[DaUsername]

Micai-ah, whatever
Chance: 1%
Want: 0%

Lana prediction: 22%
Noms: Mike Jones x5

 

[Opossum]

Chances: 1%
You guys know how Awakening is said to have saved the series? Well Radiant Dawn, Micaiah's game, can be considered what almost killed the series. It's not the game's fault, just the usual poor marketing for the franchise in that era and RELEASING A WEEK BEFORE SUPER MARIO GALAXY WHAT WERE THEY THINKING just not making that much of a splash. We didn't even get the New Mystery of the Emblem remake for the DS because they probably didn't have the budget for an international release. The point is, RD tanked hard and while parts of it might be beloved to the community, it certainly isn't in IS's eyes. I highly doubt a character unique to that game would be repped. (Buff Ike "reps" RD but doesn't really match the scope of this discussion.)

Even if her game wasn't a failure, Micaiah would still have a lot of hurdles to jump through. While she placed in the top 20 for both CYLs, she's on the lower scale of that spectrum getting 17th and 13th and has a lot of competition in terms of raw official popularity. And those numbers are only for the female division of CYL.

Her game isn't successful, it's not relevant, she's not as popular as others, and from what I've heard she's a Mary Sue of a character. Not the worst character for an FE lord thanks Corrin but definitely not something benefiting her coming to Smash.

Want: 25%
While I was disappointed by Robin's moveset not being completely magic and nosferatu sucking and so hard to land like it's one of the most op tomes in FE wtf I'm not too hyped on Micaiah. There are other mages I like better (pfp: Erk best FE7 mage fight me) and while it's not realistic for them to make it into Smash as fighters than a lord like Micaiah I still want them more than her. I unironically want Reinhardt (who actually has a better shot than Micaiah with CYL 2) more than Micaiah, she just doesn't really interest me. One thing I want to add though is her ability to use staves: some sleep, silence, and warp effects would be really cool.

Lana Prediction: 5%
We don't really know much about the patterns involving spinoffs like Nintendo Warriors games are when it comes to Smash. Would make for some good Hyrule Warriors Switch promotion though.

Noms: Azura x5

If it's any consolation the general perception now seems to be that all the Mary Sue comments were vastly overblown. Haven't played Radiant Dawn, but from what I've seen others say, she actually seems like one of the more believable and even morally gray main protagonists.

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Micaiah

2% Chance
100% Want

She may be irrelevant but who knows the tellius games could get a rerelease idk. She’s cool and cute too.

Nominating Spyro x 5

Day ends at 9:00 AM EDT

 

[Luminario]

Micaiah

Chance: 5%
Unfortunately, she's just not all that relevant, and FE fighters all get in on relevancy. She's got popularity, as she appeared in the top 10 in both the Heroes polls, but she was still on the lower end both times. Her chances essentially bank on the fact she is the main star of a FE game with more potential than any lord with a sword.
Want: 75%
She's one of my favourite FE characters so I'd be overjoyed if she joined Smash, but I'm hardly expecting her to be there.

Nominate: Mimikyu x5

 

[Deleted member]

Micaiah

Chance: 0.5%
Her time is long gone, and she's not even a mega-popular character from the franchise. Her only prayer is that she does have her fans and her uniqueness factor.

Want: 70%
I like her.

Lana prediction: 13.41%

Nominating KOS-MOS x5

 

[Dig Dug]

Micaiah

Chance: 1% Her ship sailed loooooong ago and I don't think they'll be too keen on adding anymore FE chars this time around, let alone from one of the weaker selling games.

Want: 70% While I really don't like the series much anymore, I'll always have a special place in my heart for my first FE game. I'd be happy to see her.

Nominating Lycanroc x5

 

[Parallel_Falchion]

If it's any consolation the general perception now seems to be that all the Mary Sue comments were vastly overblown. Haven't played Radiant Dawn, but from what I've seen others say, she actually seems like one of the more believable and even morally gray main protagonists.

