Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[Blankiturayman]

Okay, I thought the purge was already done, and IIRC I have some extra noms so I'll use them to save Zero instead. I already edited my original post to include that.

 

[SharkLord]

5. Ryza
Look, I'm all for discussing the underdogs. But people really pick poor underdogs. Atelier is just a very poor candidate for Smash, it's an incredibly niche series, bordering on obscure, that has no real impact or influence to speak of. The only reason we're discussing her is because of the fake leak and the game's presence on the Japanese Partner Direct (nevermind that the sheer fact that they only featured the game in Japan speaks volumes about their belief on the IP's commercial prospects in the West). I do think she's kinda becoming a new KOS-MOS, in some regards.

Obviously I can't speak for the rest of Ryza's supporters, but I think you're overestimating what I think of her chances. While it is incorrect to say that Atelier has no impact at all-It popularized alchemy in JRPGs, became famous in Japan due to how much the older games stood out from most RPGs of the time, and becoming more popular than ever in recent years, I am well aware that Reisalin "Ryza" Stout from Atelier Ryza: Ever Darkness & the Secret Hideout, the 21st mainline game in Koie-Tecmo's Atelier series ultimately isn't all that likely for Smash.
However, I don't care about likelihood. I just think Atelier Ryza looks like a nice, cozy game and that it would be fun to dump a bunch of %$#@ into a pot, turn it into some new %$#@, and see how that new %$#@ reacts when I yeet it into the opponent's face. I just think she'd be neat, and that's all there is to it.

2. Sakura Shinguji
Look, third party characters in Smash, by and large, have had some kind of historical merit to them. Some bigger than others, sure, Mr. JRPG has a better claim to fame than Mr. my games were also pretty successful in the 90s even if nobody could afford the Neo Geo. But still, our only big exception is "almost owned by Nintendo" Bayonetta. What's Sakura Wars' impact in the gaming industry? None of the games sold gangbusters, due to few localizations. The games aren't known as milestone titles in their genre, didn't set standards that others would later follow, they aren't on any Best Of lists. I know SharkLord's typing right now that the series has spawned plenty of anime and manga and whatnot, but having a big media franchise in Japan doesn't impress me; we're talking about the guys that spawned some of the biggest anime ever out of glorified Tamagotchi and hentai VNs. Honestly, I can't see myself buying into a franchise's merits when they only exist in Japan; Japan's such a small part of the world and the gaming audience, a game that only appeals to them is, by definition, niche.

...Isn't Japan, y'know, the country with one of the biggest gaming industries in the world, dominated the scene for three generations straight, and I dunno, is where the owner of Smash is located, alongside all but one of the companies responsible for playable third-parties?
I really don't see where this comes from. Japan is responsible for a metric ****ton of iconic video game characters and frannchises. To say that Japan is a small part of the gaming audience, especially for a game developed and published by a Japanese company, is simply incorrect. Also:

What's Sakura Wars' impact in the gaming industry? None of the games sold gangbusters, due to few localizations. The games aren't known as milestone titles in their genre, didn't set standards that others would later follow, they aren't on any Best Of lists.

Japan ****ing adores Sakura Wars. It's one of Sega's juggernauts there. The first game sold out within mere hours of it's release, critics and fans alike shower the games with praise, and it's won multiple awards. It's been called "The greatest series of games that never made it to the Stateside," it won four awards at the Japan Game Awards, Grand Award included, etc. The Sakura Wars games and the franchise as a whole are huge in Japan, and to dismiss the franchise's merits just because it's mainly concentrated in Japan is just plain ignorance. It's just...

(Note that there's a cuss word in there once or twice, because JoJo)

Overrated

Reimu - Honestly, I just don't get it. I've known Touhou is a thing for ages (thanks in large part to MUGEN), but I would have never guessed that it was a franchise with enough reach to source a fan-favorite choice for Smash DLC. I didn't even know the name "Reimu" before Ultimate speculation, and while I don't know the details, I get the impression her reach is in large part due to leaks. Maybe I'm just really out of the loop, but I like to think I have a decent awareness of the larger video game scene, and if I'm this clueless about why a character/franchise would be even considered for Smash, I'm willing to bet it's because they wouldn't be.

To put it bluntly, this comes off as pretty arrogant. "I am epic gamerman; If I don't know this game yet then it doesn't matter!" ...Or maybe we all still have stuff to learn? The gaming scene is so utterly massive you'd have to be something like Wikipedia given human form to understand every major video game series. If you're "that clueless" like you say, perhaps you should, I dunno, do some research and see what all the hubbub is about?
As for the leaks? Perhaps the doujin leak (Which is most likely dead now, from what I can gather) may have introduced Reimu's name to the greater speculation scene, but honestly that kinda goes for 50% of every popular candidate. More than anything, it comes from A: The fact that the Touhou Project is one of the biggest indie game franchises around, if not the biggest, and the fact that in an interview, ZUN officially stated he wanted his creations in Smash. Since it was assumed he would be the greatest obstacle for Reimu in Smash, due to him liking full control over all his projects, a lot of people realized "Hey, this could actually happen!" and started supporting Reimu more vocally. Her popularity is not just because of leaks, and to dismiss it as such is ignoring the vast majority of Reimu's merits.

 

[Mr. MR]

I’m probably going to make some enemies but I think Touhou has a terrible chance because its creator doesn’t hold his IP close to him. The whole draw of Touhou from what I hear is that everything is remixed (music, character, storylines etc.) by fans with the blessing of the creator into what ever they want. This is a death sentence when it comes to large company crossovers. I can’t see Nintendo, who guards their IPs so closely, doing a Touhou crossover with all of their IPs in Smash. I am ignorant when it comes to Touhou so I can change my mind on this but right now I can’t see past that obstacle.

 

[Guynamednelson]

Japan ****ing adores Sakura Wars. It's one of Sega's juggernauts there. The first game sold out within mere hours of it's release, critics and fans alike shower the games with praise, and it's won multiple awards. It's been called "The greatest series of games that never made it to the Stateside," it won four awards at the Japan Game Awards, Grand Award included, etc. The Sakura Wars games and the franchise as a whole are huge in Japan, and to dismiss the franchise's merits just because it's mainly concentrated in Japan is just plain ignorance. It's just...

It's not always ignorance. Even if you disregard international sales, the average Sakura Wars game's sales are notably worse than the average Dragon Quest game's. It's simply able to get the treatment it receives because Japan's culture is less go-big-or-go-home than the West.

 

[Cutie Gwen]

I’m probably going to make some enemies but I think Touhou has a terrible chance because its creator doesn’t hold his IP close to him. The whole draw of Touhou from what I hear is that everything is remixed (music, character, storylines etc.) by fans with the blessing of the creator into what ever they want. This is a death sentence when it comes to large company crossovers. I can’t see Nintendo, who guards their IPs so closely, doing a Touhou crossover with all of their IPs in Smash. I am ignorant when it comes to Touhou so I can change my mind on this but right now I can’t see past that obstacle.

