Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[JamesDNaux]

Takamaru

Chance: 80%

If we get another Little Mac (ascended assist trophy), Takamaru is wahn of the only choices.

Want: 100%

Link, Samus, Pit, Takamaru. It was meant to be.


Missed Pauline, would've given her a high chance but all of that overwhelmingly extreme negativity drove me off.

 

[Yomi's Biggest Fan]

Takamaru

Chance: 48%

Being Japan only is no longer an issue anymore when the game had a Western release not too long ago. That's one major factor going for him. As of now, it's more of a matter of whether he would stay as an Assist Trophy or not. But if we look at Little Mac, he could simply get a promotion if Sakurai sees enough potential in him as a fighter.

Do we have an Eastern swordsman yet? No. That's why he would easily stand out amongst the countless European swordsmen we have. Other than his other weapons like the fireballs, invisibility cloak, Inazuma Thunder, whirlwind blades, throwing knives (or shirukens depending on the adoption), and the various shogi pieces that affect the way he throws his weapons (Bishop, Rook, and King). So there is enough strategy in which you can choose the ways you want to use your projectiles (3 forward, 4 in all surrounding directions, or 3 in a spread shot), just like in the game. Not to mention his ability to block and deflect attacks with his blade.

Won't ignore the fact that he has other competition with other retros. He's definitely in a better position than the Japan only ones like Ayumi Tachibana or Goku, but would really be competition with the likes of Balloon Fighter and Mach Rider. Even then, predicting a retro can be hard since we failed to predict Duck Hunt the last time, who would eventually be our Smash 4 retro.

Want: 100%

If I haven't stressed this enough, Takamaru is without a doubt my most wanted character for Smash. Yes, even more than the likes of King K Rool. He's got a great design, his game was one Famicom title that was worth multiple playthroughs, and he's got some good potential as a Smash fighter. The day I get him would be the day I can be completely satisfied with Smash.

Wouldn't be awesome to see him face off against Pit, Samus, and Link in four player battles? That is something that would be worth experiencing one day.

Prediction

Rayman: 42%

Nominations: Sans x5

 

[ThatShadowLink]

Takamaru:

Chances: Coin flip (50%)

I genuinely thought Takamaru's time to shine was with Smash 4, but alas, I was thrown a massive curveball. Takamaru is the protagonist of the cult classic Famicom game The Mysterious Murasame Castle. While he had tons of fans in his homeland of Japan, including one Hideki Kamiya, he had few in the West as his game was never released internationally.

Takamaru started appearing in Western released games with a sticker in Brawl and a reimagining of his original game in Samurai Warriors 3. However, his first major exposure to the West was arguably in Nintendo Land through Takamaru's Ninja Castle. After that he started to gain more notoriety as many people were confused as to what the hell this franchise was even doing there in a major hallmark release like Nintendo Land. Thus, more people were aware of him, and now with his major announcement as an Assist Trophy in Smash 4 and the release of his original game outside of Japan, he's on a level playing field with other contenders.

The reason I think it's still a coinflip is Takamaru was considered twice as far as we know. Once for Melee, and again for Smash 4. Sakurai's officiai reasoning as to why he was eventually not chosen for 4 is because he was landlocked to Japan, and relatively unknown outside of the really hardcore Nintendo fans at that point. His move of putting Takamaru in as an Assist Trophy likely made Nintendo release the game outside of Japan, and as such, has fulfilled the goal of making Takamaru much more known around the world. Still, I say we cannot predict what Sakurai will do. I was hopeful last time and uh, I got the Duck Hunt Duo.

Want: 100%

I've been a fan of Takamaru for years, ever since Samurai Warriors 3. I fell in love with his rich design, and once I discovered he was from a long lost Nintendo game, it only made me even more interested. I believe Takamaru could be a unique addition to the cast, as not only do we have no Eastern swordsmen, he has an entire arsenal of weaponry from his own game (on the level of The Legend of Zelda) to make him unique and not just boil down to using his sword. He would use his sword in a draw-and-sheath style contemporary of a Samurai.

If we get a redesign of Takamaru for the modern era, just like Pit got, I have no doubt that it would look stunning. Takamaru's re-design for Samurai Warriors 3 still remains my favorite design of his, but if he was updated to look even more sleek, it would be even better.

Also, why not complete the holy 1986 four of The Legend of Zelda, Metroid, Kid Icarus, and Murasame Castle? Even Sakurai did it in Takamaru's AT announcement. It was so powerful that he had to quell it with "(FYI [Takamaru is] an Assist Trophy)".