She absolutely is. Corrin is a horrible character, but I can thank the character for one thing: they made everyone realize Micaiah was at least not that bad of a morally grey character. I don't know how anyone ever considered her a Mary Sue in the first place.

 

[Troykv]

She absolutely is. Corrin is a horrible character, but I can thank the character for one thing: they made everyone realize Micaiah was at least not that bad of a morally grey character. I don't know how anyone ever considered her a Mary Sue in the first place.

Spoiler

I think they exaggerated up to eleven the value of her "secret princess" traits.

 

[Pennate]

Micaiah:

Chance: 5%

Want: 50%

Nominations:
Ganon x5

 

[andimidna]

Micaiah:
I mentioned her in my big FE rant on Celica’s day p sure. I don’t think I have anything new or unique to add since then. I agree with the majority
Chance: 0.1%
I wish I could put more. The competition from this series is brutal. I do 100% think she’d be picked over Tharja if they specially wanted a full magic character not remotely related to a sword, but I just can’t imagine passing up on Celica. I also don’t see magic as being in need of representation. It’s easy to make unique, but many other things are as well.
Want: 80%
While I’ve never got a chance to play the Ike games, from what I’ve heard, they sound and look great. Also, FE does a good job and having old characters’s legacies live on by giving a taste of them as DLC or in spinoffs. So, I am at least somewhat familiar with the character. Ultimately, I am a bit more interested in Anna, Azura, Tiki, and a couple others, of which I’m banking on none, but there’s only a handful of FE characters I’d hate to see.

Lana prediction: 8%
I actually don’t know what others think of her, really.

More Fire Emblems:
x2 Veronica
x2 Azura
x1 Tiki

 

[ProfPeanut]

Spoiler

I think they exaggerated up to eleven the value of her "secret princess" traits.

But, aren't both Celica and Lyn also secretly princesses?

 

[Michelaar]

Chance: 10%
Want: 100%

Micaiah is one of my favourite lords, I'd be thrilled if she got in.

 

[Scamper52596]

Micaiah

Chance: 3%
I have to be honest. I really don't see it happening this time around. Maybe if her game gets a remake at some point. I think BluePikmin11 is right when he claims that the Fire Emblem franchise in Smash is partially, if not mainly, about promotion. Either that or just adding the newest main character from the latest game. It seems like it has always been that way aside from Marth. Which is too bad in my opinion since there are some FE characters that I think deserve to be playable that have missed out. Micaiah being one of those characters.
I'll give the Silver-Haired Maiden a chance of 3%. I don't think the status quo for the FE franchise is going to change...

Want: 80%
I'm typically not a fan of the idea of adding more Fire Emblem characters; although, Micaiah is one of the very few FE characters that I wouldn't mind seeing become playable. A few years ago I probably wouldn't have said that, but I think Troykv's dedication to the character eventually warmed me up to her. I even started playing FE: Heroes again after they added her to the game so I could add her to my team. I think she would be a cool character to see in Smash.

Prediction
Lana: 15.1%

Nominations
Tetra x 3
Toon Zelda x 2

 

[Esquelen]

Micaiah

Chance: 5%
A character from the old Fire Emblem that has nothing to represent Smash, and as I saw in the comments, is the same game where Ike was, so fewer reasons there unless Sakurai gets more crazy putting more Fire Emblem characters .

Want: 0%
No more Fire Emblem characters, please.

 

[Graizen]

Micaiah
Chances: 10%
Want: 50%

Remove some Fire Emblem Clones, and we can put her no problem.

Nomination: Agumon x5

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Ok I am working on calcs now, please rate Lana and predict ... Blue Bowser.

 

[Deleted member]

Chance: 5%
Want: 30%
I don't think she's likely due to being a spin-off exclusive character. I think Skull Kid, Midna and even the champions have a better chance than her.
Never played Hyrule Warriors but magic users are cool, and I kinda like her design. At least she's not as forced of an addition as Impa is.

