Overrated/Underrated Character in Speculation
Characters won't be listed in a particular order
Overrated Characters:
Doom Slayer: A character who became popular via fake leaks, anniversary events (mostly the retro ports, which weren't Nintendo-specific mind you), and those quickly-annoying Doom/Isabelle memes, Doom Slayer rose to prominence in a typical ripples to waves effect. One can't deny Doom's legacy and how it grandfathered a genre, along with Nintendo/Bethesda's buddy-buddy nature, making people see him as a good choice. problem is, he was championed as the ONLY possible Bethesda rep despite Doom's lack of popularity in Japan (compared to The Elder Scrolls which is MUCH more popular in Japan along with Fallout, which has a decently sized fanbase of its' own in Japan despite the nuclear apocalypse themes). Even when the Metro interview slammed Doom Slayer's chances completely, his fanbase insisted that pretty much everything Marty Stratton has ever said was NDA lies. While his popularity has certainly died down a bit compared to last year, ignoring the interview is extremely stupid.
Shantae: I get that Min Min put spirits back on the table, but kinda like Rayman it seems like Shantae's been repeatedly passed over as a character, and so far we have yet to see an indie take a playable position. While I get that the corporate synergy is there, and that Shantae's been doing well, it's more niche than people think it is, and it has some extremely touch indies as competition.
Gordon Freeman/Heavy: Gonna rate these two as a set since I think they're overrated for the same reason. I get that Gordon is iconic and Heavy has plenty of fan demand, but people are forgetting something. Two little words: Corporate Synergy. Many of our character choices are determined by Nintendo's relationship with a company. It's how we have two Square Enix characters, Banjo, Bayonetta, Vault Boy Mii, etc. Company relations opened the door to these characters. Valve, on the other hand, has absolutely no relationship with Nintendo whatsoever (beyond a project that Valve flat out didn't make for some reason, which wouldn't exactly make relations positive), Nintendo has no reason at all to include a Valve character, especially since they seem to have little interest in the PC crowd. I get that there's a surprising overlap between Western Nintendo and Valve fans, but giving the two 30-40% rating scores on their previous day was just ludicrous.
2B: I get that she has a lot of similarities to Joker, including Sakurai's interest in the character, but I don't see lightning striking twice. Nintendo more than likely wanted to give Atlas a character for their support via Shin Megami Tensei and Sakurai campaigned for Joker (at least he has the Q games on 3DS and Scramble upcoming). None of the Nier or Drakengard games are on Nintendo systems, and the Switch isn't even getting the upcoming Nier Replicant rerelease. I just don't see 2B happening at all. Just because your game was good doesn't guarentee you a Smash spot.
Sakura/Reimu/Ryza: Gonna restate some stuff I posted in the Newcomer Speculation thread a couple of days ago. While I get the big popularity in Japan, thinking they're likely and underrated choices is ridiculous, especially them being compared to Joker and Hero. All three of them have a common issue keeping them back and that is both lack of presence and marketability in the west (at least for the first two) and a lack of attention from Nintendo. Almost none of Sakura Wars has been localized and the lack of knowledge of said franchise in one of Nintendo's biggest markets doesn't exactly fare well for a DLC character that has to be individuality purchased. The days of character circumstances like Marth/Roy/Lucas are long over and Sakurai expressed that he doesn't want to see this happen again. It's what kept Takamaru out and will no doubt keep Sakura out as well. Same goes for Reimu, and while Touhou is less of a literal who, non-internet savvy people aren't going to know who she is, and if also one man only worldwide sensation franchise Sans got just a Mii Costume, what does that say about Reimu? Furthermore, both characters have never been promoted by Nintendo in any of their directs despite the presence of Touhou fangames on the Switch. Meanwhile Ryza HAS been promoted in Directs.... in Japan only (in the September direct last year we got a Doom 64 segment in her place). If Nintendo doesn't even have the confidence to advertise these characters' normal games, either outside of Japan or AT ALL, then what makes people think they'll be high-profile Smash DLC choices? It's ludicrous to compare them to Persona or Dragon Quest, which, while not juggernauts like Japan, still have a decent Western presence and have for years. and if you want to rally behind a primarily Japan character that actually is rising in th west and actually is being promoted by Nintendo, then Arle is a much better choice (and this is coming from someone who'd much rather have a second Sonic rep).