Nominations: Shin Megami Tensei Protagonist (The Hero, Demi-Fiend, or Flynn) x5

 

[andimidna]

Takamaru:
I picture him being more reliant on his projectiles than just his sword. I remember seeing some interesting concepts for him back before Smash 4. The devs had the creativity to make Pit in Brawl out of so little, so I have total faith. The only weird thing to me is that he straight up talked about wanting to include Takamaru. Was this a way to give the character more exposure and get people interested, or was that a nail in the coffin in his head? At the time, Smash for the Switch wasn't a thing, so I'm assuming neither. It is interesting that we got to hear him talk about Chrom and Takamaru though. I could easily see this being a situation like when Sakurai discussed meaning to add Marth to Smash 64... I think that happened? Well, the general concept has happened multiple times throughout the series's progression.
Chance: 67%
I'm giving him the edge over what I gave Cpt Toad just because he had literally been planned before. Some characters need/ have needed a mindset change to make it- Villager & Ridley. He just needs everything to stay the same, and it hasn't been very long.
Want: 90%
I don't know what his gimmick would be or if he'd be fun. I think he had something going on with invisibility in his games? Maybe I'm crazy. Either way, I just kinda wanna be right, bc I told ppl that didn't even know who he was that he'd totally be in it lmao

Rayman prediction: 38%

x4 Midna
x1 Azura

 

[PeridotGX]

Tack: A Maru.

Odds: 70%. Most likely Retro, in my opinion. Retros are still unpredictable.

Wants: 20%. I've never played his game, but he seems cool.

Nomanations: Marx x 4, Kamek x 1.

 

[Troykv]

Well well... This the kind of character I'm actually sort of expecting to be in the game

Takamaru

Chance: 70%

Probably one of the few characters that we have solid bases to believe he would appear in the next games that aren't just speculation, but also actual facts from Sakurai himself (considered for Brawl and Smash 4, was scrapped because of "Japan-Only" status, and that status is already irrelevant)... so, it's probably the only Non-Veteran Character that I would give a chance rate above 50%

I don't put him higher because priorities are still a thing against him

Want: 70%

Well, he looks cool, and it would like to play as ninja-samurai... that sounds like a strange combination xD.

___

Predicitons: Rayman: 35.7%

Nominations: Micaiah (Fire Emblem) x5

 

[CodeBlue_]

Tako mako

Chances: 55%

He fits Sakurai's recurring "obscure retro rep" and could have a similar Little Mac promotion from Asisst Trophy. I honestly feel he has a higher chance, but I can't exactly guarantee he will be playable this time around.

Want: 100%

I'll play Nazo no Murasume Jo music non-stop the day he's revealed. He feels like such a hype character. As Shipwright Franky said, "All men are obsessed with ninjas". Oh wait he's a Samurai. Well, Wano is coming up in One Piece, so Takamaru would make me that much more hype for it. Definitely my #2 most wanted newcomer to Bandanna Dee.

Prediction for Rayman: Chance 51% Want: 68%

Noms: bby Lyndis x2 (I might want her more in Smash than Takamaru but I keep my waifu love on the down low)

 

[Z25]

To be fair tho BotW Link is likely just a new skin rather than a revamp, I doubt any of the original 12 will get a major revamp at this point to the level of Cappy Mario.

True but I wouldn’t be surprised if even one move used cappy which I think would have still lowered Pauline’s chances. Botw will get a new move or two but we will see. It’s hard to speculate on certain things for characters when we don’t know much about play style changes to past characters if any.

 

[MacDaddyNook]

Takamaru:

Chance: 50%
Sakurai did consider him for Smash 4 but decided against him due to lack of exposure in the West. Since then, we finally got his game overseas, not to mention some cameos and a Nintendoland minigame, and of course his Assist Trophy. He's still obscure, but at least more people had heard of him, possibly enough to justify a playable character.

Want: 50%
A samurai would be cool, but I don't have a big connection with the character.

 

[Basty]

Takamaru

Chance: 70%

I think Sakurai really wants him, and now that Murasame Castle has released to the west and Takamaru was an assist, so i think he's pretty likely

Want: 100%

My most wanted retro character, such a cool design.

Prediction: Rayman 60%

Takumi x5

 

[bksbestbwoy]

Takamaru. (Warning, long post ahead!)

Chance: 60%

I was sitting here for quite some time stuck thinking about what is going to happen with this character specifically. Takamaru is a character, near and dear enough to Sakurai himself, that he has barely missed the playable boat twice in the nearly 20 year long duration of the Super Smash Bros. series' length in two of its most watershed entries despite his previous obscurity. Sakurai's conservative approach with this character is fair -- The Mysterious Murasame Castle is a single game released in the murky fledgling era of Nintendo as a video game maker in one region to a relatively smaller success story versus its immediate contemporaries in Metroid, Kid Icarus and Mysterious Murasame Castle's sister game, a little often under looked thing called The Legend of Zelda.