Susie x5

 

[slambros]

Lana

Chance: 3%
I really don't see Lana being prioritized as a spinoff character created by a developer other than Nintendo. If Nintendo is going to cooperate with Tecmo that much, I don't see why they wouldn't just go with Ryu Hayabusa instead. I think Lana is a Geno sort of situation, only with a recency that's been unable to gauge fan engagement and a lack of the uniqueness that made Geno stand apart.

Want: 20%
I think Lana would make for a decent moveset but I'm not crazy about her.

Nominations:
Arle Nadja x5

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

Lana

Chance: 5%

Another oneshot Zelda character and from a Spin-off at that. Doubt it!

Want: ABSTAIN

Predictions for Bowser pallete swap: 0.04%
Are we really gonna do this instead of a double day?

Nominations: Canon DK/Bowser/Diddy voices x5

 

[Icedragonadam]

Lana

2%

Now Zelda is a doozie because of all of the one off characters. Lana is even bigger headache due to the fact that Hyrule Warriors is a Spin-Off and like other characters, a one-off. So she's hardly a frontrunner compared to the likes of Impa(the only recurring character not in Smash).

Want: 10%

I'm indifferent towards her and there's other Zelda characters I prefer.

Blue Bowser.................. Prediction: 0.67%

Okay seriously? This would have been better off as April Fools Day prediction.

Nominate Lloyd Irving x3, Mewtwo x2

 

[YoshiandToad]

Lana
Chance: 5%
Lana has great move set potential wielding three totally different weapons including a summoning gate that gives her access to the most feared threat in all of Zelda; cuccos, aka chickens.

She's appeared in a recent pretty successful game on the Wii U which later saw ports to both 3DS and Switch and was a major character in said game being one of three of the major protagonists!

So everything seems to line up nice for Lana right? Well no...first she's actually not a Nintendo creation but designed and realised by Koei Tecmo, although I believe Nintendo does own her? Someone check this plz.

Secondly she's a one off character, curse of Zelda characters, and many fans are a little on the fence about her considering her J-pop inspired look fits into Zelda about as well as Dark Souls looking bosses would fit into Mario(which they did in Odyssey so what the hell do I know) and that she seems to have taken the deku stick move set that fan fave Saris would most likely have used.

Hyrule Warriors is HUGELY popular but it is at the end of the day a spinoff, which many consider Waluigi and Daisy unlikely for.

Lastly, Hyrule Warriors is not the most current Zelda game and Breath of the Wild seems to be what Link is based off of. A shame. Hyrule Warriors Ganondorf is the most kickass design he's ever gotten and both Link and Zelda look great in their outfits. Hell even Sheik could get her updated look...

Want: 65%
Lana isn't my first choice of Zelda character, as honestly only her lightning spell book weapon seemed genuinely fun to play with, but Hyrule Warriors was a big game of the Wii U for me. I'd far prefer Impa get in to rep that game as she was 'my main' and also a reoccurring character, but Lana getting in would at least acknowledge how hugely successful Hyrule Warriors was.

Prediction Blue Bowser: 0.02%
I can't believe we're dedicating a whole day to this. Not sure if this is amazing or awful.

Nomination: Fire Emblem Heroes Summoner x5

 

[Yomi's Biggest Fan]

Lana

Chance: 8%

Lana does have some competition in the form of other Tecmo creations like Ryu, Kasumi/Ayane. another Warriors character and Fatal Frame character as far as ownership. Spinoff characters are also seen as low priority compared to canon mainline characters.

For Lana to be considered, she needs a louder base and Tecmo wanting to promote her. Plus, she's got much to offer being a mage with three potential movesets and could have a Warriors-like playstle for her gimmick.

Want: 80%

She's got potential and is the third main character of Hyrule Warriors. I wouldn't mind her.

Blue Bowser: 0.5%

Who the **** thought this was a good idea....

Nominations: Sans x5

 

[Aetheri]

Lana

Chance: 1%
As big as Hyrule Warriors is, we'll more than likely get a character that was in a mainline game, if at all...

Want: 0%
Never really was a fan of Lana tbh...Linkle is pretty much the only HW OC that I have any interest in...

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Blue Bowser-2.35%

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Dark Samus x5