Geno: The more I lurk the Geno thread, the more skeptical I become of the "evidence" and the insistence that this cult character is an 100% lock. While we have been getting fan favorites this game, including Banjo-Kazooie (and despite the parllells of seemingly little pieces of evidence adding up), they were N64 mascots (as opposed to an RPG one-off) elevated to the likes of Mario, DK, and Pikachu, and it was more than just fan demand that got them in. It took corporate synergy (Minecraft) to pave the way for Rare to have talks with Nintendo. I just don't see this same thing happening for Geno, especially when Square hasn't used the character for over 20 years beyond Geno's spirit and a couple of cameos. Plus with the greatly waning possibility of Cacomallow's legitimacy, I just don't think Geno is coming.
KOS-MOS: The ultimate definition of a bandwagon character and a character on life support, she's only been kept alive via crossover appearances and MonolithSoft shoehorning her into cosmic everything. Xenosaga was never on Nintendo systems, market surveys told that a Xenosaga remaster had little to no interest and profitability, and most of all, Nintendo would rather promote their OWN Xeno franchise. And when your competition is one of the most likely characters for Fighter's Pass 2 (Rex), things aren't looking good for you.
Porky: His missing spirit is no longer a factor and Earthbound isn't even being released on NSO if that one Twitter post is to be believed. There has been a resurgence in interest thanks to Undertale and the recent anniversary stuff, but any of his missing content being evidence is long outdated by now. I get it, people love Earthbound, but Porky really has no evidence to stand on right now.
Underrated Characters:
Prince of All Cosmos: A victim of the "Lloyd or nothing" mentality, non Tales/KOS-MOS Namco characters really aren't given the chance they deserve. Katamari Damacy is famous enough to be featured in the Museum of Modern Art, A majority of gamers know the franchise (even if they don't remember the prince, the King, the Katamari itself, and the iconic theme song have caught a lot of eyes), it's a quirky Japanese game that actually managed to spawn a franchise where most would fail and even had EVERY game localized (the latter being something even Tales of couldn't do). The 15th anniversary was last year, there's been hints at a We Love Katamari remaster via cousin artwork, the series has more merchandise than it did during its' heyday, and Reroll introduced the series to loads of new people, even raking 4th internationally on the eShop at the time of release despite releasing the same day as Smash Ultimate (beating out Let's Go Pikachu/Eevee as well). Let's not forget that it was chosen to spearhead a series of remasters (that followed with Mr. Driller DRILLAND along with other rumored new remasters such as Klonoa), showing Namco's confidence in the brand. There's also the fact that, despite being a taunt (that didn't stop Heihachi speculation!), spirits no longer deconfirm, and it shows that he was in the minds of the developers. Considering Reroll's success The Prince could very well have caught Namco's attention. Let's not forget that unlike Lloyd, The Prince doesn't have to worry about a potentially returning Mii Costume, and with Heihachi's costume coming back so late in the game, it's only a matter of time before Lloyd's is next in line.
Dragonborn: Extremely underrated choice that did have some time in the sun thanks to Fatmanonice but is otherwise ignored. Skyrim isn't just lol wacky Todd memes that released on everything. It is the most influential and best selling game in a very influential, successful, and long running franchise (for context, TES1: Arena released March 24th 1994, just 4 months after the first Doom). And Each game essentially triples sales. Morrowind sold 4 million, Oblivion sold 9.8 Million, and Skyrim sold 33 Million and recently beat out the anticipated Doom 64 rerelease in the recent Bethesda sale. Plus Morrowind was nominated for Game of the Year while Oblivion and Skyrim both won it (mere nomination is something a lot of people use to justify Joker). The game is the first western game to get a perfect 40/40 on Famitsu, Japan really likes the game, Todd Howard clearly likes Nintendo with the Zelda collaboration items and motion controls in Skyrim for Switch, and Skyrim itself (along with OIblivion and Morrowind before it) was the trendsetter for open world games (especially in the 2010s), with none other than recent Nintendo super success Breath of the Wild taking heavy design cues from it. Dragonborn is by far one of the most likely Western characters, and if the Vault Boy mii costume tells us anything, it's that negotiations were on the Bethesda Game Studios side of Bethesda (further supported by Marty Stratton mentioning that Nintendo has no talks with iD Software).