Sarcasm aside, everything seemed simultaneously working towards his appearance in Smash 4 but also not quite there just yet. Numerous small nods to the franchise would become exposed to the public starting with his appearance in one of the Wii's unlocalized titles in Captain Rainbow. This oddball title was also the first signs of life for the current day Little Mac as he shared a scenario within the title as well. Many then came to the conclusion that this was one of a few stepping stones to making more "forgotten potential" prominent within the Nintendo Gaming Universe. Takamaru's cameos wouldn't stop there as he would shortly get an entire playable scenario within Samurai Warriors 3 for the Wii and a mini game named in his favor for the Wii U's NintendoLand (Takamaru's Ninja Castle). Then came the big one -- the first official international release of The Mysterious Murasame Castle would take place in August 2014 for the Nintendo 3DS with an announcement and demonstration from Treehouse Live at SDCC... Only to be immediately followed up by Takamaru's announcement as a entrant to the Smash 4 assist trophy selection. Sakurai relented but in doing so, opened the gates to a new era of curiosity about what this character was when he openly admitted on public record for the first time ever that Takamaru was a character that was still swimming about in the back of his head for the playable roster, much to his Japanese VA's shock and polite disappointment. Fast forward a bit and we would have the Smash Ballot which promised any number of fanciful things regarding the seemingly first ever internationally polled character wish. While Takamaru would not make the cut there, a curious thing happened there as well. Within the same direct announcing the final wave of DLC character and bonus material made for Smash 4, an international announcement of a Takamaru themed Mii swordfighter costume was made. Why was something like this given to a character who by all rights was already doing his job of representing himself in Assist Trophy roles? Why did he only share this distinction (AT or otherwise already present-but-not-playable character with a new Mii costume) with Ashley from WarioWare, a character whose AT confirmation actively sent people to pour on waves of dissatisfaction in that decision? Was this a sign of acknowledgement? Was this something tailored towards fans for their output during the Smash Ballot?

Who knows?

At this time, with Smash for Switch seeming to be a genuine new effort, I honestly only feel as though it's a coin flip between whether or not Sakurai implements Takamaru or relents for a third time citing the character's lack of game appearances yet again. At the same time, Takamaru faces fewer strong or "obvious" level front runners in the retro pack while also occupying a niche that still has yet to be filled (more on that below) and carrying a history as one of Nintendo's "Famicom Four" or 1986 releases that piggy backed off of one another's game design. At this time, he has his strongest chance barring a playable appearance in a new title which is why I am skewing a tad higher than coin flip (50%) like I initially planned to.

Want: 100%

I literally cannot detail to you all how much I want this. Takamaru is literally my aesthetic. I want you to imagine the most delicious looking cake you have ever had or could possibly have. You see layers upon layers of amazingly polished frosting designs, cookie crumbles, fudge, ice cream, whatever you're into. You take a slice of that cake and eat it, only to find out there is no actual cake under all that wonderful external presentation and layering. That's what Smash has felt like without this particular player character archetype. Smash 4 was a game that felt so rich and dense in content, so full of characters that have meant so much to me in gaming and full of just fun characters on a basic play style level but without the glue, without the one play style I have wanted since about 2003-4 (ever since Rurouni Kenshin first put a much younger me on to how exciting and thrilling both mechanically and aesthetically this sword play could be) to become realized in the series, I just couldn't help but feel a bit down about things. Smash has under gone so many radical changes from its quaint 1999 origins but this one niche -- a slash and sheathe katana wielding swords person -- is still wholly vacant. Even more upsetting is that the two characters most ready to be utilized for this role were bound by the saddest circumstances to only be assist trophies at best (Takamaru and Lyn). What's even worse in the case of Takamaru is that not only does he just bring the aesthetic and the sword play, he brings with him a bag of tools and tricks from his base 1986 release that easily distinguishes himself from the cast of playable sword fighters and potentially ties him with some stuff we've seen in more modern game characters' arsenals. He brings with him wonderful character themes that range from the serene to the sweeping to the playful to the bombastic and heart pumping. He brings the potential for a wholly new or mostly new set of stage aesthetics playing off the period he is inspired by.

A lot of people see the character and downplay him for being "an ordinary samurai/guy" as he is a simple design that omits the bombast or the fantastical of other more hotly anticipated or requested characters for a quaint and humble look and honestly? That's kind of a big strength of the character for me, especially when his fighting style is where the majority of his personality and the raw visual excitement should come from. Playing MMC, you can already see the argument for him being a very technical zoner with an exceptionally strong close combat style. That isn't even considering his ability to become intangible, amazing sprinting speed with the right equipment, various projectiles, and command over lightning. To put out a simple comparison for modern gaming's sake, Takamaru is the Dante to Lyn's Vergil.

TL;DR I'm extremely passionate about this character. This is my "that character" for Smash 5. I just hope Sakurai feels reassured enough to do the thing this time.

Nomination: Let's talk about an under looked oddball with a design that needs to live on in something better than where she came from.

Monita (NintendoLand) x 5

 

[Capybara Gaming]

Takamaru
Chance: 65% - By far the most likely retro rep considering his history with Smash and current standing in relevancy, and the one with so much potential. Sakurai, this time is the time.
Want: 100% - Not only my most wanted retro but my most wanted first party character. He really deserves a spot.

