Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[MasterOfKnees]

Pauline

Chance: 3% - There are Mario characters who deserve it far more, and she seems like a bit of an odd character to bring up at all, I can't really imagine her actually fighting. Still, Sakurai is a crazy man.

Want: 0% - I just don't see the point or the appeal, I'd actually be disappointed to see her take up a spot.

Captain Toad:

Chance: 25% - It's a bit of an odd character to predict because he's in direct competition with a regular Toad, so it does take a bit away from his %. I think it could happen, but it's worth raising the question why Toad hasn't been included already, he is afterall a very iconic Nintendo character, so I feel like Sakurai has some kind of strong opinion on him.

Want: 40% - I don't really care for Toad or his captain counterpart, but I can see the point of including either of them, one of the few iconic Nintendo characters that are missing.

 

[Deleted member]

Pauline

Chance: 10%
I don't have much to say here.
Want: 0.001%
I have no investment in her. And I'm sick of reading arguements about wether she should be grouped with Mario or DK - both franchises have much better choices anyway. Wouldn't be the end of the world if she gets in, but I'd rather have other characters.

Captain Toad

Chance: 70%
He got his own game and he has decent moveset potential to be considered, and he's been pretty relevant recently.
Want: 70%
I used to want him a lot more but I stopped caring. I'm not against him, though.

Prediction for Takamaru: 76.22%
Tagging Yomi's Biggest Fan because I haven't seen him in this thread since we Ridley and because I might forget doing this tomorrow.

Decidueye X5

 

[Deleted member]

The Toad captain

Chance: 40%

Like with Bandana Dee, it's up to Sakurai if he thinks the Mario series warrants a new character, series which already has 6 to its credit.

Want: 30%

Whatever if he's Captain or regular Toad, he still remains as a glorified NPC to me.


The mayor diva

Chance: 5%

Besides her Odyssey appearance, I fail to see what she can really bring.

Want: 25%

Wouldn't mind her, but as I said before, other series should get newcomers first.


Nomination:
x5

 

[Depressed Gengar]

Oh boy, time to get lengthy...

Pauline Chance: 5%
I'm only giving her this much because of her Odyssey appearance and because Sakurai can be bizarre at times. And while I guess she has relevancy at her side... she's not exactly in a good position otherwise. It's clear that she's not a popular pick at all and, easily her biggest issue, she just doesn't have moveset potential at all. Aside from utilizing stuff from Donkey Kong and the Mario VS Donkey Kong games that some people previously suggested (and even those feel like a stretch), she really doesn't have much of anything to work with.

Want: 0%
Said lack of moveset potential is also why I don't want her. Unless Sakurai can somehow pull something interesting and fitting off with her, she'd just feel like a waste. Maybe if Nintendo keeps bringing her back with more stuff I'd accept her inclusion later in the series.

Captain Toad Chance: 15%
Captain Toad here also has relevancy on his side I suppose since his game is getting ported to the 3DS and the Switch, plus he is definitely more popular than Pauline... but things aren't much better.

First off, despite having some popularity, he's also not exactly someone who's got noteworthy popularity. The shroom's a dark horse at best when it comes to popularity, and he likely didn't fare that well in the ballot. Maybe he did OK there but I'm doubtful he left that much of an impact.

Secondly, and again, there's absolutely little to work with here, just like Pauline. The lack of jumping seems something that'd be more of a hindrance to his chances than a boon and would likely either get removed just so he could actually work or he'd probably be deemed unfit for Smash just because of that. The only things he has to fight with are a pickax (which isn't a weapon that can bring much of anything to the table) or turnips, and neither of them sound like they can make a full moveset. I guess he at least has an obvious Final Smash in the form of that Turnip Cannon thing.

Want: 0%
And again, the lack of a moveset ultimately makes me hate the idea. He just sounds like a way more restricted Toad with nothing new to work with, so I don't see why I should want Captain Toad over regular Toad. There's a reason I never entered the Toad thread despite supporting him, and that's because said thread also serves as the Captain Toad thread (and most likely, more of a Captain Toad thread than a Toad thread).

Another reason, even if a bit more personal, is the fact that he just feels like a character who's just there. I dunno, with so many noteworthy Mario characters already, he just seems to exist and will eventually be forgotten to me.

... Huh. This strangely feels shorter than I thought it would be. Weird.

Takumaru Prediction: 70%

Nominations: Dr. Eggman X5

 

[PushDustIn]

Captain Toad:

Chance: 55%

Toad is one of the few Mario all-stars that is a playable character in the mainline Mario games that isn't in Smash as a playable character. Sakurai might dismiss Toad as a common enemy character, but his status has been elevated. Captain Toad might be the best possible way a Toad could make it in as it's a healthy series and a very recurring character. Toad was in the top 10 for "If There Was a Smash 2 Poll" (the first Smash ballot). Mario characters are starting to run low but it's a series that could always use more representation. I personally feel Paper Mario and Captain Toad are all that's left (Maybe outside of Waluigi, but Sakurai doesn't seem to agree that Waluigi is an All-Star)

Want: 70%

He's a cute character, and I wouldn't mind him.

