Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[Shyy_Guy595]

Captain Toad

Chance: 80%

This lovable deviation from the main and mostly indistinguisable species has earned his own game that is currently being ported to two consoles and will undoubtedly reach around the sales people claim FE to reach in totality becuase of it. He's got charm and is one of the most iconic characters not yet in Smash. He's relevant, popular in terms of both being Toad and as well as this particular one housing the potential for a fun, unique moveset, and has had mainstream appearances in almost every game since his debut. He checks off nearly everything. The only issues he has are the potential complaints about Mario that may hold Sakurai back, and that he has competition in the form of Waluigi and Daisy. As far as I see it though, he checks off way more than them and other newcomers as well.

Want: 90%

A fun character and offers the chance to be unique.

I'll post Pauline later

 

[So_many_mails]

Pauline
Chance: 1%
I see no reason for her to be added over Waluigi or Captain Toad: characters with the own games, things that could be movesets already in other games, and general uniqueness. Then again, she was pushed quite a bit for Odyssey.
Want: 1%
I would prefer her to Daisy but I don't want either.

Captain Toad:
Chance: 50%
His game is getting ported to 3DS and Switch, he was in Odyssey and he's popular: I think he has a very good chance. The fact he can't jump is a slight problem, as I don't think Sakurai would want to 'betray' a important character trait, and we can't have a character with no jump in Smash.
Want: 40%
He's a cool character, and the inevitable Toadette recolour sounds cool.

Noms:
Professor Layton x5

Takamaru Prediction: 32%

 

[Erureido]

Literally ****ing what.

It's a prediction that some will argue for Takamaru's inclusion because of his retro appeal, while the other half will argue against it because they'll refer to how he hasn't had a new game in years. It's not what I actually think where Takamaru stands. My side on this debate will be provided tomorrow.

 

[YoshiandToad]

A very good point. However, even at the time of the first Smash Bros, Yoshi had his own game series with a handful of games, where as Captain Toad only has one game, ported but still the same game, and Bandana Dee has none.

But that's the thing; no one is saying "Bandana Dee/Captain Toad aren't the protagonists of enough games" they're saying "they're generic" whilst we have Yoshi being depicted in the Melee opening being just one of many Yoshi, being depicted in every adventure mode Smash has had with his variant colours as just one of many Yoshis, and even in some of those games Yoshi isn't treated as an individual just as one of many.
Heck, everyone's favourite Yoshi game, Yoshi's Island, has him in rotation for the stages with every other colour Yoshi.

He's my favourite video game character but I can't help but think you can't point at Bandana Dee and Captain Toad, characters whom have their own identities and individual abilities and quirks and say generic and then look at Yoshi and say "Yup, he's not generic".

Maybe yes. After all, Yoshi really didn't come into his own until he got his own series, and started showing up in side games. The same can be said for Jigglypuff now that there are so many more Pokémon, and she's been left out of the spotlight so long.

Everyone has played different games, so a lot of people probably don't know about them as anything but generics. I haven't played much Mario, but I will say that I know Yoshi much better from Mario Party games than anything else, since in the main series, he's generic. I've also not played Kirby, so all I know of Dee is the fanbase here, and the only thing I know of Toad is that they're the generic minons of the mushroom kingdom and act as stage decorations on all of the Kart tracks.

I know it can be annoying for people to dismiss your favorites out of hand (I've got some of my favorites that I'm not expecting in becuase they're "one-game wonders" or "too new" or "Zelda already has too many reps" or "Sakurai said Ridley is too big!"), but Smash is looking at a lot of different series, so there will be a lot of different opinions. I tend to low-ball chances since I know I can't predict him (Bayonetta and Corrin both scored below 5% chance in the DLC RTC thread, while Wolf was in the 70s), but to think of these statements as personal attacks is taking it a bit far.

I will say that I hope you get what you want and prove everyone wrong. As a Ridley fan, I know how disappointing it can be to get continually brushed off, but I don't let it get to me anymore.

I'm really not taking it as a personal attack as much as I'm baffled by the point.
I just can't get my head around the bizarre mental gymnastics involved for something like 'too generic' to be taken as a legit counterargument against the two in question who have unique names to differentiate themselves from their species, are prominant individuals in their games and are very much treated like they are their own characters rather than one of many.

Yoshi, my favourite character even, has even less to differentiate himself from his brethren, shares his protagonist role with the rest of his species in his own games, has no differing abilities from other Yoshis, has the standard "Yoshi" as a name and is treated as one of many in Smash in the adventure modes.

It's just an interesting mindset to have and makes no logical sense when you think about it. I'll forgive the Pokemon because the series basically only has generic Pokemon to fall back on rather than individuals, but Yoshi really should be a hard counterpoint to any 'generic member of his species' when he's not even treated as an individual in every Mario spinoff game(the recent Mario Dash and the 3DS Mario Tennis game come to mind).

That's true but the difference is Yoshi was introduced as an individual and then part of a race whereas it's the opposite with the other 2. It's a subtle difference sure but it allows for people to view a Green Yoshi as distinct since he was introduced as distinct but the other 2 are more easily viewed as one of the crowd. Whether that's fair or not doesn't matter it's just how association works.

