Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[Wyoming]

Zelda Newcomer:

Chance: 50%
Coin toss for me. Since Melee, we've been stuck with the same five characters as the Zelda representatives. Why is that? We truly will never know why, but I suppose it is down to Sakurai not feeling inspired by any of them as essential or as fighters. I think what might help this time is Hyrule Warriors - everyone was given detailed moves that could translate into Smash.

Although we were supposed to have Toon Zelda/Tetra in Brawl at some point, so that idea might be revisited. Especially if the theories of Link and possibly Zelda getting an overhaul/revamped are true. Toon Zelda would be an easy beacon for Zelda's old moveset should that happen.

As things stand however, I only feel comfortable with a 50/50 chance until we get more information.

Want: 50%
Depends who gets picked! I'd be happy with Impa, Lana or Ganon. Indifferent towards Midna and Toon Zelda/Tetra, and not too fond of Skull Kid, Ghirahim or a champion. Vaati would have been an interesting left-field choice, but there's just no way he will even be considered. He wasn't even considered for Zelda's spin-off!

I personally don't mind the five we have in Smash either, but a newcomer could be fun depending on who it is.

Decidueye prediction: 39.6%

Noms: Phoenix Wright x4, Black Shadow x1

 

[Capybara Gaming]

Zelda Newcomer:
Chance: 50% - it's possible. Right down the middle.
Want: 85% - I legitimately think Impa would be awesome. Same with Midna. Anyone else though... Eh.

Prediction: Decidueye
Chance: 63.27%
Want: 69.25%

Nominations:
Sora x5

 

[Mighty Moose]

Zelda Newcomer

Chance: 35%
I'm not optimistic, as it seems little has changed between Smash 4 development and Smash Switch development, so whatever stupid reason Sakurai had for not adding Zelda characters in Smash 4 is presumably still relevant to him. That said, we are running out of potential newcomers at this point and various Zelda characters have been popular

Want: 100%
Ganon is my #1 want for this and any other Smash game, he's a giant magic using monster with a massive trident from an underrepresented series, what's not to love? Controversial opinion, but every reason people want Ridley or K Rool in the game applies to him.
It doesn't even have to be Ganon though, any of Impa, Tetra, Midna, Lana, Skull Kid, Vaati etc etc would be fun (I know most of these are even more unlikely i'm just giving examples of fun characters)

Nominating Ganon x5

 

[Shyy_Guy595]

Odyssey did just as well as BOTW and recieved just as many good reviews (they literally have the same number on metacritic) yet I didn't see people giving Pauline 50s.

In my opinion, I think Zelda should get a newcomer. Does that mean they will? Eh. I honestly doubt it.

I'll abstain from rating cause I'm lazy

 

[Pennate]

I'll be pressed for time over the next few days. I won't be able to put much detail into my predictions, but I may return to them if I'm not too busy.

Concept: Zelda Newcomer

Chance: 30%

Want: 50%
I'd be happy to see Ganon, Vaati, Toon Zelda, Tetra, or Toon Ganondorf make an appearance; and I wouldn't object to most realistic choices. I have no desire for Impa, Tingle, or the BotW Champions to join the roster, though.

Nominations:
Excitebiker x2
Ganon x2
Concept: Decloned Ganondorf x1

 

[NeonBurrito]

Odyssey did just as well as BOTW and recieved just as many good reviews (they literally have the same number on metacritic) yet I didn't see people giving Pauline 50s.

Not only did Odyssey come later than BotW did, but Mario also got two newcomers and a returning veteran in Smash 4, for a total of seven characters (six unique, one clone), so demand for a new Mario character isn't very high compared to the Zelda series, who has had five characters (three unique, two clones) for the past nearly two decades now.

Also, Pauline faces a lot more competition from other, more relevant, unique, and/or popular Mario characters (Waluigi, Paper Mario, Captain Toad, etc.), whereas today is about a Zelda newcomer, period. Not a specific character. It only makes sense that today's average Chance% seems a lot higher.

