Decidueye
Chance: 82% - Gen 8 will be too late to get a mon in this time. Even if we do get a new game this year, I'm expecting a remake of some sorts before a fully new gen happens.
To me it's clear that TPC sees Decidueye as one of the frontrunning Pokemon of Gen 7. Let's take a look at what's going on in Decidueye's favor.
- Rowlet is the most popular Gen 7 Pokemon. No, it's not Decidueye itself, but it's the same line, and Decidueye's popularity isn't far behind. Rowlet itself also doesn't really have a bodytype that lends itself to Smash like it's final stage, so it's popularity will most likely contribute to Decidueye being pushed for a game like this instead.
- Decidueye was decided upon as THE Gen 7 representation for Pokken DX, as well as the big marketed new addition for DX. It's on the center of the boxart, was emphasized in it's reveal trailer, and competitors like Mimikyu and the Litten and Popplio lines were made into assists instead. It got the focus and marketing push, not them, not Tapu Koko, not Lycanroc, and not an UItra Beast.
- Decidueye's moveset is wholly unique to everything else on the Smash roster, and practically writes itself. Sakurai loves characters with unique fighting styles, and amongst Gen 7's offerings, a spectral archer with plant-based powers absolutely stands out amongst the competition. In this regard, I feel like Mimikyu sharing a Ghost type with Decidueye is actually a disadvantage. All of the spooky attacks and potential that Mimikyu has can just as easily be done by Decidueye, along with all of Decidueye's more unique offerings. All Mimikyu has over Decidueye is what, a stick to thump people with? It definitely feels, to me, that Sakurai would gravitate towards one over the other.
- Many of it's opponents fall off for one reason or another. Ultra Beasts are for the most part a set, and the ones that stick out most from the crowd, Nihilego and the box legends, all have very unworkable bodytypes for a game like this. Cheeto Puff Lycanroc has anime in it's favor, sure, but being quadrupedal without being cartoony enough to stand up like Duck Hunt or having vines to compensate for lacking hands like Ivysaur is going to be a point against it. Plus, the lacking originality of Cheeto Dog being an orange recolor of the Day form with a hair poof hampered it's popularity significantly. Incineroar is a less popular starter already passed over for Decidueye once before in Pokken while it's baby was an Assist, and has the unfortunate distinction of being a fire-based character in a game that already has plenty of those, a fire Pokemon among them. It's moveset potential is also lacking compared to Decidueye's. Sure it can do wrestling moves and cheap tricks like a heel, but there's much more interesting concepts to be explored with Decidueye's paranormal, plant-spawning archer abilities.
- With those out of the way, it's two biggest competitors, in my mind, are Mimikyu and Tapu Koko. Both are popular, have moveset potential, and are featured prominently in the games Sakurai will be drawing from. Mimikyu suffers from having a very awkward bodytype, and from Decidueye being able to use it's otherwise stand-out ghost moves just as well as it can. It's rampant popularity can't be denied, but considering it got made an assist in Pokken instead of a playable fighter despite that popularity, I get the feeling TPC doesn't see it as as much of a "fighter" as it does Decidueye. All that leaves is Tapu Koko, who I honestly think is the dark horse in the running for a Gen 7 slot. It has a workable body type, with awkward but usable hands and an upright stature, and has a sizable role in both the Sun and Moon anime as well as the games. In the anime, it's been watching over and teaching Ash regularly, making consistent appearances throughout the show. In the games it has even more, being the deity of the game's starting island, saving the player from falling to their death, and having important story showings during the Ultra Beast invasion and right after the player becomes champion. It's popularity is nothing to sneeze at either. The only thing I really see getting in Tapu Koko's way is it's electric typing, already shared with series mascot Pikachu, hampering it's moveset potential. Yes it'd obviously have a completely different moveset, but I can see there being worries about how to prevent design and visual overlap between two characters that use entirely lightning-based attacks.
Tl;dr: Decidueye has been previously chosen to be promoted over it's competition in fighting games, and I see very few scenarios in which that situation doesn't repeat itself, both due to it's own strengths as an option as well as it's competitors all falling off for one reason or another. Tapu Koko is an underrated threat that could upstage it, but I don't see that as very likely. None of the others come as close, I'd say.
Want: 85% - Decidueye's not my most wanted character, nor is it even my most wanted Pokemon (that's Deoxys but that'll never happen) but it's certainly up there. It was my choice for both SM and USUM, has moveset potential coming out the wazoo, and as an added bonus, would complete the starter type trio that's annoyingly missing it's grass rep right now. Not a point in it's favor chance-wise, but for want it gives it a bit more oomph.
Predictions:
Shulk: 84.57% - No way this guy leaves. He's going to take up the role as the Xenoblade franchise's Marth. He may not continue to be relevant with new protags rotating out all the time, he may not be the most popular, but he's the one that started it all. Expecting a few "Rex/Elma replaces him" types though tomorrow, otherwise this'd be even higher.
Nominations:
Dark Matter Blade x 5