I mean this feels like a bit of a reach but it's probably the best argument in it's favour for why people differentiate the three. It doesn't really make any sense at this point, but I guess nostalgia can be a factor in deciding who is or isn't generic.
Yoshi is still inarguably more generic as a member of his own species than Captain Toad or Bandana Dee are though, and that's coming from a big dedicated Yoshi fan.

 

[Icedragonadam]

Captain Toad

Chance: 50%

Want:0%

He's a become a prominent character now so he seems to have a good chance.

Unfortunately I have a huge dislike of the Toad species for various reasons.

Pauline

Chance: 15%

Want: 20%

Her reappearace in Super Mario Odyssey certainly boosted her chances of being added. But not quite enough to Rosalina level. In terms of moveset. Honestly that's pretty hard.

But in terms of likeness. She was always meh to me. But I do love her song.

Nomination

Lucas x5

Prediction

Takamaru: 51.26%

 

[BluePikmin11]

As optimistic most people feel how good Captain Toad's chances are, I feel the complete opposite of that spectrum. The thing I will not argue is his moveset potential. Based on the positive moveset arguments given in today's RTC, I do think there is enough to work with Captain Toad, there is enough provided to spark Sakurai's imagination out of. However, the problem I have with him is his significance and representation to the Mario series as a whole.

Captain Toad established his own series in Treasure Tracker after his minor role in the Galaxy games and his bigger role in Super Mario 3D World. The game can definitely be considered a minor success in terms of Mario spinoffs, given the 1 million+ units sold on the Wii U. With his minor role appearing yet again for Mario Odyssey and a re-release of Treasure Tracker for the Switch soon, it seems like Captain Toad is closer than ever to having a playable status. Well, here is the biggest issue. The problem is that his spinoff series is not significant enough for him to warrant that status.

Consider all the Mario characters in the Smash 4 roster. Mario, Luigi, Peach, Bowser are the main representatives. Then we get to the characters like Rosalina and Bowser Jr. Given their major appearances in best selling games like NSMB Wii and Super Mario Galaxy and pushes in marketing for Wii U and 3DS Mario games years ago, their playability in Smash 4 is no surprise. Now we get to the characters from the Mario spinoffs like Dr. Mario, Donkey Kong, Diddy Kong, Wario, and Yoshi.

What do all of the Mario spinoff characters share in common? Their spinoff games shared massive financial successes and critical acclaim in games like SMW: Yoshi's Island 2, the Donkey Kong Country Trilogy, Dr. Mario for the NES and Gameboy, and the WarioWare series. All of these Mario spinoffs have a fair share of at least gaining 10+ million in total sales. Their reasons for Smash playability made sense. Compared to Captain Toad: Treasure Tracker, this one spinoff series had only been established years ago and only gained 1/10th of that sweet Mario spinoff success.

That is 1/10th of the total sales of the entire Paper Mario series. Despite Paper Mario nearing 10 million in sales, it has yet to gain a playability status, despite high demand for Paper Mario and massive moveset potential PM could offer in Smash (Bigger moveset potential than Captain Toad IMO), even after the series had huge amount of content in Brawl and Smash 4. What does this mean for Captain Toad's chances? It means his chances of getting in are pretty low.

I believe that when it came time to consider characters gaining recent appearances for established franchises for Smash Switch, Captain Toad was likely considered for the game. The main reason why I think the idea of Captain Toad will be passed off is because Sakurai will likely identify Captain Toad as a Mario spinoff character rather than a Mario character because of the Toad's newly established series. Because his spinoff series has yet to gain critical and/or massive sales success, I think Sakurai will reject Captain Toad for playability.

This is NOT about Captain Toad's fanbase's idea of representing all Toads in the Mario series. This is judging based on the success and critical acclaim of the Captain Toad spinoff series itself. So what if Sakurai views Captain Toad as a Mario character? Well, let us reconsider stuff like Rosalina and Bowser Jr., who have gained notably more major appearances in recent Mario games for the 3DS, Wii U, and Switch and marketing push. Does Captain Toad have that? To an extent, but not in the same massive degree as both characters with the Toad's minor roles in Galaxy/Odyssey, his somewhat major role in 3D World, and main role in Treasure Tracker.

Unless this character is promoted to a high level like Isabelle in Animal Crossing and Rosalina in Mario, the chances of Nintendo highly recommending Sakurai to add Captain Toad in Smash is really low. Isabelle, in particular, had appeared playable in Mario Kart 8 and as a Mii costume in Smash 4 likely due to promotional push. Does Captain Toad get similar treatment? Not to the extent of Isabelle, which indicates to me that Nintendo nor Sakurai have the intention of seriously pushing Captain Toad for marketing future Mario games and adding him in Smash 4 or Smash Switch.

Unless the Captain Toad spinoff game for the Switch gets a miraculously financial and critical success to the same extent to at least Dr. Mario, I doubt we will be seeing his inclusion anytime soon. If Paper Mario could not get in despite having the sales and moveset potential, Captain Toad will not either. This character will likely be judged on his own merits of the Mario spinoff success, rather than judging based on the degree of appearances and 'representing Toads' in recent Mario games.