 

[BandanaWaddleDee]

Zelda newcomer
Chance: 90%
I think it's beyond insane that Zelda didn't get a newcomer in Smash 4, especially when something like Fire Emblem got 4 more characters. I think there's no way we can go two Smash games in a row with no new character from Zelda of all franchises
Want: 75%
Varies depending on character

Decidueye Prediction: 56.45%

Nominations
Decloned Dark Pit x5

 

[Strider_Bond00J]

The Legend of Zelda Newcomer:

Chance: 70%
Given that Link appears to be sporting his Breath of the Wild look, I imagine that it's likely that the Legend of Zelda series will definitely see new content of some kind. I imagine that it's likely we'll see a newcomer from Breath of the Wild, given that it's the most recent and phenomenal acclaim all around.

The question is "Who?" Breath of the Wild has brought in a lot of new characters in the Champions - Urbosa, Daruk, Mipha and Revali - each of them has something to bring to the Smash Bros table and most of them are popular in their own right. This probably won't be resolved with a TMNT solution for Injustice 2 where they had the four turtles grouped together, but each was a different character in that game's roster.

I imagine they'll probably pick one of these Champions that could bring something new to the table - Urbosa could be an elegant scimitar and shield user supplemented with Thunder magic, Mipha could be a lancer and able to heal herself or other fighters, Revali an airborne archer (who could potentially clash with Decidueye), or Daruk as a heavyweight fighter who strikes with a massive blade like Ike can.

We'll see how it ends up, but I definitely think the Zelda series is due for a newcomer in the wake of BotW.

Want: 80%
No objection. I slightly favour Revali or Urbosa though, but I definitely think now's the best time for a new Zelda character.

 

[Erureido]

Zelda newcomer

Chance: 35%

There's a good number of Zelda characters that have some decent amount of requests and popularity behind them, but many of these characters tend to be one-timers that star in one major game and that's it; when they reappear, it's usually either in a remake or a spinoff. It's because of that I'm a bit more on the pessimistic side for the time being.

Want: 80%

Mostly depends on the character, but I've got a decent number that i'm interested in for this kind of thing. Heck, Revali and Tetra are among my most wanted.

------

Predictons

Decidueye (Pokemon): 63.45%

A very clear front-runner for the next Pokemon rep due to its relevancy and popularity. Competition is what'll be holding it back.

------

Nominations

Greninja (Pokemon): x5

 

[Smasher 101]

I'll have time for bigger write-ups eventually.

Zelda newcomer

Chance: 50%

This is something that I think can go either way.

Want: 50%

The series probably should get someone, but there are only a few I really am interested in and they're not super major wants so this is the most I can give.

Decidueye prediction: 64.57%

Nominations: Jibanyan x5

 

[Scamper52596]

Zelda Newcomer

Chance: 90%
I'm pretty confident we'll see a new addition to the Zelda roster because I'm convinced we've already seen him. I think Champion Link will be his own character with his own moveset. While I acknowledge that it's possible he could just be an updated form of Link or an alternate costume, I really don't believe that's going to be the case. Sure, this would mean that we'll probably have three separate Links on the roster, but I honestly doubt Sakurai is going to care about that. We almost had four Zeldas in Brawl. Breath of the Wild is the newest 3D Zelda game that, like Ocarina of Time when it first released, represents a new format and way to play Zelda games that the developers say they plan to stick with from here on out. It has also won many Game of the Year awards and is universally acclaimed. It seems pretty likely that it's going to get some attention in the newest Smash, and if OoT was important enough in the Zelda franchise's history to get a staple character in Smash (Sheik) I think Breath of the Wild has proven itself to be important enough to get character representation in Smash as well.

With how different Link is in BotW it seems like an odd choice to me for him to play similarly to how Link has played in all previous Smash titles. There's plenty of content to work with in BotW to give Champion Link a unique moveset, and why would they tease him in the announcement trailer for the newest iteration of Smash if they weren't going to do more with him than just change his look and maybe tweak his moveset a little? Seems like it would create false expectations for the character being teased from the very first trailer if there wasn't much to him.

