Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[Ridrool64]

Help me! Mariina!

Chance: 0%. At this point it's already been said why she's a done deal. That being said I actually do think there's a chance for her to get in as a Mii Costume... 0.01% is still a percent. And hey, maybe she can even make an Assist Trophy or collectable cameo. That being said, there is no way in hell that Marina is going to get a fully-fledged roster spot, especially as DLC. Although, considering that we tend to dismiss the characters who actually get in, maybe Marina is likelier than we expect... nah, she isn't. Those characters have overwhelming strengths like being from the best performing video game ever or being an icon of a genre or even trending on Twitter once. That's stuff Marina will most likely never have.

Want: 75%. It would be great if Mischief Makers could come back or at least be acknowledged again. One title on the N64 is all its got to its name off the top of my head, though Marina was in a fighting game apparently. That's cool. Overall I just think she'd be a neat addition, and the whole underdog angle does indeed appeal to me. Even if I'd be rather miffed about a character like her as DLC, which means I can't give her an 80 now.

TF2 rep x max. Neku will be 0.57% among those who think there is no pass 3 and 14.85% among those who think there is. I'll go for somewhere around 7.74%.

Sorry this took so long, my computer had issues for all of yesterday and most of Sunday.

 

[GoodGrief741]

Calcs

Concept: Characters that don't have games on Nintendo platforms
20.57% Chance - 54.55% Want
The winners of predictions were Perkilator and Sari with a precise 20.00%

Qbby
3.47% Chance - 49.38% Want
The winner of predictions was Inue Houji with 3.10%

Spoiler: Extra noms

3BitSaurus 5
Artix 15
Awakining 5
Blankiturayman 15
Dan Quixote 10
DanganZilla5 15
DaUsername 107
Delzethin 5
GoodGrief741 83
Inue Houji 25
Louie G. 10
Lyncario 25
Mr. MR 75
NintenRob 10
Nemuresu 10
Ninjaed 20
Perkilator 10
Ridrool64 15
Sari 5
SKX31 5
TCT~Phantom 15
Troykv 15
Wunderwaft 5
zferolie 5

 

[chocolatejr9]

Did anybody nominate anything Bravely Default-related? Because we got another deconfirm.

Smash Bros. Ultimate "Bravely Default II" Spirit Board event starts Feb. 26th, 2021 https://t.co/PV6kxfKfBr pic.twitter.com/3Ys0ckiz0R

— GoNintendoTweet (@GoNintendoTweet) February 24, 2021

 

[DaUsername]

Third Party Marina
Chance: 0.01%
She's from a one-off N64 game that hasn't seen a sequel, remake, or even re-release in 20 years. Heck, nobody even knows who actually owns her. I'm not sure why anyone even pretends to think she's possible
Want: N/A

Neku prediction: 1%
Noms: Senator Armstrong x5

 

[NintenRob]

Abstain

Carmen Sandiego x10

 

[SneakyLink]

Tune-in on 3/4 at 6am PT for an in-depth look at the new Super #SmashBrosUltimate DLC fighter, Pyra/Mythra, with Director Masahiro Sakurai. He will also reveal the fighter’s release date! pic.twitter.com/eSjrrgGqAk

— Nintendo of America (@NintendoAmerica) February 24, 2021

Quick heads up, next showcase date scheduled.

Note that no fighters will be announced during it.

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Ending the day now. Gonna stretch the last three days out so that we can do predictions and reactions as the week ends.

Rate Neku and predict Concept: AmongUs Character.

 

[Perkilator]

Abstain on Neku.

Among Us character: 10%

Noms:
Crazy Dave x10

 

[Sari]

Some songs to get into the Neku mood:

Spoiler: The World Ends With You Music

 

[Pillow]

Neku Sakuraba
Chance - 10%
First, I'll preface this by saying I don't believe the one character per company thing is an actual rule, so I did consider it when coming up with my chance rating.

Originally my chance rating was much higher than this, but seeing what happened to Bravely Default yesterday made me rethink Neku's chances. In fact, I'm actually sort of expecting Neku to be "killed" during the next Spirit Event. The reality is, the biggest thing in Neku's favor is that Square seems to have recently taken an interest in TWEWY with upcoming anime and sequel games on the horizon. But that's really the only thing going for him, I think. His series was stagnant for nearly a decade before this. TWEWY was a DS exclusive that can't even compete with other DS staples like Phoenix Wright, Professor Layton, or even Cooking Mama in terms of popularity. There has never been a history of Nintendo trying to promote its exclusive games from non Nintendo franchises in Smash. From Square, characters like Lara Croft and 2B are just generally more popular (In my mind 2B's situation is very similar to Joker's was before he came to Smash). Even another Final Fantasy character seems more likely than Neku at this point.