I think Sakurai holds a high standard for Mario spinoff characters when being considered for playability in Smash. If it is a Mario spinoff that is not of the same degree of success of WarioWare and Yoshi's Island games, why bother considering for playability? That is what I imagine. And unfortunately for Captain Toad, I believe he will have to have to achieve way much more than getting a new spinoff game in order to be playable in future Smash games to come.

Everything I explain here is why I have never been optimistic about Mario characters like Waluigi, Daisy, and Paper Mario during Smash 4 and Smash Switch's speculation. I am reminded of Pic of the Day when in Smash Bros. Miiverse, Sakurai revealed Waluigi's AT role in the Pic of the Day. His deliberate quote of "Just because you try hard doesn't mean you'll make it into the battle.", although the words he say are mostly joking, rings to me that adding Mario characters in Smash are of a tighter criteria. As someone who wanted Waluigi, but did not expect his playability, I understood something that day. If Waluigi could not make into battle with his notable lack of marketing push (like Rosalina) and having his spinoffs despite having an EXTREMELY likable personality and charisma, no other Mario character will come to join Smash either. Neither will Captain Toad for this Smash installment for the Switch.

If you have something to argue against this. I would like to hear it. A heated, open debate is always welcome for me.

I am very curious to hear supporters' and YoshiandToad 's perspective on my perspective.

 

[ssbashworld]

Feeling lazy today, will maybe edit in explanations later.

Captain Toad

Chances: 75%
Want: 85%

Pauline

Chances: 50%
Want: 60%

Nomination: Itsuki Aoi X5

 

[Shyy_Guy595]

What you're forgetting is that Captain Toad was a character in almost all of the critically acclaimed games of a more recent era, regardless of playability (look at Rosalina, and even 3D World has both as playable). His game was also on a console that barely succeded those games you mentioned in sales so his game getting as much as DK: TF and even close to the newer FE games is a VERY impressive feat on what was a dead console in the eyes of many.

We're also forgetting those cjaracters are nostalgic and retro at this point. Captain Toad, Rosalina, and Bowser Jr. all represent Mario's newer ages and their successful attempts at keeping a new character actually mainstream whilst having a decent fanbase behind each of them.

The sales debate also didn't matter much before. FE in Japan didn't even reach a million even in Brawl's days, last I heard, yet we had Ike and still kept Marth, who was orginally planned for the 64 version to begin with.

All in all, I see no reason the sales impact a character who had his game debut on a failure of a console.

 

[BluePikmin11]

What you're forgetting is that Captain Toad was a character in almost all of the critically acclaimed games of a more recent era, regardless of playability (look at Rosalina, and even 3D World has both as playable). His game was also on a console that barely succeeded those games you mentioned in sales so his game getting as much as DK: TF and even close to the newer FE games is a VERY impressive feat on what was a dead console in the eyes of many.

We're also forgetting those characters are nostalgic and retro at this point. Captain Toad, Rosalina, and Bowser Jr. all represent Mario's newer ages and their successful attempts at keeping a new character actually mainstream whilst having a decent fanbase behind each of them.

The sales debate also didn't matter much before. FE in Japan didn't even reach a million even in Brawl's days, last I heard, yet we had Ike and still kept Marth, who was originally planned for the 64 version to begin with.

All in all, I see no reason the sales impact a character who had his game debut on a failure of a console.

Rosalina and Bowser Jr. represent the critically acclaimed games of Galaxy and NSMB quite adequately IMO.

The appearances of Captain Toad made thus far have been minor aside from 3D World and Treasure Tracker. Would not Captain Toad represent 3D World and Treasure Tracker moreso to Sakurai? Even so, the significance of his appearance in those games does not compare to the number of playable roles Rosalina has appeared in several recent past Mario games anyway.

I personally believe the situations of adding FE and Mario characters are different because Fire Emblem in particular regularly got new characters due to mainly promotional purposes (and the potential they have as a fighter, of which Robin and Corrin fit that bill nicely). You could say adding FE characters is more of a coincidental deal than Mario, focusing less worry on merit, and more on who would be cool as a fighter due to the uprising, game-changing sales of Fire Emblem: Awakening. It also happens to be Sakurai's favorite Nintendo series as well.

I feel the Mario series and its spinoffs are judged differently from FE due to the reasons stated in my original post. With Mario already having massive representation, would adding Captain Toad be essential, considering that push of the character and the spinoff series sales are less than a 10th of Dr. Mario game sales? I do not think so. I think Sakurai would rather explore other series for other unique potential fighters, unless it becomes a last-minute clone deal like Dr. Mario. But Captain Toad would not be fit for cloning development anyway, right?

 

[MacDaddyNook]

But that's the thing; no one is saying "Bandana Dee/Captain Toad aren't the protagonists of enough games" they're saying "they're generic" whilst we have Yoshi being depicted in the Melee opening being just one of many Yoshi, being depicted in every adventure mode Smash has had with his variant colours as just one of many Yoshis, and even in some of those games Yoshi isn't treated as an individual just as one of many.
Heck, everyone's favourite Yoshi game, Yoshi's Island, has him in rotation for the stages with every other colour Yoshi.

He's my favourite video game character but I can't help but think you can't point at Bandana Dee and Captain Toad, characters whom have their own identities and individual abilities and quirks and say generic and then look at Yoshi and say "Yup, he's not generic".