Pauline

Chance: 30%

She's been in the Mini Mario series, Odyssey, and the original DK princess. She could be a mix of retro and new. She was featured heavily in Mario Odyssey's promotion and could be a good female character to add. Her not being playable is definitely a hindrance to her chances though.

Want: 40%

She would be an interesting character to add to Smash. Her move set could represent the old DK cabinet, Mini Mario, and even some Odyssey references. A lot to pull from and from a "Nintendo history" perspective, she's a legacy character.

 

[AlphaSSB]

Pauline

Chance: 5% - I see very little going for her. She's way more likely to make it as an Assist Trophy or an Odyssey Stage background entity. Only thing going for her as playable is her relevancy, and potential for a music-based moveset, which would probably be better suited for a Rhythm Heaven character. That, and her being a woman may give her an edge in case Sakurai wants to add more women to the roster.

Want: 0% - No interest.


Captain Toad

Chance: 20% - Relevant character, has his own game which is also getting ported to Switch, and seems to be decently popular. Moveset potential is there, as well as the opportunity to add Captain Toadette as an alternate. Problem with Captain Toad is his inability to jump, which is integral to Smash. Although I'm sure that if Sakurai really wanted him in, he'd find a way to make him work. Lowest actual jumps in-game, with perhaps a strong recovery Special to compensate?

Want: 60% - Would actually be pretty nice to see, although he isn't at the top of my most wanted.


Nominations: Krystal x5

 

[MrNantendo]

A double-whammy today I see. Let's-a-go!

Captain Toad

Chance: 70%

Mario usually gets a new rep and Captain Toad is the most likely candidate. However, 'Mario' can also mean DK, Yoshi and Wario (look at Brawl) and in that sense, I think K.Rool and Dixie are more likely. The argument that he can't jump is a silly one.

Want: 60%

I would like Captain Toad. He's grown on me and Toad is one of those few missing all-stars.

Pauline

Chance: 1%

Very unlikely. Unlike Rosalina and even Daisy there isn't much that Pauline has going for her right now except for immediate relevance with Mario Odyssey. She isn't a fighter and doesn't have anything really unique to her.

Want: 5%

I wouldn't be against Pauline but eh, there are better Mario characters out there.

Nomination: Ayumi Tachibana x5

 

[TheAnvil]

Pauline
Chance: 10% - Just all around, very unlikely. There is a moveset there (between retro Mario/DK nods and the Mario vs. DK series), but I could only see it if they are desperate to find new female characters to add.

Want: 20% - She wouldn't bother me, but there are at least 3 of 4 better choices from the Mario series.

Captain Toad
Chance: 75% - He's become highly prolific recently. Not only has he had his own game (with both a Switch and 3DS port release pending), he's had memorable roles in Galaxy and Odyssey. Normal Toad may not really have a moveset, but Captain Toad's tools give him enough to work with. Not to mention that a Toad is probably the single most iconic Nintendo character not already playable in Smash. If we are to see a new Mario character (which is always likely due to it being Nintendo's cash cow), the only real competition he has, is with Paper Mario (and maybe Waluigi).

Want: 90% - I'd be very happy to see him, he ticks every box. I'd still prefer Waluigi though.

Nom: Banjo-Kazooie x5.

 

[Mario & Sonic Guy]

Pauline

• Chance: 5%
• Want: 80% (stage cameo)
• Pauline's chances at being playable aren't very good, but she may make the cut as a stage cameo character.

Captain Toad

• Chance: 10%
• Want: 80%
• Captain Toad's inability to jump can be a problem, but that can be mitigated if Captain Toad serves as one of Toad's palette swap choices instead.

 

[Deleted member]

• Want: 80% (stage cameo)

I'm pretty sure it's supposed to be specifically for a playable role.

 

[Crap-Zapper]

The damsel, the mayor, it's;

Pauline;

Chance: 20%

She is becoming more relevant than ever. If they keep on pushing Pauline, she will be more likely further, but honestly, I do not see what she would bring to the table, really. I feel like she is a great background character conept, that has not been developed yet.

Want: 20%

Honestly. I do not care too much. I would not look forward to it and hoping for it, but I would not get mad for it...


Time for the explorer of Mushy Kingdom;

Captain Toad;

Chance: 80%

No doubt that Captain Toad is a name to be spoken about. He had his own game, and would easily implement Captain Toadette as a skin. The fact that his game is coming to Switch makes it even more obvious. If it was regular Toad, I would put it as high as 90 percent, but since it's specifically CT I have it at that, which is still high. I believe it will happen, at least Toad.