If the TWEWY sequel is successful, and the Square continues with the franchise instead of letting it sleep for years, then I could potentially see Neku as a strong contender down the line, and that's only if Neku continues to be a recurring character. If TWEWY actually becomes a staple franchise but becomes a series with a rotating cast and changing protagonist, then I'd say Neku would lose out to "future protagonists" whose game's release better aligns with a Smash release (again, similarly to Joker).

Want - 100%
I've always loved TWEWY. It's one of my favorite games on one of my favorite consoles ever. I really liked the general aesthetic and tone of the game, and Neku has tons of moveset potential between the pins and potentially partners. And the music is sooo good! That said, I always found Neku himself to be a little obnoxious at times with his brooding and moody personality (which does improve over the course of his game, admittedly) so I'd be equally happy with one of the new TWEWY protagonists from the upcoming game. I really like both Rindo and Fret's visual designs and might actually prefer them to Neku.




Prediction - Among Us
Playable - 1%
Mii Costume - 20%



Nominations-
FromSoft x 5

 

[BowserKing]

Neku

Chance: 5%. Square Enix has 3 reps, and 3 franchises that are spirit events, the third of which being released in two days. I doubt that Neku would get in the Fighter’s Pass, but if multiple characters showed us is that you should expect the unexpected.

Want: 50%. On the other hand, he would be fun to play as, and I can see him and Cloud team up against multiple opponents. Overall, he would make a decent Smash Bros rep.

Prediction: the Imposter Among Us (5%)

Noms: 5 for Boss: Rayquaza

 

[Blankiturayman]

Neku Sakuraba
Chance: 2%
With Sephiroth already taking a SE slot in this pass, I find it mostly unlikely there'd be another character on those grounds alone. It's not impossible of course especially depending on the character, because depending on how Nintendo does the selection they might just want the character without accounting for having repeat companies or anything of the like. Even with that in mind, I think he'd have better chances for a new pass, but that is yet to be seen and another thing entirely.

Anyways, going into Neku himself, he comes from a beloved game that was once a DS exclusive, and while for some time not much was done with it, recently a LOT is, including not only animated adaptations, but also even a sequel and remake not too long ago. SE is very much keeping the series in mind for now, and of course, it's still mainly remained with Nintendo even if it has been ported to other platforms like phones sometimes. Even without the recent use, TWEWY being liked helps a bunch. He would be a good contender on his own, but again, with dis pear getting in those chances dwindle a lot sadly.

Want: Abstain
Haven't beat TWEWY so I'll abstain (this reminded me I should). From the little I know of him, I'd be alright with him, I find his design fine and the pins abilities are pretty neat. I like of the music as well, so it's a win-win either way.

Nominations: Worms x5
Among Us prediction: I assume this means a full character, if so, 0.33%

 

[DrifloonEmpire]

Neku

Chance: 0.5% - He's done like dinner! Granted, the recent Bravely Default II spirit event shows Square's continued interest in DLC, but this could also result in TWEWY simply being spirited as well. There's also Square's current interest in the series, though this also could've come too late for the current pass. Currently not confident in a third pass, which would honestly be Neku's biggest chance, with development seemingly slowing down on Sakurai's end. Though it all comes down to whether or not it is announced with FP10. Though, the real hit is, of course, Sephiroth, and we have yet to see a third party double-dip in a pass. He did manage to avoid a Mii Costume massacre with Sephiroth so he isn't deconfirmed per say, but after this any confidence I had in him is basically gone.

Want: 10% - I do think the aesthetic of his franchise is cool, and it does differenciate itself well from Square Enix's other offerings (and I think TWEWY's aesthetic is more interesting than them). Though we only have two slots left to go and it being unlikely that we get a third pass, there are a lot of other characters I'd chose before him, including fellow Square Enix character Gex. Plus there are several companies like Capcom and ESPECIALLY Namco that don't have any DLC, and in the latter's case still lacks a second character. Thus I'd rather see one of them get a shot before a Square Enix triple dip. I wouldn't complain of Neku got in but I don't see myself being too interested in him either.