Prediction: Rayman
Chance: 34.76%
Want: 74.36%

Nominations:
Sora x5

 

[slambros]

Takamaru

Chance: 55%
He is one of few characters left who seems to be a really good fit.

Want: 100%
I think he'd be great for sure.

Nominations:
Dillon x5

 

[YoshiandToad]

Takamaru

Chance: 45%
Thinking back to Sm4sh speculation everyone thought Takamaru was a shoe-in on Smashboard, To this day I have no idea why it was so globally accepted he must be the retro rep when Duck Hunt was more well known, had a far bigger player base AND repped some old school Nintendo hardware.

In fact...those retro picks of Smash thus far all represent hardware...are we even sure that dedicated slot IS retro and not Nintendo history hardware?

That isn't to say Sakurai won't look at Takamaru and think he has potential; he did after all get in as an assist trophy, something that worked out well for AND was also a Mii outfit, which many are banking on for the sales to get K. Rool in, so we know Sakurai at least acknowledges his existence.

Want: 30%
Not exactly clamouring for Takamaru, and to be honest the idea of playing as a fairly standard looking Samurai doesn't overly excite me, but he does have some merit and I can see his moveset working well. It's a shame we never got his game in the west because I may have a bigger connection to him then.

He's sadly not even my number one samurai assist turned playable choice with Goroh standing over there.

Ironically he might still be my number 1 retro pick, as I'm really struggling to think of any old obscure character I want more than him...

Rayman prediction: 78.5%
That trophy. WHAT DOES IT MEAN?

Nominations:
Concept: Zelda Newcomer X 5

 

[Scamper52596]

Takamaru

Chance: 42%
I honestly think if we get a new retro character in this iteration of Smash Takamaru's chances aren't too bad. Since we've already seen an Assist Trophy upgraded to a fully playable character before, I could see it happening again. Still, I wouldn't necessarily rate his chances as overly likely, but I think he's got a good shot.

Want: 27%
I think he could be a cool addition to the retro characters we already have, and he seems to fit. I don't really know anything about the character though other than a brief bit of his history (mostly thanks to the Smash community), but I wouldn't mind his inclusion. Not sure if I'd play as him though; he would have to be a fun character for me.

Prediction
Rayman: 52.4%

Nominations
Concept: No Cuts x 5

 

[ThatShadowLink]

In fact...those retro picks of Smash thus far all represent hardware...are we even sure that dedicated slot IS retro and not Nintendo history hardware?

Uh

Sorry, but did you forget the Ice Climbers? And Pit? They were retro picks. As was Little Mac. Mac was a little different, having gotten a revival before his inclusion in Smash 4, but it's very clear that his presence was heavily retro-focused, and centered greatly on the original Punch-Out! arcade game for some reason. He even got 8 extra wire frame costumes based on his arcade appearance.

 

[Strider_Bond00J]

It's a shame we never got his game in the west because I may have a bigger connection to him then.

Takamaru's game did get released for the west eventually - It's available on the 3DS eShop and they went out of their way to say that Murasame Castle would be getting an international release. Sort of around 2014 it got launched after it was announced at some convention somewhere and before Takamaru's reveal as an Assist Trophy. Granted it was well over 30 years for an un-localised game, but the West does have a chance to properly play Takamaru's game now.

Now begins my post, and then back to uni work I go.

"Long, long ago, there were a man who try to make his skill ultimate. Because of his bloody life, it's no accident he was involved in the troubles.

Wait, we're not talking about Haohmaru? Though off-topic, I'd love to see a Samurai Shodown character show up in something like SoulCalibur...

Being serious now:
Chance: 67%
I'd say Takamaru has a pretty decent shot of seeing the promotion to playable his Western counterpart Little Mac got between Brawl to Smash 4. Although he's not as well known in the international sphere, that seems to be slowly changing in recent times. Takamaru once appeared in Samurai Warriors 3 as a guest character, and while not localised, appeared in Captain Rainbow with some minor character traits added to him to give him more personality.

What's also interesting is that he got his own mini-game for the Wii U's launch title Nintendo Land, at a time when not a lot of people knew about Takamaru, but they went out of the way to throw a shout-out The Mysterious Murasame Castle like this. Over time, he certainly got more popular, and it looked there was the perfect opportunity for him to be playable when they announced Murasame Castle would be getting a 3DS re-release internationally...!

And then profound... sadness... He's an Assist Trophy.

However, it doesn't seem to bad. We know he was considered twice in the series' history, but wasn't included because he didn't have enough fame or recognition under his belt on either occasion.

If the 3DS re-release was successful enough, and given that people seem to want Takamaru become playable enough that they made a Mii Costume in his likeness, I'd say this ronin has a pretty decent shot of getting another chance to fight along his 1986 retro allies. The only things I can imagine would stop him would be either they still don't think he's popular enough abroad or at home to warrant inclusion, or they just decide to go the easy way out and leave him in AT hell.