Want: 95%

I would really love to see Toad. I do not mind at all playing as Captain Toad, and I believe in Toad being playable in this entry. I do not mind if it's a skin or not.

 

[Mario & Sonic Guy]

I'm pretty sure it's supposed to be specifically for a playable role.

If that's the case, then my want percentage for Pauline being playable is pretty much less than 1%.

 

[RouffWestie]

Pauline

Chance: 2%

Doesn't have a lot going for her at the moment. She made plenty of cameo appearances during the GBA - Wii era and those didn't effect her chances. I don't think Odyssey was some grand revival for her, though it did give her a slightly more important role.

Want: 0%
------
Captain Toad

Chance: 90%

He's starred in his own game, which on top of being quite recent, is getting an updated Switch port. So I'd say he's up there with Bandanna Dee.

Want: 2%

I would prefer almost every other Mario character to him, even potential clones.

 

[Rockaphin]

Pauline:

Chance: 8%

Want: 0%
No. Not interested in the slightest.

Captain Toad:

Chance: 60%

Want: 20%
Never been a fan of Toad. Nor do I really care for Captain Toad(Neat assist character though).

Takamaru Prediction: 38%

Nominations:
Ken Alt Costume for Ryu x5

 

[DaisyandRosalina]

Pauline:
Chances: 10% in a world where Waluigi, Daisy and Paper Mario seem to be the most likely candidates Pauline's chances are not great at all, she may got some relevancy thanks to Odyssey but her lack of moveset (or fight features in general) and huge period of obscurity are not helipng at all.
Want: 27%
As a playable characher, 5%
As a NPC cameo, 50%

Captain Toad:
Chances: 40%
This character got his own game with two ports, is a part of the most important species in Mario and has moveset potential. My main problem is his lack of jumping ability which is one of the main features of his character.
Want: 5%
Not a fan.

 

[CWCPT00]

Pauline:

Chance: 5%

There’s much more deserving characters than Pauline, also I don’t think she’s relevant enough to warrant an playable appearance in Smash yet.

Want: 0%

I don’t want another ‘princess’ character in the Mario series for Smash. Peach is enough for me.

Captain Toad:

Chance: 57.5%

I am much more optimistic for Captain Toad for this next instalment for Smash. However, like the Captain and every other character to enter Smash, he is not a shoe-in. What really helps his chances though is the fact that he has his own series now, his first game Captain Toad: Treasure Tracker was actually really successful and which is why he is getting ports into the Switch and the 3DS. CT: TT actually sold around 1.5 million copies and that is really good considering the Wii U only sold about 13 million units.

The argument that is going around is that “he can’t jump”. While that is true, there’s ways around it. One way is by making his jumps as the propeller platforms from CT: TT, this would be the way I would make Captain Toad jump. Another way is by making some mechanic with his bag-pack, like taking items like gems, double cherry’s, stars, turnips, etc. Taking items out of his bag would make him lighter, faster and actually able to jump. Sakurai is a smart man and if he his considering Captain Toad for Smash, he would definitely found a way to do so.

Want: 100%

Captain Toad is the character I want the most for the next instalment of Smash. He probably would be the most unique character in the game if he was to get added in. I found his moveset potential really exciting to imagine as he could use the clear pipe cannon as his Up-B as he actually uses it to get from one area to another, the potted piranha plant can be used as his Neutral-B, the longer he charges it up with water, the bigger the piranha plant will be and will create more damage , range and knockback. His Down-B can be plucking turnips and occasionally the odd gem, mushroom and double cherry. His Side-B can be the mine cart, similar to Wario and Bowser Jr’s Side-B, but is slower but can also deal more damage and knockback. His Forward Smash could be the Pick-axe which has a sweet spot at the tip of the axe dealing more damage and knockback. The range of this move would be very good, but the attack speed would be around the speed of Ike’s Forward Smash.

I could go on, but I’ll leave it at here for now.

Takamaru:

Chance: 32.5%

Nominations:

Shovel Knight x3
Bomberman x1
Decidueye x1

 

[CWCPT00]

Pauline:

Chance: 5%

There’s much more deserving characters than Pauline, also I don’t think she’s relevant enough to warrant an playable appearance in Smash yet.

Want: 0%

I don’t want another ‘princess’ character in the Mario series for Smash. Peach is enough for me.

Captain Toad:

Chance: 57.5%

I am much more optimistic for Captain Toad for this next instalment for Smash. However, like the Captain and every other character to enter Smash, he is not a shoe-in. What really helps his chances though is the fact that he has his own series now, his first game Captain Toad: Treasure Tracker was actually really successful and which is why he is getting ports into the Switch and the 3DS. CT: TT actually sold around 1.5 million copies and that is really good considering the Wii U only sold about 13 million units.