Nominations:
Concept: Miles Edgeworth as Phoenix Wright's alt/echo x5
[Rerate] Louie x5

Predictions:
Among Us rep - a very sus 2.27% - Among Us is definitely here to stay, but it by far missed the negotiations period for FP2, so unless we get a third pass (where Nintendo will have had time to see the game's financial value) I don't expect much confidence in him.

 

[GoodGrief741]

The World Ends With Sephiroth

Chance: 1%
Sephiroth already gave us our Square Enix character for this Pass. Unless they double dip, that's it for Neku.

Want: 100%
TWEWY is awesome and Neku is awesome. He feels like he was created to provide a unique Smash moveset. The pins grant him what are basically spells with weird areas of effects and control, and you could also include a partner gimmick where you pass the puck for buffs. His design is super stylish, distinct, and would fit right in. Despite having Joker in the game, we don't have any stages located in Tokyo. TWEWY's stylized depiction of Shibuya would be perfect for that. And the music! The music alone should convince anyone to want him in Smash.

Neku isn't necessarily my most wanted Square Enix character. It's hard to be, considering the wealth of good options. But he's a character I relate to a lot, from a game that really got to me, so it would be a dream come true to see him in Smash. But ****, there's a sequel confirmed! I'm more than content with that.

Amogus prediction: 2.31%
Noms: Agent 47 x10

 

[Sari]

Neku

Chance: 4%
Sephiroth happened. I know it's not a set rule that third parties can't double dip in the same pass, but I just don't see it happening. It also seems like Square Enix has been giving a lot of their series with upcoming/recent Switch games the spirit treatment. First it was Trials of Mana, then Octopath Traveler, and just yesterday we got a Bravely Default II spirit board. This makes me think something similar will happen to Neku to tie-in for NEO: TWEWY which is releasing later this year.

I'll give a small bit of points just in case they actually do add Neku as a tie-in for the new TWEWY game and because of his game being a DS classic. I'll also say that I think Neku is the frontrunner for another Square Enix character, at least in this pass if we actually get an additional one.

Want: 95%
I love TWEWY and Neku would be a great fighter. The game has a ton of amazing music tracks and Neku has a ton of potential thanks to the tons of pins in the game. TWEWY is also a very vibrant and colorful game which is always a plus for a Smash character to me. For a while, Neku was one of my most wanted Square characters along with Lara Croft and 2B. After looking back on his series and seeing how Square Enix is giving it a ton of love recently, I think Neku is my single most wanted Square character and probably one of my most wanted in general.


Among Us character chance prediction: 3.84% (way higher than it should be)

Nominations:
Curly as Quote's alt/echo x15 (using my extra noms)

 

[fogbadge]

three time reaper's game champion

chances: 5% i believe its possible we could get two characters from the same company in this pass but my instinct is that it wont happen. last time we did this i pointed out that i felt like SE was pushing twewy and i think that is still true. now that neo twewy is on its way i imagine it will continue. but for whatever reason the cloud/sephiroth dynamic was prioritized. so as it stands i think our best bet is a ntwewy spirit event. maybe next time.

want: 100% i loved the first game and would love neku to be in smash. with the vast array of things he can do he could easily have one of the most creative movesets weve ever seen. any of the locations from the game would make great stages and thered be plenty of great music as well. the whole pack would have been amazing and i would have loved all of it. out of all the SE characters hes defiantly near the top.

noms grunty x 10

funnily enough my brother was talking about an among us character as an AT early today

you know how people some times people nominate concepts is there like any restrictions on that? like could we say [concept] ice powered character?

 

[Jomosensual]

Neku

Chance 10 - In the past I inflated some scores due to thinking we're getting a 3rd pass but I'm not going to do that anymore, hence the lower score despite my comments. Think if we get a 3rd pass he's very much alive. Sadly for him Sephiroth most likely did his chances in in present times. Square will have a lot of reasons to promote him soon but for now it feels safe to say he got passed over. Given that TWEWY 2 is on it's way though I think I'd call him a favorite for pass 3 to be honest. Just all depends if we get there or not.