Just to be clear, this is all just what I personally believe and what I got from Champion Link's tease in the trailer. I'm completely open to other possibilities, and I've never been rooting for Champion Link to be playable. Before the announcement trailer I thought it was more likely that we'd simply go another Smash title without a new Zelda character. I'm down with the idea of Link, Zelda, and Ganondorf getting updated appearances and movesets with Toon Link and Toon Zelda keeping their legacy movesets. I've seen that idea get tossed around, and I'm all for it. I just don't think that's going to happen based on what we currently know. My opinion is subject to change once we learn more of course, but when we get to the point where they finally show this game off again I'm sure we're going to get our answers as to what's going on with Link in the announcement trailer and it'll be revealed what it ultimately means for the Zelda franchise in Smash this time.
I'll give the concept of a new Zelda character in Smash for Switch a 90%. Based on what we know it seems pretty likely to me, but let's see what happens...

Want: 100%
It's difficult to rate this at 100% because there are some Zelda characters I'd be overjoyed with seeing become playable, but then there are others that I find to be boring suggestions and wouldn't be happy with their inclusion at all. Champion Link I'm pretty indifferent towards. As long as he's fun and different than the other Links I don't mind his inclusion. Still, I've been rooting for Zelda to get an additional character since before Smash for Wii U/3DS came out and I think it might be time.

Prediction
Decidueye: 51.3%

Nominations
Tetra x 3
Toon Zelda x 2

 

[Indefinite Minimum]

Zelda Newcomer

Chance: 50%
It's gonna be Tingle

Want: 100%
It's gonna be Tingle

Nominations:
Dark Matter Blade x3
Dragonite x2

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Sorry for the late day ending, was traveling last night, calcs will be up today.

Zelda Newcomer
55% Chance
Abstain Want

Not gonna write too much, still so tired after pax.
Nominating Spyro x 5
Day over
Please rate Decidueye in Chance and want and predict Shulks chances.

 

[BluePikmin11]

In terms of a Generation 7 newcomer getting in as of now, it is pretty likely to happen. I definitely see Decidueye chosen, being one of the most popular Generation 7 Pokemon, and the only one of that generation to appear as a playable fighter in the Pokken Switch game. I personally do not know enough about Pokemon Gen. 7 to give further input on Decidueye’s matter. But what I do know that Game Freak is that they are generally strict on decision making, and if it came down to what GF wants to add in for a Generation 7 newcomer, it will most likely be Decidueye.

Still, I feel the possibility of a Generation 8 newcomer is there with Pokemon Switch possibly coming in 2018, making Decidueye’s chances 50/50. Everything lines up for Decidueye’s inclusion, but it ultimately hangs on Game Freak’s decisions.

x5 Octolings

 

[Opossum]

Decidueye time!

Chance: 85%

I 100% believe we're getting a Gen VII Pokémon. Generation VIII was revealed WAYYYYYY TOO LATE TO BE IN SMASH. That is NOT comparable to Greninja's situation. For all we know the new gen won't come out until 2019, and you can bet your bottom dollar that Game Freak isn't gonna let a Pokémon DEBUT in Smash.

Decidueye is popular and has a lot it can bring to the table.

Want: 100%
Hell yeah ghost grass archer owl.

Predicting a 93 for Shulk
Nominating Henry Fleming x5

 

[Dr. Jojo Phantasma]

Decidueye
Chances: 90%
As Smash 5 started development in 2016 and Pokemon Sun and Moon released in the same year, of course someone from Gen 7 would be a lock, it all is just a question of who and the biggest frontrunner is Decidueye. He is unique and would represent a grass type to complete the trio starter types. His biggest competitors are Incineroar and Mimikyu, but I think being in Pokken also helps him out.

Want: 100%
He and Primarina are tied for my favorite Alolan final form starters, but I definitely want our ghostly owl archer in the game. I won't have any grievences if Mimikyu wins out because I also support it.

x5 to Geno

 

[Llort A. Ton]

Owl Boy

Chance- 65%
In terms of gen 7, I think he has an edge on all other Pokemon. But would Game Freak want an Ultra Beast added to Smash Bros instead to represent the major game changes added to gen 7? He seems like a no brainer, but ill give him a 65 since theres always several other Pokemon to consider, now theres Ultra Beasts, and wouldnt he be much like Greninja, he would have had to have been decided before he was the breakout popular Pokemon (early-mid 2016)?