The argument that is going around is that “he can’t jump”. While that is true, there’s ways around it. One way is by making his jumps as the propeller platforms from CT: TT, this would be the way I would make Captain Toad jump. Another way is by making some mechanic with his bag-pack, like taking items like gems, double cherry’s, stars, turnips, etc. Taking items out of his bag would make him lighter, faster and actually able to jump. Sakurai is a smart man and if he his considering Captain Toad for Smash, he would definitely found a way to do so.

Want: 100%

Captain Toad is the character I want the most for the next instalment of Smash. He probably would be the most unique character in the game if he was to get added in. I found his moveset potential really exciting to imagine as he could use the clear pipe cannon as his Up-B as he actually uses it to get from one area to another, the potted piranha plant can be used as his Neutral-B, the longer he charges it up with water, the bigger the piranha plant will be and will create more damage , range and knockback. His Down-B can be plucking turnips and occasionally the odd gem, mushroom and double cherry. His Side-B can be the mine cart, similar to Wario and Bowser Jr’s Side-B, but is slower but can also deal more damage and knockback. His Forward Smash could be the Pick-axe which has a sweet spot at the tip of the axe dealing more damage and knockback. The range of this move would be very good, but the attack speed would be around the speed of Ike’s Forward Smash.

I could go on, but I’ll leave it at here for now.

Takamaru:

Chance: 32.5%

Nominations:

Shovel Knight x3
Bomberman x1
Decidueye x1

May I just add as well, Captain Toad would not be a Mario representative if he was going to be added into a playable character for Smash, I would make him as a representative of his own series the Captain Toad series, bringing in a new representative into the game.

 

[Megaban]

Pauline chance -1%
Only reason this isn't zero is TECHNICALLY it's not impossible. But like... she has no real reason to be playable. If you want old DK games rep, give it to DK. Those mtoys spinoffs? Mario. She just is too out of place and all her niches are taken already.

Pauline want -10%
Like, I won't cry if she got in, but I see no reason to, she feels like literal waste of a slot (I don't mean there are limited places, just those resources could go somehere else) That doesn't mean she can't be included. In fact, she might as well appear in New Donk City stage, which I'd like to see. Singing in the background.

Captain Toad chance - 50%
He's literal 50/50 rn imo. Appears in various games after Super Mario Galaxy, gets his own game mode in 3d World, then gets his own GAME, which just so happens to get a port soon. That makes his chances quite real.However, there are some obstacles for him. 1st one i that it's Mario franchise -there's a LOT of character potentials. Another thing is the way Cpt Toad himself is characterised: unable to jump (well, technically he does tiny hop, but still), which obviously is no-go in Smash. Not to mention Peah's Neutral B being a Toad could disrupt that as well. So, possible, but far from certain.

Captain Toad want -55%
He'd be an interesting choice for sure. Wouldn't mind at all, despite "problems" I've mentioned earlier. You can circumvent jumping problem if you're creative. But main reason it's only 55 is because I do want a DIFFERENT Mario character. Paper Mario. And as I've said, there are limited Mario spaces. Very limited for franchise's size. So, I'd be ok with him, but not exactly "want."

Nominations: Lana x5. As usual.

Prediction: Takamaru -30%.

 

[Kirby Dragons]

Chance (Pauline): 50%

I could see it happening, I could not see it happening.

Want (Pauline): 0%

Not before Daisy or Waluigi.

Chance (Captain Toad): 25%

While Sakurai might not want to make him jump, that doesn't mean Sakurai won't want to work around it.

Want (Captain Toad): 18%

Please just give me Daisy and Waluigi.

Nominations: Urban Champion ×5

 

[Xenigma]

So I wasn't expecting to do this, but after sleeping on it and reading a bunch of these posts I'm going to change one my ratings:

Captain Toad
Chance - 0% 25%
The not-jumping thing remains my biggest hang-up with the character, but I've seen enough plausible explanations of what to do with him as well as examples of previously "unfaithful" character adaptations that I'm willing to concede that Sakurai can work around it if he wants to do so. (These sorts of moveset ideas/explanations really ought to be in the first post of Captain Toad's thread, but I digress.) I also can't deny that he's had a really good run in terms of appearances, both with main-series Mario games and his own title with a Switch port. It's kind of like @Nimbostratus suggested: I may think he doesn't make sense for Smash, but casual fans have every reason to believe he deserves a shot. I'm sticking with my gut feeling that he doesn't make it, but I have to concede he's much more plausible than I gave him credit for.

Also, unofficially:

Captain Toadette Want - 100%
I hadn't really considered her as a viable candidate, but if this is how I get a playable Toadette in Smash, Nintendo take my money! (Alternatively, if we get Captain Toad but not Captain Toadette, Nintendo why?!?)