Want 50 - Don't care either way here. I don't know a ton about TWEWY but it doesn't seem like it would be a bad addition to Smash. With that said though there's a lot more Square characters I want to get first. Lara Croft and Sora are the main 2 that stand out. Wouldn't mind it though, would be hard to call Neku a dumb pick or anything close to that.

Predictions:
Among Us Character -1.53%

Noms:
John Marston x10

 

[Lyncario]

Neku Sakuraba

Chances: 1%

Yeah, his chances kinda got muredred a lot by Sephiroth in my opinion. Before Sephiroth, I saw him at like 15% chances, because of how TWEWY is one of Square Enix's jrpg that are not only relevant but also linked to Nintendo, with the original version being on the DS and the remastered on Switch, and for the relevance there's the remaster on Switch, and The World Ends With You Neo that's coming, so his series is relevant, furthermore he's also kinda popular, partly because of his aparition in KH, so that would be pretty good. Problem is that he's a Square Enix character, and it's not like Sora where he's Square Enix in spirit but actualy owned by someone else, nope, so that already lowers his chances a lot, but considering that Nintendo went for the big characters when they went to Square Enix the 3 last time, I feel like Lara Croft and 2B have a far better chance, not that I think that Nintendo wants a second Square Enix character for this pass, and I also don't think that a fighter pass 3 is likely at all, though I do think they would take priority above him if an FP3 did happen.

Want: 90%

Which I find to be a shame, because I think that Neku would be awesome to have in Smash. But hey, this can be said of many Square Enix characters, who have like, the second biggest ammount of characters that would be cool in Smash behind Capcom. But yeah, Neku would be extremly cool to have. His moveset could be very fun, with him being a pure mage, but also because he could have his partners help him for some of his moves, like Shiki or Joshua. Not only that, but the music would be incredible to have in Smash, though it can also be applied to many characters, but yeah, The World Ends With You has an incredible soundtrack. I also reccomand it a lot, since it's a very good game.

Nominations

Madeline mii x10

Predictions

Among Us character: 0.9%, because I have a bit of hope in this thread.

 

[2006ToyotaTacoma]

Neku Sakuraba

Chances: 1%

Sephiroth has essentially killed his chances. I don't believe that the "One rep per company per pass" rule deconfirms outright, but based off past precedent is a definite strike against his chances. And even if we do get another Square rep, Neku's got tough competition with bigger Square characters like Lara Croft and 2B, so even then he's in a tight spot. His series's relevance may land him a Spirit Event if he's lucky though.

Want: Abstain

I don't know much about TWEWY as a series, but Neku's design looks pretty unique so guess I wouldn't be against him. I just don't believe I know enough about him and his series to make a case as to why I want him.

Noms: Senator Armstrong x5

Predictions
Among Us character: 0%. Yeah its extremely popular now, but that popularity started far after negotiations for FP2 ended, so unless an FP3 happens they're not happening, and I'm certain about that.

 

[DanganZilla5]

The World Ends With "Insert funny comment here"

Chance: 5%

As a reminder, I have been doing these ratings with the assumption that we won't get a third pass. I am confident in more DLC, but that is not the point of today's rating.

Now normally I would rate Neku high. In fact I'd argue he is Square's next character. Square has suddenly been pushing TWEWY and the series is super close with Nintendo. Neku has been slowly getting more attention from the community and he is the type of character who is less well known than other Square picks, but still makes a lot of sense, which is the theme that a lot of the DLC characters have been following.

The problem is the elephant in the room: Sephiroth. I am a believer in the idea that third party companies will not double dip. The fact that they seperated the Square and Microsoft characters says a lot in my eyes. Of course this is just a fan rule so I have to leave the door open a bit, especially since Neku is arguably Square's frontrunner. But considering that we only have 2 characters left, I don't think there is a lot of room left for this to happen. Also, the fact that we keep getting Square spirit events makes it seem like that TWEWY might get a spirit event eventually.

Want: Abstain

Still haven't given TWEWY a try. Right now I have been playing a lot of Minecraft, Dynasty Warriors Gundam, and Xenoblade 2. So I have a lot occupying my free time right now.