I agree with you, Yoshi is absolutely guilty of being just as generic. I was simply stating the only difference I could think of to why they have given Yoshi a free pass.

 

[Depressed Gengar]

Quite frankly, the whole "they're part of a generic species" argument screams "fan rule assumed to be real". We've never heard Sakurai dismiss characters for said reason as far as I understand and we've even seen numerous characters break the "rule".

... Even ignoring that, applying it to Bandana Dee and Captain Toad is just because they're a part of a generic species is ridiculous when they're distinct characters regardless of their connections to a species.

 

[Shyy_Guy595]

FE literally has 9 million sale units total. Almost a fourth of that comes from the recent games that netted over a million while the rest come from the vast amount of 200,000 or at the very least 50,000 FE games.

Also, you've all claimed Sakurai bias before but if what you say is true, he holds some bias for FE as well, which only hurts FE even more IMO. Mario has only one mainstream character left and Captain Toad represents the best of that species. Not to mention, in total, he's about as popular as a single lors from one of the critically acclaimed FE games if we go by sales, as I don't think Captain Toad sold a million total over Wingo or Shy Guys (as much as I'd love for it to ne the latter given they are my favorite minions). Mario is the biggest franchise and a Toad is the single most iconic character left (and most popular of the Mario characters we have left) that hasn't been in Smash yet. Captain Toad already has ideas for a moveset sans jumping while rehular Toad would need even more thought and creativity to think up. Heck, we may even habe a Composite Toad that combines both that people want.

You vastly underestimate just how impressive a million is for a spin-off of a completely different character from Mario himself. Especially on a failing console that sold 13 mil at best, something the Metroid series in total rivals and even beats out. Heck, a few others series like Metroid and Star Fox barely reach above 3 million for a single game. Like I said, I doubt sales are of any importance, even considering the 3DS and Switch ports will only increase the total sales of the game, likely making it surpass FE and maybe even get in the 2 million range.

When SEGA tried it with Shadow, a fan favorite character, the game got such poor reception, even if decent sales, that SEGA completely revamped the franchise to be "Sonic only" and look where it is. A state of limbo where each game released is either good or bad, with few in between.

Bowser Jr. should represent Sunshine if anything, which was the poorest selling 3D Mario, last I checked, and it was his starring role. Granted, the NSMB series did well, but more so for the nostalgia factor and what a major cash cow it was.

Captain Toad originated in a well-recieved game and has gone on to be in even more. Toad himself has a perfect attendance in spin-offs and I feel that's only because people would complain "we didn't need another Toad" or "Why'd he replace Toad?!" should the Cap'n replace the generic fungi or star in a game with him, if they even ARE seperate. Using Rosalina is a poor example when she's an NPC in Galaxy given a playable role in 3D World just like Captain Toad. Also unlike her, he's one of the few Mario characters to have gotten their own game. Sure, Rosalina has more of a story role, but that doesn't mean they both didn't star in the same game to go on to prove successes as characters.

Waluigi? Likeable, a meme, but purely a spin-off character. Daisy? Most consider her an "Orange Peach" and she's had one game that wasn't a spin-off. Slightly more relevant than Waluigi by a short hair. Paper Mario is Captain Toad's only real competition to be honest, as he checks off just as much and is "anothet Mario" just as much as Captain Toad is "another Toad".

At this point, Captain Toad is the only unique Toad in the mainstream games, and his prominent appearances may as well make him one of the main cast at this point, with even more mainstream appearances than Rosalina herself (who got a cameo in Odyssey in the form of a sprite), while Captain Toad was integral for completing the game in some cases and had a 3D model.

 

[Troykv]

FE literally has 9 million sale units total. Almost a fourth of that comes from the recent games that netted over a million while the rest come from the vast amount of 200,000 or at the very least 50,000 FE games.

Also, you've all claimed Sakurai bias before but if what you say is true, he holds some bias for FE as well, which only hurts FE even more IMO. Mario has only one mainstream character left and Captain Toad represents the best of that species. Not to mention, in total, he's about as popular as a single lors from one of the critically acclaimed FE games if we go by sales, as I don't think Captain Toad sold a million total over Wingo or Shy Guys (as much as I'd love for it to ne the latter given they are my favorite minions). Mario is the biggest franchise and a Toad is the single most iconic character left (and most popular of the Mario characters we have left) that hasn't been in Smash yet. Captain Toad already has ideas for a moveset sans jumping while rehular Toad would need even more thought and creativity to think up. Heck, we may even habe a Composite Toad that combines both that people want.

You vastly underestimate just how impressive a million is for a spin-off of a completely different character from Mario himself. Especially on a failing console that sold 13 mil at best, something the Metroid series in total rivals and even beats out. Heck, a few others series like Metroid and Star Fox barely reach above 3 million for a single game. Like I said, I doubt sales are of any importance, even considering the 3DS and Switch ports will only increase the total sales of the game, likely making it surpass FE and maybe even get in the 2 million range.

When SEGA tried it with Shadow, a fan favorite character, the game got such poor reception, even if decent sales, that SEGA completely revamped the franchise to be "Sonic only" and look where it is. A state of limbo where each game released is either good or bad, with few in between.

