Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[GoodGrief741]

Lube

Chance: 2.5%
Dynasty Warriors is Koei Tecmo's biggest franchise sales-wise, and it's responsible for the creation of the musou genre. So it's got its place in history, for sure. But I really don't see a character from it getting in. There's just no getting past Hayabusa. Ninja Gaiden is a franchise composed of classic after classic, unlike Dynasty Warriors which has kind of a stigma of being mindless and lowbrow. Hayabusa is iconic, and the face of Tecmo Koei. Add to that the Nintendo history, and yeah, I don't think larger sales can combat that. Like Cutie Gwen said, it's Mega Man all over again. Even if Hayabusa wasn't in contention, I wouldn't feel very confident. There are still other games like Dead or Alive and Fatal Frame that I could see getting in over DW. And even within that series Lu Bu competes with actual protagonist Zhao Yun, and who knows if being popular will give him an edge.

Want: 0%
I like Dynasty Warriors but I can't say it's for the characters. I'd be okay with having one, but within Tecmo I have many others I'd rather see.

Noms: Jason & SOPHIA x10
Deltarune content prediction: 20.34%

 

[Inue Houji]

Lu Bu

Chance: 15%
The Warriors/Musou series originates in 1997 when Koei's ω-Force division released Sangokumusou for the PlayStation, a Tekken-like fighting game. Outside of Japan it was known as Dynasty Warriors.
Three years later, in 2000; Shin Sangokumusou, a spinoff from the original Sangokumusou and the base for the current series, was released as a launch title for the PlayStation 2. In the west however, they opted for name recognition and called it Dynasty Warriors 2.
That is why to this date, there's still a discrepancy between the japanese and english title numbers. Since then, the series has seen countless titles, spinoffs and expansions released over the years. So many in fact, it is hard to find an actual number.

Lu Bu is one of the two main mascots for the Dynasty Warriors series, with the other being Zhao Yun. Anyone who's ever played a Dynasty Warriors game knows who Lu Bu is, with him typically appearing in the second stage of the story mode, Hu Lao Gate. "Don't pursue Lu Bu" is somewhat of a meme among fans, as he's notorious for his difficulty. He often has buffs that give him bonus damage, regeneration and immunity to hitstun.
With most encounters the intended way of dealing with him is to not deal with him.
In his playable form, he's also one of the strongest characters, with health, defense and attack higher than most characters, and a moveset with huge range and damage.

In recent years, the series has enjoyed newfound popularity with its collaborations with other companies, combining the Warriors-style gameplay with other popular IP's. Among these companies are Nintendo, with Fire Emblem Heroes and Hyrule Warriors. It's safe to say they have a lot of faith in Koei-Tecmo, even more so considering they're making Age of Calamity canon to BotW.
Koei-Tecmo also helped with Fire Emblem 3H, so a rep is basically confirmed already

The main obstacle to a Warriors rep is of course Ryu Hayabusa, Tecmo's mascot. Ninja Gaiden has its origins from the NES, which does make him a lot more likely.


Want: 100%
My childhood was spent playing Dynasty Warriors 3 on the original XBox. I'm even currently in the process of 100%-ing Dynasty Warriors 8 XLCE.
Even if I'm not sure how he would fit in smash, it would be a guilty pleasure.
Though I would prefer another character, like Zhang He or Meng Huo, they're never gonna happen anyway.


Predict Deltarune: 3%

Nominations
Adol Christin x10

 

[Lyncario]

Lu Bu

Chances: 1%

Yeah, I just don't see it hapening, and I think that it's easy to understand why, he's a Koei Tecmo character who isn't Ryu Hayabusa. Because he's honestly the only character from Koei Tecmo who has a chance in my opinion. Also, reading some of the post about him, he's aparently not the protagonist of any of the Musou games, which is like, not good for his chances, I think. I just don't think that anyone from KT who isn't Hayabusa has a chance, no matter if it's Reisalin Stout (also known as Ryza), Kasumi, or Lu Bu, I just don't see anyone from KT getting over him due to his legacy, how imoportant to KT he is, and how he's the most demanded character from KT.

Want: Abstain

I don't play Warrior games other than Hyrule Warriors, I largely prefer the style of DMC, Bayonneta, or KH. I have nothing against him, I just have no opinion on him. So yeah, I abstain giving a want rating for him because I just don't care and would go "oh, I did not expect him to get in. Whatever" if he does get in, so I abstain rather than giving a low/neutral rating, I don't even know his design...

One quick google image search later

I must say, he does look pretty cool, and fighting with a spear is pretty cool if anything, I guess. He still does nothing for me tho.

Nominations
Hades: x5

Predictions
Deltarune content: 65%

 

[TCT~Phantom]

This is a tad off topic, but some RTC news.

We will be hosting our first ever RTC tournament for Smash. The prizes are nominations. First place gets 100 bonus noms, Second gets 50, third gets 25. Now you may be asking yourself "But what are the rules?". Here ya go.

Now, you may wonder about the time. Well that is to be determined. By you all. Here is a google forum, vote on which times works best. Here is the google forum.

If you have more questions, either pm me on here or join the discord server to ask away.

 

[Deleted member]

"I am the greatest warrior this world has ever seen!"

Chance: 20%

Here's a summary on something before we get to Lu Bu: Koei-Tecmo has a good relationship with Nintendo, and Dynasty Warriors is their top selling title as the series is best known for the gameplay of Musou and is currently 20 years old (starting with DW2 since in Japan it's called Shin Sangoku Musou). Dynasty Warriors 8: Xtreme Legends is available on the Switch, and the upcoming Dynasty Warriors 9: Empires will be releasing on it early 2021. With multiple Musou games under a few Nintendo IPs as well as those few games being on the Switch, put 2 and 2 together and I can easily imagine Nintendo wanting Dynasty Warriors in Smash, even if Ninja Gaiden may be seen as the more favorable choice for different reasons.