Want- 80%
Ill probably accept any Pokemon they add since Im not too much into it these days, but he seems pretty cool.

She Hulk- 96.12%

Doomguy X 4
Thwomp X 1

 

[CaptainAmerica]

Revali's Bro

Chance: 75%
Want: 60%

Decidueye makes all kinds of sense.

If they started on the game back in 2016, that was right around when Sun/Moon came out. They've had plenty of time to gauge popularity, and Dec's one of the highest - he made it into Pokken, for one. Plus, he's got a great design.

I'm not going to make the whole "we need a grass starter" argument since types are irrelevant with the trainer's absence (of course, I'd love that to change as well). Dec's only competition is Mimikyu, who may be better suited for a Pokéball summon, and Incineroar, who doesn't bring as much unique, so I don't really see anything in his way.

Yes, Greninja was added before Gen 6 was out, but Gen 6 was released in Oct 2013, and Sm4sh came out Sept 14. Gen 8 hasn't announced anything other than "it is a thing," so it's looking like a Gen 7 will be in, and Dec's the clear front-runner.

Shulk Prediction: 83.5%
Nom: Mewtwo x5

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

Decidueye

Chance: 85%

I'd say he'd be the most likely Gen 7 mon to get the treatment. (No, I don't mean the random nerfs)

Want: ABSTAIN

Chose Rowlett as my S&M starter... but he hasn't evolved because I just kinda stopped playing after the first trial. Maybe that first island was a bit too slow and boring for me. I likely won't revisit the game till I find a way to fix my circlepad.

Predictions for Shulk: 76.42%

Nominations: Hades x5

 

[Mario & Sonic Guy]

Decidueye
Want: 10%
Chance: 10%

Decidueye really isn't all that special, despite of its Pokken Tournament DX appearance. While it's true that Greninja was considered for Smash 3DS / Wii U before its debut in the first Pokemon movie for the Kalos saga, and didn't get its Battle Bond form until after Smash 3DS / Wii U was all done with its DLC, at least it has some new stuff that could help keep it around.

Anyway, even to this very day, Decidueye doesn't have an anime appearance yet in the Alola saga, which is something that Incineroar, Lycanroc, Mimikyu, and even Buzzwole have managed to receive. And there's always the possibility that Ash's Rowlet will never evolve, as it is by far, the most popular 7th generation Pokemon right now; Decidueye isn't even in the top 10.

I could go on further, but in the end, I feel that Decidueye is overrated, and the only real reason it's being mentioned is because it's the newest Grass-type starter, and Smash 3DS / Wii U gave Ivysaur the boot.

 

[Opossum]

Decidueye
Want: 10%
Chance: 10%

Decidueye really isn't all that special, despite of its Pokken Tournament DX appearance. While it's true that Greninja was considered for Smash 3DS / Wii U before its debut in the first Pokemon movie for the Kalos saga, and didn't get its Battle Bond form until after Smash 3DS / Wii U was all done with its DLC, at least it has some new stuff that could help keep it around.

Anyway, even to this very day, Decidueye doesn't have an anime appearance yet in the Alola saga, which is something that Incineroar, Lycanroc, Mimikyu, and even Buzzwole have managed to receive. And there's always the possibility that Ash's Rowlet will never evolve, as it is by far, the most popular 7th generation Pokemon right now; Decidueye isn't even in the top 10.

I could go on further, but in the end, I feel that Decidueye is overrated, and the only real reason it's being mentioned is because it's the newest Grass-type starter, and Smash 3DS / Wii U gave Ivysaur the boot.

And because it offers a play style that no one else has, and as such may draw Sakurai's eye.


Your bias is showing if you think the typing is the ONLY reason people bring him up.

 

[Quetzal77]

Decidueye
Chance: 65%
He is one of the top gen 7 contenders, but even then he isn't guaranteed. If Pokemon Switch isn't revealed at E3 then I'm assuming he or another gen 7 Pokemon will be confirmed for Smash. Until then I think there's still time for Pokemon Switch to be shown and gen 7 will likely be skipped in terms of playable characters.

Want: 50%
I know we're getting a Pokemon character, but I don't have a preference as to who it is. Decidueye is cool.