We have Touhou games on the Switch with physical releases. If Nintendo actually cared about that, Touhou would never get on Nintendo platforms to begin with

 

[SharkLord]

I’m probably going to make some enemies but I think Touhou has a terrible chance because its creator doesn’t hold his IP close to him. The whole draw of Touhou from what I hear is that everything is remixed (music, character, storylines etc.) by fans into what ever they want. This is a death sentence when it comes to large company crossovers. I can’t see Nintendo, who guards their IPs so closely, doing a Touhou crossover with all of their IPs in Smash. I am ignorant when it comes to Touhou so I can change my mind on this but right now I can’t see past that obstacle.

I don't see how having a clear path to the rights would loop back around to being a death sentence. Just only use content from the official games; We have 30 of them spread out over the course of 20+ years. It's not like Touhou hasn't taken part in a large company crossover before, anyways. It's officially crossod over with Hello Kitty (The second most profitable brand in the world, mind you), and also this happened:

I hope the Taiko RPG games retain their crossovers for the west cause having Kirby and Marisa Kirisame fight Gore Magala is too cool for words pic.twitter.com/7NsRT55kWX

— Neco-Tan (@TannerOfDaNorth) August 26, 2020

Touhou HAS been in major, OFFICIAL crossovers before, so it's not like it's impossible.

It's not always ignorance. Even if you disregard international sales, the average Sakura Wars game's sales are notably worse than the average Dragon Quest game's. It's simply able to get the treatment it receives because Japan's culture is less go-big-or-go-home than the West.

It's not just sale, though. He asked for cultural impact and Best Of lists, and I gave him multiple instances of critical acclaim and awards. Just because the acclaim is concentrated in Japan doesn't mean the influence doesn't count.

 

[LiveStudioAudience]

I always could see Touhou or Sakura Wars in Smash but more for a base game release where there was much less risk or cost for potential customers in the West because they were bundled in with the rest, just as Ridley and Little Mac were for Japan. Basically you do for the former what Melee did for FE via giving players a chance to check out franchises that were relatively unknown to them.

I guess for DLC its hard for me to imagine selling characters whose fandoms are so geographically lopsided, especially given the lack of official translations for many of them. When the most Japan oriented DLC character in Smash history is from an IP that's had almost every single mainline game released in the US for over three decades, it feels telling of how regionally favored Nintendo/Sakurai are willing to go. Of course that is admittedly from a data set not that big and the rest of the past could very well prove me wrong.

 

[Mr. MR]

We have Touhou games on the Switch with physical releases. If Nintendo actually cared about that, Touhou would never get on Nintendo platforms to begin with

Allowing something on your system and crossing over with it is two different things but as SharkLord has pointed out Touhou did have a crossover with Kirby via Taiko.

I don't see how having a clear path to the rights would loop back around to being a death sentence. Just only use content from the official games; We have 30 of them spread out over the course of 20+ years. It's not like Touhou hasn't taken part in a large company crossover before, anyways. It's officially crossod over with Hello Kitty (The second most profitable brand in the world, mind you), and also this happened:
Touhou HAS been in major, OFFICIAL crossovers before, so it's not like it's impossible.

If we got Touhou music in the game, would Nintendo copyright strike it on YouTube? That’s not the only reason why those two ways of thinking are incompatible. Nintendo does not encourage the same remixing with their characters and I feel like they are opening themselves up if they decide to cross over with Touhou in a big way. I can see Touhou getting a spirit but not a playable character. I’m not a lawyer so I can’t tell you all the small troubles it can bring but I do think that there are more aside from this.

 

[SharkLord]

Allowing something on your system and crossing over with it is two different things but as SharkLord has pointed out Touhou did have a crossover with Kirby via Taiko.

If we got Toulou music in the game, would Nintendo copyright strike it on YouTube? That’s not the only reason why those two ways of thinking are incompatible. Nintendo does not encourage the same remixing with their characters and I feel like they are opening themselves up if they decide to cross over with Touhou in a big way. I can see Touhou getting a spirit but not a playable character. I’m not a lawyer so I can’t tell you all the small troubles it can bring but I do think that there are more aside from this.

I don't think that's how it works. Nintendo wouldn't own the Touhou music beyond maybe the Smash remixes. The original versions are still ZUN's and ZUN is completely fine with people remixing the original versions, so unless Nintendo actually buys out the Touhou IP I think the remixes are fine. It helps that half the time the covers use an entirely different name for the cover (For example, one cover of Pure Furies was titled. Colors of the Moon). As far as I know only the Smash remixes would get the boot, if any at all.

 

[Blankiturayman]

I always could see Touhou or Sakura Wars in Smash but more for a base game release where there was much less risk or cost for potential customers in the West because they were bundled in with the rest, just as Ridley and Little Mac were for Japan. Basically you do for the former what Melee did for FE via giving players a chance to check out franchises that were relatively unknown to them.

I guess for DLC its hard for me to imagine selling characters whose fandoms are so geographically lopsided, especially given the lack of official translations for many of them. When the most Japan oriented DLC character in Smash history is from an IP that's had almost every single mainline game released in the US for over three decades, it feels telling of how regionally favored Nintendo/Sakurai are willing to go. Of course that is admittedly from a data set not that big and the rest of the past could very well prove me wrong.

I'd say this is a non-issue, we already saw with Terry in the last FP that characters don't necessarily have to appeal to every potential person globally. Of course, not to say Terry and in turn SNK are extremely niche, but he's not a huge global-appealing character either. I get your point though, the content could be softened if it was added in base game since then it'd come with the whole package instead of on their own.

 

[SilverSoul24]

Whelp. This should be fun, shouldn't it? I feel like a few of my opinions will be controversial, but someone's gotta be the contrarian sometimes, right?

Overrated:

5. Master Chief

• I think that fans have greatly exaggerated the Chief's chances, especially considering that this character has zero presence on Nintendo consoles historically. That's a hurdle that picks previously considered longshots, like Cloud and Joker, didn't have to overcome. Plus, I really think that Microsoft's situation with making Banjo-Kazooie possible was a one-and-done deal. If we do indeed get another Microsoft rep, Steve is far more likely given Minecraft's constant presence on Nintendo consoles since the Wii U. It's a shame because I think Chief would be a far more interesting fighter in Smash, but I just don't see it happening.

4. Urshifu

• According to the community, this character is the defacto "shill" pick for this pass, and that's really the only factor keeping Urshifu in the conversation. I will concede that Urshifu has some decent moveset potential, especially considering its two forms, but I find it really hard to believe that Nintendo would pick a Pokemon purely to push one half of a SW/SH expansion. Especially since the Isle of Armor is about to become yesterday's news with the Crown Tundra launching soon. I'm actually not expecting any Gen 8 Pokemon in the Fighters Pass for several reasons (the spirit event, Game Freak's weird history with DLC, the mixed reception to Gen 8 in general) but if we do get one, I would put my money on a base game Pokemon like Toxtricity, Dragapult, or one of the starters.

3. Phoenix Wright

• Simply put, I don't think Sakurai would pick Phoenix. The moveset potential just isn't there. Yes, I've played Marvel vs Capcom 3, but comparing that game to Smash is an apples and oranges situation. A moveset for Phoenix was made to work for a more traditional fighting game, but I just can't see it translating to Smash effectively. Would he bring representation to a fan-favorite series with a long history on Nintendo consoles? Absolutely! But would he be fun to play in the context of Smash? I'm not convinced, and I don't think Sakurai is either. There are Capcom reps who would work far better in Smash, and I would put money on Sakurai being aware of this.