EDIT: TCT~Phantom I'll vote for option A, so we can get on with voting for Crash and whatever ends up stealing second. Definitely continue doubling up for nominations where it makes sense, like say Lucina/Roy if the latter ends up with more than a single vote any time soon.

 

[RosiePeaches]

Captain Toad

Chances: 15%

Toad is a decently popular choice for Smash and he feels like one of the more visible omissions, but the fact that Toad is presented as physically handicapped and being unable to jump at all in his Captain form kills his chances at being a playable character. If he jumps, he is no longer Captain Toad. Smash needs jumping. Sakurai didn't add the Excitebiker because of troubles with it jumping around. Sometimes conceptual issues can stop a character getting in entirely. It doesn't help that there are Mario characters who are popular and CAN jump.

Want: 55%

If they can make him work, I am fine with him.

 

[Erureido]

Pauline

Chance: 1%

While she has the prominence of being one of the first damsel-in-distresses of video games and her recent appearance in Odyssey, there isn't much she would bring in terms of moveset potential, at least from the way I'm trying to imagine her. She also has to compete with more popular Mario candidates like Daisy, Waluigi, and the other Mario character we're rating today.

Want: 0%

I like Pauline from her appearance in Odyssey alone, but I don't feel it's time for her to be in Smash yet. I also have a hard time imagining her moveset potential. Sure, using Cappy is a possibility, but I think it better suits Mario.

------

Captain Toad

Chance: 40%

He has become a rising face in the Mario series from his appearances in Mario games like Super Mario World 3D and Mario Odyssey to even being featured in his own game that appeared on the WiiU, Switch, and 3DS. He could also help represent one of Mario's most iconic characters (the Toads), and he even has some decent popularity that supports him. His main issue comes down to competition with other popular Mario characters like Daisy and Waluigi and the possibility the developers may struggle to implement his "no-jump" liability into Smash.

Want: 50%

Wouldn't mind him at all. I'm basically indifferent to his inclusion, though if he does make it into the game, I hope Sakurai will find a way to make Captain Toad useful while keeping the "no-jump" thing in mind (the idea about Toad having very low jumps but an excellent up special for recovery sounds like an interesting idea).

------

Predictions

Takamaru (Murasame Castle): 37.25%

Decently popular and has retro appeal, but I have a feeling many will use relevancy to argue against his advantages.

------

Nominations

Professor Layton (Professor Layton): x5

 

[Deleted member]

retro

relevancy

Literally ****ing what.

 

[KingofPhantoms]

Pauline chance: 5%

Heavy promotion like the treatment Pauline's been getting for Odyssey can help bring a character back into the spotlight or into it in the first place, depending on whether the character is a new or old one. But it's not a major factor in choosing new characters on it's own. It can influence other factors, like relevance and popularity (this is especially significant for Pokemon newcomers) but in Pauline's case, it's just not enough. She's been around for a while, but....really, what could she do? Furthermore, if past Smash games are anything to go by, recently introduced or reintroduced characters from extremely new games like this rarely get into Smash. We didn't get Rosalina right away when Brawl came out. And I'm not entirely sure when development on this new Smash title began, but I don't think it's unreasonable to doubt that Pauline was ever strongly considered for it by the time that it did.

Want: 0%

Don't get me wrong, I'm extremely glad she's been brought back into the Mario universe and the way they've handled her in Odyssey is fantastic ("Jump Up, Super Star!", anyone?) but I just feel she's too new to get in right now, and I still fail to see how she could feasibly do anything unique and fun as a fighter. There are still other Mario newcomers I'd rather see first. Pauline getting in before at least one of them would be an insult.

Captain Toad chance: 45%

I would like to think he's got a better shot than the usual Toad with his spin-off franchise and appearances in the main Mario series. The question, once again ,is if Sakurai could see any truly great moveset potential in the guy.

I don't remember what my previous ratings for Toad were, but in the long run, a Toad of any sort is just a character I've never had much confidence in. I do think that a Toad now has a better chance than ever, as I said previously, but I still just don't find him more likely than not.

Want: 50%

I'm at a point where I could do with or without a Toad in Smash.

Takamaru Prediction: 37%

Nominations: Shovel Knight x5

 

[Yomi's Biggest Fan]

Literally ****ing what.

You know that’s bound to happen.

Going back on topic, I will give my scores later.