Now onto Lu Bu. He is an interesting character to speculate around because he's usually 1 of the first characters most people would think of when they hear Dynasty Warriors and for good reason. His presence in the games is always felt when you see him appear for the first time in a cutscene to when his theme kicks in to when you take him head on and die instantly even when characters tell you not to pursue Lu Bu. His weapon, the halberd, is 1 of, if not, the strongest weapons in Dynasty Warriors, and unlike most characters in Dynasty Warriors 9, Lu Bu was the only character to have a weapon unique to only him whereas every other character had a cloned moveset pre-DLC. He even has his own story mode in DW8: Xtreme Legends when Story Mode was mainly focused on all 4 Kingdoms of the game. In Hyrule Warriors, Volga has an alternate color palette that directly references Lu Bu. It is a completely fair assessment to make that he is the most iconic character of the series.

With all that said, Lu Bu probably wouldn't be chosen to represent Dynasty Warriors for a few reasons. For 1, Zhao Yun is the face of the series as he's front and center on most Dynasty Warriors covers and on their 20th Anniversary artwork. While you could make the argument about Min Min being chosen over Springman, Zhao Yun falls more in line with Terry in this regard as they're the faces/mascots of their respective franchises. The 2nd reason pretty much has to do with Lu Bu himself. By design, he's made to be an unstoppable force of nature given that the halberd deals the most damage out of any weapon in Dynasty Warriors alongside an all rounded moveset with a lot of reach. It's probably more likely that if he were to be in Smash, he'd be in as either an Assist Trophy and/or a 4 Star Spirit for the Dynasty Warriors Spirit Board. He'd fit incredibly well as an AT since he's kinda like Black Knight as a menacing figure but with a larger range and hits and moves faster, and it makes total sense for him to be a Legendary Spirit since he's displayed as the strongest character in Dynasty Warriors bar none (though he isn't much of a strategist that's for sure).

So pretty much all it comes down to is a 1/5 of a chance for Lu Bu. As the most familiar character when playing Dynasty Warriors, Lu Bu looks like the most favorable for the series, but he's rather 2nd as the face of the series and would most likely fit more in Smash as anything but a fighter due to his status in the game.

Want: 100%

I've said a lot about how I want KT representation and Dynasty Warriors content in Smash before, so I'll cut that bit short and get to just Lu Bu.

Truth be told, I actually do favor seeing Lu Bu playable in Smash over Zhao Yun because he looks cooler, and there's a whole lot of things I hope to see from it. I really want his trailer to have him essentially wreck every fighter in Smash and leave the scene with bodies on the floor. I hope his moveset neglects all forms of balancing in favor of making him the most superior character in all of Ultimate. I really want to hear the Smash Remix of his theme (which is most likely happening if Dynasty Warriors is indeed in Smash). I really hope if he were to have an English VA in Smash it'd be Jamieson Price again since the voice for Lu Bu in DW9 sounds incredibly out of place (which pretty much describes the English Dub of DW9 in general). There's just a whole lot of things I want out of Lu Bu being in Smash which would probably disappoint me for if Smash doesn't do the things I want out of it, but I'll still pop off in pure excitement if somehow he's playable in Smash.
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Predictions:
Deltarune Content - 2%
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Noms:
A Challenger Pack with 2 Fighters x10

 

[Calamitas]

My favourite Generation 7 Pokémon, Tapu Lu Bu

Chance: 5%
This rating could quite easily be summed up in one simple point: Blue Boruto's Dad Ryu Hayabusa exists. As others have already pointed out, if Koei Tecmo is to get a character, then it is most certainly going to be that ninja, and not a Dynasty Warriors character. Thought that isn't to say that that franchise isn't without its merrits. The series has a long history, and two Nintendo-themes Warriors games already exist, with a third one coming out next month. But this alone isn't really enough to catapult a character from the "main" DW series into prominence over that old ninja.

Want: Abstain
My only experience with anything Warriors is Hyrule Warriors and Fire Emblem Warriors. Since I never touched one of these main ones, I'll give no want rating.

Nominating Concept: A Bravely Default character x10.

Predicting Deltarune content to get around 15.51%.

 

[Sid-cada]

Lu Bu

Chance - 0.5% - He hails from a franchise that is the companies' best selling, while also having several crossovers with Nintendo franchises. Sounds like a no-brainer, right? Unfortunately, he comes from the same company that hold Ryu Hayabusa, more or less the companies mascot who was also a notable icon of the NES days. Ryu, in my opinion, is simply way too big an obstacle to overcome.

Want - 40% - Eh, could be cool, but I'd probably need to see him in action. I'd much rather have Ryu though.


Nominations

Arle Nadja X5

 

[Lionfranky]

Lu Bu

Chance: 8%

Dynasty Warrior has been successful franchise. It even managed to influence other franchises to spawn its own similar games. Funny thing is that this series was criticized for milking in my country.... how many entries there are with little changes. That being said, I think Sakurai would consider this as bordering his only rule: originating from video game. Sure, Smash has shown some grey area, but I think this is pushing bit far. And for millionth times, there is Ryu Hayabusa. He's in similar case with Ryu and Megaman. Monster Hunter and Resident Evil are more successful than Street Fighter and Megaman, but here we are. I believe Sakurai would most likely go for legacy.

Want: 0%

Sorry to his fans, but I don't want to open pandora's box. We haven't had spear/polearm users in Smash, so that's plus, but I still believe Ryu would bring more unique and fun moveset. I've grown more fond of Ninja Gaiden than Dynasty Warrior. And I'm very strict on Sakurai's only rule. And Lu Bu was a backstabbing *******, so that's another deduction in my book.