Want: 100%
Easily one of my most wanted characters for Smash Switch. It'll be an amazing victoly to have him playable in Smash Bros. Takamaru's got the potential to be a character unlike others in the roster. Be it a focus on Japanese sword fighting techniques like Iaijutsu or Kenjutsu, a variety of samurai/ninja skills at his disposal to deceive opponents or use a variety of other weapons at his disposal like shruiken and kunai...

I think Takamaru's got what it takes to be a very unique character should he become playable, and I want to see that day come true like it did for Little Mac.

 

[DNeon]

Takamaru

Chance: 50%

He could or he couldn't, he's seemingly been on the cusp of making it for so long, but has been short for so long too, and every game missed is more time spent out of the spotlight. BUT Nintendo clearly remembers and cares about him enough to keep him mildly relevant. If the 5 is expanding the third party roster then I'd say he's out, but if there's plenty of Nintendo spots available I think he's in the running.

Want: 65%

Love the samurai, iaido schtick that's still absent. Lyn has my vote for a representative for it, but who says there can't be more than one.

Rayman Prediction: 44.96%

Nominations:
Andy x 3
Travis Touchdown x 1
Concept: Advance Wars CO x 1

 

[RouffWestie]

Takamaru

Chance: 99%

With all the special recognition he was getting both in and outside of Smash, and the fact that he was confirmed to have been considered as a playable character, it's pretty clear how likely he is. His game even got localized, so he no longer has Japan-only status weighing him down. I personally believe there is no other retro choice Sakurai would even be thinking about at this point.

Want: 5%

Just like every other likely newcomer, he is not the kind of character that appeals to me. He seems very predictable and uninspired. He isn't a unique spin on the samurai archetype, he just is "a samurai." I don't think I will be more interested in his playstyle any more than Marth's. The only positive I can think of is that his design looks more simple, lacking that visual clutter I've disliked in the Xenoblade and FE sword fighters' designs.

 

[Deleted member]

The Famicom's samurai

Chance: 80%

Sakurai himself stated he would have made the cut if he was more popular, and with how his game reached to the West and his appearance as an AT, I think he reached the spot.

Want: 65%

A samurai fighter? Go in.


Nomination:
x5

Rayman prediction:
58%

 

[CaptainAmerica]

I can’t bring myself to rate any newcomer higher than 50%, just because Sakurai is next to impossible to predict. Personally, I expect there are two most likely newcomers, based on references in the previous game, Sakurai’s comments, and polls from around the world. K.Rool, and this guy...

Takamaru

Chance: 45%
Want: 25%

Sakurai’s been thinking about him most every game so far. While he’s yet to make it, PushDustIn has the articles on Sora that say who was considered for each game, and Tak’s there each time.

The relevance argument is also out the window thanks to Mac. Tak’s not really been seen in the west, but he was in as an assist and has a great chance of making the jump in the next game.

The only thing that could hold him back is that Zelda basically took his developers and ran off with them, so his history is one game that is 30 years old. Could be considered Retro now...

Personally, he doesn’t do anything for me. I’ve never heard about him (like most in the west, I expect) before his Assist was revealed, and there are a few characters I’d like to see first. Still, I’d be interested in a samurai who fights with an iaijutsu style.

Prediction for Rayman: 38.9%
Nominations: Mewtwo x5

 

[Deleted member]

Takamaru

Chance: 45%

He was considered in the past, but ultimately decided against due to his lack of western exposure. Shouldn't be much of an issue now that his original game finally got an international release a few years back, but I know there exist other "retro" characters to compete with.

Want: 85%

He'd be cool.

Prediction: Rayman - 41.5%

Nomination: Shulk x5

 

[Megaban]

Chance -32%
Sakurai DID mention he was thinking of adding him. Character is pretty obscure, but does have some support, things going for him and value of a retro character, but not a lot besides that. We technically have 2 "ninja" characters now (Sheik and Greninja), but I can see that happening.

Want -50%
I don't mind, but I don't really think about him when thinking about a character I want. So yea, 50/50.

Nomination: Lana x5

Prediction: Rayman -55%

Ohoho Rayman. Expect an essay tomorrow.

 

[Deleted member]

Chance: 80%
I'm surprised people are giving him such a low rating. I thought he was generally considered the most likely retro.
The only thing that prevented Takamaru from making it into Sm4sh was his lack of western exposure, but with his game releasing on the 3DS Virtual console, his appearence in Nintendo Land, AND both his Assist Trophy and Mii costume, I don't think that's an issue anymore.
And he's like the most popular retro character (at least here), so competition, while probably his biggest hurdle, probably isn't a major issue.

Want: 90%
I need my Sword-and-Sheathe Samurai that occasionally throws shuriken. He's one of the 6 Nintendo newcomers I really want (We've rated 3 of them, 1 should be obvious since I own his thread, and I'll let you figure out the last one for yourselves though some of you already know that, and I'll reveal the secret once his sig icon is out). Bonus points if one of his alts is wearing a full Samurai armor, I would ****ing love that.
Also The Mysterious Murasame Castle is one of the better games on the Famicom, go play it instead of the trash that is Zelda 1.