 

[OcarinaOfDoom]

Pauline

Chance: 5%
Don't think it's gonna happen at all, but anything could happen
Want: 5%

Captain Toad:
Chance: 35%
Yes, he can't jump and that's the obvious obstacle, but he's made quite a few appearances at this point, it's not out of the question.
Want: 25%

Takamaru: 45%

 

[Sailor Waddle Dee]

Double day time. alright, here goes.

we'll start with the character I have more to say about

Captain Toad

Chance: 60% - I think he's more likely than not likely. but I also don't see his chances as that high. He is kind of in a similar position to Bandana Dee in a lot of ways. and as a result, he has a lot going for him. he's a prominent character in the Mario franchise. appearing in Mario Galaxy, Galaxy 2, 3D World, and even Odyssey. and that's not even going into the fact he EVEN GOT HIS OWN GAME! which is getting ported to the switch with bonus levels. Toads are an iconic species in the Mario franchise. and while up to this point they've been relegated to being used as meat shields by Peach. Captain Toad sets himself apart from the other members of his race and would fit perfectly as a distinct character of his own. if it weren't for a few minor issues...
First and foremost, he can't jump. at all. this has been a mainstay of his skillset in his appearances. making a character in smash bros that can't jump at all would seriously hamper him compared to every other character in the game. even worse than Little Mac. they could rectify this by just giving him the ability to jump in smash. but that would go against a core part of who captain toad is as a character. they could also work some gimmicks from his game into his moveset and have him summon moving platforms that can lift him up. but this doesn't seem like a very elegant solution.
on top of that. even with his own game under his belt. he hasn't shown off too much potential for a moveset. he can walk, he can pick turnips, he can swing a pickaxe. that's a start i guess. maybe he can summon and ride a mine-cart? but there'd need to be much more creativity used on him to make up a moveset than with other characters. on top of that. Sakurai may decide they don't need another Mario rep. or that Captain Toad would work better as an assist trophy. these are possibilities.
but given how big the Mario franchise is, being the flagship face of Nintendo and all. they always deserve more characters. and it makes sense for lots of Mario characters to get in. and in the long long list of Mario characters. Captain Toad would probably rank among the top of the pile. among the likes of Waluigi, Daisy and Geno.

Want: 82% - I'd definitely like to see him in. I quite like him as a character and enjoyed his game and his levels in 3D world. but he isn't among my most wanted newcomers. I'd definitely play him if he got in though.

and now we move on to

Pauline

Chance: 10% - I REALLY don't see her happening. I'm not sure why people would want her. she has never really shown off and abilities that could be adapted into a moveset. nor has she made any interesting enough appearances to draw from. unless her moveset involves her singing, playing with Toy Marios, running a city and getting captured. she also just doesn't feel relevant or prominent enough to be an interesting choice for smash. even with her appearance in Odyseey. I could see us getting a stage based on New Donk City, and maybe she'll appear in that. in the background, she'll definitely get a trophy. and Jump Up, Super Star is definitely going to be a song in the game. but I really don't see Pauline as being a likely playable character. but I've learned to never say never. and always expect the unexpeted from sakurai. so I'd still give her some level of chance based on that. plus odyssey was a very popular game and her song was used in the marketing of it a lot. that could help her chances i guess.

Want: 0.2% - that tiny bit of want from me is purely because I'm curious what Sakurai could come up with for her.

Takamaru Prediction: 41%

Nominations

Qbby (Boxboy) x3
Impa x1
Wakuigi x1

 

[CaptainAmerica]

But what if Pauline used Cappy?....

Stop trying to influence the votes that’s a bad idea.


To make this post not a waste, for more of the schedule I could potentially do double days of characters that are related, albeit I might do it sparingly. The game plan would be to combine days 18 and 19 and days 20 and 21. However that could leave us with a gap. As such, I have a few options.

A) Two Most Nominated Characters/concepts get days before the end of the month
B) I undemocraticly choose two new ideas or ideas off the noms list that I find interesting.
C)Put all noms into an random number gen and get two days.
D) Do Nothing, the schedule is nice.
E) We do a stage day in which I take stage related ideas and concepts and y’all rate them. My idea is a day of rating New Donk City, Frozen Fruits, and Sr388 and a day of rating Ultra Space, Neo Los Angeles, and Great Plateau.


Let me know which you all would prefer.

I love double days. We don’t have much time so we’d get through the nom list quicker - it grows pretty fast. I’d be up for all double days.

We could just start the game properly and pulling from the top of the nom list. Stages and other game aspects are fun to discuss and don’t have the baggage of who hates which character, so let’s stat nominating more concepts!

 

[MacDaddyNook]

Captain Toad:

Chance: 50%
Mario is Nintendo's flagship, and so it makes sense to add another character to the roster. Toad has been quite conspicuously missing from the cast and has been a popular character for some time now. While it can be argued that Toad is just a generic mook, Captain Toad is a unique character that can fill the demand for Toad without complaints that hinder regular Toad. Add in that Captain Toad is having a new release on the Switch in the near future and makes several appearances in Super Mario Odyssey, and I think his chances are pretty decent.