Predict: 13%
Nom: Neptune x 10

 

[Mr. MR]

Do Not Pursue Lu Bu

Chance: 40%

First-off, I think the biggest point in his favor is that Koei Tecmo has yet to get a character. This is one of the last major Japanese gaming companies, who out of all the third party companies probably has the best relationship currently with Nintendo. I think there's a solid chance we get a KT character in this pass. (also, if there is a third party company that I can see getting a double dip this pass it's Koei Tecmo)

So why Lu Bu? Well for starters Dynasty Warriors is Koei Tecmo's flagship franchise. So who are the Dynasty Warriors front runners? A game series with so many awesome characters and no outright protagonist makes it difficult for anyone to stand out but Lu Bu does. His reputation as the mightiest warrior is nothing to scoff at in game. He leaves an impression on you the first time you play a Dynasty Warriors game and Koei does this on purpose. They even gave him his own hypothetical storyline, essentially treating him like a faction of his own. If Zhao Yun is the heroic face of the series, Lu Bu is the 'villainous' face (pure warrior/an almost impossible obstacle to overcome). Lu Bu is as much of the face of Dynasty Warriors as Zhao Yun is if not more. Lu Bu even has his own theme music with a simple but effective opening electric guitar riff that sets the tone of what your getting into. His theme is also often mixed in with the main theme and he ends up on the boxart very often.

Comparing Lu Bu with Ryu Hayabusa in terms of requests is sorta not fair because there are so many characters in Dynasty Warriors that makes it hard to judge the requests of Dynasty Warriors as a whole. Ryu Hayabusa may have an NES legacy but his new games don't appear on Nintendo consoles. The newly announced Dynasty Warriors 9 Empires is however coming to the Switch. And the big point in favor of Dynasty Warriors getting a rep over Ninja Gaiden is that we have THREE NINTENDO MUSOU GAMES with the most recent being a canon entry into the Zelda timeline or whatever is left of the Zelda timeline. IMO a Dynasty Warriors rep makes more sense than Ryu Hayabusa. Also, it does help Lu Bu/Dynasty Warriors' case at least a little that the 20th Anniversary of the series was this year. Ryu Hayabusa does have a good chance but do not underestimate Lu Bu.

Lastly, Lu Bu from Dynasty Warriors is a video game character inspired by a novel written in the fourteenth century based a real person from the third century. This is almost equivalent of the hypothetical case of a video game character being based on a Shakespeare play that was inspired by a real Roman general. And the comparison of Romance of the Three Kingdoms to Shakespeare is a fair comparison because RotTK is one of China's Four Great Classic Novels and was even written way before Shakespeare was born. Also, just to put all this into perspective, another one of the Four Great Classic Novels, Journey to the West, also inspired many characters and media including Dragon Ball. I think there's a big difference between having a video game character based on a modern novel or a modern person and having it based on classic works and ancient people.


Want: 100%

I WANT LU BU! I want Dynasty Warriors music (I love the DW4 soundtrack. Gets me pumped every time). I want a Dynasty Warriors stage. I want Mii Costumes. I want to destroy my enemies as Lu Bu! I got into the series with Dynasty Warriors 4 and it was a blast to play with my friends. This game got me into the Three Kingdoms craze and got me interested in Chinese history.

The mightiest warrior sounds like the perfect addition to the ultimate roster of the ultimate crossover fighting game. For so long I wanted a pole-arm fighter. My hopes were on Ephraim from Sacred Stones and we have gotten Byleth who uses a spear for 4 moves. But to me it's not the same. Now that Lu Bu has a chance, I really hope he gets in.

Lu Bu also has his own meme.

Noms: Impa x10
Predict: 2%

 

[Folezicle Lives!]

Remember: today's the last day you can affect the top seven. It's still anyone's game, so use them wisely!

Spoiler: Nominations post-Monster Hunter pre-Lu Bu

Billy Hatcher x245
Jason Frudnick & SOPHIA x230
Sakura Shinguji x225
Zelda (BotW universe) x220
The Stretchers x210
Concept: Content from currently unreleased game (not Spirit Events) (as of May 17th 2020) x205
Amiya (Arknights) x205

200 - 151

Hades (Kid Icarus) x200
Mii Costume: Jill Stingray x189
Alex Mason x185
Concept: Pokémon Mystery Dungeon content x171
Neptune (Hyperdimension Neptunia) x175
Concept: A Bravely Default character x170
Arthur (Ghosts 'n Goblins) x170

150 - 101

[Rerate] Frisk x150
Concept: A Microsoft rep that isn't Steve or Master Chief x145
Impa (Age of Calamity) x135
Red (Angry Birds) x125
D.Va x115
[Rerate] Maxwell x110
Adol Christin x105

100 - 51

Echo: Coco (Crash) x100
Zero (Mega Man) x95
Concept: Second F-Zero rep x94
Mii Costume: Alex Kidd x93
Boss: Ender Dragon x83
Stage: Bowser's Castle x81
Concept: Darksiders rep x80
Sackboy x80
Riptor x80
[Rerate] Chibi-Robo x80
Miriam x80
Fulgore x79
Concept: More ATs as one new item x75
[Rerate] Concept: Boss Rush x70
Concept: Rocket League rep x70
Dwight Fairfield (Dead by Daylight) x70
Hajime Hinata x70
Giygas x65
Boss: Rayquaza x60
Concept: SNES-era Final Fantasy rep x55
Concept: Fortnite character x55
Gooigi x55
Vi (Bug Fables) x55
Echo (Olimar) x51

50 - 25

Echo: Zeraora (Lucario) x50
[Rerate] Jin Kazama x50
Magolor x50
John Marston x50
Jin Sakai x50
[Rerate] Monokuma x50
Ghirahim x50
[Rerate] The Knight x40
Don-chan x40
[Rerate] Concept: New Zelda character x30
[Rerate] Arle Nadja x30

Under 25

Ryza (Atelier) x20
Carl Johnson x20
Tetra x15
Yarn Yoshi x15
Tetris x10
Qbby x10
Cynthia (Pokémon) x5
Concept: Rocket League content x5
[Rerate] Thrall x5
Stage: Tetris x5
[Rerate] Agumon x5
[Rerate] Lara Croft x5
Echo (Bowser) x5
Concept: A Challenger Pack with 2 Fighters x5
Billy & Jimmy Lee x5
Concept: The remaining SSB4 DLC Mii Costumes return (or get the deluxe treatment) x5

Jason Frudnick & SOPHIA dig under Sakura Shinguji and emerge in second place. Amiya shoots past 200 noms and ties with Content from currently unreleased game for sixth place.

Adol Christin cuts through 100 noms.

Arle Nadja pops up at over 25 noms.