Bowser Jr. should represent Sunshine if anything, which was the poorest selling 3D Mario, last I checked, and it was his starring role. Granted, the NSMB series did well, but more so for the nostalgia factor and what a major cash cow it was.

Captain Toad originated in a well-recieved game and has gone on to be in even more. Toad himself has a perfect attendance in spin-offs and I feel that's only because people would complain "we didn't need another Toad" or "Why'd he replace Toad?!" should the Cap'n replace the generic fungi or star in a game with him, if they even ARE seperate. Using Rosalina is a poor example when she's an NPC in Galaxy given a playable role in 3D World just like Captain Toad. Also unlike her, he's one of the few Mario characters to have gotten their own game. Sure, Rosalina has more of a story role, but that doesn't mean they both didn't star in the same game to go on to prove successes as characters.

Waluigi? Likeable, a meme, but purely a spin-off character. Daisy? Most consider her an "Orange Peach" and she's had one game that wasn't a spin-off. Slightly more relevant than Waluigi by a short hair. Paper Mario is Captain Toad's only real competition to be honest, as he checks off just as much and is "anothet Mario" just as much as Captain Toad is "another Toad".

At this point, Captain Toad is the only unique Toad in the mainstream games, and his prominent appearances may as well make him one of the main cast at this point, with even more mainstream appearances than Rosalina herself (who got a cameo in Odyssey in the form of a sprite), while Captain Toad was integral for completing the game in some cases and had a 3D model.

I agree with the Kinopio is the probably the most iconic playable characters in Nintendo that aren't already in Smash Bros.

The only reason I'm not sure if Captain Toad is a "most-likely than not" character is because I don't know how Sakurai would feel making a character based on the Toads unique.

 

[PeridotGX]

Paul Leen

Odds- 20%. She could happen, but I see other Mario characters happening first.

Wants: 10%. I don't want her, but I wouldn't mind her being in.

Cap 10 Frog

50%. Probably the most Likely Mario character. But he has his own hurdles to jump.

Wants- 60%. I want to see what they could do with him.

Nominations: Kamek x4, Marx x1.

 

[ShinyRegice]

But what if Pauline used Cappy?....

Stop trying to influence the votes that’s a bad idea.


To make this post not a waste, for more of the schedule I could potentially do double days of characters that are related, albeit I might do it sparingly. The game plan would be to combine days 18 and 19 and days 20 and 21. However that could leave us with a gap. As such, I have a few options.

A) Two Most Nominated Characters/concepts get days before the end of the month
B) I undemocraticly choose two new ideas or ideas off the noms list that I find interesting.
C)Put all noms into an random number gen and get two days.
D) Do Nothing, the schedule is nice.
E) We do a stage day in which I take stage related ideas and concepts and y’all rate them. My idea is a day of rating New Donk City, Frozen Fruits, and Sr388 and a day of rating Ultra Space, Neo Los Angeles, and Great Plateau.


Let me know which you all would prefer.

Option A gets my vote. The initial schedule is a nice way to start the game, but the nomination list will grow big during this period, and I feel that we don't need to strive for arbitrarily decided replacements to make sure the initial schedule duration lasts as long as initially decided.

I don't like option C, although it would probably mean that the more nominations something has the higher the chances are that it'll get selected by the RNG, it would also remove less nominations per day than with the usual "take whatever has the most nominations" route and would likely cause the list to grow to ridiculous proportions. Being able to roughly anticipate which things will be rated in the next few days thanks to the nomination list is also something I appreciate, and the option C would go against that.

I also wonder how we'll do double days. The Smash Switch pre-release era is going to be shorter than that of Brawl and for 3DS/Wii U, so we'll have to do some compression in order to have a rich enough catalogue of things to have been rated. Assuming current schedule modified with option A and then only single days until E3, we would have the time to rate about 100 different things until the big event. We could also start double days sooner, possibly as soon as the initial schedule end, in order to have rated the most things possible so if we get reveals before E3 then they have a maximum chance of already having been rated - I personally don't expect us to hear anything about Smash before E3 but I could be wrong on that so we must be prepared.

Also we should have a schedule for special days for the period around E3, but I guess it's too early to discuss about it right now.

 

[BluePikmin11]

Sales do not equal character popularity my man. It would be like saying Chrom is more popular than any of the Awakening characters when in reality Lucina is the queen of popularity for Awakening.

If being playable in Treasure Tracker and 3D World means he is a significant character to the Mario franchise, then why does he not frequently appear in recent Mario Sports and Party spinoffs like Rosalina? This is all the more reason why I think Sakurai will treat Captain Toad and Toad differently and judge the character by the Captain's own merits. Treasure Tracker and the side-quests in 3D World gave the character a distinguishable identity from the original Toad thanks to how the Treasure Tracker gameplay greatly differed from the main Mario game. Why would Sakurai think Captain Toad and Toad are the same thing at that point and add Toad's importance to the Mario series as a benefactor? I do not see that thought process coming across naturally for Sakurai. The statements just do not correlate.

 

[YoshiandToad]

I am very curious to hear supporters' and YoshiandToad 's perspective on my perspective.

Thanks for the special shoutout Blue, it's been a while!