As for his inability to jump, I think the easiest remedy is to just make his "jumping" animation appear to be something else, like being bounced or dragged upward rather than a voluntary leap. Then you keep him true to his cannon while not cutting an essential aspect of the game.

Want: 40%
I, personally, feel that the Mario roster is a little bloated and would rather see faces from other series. I wouldn't be upset to see Captain Toad included, but I really don't desire him either.

---

Pauline:

Chance: 1%
I can't really give a 0% since anything is possible, however, Pauline is about as close to that as you can really get. Not only does she hail from two franchises that have far more popular, iconic, and interesting characters to choose from, she also lacks from that "what can this character do?" syndrome that many of the low appearance NPC characters have. In the games she does appear in, she really hasn't done anything of note that could translate to a playble fighter.

Want: 0%
If this were Mario Kart, I'd be all for her inclusion. But in Smash, she really has no place other than as a background element in a hypothetical New Donk City stage and/or a trophy noting her recent return and new mayoral role.

 

[Mario123311]

Pauline
Chance and Want: Abstain
I like Pauline, don’t get me wrong. But I don’t see any potential or inspiration to take for a moveset. Maybe at most Peach could gain her actual colors (hair included).

Captain Toad
Chance: 50%
Want: 55%
Probably the closest you are gonna get to “THE” Toad, Aside from giving the otherwise generic Toad an actual identity to stand out among the other copy/paste red Toads. ((I blame you, Wii U era.)) , I can see potential. However the problem I have is we already have way more than enough Mario characters as is. Rosalina and Bowser Jr. combined were already kinda stretching it... I’ll only take him if Doc leaves. Hell, I’ll love him more if I can use Toadette as an Alt costume. But as it stands, I think even Nintendo themselves are aware how devisive people got over the amount of Mario characters got in Smash 4. Unless Doc gets removed, I think it’d be best to play it safe and leave the Mario side of the roster as-is. And mind you I’m not even counting Yoshi, DK and Wario as part of the main Mario series representation.

Yes, I sorta count Captain Toad as “THE” Toad. Otherwise he really doesn’t even have an identity with how many others of his same species look literally 100% the same as his normal self.

Nominate: Klonoa X5

 

[Aetheri]

Pauline
Chance: 5%
I don't see her being that likely tbh...perhaps a background element like KK Slider or as an assist trophy but not a full fledged playable fighter...

Want: 0%
Meh...

---

Captain Toad
Chance: 15%
As Captain Toad himself I don't really feel its that likely...As Toad who implements elements from Captain Toad and other Toads into his moveset and possibly going the Koopalings route with alts that include Captain Toad...that's something I can see happening...

Want: 5%
I'd prefer my idea that I just talked about...

----

Takamaru: 68.5%

----

Zelda Newcomer x5

 

[-crump-]

I love Double Days, please keep em coming!

Pauline
Chance: 5%
Unless Sakurai really loved Odyssey, or Nintendo demands Pauline for some reason, I don’t think she has a chance. There could easily be a moveset there, but she’s not a popular request, and considering she would be up against an icon like Toad and a popularity behemoth like Waluigi, she doesn’t stand much of a chance.

But hey, Jump Up, Superstar will almost certainly be in the game, so at least Pauline’s voice will make an appearence.

Want: 5%
No thanks. She was a nice addition to Odyssey, but I have no desire to see her among Nintendo’s all-stars, especially when she’s contending with...

Captain Toad

Chance: 60%
If we’re getting a new Mario character, it’s gonna be him. Captain Toad got his own game, which is getting ported not once, but twice, and he’s appeared in main series Mario games consistently. He’s got plenty of moveset potential, and most importantly: He’s a Toad that ISN’T a generic space-filler. The good captain has a personality, notable characteristics... basically, he is his own, distinguishable character, something that the Toad from Mario Kart and sports titles cannot lay claim to. As Toad has always been a hotly requested charcter, this guy is the best way of finally doing that. Really, the only thing in his way is the abundance of Mario characters already present.

Want: 90%
I’m not a Toad fan in general, but something about Captain Toad is really endearing. I would love to play as this little guy in Smash. He’s more than earned his way in, imo.

Takumaru Predictions:
Chance: 40%
Want: 60%

Nominations:
Codename S.T.E.A.M rep: x4
Shovel Knight x1

 

[Morbi]

Pauline

Chance: 10%
It honestly depends less on Sakurai, in my opinion, and more to do with Nintendo. Are they planning on reusing her in some capacity? If yes, it genuinely makes sense. If no, it would be a strange choice indeed. I do not believe in any move-set based argument. You can give a character with a lot of potential (Ganondorf) a move-set that has no bearing on that character or a character that has virtually nothing to work with iconic attacks (Fox). You can make a non-character into a character (Wii Fit) or turn what is essentially a background element into a play-style (Duck Hunt). Nothing is off limits in that regard.