Today's new nominees, all with 5 noms, are Billy & Jimmy Lee, the concepts A Challenger Pack with 2 Fighters and The remaining SSB4 DLC Mii Costumes return (or get the deluxe treatment), and an Echo for Bowser.

Hey mate only realised this now but my nom for Tetris stage was meant to be a Tetris99 stage

Edit:

Chance - 20% I think if we are looking for a Koei Techmo rep it'll be for relationship building with Nintendo. Ryu Hayabuse is the exception as hr is a fan favorite and iconic. Thus I put a Dynasty Warriors rep quite low. I also think a Zelda Age of Calamity rep is more likely if we are to get a Dynasty esque game rep. But my money is on Ryu if Nintendo is to work with KT. And thats coming from someone who would rather a Fatal Fram or Hyrule Warriore:AoC rep.

Want: Abstain I never played DW

Noms: Tetris99 stage x5

Predict: 4%

 

[Sari]

Day over.

Rate Concept: Deltarune Content.

Predict Billy Hatcher from the Billy Hatcher and the Giant Egg.

Megadoomer

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Some songs to get into the Deltarune mood:

Spoiler: Deltarune Music

 

[Perkilator]

Holy anagram, Batman!

Chance: 0%
We got a Mii Costume of SANS not too long ago. I’m not sure Toby wants to be bothered again for Deltarune content.

Want: Abstain
Never played Deltarune. I can’t fairly judge it.

Billy Hatcher: 20%

Noms:
Crazy Dave x5

 

[fogbadge]

abstain, only heard of it on here. nominate chibi-robo x5

 

[Lionfranky]

I also want to abstain since I haven't played Deltarune.

Predict: Billy Hatcher 3%
Nom: Neptune x 5

 

[Sari]

Concept: Deltarune content

Chance: 0.1%
We're still lacking a ton of Undertale content. If we're getting any additional content from a Toby Fox game - whether it be a spirit event or a Mii Costume - it'll probably still be from Undertale since it'd be much easier to sell (imagine a Papyrus costume). I'm not even sure if we'll double-dip on Toby Fox content after the Sans costume.

Want: Abstain
Never played Deltarune so I won't comment.

-----

Billy Hatcher chance prediction: 2.00% (just about every Sega character is probably gonna have priority over him)

Nominations:
Concept: The remaining SSB4 DLC Mii Costumes return (or get a deluxe enhancement) x5

 

[Jomosensual]

Gonna abstain here again because I don't know the series and lasik has my eyes a bit too tired to do tons of typing/research. I will say that I'd think that if any Toby fox game makes it as playable Undertale would have been it

Predictions
Billy Hatcher - 2.41


Noms;
Stretchers x5

If the Stretchers are a part of the new schedule then I'll go

Non Steve/Chief Microsoft rep x5

 

[DanganZilla5]

Deltarune content

Abstain. I'm not interested in talking about this game as I'm perfectly happy with the Sans Mii costume. Though I will say that depending on when the game comes out, there might be a spirit event.

Prediction: Billy Hatcher - 2%

Noms: Arthur x5

 

[Lyncario]

Deltarune content, whatever it is

Chances: 5%
Technicaly there's already "Deltarune" content with the Sans mii costume as he also appear in Deltarune, and also because while it's not a sequel but rather an alternate universe it's still the same "series", I guess. However, if we talk about something else than Sans, eh, it could happen, but I think that it's really unlikely because of how Deltarune still only has a single chapter, and aparently it will take quite a while to finish (I kinda remember Toby Fox aynig that it would take him like 2 or 3 years with a team, or 5 if he does it alone, at a tthat point, the Smash Ultimate dlc cycle will be long since over). However, I do think that it's possible that we get a Kris mii costume in the next challenger packs, as while it's not as popular as Undertale, Deltarune is still extremly popular, and being Toby's secnod work in the UT verse, it explains itself pretty easily. Could Nintendo want a Mii costume or spirit event of it? Yes, but it's unlikly in my eyes, due to how we only have a sngle chapter of it. Also there's just no chance of it getting a character in the 4 final slots, just saynig that to be clear, because there's just no way this would happen.

Want: 75%

It would be very cool to have, in my opinion. While Deltarune only has a single chapter and we will probably not see more of it until a while, I still think that the first chapter is extremly good, in fact I say that this one chapter Deltarune has is just better than UT on everything that isn't having a finished story. Better combat, better humor, better twist, I just found it very good, especialy since it feels even more "Toby Fox"-y than UT is. A mii costume of Kris with The World Revolving would really be cool to have in my opinion, and I'm also pretty much sure that it's the only thing we could really have (with or without the track), I don't think it would get a spirit event, maybe there would be a Deltarune spirit along UT spirits in an UT spirit event, but I don't think that it would happen. Anyway,

Noinations

Cynthia: x10

Predictions

Billy Hatcher: 4.2%

 

[GoodGrief741]

THESE CHARACTERS ARE LOCKED DOWN, NOMINATIONS FOR THEM ARE OBSOLETE

Day 519: Billy Hatcher (Billy Hatcher and the Giant Egg)
Day 520: Jason Frudnick & SOPHIA (Blaster Master)
Day 521: Sakura Shinguji (Sakura Wars)
Day 522: Zelda (BotW universe)
Day 523: The Stretchers (The Stretchers)
Day 524: Amiya (Arknights)
Day 525: Hades (Kid Icarus)

Hades snuck into the schedule at the last minute, taking the place of Content from currently unreleased game. That's so Hades!

Your new top seven consists of Content from currently unreleased game, Mii Costume: Jill Stingray, Neptune, Alex Mason, A Bravely Default character, Arthur, and Pokémon Mystery Dungeon content.