Shulk prediction: 74.76%

Nominations: Pyra/Mythra (without Rex) x5

 

[Imadethistoseealeak]

Decidueye

Chance : 85%

I am positive we will get a gen 7 rep, and Decidueye is definitely the most speculated. However he doesn't really seem the most popular (it seems like more people think he will be in than necessarily want him in). As people have already said he's not as popular as Greninja was and isn't as big in the games/anime as other Pokemon. I still think he is likely, just not necessarily more likely as other options like Mimikyu.

Want : 75%

I was originally a 100% Decideueye supporter but then I realized the potential of Mimikyu who is actually one of my favorite Pokemon. But you can count me in for being hyped that the two most likely Pokemon Sun and Moon reps are ghost types!

 

[Deleted member]

Robin Hoot

Chance: 75%
Given that Smash Switch will get released before Generation 8 becomes a thing, it's pretty likely we'll get a 7th Pokémon rep from the Alola games.
The reason I don't give a higher rate in chance is because there's kind of a competition for being the Gen 7 rep, between Decidueye, but also Mimikyu, Tapu Koko, Incineroar, Zeraora and even an Ultra Beast.

Want: 95%
I don't want it just for "muh completing the starter type trifecta" and "muh popular starter", but also because he's genuinely my top favorite starter (the fact it's also partly ghost-type helps a lot) and would bring lots of new gameplay potential in Smash.
Also, having more bird-like characters in the roster is always a plus aesthetically.


Noms:
Music: Final Destination (Ver . 2) x5

Shulk prediction:
89.4%

 

[Mario & Sonic Guy]

And because it offers a play style that no one else has, and as such may draw Sakurai's eye.


Your bias is showing if you think the typing is the ONLY reason people bring him up.

I guess it could feel like people only want Decidueye, because they want a playable Grass-type fighter. Of course, it's not the only possible Grass-type rep out there, as the Treecko family could also be considered the playable role. However, making Sceptile playable would really anger the Blaziken fans, unless it too became playable.

 

[Dr. Jojo Phantasma]

Well, the only reason I brought up him being a grass type is factoring into its uniqueness. It will only matter if Sakurai holds Decidueye and Incineroar in equal regard and considers the logic of not having a grass type as a reason to choose him over Incineroar. I don't think not having appearances in the anime and not being in the top ten Gen 7 popularity list matters at all because Decidueye would be included in Smash before his status was developed after S/M came out.

 

[-crump-]

Decidueye
Chance: 30%
I honestly don’t understand people who truly think Decidueye is a clear, obvious choice. Yes, I have no doubt Gen 7 will get a new rep... But aside from an appearence in Pokken, Robin Hoot doesn’t have much in the way of official support or marketing, at least not anymore so than the other popular candidates.

If the anime is the deciding factor, it’ll be Incineroar. If it’s marketing power, then surely Mimikyu is more likely. If Sakurai and TPC want to show off the newest, most unique additions to modern Pokemon, we may get an Ultra Beast.

Want: 75%
I do want a Grass starter to finish off the trio. Archers, ghosts, and owls are all things that I like, so the idea excites me... I’m just not holding my breath. Plus, I would be just as happy with Mimikyu, or a UB.

Predictions:
Shulk- 93%

noms:
Henry Fleming x5

 

[Deleted member]

Abstaining from Decidueye.

Prediction:

Shulk - 93.5%

At least one "Rex might replace Shulk" argument - 100%

Nomination: Simon Belmont x5

 

[colder_than_ice]

Decidueye
Chance: 30% - I consider him to be the most likely Pokemon to get in, but I also feel that he’s far from guaranteed. There’s always a ton of competition for a Pokémon rep and they tend to be by far the most unpredictable of any franchise. Very few people on these boards were expecting Greninja for SSB4 or Pokemon Trainer for Brawl. It also doesn’t help that Decidueye has gotten surprisingly little support from marketing aside from his appearance in Pokken.
Want: 90% - Because he’s a ghost apparently.

Shulk prediction: 97%

Nominations: New story mode x5

 

[Aetheri]

Decidueye

Chance: 55%
I'm not going to go so far to say he's a shoo-in...However he's a pokemon from the latest Generation of games with a potential moveset that make shim a unique fighter being both an archer and a bird. Decidueye's grass typing is a mere convenience...