2. Lloyd Irving

• Lloyd is popular, undeniably, as is the Tales series. He has a history with Nintendo too, but I really just don't see him being picked over a rep from the more recent Tales games. It seems to me that Lloyd has remained as popular in Smash speculation as he is purely because of his game's debut on the Gamecube, which gave many Nintendo fans their first exposure to the Tales series. That's huge, of course, but it's completely ignoring other factors. If a Tale character is coming to Smash, why would Namco want to push a character from 2003? Especially when a new entry is slated to launch next year that they would absolutely want to promote. And that's assuming they don't want to push another series like Tekken or Soul Calibur. Again, I wouldn't be upset to see Lloyd in Smash. His fans have been extremely devoted, and I sympathize with their frustrations surrounding his Mii costume in Smash 4 (which is conspicuously missing in Ultimate, I admit). I just think his chances have been extremely overblown by his base.

1. Geno

• I'm so conflicted. I'm old enough to remember the pre-Brawl speculation days of 2007, and Geno was one of the elusive four characters that seemed like they would never come to Smash. Since Ridley, K. Rool, and Banjo have made it in, part of me would be elated to see things come full circle with Geno. He's got an extremely devoted fanbase, and I endlessly admire their dedication to never letting the flame die out for Geno. Seriously, the Geno fanbase is among the most wholesome bunch of Smash speculators, and it bugs me when they're referred to as a "cult." But, at the end of the day, those diehard fans are really all Geno has going for him. I've been lurking in the Geno thread for ages, and I'm getting more and more skeptical of the evidence that is supposedly mounting in his favor. I just don't know why Nintendo or Square would want to promote a one-off character from a game that came out in 1996, with barely a few additional cameos to his name. He's also really only an American pick, since his game wasn't nearly as popular in Japan and didn't even release in Europe until the Wii VC. I have a lot of affection for Geno, but objectively, I don't think he's anywhere near as likely as most people think, though I would love to see him just to bring a huge win home for the Smash community, especially the old guard.

Honorable mentions: Waluigi, Heavy, Bandana Waddle Dee, Shantae, Dixie Kong, and a Zelda: BoTW fighter.

Underrated:

5. Monster Hunter

• This series is huge in Japan, and its potential for a Smash rep completely slept on from western Smash speculators. Seriously, Rathalos is already a boss, so getting a fighter makes total sense! Why isn't Monster Hunter talked about more? The only thing going against them is their moveset potential, which I could see Sakurai feeling is too similar to Byleth's. Regardless, they would be a great choice, and I would be elated to see such a major series be represented, even though my personal pick for a Capcom rep is Dante.

4. Isaac

• Frankly, I'm not convinced that Assist Trophy upgrades are possible, but if they are, I think people are completely skipping over Isaac in favor of a certain purple meme man. Golden sun is a dead series, yes, but Isaac has so much potential for a fun and unique moveset. At the end of the day, that is what Sakurai cares most about when designing a character for Smash. There's also rumors of a possible Golden Sun revival that have been circulating for the last year or so, and Nintendo loves their cross-promotion. Isaac's chances are much higher than most people give him credit for, and I would put him as the front runner among Assist Trophies.

3. Quote

• To keep it brief, Cave Story is the grandfather of the indie game phenomenon and has a legacy that is worthy of a spot in Smash. Quote has a ton of moveset potential, and his variety of weapons would fit into Smash incredibly well. Plus, Curly Brace would fit perfectly as an alternate skin or Echo fighter. Cave Story has also been ported to pretty much every device under the sun, and has a long-running history with Nintendo's hardware. For a character with such an important legacy, I can't believe Quote isn't in the discussion more often when indie reps come up. He has a lot more going for him than picks such as Shantae or Hollow Knight, though I admit those titles lend themselves to Smash almost as well.

2. Lara Croft

• I rated Lara pretty highly a few weeks back, so I won't repeat myself too much. Long story short, she's a storied video game icon whose series is wildly financially successful. Tomb Raider helped pave the way for female-led gaming experiences, there's no denying that. Her fame extends to movies as well, and she can appeal to both Japanese and western audiences. She has a wide variety of moves to draw on for her Smash incarnation as well. She has the pedigree and Sakurai-designed fun factor on lock. The biggest thing holding her back is that other Square characters, Geno and Sora especially, tend to overshadow her in the Smash community. To the general audiences that make up most of the wider gaming community, however, Lara would light the world on fire and go a long way in selling the Fighters Pass.

1. KOS-MOS

• Yeah, who didn't see this one coming? I'm just going to say it: Smashboards has a rabid hatred for this character that I will never understand. It really seems like people go out of their way to attack her supposed "nonexistent" chances at every opportunity. If Nintendo wanted to add a Monolithsoft character, and Sakurai asked Tetsuya Takahashi who he would like to see (like he did with Kosuke Yabuki for an ARMS rep), I can almost guarantee he would pick KOS-MOS. She's the OG mascot of that company, and featured prominently in their recent anniversary artwork. Xenosaga is a dead subseries, I'm not denying that for a second, but KOS-MOS herself is the queen of crossovers, several of which have been on Nintendo consoles. Soul Calibur III, Namco x Capcom, Tales of Vesperia, Project X Zone 1 and 2, and Xenoblade Chronicles 2 come to mind. To say that her coming to Smash would be unprecedented is laughable. Funny how a long history of cross-promotion with other media doesn't seem to matter when it's an unpopular character. Oh, and the arguments that she's "irrelevant" and only kept in the conversation by "cultish fan support" along with a few bogus leaks is beyond ironic considering some of the most popular picks in the Smash community. I guess I can sort of understand why she's so hated, since she goes against the "Lloyd or nobody" Namco fans and the "Rex or nobody" Xenoblade fans. For the record, I would be fine with either of those characters. Rex is actually my most-wanted first-party rep! But the lengths Smashboards will go to bury KOS-MOS is almost comical. I'm not saying that KOS-MOS is guaranteed, or even likely, but it really rubs me the wrong way that people have endlessly downplayed her chances purely out of spite. Her chances are far better than what many would have you believe. She has a lot going for her as a dark horse pick, though it's abundantly clear to me that the backlash would be nuts if, by some miracle, she got in. Rant over.

Honorable mentions: Elma, Dr. Eggman, Paper Mario, Professor Layton, Mach Rider, and Neku.

Bonus Tough to Rate Fighter:

Tracer or another Overwatch/Blizzard Character

• This is a weird one. For a time, it seemed like Tracer, or someone from Overwatch, was a lock for the Fighters Pass. But then the whole controversy Blizzard faced with Hong Kong late last year derailed plans with Nintendo, which seemed to kill Tracer's chances. Is it still possible that we could see some representation from them in Smash? I really don't know. There's still a lot of support for her, and it's even possible that Sakurai was working on an Overwatch character at some point in development, so it's not like they are starting from scratch if Nintendo felt the storm had passed in regard to Blizzard's controversy. We could also get someone else entirely from Overwatch, so who knows? Aaronitmar did a great video on the subject of Tracer possibly being a fighter at one point, so please check it out. I just brought it up because this character is in such a weird place that it's tough to say whether she's underrated or overrated.

