Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[Tew]

Decidueye Chances:
70%
To me he is one of the most likeliest, if not the likeliest newcomers. (I still can't give more than 70% bc Smash is just so unpredictable) First of all I think we will definitely get a Pokemon Newcomer. There are many Pkmn that I think are possible, but only a few that stand out or seem more likely to me. For example:
-) Gen 8 Pkmn
But: We don't even know if the next game will be a new Gen or will have any new Pkmn. Furthermore it might be too late for one.
-) Zeraora
But: We already have a similar shaped Pkmn (Lucario) and an electro Pkmn (Pikachu)
-) Zoroark
But: It's time is over
-) Sceptile
But: Also a bit too late

Decidueye on the other hand has many pros:
-) Appears in Pokken
-) Unique moveset possibilitiy
-) Completes the Starter Trio
-) No grass Pkmn yet
-) Bodyform fits into smash
-) Appears in the currently most recent games
-) Bigger role in the anime
-) Fan favourite
-) Probably already existed when they started working on Smash 5

Decidueye Want:
100%
One of my favourite Pkmn. Great design, unique moveset options. And I love archery as well as owls (second favourite bird). There are Pkmn I would want to see more like Weavile, but their chances are just too low to hope for them.


Shulk Predict:
84,93%

Nominations:
5x Fjorm

 

[TheFritzle]

Decidueye chances:
75%

Decidueye want:
60%

Shulk prediction:
91.48%

Nomination:
Ashley x5

 

[ZealousGamer]

Decidueye

Chances 70%: quite likely.

Want 40%: I'd rather have Sceptile as the Grass Starter. (without Mega Evolution of course.)

Nominations:
Jibanyan 5x

 

[Al-kīmiyā']

Decidueye want: 0% (4-10*)

Zelda should be revamped as an archer. I don't care much about Decidueye.

Nominations:

Decloned Ganondorf x5

* Indicates percentage penalty for potentially taking a slot from most wanted characters

 

[Ghirahilda]

Decidueye
Chance: 60%
His chances are pretty high, he is cool, a Grass starter, got a lot of promotion (just on the anime that he is not being promoted)
Have to compete with Mimikyu, Incineroar (he is promoted a lot on the anime), Gen 8 pokémon, Zeraora, Also if every pokémon returns, well, it is 5 slots for pokemon already... I don't know, I dunno

Want: 50%
Not my favorite but I would be happy anyway.

Nominations:
Concept: Octopath Traveller character x5

Prediction: Who I need to predict? I dunno again. Where are the calcs from past predictions???

 

[Smashoperatingbuddy123]

Chance 80%

Clearly the most popular of the most current generation

Want 100%

Pokémon are always welcome on my book

 

[Xenigma]

Missed the last two days, but now that I'm back from my Isaac hunting trip PAX East, I'm ready to get back to rating!

Decidueye
Chance - 50%
While I'm reluctant to call any Pokemon newcomer a sure thing, it sure feels like this is the most likely newcomer from a series that has always gotten at least one unique newcomer per Smash game. Decidueye just seems to check off all the boxes: popular, high moveset potential, is from the most recent Pokemon generation, completes the Smash starter trio alongside Charizard and Greninja, and appears in the recent Pokken Tournament DX. Notably with the latter, Decidueye was the only brand new character in the game at launch (barring the previously arcade-exclusive characters) and is featured dead-center in the game's box art.

The big reason that I won't call Decidueye a lock is the simple truth that Pokemon is chock full of potential Smash characters, something made all the more obvious by the existence of Pokken and it's current playable roster of 23. Logic seemingly dictates this will be the inclusion, but I can't in good conscience rate it higher than a coinflip because there is too much potential of Sakurai going in a different direction than expected.

Want - 90%
Were I not a fanboy of Blaziken and Gardevoir/Gallade in particular this would probably be a solid 100%. I'm honestly kind of disappointed in myself for not thinking of it before seeing the nominations/support thread. Decidueye is practically a perfect selection for the roster, and one I for sure would want to play.

Nominations - Lucina x5
That should push her all the way to 200 votes!

Shulk Predictions - 94% Chance, 75% Want
Assuming he's actually what we're rating tomorrow. I'm trying to think of a good reason he wouldn't return and all I'm coming up with is Smash for Switch having a smaller base roster than Sm4sh, which is barely worth considering since it would invalidate all our ratings.