Want: 100%
I love her. More female characters is definitely something I want out of the roster. I do not believe she is entirely realistic and to that end, if she showed up, I would be legitimately shocked which is what Smash has always been about.

Captain Toad

Chance: 33%
The way I view this is that Mario is likely to get another character and it is a three horse race between Toad, Waluigi, and Daisy. Captain Toad would obviously be more ideal than regular Toad and potentially offer a unique game-play element, something Sakurai looks for.

Want: 50%
I want him a lot more than I want generic Toad. But when I think about how much more fun almost ANY other Mario character would be, it makes me a bit less excited to actual picture him in the game. Especially if they made him jump. I am keeping it in the middle to account for circumstances that I do not really want to account for.

 

[Laniv]

Pauline

Chance: 15%
I mean, she's a Donkey Kong character, right? Or has Odyssey pushed her into the realm of Mario character?

Want: 40%
I actually had an idea for her to be a Rosalina & Luma clone


Captain Toad:

Chance: 65%
Having your own game is certainly a boost.

Want: 95%
I only want a couple more Mario characters, and he's one of them.

Nominate Mewtwo x 5

 

[YoshiandToad]

I wonder if those who berate Captain Toad and Bandana Dee for being generic would do the same for Yoshi if he wasn't added yet?

Say what you will about Dee and Captain Toad being 'generic species in hat' it's still more to differentiate them as individuals amongst their races than Yoshi with his fellow green Yoshi brethren.

 

[MacDaddyNook]

I wonder if those who berate Captain Toad and Bandana Dee for being generic would do the same for Yoshi if he wasn't added yet?

Say what you will about Dee and Captain Toad being 'generic species in hat' it's still more to differentiate them as individuals amongst their races than Yoshi with his fellow green Yoshi brethren.

A very good point. However, even at the time of the first Smash Bros, Yoshi had his own game series with a handful of games, where as Captain Toad only has one game, ported but still the same game, and Bandana Dee has none.

 

[Shyy_Guy595]

Toad as himself has had the main role twice. First time in Wario's Woods.

I'll give my response later, hopefully

 

[CaptainAmerica]

I wonder if those who berate Captain Toad and Bandana Dee for being generic would do the same for Yoshi if he wasn't added yet?

Say what you will about Dee and Captain Toad being 'generic species in hat' it's still more to differentiate them as individuals amongst their races than Yoshi with his fellow green Yoshi brethren.

Maybe yes. After all, Yoshi really didn't come into his own until he got his own series, and started showing up in side games. The same can be said for Jigglypuff now that there are so many more Pokémon, and she's been left out of the spotlight so long.

Everyone has played different games, so a lot of people probably don't know about them as anything but generics. I haven't played much Mario, but I will say that I know Yoshi much better from Mario Party games than anything else, since in the main series, he's generic. I've also not played Kirby, so all I know of Dee is the fanbase here, and the only thing I know of Toad is that they're the generic minons of the mushroom kingdom and act as stage decorations on all of the Kart tracks.

I know it can be annoying for people to dismiss your favorites out of hand (I've got some of my favorites that I'm not expecting in becuase they're "one-game wonders" or "too new" or "Zelda already has too many reps" or "Sakurai said Ridley is too big!"), but Smash is looking at a lot of different series, so there will be a lot of different opinions. I tend to low-ball chances since I know I can't predict him (Bayonetta and Corrin both scored below 5% chance in the DLC RTC thread, while Wolf was in the 70s), but to think of these statements as personal attacks is taking it a bit far.

I will say that I hope you get what you want and prove everyone wrong. As a Ridley fan, I know how disappointing it can be to get continually brushed off, but I don't let it get to me anymore.

 

[Organization XIII]

I wonder if those who berate Captain Toad and Bandana Dee for being generic would do the same for Yoshi if he wasn't added yet?

Say what you will about Dee and Captain Toad being 'generic species in hat' it's still more to differentiate them as individuals amongst their races than Yoshi with his fellow green Yoshi brethren.

That's true but the difference is Yoshi was introduced as an individual and then part of a race whereas it's the opposite with the other 2. It's a subtle difference sure but it allows for people to view a Green Yoshi as distinct since he was introduced as distinct but the other 2 are more easily viewed as one of the crowd. Whether that's fair or not doesn't matter it's just how association works.

 

[Mario123311]

It’s better if you think of Captain Toad as “THE” Toad.

If we had regular Toad in Smash, people would complain more due to the lack of other species and NPC in Mario within the Wii U era. More imfamous within the Paper subseries. Captain Toad’s become sorta this recurring character and I feel he gives “The” Toad more of an identity than ever. Helps he’s partners with Toadette. My only problem is, again. The Mario side of the Smash roster since 4 is kinda bloated.