Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[Z25]

As optimistic most people feel how good Captain Toad's chances are, I feel the complete opposite of that spectrum. The thing I will not argue is his moveset potential. Based on the positive moveset arguments given in today's RTC, I do think there is enough to work with Captain Toad, there is enough provided to spark Sakurai's imagination out of. However, the problem I have with him is his significance and representation to the Mario series as a whole.

Captain Toad established his own series in Treasure Tracker after his minor role in the Galaxy games and his bigger role in Super Mario 3D World. The game can definitely be considered a minor success in terms of Mario spinoffs, given the 1 million+ units sold on the Wii U. With his minor role appearing yet again for Mario Odyssey and a re-release of Treasure Tracker for the Switch soon, it seems like Captain Toad is closer than ever to having a playable status. Well, here is the biggest issue. The problem is that his spinoff series is not significant enough for him to warrant that status.

Consider all the Mario characters in the Smash 4 roster. Mario, Luigi, Peach, Bowser are the main representatives. Then we get to the characters like Rosalina and Bowser Jr. Given their major appearances in best selling games like NSMB Wii and Super Mario Galaxy and pushes in marketing for Wii U and 3DS Mario games years ago, their playability in Smash 4 is no surprise. Now we get to the characters from the Mario spinoffs like Dr. Mario, Donkey Kong, Diddy Kong, Wario, and Yoshi.

What do all of the Mario spinoff characters share in common? Their spinoff games shared massive financial successes and critical acclaim in games like SMW: Yoshi's Island 2, the Donkey Kong Country Trilogy, Dr. Mario for the NES and Gameboy, and the WarioWare series. All of these Mario spinoffs have a fair share of at least gaining 10+ million in total sales. Their reasons for Smash playability made sense. Compared to Captain Toad: Treasure Tracker, this one spinoff series had only been established years ago and only gained 1/10th of that sweet Mario spinoff success.

That is 1/10th of the total sales of the entire Paper Mario series. Despite Paper Mario nearing 10 million in sales, it has yet to gain a playability status, despite high demand for Paper Mario and massive moveset potential PM could offer in Smash (Bigger moveset potential than Captain Toad IMO), even after the series had huge amount of content in Brawl and Smash 4. What does this mean for Captain Toad's chances? It means his chances of getting in are pretty low.

I believe that when it came time to consider characters gaining recent appearances for established franchises for Smash Switch, Captain Toad was likely considered for the game. The main reason why I think the idea of Captain Toad will be passed off is because Sakurai will likely identify Captain Toad as a Mario spinoff character rather than a Mario character because of the Toad's newly established series. Because his spinoff series has yet to gain critical and/or massive sales success, I think Sakurai will reject Captain Toad for playability.

This is NOT about Captain Toad's fanbase's idea of representing all Toads in the Mario series. This is judging based on the success and critical acclaim of the Captain Toad spinoff series itself. So what if Sakurai views Captain Toad as a Mario character? Well, let us reconsider stuff like Rosalina and Bowser Jr., who have gained notably more major appearances in recent Mario games for the 3DS, Wii U, and Switch and marketing push. Does Captain Toad have that? To an extent, but not in the same massive degree as both characters with the Toad's minor roles in Galaxy/Odyssey, his somewhat major role in 3D World, and main role in Treasure Tracker.

Unless this character is promoted to a high level like Isabelle in Animal Crossing and Rosalina in Mario, the chances of Nintendo highly recommending Sakurai to add Captain Toad in Smash is really low. Isabelle, in particular, had appeared playable in Mario Kart 8 and as a Mii costume in Smash 4 likely due to promotional push. Does Captain Toad get similar treatment? Not to the extent of Isabelle, which indicates to me that Nintendo nor Sakurai have the intention of seriously pushing Captain Toad for marketing future Mario games and adding him in Smash 4 or Smash Switch.

Unless the Captain Toad spinoff game for the Switch gets a miraculously financial and critical success to the same extent to at least Dr. Mario, I doubt we will be seeing his inclusion anytime soon. If Paper Mario could not get in despite having the sales and moveset potential, Captain Toad will not either. This character will likely be judged on his own merits of the Mario spinoff success, rather than judging based on the degree of appearances and 'representing Toads' in recent Mario games.

I think Sakurai holds a high standard for Mario spinoff characters when being considered for playability in Smash. If it is a Mario spinoff that is not of the same degree of success of WarioWare and Yoshi's Island games, why bother considering for playability? That is what I imagine. And unfortunately for Captain Toad, I believe he will have to have to achieve way much more than getting a new spinoff game in order to be playable in future Smash games to come.

Everything I explain here is why I have never been optimistic about Mario characters like Waluigi, Daisy, and Paper Mario during Smash 4 and Smash Switch's speculation. I am reminded of Pic of the Day when in Smash Bros. Miiverse, Sakurai revealed Waluigi's AT role in the Pic of the Day. His deliberate quote of "Just because you try hard doesn't mean you'll make it into the battle.", although the words he say are mostly joking, rings to me that adding Mario characters in Smash are of a tighter criteria. As someone who wanted Waluigi, but did not expect his playability, I understood something that day. If Waluigi could not make into battle with his notable lack of marketing push (like Rosalina) and having his spinoffs despite having an EXTREMELY likable personality and charisma, no other Mario character will come to join Smash either. Neither will Captain Toad for this Smash installment for the Switch.