Prediction: Among Us character (I wish I nominated Among Us content instead) - 1.50%

Noms: Excitebiker x10

 

[NintenRob]

Abstain

Nominate Carmen Sandiego x5

Prediction Among Us 1.5% (i should probably participate since I'm its thread owner)

 

[GoodGrief741]

Spoiler: Nominations post-Marina Liteyears pre-Neku

Henry Stickmin x370
Mii Costume: Madeline x350
Concept: Team Fortress 2 rep x340
Concept: A 4X strategy rep x320
John Marston x315
[Rerate] Velvet Crowe x300
Crazy Dave x290

300 - 251

Worms x285
Excitebiker x285
Mike Haggar x255
Agent 47 x255

250 - 201

Concept: A 3rd party company gets more than one fighter in the same pass x240
[Rerate] Concept: League of Legends rep x232
Concept: Curly as Quote's alt/Echo x215
Concept: Far Cry rep x214
Zagreus x210
Billy & Jimmy Lee x210
Tetra x205
Peppino (Pizza Tower) x202

200 - 151

Concept: Miles Edgeworth as Phoenix Wright's Alt/Echo x185
[Rerate] Carmen Sandiego x170

150 - 101

Kaede Akamatsu x150
Rallen (Spectrobes) x150
Riptor x140
Stage: Bowser's Castle x137
Mii Costume: Monika x135
Trevor Philips x135
Boss: Rayquaza x135
Estelle Bright x130
Senator Armstrong x125
Boss: Ender Dragon x118
D.Va x115
Concept: A BioShock protagonist x111
Mii Costume: 2B x110
Concept: Skullgirls rep x109
Mii Costume: Alex Kidd x108
Fulgore x104

100 - 51

Stage: Tetris x100
Concept: Disgaea rep x100
Giygas x90
Echo (Bowser) x90
Concept: From Software rep x90
Junpei (Zero Escape) x81
Concept: Darksiders rep x80
Sackboy x80
Ryza (Atelier) x75
Concept: More ATs as one new item x75
Dwight Fairfield (Dead by Daylight) x75
Concept: Rocket League rep x75
[Rerate] Concept: New Zelda character x70
Grunty (Banjo-Kazooie) x70
Echo (Olimar) x66
Concept: SNES-era Final Fantasy rep x65
Ghirahim x60
Gooigi x55
Vi (Bug Fables) x55
Echo: Zeraora (Lucario) x55
[Rerate] Jin Kazama x55
Magolor x55
Jin Sakai x55

50 - 25

[Rerate] Agumon x40
Mii Costume: Zagreus x40
[Rerate] Zhao Yun x35
Filia (Skullgirls) x31
Concept: Large and Normal Final Destination made into separate stages x25
[Rerate] Louie x25

Under 25

Regigigas x20
[Rerate] Metal Sonic x20
Concept: Danganronpa protagonist x20
Demi-Fiend x20
Yarn Yoshi x15
[Rerate] Shovel Knight x15
Tetris x10
Slash Kamei (Snowboard Kids) x10
[Rerate] Yuri Lowell x10
Jesse (Control) x10
Infernape x10
Beatrice (Umineko) x10
Concept: Rocket League content x5
[Rerate] Thrall x5
[Rerate] Lara Croft x5
Stage: Tetris 99 x5
Concept: Raizing shmup rep x5
Donbe and Hikari x5
Soma Cruz x5
Concept: KOS-MOS with T-elos alt x5
[Rerate] Master Hand x5
[Rerate] Arthur x5
Pyramid Head x5
[Rerate] Elma x5
[Rerate] Brian x5
Firebrand x1

Agent 47 sneaks past 250 noms.

Billy & Jimmy Lee and Peppino ascend past 200 noms.

Concept: Skullgirls rep brawls its way to 100 noms.

A new challenger approaches! It's Beatrice, with 10 noms.

you know how people some times people nominate concepts is there like any restrictions on that? like could we say [concept] ice powered character?

There isn't any limit, we've allowed concepts like "A fighter who uses all kicks" to be nominated.

 

[chocolatejr9]

Abstain. I know nothing about TWEWY.

Nominations: Concept: Disgaea rep x5

 

[Flyboy]

Neku
Chance: 5%
So...my thoughts on Neku's chances constantly fluctuate and right now I gotta admit they're at a low. I do think one Non-Nintendo company can get two characters in a single pass, but that doesn't mean they will. So, unfortunately, with Sephiroth, that torpedoes Neku's chances to me. However, it is worth noting that we DO have an anime and a sequel coming, so TWEWY is back in the spotlight, and that's awesome! Unfortunately I don't think it means we're getting a Smash spot unless there's a pass 3, and even in a pass 3 I'd argue a Nier character is far more likely.