Spoiler: Nominations post-Lu Bu pre-Concept: Deltarune content

Concept: Content from currently unreleased game (not Spirit Events) (as of May 17th 2020) x205
Mii Costume: Jill Stingray x199
Neptune (Hyperdimension Neptunia) x190
Alex Mason x185
Concept: A Bravely Default character x180
Arthur (Ghosts 'n Goblins) x180
Concept: Pokémon Mystery Dungeon content x171

200 - 151

Impa (Age of Calamity) x155

150 - 101

[Rerate] Frisk x150
Concept: A Microsoft rep that isn't Steve or Master Chief x145
Red (Angry Birds) x125
Adol Christin x120
D.Va x115
[Rerate] Maxwell x110
Echo: Coco (Crash) x110

100 - 51

Concept: Second F-Zero rep x99
Zero (Mega Man) x95
Mii Costume: Alex Kidd x93
[Rerate] Chibi-Robo x85
Miriam x85
Boss: Ender Dragon x83
Stage: Bowser's Castle x81
Concept: Darksiders rep x80
Sackboy x80
Riptor x80
Fulgore x79
Concept: More ATs as one new item x75
Dwight Fairfield (Dead by Daylight) x75
Hajime Hinata x75
[Rerate] Concept: Boss Rush x70
Concept: Rocket League rep x70
Giygas x65
Boss: Rayquaza x60
Concept: SNES-era Final Fantasy rep x55
Concept: Fortnite character x55
Gooigi x55
Vi (Bug Fables) x55
Echo (Olimar) x51

50 - 25

Echo: Zeraora (Lucario) x50
[Rerate] Jin Kazama x50
Magolor x50
John Marston x50
Jin Sakai x50
[Rerate] Monokuma x50
Ghirahim x50
Don-chan x45
[Rerate] The Knight x40
[Rerate] Arle Nadja x40
[Rerate] Concept: New Zelda character x30
Carl Johnson x25

Under 25

Ryza (Atelier) x20
Tetra x15
Yarn Yoshi x15
Concept: A Challenger Pack with 2 Fighters x15
Tetris x10
Qbby x10
Billy & Jimmy Lee x10
Cynthia (Pokémon) x5
Concept: Rocket League content x5
[Rerate] Thrall x5
Stage: Tetris x5
[Rerate] Agumon x5
[Rerate] Lara Croft x5
Echo (Bowser) x5
Concept: The remaining SSB4 DLC Mii Costumes return (or get the deluxe treatment) x5
Stage: Tetris 99 x5

Impa sneaks past 150 noms.

Echo: Coco jumps past 100 noms.

Carl Johnson steals 25 noms.

Joining the list today is Stage: Tetris 99, with 5 noms.

Perkilator Lyncario You probably want to edit your noms.

Hey mate only realised this now but my nom for Tetris stage was meant to be a Tetris99 stage

If memory serves me right those nominations were counted, but we had a nominations purge later and they were erased. Those you see for a Tetris stage were given later by someone else. Your new ones have been counted, of course.

 

[chocolatejr9]

Abstain. I know next to nothing about Deltarune.

Nominations: [Rerate] Monokuma x5

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

Nutdealer
Chance: 45%
Just look at the reaction the sans costume got. I could easily see Nintendo trying to catch second wind of Toby Fox hype, especially since he apparently lives in Japan, don't quote me on that though. Can't really think of a reason why they wouldn't. While we only have chapter 1 released so far, I don't think that matters much. Timing is key and they likely wouldn't wait multiple years for the complete game to be complete. It also already has significant popularity and even merch, showing that cashing in early is no problem. A deluxe Kris swordfighter costume could easiliy work, a Jevil costume doesn't sound far fetched either, maybe even a Ralsei hat&scarf combo. Shame we don't have a Mii spellcaster in that case. A spirit event is also possible, tho they don't happen often and we still don't have one for Undertale so it actually doesn't seem as likely as a costume. A character/stage is a major stretch, I'll admit that.

Want: 80%
It kinda depends. The Kris costume I mentioned, while probably the likeliest also sounds like the most boring option. It'll also be hard to recapture the magic of that sans reveal, since Deltarune hasn't yet made the same impact Undertale has for many people, including me mainly due to how short and easy chapter 1 was. Honestly, I'd strangely prefer a Papyrus costume, which this concept would kinda compete with. We're also still mainly talking about costumes and spirits here and I don't show too much excitement for those. Don't get me wrong tho, I enjoyed my time with Deltarune and I'm looking forward to the next chapter. While we already have Undertale acknowledged in Smash, I think the other side of the same coin which is Deltaune deserves some representation as well... atleast best boy Ralsei does.

Billy Hatcher: 6.11%
The Knight x10

 

[amageish]

deltarune Content

Chance: 12%. This seems plausible by the power of vagueness. Toby and Nintendo still have a good relationship (or at least Toby and Game Freak do) and if Sans sold well (which I assume he must have, given the reaction to him?), then they could potentially see benefits in doing more collabs. UNDERTALE is also a kind of unique case in how its a western indie game that took off in Japan, which doesn't exactly happen with every indie franchise that we consider when discussing big indie franchises... We also never got a spirit event for UNDERTALE when Cuphead did get one, so maybe we get a Toby spirit event and they include the deltarune protag trio as one spirit? However, there are also just a lot of popular UNDERTALE characters who could be spirited or costumed instead, so maybe they'd want to focus on the complete (and also not-free) game instead...

Not to mention that the most popular deltarune character (as far as I have seen, at least), is Ralsei, who resides in that awkward space of magic-user which is a bit harder to costume - not impossible, of course, but doesn't fit cleanly into the archetypes we have going of Sword/Gun/Fist. I mean, I guess you could try to make his scarf into a sword? Or... um... a gun out of magic? It just sounds a bit harder.

I'm not going too high just because there are a lot of franchises that could be put into Smash in general and the Mii-Costuming of characters like Travis and spiriting of franchises like River City makes me feel the goal may just be to min-max crossover potential in the final couple years of Smash.

Want: 90%. I mean, I enjoyed deltarune and would take some content from it. I also just generally like more things being in Smash in general, including third-party spirit events and costumes, so I would take more things. Also maybe Toby would bring back music coming with Mii Costumes... I'd like that to come back a lot too. "Field of Hopes and Dreams" remix please!