If you have something to argue against this. I would like to hear it. A heated, open debate is always welcome for me.

I am very curious to hear supporters' and @YoshiandToad 's perspective on my perspective.

Sales do not equal character popularity my man. It would be like saying Chrom is more popular than any of the Awakening characters when in reality Lucina is the queen of popularity for Awakening.

If being playable in Treasure Tracker and 3D World means he is a significant character to the Mario franchise, then why does he not frequently appear in recent Mario Sports and Party spinoffs like Rosalina? This is all the more reason why I think Sakurai will treat Captain Toad and Toad differently and judge the character by the Captain's own merits. Treasure Tracker and the side-quests in 3D World gave the character a distinguishable identity from the original Toad thanks to how the Treasure Tracker gameplay greatly differed from the main Mario game. Why would Sakurai think Captain Toad and Toad are the same thing at that point and add Toad's importance to the Mario series as a benefactor? I do not see that thought process coming across naturally for Sakurai. The statements just do not correlate.

When your the only character playable in that game, (lets be honest toadette is basically the same), then of course sales go towards popularity. Captain Toad upon reveal received a lot of praise and sold pretty well considering how bad the Wii U was. I'm also betting that the switch port and 3ds port will sell quite well.

I think Captain Toad's popularity is being under estimated here. He showed up in a lot of ballot polls and seemed to do well. Also I'm positive he's playable in Aces. Anyway, moveset potential seems to be the biggest focus for Sakurai, and due to this I think that it definitely helps his chances.

On top of that, Toad was already decently requested and this is the perfect way to handle both. I believe that with these ports, Captain is going to be pushed hard. He's a super easy character to market and people love Mario Characters.

Right now I view him exactly like Rosalina. Debuted the same game, both have their own storylines going on while Mario does his thing, and both got pretty popular over time. The Toad Brigade and Captain right now feel like what Bandanna Dee is to Kirby, an ally providing Mario with what he needs to complete his quest, while also joining in it. The Brigade travels the world adventuring just like Mario and they even showed up again in Odyssey. I fully believe Nintendo thinks the Toad brigade are characters that should show up and do stuff in the latter Mario Titles. I would not be surprised if they wanted Sakurai to help push the character more while also adding a super unique and easy to market character.

On top of that it would not surprise me if CT was given the Corrin treatment and put in as easy lowkey advertisement. I think CT would rep a new ERA for Mario Spinoffs/characters and will open the door to future Mario spinoffs based on characters that get introduced. ( Although this probably won't be for some time). Regardless CT would be a good choice for repping modern mario characters outside of Mario himself. Alhough I see Bowser Jr. less as a modern character, more of "Ive been in like every freaking Mario game since they made me, put me in Smash!" and he had good popularity. He's definitely inspired by his origins though, well NSMB ones anyway. Rosalina I do think Rep's Galaxy but not as a modern thing, more the moveset changes that Galaxy bought since Mario himself wasn't getting updated and they wanted more female characters/Rosalina was in the spotlight. I honestly think Rosalina started to get pushed because Nintendo wanted to make more of an icon of her as they wanted more female representation. Plus it may not be unlikely that they thought she'd be cool for Smash, but we'll probably never know for sure.

To sum things up basically, I think CT is fairly likely and is starting to become what Rosalina did. Only time will tell but I really think he has good odds and could very easily become playable to due his status right now and how unique he truly is and would probably be easier to do than Waluigi or Paper Mario( but that's for another discussion)

 

[BluePikmin11]

That is not exactly arguing against the spinoff series argument, but that is fine. And I kind disagree on representation aspect and Captain Toad being equal as Bandanna Dee, since CT getting a spinoff is a sign for the character having a notable future to come. I feel less positive about Dee in that regard, despite being advertised as a 'legacy character' in Star Allies. But you know, maybe I should not feel that doubtful about CT, but then again, I do not like speculating based on the hypothetical. I would like to see the bigger marketing pushes with my own two eyes first. Starting with who will become playable in Mario Tennis Aces as unlockable characters.

 

[Z25]

That is not exactly arguing against the spinoff series argument, but that is fine. And I kind disagree on representation aspect and Captain Toad being equal as Bandanna Dee, since CT getting a spinoff is a sign for the character having a notable future to come. I feel less positive about Dee in that regard, despite being advertised as a 'legacy character' in Star Allies. But you know, maybe I should not feel that doubtful about CT, but then again, I do not like speculating based on the hypothetical. I would like to see the bigger marketing pushes with my own two eyes first. Starting with who will become playable in Mario Tennis Aces as unlockable characters.