Rayman prediction: 38%

Decidueye x5

Spoiler: Want rating for every character so far

King K. Rool: 90%
Ridley: 1%
Snake: 100%
Ice Climbers: 70%
Wolf: 95%
Isaac: 100%
Bandana Dee: 100%
Pauline: 0.001%
Captain Toad: 70%
Takamaru: 90%

 

[MasterOfKnees]

Takamaru:

Chance: 50% - It's well documented that he's been seriously considered before, and with the number of decent retro character options having thinned out he's so much more likely than ever before. We will get a retro character, and Takamaru is the obvious favorite for the spot, even more so if we get two of them as we've occasionally done.

Want: 30% - I know a lot of people are tired of hearing this, but I think we have enough swordsmen. I can see some of the values he brings as he'd at least have a distinct style, but I wouldn't get excited about him.

 

[Runic_SSB]

Takamaru

Chance: 10%
Sakurai rejected him because no one outside Japan knows who he is, and even with the eshop release, that hasn't changed.

Want: 0%
His extremely tiny but extremely loud fanbase has annoyed me so much that I'm rooting against him. Seriously y'all are almost as bad as the Geno fans during Brawl.

Rayman prediction: 50%

Nominations:
Travis Touchdown x2
Funky Kong x2
Sora x1

 

[RouffWestie]

Takamaru
Chance: 10%
Sakurai rejected him because no one outside Japan knows who he is, and even with the eshop release, that hasn't changed.

I'm curious to know what you actually mean by this. If the game is no longer only available in Japan, how has that not changed his situation?

I'm rooting against him.

You might be setting yourself up for disappointment.

 

[Strider_Bond00J]

I never said my nominations for today - I'll nominate:
Solaire of Astora (Dark Souls) X3
Nightmare (SoulCalibur) X2

 

[PushDustIn]

Takamaru:

Chance: 40%

Takamaru has been considered multiple times for Smash, but the same issue keeps popping up -- he's just not known in the West. He'd be a retro revival character following in the footsteps of Ice Climbers, Pit, and Duck Hunt. Since the last Smash he's become more well-known thanks to his game releasing in the West, and appearing in Nintendo Land.Why am I putting him lower than 50%? Well, it really depends if the game started out as a port, and how much content Sakurai and the team would like to re-work. Takamaru makes sense as a retro rep and a move set would be unique and interesting... but if they Smash team is building off the Wii U base, Takamaru's chances wouldn't be too high.

Want: 100%

Takamaru is a really cool character, and would really stand out amongst the other sword fighters. He represents Nintendo history and has a solid design.

Prediction: Rayman - 63.2%
Nomination: 9-Volt x5

 

[Runic_SSB]

I'm curious to know what you actually mean by this. If the game is no longer only available in Japan, how has that not changed his situation?

Just because it's on the eshop doesn't mean people are playing it. It got released to zero fanfare, only a small trailer in Europe and a video of some guy playing it at SDCC for NA, both of which have like 20k views. The only people who would've even known or cared would be you guys.

You might be setting yourself up for disappointment.

I'm not the one betting on a 30-year-old one hit wonder reject.

 

[PhilosophicAnimal]

Ok, let's see...day nine. The Samurai who slices ninja guys.

Takamaru

Chance: 40%

I don't quite know about this guy...on the one hand, they gave him a whole section in Nintendo Land, but that was mostly just because his was the only game that would work with their throwing star concept. They released his game in the west, but haven't given him any further attention than that. He did have an assist trophy, but so did the Devil World devil, so I wouldn't say that means much--unless people think that guy has a chance, too. As for moveset potential, I don't see all that much, as he really doesn't have any standout sword skills in his game. Honestly, the only thing he DOES have in his game is a handful of powerups. You could certainly make a moveset for him, but it likely wouldn't stand out much among all the other swordfighters. Nor would his appearance or character, for that matter. If it's simply a matter of him being a promotable assist trophy, then I can think of at least one other who stands out FAR more...a certain Successor to the earth.

As for him being a viable retro choice...I'll give you that. That's really the only reason I'm giving him that percentage. I'd say that's his strongest asset.

Want: 10%

I played his game. It's frustratingly difficult. I tried to best it quite a few times, but lost interest. So I don't have any attachment to him, nor, as explained above, do I think he is very unique.

Prediction: Rayman

Chance: 52.5%

Nominations

Shulk 5x

 

[ShinyRegice]

Takamaru chances: 53%
Takamaru I think is in a better position than during the previous Smash pre-release era. Sakurai did consider him for Smash 3DS/Wii U, but felt that his obscurity to western audience was a reason to exclude him from the playable roster. Now his game has been released to western audiences, and his Smash appearance as an Assist Trophy made him more recognizable to the West too. Being sold as a Mii costume, which is probably the best thing that could have happened to him in the DLC era, is a pretty big deal for a character who was deemed "too obscure" if you ask me. The Duck Hunt dog, who was in hindsight a big competition for a retro spot, is now old news, and I'm not aware of another plausible hardware-oriented retro character like that (I doubt the Color TV-Game series offers potential for a playable fighter). Finally, his model is already done and could easily be ported from Smash Wii U, and could maybe just need a few aesthetic changes.