Predictions: We've been discussing a lot of franchises with recent/upcoming reboots lately, eh? 5%.
Noms: Jill Stingray Mii Costume x 10

 

[Calamitas]

U late nerd

Chance: 25%
I can easily see it happening. Undertale is already a big deal in Japan, and Famitsu had some exclusive coverage of new Deltarune content. And that's on top of the also huge fanbase that Undertale and Deltarune have in the West. And since today's concept isn't specifically about a character, I see no issue with giving this a decently high score. Whether it be a Mii costume or a Spirit event, I would not be surprised if we saw something from Deltarune. However. . . there's also the issue of Undertale that needs to be considered. While we did get the Sans Mii costume with Megalovania, there still has yet to be an Undertale spirit event, which honestly should be a no-brainer. And honestly, part of me thinks this needs to happen before Deltarune content can.

Want: 80%
Sure, I'd like to see it happen. I only managed to play Undertale for myself after it came to Switch, but when I did, I jumped into Deltarune right thereafter. And as of right now, I'm eagerly anticipating any news on Deltarune chapter 2, which according to a recent update, could be finished before the end of the year. So I'm all for content from it making it into Smash. Be it a Kris Mii costume with Rude Buster (or The World Revolving), or even just a Spirit Event, I'd be down for it.

Nominating Concept: A Bravely Default character x10

Predicting Billy Hatcher to get around 3.12%.

 

[Ridrool64]

Nut Dealer

Chance: 1% (unless you want to count Sans, which would make it 100%, but that's cheating IMO). Even assuming that Toby's content didn't stop with Sans' Mii Costume, I think more Undertale content would get priority 10 times out of 10. Undertale has only one song, there's still a candidate for a Fighter in Frisk, a bunch of spirits left for another event, even more characters for Mii Costuming, there's plenty more to go on. Deltarune, meanwhile, has only had a single chapter released that doesn't paint the full picture of the final product. That heavily limits what can be done in terms of... anything, really. Who's to say that Lancer, Ralsei and Susie will remain important in the future like they were in Chapter 1? Why spoil a game that's not even out yet? Nothing about this would make any sense. I don't think Deltarune is getting anything, not a Challenger Pack, Mii Costume or Spirit. Very confident it won't happen, but since it incorporates Miis and Spirit Events rather than being SOLELY a Challenger Pack, I guess it could possibly happen anyway.

Want: 0%. I don't want content from a game that straight up isn't done. I don't mean games that are continually getting updates, I mean games that have not had anything more than a demo release to their name so far. And I don't think Toby would either. Either the content barely represents the game or it's all spoiler after spoiler after spoiler. Also for once genuine Frisk competition if we're talking about anything, really. Even competition for a Spirit Event is still competition.

That being said, from what we've seen, IMO Deltarune is going to be great. Nothing against the game on a personal level, I just don't think it should be in Smash yet.

Arle and CJ x 5. Billy Hatcher has a bunch of flaws and pretty much no strengths to his name. 3.63%.

 

[fogbadge]

THESE CHARACTERS ARE LOCKED DOWN, NOMINATIONS FOR THEM ARE OBSOLETE

Day 519: Billy Hatcher (Billy Hatcher and the Giant Egg)
Day 520: Jason Frudnick & SOPHIA (Blaster Master)
Day 521: Sakura Shinguji (Sakura Wars)
Day 522: Zelda (BotW universe)
Day 523: The Stretchers (The Stretchers)
Day 524: Amiya (Arknights)
Day 525: Hades (Kid Icarus)

Hades snuck into the schedule at the last minute, taking the place of Content from currently unreleased game. That's so Hades!

Your new top seven consists of Content from currently unreleased game, Mii Costume: Jill Stingray, Neptune, Alex Mason, A Bravely Default character, Arthur, and Pokémon Mystery Dungeon content.

Spoiler: Nominations post-Lu Bu pre-Concept: Deltarune content

Concept: Content from currently unreleased game (not Spirit Events) (as of May 17th 2020) x205
Mii Costume: Jill Stingray x199
Neptune (Hyperdimension Neptunia) x190
Alex Mason x185
Concept: A Bravely Default character x180
Arthur (Ghosts 'n Goblins) x180
Concept: Pokémon Mystery Dungeon content x171

200 - 151

Impa (Age of Calamity) x155

150 - 101

[Rerate] Frisk x150
Concept: A Microsoft rep that isn't Steve or Master Chief x145
Red (Angry Birds) x125
Adol Christin x120
D.Va x115
[Rerate] Maxwell x110
Echo: Coco (Crash) x110

100 - 51

Concept: Second F-Zero rep x99
Zero (Mega Man) x95
Mii Costume: Alex Kidd x93
[Rerate] Chibi-Robo x85
Miriam x85
Boss: Ender Dragon x83
Stage: Bowser's Castle x81
Concept: Darksiders rep x80
Sackboy x80
Riptor x80
Fulgore x79
Concept: More ATs as one new item x75
Dwight Fairfield (Dead by Daylight) x75
Hajime Hinata x75
[Rerate] Concept: Boss Rush x70
Concept: Rocket League rep x70
Giygas x65
Boss: Rayquaza x60
Concept: SNES-era Final Fantasy rep x55
Concept: Fortnite character x55
Gooigi x55
Vi (Bug Fables) x55
Echo (Olimar) x51

50 - 25

Echo: Zeraora (Lucario) x50
[Rerate] Jin Kazama x50
Magolor x50
John Marston x50
Jin Sakai x50
[Rerate] Monokuma x50
Ghirahim x50
Don-chan x45
[Rerate] The Knight x40
[Rerate] Arle Nadja x40
[Rerate] Concept: New Zelda character x30
Carl Johnson x25

Under 25

Ryza (Atelier) x20
Tetra x15
Yarn Yoshi x15
Concept: A Challenger Pack with 2 Fighters x15
Tetris x10
Qbby x10
Billy & Jimmy Lee x10
Cynthia (Pokémon) x5
Concept: Rocket League content x5
[Rerate] Thrall x5
Stage: Tetris x5
[Rerate] Agumon x5
[Rerate] Lara Croft x5
Echo (Bowser) x5
Concept: The remaining SSB4 DLC Mii Costumes return (or get the deluxe treatment) x5
Stage: Tetris 99 x5

Impa sneaks past 150 noms.