Well In terms of the spinoff argument, I see him as a limbo character. Sure he has a spin-off but at the same time he’s had a consistent role in every mainline Mario title. Another thing I find worth noting is that his port was announced before a Mario maker one. Sure most(myself included) expected both to be ported but I expected to see Mario Maker first and I’m kind of surprised we haven’t. I wouldn’t be surprised if we don’t see anything with maker until after CT releases at this point so that they can avoid losing sales. I also want to bring up that CT is different then every other port we have seen announced for Switch, as it’s also on 3ds. This to me means a lot for his chances. Sure the 3ds works well with the controls of CT, but I don’t think that’s why it’s there as several other ports could have probably made it to 3ds as well if they wanted. The fact that Nintendo wants CT on both their big sellers( and only systems at this point) is a huge step up for CT imo. I believe this means they really want to capitalize on the sales they can make so the character gets the time to shine that they think he deserves. I believe Nintendo really loves the character and because of that they will move forward trying to make him a new Mario icon.

 

[MrRoidley]

Pauline
Chance: 10%
Not really sure, especially considering how she isn't playable (yet) in any Mario game... She could factor in as an Assist Trophy though

Want: 20%
I absolutely adore her but I don't see any moveset potential. Let's give it some years and more appearances though!

Captain Toad:
Chance: 60%
Out of all Mario characters him and Waluigi are the most likely I believe, but I'm a bit skeptical. Plus Captain Toad isn't exactly the most popular spinoff even though it sold well

Want: 100%
A Toad character is long overdue, and Captain Toad is the best option

 

[BluePikmin11]

Well In terms of the spinoff argument, I see him as a limbo character. Sure he has a spin-off but at the same time he’s had a consistent role in every mainline Mario title. Another thing I find worth noting is that his port was announced before a Mario maker one. Sure most(myself included) expected both to be ported but I expected to see Mario Maker first and I’m kind of surprised we haven’t. I wouldn’t be surprised if we don’t see anything with maker until after CT releases at this point so that they can avoid losing sales. I also want to bring up that CT is different then every other port we have seen announced for Switch, as it’s also on 3ds. This to me means a lot for his chances. Sure the 3ds works well with the controls of CT, but I don’t think that’s why it’s there as several other ports could have probably made it to 3ds as well if they wanted. The fact that Nintendo wants CT on both their big sellers( and only systems at this point) is a huge step up for CT imo. I believe this means they really want to capitalize on the sales they can make so the character gets the time to shine that they think he deserves. I believe Nintendo really loves the character and because of that they will move forward trying to make him a new Mario icon.

That is a very fair argument, especially with noting the emphasis of the 3DS port. I did not actually think about how the two ports would make for a notability of dedication from Nintendo. I suppose I can see CT being more possible, but I am still waiting for the Mario spinoff appearances and marketing pushes to come before I can feel really confident about playability like with Rosalina supporters before her reveal in Smash 4.

Now I am a bit more open about his chances. I appreciate the open discussion here from supporters SO MUCH! This is a satisfying Smash speculation conversation to participate in. With the different viewpoints, it helped me view Captain Toad from an interesting more positive perspective.

 

[andimidna]

If I had to take a random shot in the dark, I’d guess Pauline’s best odds would actually be DLC, especially if Mario isn’t notably reworked. Even if it’ll be further from Oddessey’s release. I certainly don’t think she’s top priority, but I really like what they’ve done to use her character, and it seems very easily fittin for future Mario games. I could see cityscapes as a regular Mario world staple in platforms and 3D games alike from here on out. Once she’s seen more playable appearances, like in Mario Tennis and whatever the next Mario game after that is, I think it’ll seem more feasible and realizable.

 

[DaUsername]

Pauline
Chance: 5%
Want: 1%

Capitan Todd
Chance: 60%
Want: 50%
I'll probably give my reasonings later.

Takamaru Prediction: 64%
Noms: Crash Bandicoot x5

 

[Mighty Moose]

Pauline
Chance: 2%
She doesn't even do anything in her first game for 30 years come on dudes. Maybe her popularity will help though?

Want: 0%
She doesn't even do anything in her first game for 30 years come on dudes. No moveset potential and several Mario characters would be significantly more interesting

Captain Toad
Chance: 55%
He'd be a bit weird to implement a moveset for with his no jump and minimal weapons used in his game, but he is fairly popular and one of the most notable potential Mario reps

Want: 50%
Really no strong feelings either way except i'd rather normal Toad with moves from 2D Mario + 3D World

 

[colder_than_ice]

Captain Toad
Chance: 35% - Toad has always been one of the most famous Mario characters and Treasure trackers turned out to be a pretty big success. He gets my vote for most likely new Mario character, although he still faces steep competition from the likes of Waluigi, Daisy, and Paper Mario.
Want: 100% - One of my most wanted characters for SSB5.

Pauline
Chance: 5% - She's an iconic character to Mario's history, I'll give her that much.
Want: 20% - I'll accept it, but there's a lot of other characters I'd prefer.

Takamaru prediction: 47%

Nominations: New story mode x5

 

[Smasher 101]

I showed up about 10 minutes too late last night, so just for the record, I would have given Bandana Dee a 40% chance and a 50% want.