Sales aren't usually the sort of thing we discuss as many believe it has little to do with the character selection(I don't neccesarily agree, I think they want characters who do sell as well as the obscures) but it's worth having a short look;

While I do agree Captain Toad has yet to hit the high peaks of Warioware and Yoshi, I think it's also fair to note that as of this time of writing his game was released on one of the worse selling Nintendo consoles. Clearly Nintendo thinks the game has some merit if it's being put on both 3DS and Switch as well(a bit like Hyrule Warriors actually), and I'll be very interested to see how Treasure Tracker does on these more popular systems.

I suppose when it comes to sales it's all relevant; Captain Toad's 1.41m sales may seem tiny, but it was on the Wii U, a unit that in total only sold 13.5m.

Mario Kart 8 only sold 8.40m units and was the most sold game on the Wii U compared to the Wii's far more impressive 37.02m, and even Mario himself didn't do as well as usual with 5.75m sales for Super Mario 3D World(although it's worth noting Captain Toad's levels featured in this with enough fan demand for Nintendo to make the spinoff to begin with).

For comparison's sake we'll look at the other Mario spinoff stars and how they did; Donkey Kong Country: Tropical Freeze, often stated as the fourth biggest franchise made a more comparable 1.71m sales, Yoshi's Wooly World 1.51m sales and Wario did a grand total of 0.25m for Game and Wario. Paper Mario Colour Splash sold 0.86m.

Captain Toad's beating Wario and Paper Mario at least on the Wii U.

Captain Toad should be noted to have surprsingly also outsold (the frankly brilliant) Hyrule Warriors. This is a side note, I'm just genuinely shocked by this one even as a Toad fan.

What does this all mean for Captain Toad and his chances? Well...probably nothing honestly. However if he could sell that well in his debut on the worst selling console Nintendo's ever had to the extent he's keeping up with long established fan favourite Yoshi and outperforming Wario, all whilst half the world seems to hate him because of his voice, it's going to be interesting to see how he reperforms when he hits the far bigger audience of 3DS and Switch owners.

 

[pupNapoleon]

I'm greatly offended that these characters are being polled together.

 

[zipzapsparkle]

I'm greatly offended that these characters are being polled together.

Why?

 

[Shyy_Guy595]

I literally said why he's likely not in the spin-offs. Do you really think they'll risk it after Mario Kart 8's criticisms?

Also, I'm aware sales don't equal popularity, but when you're the titular character and face of that particular series, I'd assume a pretty big following comes from that, as people who don't buy either won't know who either character is, and even then, the name is in the title, which would make his name known to those who simply gloss over the game titles.

Compare this to Lords that switch every game as well as lots of competion for favorites in FE itself, and Cap. T has far less going against him which helps that popularity.

Doesn't help that Lucina is popular for simply being a girl, if you catch my drift. As I've not seen a single person claim she's got an interesting and relatable character. In fact, I've hears nothing but "bland" to describe her from people who care about more than breasts.

 

[TCT~Phantom]

I'm greatly offended that these characters are being polled together.

 

[pupNapoleon]

Why?

Because no one else has been listed together.

It implies the two alone do not deserve to be polled individually.

...and since we are doing a new character each single day, that's quite a statement.
We really cannot just give each of them their own day? Toad is possibly the most recognizable video game character not yet in Smash.

Yeah... exactly. It's my opinion. That's literally the point of posting.
Unlike yours... which is just to be critical of my on-topic comment.

 

[BluePikmin11]

Thanks for the special shoutout Blue, it's been a while!

Sales aren't usually the sort of thing we discuss as many believe it has little to do with the character selection(I don't neccesarily agree, I think they want characters who do sell as well as the obscures) but it's worth having a short look;

While I do agree Captain Toad has yet to hit the high peaks of Warioware and Yoshi, I think it's also fair to note that as of this time of writing his game was released on one of the worse selling Nintendo consoles. Clearly Nintendo thinks the game has some merit if it's being put on both 3DS and Switch as well(a bit like Hyrule Warriors actually), and I'll be very interested to see how Treasure Tracker does on these more popular systems.

I suppose when it comes to sales it's all relevant; Captain Toad's 1.41m sales may seem tiny, but it was on the Wii U, a unit that in total only sold 13.5m.

Mario Kart 8 only sold 8.40m units and was the most sold game on the Wii U compared to the Wii's far more impressive 37.02m, and even Mario himself didn't do as well as usual with 5.75m sales for Super Mario 3D World(although it's worth noting Captain Toad's levels featured in this with enough fan demand for Nintendo to make the spinoff to begin with).

For comparison's sake we'll look at the other Mario spinoff stars and how they did; Donkey Kong Country: Tropical Freeze, often stated as the fourth biggest franchise made a more comparable 1.71m sales, Yoshi's Wooly World 1.51m sales and Wario did a grand total of 0.25m for Game and Wario. Paper Mario Colour Splash sold 0.86m.

Captain Toad's beating Wario and Paper Mario at least on the Wii U.

Captain Toad should be noted to have surprisingly also outsold (the frankly brilliant) Hyrule Warriors. This is a side note, I'm just genuinely shocked by this one even as a Toad fan.

What does this all mean for Captain Toad and his chances? Well...probably nothing honestly. However if he could sell that well in his debut on the worst selling console Nintendo's ever had to the extent he's keeping up with long established fan favourite Yoshi and outperforming Wario, all whilst half the world seems to hate him because of his voice, it's going to be interesting to see how he reperforms when he hits the far bigger audience of 3DS and Switch owners.