 

[Kirby Dragons]

Chance: 45%

I am starting to waver away from Decidueye being likely, it's not popular in Japan, and other Gen 7 Pokemon are equally unique. It did get into Pokken though.

Want: 55%

Only if it uses a decent variety of trick arrows. But even then, I'd rather have Sceptile. It'd do a better job at being plant-based.

Nominations: Urban Champion x5

 

[andimidna]

Decidueye:
One of the 4 newcomers I expect more than not
Reasons have all been said already
Chance: 60%
Want: 95%
I picked Popplio, but it was a close pick between him and Rowlet. I love both lines a lot. Plus, Sun was actually my first Pokemon game lol
Shulk prediction: 93%
Should be higher than ICs tbh. He poses no possible problems. Expecting him to be replaced would have been like Ike replacing Marth tf
x3 Azura
x2 Sylux

 

[CrusherMania1592]

Decidueye

Chance: 55%

I'm seeing a possibility Pokemon won't get a new rep, but they've always got a new rep in every game. THere's just too many to choose from so I am curious how this one will work

Want: 100%

To complete the unholy starter triangle, bow moveset potential, and add a Ghost type to the game? Yes!


Shulk Predictions: 93.5%

Nominations

Zeraora x5

 

[Shyy_Guy595]

Not only did Odyssey come later than BotW did, but Mario also got two newcomers and a returning veteran in Smash 4, for a total of seven characters (six unique, one clone), so demand for a new Mario character isn't very high compared to the Zelda series, who has had five characters (three unique, two clones) for the past nearly two decades now.

Also, Pauline faces a lot more competition from other, more relevant, unique, and/or popular Mario characters (Waluigi, Paper Mario, Captain Toad, etc.), whereas today is about a Zelda newcomer, period. Not a specific character. It only makes sense that today's average Chance% seems a lot higher.

True enough.

Also, Decidueye seems likely enough.

 

[Troykv]

I'll abstain Decidueye because Pokémon is the wild card when we talk about Newcomers... Pokémon has a guaranted space in Smash Bros... but... who?

Prediciton time!

Shulk: 90.5% (Shulk only would don't appear for a massive problem with priorities)

Nomination time!

Micaiah (Fire Emblem) x5

 

[Indefinite Minimum]

Dediciudyee

Chance: 30%
He's the new cool starter, but Pokemon for switch might usurp him.

Want: 35.69%
The buff cat is cooler tbh but at the same time there's no grass starter in smash and it would balance out the fire/water/grass trio and i'm kinda torn now actually

Nomination:
Dark Matter Blade x3
Dragonite x2

 

[Opossum]

Dediciudyee

Chance: 30%
He's the new cool starter, but Pokemon for switch might usurp him.

Want: 35.69%
The buff cat is cooler tbh but at the same time there's no grass starter in smash and it would balance out the fire/water/grass trio and i'm kinda torn now actually

Nomination:
Dark Matter Blade x3
Dragonite x2

Considering Pokémon for Switch hasn't even been shown yet and may not even come out until late next year, along with the fact that the roster was likely decided in 2016, I'd say a Gen VIII Pokémon for sure isn't happening, at least not in the base game.

 

[PsySmasher]

Decidueye

Chance: 75%
It’s pretty likely we’re going to get a Gen 7 Pokemon or a Grass starter this game. Decidueye fills both those rolls. Plus, it is the sole playable Pokemon from Gen 7 in Pokken DX (it technically was the ONLY “new” character in the game prior to DLC since the 5 additional characters not in the Wii U version were playable in arcades). However, the unpredictability of The Pokemon Company and candidates such as Mimikyu, Lycanroc, Zeraora, Sceptile and Tapu Koko prevent me from rating it any higher.

Want: 75%
I’m still pretty salty that Sceptile’s chances in Smash were completely decimated by this owl. That being said, Decidueye could offer a pretty unique moveset.

Shulk Prediction: 88.88%
The only reason this isn’t higher is because the minority of people that think that he’ll be replaced by Rex/Pyra or Elma will drag the average down slightly.

Nominations:
Ashley (WarioWare) x 3
Arle Nadja x 2

 

[TCT~Phantom]

The Rest of the Calcs are in

Chibi Robo
21.26% Chance
55.47% Wamt

Shovel Knight
22.88% Chance
45.94% Want

Concept Zelda Newcomer
49.33% Chance
74.48% Want

So Shovel Knight outpreformed Shantae in chance but was pretty damn close in Want. Chibi Robo knocked Crash out of the Top Ten of Want, and a Zelda Newcomer is now the most wanted and the least likely concept we have rated. Overall a neat weekend.

wildvine47 gets extra noms for Chibi Robo. @Pikablu Pikachu gets extra noms for Shovel Knight. @Nimbostratus gets noms for Concept: Zelda Newcomer.