Pauline
Chance: 5%

This might be a bit generous, honestly. An appearance of some sort is assured, and I could even see an assist trophy, but I can't see her being playable. She has history, yeah, but I don't recall her being brought up much prior to Odyssey, and I'm doubtful that that her role in that was enough.

Want: 0%

I actually quite like Pauline and was happy when she showed up in Odyssey. And if she continues to appear more often I might be open to her getting her shot in a future Smash. But I'm not ready for her yet.

Captain Toad
Chance: 40%

As a warning, I personally won't be giving very many newcomers 50%+ scores this time, but I do think he has a decent shot and is definitely the most likely Mario character. Toad in general is arguably one of the most important Nintendo characters not yet playable in Smash Bros., this version of him has gotten some importance of his own recently, and his game did pretty well considering exactly what system it's on. The ports also definitely help. I think I don't have him higher simply because Toad never got in before and I'm not sure if Sakurai will like this idea more, but I certainly think he has a shot.

Want: 60%

Honestly the only potential Mario newcomer I have any interest in. Even then there's plenty of other characters from elsewhere that I'm more interested in, but I do like Captain Toad and his game, he has some solid potential, and there's no denying that Toad's pretty iconic, so I'd be fine with his inclusion.

Takamaru prediction: 36.28%

Nominations: Jibanyan x5

 

[Starcutter]

I just wanna say that I really underestimated how likely people thought Captian Toad was.

I guess it makes sense though, with him making notable appearances since galaxy and his game is getting new ports. I just thought more people would gravitate to other mario characters for some reason.

 

[Deleted member]

I just wanna say that I really underestimated how likely people thought Captian Toad was.

I guess it makes sense though, with him making notable appearances since galaxy and his game is getting new ports. I just thought more people would gravitate to other mario characters for some reason.

Honestly, I think he's the likeliest Mario newcomer left despite not giving him that high of a rating compared to other users here.

 

[Starcutter]

Honestly, I think he's the likeliest Mario newcomer left despite not giving him that high of a rating compared to other users here.

I'd personally give that edge to Waluigi this time, but I now consider them to be pretty close.

I'd go into more detail but I don't want to spam this thread.

 

[Z25]

I just wanna say that I really underestimated how likely people thought Captian Toad was.

I guess it makes sense though, with him making notable appearances since galaxy and his game is getting new ports. I just thought more people would gravitate to other mario characters for some reason.

to be fair the only ones left are basically laughed off by Sakurai. He made it very clear he doesn’t feel like making waluigi playable and I don’t see that changing. He’s barely given daisy any time of day and she has less to work with then waluigi imo. Paper Mario despite being popular is also mostly ignored in smash. Which is a shame as I would love at least a stage for him. Captain Toad seems to at least stand above the other choices for now so I think that plays into people wanting him.

 

[BluePikmin11]

I want us to avoid a situation where I feel stingy about a character getting in like Robin and Rosalina, just because of how out of the blue their reveals were. The more open the discussion, the better we improve as speculators. This day of rating was surprisingly great.

 

[Al-kīmiyā']

Captain Toad want: 0%

Pauline want: 0%

Nominations:

Fire Emblem Spear User x5

 

[Starcutter]

to be fair the only ones left are basically laughed off by Sakurai. He made it very clear he doesn’t feel like making waluigi playable and I don’t see that changing. He’s barely given daisy any time of day and she has less to work with then waluigi imo. Paper Mario despite being popular is also mostly ignored in smash. Which is a shame as I would love at least a stage for him. Captain Toad seems to at least stand above the other choices for now so I think that plays into people wanting him.

Uh.... Paper Mario DID have a stage in smash 4.... It was on 3DS and I could see it coming back for the switch version.

I also think the whole "Just because you try hard" thing in the Pic of the Day was Sakurai acknowledging the demand for him, in a quirky way. I could be wrong. After all, the inner machinations of Sakurai's mind are an enigma....

(This is going to be my last post about this here because I don't want the Rate Their Chances thread filled with spam)

 

[Organization XIII]

Paper Mario despite being popular is also mostly ignored in smash. Which is a shame as I would love at least a stage for him. Captain Toad seems to at least stand above the other choices for now so I think that plays into people wanting him.

It did have a stage it was on the 3ds and was based on the blight on the franchise. Also I'm not sure it's Sakurai but rather Nintendo as a whole( or at least Intelligent Systems) who don't seem to prioritize PM. Even though the PM series and the M&L series are very different Intelligent Systems decided that they needed to be differentiated. Since then PM has been trying to rediscover itself, and maybe until it regains it's footing Sakurai doesn't want to put it in Smash. I mean SS was complete garbage and while CS was very good it was immediately hated for the similarities to SS without most people even trying it. A shame really. But that's all conjecture on my part.

 

[a smart guy]

Pauline
Chance: 1% I just don't see any moveset potential. We already have Rosalina filling in the older female Mario character role.
Want: 0% No thanks

Captain Toad:
Chance: 45% The not being able to jump thing is concerning, but can be worked around. He does have his own game under his belt, plus appearances in mainstream Mario titles. He's not a shoe-in, but I wouldn't be surprised if he got in.
Want: 80% I would like him. He has a cowardly, but adventurous personality, kind of like Luigi. I can see some interesting stuff done with him, and would be happy to see him

Prediction: Takamaru 38%

Nominations: Chibi-Robo x5

 

[jamesster445]

Pauline
Chance-50%
Want- 25%
Not rooting for it, but I may be surprised.