Echo: Coco jumps past 100 noms.

Carl Johnson steals 25 noms.

Joining the list today is Stage: Tetris 99, with 5 noms.

Perkilator Lyncario You probably want to edit your noms.


If memory serves me right those nominations were counted, but we had a nominations purge later and they were erased. Those you see for a Tetris stage were given later by someone else. Your new ones have been counted, of course.

i was just wondering when we were next due that when i clicked on here

 

[BowserKing]

Deltarune content

Chance: 1%. While we have a Sans Mii Costume, we don’t have spirits yet. Besides that, I highly doubt there will be Deltarune representation outside of spirits and/or Mii Costumes. But then again, we have been surprised before, hence the 1%.

Want: 50%. On the other hand, I would enjoy Deltarune content, mainly the music part of it. The fighter chosen would be fun to play as. Otherall, the content would be a decent idea, as long as it is well represented.

Prediction: Billy Hatcher (10%)

Noms: 5 for Echo: Bowser

 

[GoodGrief741]

Rent a duel

Chance: 20%
Deltarune's first chapter is already out, and on the Switch to boot, but I don't know if timing will work out in its favor. Yes, Undertale has a Mii Costume already in Smash. And yes, Sakurai and Toby Fox appear to get along nicely. So I'm not dismissing the possibility that we see more of his stuff in Smash. It's just that Deltarune in particular feels like it depends on stuff we don't know. Like when Chapter 2 will release, for example. Chapter 1 did already come out, it was pretty great and from what I can tell people are excited for more, but it's not a finished game. Toby is one guy, he knows his limitations, and I don't think he'll want to showcase Deltarune already (and risk overexposure/backlash/who knows what other internet ****ery). Unless the second chapter is coming somewhat soon after. For Nintendo I imagine it'd be a big get, Undertale was a critical darling and a worldwide hit, so it really falls to Fox imo. I think as of right now we'd probably get Papyrus or Undyne Miis over, say, Suzie or Ralsei. Though a Spirit Event could knock them all off.

Want: 100%
Sure, why not? I loved Deltarune, super excited for whatever comes next. Still has great characters, great writing, and great music. So I'd totally pay for a Mii Costume with a track, though Spirits wouldn't be bad either.

Noms: uhhh ok I'm trying to decide who to nominate next, right now I'm between cooking mama and scorpion. So if anyone's interested in either of those characters let me know.

(Note to future self: if I didn't decide when you read this just give all 10 noms to Mason. And I hope I'm having a good day)

Edit: Scorpion it is

Billy Hatcher prediction: 6.08%

 

[DrifloonEmpire]

Deltarune Content

Chance: 5% - I won't discount it entirely, it's on Switch, has popularity of its' own, and could get something small based on the first chapter. A Kris swordfighter Mii or a spirit event at some point seem plausible. But a full-on fighter pack just isn't in the cards. Not only would Undertale more than likely get priority (the much bigger of the two, plus the more popular; Pretty much everyone knows Undertale while Deltarune is, while popular in its' own right, bigger with people who are already Undertale fans. You don't see people talking about Lancer or Ralsei in the same way you see Papyrus and Sans), but the Sans Mii was added when the second pass was already decided. Yes, Toby's easy to work with, but I don't see Nintendo giving him all of this content while so many other big indies are still empty-handed. Plus, like people have mentioned, Deltarune isn't even finished yet. The content would be much dependent on how the game progresses. and we need the full picture to determine level of importance for different elements.

Building on that point, there's the matter of Sans. As of now he's just a cameo in the game, but his dialogue in Deltarune hints that he's more aware of things than he seems, so he'll likely play a bigger role as the story continues. As such, in a way Sans represents both games already, and is pretty much Toby Fox's mascot.

Overall, I see Deltarune MAYBE getting a spirit event but that's about as much as I'll give it.

Want: 20% - This really depends on the content. I wouldn't mind a Mii, and I think a spirit event would be fun! But I don't think it's time yet for a full-fledged fighter, especially with the bigger of the two unrepresented with a fighter. Even above that, as of now more historically significant indies like Cave Story (from which Toby Fox draws a lot of inspiration from) have nothing at all, let alone many significant modern indies. I'd just rather see something like Cave Story given good representation before giving Toby all of this stuff. That aside, Deltarune has a lot of cool stage potential and environments that would make for a very colorful character pack. Furthermore, gameplay-wise I actually liked Deltarune way more than Undertale, so while I think the latter deserves it more I wouldn't be upset at all if Deltarune was chosen instead. Overall, it really depends on the kind of content rather than if they get it or not.


Nominations:
Don-chan x5
Neptune x5

Predictions:
Billy Hatcher - 3.47% - Billy Hatcher as of now hasn't gotten a sequel, is pretty old by now, and has competition with many more significant SEGA franchises. So I'm not expecting high ratings here.

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

Spoiler: Nominations post-Lu Bu pre-Concept: Deltarune content

Concept: Content from currently unreleased game (not Spirit Events) (as of May 17th 2020) x205
Mii Costume: Jill Stingray x199
Neptune (Hyperdimension Neptunia) x190
Alex Mason x185
Concept: A Bravely Default character x180
Arthur (Ghosts 'n Goblins) x180
Concept: Pokémon Mystery Dungeon content x171

200 - 151

Impa (Age of Calamity) x155

150 - 101

[Rerate] Frisk x150
Concept: A Microsoft rep that isn't Steve or Master Chief x145
Red (Angry Birds) x125
Adol Christin x120
D.Va x115
[Rerate] Maxwell x110
Echo: Coco (Crash) x110

100 - 51

Concept: Second F-Zero rep x99
Zero (Mega Man) x95
Mii Costume: Alex Kidd x93
[Rerate] Chibi-Robo x85
Miriam x85
Boss: Ender Dragon x83
Stage: Bowser's Castle x81
Concept: Darksiders rep x80
Sackboy x80
Riptor x80
Fulgore x79
Concept: More ATs as one new item x75
Dwight Fairfield (Dead by Daylight) x75
Hajime Hinata x75
[Rerate] Concept: Boss Rush x70
Concept: Rocket League rep x70
Giygas x65
Boss: Rayquaza x60
Concept: SNES-era Final Fantasy rep x55
Concept: Fortnite character x55
Gooigi x55
Vi (Bug Fables) x55
Echo (Olimar) x51