Want: 99%
Hell yes! Neku has been a big want since Brawl. Back in my high school Ace Attorney fandom days, TWEWY was like part of the holy trinity of games everyone in that fandom played along with Hotel Dusk. It's a fantastic title with awesome characters, a killer story, and style out the wazoo. It was the first time a game felt truly "fashionable" to me, with its contemporary J-Rock and J-Pop OST (that you could actually buy on iTunes!! Like a real CD!) and slick graffiti art style, along with its great twists and messages that felt super relatable as a teen and still hold up today. I can't complain too much right now since we're getting the anime and the sequel game, but man, Neku in Smash would be repping one of the best games on the DS with a flashy, fun, frantic moveset featuring all kidns of party member shenanigans. I'd love to see it.

Nominations: Beatrice (Umineko) x10 (I think that's the new max, yes? So 10.) (No, I'm not expecting much activity when I inevitably push her to the top, but since when has that stopped me?)

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Neku

25% Chance

My score is a good bit higher because I still am holding out for a FP3, and as of now am including it in my scores. If we do not hear anything after FP10, then I would go a good bit lower. For this pass, Neku is a longshot. Square already got a rep, and we have not seen a third party double dip in one pass yet. That being said, in terms of post pass content, Neku makes a ton of sense. TWEWY is in the limelight right now. Its in Kingdom Hearts and basically confirmed for KH4. It got a switch port. It has an anime out now. And to top all that off, we are finally getting a TWEWY sequel coming out. Honestly, if I had to bet on a character from Square, it would be Neku. And that is the problem. If we do get a third pass or post pass, his chances go up a lot. If we do not, his chances drop a lot.

100% Want

Neku is one of the three characters that I want want that I can say are realistic, the others being Crash and Officer Howard. There are other characters that I would love to see, like Spyro or Heavy, but they ain't realistic. TWEWY is one of my favorite games of all time. It is the best DS game IMO, and that is the definitive way to play it. Switch version is ok, but it does not hold a candle to the DS version. Once you get a hang of it it is a blast. Awesome combat, awesome artstyle, great story and characters. Get into TWEWY now, the fandom is going to explode with the anime. But yeah, I love Neku. He would be awesome to play as. The soundtrack alone would be worth it. It is just something I really hope gets in. If we get FP3 and Crash is already in, I will be shilling Officer Howard and Neku so hard.

Haggar x 10

 

[Louie G.]

NEKU

CHANCE - 3%
As others have stated, if additional DLC is announced his chances go up a considerable amount. A cult classic in its own right, I think TWEWY would be a well-received addition to the world of Smash and with a sequel on the way (and an anime!) it's likely going to see a whole new wave of fans. Seems like Square Enix is really looking to make this revival a success.

Unfortunately for Neku though, Sephiroth exists and I have a difficult time seeing one of our remaining two characters coming from Square Enix. Then again, TWEWY is at least extremely distinct in a vacuum and I feel it wouldn't be difficult to have Neku and Sephiroth coexist (compared to say, Sephiroth and Sora who IMO overlap way too much in general appeal and audience). Still, until further notice I consider him to be a longshot.

WANT - ABSTAIN
I haven't played TWEWY, and I know next to nothing about what Neku would even do. All I have to pull from is his design and the neat-looking urban setting that TWEWY takes place in, and those two things do leave a good impression. I can't really rate him confidently but I already know I'd appreciate him more than a number of other prospecting Square Enix (and SE tangential) characters.

ඞ - 1.55%

NOMINATION - BILLY + JIMMY LEE x10

 

[Mr. MR]

Abstain
Still haven't played TWEWY and I don't know anything about it really. Which is a shame. I have been hearing good things about it for years.

Noms: Zhao Yun x5
Predict Among Us: 0.64%

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

Neku
Chance: 1%
While TWEWY does have plenty of things going for it they matter little at this point. We've already got our Square character in this pass and I don't see them double dipping. If we do get another pass after all then Neku's chances will shoot up but as of right now he's toast.