Noms: Klonoa x10

 

[Hinata]

3. Phoenix Wright

• Simply put, I don't think Sakurai would pick Phoenix. The moveset potential just isn't there. Yes, I've played Marvel vs Capcom 3, but comparing that game to Smash is an apples and oranges situation. A moveset for Phoenix was made to work for a more traditional fighting game, but I just can't see it translating to Smash effectively. Would he bring representation to a fan-favorite series with a long history on Nintendo consoles? Absolutely! But would he be fun to play in the context of Smash? I'm not convinced, and I don't think Sakurai is either. There are Capcom reps who would work far better in Smash, and I would put money on Sakurai being aware of this.

"The moveset potential just isn't there."
-quote from man who has never seen ROB or Wii Fit Trainer or Duck Hunt or Villager or Isabelle

Sakurai's a creative man. If he wants a character in Smash, he will make a bangin' moveset for them, no exceptions. "[character] has no moveset potential" is just another way of saying "I can't personally think of a moveset for them, therefore neither can Sakurai".

Also, how does Marvel vs Capcom not count? What sense does that make? It's literally proof that Phoenix can work in a fighting game, but people just choose to ignore it for the sake of saying there's no potential there. Yes, Marvel vs Capcom is a different game from Smash, but they are both, at their core, still fighting games. If Phoenix worked well in one, he can work well in another.

 

[GoodGrief741]

success! should i edit my noms post or re post em?

Please edit them, makes it easier for me.

Obviously I can't speak for the rest of Ryza's supporters, but I think you're overestimating what I think of her chances. While it is incorrect to say that Atelier has no impact at all-It popularized alchemy in JRPGs, became famous in Japan due to how much the older games stood out from most RPGs of the time, and becoming more popular than ever in recent years, I am well aware that Reisalin "Ryza" Stout from Atelier Ryza: Ever Darkness & the Secret Hideout, the 21st mainline game in Koie-Tecmo's Atelier series ultimately isn't all that likely for Smash.
However, I don't care about likelihood. I just think Atelier Ryza looks like a nice, cozy game and that it would be fun to dump a bunch of %$#@ into a pot, turn it into some new %$#@, and see how that new %$#@ reacts when I yeet it into the opponent's face. I

Yeah, I see nothing wrong with enjoying a game and wanting to discuss it. I don't mean you or people like you when I call her overrated. I mean that a lot of people in speculation regard any blindspot they had, any series they didn't know of before, as a sudden underdog, when sometimes it's really just a small, under the radar series. As someone who actually did know about Atelier before speculation told me I had to, that's just a pretty illogical way to go about it imo. But by all means, enjoy the time when Ryza's in the spotlight. If anything, it might result in a few people playing some nice games.

...Isn't Japan, y'know, the country with one of the biggest gaming industries in the world, dominated the scene for three generations straight, and I dunno, is where the owner of Smash is located, alongside all but one of the companies responsible for playable third-parties?
I really don't see where this comes from. Japan is responsible for a metric ****ton of iconic video game characters and frannchises. To say that Japan is a small part of the gaming audience, especially for a game developed and published by a Japanese company, is simply incorrect. Also:

You're talking about Japan as a producer of videogames, I'm talking about Japan as a consumer of videogames. As of 2018, Japan had an estimated 67.6 million videogame players, out of a modern estimate of around 3 billion worldwide. That's an incredibly small chunk, around 2%. Of course, they're still one of the largest markets in the world, don't get me wrong, but my point is that a game that's only successful, known, or acclaimed in a single market, has a lot of room to grow. That kind of highly specialized appeal, to me, signals nothing more than a local phenomenon, the equivalent of calling a movie a classic because it pulled $800 million from China alone. Especially given that we have tons of distinctly Japanese series finding success and fame around the world, and yeah, just "big in Japan" isn't gonna cut it for me. I'd say the same thing if a game was only known in America, or China, or Russia, or Madagascar.

Japan ****ing adores Sakura Wars. It's one of Sega's juggernauts there. The first game sold out within mere hours of it's release, critics and fans alike shower the games with praise, and it's won multiple awards. It's been called "The greatest series of games that never made it to the Stateside," it won four awards at the Japan Game Awards, Grand Award included, etc. The Sakura Wars games and the franchise as a whole are huge in Japan, and to dismiss the franchise's merits just because it's mainly concentrated in Japan is just plain ignorance.

I don't appreciate being called ignorant, I know what I'm talking about. I just have different standards for what constitutes a classic.

I won't hold a grudge because you dropped a good grief joke and I live for those.

 

[Dr. Yatagarasu]

"big in Japan"

Funnily enough, it seems to be decently popular in South Korea and China (which given the whole Taisho era imperial Japan aesthetic thing I wasn't entirely expecting), although I can find absolutely zero sales data for either - all I really have to go off is this interview https://www.dualshockers.com/sakura-wars-shin-sakura-taisen-interview/ where it's mentioned that the series is decently popular in both - and China received an exclusive smartphone game, which counts for something.

In general, a lot of things that we tend to think of as exclusive to Japan tends to have a relatively large following in both SK and China, which I imagine has to do with cultural similarities.

 

[Lionfranky]

Overrated

5. Crash
I understand why he is likely, but I think he is not lock. People blow his chance out of proportion. While Activision cooperated with Nintendo before, that's not guarantee as they refused to lend Crash and Pyro to PSABR. Why is it that people don't mention licensing fee? Do you think Activision is that generous? People keep talking about FP2 having lower budget. Crash could cost more than Hero.

4. Steve
While he has solid chance, I think it's another case of overblowing. We have Monster Hunters and Resident Evil without playable character. What's stopping Sakurai from going for more central figure like he did with Megaman and Ryu? At the time, Megaman was suffering way badly, yet he still got in. Steve has chance, but he's not lock for MS rep.

3. Doom Slayer
People keep insisting that he still has chance despite that interview. I admit I kinda acted the same way when it came to Frank O'Conor's tweet, but that was long ago. This interview was still fresh when negotiation FP2 pretty much settled. I also dislike 'grandaddy of FPS' argument. Not denying Doom's legacy and influence, but I hate how some supporters downplayed Halo's influence and legacy.

2. Pokemon rep
I don't think Pokemon needs shill/promotion pick to boost. It's already massive. I know Smash and Pokemon are Nintendo's property, but Pokemon doesn't need help. Nintendo would go for their other properties that need actual boost.

1. Geno
While I'm neutral toward him, people are applying Banjo logic too much. Banjo had direct support from Phil Spencer. SE is nowhere close to that. Sure, Sakurai said positively about Geno before, but he said the same to other characters before.

Underrated

5. Dragonborn/Dovahkin
Skyrim got perfect score from Famitsu. It was popular in Japan iirc. It influenced BOTW. There is Zelda content in Skyrim Switch version. He gets overshadowed by Doom Slayer too much. Skyrim's been just as influential as Doom if not more. It's bit shocking how little attention this guy gets.

4. Lara Croft
She is de facto female gaming character. She is the most famous gaming icon. She's fairly recognizeable and popular in Japan. Her games also have degree of influence on action adventure. It's the third most successful franchise under Square Enix. Tomb Raider dwarfs Kingdom Hearts. I'm not saying that makes her more likely. It's just that she's criminally underrated under radar.