Now onto the bird.

Decidueye

55% Chance

To be honest, I think it is 100% between him and Mimikyu. Decidueye imo has a very slight edge off of the fact that it is a starter, which means that so many more people are going to see it. But Mimikyu is some fierce competition. I can easily see either of the two making it into smash. Also I feel that Gen 8 is gonna be too late, making the two even more likely. Heck, I think we might get both.

100% Want

A great pokemon, either my favorite or second favorite grass starter, the only real competition is Sceptile as a grass starter for my heart.

Nominating Spyro x 5


DAY OVER, CALCS WILL BE IN THE MORNING, People with EXTRA NOMS FROM THE PAST FEW DAYS USE THEM TOMORROW.

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Decidueye
57.87% Chance
65.20% Want

RIP Chibi Robo, lasting in the top ten of want for ~3 days. Decidueye managed to snag spots in both top fives. Not bad for the new bird on the block.

Today since I am an incompetent boy, we are rating Shulk. Please rate him in chance and want. Also predict Skull Kid for real now.

 

[VexTheHex]

Missed Decidueye's day. Oh well. I feel he isn't nearly as certain as many think he is as I see him being picked for Pokken as a possible sign he will be passed on for Smash. Mimikyu is also the bigger fish. Decidueye will be alright though if he gets in.

Shulk
Chance
95%
He's the Marth of the series. Had his own move set that may need some fixing, but it's still his own. Rex & Pyra may not even get in to step on his toes anyways. I don't really see him leaving, but 5% for the surprise cut that can always show up.
Want
100%
I see no point in cutting unique characters from a barely represented series that's successful. I may not play him often, but he deserves his spot.

Nominate Greninja x5

 

[Icedragonadam]

Shulk

Chance: 99.99%

Want: 100%

He's not going anywhere at all. And I really hope not.

Skull Kid Prediction: 21.35%

Nominate Lucas x5

 

[Aetheri]

Shulk Time!

Chance: 95%
No....Rex isn't going to replace Shulk...

Shulk is the current sole representative for the Xenoblade series, no reason to cut him from Smash considering his unique moveset and how beloved his home game was and is...

-5% because who knows what will happen...

----

Want: 100%
Wynaut?

Never used him much but my buddy plays him every now and then with some pretty hilarious results...

----

Prediction:
Skull Kid-11.25%

----

Dark Samus x5

 

[WingedSupernova]

Shulk:
Chance - 100%
Monado boy ain't goin' nowhere.
Want - 95%
Only cause there's no reason to cut him, he's a main of my friend, and his move set is unique and cool.

Skull Kid
Prediction: 7.83%

 

[Deleted member]

Now it's Shulk Time!

This is the Monado's power!

Chance: 99%

No reason to cut him unless he's somehow low priority. He's a popular and well-received veteran with a unique moveset, and replacing him with someone like Elma or Rex wouldn't make much sense since their movesets would be very different from his. And while the latter two have taken his spotlight as far as his home series is concerned, Shulk has remained an important character to the franchise, which has gotten more popular since his debut in Smash 4.

Of course I'm expecting cuts to happen, but I don't see one of them being Shulk.

Want: 100%

What did you expect from someone who calls himself Xeno, is a Xenoblade fan, mains Shulk in Smash 4, and owns his support thread? I want my Monado Boy to stay.

Prediction: Skull Kid - 13.5%

Nomination: Simon Belmont x5

 

[CaptainAmerica]

I’M REALLY FEELING IT!

Chance: 95%
Want: 25%

Of course he’ll be back. He’s repping a new series, and is basically the face of Xenoblade now.
But I still remember the Gematsu leak... “Shulk is in!” Who tf is that? “From Xenoblade!” tf is that?!

But then again, I said the same for Marth, and I love Ike. Maybe I just need a character from Xeno I like...

Not really a fan of him or his aesthetic personally. I never really played him at all, and I didn’t get a handle on his gimmick. Nothing about him interested me at all.