Captain Toad
Chance- 50%
Want- 50%
Wouldn't mind a toad, but there are other Mario characters that should get top billing first.

Nominations- Waluigi x5

 

[Opossum]

"Bland," if anything, is Chrom as the bargain-bin Ike.

I'd just ask you refrain from needlessly insulting a character's fanbase like that, because it's petty and helps no one.

Might wanna take your own advice there, fwiw. Potshots aren't fun.
Especially considering Chrom's personality is nothing like Ike's.

 

[Z25]

Uh.... Paper Mario DID have a stage in smash 4.... It was on 3DS and I could see it coming back for the switch version.

I also think the whole "Just because you try hard" thing in the Pic of the Day was Sakurai acknowledging the demand for him, in a quirky way. I could be wrong. After all, the inner machinations of Sakurai's mind are an enigma....

(This is going to be my last post about this here because I don't want the Rate Their Chances thread filled with spam)

I don't know, that post convinced me he doesn't care for Waluig, but Sakurai really is hard to understood so I guess it could go either way.

It did have a stage it was on the 3ds and was based on the blight on the franchise. Also I'm not sure it's Sakurai but rather Nintendo as a whole( or at least Intelligent Systems) who don't seem to prioritize PM. Even though the PM series and the M&L series are very different Intelligent Systems decided that they needed to be differentiated. Since then PM has been trying to rediscover itself, and maybe until it regains it's footing Sakurai doesn't want to put it in Smash. I mean SS was complete garbage and while CS was very good it was immediately hated for the similarities to SS without most people even trying it. A shame really. But that's all conjecture on my part.

I completely forgot about that stage.... I haven't played the 3ds one in awhile and I didn't like the gimmicks for the stage. Especially that horrible Bowser's castle part so it wasn't on my mind. I suppose that's fair but we definitely deserve a better stage for PM.

I don't know if IS is the reason for his exclusion but I think the point about him being left out to the series is back in full form could actually make sense.

 

[DNeon]

Pauline

Chance: 2%

I mean, sure she's a very likely AT but let's be real she aint competing.

Want: 10%

So many better options, especially in the Mario-verse. But hey at least her design is alright?

Captain Toad

Chance: 40%

I don't think he's too likely. Nintendo's definitely pushing for him to be an important Mario character currently, but I think he'll run into some issues with 'accurate representation' since he can't jump. Also he's from a heavily populated franchise that's already well represented and has a couple other viable characters.

Want: 80%

I did love Treasure Tracker, and obviously the more the merrier when it comes to more iconic characters (like finally getting a Toad). I'd also be quite interested to see what they can pull off with his moveset.

Takamaru Prediction: 41.35%

Nominations:
5x Andy

 

[Xenigma]

Might wanna take your own advice there, fwiw. Potshots aren't fun.
Especially considering Chrom's personality is nothing like Ike's.

Making fun of a character is very different from making fun of the actual fans, and I really don't see the need to re-open this off-topic conversation when @Shyy_Guy595 and I have moved on. If you want to discuss Chrom's merits in particular, I'd be happy to do so on his rating day in a little over a week.

 

[Opossum]

Making fun of a character is very different from making fun of the actual fans, and I really don't see the need to re-open this off-topic conversation when @Shyy_Guy595 and I have moved on. If you want to discuss Chrom's merits in particular, I'd be happy to do so on his rating day in a little over a week.

I'm not trying to derail the thread. I'm just saying it came out of nowhere, is all.

 

[Xenigma]

I'm not trying to derail the thread. I'm just saying it came out of nowhere, is all.

That's fine, I will admit I could have chosen my words better. I'd just rather leave the discussion where it had been left, especially since we already had a mod post a warning for off-topic posting.

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Captain Toad
85% Chance

The stars are honestly aligned for Captain Toad for an appearance in smash. He is increasingly relevant within the Mario series. I honestly was shocked we didn’t get him in Mario Kart 8 Deluxe since we have a Toad model already. He just needs to start appearing in the spin offs for him to be 100% in the future. The fact that he has appeared in the Galaxy games, 3D world, and Odyssey is impressive, he even got his own spinoff. I feel he is the best choice for a composite Toad due to his unique appearance. Also his no jumping could be explained away by packing light lol.
100% Want
Honestly I love toads, they are so cute. I love their loud voices and playing as them in he spinoffs. Treasure Tracker was a cute lil game, was glad to see it get ported. Honestly it’s just a cute character I would love to see get falcon punched across the stage.