3. Sol Badguy
System Arc is a fairly successful developer with DBZF under their belt. I feel Sol Badguy is slept in the same way Terry was.... I guess he is more discussed and speculated than Terry ever was. Still, I feel he is under radar.

2. Layton
Although I have no attachment to his series, I think he gets overshadowed by his counterpart, Phoenix Wright. Level 5 has good relationship with Nintendo, and I can see Nintendo doing promotion for their partner.

1. Agumon
I know people will bring that Digimon is more famous for anime. But Digimon is Bandai Namco's biggest property behind Pacman. Sakurai worked on virtual pet game before, so his passion can move toward to Digimon like he did to Fatar Fury/King of Fighters. Not to mention, Digimon enjoys more world wide appeal than Tales series.


Nom: Neptune from Neptunia x 10

 

[Michael the Spikester]

"The moveset potential just isn't there."
-quote from man who has never seen ROB or Wii Fit Trainer or Duck Hunt or Villager or Isabelle

Sakurai's a creative man. If he wants a character in Smash, he will make a bangin' moveset for them, no exceptions. "[character] has no moveset potential" is just another way of saying "I can't personally think of a moveset for them, therefore neither can Sakurai".

Also, how does Marvel vs Capcom not count? What sense does that make? It's literally proof that Phoenix can work in a fighting game, but people just choose to ignore it for the sake of saying there's no potential there. Yes, Marvel vs Capcom is a different game from Smash, but they are both, at their core, still fighting games. If Phoenix worked well in one, he can work well in another.

Don't also forget

 

[SharkLord]

Please edit them, makes it easier for me.

Yeah, I see nothing wrong with enjoying a game and wanting to discuss it. I don't mean you or people like you when I call her overrated. I mean that a lot of people in speculation regard any blindspot they had, any series they didn't know of before, as a sudden underdog, when sometimes it's really just a small, under the radar series. As someone who actually did know about Atelier before speculation told me I had to, that's just a pretty illogical way to go about it imo. But by all means, enjoy the time when Ryza's in the spotlight. If anything, it might result in a few people playing some nice games.

You're talking about Japan as a producer of videogames, I'm talking about Japan as a consumer of videogames. As of 2018, Japan had an estimated 67.6 million videogame players, out of a modern estimate of around 3 billion worldwide. That's an incredibly small chunk, around 2%. Of course, they're still one of the largest markets in the world, don't get me wrong, but my point is that a game that's only successful, known, or acclaimed in a single market, has a lot of room to grow. That kind of highly specialized appeal, to me, signals nothing more than a local phenomenon, the equivalent of calling a movie a classic because it pulled $800 million from China alone. Especially given that we have tons of distinctly Japanese series finding success and fame around the world, and yeah, just "big in Japan" isn't gonna cut it for me. I'd say the same thing if a game was only known in America, or China, or Russia, or Madagascar.

I don't appreciate being called ignorant, I know what I'm talking about. I just have different standards for what constitutes a classic.

I won't hold a grudge because you dropped a good grief joke and I live for those.

Okay, perhaps I was a bit out of line there. I shouldn't have resorted to such rude and accusatory declarations. For that, I am very sorry and I hope you can forgive me.

Still, I feel that it's a bit dismissive to brush off a series for being popular in only one part of the world, especially seeing as that one part of the world is responsible for most of the content in Smash. We've also had more specific appeal characters before, like for Japan and for the West. could also work for both Japan and Latin America. I just feel like your attitude here is a rather dismissive to the franchise's merits.

Funnily enough, it seems to be decently popular in South Korea and China (which given the whole Taisho era imperial Japan aesthetic thing I wasn't entirely expecting), although I can find absolutely zero sales data for either - all I really have to go off is this interview https://www.dualshockers.com/sakura-wars-shin-sakura-taisen-interview/ where it's mentioned that the series is decently popular in both - and China received an exclusive smartphone game, which counts for something.

In general, a lot of things that we tend to think of as exclusive to Japan tends to have a relatively large following in both SK and China, which I imagine has to do with cultural similarities.

That is pretty surprising. Japan is decidedly not on good terms with it's East Asian neighbors, so something so Japanese-flavored isn't something you'd expect to pick up there, would it? I at least know Raidou's SMT games were banned since he's basically wearing the imperial Japanese military outfit.

 

[Dr. Yatagarasu]

Okay, perhaps I was a bit out of line there. I shouldn't have resorted to such rude and accusatory declarations. For that, I am very sorry and I hope you can forgive me.

Still, I feel that it's a bit dismissive to brush off a series for being popular in only one part of the world, especially seeing as that one part of the world is responsible for most of the content in Smash. We've also had more specific appeal characters before, like for Japan and for the West. could also work for both Japan and Latin America. I just feel like your attitude here is a rather dismissive to the franchise's merits.

That is pretty surprising. Japan is decidedly not on good terms with it's East Asian neighbors, so something so Japanese-flavored isn't something you'd expect to pick up there, would it? I at least know Raidou's SMT games were banned since he's basically wearing the imperial Japanese military outfit.

There is a loot of entertainment that has a shared popularity in Japan, South Korea and China, though figuring out exactly what is popular without being able to read those languages is an exercise in futility.

 

[fogbadge]

Please edit them, makes it easier for me.

done, they no go towards chibi

 

[GoodGrief741]

Still, I feel that it's a bit dismissive to brush off a series for being popular in only one part of the world, especially seeing as that one part of the world is responsible for most of the content in Smash. We've also had more specific appeal characters before, like for Japan and for the West. could also work for both Japan and Latin America. I just feel like your attitude here is a rather dismissive to the franchise's merits.

The key difference is that all those series have worldwide appeal, even if it's lopsided. Well, except for Fire Emblem initially, but we all know how that turned out. I'm not opposed to a decision that only makes sense in hindsight, so if Sakura were to get in, and that led to her games getting a wider audience, then cool. But as things are right now I struggle to see merit.

 

[Xenigma]

To put it bluntly, this comes off as pretty arrogant. "I am epic gamerman; If I don't know this game yet then it doesn't matter!" ...Or maybe we all still have stuff to learn? The gaming scene is so utterly massive you'd have to be something like Wikipedia given human form to understand every major video game series. If you're "that clueless" like you say, perhaps you should, I dunno, do some research and see what all the hubbub is about?
As for the leaks? Perhaps the doujin leak (Which is most likely dead now, from what I can gather) may have introduced Reimu's name to the greater speculation scene, but honestly that kinda goes for 50% of every popular candidate. More than anything, it comes from A: The fact that the Touhou Project is one of the biggest indie game franchises around, if not the biggest, and the fact that in an interview, ZUN officially stated he wanted his creations in Smash. Since it was assumed he would be the greatest obstacle for Reimu in Smash, due to him liking full control over all his projects, a lot of people realized "Hey, this could actually happen!" and started supporting Reimu more vocally. Her popularity is not just because of leaks, and to dismiss it as such is ignoring the vast majority of Reimu's merits.