The reason why he's not higher is because there are a couple others that may be chosen instead like Incineroar with his whole wrestler aesthetic, Mimikyu being INSANELY popular...as well as one of the Lycanroc forms possibly getting in since Game Freak seems to be pushing Lycanroc quite a bit, considering the new form added in USUM, it's current role in the anime (which Decidueye currently lacks I might add), and it's exclusive Z-move, and still having potential for a unique moveset...

I also don't see them adding in a Pokemon from Gen 8 because even though Greninja was chosen very early in Gen 6's development we still played the games before we knew about his role in smash...We have no knowledge whatsoever of anything from generation 8 at all and Game Freak likes to reveal things on their own terms, and I don't see them revealing a pokemon in a crossover fighter that isn't even part of the Pokemon franchise (as big as smash is)...It'll be a Gen 7 mon more than likely, Gen 8 could be DLC later down the line depending on if there's any Pokemon making waves when it releases or not...

Want: 70%
He'd be cool...An Owl-man Grass/Ghost Archer...Of course as the <obligatory grass type to complete the trio> I'd prefer Sceptile who is my favourite starter pokemon, but as a Pokemon there are plenty of other candidates that I would prefer as well...

----

Predictions:
Shulk-78.60%

----

Dark Samus x5

 

[AlphaSSB]

Decidueye

Chance: 50% - Highest I'll go. Decidueye is perhaps one of the most likely newcomers for Smash Switch. Looking at Greninja, Pokemon X & Y began development in 2010, and was released in 2013. Smash 4 began development in 2012 with a release in 2014. Greninja was picked as a new Pokemon character out of a few different designs sent to him from the Pokemon Co. I can see a similar situation with Decidueye. Smash Switch supposedly began development in 2016, and Pokemon Sun & Moon began development after Pokemon Omega Ruby & Alpha Sapphire was completed in 2014. So I'd say that the timing here is pretty strong.

Plus, Sakurai has knowledge of the 'starter trio', evidenced with Pokemon Trainer, so I'm sure he'd probably look a bit more into the new Grass starter if he plans on keeping Greninja and Charizard around. Though the idea of completing the trio wouldn't be the sole deciding factor, just a small possible bonus.

The only thing I can see preventing Greninja from getting in is if he sees more potential in another Pokemon, such as Incineroar, or if he can't figure out a good moveset to make Decidueye work. The latter is a much weaker point, though, seeing as he can make characters such as the Wii Fit Trainer and the Duck Hunt dog work.

Want: 100% - Probably my 3rd favorite grass starter, behind Sceptile (1st) and Chesnaught (2nd), and I'd love to see the starter trio completed. Plus, he has great moveset potential, with a chance to be a true archery based character, rather than just having an archery based special.

Nominations: New Story Mode x5

 

[MasterOfKnees]

Decidueye:

Chance: 70% - Probably the highest I'll go for a newcomer. He's marketable, popular, would bring in a unique playstyle, and Gen 8 is coming out too late for character representation at launch. The only thing that could go against him is if Sakurai sees even more potential in another Pokémon like Mimikyu or Incineroar, but I think even then the other points might still be able to push Decidueye in.

Want: 50% - Gen 7 is my least favorite Pokémon generation, and Decidueye is one of several Pokémon that is just okay-ish. He's still my favorite starter from the generation, and Grass is one of my favorite types, so I wouldn't be opposed to him, but he wouldn't excite me either.

Nominations:
Lucina x5

 

[Rockaphin]

Decidueye:

Chance: 75%

Want: 80%

Not my most wanted Pokemon newcomer, but I did pick Rowlet due to the design of Decidueye.

Nomination:
Ken Masters Alt Costume for Ryu x3
Snorlax x2

 

[Deleted member]

Oh boy, it's finally happening, isn't it? I suppose I'll add some appropriate music for this occasion....

My favorite song from one of my favorite games of all time.
Without further ado, let's get started with the rating.