Prediction for Skull Kid: 20.1%
Nomination: Mewtwo x5

 

[Organization XIII]

Chance: 99%
Shulk isn't going anywhere since he's the face of Xenoblade. The only reason it's not 100 is because anything can happen but barring some weird development problem or the Monolithsoft getting sold again Shulk isn't going anywhere.

Want: 100%
I love Xenoblade, and he was one of the characters I supported ( and the only one I got ) for Smash 4. I never want him gone.

noms: Tethu X5

Prediction: Skull Kid 15%

 

[AvionFinch]

Welp, completely missed round son's final evolution's day. Not gonna lie, kinda salty, he still did pretty good though.

Monado Boy

Chance 99%: He's not going anywhere, except for up the tier lists, hopefully.

Want: 100% I will be pretty crushed if he gets cut, even if we get someone like Elma as a replacement.

Prediction for Skull kid: 16% chance / 43% want

Nomination: Phoenix Wright x 5

 

[NeonBurrito]

Shulk

Chance - 100%

Honestly, why are we even wasting a day on this guy?

• He's the mascot of a franchise Nintendo is clearly trying to turn into one of their next big franchises, with the series getting two big games within just the past three years, and the most recent managing to break 1 million copies sold within less than a month.
• He has an incredibly unique playstyle with Monado Arts, gives him a niche that no other character has. (Except for Shulk!Kirby, of course. But even then, it gives Kirby some extremely unique moves as well.)
• He's easily one of the most iconic Smash 4 newcomers due to a meme alone. (Even if said meme is now rather dated.)
• The only time a first part character has ever been cut is either due to time constraints (i.e. Mewtwo), system limitations (i.e. Ice Climbers), or being a clone without much demand to return. Shulk certainly doesn't fall in the latter two categories, and I really doubt he'd be a low priority character in terms of development due to his unique moveset, popularity, and franchise relevancy.

Want - 100%

Wanting to cut 100% original characters is a stupid idea in most cases, and Shulk most certainly no exception to that. Reduce his endlag in Smash 5, thanks.

Nominations:
Phoenix Wright x5

 

[DaUsername]

Shulk
Chance: 99.99%
Any reason for him being cut is wrong.
Want: 100%
He was one of my most wanted Sm4sh newcomers, so him being cut would suck.

Skull Kid prediction: 10%
Noms: Mike Jones x5

 

[Kikkipoptart12]

Shulk
chance- 96%

I don't really see him being replaced with Elma or Rex.

Want- 100%

I want Shulk over Elma and Rex. I find Elma to be meh and Rex to be bad.

I hate Rex and the last thing I want him to replace Shulk especially if he's going to be some lame PKMN trainer knock-off a move set I don't like. Rex either comes with Shulk or don't come at all.
also, I don't get why Xenoblade can't have two characters, Mother and StarFox has two and they both are dead franchises while Xenoblade is alive and well. Xenoblade can have two characters.

 

[Deleted member]

I missed Decidueye? Ah well, at least I was here for the Gen 7 Newcomer day, and I would personally have Decidueye eating up 95% of that score anyway.

Shulk

Chance: 100%
There's no way a popular and unique veteran like him gets cut. He's like the Marth of Xenoblade; there's no way he gets replaced by Elma or Rex & Pyra. And as a big fan of Xenoblade, trust me when I say both of those characters would function radically differently from Shulk anyway.

Want: 100%
I love the guy, his game, his series, his moveset, and secondary him.

Skull Kid prediction: 16.43%

Nominations: Elma x10 (got the extra 5 from Shovel Knight. That's the first time I've gotten the extra noms, so I'll spend them on another Xeno character in honor of Shulk's day)

 

[TheFritzle]

Shulk Chance:
100%
There is no reason why they would cut him. He has a unique moveset and has no issues being in the game.
Want:
100%

Nominations:
Ashley x5

Skull Kid Prediction: 23.74%

 

[wildvine47]

Shulk

Chance: 99% - Yeah, he's goin nowhere. He'll stay forever if for no other reason to rep the game that kicked off the clearly just-getting-started Xenoblade franchise. And that's not even mentioning his unique stat-altering gimmick. We'll see him before or at E3 even I'd reckon.

Want: 100% - No cuts please. Especially not popular ones that are as important to their franchise as Shulk is.

Prediction

Skull Kid: 17.18% - He's got an outside shot due to a mix of popularity and a smidge of relevancy from HW. Won't get him very far in the end though I'd reckon.