Want: Abstaining

Among us character: 1.18%
Skullgirls rep x5

 

[Lionfranky]

Neku

Chance: 11%

I don't believe "3rd party company can't double dip in the same pass" rule. It really just comes down to relationship and negotiation. I don't think Nintendo or Sakurai really care about characters representing their companies that much. The real question is how much Square Enix and Nintendo cares about this fella. There seems to be bright future for his franchise. But that can be said for many other franchises that have not made into Smash yet. There wasn't anything to add to hype train when Terry was added. While 2B seems to be out, there are still characters like Lara Croft from SE as big competition. I'm not sure which franchise SE and Nintendo will prioritize next.

Want: abstain

I've never played his game. From what I've seen, it looks pretty good. I will get my hand on it when I get time. But that will be further down the line. I have backlog piled up.

Nom: 3rd party company gets more than one fighter in the same pass x 10

 

[Yiptap]

Abstaining. Never played TWEWY.
Among Us Chance Rating: 0.86%
Noms: Meat Boy xMax (How much I have)

 

[Cutie Gwen]

Abstains, 5 noms.


Chance: 1% Man Sephiroth really threw a wrench into this. TWEWY's the definition of cult classic but as of recently, Square actually decided to expand on it by pushing it in Kingdom Hearts and as of very recently, we're also getting an anime and a sequel, while Neku hasn't appeared in the sequel yet, it's very obvious he'll be shown off later as the Switch port's added postgame heavily implied we were getting a sequel. The big issue now is Sephiroth. While it's not impossible to get another SE character, it's very unlikely.

Want: 100% TWEWY is... A special game. It's perhaps my favourite example of a video game using the fact it's a video game to enhance the story. There's a lot of little detaila and features that take full advantage of the DS and some of the Switch's features to do exactly that. The setting is very interesting aa it's nothing like any other video game, feeling like a perfect modern day RPG with all sorts of small stuff, the focus on fashion, the typical design of characters, etc. The writing is very deep despite the story being simplistic, for example, instead of an armour class, characters need a certain level of bravery stat to wear the clothes which is a very neat way of handling it, especially as women's clothing are typically high bravery, but the clothes also have special effects for certain characters which imply that the character in question likes that particular attire, which adds a lot to the depth of the characters as I can't think of many other characters in fiction who have established tastes for something as minor for clothes they wear in their free time, hell, this system heavily implies Neku enjoys crossdressing, a completely minor detail that serves no purpose for anything but adding a smidge of extra personality. I could go on and on about how TWEWY is a masterpiece but this has gone on long enough.

Velvet Crowe x5
Zagreus x5

 

[Hydreigonfan01]

So are we done now with rating Neku?

 

[Inue Houji]

So are we done now with rating Neku?

Nope

Motoi Sakuraba
Chance: 10%
While I do not think he's likely, he does have a shot thanks to the announcement of the sequel. Sephiroth is a blow to his chances, for sure, but no representative of Nintendo/Sora Ltd/Bamco has stated anything about multiple reps from a single company.
The aforementioned sequel, and the anime(?) does show that Square Enix is interested in the IP, and thus might want to promote it in Smash. If there are any developers that have bargaining power for multiple reps, SE is definitely one of them.

Want: 50%
Never played the game, and haven't seen a lot of gameplay. But it looks interesting, and has a unique vibe to it.
The most interesting part however is the music. While I like some of them, the quality varies a lot. But it does have some interesting musical ideas that I would love to see other composers play with.
All in all, a perfectly good choice.

Predictions
Among Us: 0.1%

Nominations
Rallen x10

 

[TCT~Phantom]

So are we done now with rating Neku?

Never ask when a day is going to end. Someone always ends up posting within 1 hour of when someone does.

 

[Ridrool64]

Oh speaking of somebody posting, I have to talk Neku don't I?

Well I'll give him a 5% in Chance. Everything I've said before still stands about why I'm not very confident in Neku, which I would hunt down if I cared more (I do remember rating him before). But the big change here is Sephiroth, who, well, got in. Even if you believe only one character per company per set of newcomers is a load of bunk when it's probably the closest thing to an unspoken rule, I still don't really think Neku is happening because I think his push came too late, and if they wanted to promote it I think a spirit event will most likely do. Definitely feels like he's likely for the next round, be it in 2024, 2028 or 2030, but I don't think he's happening soon at all. Stranger things have happened, though, so I won't count him out entirely.

I'll just abstain on want entirely.

Among Us's want is going to be very low due to its recency (both overall and in terms of when it hit it big) and oversaturation, but its chance should genuinely be 0.00%. Unfortunately I can see somebody giving it a 1% for inexplicable reasons, so... 0.11%.