Chance: 80%
I believe people are severely overestimating his chances. Allow me to explain why.
I have little to no doubt that this game's Pokemon newcomer will be from Gen 7. The roster was definetly finalized either in late 2016 or early 2017, when Gen 7 was brand new and Gen 8 was probably not eve a concept.
Decidueye is often seen as the frontrunner for a Gen 7 newcomer, but why? Well, there are a couple of reasons, and allow me to present a counter argument for some of them.

1. Decidueye is the most popular Alolan starter

Well... A few months ago, I would've said the same thing. However, after the results of the japanese Pokemon popularity poll got published, I'm not too sure how true that statement is anymore.

Spoiler

Notice how Primarina and Incineroar both placed very high in the poll, while Decidueye didn't at all.

Now, I'm not saying it's gonna affect Smash in any way - we don't know how many people voted in it, and the poll was only conducted a few months ago (which was without a doubt too late to affect the project plan) - I'm just showing that the "most popular starter" argument is not true in some circles.
Also, who says Sakurai has to choose starters? Gen 7 has many unique options to choose from, and just because he picked a starter last time doesn't mean it's a tradition.

2. He was in Pokken

Remember when Sceptile got into both Pokken and Smash?
I sure as hell don't. I wonder why... Oh wait, it didn't happen. I'm STILL waiting for Greninja to get in as DLC for that game.

3. He completes the starter type trio

...Seriously? Do you even KNOW how Sakurai chooses his characters?
In case you're unaware, characters are chosen for their unique abilities rather than what they "represent", so that argument doesn't hold any water.

However, Decidueye has multiple things going for him that in my opinion raise his chances of being in Smash.

1. Being a starter DOES make him a prominent Pokemon in his generation, so I have little doubt that he will be considered.
2. Decidueye does bring some unique things to the table, being a full blown archer character with a heavy emphasis on projectile zoning.
3. Greninja had nothing going for him when he was picked, so it is very possible that every counter argument I presented would be absolutely worthless,
4. Call me a conspiracy theorist, but if Bandai Namco is developing the game again they could easily use his Pokken render in Smash.

He does face some stiff competition from fellow starter Incineroar, Lycanroc, and Mimikyu, but there are probably a bunch of other Gen 7 Pokemon that I'm sleeping on. Either way, I think he has a decent shot, but he's definetly NOT the shoo-in everyone makes him out to be.

Want: 100%
Unbiased mode deactiviated.
Along with Isaac, Decidueye is my absolute most wanted newcomer. I loved its design ever since it got leaked and was really excited when it was revealed to be a ghost type (my favorite Pokemon type). Rowlet was the starter I chose in my very first playthrough of Pokemon Sun, and Decidueye did not disappoint at the slightest when I used it, despite the questionable stats.
I love Decidueye so much, in fact, that I consider him to be:

1. My favorite Alolan starter
2. My favorite Grass starter
3. My favorite Grass type in general
4. My favorite Alolan Pokemon
5. My second favorite starter Pokemon
6. My 3rd favorite Pokemon overall

I also think he could be very interesting with a moveset mostly based around shooting arrows. He'd be nothing like Pit guys, I made a moveset for him that's still incomplete but I can definetly tell you right now that he'd play NOTHING like Pit.

Everyone is calling him a flavor of the month grass starter bandwagon when honestly, I can't think of a more genuine support I can show to a character. Most if not all of the characters I have on my top 10 are characters I kinda jumped on their bandwagons and later looked into their games and thought "they'd be really cool in Smash". Decidueye being in Smash was something I thought about only AFTER I played his game.
Also, while a trivial factor in terms of how much it affects my want score, I do think completing the starter type trio would be nice.

There's no way I'd take over his support thread if being a grass starter was the only reason I wanted him.

Nominating Gooey x5

Aaaand that's going to be my last RTC post in a while. I need to study properly.

 

[Runic_SSB]

Decidueye

Chance: 65%
We're definitely getting a new Pokemon, and it's either gonna be Decidueye, Mimikyu, or a Gen 8 Pokemon.

Want: 35%
I don't really care about Decidueye. I want either Mimikyu or Buzzwole.