With these advantages on his side, I believe that Smash Switch may be prime time for Takamaru. Competition and limited slots, however, may limit his chances. I thik that continuing the tradition of "retro" newcomers is still more likely than not, and while he may have competition from other characters in that regard, the advantages Takamaru has makes me imagine he has a higher chance than any of them.

Takamaru want: 63%
I played his game on 3DS VC and it's a pretty unique game were you have to be really strategic in a fast-paced environment. If you're interested in playing it yourself though, I warn you it's SUPER HARD, I in fact gave up at some point in the game because the difficulty of the level was overwhelming. While he's not one of my most wanted characters, I think he'd be an appropriate and interesting choice.

In his original game he has a different attack based on whether there's an enemy close or not, with close range attacks being lethal in one hit, so I could see his playstyle being based on attacking at a distance to help him approach the opponent then delivering powerful blows with close range attacks.

Rayman prediction: 39.87%

Nominating:
Concept: veteran character artworks recycled from Smash 3DS/Wii U x4
Returning game mode: Smash Run x1

 

[So_many_mails]

Takamaru
Chance: 55%
I think he'll get in, but Sakurai has specifically decided not to put him in before.
Want: 65%
I think he'd be pretty cool, and a more original sword based character.

Noms:
Professor Layton x5

Prediction:
Rayman: 53%

EDIT:

So I've been looking back at past Rate Their Chances threads, as I thought that the chance scores this time were much more optimistic than usual. As it turns out, it was pretty much the opposite: Most characetrs have gone now in chance rating since Smash 4's thread. Pauline, Bandanna Dee and Captain Toad are the only exceptions to this, and for good reasons I feel.

 

[TheAnvil]

Takamaru
Chance: 40%
- He's one of the more likely retro revival characters now, and Sakurai previously considered adding him. I put him under 50, as there are a number of other characters who could be revived (IE DK Jr, Lip, Balloon Fighter. For all we know, Geno or K. Rool could count towards a retro revival...). The same problem (unfamiliarity and lack of relevance) that kept him from the last Smash game are arguably more prevalent now, several years removed from the last Smash game. Beyond his appearance as an Assist Trophy, and a VC release...

Want: 0%
- He's got a fairly bland character design. I've also never played his game, and feel we've had enough sword fighters in Smash to last a lifetime. As far as retro characters go, he wasn't even particularly pertinent in his day. Very unappealing to me...

Nom Banjo-Kazooie x5

 

[lurxy]

Takamaru

Chance: 65%
Since he was considered two times now by Sakurai and never made it because his lack of popularity in the west, I am sure he was considered again this time and now has had a place in Nintendo Land (well a name drop at least i guess), an Assist Trophy in Smash and his game was released in the west.
He is in my opinion easily the most recognizable character from Nintendo that was not already included in Smash.

Want: 100%
Since I had read a moveset that someone had posted in the Smash 4 era and I read the words Shuriken and Quick Draw I was sold. Please just do not give him a counter, Sakurai.

Nomination:
Andy x5

Prediction:
Rayman 47.5%

 

[AlphaSSB]

Takamaru

Chance: 10% - Was considered, but didn't make the cut due to obscurity overseas. Instead, he was made into an Assist Trophy, but I'm not too confident that alone will be enough to make him a more viable candidate.

Want: 5% - He's first party, and has some potential, but I have no real attachment or interest in him.

Nominations: Midna x5

 

[Organization XIII]

Chance 60%
This is certainly his best chance. Sakurai stated he has wanted him in but decided against it due to not being known in the West, well now since he was an AT and a Mii costume he's far more recognizable than ever before. The only reason I won't give him a higher score is Sakurai is insanely inconsistent (though it does make speculation fun), Takamaru is the obvious choice for the retro rep, but he may throw a curveball and pick someone else or just decide he no longer wants Takamaru in the game.
Want: 100%
Samurais are cool and his game was the hardest game I've ever beaten, I would think of it as a badge of honor to play as him in Smash after all struggles I went through to beat those aliens and their ninjas.

 

[PhilosophicAnimal]

Hey everybody, Philo here again. Got some news some of you might be interested in--our very own host, TCT~Phantom has asked me to help him catch up with the ever-growing behemoth that is the noms list. I've already gotten started, and I thought I may as well share what I've done so far, just to give you guys an idea of where things stand.

Now, I want to stress:

THIS IS INCOMPLETE.