TF2 rep x max.

 

[Sari]

Day over.

Rate Concept: Among Us character.

Predict Beat from Jet Set Radio.

Megadoomer

-----

Since Among Us doesn't really have any actual music, I'm going to have to be creative with today's music post:

Spoiler: Among Us Music

Be thankful I went for these songs instead of some... other options out there...

 

[Cutie Gwen]

View attachment 305153

Chance: 0% Yeah nah this isn't happening, they finished negotiations for the pass ages ago and Among Us only really became wellknown last year. Sure, it's been around since 2018 and since it's popularity skyrocketed it's become incredibly mainstream, but it's just flatout too late. It also remains to be seen whether or not the game's going to keep it's popularity or if it'll fade away, hell, Sakurai's spoken about the game on his Famitsu column and he wonders how long it'll remain popular. All in all, it's just flatout not happening, no way around it.

Want: 20% I actually adore the game, it's basically my favourite movie but interactive, I regularly play the game with my friends and I've made multiple objection.lol videos on the games we've played. Almost every match I've played is fun due to trying to keep tabs on your friends and trying to find out whodunnit. This is where the positives end though, as there's no way to make this really work. Yeah yeah, there are multiple mods of the Crewmate/Imposter for Brawl and Ultimate which is impressive, but the entire core of the game is around the social aspect. It doesn't help that a moveset needs to be mishmashed together randomly without any real cohesion either, the worst example being switching movesets for the Imposter and Crewmate on the fly and that people have to tell who they're fighting by the moves used. Some fighters have visual clarity issues, sure, one character has the exact same move for half her moveset, sure, but this idea is completely ridiculous, it goes against the entirety of the genre. A stance change character is great but as countless examples from the past 20+ years show something in common. There's some visual indicator to let you know you changed the stance. Hell, it wouldn't exactly be accurate to let the two switch at all.




Oh and it'd also make unfunny assholes who like ruining people's fun spam those obnoxious ass memes even more.


Velvet Crowe x5
Zagreus x5

 

[Perkilator]

Amogus. Please laugh.
Chance: 1%
Among Us gained popularity in 2020, two years after its initial release date and in the middle of Vol. 2’s development. Most I could see is a Spirit Event and that’s it.

Want: 0%
No offense to the game or it’s devs, but the constant barrage of the same Among Us memes over and over and over and over again has ruined the game for me. Even if, like I mentioned earlier, Among Us only got as much as a Spirit Event, the meme gouging would only worsen, and I don’t wanna let that affect my enjoyment of Smash, let alone Spirit Events.

Beat: 5%

Noms:
Crazy Dave x5

 

[Lyncario]

That one grass poison type from gen 5 who's actualy a very annoying staller

chance: 0%

Among Us's boom was in the latter half of 2020. The second fighter pass was already finished being chosen by November 2019. The math makes this write itself. Why would Nintendo go "hey, this random small game on steam and mobiles should be in Smash!" in any timeline? This is not hapening, and that's it. A Mii costume could happen considering we know that miis are chosen differently than fighters, way closer than when they are released since you kinda only need to do the model and fit it on a mii after the licencing, but we're rating chances for a character, not for a mii costume, so thart's a straight 0 from me.

Want: 10%

Among Us is a fun game but this would be the most annoying possible character added to Smash, not because of the moveset, but because every sites would be absolute crap, with so much of those crappy "when the impostor is sus" memes that I would more than probably find the will to finally disconnect and work on writing something and also schoolworks. The moveset could be neat, I guess, the workshop Among Us character in RoA is alright, even if it feels extremly forced.

Predictions

Beat: 4.5%

 

[BowserKing]

The Imposter Among Us

Chance: 5% If they were to be in the game, they would be spirits or Mii Costumes at the kindest. Given it’s recent surge of popularity, it might be those. But for the second Fighter’s pass on the other hand, is a long shot and you shouldn’t expect the unexpectedly, but I think they may not in this pass.

Want: 50% On the other hand, they would be fun to play as, and I can see Kirby try to be the imposter and copy the mates abilities. Overall, while they may not be able to break twitter like Steve did, the Among Us rep would still be a decent Smash Bros rep.

Prediction: Beat: 5%

Noms: 5 for Garchomp