Well, we will have to see how heavily Captain Toad gets promoted this year in Mario games before I can glance at the real possibility of Captain Toad happening in Smash. And also the sales for both versions of Treasure Tracker. All of these are the same key things that made Rosalina fans excited about the possibility of Rosalina in Smash 4 back when Rosalina was confirmed playable for 3D World, and thus it happened when the next Smash reveal came forth a month (I believe that was the timespan) later. But again, it's still uncertain how Captain Toad will be treated by Nintendo despite getting the re-releases. Time will tell.

I literally said why he's likely not in the spin-offs. Do you really think they'll risk it after Mario Kart 8's criticisms?

Also, I'm aware sales don't equal popularity, but when you're the titular character and face of that particular series, I'd assume a pretty big following comes from that, as people who don't buy either won't know who either character is, and even then, the name is in the title, which would make his name known to those who simply gloss over the game titles.

I think they would if they tried to add Captain Toad in Mario Kart 8, by this point, every Nintendo fan would know Captain Toad for the puzzle game spinoff series and be ok with the inclusion. There is likely no risk if he does get pushed hard, especially when Toadette is treated by people as separate and that was hardly complained on. But that notable playability has yet to happen.

 

[zipzapsparkle]

Because no one else has been listed together.

It implies the two alone do not deserve to be polled individually.

...and since we are doing a new character each single day, that's quite a statement.
We really cannot just give each of them their own day? Toad is possibly the most recognizable video game character not yet in Smash.


Yeah... exactly. It's my opinion. That's literally the point of posting.
Unlike yours... which is just to be critical of my on-topic comment.

That’s an interesting perspective.

I think the opposite, i’d like more double days. Actually I’d like if every day was double days. We don’t have as much time, if this game is releasing this year. E3 is like 50 some days away and there’s like 50+ characters to rate.

 

[BluePikmin11]

That’s an interesting perspective.

I think the opposite, i’d like more double days. Actually I’d like if every day was double days. We don’t have as much time, if this game is releasing this year. E3 is like 50 some days away and there’s like 50+ characters to rate.

Hopefully, everyone manages to pull through and research each character we rate that could be possible for Smash for a fair perspective this time. The more you know, the better set expectations are set for you and for the potential Smash Switch roster.

It is good to have the big fanbase and supporters back again, but we should discuss more openly so we can avoid a reaction disaster like Ridley's de-confirmation and Bayonetta's reveal as the top ballot candidate chosen for the last Smash 4 DLC character. It is better to not repeat the same cycle.

 

[Icedragonadam]

Yeah I agree. Double days everyday is much better considering the short time span of SSB6's(Wii U is technically 5) release compared to last game's.

 

[Shyy_Guy595]

Funnily enough, Toadette's existence provides more support for Regular Toad being the Captain because they're often paired together, and guess who was Captain Toad's partner?

Either way, I doubt we'll see both Captain Toad and plain Toad in a spin-off together. Mario and Peach they can get away with because "the more Mario the better". But with three Toads? That will likely net backlash since people are still salty Ninty is including clones in everything. Outside of Smash, there's barely anything that will distinguish Captain Toad from Toad. In the sports games he'll have to use the sports items with maybe the pickaxe being a special. Also an issue of stats. By his own character, he's a regular Toad, but slower and can't jump. The spin-offs at least stay true to characters and most of them require the cast to jump.

Too many variables going against him for spin-offs that he doesn't have in Smash, which is the only place that can actually do him justice since more obscure movesets have been made. Also, being playable in a mostly platformer series almost always requires each character to jump.

Though I guess you have your points. We'll see.

Personally, I don't see why he can't use his pickaxe to propel himself forward with a flip or something. But that's for Nintendo to figure out. Heck, a propeller cap or jetpack may even work.

 

[Llort A. Ton]

Daily Double! Ladies first!

Pauline- 15%
I only see Pauline becoming a character INLY if these 2 conditions are met;
1. Mario keeps his exact moveset from Brawl/4, with NO new moves based around Odyssey
2. We get A LOT of new characters. Enough to warrant an oddball like Pauline in the game.
Pauline is an important character, but has only become popular very recently. Shes also in line behind other characters fans may deem more deserving like Waluigi, Geno, Daisy, Captain Toad, and the almighty THWOMP.

Want- 30%
Her moveset could prove interesting, but if she gets in over Waluigi I would be upset.

The Fun Guy Himself
Chance- 65%
I see him and Bandanna Boy on even footing. Not that to say theyre generic, far from it, but there are more requeated characters. Hes on the rise of popularity over the years, and had his own game with sales rivaling Donkey Kong and Bayonetta 2 on a system that flopped big time. I could easily see him in being in, but like Dee, has a few other characters ahead of him (not too many, tough)

Want- 70%
I think he would be a fun character to play. Also, Treasure Tracker is better than 3D World. Change my mind.


Takumaru- 37.89%

Banjo Kazooie X 3
Doomguy X 2

 

[BluePikmin11]

Personally, I don't see why he can't use his pickaxe to propel himself forward with a flip or something. But that's for Nintendo to figure out. Heck, a propeller cap or jetpack may even work.