Shulk prediction: 85%

Nominations

Travis Touchdown x2

Funky Kong x3

 

[Organization XIII]

Chance: 70%
Decidueye is a popular pokemon and the starter for the current gen of pokemon. That gives him a good shot at being playable right there but he isn't a shoo-in. He faces competition from Mimikyu. I think Decidueye would be who the devs choose but I could be wrong. There's also the next gen of pokemon and Sakurai has made characters appear in Smash before their game is released so it could happen but I don't think it will. And there is the possibility that we don't get a new pokemon. Just because it hasn't happened doesn't mean it won't. Basically the short version is I view the other possibilities as unlikely so Decidueye gets a high score but not like 90 because there are other possibilities.

Want:0%
I hate Sun and Moon. I really do. I would be fine with no pokemon from that game at all. That being said I chose Litten as my starter so Decidueye is Hau's pokemon in my eyes. Hau is 90% what I hated about Sun and Moon so I'm a bit biased towards Decidueye more than the rest. If he gets in it won't kill me I'd just rather not see it.


noms: Tethu X5

Prediction-Shulk 87%

 

[ssbashworld]

Quick catch up

Decidueye
Chances: 50%
Want: 5%

Zelda Newcomer
Chances: 70%
Want: 100%

Shovel Knight
Chances: 50%
Want: 50%

Nomination: Linkle X5

 

[zipzapsparkle]

Decidueye

Chance 50%
Want 0%

A pokemon will definitely happen but he’s not the only front runner either and other pokemon are just as popular and characters for series like pokemon and FE are tougher to predict because they always have a new gen.

Kamek x2
Cranky x3

 

[Depressed Gengar]

Decidueye Chance: 15%
People are definitely overestimating him and underestimating his competition.

First off, his popularity... basically means nothing. At the time the roster was most likely picked, Decidueye wasn't the frequently requested owl he is now. It was only after Sun and Moon's release that he started getting much attention, and even then it still took a few months for him to get to the level he's at. I also absolutely cannot see him making it into DLC, where his support would actually help him, if he didn't make the main roster, especially if Gen 7 didn't get a new 'mon in the main game. Even if Gen 8 still wouldn't stand a legitimate chance by then, the fact that Sakurai could've prioritized someone else/ didn't bother with Gen 7, when Sakurai's definitely going to be going over Decidueye, more or less says Sakurai didn't deem him as special.

And now for his competition, and it's bigger than people like to claim it is. People keep on insisting Decidueye's the only unique one of Gen 7 when a heel wrestler, a ghost with a disguise that blocks hits, and a parasite with numerous toxins at its disposal can definitely be unique too. And even ignoring that, considering the time the roster was most likely decided, Sun and Moon were farther in development than X and Y were, meaning Game Freak likely had their mascots of the generation planned instead of what happened last time when it was basically just finalized art, and I have no doubt that Mimikyu, Lycanroc, and probably even Incineroar (Mostly because the concept art leaked online had Incineroar with Ash and Mallow while the others didn't, and considering the fact that Ash's Litten recently evolved into Torracat, it seems Ash is going to get an Incineroar eventually). While I don't think Lycanroc can stand out enough, Mimikyu and Incineroar sure can, and the fact that Game Freak most likely suggested them gives them, at worst, a slight edge over Decidueye, if not then a big one.

"BUT WHAT ABOUT POKKEN?! THAT MATTERS, RIGHT?!"

Well... that's actually not easy to tell. It would only matter Decidueye's inclusion was planned ahead of time of Smash's roster decision, but I don't believe anything has been said about that. Could've been before, could've been after. And I'm not sure if it'd be much of an influence anyways.

Want: 0%

... Wow, after mentioning Nihilego and it's toxins, I suddenly want it more. Didn't anticipate that happening today. But Vikavolt is still the best Gen 7 Pokémon.

Shulk Prediction: 90%

Nominations: Dr. Eggman X5

 

[chemo]

Decidueye

Chance: 70%

He seems to be the popular new Pokemon at the moment, but it's not like he isn't facing competition.

Want: 65%

I'm not a fan of Pokemon as a whole, but I've liked most of the characters and their movesets that have made it into Smash, so why not? Though I don't really care all that much if it's Decidueye that makes it in or not.

Predictions:

Shulk (Veteran)
Chance: 87.61%
Want: 89.79%

Nomination:

Doomguy x5