Call it arrogant, but I'm going to call a spade a spade. I'm not going to pretend I know a lot about Touhou or Reimu, but I did do my research once she came onto the Smash speculation scene, and nothing I saw then or since has convinced she's a legitimate contender for DLC. This isn't say there's anything wrong with Reimu (I have no doubt she'd be a very cool character), nor is it a criticism of Touhou or its fandom. I'm purely thinking through the lens of "Why would this be considered for Smash?", and while I've seen plenty of justification of why Reimu/Touhou could be in Smash, I don't feel like I've seen a good explanation as to why Nintendo and Sakurai would actually have considered them as an option. The first post of the support thread, to its credit, notes that Reimu could represent Japanese indie games and sub-genres like doujin and shmups, but I guess I don't understand why that would be a niche Smash would feel compelled to cater to. If you know of a good post on the matter I'd be curious to learn more.

If it helps, Reimu to me feels like another Chorus Kids situation. A credible Smash leak includes a character that hadn't really be considered before. Like most leaks, it is eventually disproven or falls into obscurity, but the idea is interesting enough that the community runs with it. Unfortunately, due to the leak being well into the development cycle of that Smash, the idea never really has a shot of reaching Sakurai and crew in time for it to be implemented, assuming they're even interested. A quick review of Reimu leaks (I see a credible music leak and a very fake CSS screen) suggests they came fairly late into FP1, after the characters for FP2 would have presumably been chosen. If that's accurate, then any ensuing spike in popularity would be too late to matter, even if the idea itself is worth considering. I could be wrong, of course (I don't know if that music leak has actually been disproven, in particular), but until there's more evidence Reimu/Touhou could have been on the table, I'm going to remain skeptical.

EDIT: Also, if she's been a significant player in Smash polls before mid-late 2019 and I just never noticed, please do correct me. I may feel confident in my opinion now, but if I'm missing important information that suggests otherwise, I don't mind being proven wrong!

 

[Droodle]

Since this is a pretty controversial topic, of course I'd like to chime in. Now in general I think the overrated category has a better shot compared to the underrated category, I just think that the issue is people overrate them too much.

Overrated
5. Lloyd Irving
Don't get me wrong, I get why people think Lloyd is likely; and I myself think in general that he's pretty likely, but I do lose confidence in him when I think about it from a "logical" standpoint. Tales of is definitely big, and arguably the biggest JRPG series missing from Smash aside from the likes of Kingdom Hearts; but at this point the competition is too high among different series, and on top of that Lloyd also faces potential competition from within his own series. I can't really see Nintendo prioritizing a 3rd party character, that isn't really popular among the current gaming audience, isn't super popular in his own series fanbase, isn't pushed heavily by Namco, and doesn't really even have his own game(s) available on the Switch. Yes he does have a moderately sized Smash fanbase, but in the end it's still smaller that a couple of other characters. This isn't me trying to push Yuri Lowell either, because I think Yuri is still slightly more unlikely than Lloyd anyways. I just think Lloyd is pretty overrated in terms of chances, and I think after the Heihachi costume, there's a good shot we will not get any Bamco characters.

4. Rex & Pyra/Mythra
Again, same as above. I think Rex and Pyra have a good shot; and I'd even say they're one of the most likely characters for this pass. We've probably all heard about the points going for/against them; but I put them on there, because a lot of people consider them practically "locks" when I don't really think that's the case. Great shot? Certainly. Absolute shoe-ins? I don't really think so.

3. Travis Touchdown
Now unlike all the other characters on this "overrated" list, I think Travis is probably the most overrated as opposed to how likely he actually is. To me, the biggest reason he is even considered is because more NMH is coming to the Switch, but other than that he really doesn't have anything to his name. People will say that Suda has a good relationship with Nintendo and Sakurai as major points in his favor, but don't forget that having good relations with Nintendo hasn't really done any good for Koei or Namco in terms of Smash DLC (yet). And Travis is pretty niche in the West, and somehow even more niche in Japan. I can definitely see him getting a costume and/or spirits, but I don't really think there's a good shot of him ending up as a fighter.

2. Gen VIII Pokemon
Now it's back to popular guesses, that I think have a pretty good shot. On paper, Gen VIII Pokemon makes a lot of sense; regardless of your opinions, Pokemon is still a massive series that many people like. But looking back at Fighters Pass 1, makes it clear that they're not in a rush to represent Pokemon at every opportunity. I mean it ended up getting spirited, and while that is fan rule; who knows, Pokemon has always been an exception in terms of Smash. However, they had the opportunity to crossover with Gen VIII instead of Byleth, and they chose Byleth; which leads me to believe that they may not be in a huge rush to represent Pokemon via fighters.

1. Crash Bandicoot
Now, I get why people consider Crash likely, "he just makes sense". But a ton of people think he is by far the most likely character to be a part of FP2, and I really don't know why? I mean even here, Crash is voted as the most likely newcomer in FP 2 beating out even Rex and Pyra; and unless there is a leak hinting at Crash that I didn't know about, I don't really see why people think he has such a great shot. Yes, Crash 4 is going to come to the Switch next year; but like it has been said many times, new games don't really mean a character is coming to Smash. Aside from that, the fact that Crash is owned by Activision, isn't a super popular series in Japan anymore (although the character does do well in Smash polls), and is Western are enough to lower his chances moderately, for me. Though I still do think Crash is pretty likely, I just don't know why so many people think he's the most likely character for pass 2.

Underrated
5. Tifa/Sephiroth/Aerith
People usually ignore the possibility of a second unique 3rd part character from an already represented series (let alone game), but I do think another FF7/FF7R character has a solid enough shot to be considered. Let's be honest, whether you liked it or not, FF7R will probably be Square's biggest undertaking through the next generation; and Cloud is already in the game, meaning that getting another character likely wouldn't be too bad (I dunno about music/spirit negotiations, but if they could negotiate with the DQ composer; then they could definitely get a solid amount of tracks this time around). And pretty much every major character in FF7 is a gaming icon, in one way or another. I know Sephiroth does do pretty well in a lot of Japanese Smash places (from what I've seen), but personally I think Tifa would be the best pick due to Sephiroth's sword being pretty annoying to balance while also staying faithful to Sephiroth as a character.

4. Lora and Jin/Haze
Yeah, I'm gonna say it; I think Lora and Jin from XC 2: Torna actually have a much better shot then most people give them (though it's understandable why people don't think they're likely). Sure they're from DLC, but Nintendo sure did treat it as a major game release, as it was shown off back in E3 2018 (being the second announcement even, after Daemon X Machina), and on top of that it even had a standalone physical release back in September 2018 (along with the digital release), and according to Takahashi; even that surpassed their expectations. The Torna characters have gotten 0 spirits added in Smash, 0 costumes, and 0 tracks; even the ones that were present in the original XC 2. And we know from Octopath Traveler, that Nintendo/Sakurai have 0 problems putting in Spirits from games released before Smash Ultimate. For Octopath, it was to celebrate it's second anniversary; and Torna's 2nd anniversary is in a week so THIS MONTH would be the time to put in additional spirits, if they're not going to give Xenoblade 2 anything else.

3. A Falcom Character (Adol Christin/Estelle Bright/Rean Schwarzer)
The main falcom series (Ys and TLOH) are slowly seeing their release on the Switch thanks to NISA. On top of that the series is getting a little bit more popular outside of the East, although they are definitely still very niche. In Japan they have a pretty solid following, and have retained that for 10 years, on top of that Falcom definitely have a huge "legacy" aspect akin to something like SNK, as their earliest works popularized a lot of the mechanics we see in the industry, and both Ys and TLOH have a 30+ year history at this point. On top of all this, it also helps that Nintendo is trying to break into the Chinese market, and from what I've heard, the TLOH: Trails series is pretty popular over there.