So something like this?:

 

[Xenigma]

Doesn't help that Lucina is popular for simply being a girl, if you catch my drift. As I've not seen a single person claim she's got an interesting and relatable character. In fact, I've hears nothing but "bland" to describe her from people who care about more than breasts.

Okay, I've gotta step in here as a Lucina fan. "Bland," if anything, is Chrom as the bargain-bin Ike. Lucina represents the turn in Awakening's storyline that actually makes the plot remotely interesting, and even if her character is largely a plot device to bring Robin's story full circle, she's perhaps the most memorable part of the game and has become a fan-favorite by proxy. That she happens to be female has virtually nothing to do with what makes her a good character, and it's a shame if you're missing that because of the worse parts of the FE fandom.

 

[Shyy_Guy595]

Lol

Sonething like that

 

[zipzapsparkle]

Pauline is an interesting case. She’s a heavily requested character for games like Mario Kart 9 and such so she’s not exactly unpopular. Yet for smash I’ve seen people categorize her under Toad, Waluigi, and Daisy.

 

[Shyy_Guy595]

Okay, I've gotta step in here as a Lucina fan. "Bland," if anything, is Chrom as the bargain-bin Ike. Lucina represents the turn in Awakening's storyline that actually makes the plot remotely interesting, and even if her character is largely a plot device to bring Robin's story full circle, she's perhaps the most memorable part of the game and has become a fan-favorite by proxy. That she happens to be female has virtually nothing to do with what makes her a good character, and it's a shame if you're missing that because of the worse parts of the FE fandom.

To be honest, I've already heard what she represents and who she is. Doesn't interest me, personally.

Pauline is an interesting case. She’s a heavily requested character for games like Mario Kart 9 and such so she’s not exactly unpopular. Yet for smash I’ve seen people categorize her under Toad, Waluigi, and Daisy.

So the exact opposite of Captain Toad.

 

[BandanaWaddleDee]

Pauline
Chance: 5%
There's at least 5 Mario characters more likely than her. She just recently returned, and she wasn't even a fighting figure in that game. I don't see it happening.
Want: 10%
I like her, but not enough to want her in Smash

Captain Toad
Chance: 90%
Aside from an ARMS character and Rez, this is the character I expect the most. We're undoubtedly getting a new Mario character, and I can't see anyone being more likely than Captain Toad
Want: 90%
Heck yeah. I love Captain Toad. He has one of the best Wii U games, and I'd love to play as him in Smash

Takamaru prediction
Chance: 29.45%

Nominations
Greninja x2
Sonic x2
Toon Link x1

 

[Xenigma]

To be honest, I've already heard what she represents and who she is. Doesn't interest me, personally.

That's fine, I'm not going to pretend she's the best character ever either. I'd just ask you refrain from needlessly insulting a character's fanbase like that, because it's petty and helps no one.

 

[CAPTOAD45MA5H]

Pauline:

Chance: 3% - Don’t really know why she’s even considered. No offence to any Pauline fans.

Want: 0% - Not my ideal character to want for Smash.

Captain Toad:

Chance: 100% - Seriously overdue in my opinion, Whether it is the Captain or your normal Toad.

Want: 100% - Might be incredibly biased but whatever, I saw this post and specifically made this account to post my thoughts about Captain Toad. I want so god damn much.

#CaptainToad45ma5h

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

Couple of things;

Please do not double post. Edit your messages instead.

Try to keep on-topic. Random off-topic banter adds nothing to the discussion. There's nothing wrong with a little discussion, but make sure you're still rating characters too.

 

[BluePikmin11]

On the subject of Pauline, I personally think Pauline's upgraded role opens the gate for her playability, that she might be pushed as hard for mainline and spinoff Mario games to come. For what she specifically represents now with Odyssey and the successful arcade Donkey Kong, it would not be surprising if Nintendo decided to push her more for playable roles, very much like Rosalina. However, like Captain Toad, that has not happened yet. We will have to see how and if Pauline and Captain Toad will be in Nintendo's big Switch marketing campaign for 2018 if the possibility of playability will truly light on fire.

 

[Shyy_Guy595]

That's fine, I'm not going to pretend she's the best character ever either. I'd just ask you refrain from needlessly insulting a character's fanbase like that, because it's petty and helps no one.

Alright. That's fair enough, I guess. There's been petty-er in this thread though.

Of course, I also believe Lucina should be made into an alt and that FE should get no more than the number of characters it alread has so I guess I'm biased.

On topic:

Pauline

Chance: 30%

In all honesty, she checks off popularity, relevancy, and iconic status.

The only issues are her competition, lack of an easy-to-create moveset, and the fact she still hasn't been playable.

Want: 15%

While I like her character and song, I'm not exactly THAT fond of her as of right now.

 

[Xenigma]

Alright. That's fair enough, I guess. There's been petty-er in this thread though.

Of course, I also believe Lucina should be made into an alt and that FE should get no more than the number of characters it alread has so I guess I'm biased.

I actually agree (there's really no need to have her take up a second slot when she's barely differentiated from Marth) and will be happy to discuss this more once it's Lucina's day, which I'm hoping will be sooner rather than later.