I've only gotten as far as my post last Tuesday (it'll be easier for me to continue tallying from my own post.) I also have not arranged the entries by highest to lowest value yet, as that really should be done once it's completed. But at the very least, you all can see the way things are going.

Again, this is a WIP:

Spoiler

Nominations List

Crash Bandicoot x 66
Lyndis x 54
Dillon x 45
Doomguy x 29
Anna (Fire Emblem) x 33
Bomberman x 47
Marx x 38
Decidueye x 32
Lucina x 41
Waluigi x 36
Shovel Knight x 30
Skull Kid x34
Chibi Robo x 33
Andy x 40
Arcade Rabbit x 20
Eggman x 28
Phoenix Wright x 25
Lucas x 45
Banjo Kazooie x 22
Sora x 26
Palutena x 15
Shulk x 30
Micaiah x 20
Lana (Hyrule Warriors) x20
Professor Layton x 30
Midna x26
Concept: No Cuts x 24
Geno x 19
Excitebiker x18
Hector (Fire Emblem) x 15
Sophitia x15
Dark Matter (Kirby) X 10
Labo Related Character x 15
Scizor x 15
Elma x13
Celica x 20
Travis Touchdown x 18
Returning game mode: Smash Run x11
Pyra/Mythra (without Rex) x15
Robin x 8
Concept : Zelda Newcomer x 22
Takumi (FE Fates) x7
Style Savvy Rep x 9
Concept: veteran character artworks recycled from Smash 3DS/Wii U x14
Kamek x8
Qbby (from Boxboy) x12
Master Chief x 5
Steve (Minecraft) x5.
Azura x 7
Ninten x 5
Neku x 5
Concept - Melee/Brawl style Classic mode x5
2B x 6
Concept Indie Character x 10
Concept: New Mother Character x 5
Ray (Custom Robo) x 5
Masked Link x5
Medusa x 5
Concept - Skyrim representation x5
Doshin the Giant x7
Jibanyan x9
Susie (Kirby) x10
New story mode x10
Alm (Fire Emblem) x 5
Ryu Hayabusa x10
Doom Slayer x5
Concept: Fire Emblem Spear User x5
Concept: Decloned Ganondorf x5
Wonder Red (The Wonderful 101) x5
Snip & Clip (Snipperclips) x10
Funky Kong x4
Mewtwo x 3
Corrin x 3
Dark Samus x 3
Hades x3
Wii Fit Trainer x3
Lycanroc x3
Ganon (not Ganondorf) x7
Impa x 4
Mii Fighters x 4
Lip (Panel de Pon) x2
Black Shadow x5
Masked Man (Mother 3) x2
Sans (Undertale) x2
King Boo x2
Jack (Harvest Moon) x1
Sol Badguy x1
Kyo Kusanagi x1
Leo (FE Fates) x1
Ryoma (FE Fates) x1
Roy x1
Cloud x6
Simon Belmont x6
New Mii Fighter types (concept) x 1
Sonic x 1
Tails x 1
Fjorm (Fire Emblem Heroes) x1
Harry (Teleroboxer) x 1
Mallo (Pushmo) x 5
Mimikyu x 1
Sheik x1
Toon Link x1
Tetra x1
Vaati x1
Undertale Representation x1
Concept: Advance Wars CO x4
Mipha x1
Revali x1
Daruk x1
Urbosa x1
Balloon Fighter x1
Poochy (Yoshi series) x1
KOS-MOS x2
Garon x1
Bayonetta x1
Concept: Custom Moves Return x1
Rosalina & Luma x1
Bowser Jr. x1
Fawful x3
Jack Frost (Shin Megami Tensei)

Hope that tides you guys over for now. Just know it is being worked on.

I'll jump back into it tonight. Hopefully, I can get it pretty close to done.

 

[Opossum]

Takamaru
Chance: 60%

Lack of a western release doomed him in the past, but he's been in Sakurai's mind and even got a Mii costume. Only reason I'm not going higher is because he could pick a different retro since they're vying for the same spot.

Want: 70%
I'd prefer Muddy Mole or Mach Rider, but he's neat.

Predicting a 44 for Rayman
Nominating Celica x5

 

[-crump-]

Takumaru

Chance: 50%
We never really know how Sakurai works when it comes to the Smash roster, but one or two retro newcomers are usually a pretty safe bet. I could easily see Takumaru getting the Little Mac treatment in this game, because he’s got a lot on his side. His game finally released in the West, he got a Mii Costume and has already been considered for Smash, and lastly, he has a working model from the last Smash game. Of course, it would probably need a few touch ups, but considering Smash 5 will likely reuse some assets from it’s predecessor, this is something I think might help his chances.

Want: 50%
As far as retro options go, he’d be a solid choice. There are a few others that I would rather see instead ( Opossum already mentioned Muddy Mole, who I think would be a great pick), but I wouldn’t throw a fit if the samurai finally made a playable appearance.

Predictions:
Rayman: 48%

Noms:
Codename: S.T.E.A.M rep x3
Hector x2