Chosen Undead/Nightmare: Two more Namco contenders harmed by the "Lloyd or Nothing" mentality, both characters are influential in their own right. Dark Souls essentially coined a term for difficult games, is a very acclaimed trilogy of games, and had a recent release on Nintendo systems, paired with the it's own Solaire of Astora amiibo! Soul Calibur meanwhile was an influential series of 2.5D fighters prominently known for crossovers (Soul Calibur 2 even had Link!) and until recently was a well-performing and successful Namco franchise. Not much to say other than (despite Soul Calibur's general under performance in recent years) that these two really don't get enough credit despite their merits. Though I am happy to see that both of them made the fixed schedule!
Professor Layton: A juggernaut in Smash 4 speculation days who really took an undeserved tumble. No doubt he had good performance in the ballot, so what changed for him? More than likely the rise (and fall) of Yo-Kai Watch along with the current internal troubles within Level-5 and the break fron Nintendo exclusivity. This more than likely hurt people's confidence in Layton and caused levels of support to drop despite his fantastic credentials. Layton deserves more support, like his buddy Phoenix Wright his series is almost purely on Nintendo systems!
Quote: The father of indie games and big in the late 2000's (to the point where "Play Cave Story" was the original "Play Undertale"), Cave Story caused the indie boom and a lot of modern indies (like the aforementioned Undertale) owe so much to it. Furthermore, Cave Story has been on Nintendo systems since 2007 thanks to Nicalis, them putting their games exclusively on Switch on the console side of things. While he's ultimately been overshadowed by Shovel Knight and other modern indies, his role in history is not to be forgotten, and with Cave Story+ being readily available on Switch he isn't exactly irrelevant either.
Lara Croft: Not a character I'm interested in personally but it surprises me she doesn't get much discussion nonetheless. Her series has historical significance and is the third highest selling Square Enix franchise behind Final Fantasy and Dragon Quest. A lot of the Square Enix attention is on Geno, Sora, or the Bravely series, so Lara kinda gets set aside (despite the good scores she got on her last rerate). Plus she has tons of moveset potential with her artifacts, but I guess a lot of people are turned off from supporting her due to more exposure from her more modern incarnation who's much more generic by comparison. She also isn't that big in Japan (but still has a fanbase nonetheless) and has seen less releases on Nintendo systems in recent years (along with a need to negotiate with the Europe-based Eidos whish introduces a language barrier), so that's probably why she isn't talked about often. Still I think she deserves a fair chance!
General 2K Games Rep (Bioshock/Civilization): With the appearance of NBA 2k in the Switch reveal trailer, along with the many other ports from 2k the Switch has received (from Civ 6 and the Bioshock Trilogy to the quite disastrous WWE2k18) it's surprising 2k doesn't get discussed for another potential western company for a rep. The 2k <3 Nintendo campaign that still frequents the Switch news page is evident of a good relationship between the two companies, and there's even a little history as well (Civ 1 on SNES, Civ Rev DS). A character like Booker Dewitt/Elizabeth (more likely the former since you more frequently play as him) or a Civilization rep like Gandhi (his Civ incarnation is basically his own character at this point and he's pretty much the mascot for the franchise) should've gotten on the fixed schedule as a 2k-themed day. Both franchises have very successful and notable histories, and 2k as a whole deserves a bigger place in discussions.
Nominations:
Prince of All Cosmos x10
Predictions:
Non-Video game character recieves a Mii Costume - 1.42% - Outside of a potential Mickey Costume with Sora, I'm not expecting much confidence in the concept.
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