Pauline
55% Chance
I have seen some people be sure negative toward Pauline in terms of moveset. I have two words: use Cappy. Literally much like Rosalina taking parts of Galaxy that Mario didn’t incorporate into a moveset Pauline could use Cappy. It may not be faithful but Zelda and Ness use moves that are not in their canon movesets. Pauline may be too soon to tell but we just do not know. I honestly feel she is slightly more likely than not as Odyssey was such a success and we know there will be odyssey content to promote the switch.
100% Want
I want more females in the game. Honesty Pauline would be a great choice, as Nintendo’s first leading lady. Seeing a reveal trailer of her and Cappy to jump up super star would be so hype and make me smile. I would love both suit Pauline and dress Pauline to be costumes, being able to have a final smash of the final music show in odyssey would be awesome. Having all sorts of mayhem with her would be so hype.

Nominating No Cuts x 5

Now unfortunately, the noms list will not be updated today, I did not get my internet back today :/, but it will be updated tomorrow even if I have to squat at the library or reach out for help.

Day Over, will calculate electoral results in the morning since there was so much discussion about these two, hang tight until then. Please don’t jump up super stars and start rating Takamaru yet.

 

[Kitty-chan]

Pauline

Chance: 5%
I can imagine her as a background character in a new donk city stage mew, but nyot as a playable character nya. Zero faith in her chances mew.

Want: 0%
She's just a background character in my eyes nya, I'd prefer to see Waluigi or Daisy (or both of course) nya. If she were to become playable somehow, I'd give her a fair chance of course nya, because nyu never nyo.


Captain Toad

Chance: 50%
Nyot sure, but has the support and has his own game nya

Want: 60%
Mushrooms remind me of atomic bombs nya, definitely a plus. Plus he has a pixaxe nya!

 

[Deleted member]

I’m a little late on Bandana Dee but let me give my thoughts on all these characters.

Bandana Dee

Chance: 89%
Fourth most important character in Kirby has appeared in various titles since his debut and has even appeared in recent games. Was a popular vote in the old smash ballot. Has a huge fan support.

Want: 100%
This little spear wielding ball of orange and warrior spirit is my favourite character in Kirby might not play it much but thanks to him and and the pink puff it’s won me over. He’s got a spear a parasol and a lot of heart deserves a shot should get in. Plus look at the moveset potential has tons of it.

Pauline
Chance: 10%
Waluigi and Daisy have been requested for so long, they should be considered way before her.

Want: 5%
That said I absolutely adore her and she’s such a fun character hope she makes more appearances in future Super Mario games. I’d love to see what they could do with a moveset but doubt they will do anything!

Captain Toad

Chance: 20%
He may have a lot of an opportunity but I don’t see it.

Want: 50%
This maybe a biased option because Super Mario Odyssey is my favourite game. But I’d love too see him with not being able to jump who knows but we’ll see.

 

[Troykv]

Now unfortunately, the noms list will not be updated today, I did not get my internet back today :/, but it will be updated tomorrow even if I have to squat at the library or reach out for help.

Thanks! It started to feel wrong having the same noms list since the Sunday.

 

[CodeBlue_]

Day 7 + 8 Statistics (Three characters in one!!!!!!!! I'm so tired ;-; )
Trying to do statistics for three characters at once almost killed my computer today lol. Without further ado....

Day 7: Bandanna Waddle Dee
Number of entrants: 83 (1 abstained from Chance)
Chance:
Mean: 56.45%
Standard Deviation: 23.95%
Outliers (+/- 2 SD from Mean): <9%

Thoughts: Click this link link to see a full rant about Bandanna Dee's chances~
So people think the dee has a higher chance of getting in then King K. Rool and Ridley, eh? I kinda agree somewhat, but this turned out a little closer than I expected. I thought K. Rool would have some momentum from the ballot to go with, where Bandanna Dee has absolutely no representation in Smash 4. At least K Rool has a Mii costume... Data was mostly consistent with most entrants at around 50-80% with only one person voting above 90% and only 5 voting below 10%.

Want:
Mean: 71.42%
Standard Deviation: 29.13%
Outliers (+/- 2 SD from Mean): <13%

Thoughts: Wow, Bandanna Dee the second highest want average of a newcomer so far, second to King K. Rool! That deserves a high-five! The difference was also pretty close to K rool (1.5%), so it's probably almost equal considering K. Rool had fewer entrants (thus having higher variability). 28/81 people putting him between 90-100% is pretty strong for a newcomer.

Day 8 (1 of 2): Pauline
Number of entrants: 84 (2 abstained from Chance, 2 abstained and 1 removed from Want)
Both of her statistics have over half of the entrants voting her below 10%. Take that as you will.
Chance:
Mean: 10.80%
Standard Deviation: 13.91%
Outliers (+/- 2 SD from Mean): >38% (well then)

Thoughts: I completely shift the blame for this choice to Phantom. He is the one person that is above 50 (at 55%) and I respect his confidence for her as a character. If Sakurai wanted to use her with Cappy, I would be more than down. Let it be know now, however that if Pauline is confirmed as a playable character, I will make all of my profile and signature images Pauline and have "Phantom was right" in my signature. I don't expect to vote any new characters lower than her right now lmao.