50 - 25

Echo: Zeraora (Lucario) x50
[Rerate] Jin Kazama x50
Magolor x50
John Marston x50
Jin Sakai x50
[Rerate] Monokuma x50
Ghirahim x50
Don-chan x45
[Rerate] The Knight x40
[Rerate] Arle Nadja x40
[Rerate] Concept: New Zelda character x30
Carl Johnson x25

Under 25

Ryza (Atelier) x20
Tetra x15
Yarn Yoshi x15
Concept: A Challenger Pack with 2 Fighters x15
Tetris x10
Qbby x10
Billy & Jimmy Lee x10
Cynthia (Pokémon) x5
Concept: Rocket League content x5
[Rerate] Thrall x5
Stage: Tetris x5
[Rerate] Agumon x5
[Rerate] Lara Croft x5
Echo (Bowser) x5
Concept: The remaining SSB4 DLC Mii Costumes return (or get the deluxe treatment) x5
Stage: Tetris 99 x5

Noticed that we still have "Boss: Ender Dragon" on the nom list. Shouldn't we consider that disconfirmed now?

 

[Cutie Gwen]

I genuinely know nothing about Deltarune so I'm going to have to double abstain here.

Miriam x5

 

[DanganZilla5]

GoodGrief741 I'm interested in rating Scorpion (even though I know what the general consensus would be for chance). I don't know about any of you, but we haven't rated Mortal Kombat in a long time and I want to gush over it.

 

[fogbadge]

GoodGrief741 I'm interested in rating Scorpion (even though I know what the general consensus would be for chance). I don't know about any of you, but we haven't rated Mortal Kombat in a long time and I want to gush over it.

youre gonna have to start nominating

 

[PeridotGX]

Is this with me in the dark? I forgot.

Chance - 20%. I think it is unlikely we don't get anything else from a Toby Fox game. The Sans costume had a bigger reaction then most characters got, it'd be ridiculous to not try and get lightning to strike twice. If it's another Mii costume, they might go for Ralsei or Kris. If there's a spirit event, one of the spirits could be dedicated to the Deltarune team. Lastly, if we get a fighter (which I don't think is impossible), there would obviously be a few Deltarune spirits.

Want - 80%. I would prefer more Undertale content. I would still like Deltarune content though. It's soundtrack is as good as the Undertale soundtrack, Field of Hopes and Dreams and The World Revolving especially. The locations and characters are good too, of course. And that's just from the first chapter, who knows how good the rest of the game will be...

(Deltarune chapter 1 is free and is on the Switch Eshop. GET IT!)

Noms - PMD x however many noms I have.

 

[Mr. MR]

Deltarune Content

Chance: 0.5%
It's already a miracle that we got a Sans Mii Costume and not only that but Megalovania as well. That's a whole lot of content for an indie game. Shantae hasn't even gotten a Mii Costume or a soundtrack yet and I think her chances of getting that treatment are there but not huge. There's also other indie games that have yet to get content and who are close to Nintendo like Hollow Knight/Silksong. For spirit events, there are non-indie third parties and other Nintendo games that deserve it more. Despite how easy it may seem to produce spirits, they also come with a themed battle and spirit events don't come out that fast with new spirits anyway.

Want: Abstain
Haven't played Deltarune.

Noms: Impa x10
Predict: 1.5%

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Deltarune content

1% chance

First things first, we still are lacking Undertale content. I think an Undertale spirit event will happen at some point, so maybe something from Deltarune might slip in. But I think it’s more likely the Undertale spirits would just be Undertale spirits. Once you put aside the possibility of getting a spirit from that the odds slim. Deltarune is not Undertale yet. Undertale was/is huge, Deltarune is still only in chapter 1. I doubt we will get solo Deltarune spirits or A Deltarune Costume.

Abstain want

Deltarune is not finished. That is just a fact right now. The game is still being worked on and we only have chapter one. I don’t really feel comfortable giving a want score at this point. If it’s awesome, cool, I might be down. But judging it right now feels weird for me. If this was a character rating solo, I’d do a zero, but spirits/content is harder.

Coco as Crash’s Echo/Costume x 10

 

[Inue Houji]

Tundra Lee
Chance: 1%
I don't really see this happening. Sans getting in was already a miracle, and Undertale is much bigger than Deltarune. The only way I can see this happen is if Nintendo decides to sponsor the game or something. There's also no real standout character like Sans in the game. Not to mention, the game isn't even finished yet.

Want: 40%
The game is alright, but the thing I really want is the music. Undertale wouldn't be nearly as popular without Toby Fox' compositions. Ideally I'd want a stage DLC filled with music, but I doubt those will happen this time around, especially not third party ones. I guess I'll have to settle for the mii costume+music track combo.
It's not gonna happen though.

Predict Billy Hatcher: 0,5%

Nominations
Adol Christin x10

 

[DanganZilla5]

youre gonna have to start nominating

My comment was in response to him deciding which character he wanted to nominate.

 

[GoodGrief741]

Noticed that we still have "Boss: Ender Dragon" on the nom list. Shouldn't we consider that disconfirmed now?

Not really? I mean, it's not happening, but we don't have any statement or other conclusive evidence that we won't get DLC bosses. It's kinda like Echoes in that the longer we don't get one the less likely they get, but they probably won't be disconfirmed until DLC ends and they didn't happen.

Either way at this point we don't really let disconfirmations get in the way of nominations. Doomguy was even on the fixed schedule.

 

[Sari]

Day over.

Rate Billy Hatcher from Billy Hatcher and the Giant Egg.

Predict Jason Frudnick & SOPHIA from Blaster Master.

Megadoomer

-----

Some Billy Hatcher songs for today:

Spoiler: Billy Hatcher Music

 

[Perkilator]

Abstain. Never played Billy Hatcher.

Jason & SOPHIA: 10%

Noms:
Crazy Dave x5