2. Saber
I know what people will say, "Saber is from a porn game, Nintendo will not allow her" or "Visual Novels aren't games". But I disagree with that, Nintendo is willing to let NSFW artists work on Fire Emblem or Xenoblade, I don't really think they would care if one of the characters they feature in Smash has official porn from 15 years ago. On top of that, there's a dozen companies that have crossed over with Fate before (companies that have not really crossed over with any NSFW products). I guess a potential issue would be that Fate's anime is a lot more well known in the West, but I personally think the origin of a character matters more than anything else; but in Japan it's pretty well known that Fate started as a visual novel game either way. I wouldn't even want Saber all that much and in my opinion someone like Archer has a far better moveset for Smash, but regardless Saber is the face of the franchise and the company. There's no denying that if Saber got in; she would print piles of money from just Japan alone.

1. Monster Hunter
I know the general likelihood of another Capcom character tends to be high for most people, but the discussion tends to be dominated by Dante and sometimes Phoenix, with Monster Hunter being considered less likely compared to them. But I personally think Monster Hunter has the best shot out of any Capcom character. There's no denying that after World, that MH is Capcom's most popular series now. On top of that, there are some rumors by credible insiders that MH Switch will be revealed soon (likely at TGS). And it has good Nintendo history since the Wii days. On top of all that, MH is kind of like DQ in the way that it's super popular in Japan to this day. I guess the potential problem is that MH is has some representation in Smash already, unlike Dante or Phoenix, but hey, it's not like it can't get more representation.

Schrodinger's Chance (Bonus)
Geno
To be honest, I hate talking about Geno because it's such a toxic discussion all the time, and I'm a Geno supporter. If you want to talk about him honestly in the Geno thread, you better be prepared to deal with a bunch of people who think that Geno is 99% confirmed as a fighter and that they're persecuted by the rest of the Smash fanbase, because (repeat 2 year old argument), and then continue to bring up the music takedowns, the missing mii costume, the brawl mod takedown (which happened to feature Geno), Cacomallow, the SMRPG remake rumors, SMRPG missing from SNES Online, and the fact that Imran/Jeff both hinted at him in July (despite Imran's style of leaking being far different than just stating "Geno in Smash would be a dream". On the other hand if you try to discuss about Geno anywhere else, a large sum of the responses just say "Geno is an irrelevant puppet, and a meme. He is never getting in".

Unironically both sides end up being super annoying to deal with for long periods of time, and nothing else really needs to be said about it. I personally think Geno has a solid shot and he's either 50% a fighter, or 50% a deluxe mii costume. To me, the best case scenario is if Geno is confirmed/disconfirmed by the next presentation, so people can get over it.

 

[Calamitas]

I was debating with myself whether I'd actually participate on this particular day, but I figured that I might as well give it a shot.

Overrated Characters:

#5: KOS-MOS. Most of her support seems to stem from the fact that she appears in a couple of crossovers involving Bandai Namco. . . and that's about it? I just really don't see KOS-MOS making it in Smash when Bamco have several other inarguably bigger characters they could add. And of course, that's not even getting into the issue of whether or Bamco is even going to get another character. With Heihachi's Mii costume already having returned, I'd say they don't.

#4: Rex. With him in particular, I'm really feeling that people have massively inflated their expectations. No, Sakurai never said that he was intended for base roster. He also never said that this character would've made it for base roster if it hadn't been for timing. All Sakurai ever said was that his game came far too late to even be considered. And sure, having demand is one thing, but it's clearly not everything that a character needs to make it in - just ask Dixie Kong, Waluigi, or Bandana Waddle Dee. He is by no means a shoo-in.

#3: Generation 8 Pokémon. Sure, we have official word from Sakurai that Pokémon always have a spot reserved for them. . . but that's for base roster. As far as Smash DLC goes, this is another story entirely. Mewtwo was brought back because it was a cut veteran that people missed quite a bit. Beyond that however, not a single Pokémon has made it in for DLC, despite Sceptile's five minutes of demand during the ballot. Considering that Sword and Shield have already received a spirit event, which Fire Emblem Three Houses notably lacked, I don't really see one making it in. Urshifu in particular I think is a pretty forced choice, considering that (unless I'm mistaken) not a single first-party character that was only introduced in the DLC of their home game was acknowledged by Smash.

#2: Master Chief. This one's easily summed up. FPS are a very niche genre in Japan, and Western character have an inherently hard time making it in, I feel.

#1: Geno. And here's the big one! With how his fans talk about the character, you'd think that Geno is a damn near guarantee, and that it's a miracle that he hasn't happened yet. But the fact of the matter is that at the end of the day, he's a one-off character from an obscure and largely forgotten Mario spin-off, and would have little mainstream appeal. Sure, the Geno fans would be ridicilously overjoyed at him finally making it in, but they are a small subset of a very specific group of Smash fans. With how DLC for Ultimate has gone thus far, I just really doubt that they'd go for him.

Underrated characters

#5: Phoenix Wright. Dante's probably the most brought up Capcom character, but I feel like Phoenix also has a pretty great shot. His long history with Nintendo, and the fact that he's from an entirely unrepresented genre of video games for Smash certainly helps, as foes the fact that UMvC3 has already shown that he can work in a fighting game. A platform fighter should be no problem, then.

#4: Isaac. He's basically carrying the mantle of the long-standing fan request that could happen now or never since Ridley, K. Rool and Banjo are in now. It's pretty clear that being an Assist Trophy is no obstacle, so I could realistically see him happening even if I'd prefer Felix.

#3: A BotW character. I'll admit, this one's mostly here because of the recent announcement of Age of Calamity. But it shouldn't come as a surprise - Breath of the Wild is the most successful Zelda game in a very long time (if not the most successful? Not sure right now), it massively helped with the Switch's launch, is receiving a sequel, and as we now know, a prequel as well. And since I'm pretty sure that Sakurai and his team must be aware of people dissatisfaction with the Zelda series not having had a proper newcomer in a very long time, I could easily see it happening. The question of who and in what form is admittedly quite the issue, but not one that can't be overcome, I'd say.

#2: Amaterasu. I'll concede that she probably one of the less likely Capcom character as potential DLC. But since Okami's initial release, the game has only grown in popularity and success, with Capcom porting it to pretty much every modern console (except for the Wii U) since the last console generation. Plus, she's a decently popular Smash request, from what I've seen.

#1: Elma. Yeah, that probably should've been obvious, coming from me. I'll just keep this point short. X has been snubbed far more in terms of Smash representation than 2 has, has far more "room" for new Xenoblade content it could bring to the table, and would bring in a wildly different side of Xenoblade as a series, and one that has yet to really be represented. Considering that Monolith Soft want to grow that brand, it would be the best choice to have her.