Want:
Mean: 20.03%
Standard Deviation: 27.2%
Outliers (+/- 2 SD from Mean): >74%

Thoughts:

People really like other Mario reps over Pauline. I do have some issue with the "Pauline takes from other Mario characters" argument. My personal top choice for mario reps is Paper Mario, but I feel both have the potential to be interesting characters. Once again, Phantom's idea for Pauline using Cappy would be pretty cool. plus we need more waifus...how old is Pauline anyway?

Day 8 (2 of 2): Captain Toad
Number of entrants: 86 (1 abstained from Chance)
Chance:
Mean: 48.60%
Standard Deviation: 22.88%
Outliers (+/- 2 SD from Mean): <4% and >94%

Thoughts: A relatively similar distribution to Bandanna Dee, in that none of us know what the **** Sakurai has planned for the new roster. Comparisons to Bandanna Dee are pretty apt, with most people worrying about concerns of notability. I'm going to specifically mention BluePikmin11 's really good post about why he doubts Captain Toads inclusion. In hindsight, it really had me doubt my 50/50 choice with the character. Let's see how Sakurai views the promoted Toad in the future~


Chance:
Mean: 58.15%
Standard Deviation: 30.51%
Outliers (+/- 2 SD from Mean): No Outliers

Thoughts: #CaptainToad45ma5h. Captain Toad has a bimodal distribution, with a high number of voters voting either 40-50% or 90-100%. High numbers at all three points (bottom, middle, and top) and a standard deviation that covers 0-100% within 2 standard deviations is pretty indicative of Captain Toad's mixed approval. But seriously, shoutouts to the guy who created his account today just to vote for Captain Toad at 100% chance. That's some dedication

Rip the legend 2018-2018

Please do double characters on a weekend next time. I can't do something like this again, ty x_x

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Day 7 + 8 Statistics (Three characters in one!!!!!!!! I'm so tired ;-; )
Trying to do statistics for three characters at once almost killed my computer today lol. Without further ado....

Day 7: Bandanna Waddle Dee
Number of entrants: 83 (1 abstained from Chance)
Chance:
Mean: 56.45%
Standard Deviation: 23.95%
Outliers (+/- 2 SD from Mean): <9%

Thoughts: Click this link link to see a full rant about Bandanna Dee's chances~
So people think the dee has a higher chance of getting in then King K. Rool and Ridley, eh? I kinda agree somewhat, but this turned out a little closer than I expected. I thought K. Rool would have some momentum from the ballot to go with, where Bandanna Dee has absolutely no representation in Smash 4. At least K Rool has a Mii costume... Data was mostly consistent with most entrants at around 50-80% with only one person voting above 90% and only 5 voting below 10%.

Want:
Mean: 71.42%
Standard Deviation: 29.13%
Outliers (+/- 2 SD from Mean): <13%

Thoughts: Wow, Bandanna Dee the second highest want average of a newcomer so far, second to King K. Rool! That deserves a high-five! The difference was also pretty close to K rool (1.5%), so it's probably almost equal considering K. Rool had fewer entrants (thus having higher variability). 28/81 people putting him between 90-100% is pretty strong for a newcomer.

Day 8 (1 of 2): Pauline
Number of entrants: 84 (2 abstained from Chance, 2 abstained and 1 removed from Want)
Both of her statistics have over half of the entrants voting her below 10%. Take that as you will.
Chance:
Mean: 10.80%
Standard Deviation: 13.91%
Outliers (+/- 2 SD from Mean): >38% (well then)

Thoughts: I completely shift the blame for this choice to Phantom. He is the one person that is above 50 (at 55%) and I respect his confidence for her as a character. If Sakurai wanted to use her with Cappy, I would be more than down. Let it be know now, however that if Pauline is confirmed as a playable character, I will make all of my profile and signature images Pauline and have "Phantom was right" in my signature. I don't expect to vote any new characters lower than her right now lmao.

Want:
Mean: 20.03%
Standard Deviation: 27.2%
Outliers (+/- 2 SD from Mean): >74%

Thoughts:

People really like other Mario reps over Pauline. I do have some issue with the "Pauline takes from other Mario characters" argument. My personal top choice for mario reps is Paper Mario, but I feel both have the potential to be interesting characters. Once again, Phantom's idea for Pauline using Cappy would be pretty cool. plus we need more waifus...how old is Pauline anyway?

Day 8 (2 of 2): Captain Toad
Number of entrants: 86 (1 abstained from Chance)
Chance:
Mean: 48.60%
Standard Deviation: 22.88%
Outliers (+/- 2 SD from Mean): <4% and >94%

Thoughts: A relatively similar distribution to Bandanna Dee, in that none of us know what the **** Sakurai has planned for the new roster. Comparisons to Bandanna Dee are pretty apt, with most people worrying about concerns of notability. I'm going to specifically mention BluePikmin11 's really good post about why he doubts Captain Toads inclusion. In hindsight, it really had me doubt my 50/50 choice with the character. Let's see how Sakurai views the promoted Toad in the future~


Chance:
Mean: 58.15%
Standard Deviation: 30.51%
Outliers (+/- 2 SD from Mean): No Outliers

Thoughts: #CaptainToad45ma5h. Captain Toad has a bimodal distribution, with a high number of voters voting either 40-50% or 90-100%. High numbers at all three points (bottom, middle, and top) and a standard deviation that covers 0-100% within 2 standard deviations is pretty indicative of Captain Toad's mixed approval. But seriously, shoutouts to the guy who created his account today just to vote for Captain Toad at 100% chance. That's some dedication

Rip the legend 2018-2018

Please do double characters on a weekend next time. I can't do something like this again, ty x_x

I will hold you to that mate.