Nominations

Dark Matter Blade x 10

 

[ZealousGamer]

Shulk

Chance 99%: He will likely not be cut. No reason I can think of to cut him.

Want 100%: Never played Xenoblade but he fits well.

Nomination:
Jibanyan 5x

 

[PK_Wonder]

Shulk Chances & Want: 100% & 100%

This feels like a wasted day. Shulk isn't going anywhere.

Edit: But please bring friends like Rex and Pyra, and Elma. I love Xenoblade so much I have a Monado tattoo.

Predict Skull Kid: 13.13%

Noms:
Sheriff / Diskun x5

 

[Lord-Zero]

I missed Decidueye ‘s day. Bummer.

Shulk

Chance: 100%

- He’s unique enough to warrant his stay.

Want: 100%

- His Monado Arts are fun.

Prediction

Skull Kid: 10.5%

Nominations

Katrielle Layton (Professor Layton) x3
Black Shadow x2

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

Shulk

Chance: 98%

I'll assume he and Rex differ enough from each other that Rex wouldn't be able to replace him.

Want: 50%

Don't really care. I'll just be glad if no-one from Xeno2 makes it.

Predictions for Skull kid: 9.21%

Nominations: Hades x5

 

[PK_Wonder]

While the day is young, I want to encourage everyone who hasn't played XC2 to try not to succumb to some misconceptions that have floated around suggesting Rex would just replace Shulk. Rex and Shulk have VERY little in common at all. Even if this happened, chances are he would just be throwing away a unique moveset in Shulk while giving a new one to Rex anyway, so why bother?

There is no canonical reason for Rex and Shulk to share more than a couple of standard A moves + back slash, and their most likely gimmicks (Monado Arts vs Pyra/Affinity share virtually nothing in common).

Stranger clones have been made (see Gdorf & Falcon in considerably more time constrained circumstances), but considering how much Sakurai gushed over XC2 on Twitter, he wouldn't be doing a game he loved so much any justice.

Tl;dr the possibility technically exists, but the precedent for something so farfetched clonewise hasn't happened since Melee.

 

[Fenriraga]

This... seems like a waste of a day, but alright.

Monado Boy

Chance: 100%

He's not going anywhere. Period. I expect a new Xenoblade rep, but they absolutely will not replace Shulk. That'd be like getting rid of Marth for whoever the new FE protag will be.

Want: 100%

Just make him better this time Sakurai pls. I don't want to have to learn 6 different advance techniques exclusive to him just to make him a BIT more viable.

Nominate Geno x5

 

[Yomi's Biggest Fan]

Shulk

Chance: 100%

He's IS Xenoblade, no way he would be cut or low priority.

Want: 100%

He's fun to play as.

Prediction for Skull Kid: 8%

Nominations: Sans x5

 

[ProfPeanut]

Shulk

Chance: 99%
This can't really be up for debate, can it? He has no clones or counterparts with similar playstyles, he's already well-received newcomer despite any previous misgivings, and he represents the monolithic Xeno games that Nintendo's already welcomed into its fold. It's in Nintendo's best interest to keep that exposure going.

Smash simply doesn't let go of characters that it can afford to keep. Since Shulk hasn't yet teetered on the brink of irrelevance, or turned out to be incompatible with the Switch's hardware, or been embroiled in any bad deals with Konami, singling him out as a roster cut would just be a dangerous and unnecessary precedent.

Want: 99%
Raddest victory theme of the whole cast, hands down. While I don't have any special love for Shulk, especially since I never got to play his game in the Wii era, he's already got a good base as one of the big newcomers of SSB4. There's no good reason to cut him out, especially right after he just got in.


Predictions:
Skull Kid: 14%

Nominations:
Arle Nadja (Puyo Puyo) 5x

 

[CatRaccoonBL]

Shulk
Chance: 100%
Even in the context of maybe a massive reboot to smash in which several characters get cut I still wouldn't see Shulk cut. Xenoblade is now a well established series. Shulk and the monado are now an integral part of the series. As someone said Shulk is the Marth of the xenoblade franchise.

Spoiler: Massive Xenoblade 2 Spoilers

He also techically shows up in xenoblade 2. It's more so his voice though, but his existence is important to Xenoblade 2's plot. Also a monado exists in xenoblade 2 as well.

Want: 100%
I love the xenoblade franchise so naturally I want to keep Shulk in. He also is fun even if I do want him tweeked a bit to make him better.

Nominations: Ashley (warioware) x5