Scores
Pauline
10.80% Chance
20.03% Want

Captain Toad
48.60% Chance
58.15% Want

Pauline’s scores are the lowest so far, spelling doom for relection. Maybe if peoples thought of her using Cappy she could have done better. Captain Toad however seems to have been by a hair more likely than K Rool, although he is a hair less wanted than Isaac.

On to lighter pastures, today we shall discuss Takamaru in Chance and want, will his mii costume and assist trophy aid him? Furthermore predict the scores for Rayman tomorrow.

Will tag people for noms in the morning.

 

[Al-kīmiyā']

That's some dedication

It shows something.

 

[NintenRob]

Takamaru
Chance 37%
A popular choice for retro, but there are lot of choices for retro, and he's still not as well known as some others out there and he doesn't stand out much being a sword fighter
Want: 45%
Pretty neutral. Not sure what of interests he brings to the table to make him stand out from the other sword fighters in the game .

Nominate Skull Kid x5

Prediction
Rayman 48%

 

[Icedragonadam]

Takamaru

Chance: 60%

Want: 70%

The fact that Takamaru was considered to be playable and the mii costume gives him a much better edge here as being the most likely retro character

Prediction

Rayman: 45.75%

Nomination

Lloyd Irving x5

 

[Z25]

I will hold you to that mate.

Scores
Pauline
10.80% Chance
20.03% Want
Captain Toad
48.60% Chance
58.15% Want

Pauline’s scores are the lowest so far, spelling doom for relection. Maybe if peoples thought of her using Cappy she could have done better. Captain Toad however seems to have been by a hair more likely than K Rool, although he is a hair less wanted than Isaac.

On to lighter pastures, today we shall discuss Takamaru in Chance and want, will his mii costume and assist trophy aid him? Furthermore predict the scores for Rayman tomorrow.

Will tag people for noms in the morning.

To be fair mario could easily be using cappy since we saw link is redesigned after host latest appearance and because of that many people weren’t sure if Pauline could do anything because if Mario has cappy Pauline likely wouldn’t get him making her much harder to make a fighter.

 

[TCT~Phantom]

To be fair mario could easily be using cappy since we saw link is redesigned after host latest appearance and because of that many people weren’t sure if Pauline could do anything because if Mario has cappy Pauline likely wouldn’t get him making her much harder to make a fighter.

To be fair tho BotW Link is likely just a new skin rather than a revamp, I doubt any of the original 12 will get a major revamp at this point to the level of Cappy Mario.

 

[PreedReve]

Takamaru
Chances: 50%
Want: 50%
I've never played The Mysterious Murasame Castle, so I can't really say much about the character but he and the game seem to have some kind of rapport with fans, seeing Nintendo likes to add him as easter eggs or as a character in their work.

Rayman Perdiction
Chances: 76%
Want: 89%

Edit: Forgot to add Noms

Noms
x2 Chibi-Robo
x2 Style Savvy Rep
x1 Mallo

 

[AwesomeAussie27]

Takamaru

Chance: 50%

This is a brand new Smash game and Sakurai's one reason for putting Takamaru down is no longer an issue since The Mysterious Murasame Castle came to the West around the time Smash 4 came out. Sure the cameos like Samurai Warriors 3 and Nintendo Land are irrelevant, but they still don't mean any less as far as his notability. He's an Assist Trophy and a Mii Fighter costume, which wouldn't really hurt him knowing two other characters made the jump (Inklings and Little Mac).

So I'd say it's a coin flip as far his chances. The only real competition he's got so far as Balloon Fighter (a very well known retro that happens to have missed the boat many times) and Mach Rider (who's got a workable design at least, but issues with the bike). I would say things are good in his favor.

Want: 100%

I never really thought about how badly this character was needed for Smash until Brawl. Just the fact that he is this samurai who also happens to be a jack of all trades with deadly danmaku projectiles and inability sounds awesome enough. I doubt I can name a single Nintendo swordsman that can get this over the top until I played and beat the game for myself four years ago. I feel that now is the time for him to face his Eurocentric long eared brother again.

Prediction

Rayman: 40%

Nominations: Tsubasa Oribe x5

 

[Ura]

The Samurai Guy (No i'm not talking about Sakurai lol)

Chance: 35%

Taka was considered in the past installment so that alone ups his chances. With that being said i'm iffy if he'll be added in.

Want: 30%

Mainly because I would prefer other retro's over him like Andy (yes I consider him retro) and Mike Jones. Despite that, Taka's would be moveset looks pretty cool.

Prediciton: Rayman

Chance: 48%
Want: 57%

Nominations

Andy X 2
Concept: Advance Wars CO X 2
Masked Link X 1