THESE CHARACTERS ARE LOCKED DOWN, NOMINATIONS FOR THEM ARE OBSOLETE

Day 501: Concept: A non-videogame character gets a Mii Costume
Day 502: Concept: A non-white/Asian human character
Day 503: Tidus (Final Fantasy)
Day 504: Nate Adams (Yo-kai Watch)
Day 505: Ezio (Assassin's Creed)
Day 506: Shuichi Saihara (Danganronpa)
Day 507: Concept: Shin Megami Tensei rep

. . .And there we are. I honestly hoped that by the time the fixed schedule ended and the "A non white/Asian human character" concept makes it onto the schedule FP7 would be revealed, but clearly that's not the case. In that case, I'll just use today's nominations and also blow all of my bonus nominations on:

Concept: Any Bravely Default character x35.

And, uh, since I suppose we're doing predictions for Day 501 already? I'll say for A non-videogame character gets a Mii Costume that it'll probably get around 8.63%.

 

[fogbadge]

i am never going to understand the lack of content = better chance logic

 

[Lyncario]

Well, I finaly have access to my computer again, so it's time for me to start my write up on underrated and ovverrated characters in Smash speculation.

Underratted characters:

5 - Shirou Emiya (Fate/Stay Night)
Starting with the protagonist of Fate/Stay Night who, for some reason, is at least almost never brought up in Smash disscussion for some reason, which is just weird. Shirou's case is not the same as some other protagonist who are just not githers at all, or who aren't popular, to the contrary, Shirou is popular in the Fate fanbase, he's even one of the most praised character in term of being well written, and he can fight as evidenced by the UBW route. In fact, talking about it, I'm pretty sure that the Unlimited Blade Works route is the most popular route with the most popular anime adaptation, and the route is about Shirou, while Saber is pretty much relegated to being more of a side character, and that's better than what she got in Heaven's Feel, the one who got the most recent adaptation in movies (with the latest of said Heaven's Feel movies having came out recently). The main argument is that Artoria would be chosen over Shirou because she is the mascot, but eh, th only thing she really has is how it's her on the icon of FGO, while Shirou and his alternate selves is the focus of many things beyond the original visual novel, including the Oath Under Snow movie (which, by the way, is an amazing movie that I greatly reccomand you to watch if the Fate series interest you). I however don't think that a Fate will happen for Ultimate, but I think that it's just dumb that when it's disscussed it's always Artoria/Saber (also, jsut saying, but having multiple Saber class servants like Hero would not work at all).

4 - Reimu Hakurei (Touhou Project)
This may come from my bias as she is my most wanted, but I feel like Reimu is underratted by most, aminly due to how many people judge her as having no chances. Though I will also admit that some also overate her, but it's an extreme minority that does that. Reimu has good things going for her, between legacy, popularity in Japan and China that is already very high but also rising, with examples including how a artist that does Touhou fanarts was employed by a restaurant in Japan to make Touhou paintings for the restaurant which is just ridiculous, or how Sanrio, the company that owns Hello Kitty, the second hightest grossing media series in the world behind only Pokemon, made a collaboration with Touhou so that they could target the younger audience Touhou reaches. The owners of the second hightest grossing media franchise in the world said that Touhou was reaching the younger audience, their target audience, better than they do, in the country where Hello Kitty is the most popular. Just let that sink in for a moment. Besides that, there was this Chinese convention where the Overwatch stand was very empty while the Touhou stand right next to it was so full they had to make pepole get out of there because it was becoming dangerous. And also, some things that go in Reimu's favor for Smash is how Nintendo showed interest in Touhou multiple times, from distributing remixes at Reitaisai 13 in 2016, Reimu dancing with Kirby in Taiko Drum Drum on the 3DS, or how it was known recently that if ZUN ported one of his game to the Switch then Nintendo would support Touhou in "various ways" some days before it was anounced that AoCF would get ported to the Switch eventualy.

3 - Jibanyan (Yo-kai Watch)
Ah, yes, the most optimal possible character to represent Level-5 in Smash, a cat that got run over by a truck and who now tries to have his revenge by the allmighty power of Jojo references. Jokes asides, I may think of Jibanyan as not as likely as Layton, but I think that their level of likeliness is very similar and almost equal, but Jibanyan is so much less seen in speculation most of the time. While I think that Layton has a slight advantage thanks to having a bigger legacy, Yo-Kai Watch was uber popular back when it started, and it then became even more popular with the anime. There's also no reason to believe the rumor that The Pokemon Compnay or the creator of Yo-kai Watch are against Pikachu and Jibanyan being in the same game, since there's 0 things that xist online to back it up. Jibanyan also has the advantage of how Yo-Kai Watch games were Nintendo exclusives for most of it's life, only going multiplatform recently in 2019, and the Yo-Kai Watch games sold very well while also not being detrimental to Pokemon's sales unlike what some though. Because if you did not remember, Yo-Kai Watch was called the Pokemon killer back when it came out, which is a statement that aged horribly well if I say so. And even if Yo-Kai Watch's popularity fell off big time, it's still popular, especialy in Japan, where Smash is made. So yeah, I will say that Jibanyan is a very underrated character for Smash, and he even has good chances, just like Layton.

2 - Lara Croft (Tomb Raider)
If there is any way to describe Lara Croft in a single sentence, it would "legendary video game heroine". She pretty much has iconic written all over her, and it was this way ever since her debut on Playstation. And while she is more associated to Sony and Playstation due to the sucess of her original trilogy on PS1 and reboot in 2013, she still has many games on Nintendo. Furthermore, while she is a western created character, she is owned by Square Enix, and Tomb Raider is their third bigest franchise behind FInal Fantasy and Dragon Quest, the 2 they currently have represented in Smash with fighters. There's also the fact that while she's more popular in the west, especialy in Europe, it still has a follownig in Japan, making Lara closer to K.Rool who had big popularity worldwide even if mainly from the west, rather than Ridley who's popularity came from almost only the west, and only very little from Japan. There's also how Tomb Raider is getting more stuff as of lately, and there's potentialy a legacy collection coming out soon in top of a new Tomb Raider movie being in the works, even if that likely has no bearing on Smash, but anyway it's more that Lara is still extremly relevant, popular, and important to gaming's history. In my opinion, Lara is the Square Enix character with currently the best chances to join Smash, over Sora, Geno, Agnès/Tiz, Neku, and another FF or DQ rep.

1 - Adol Christin (YS)
I will say it now, I am not very knowledgeable about the Ys series even if it interest me, or even Falcmo in general. However, what I do know it's that it's an old and very influencial arpg series, whol while not as important as Dragon Quest, Megami Tensei, or Final Fantasy, is still extremly important to gaming history, especialy in Japan. So in my opinion, it would make perfect sense if the protagonist of Ys would join Smash. And while there's also a possiblity of Trials of the Skies/Legend of Heroes getting in instead, I just see Adol Christin as way more likely than Estelle Bright. So yeah, if Adol joined in Fighter Pass 2, I wouldn't be surprised at all, due to his importance to arpgs, legacy, and history with Nintendo since many Ys games are on Nintendo systems, including a very recent port of Ys IX to the Switch. And this is kinda all what I have to say about Adol, since unlike the 4 other characters I talked about, I'm very unfamiliar with his series. But yeah, I see him as the third most likely character for the secnod fighter pass.

Overratted characters:

5 - Lloyd Irving (Tales Of Symphonia)
Lloyd is often though as the most likely character for Smash to represent an old japanese arpg series, but eh, I just don't see it, for multiple reasons. One of them is that Lloyd just doesn't feel like he would represent Tales Of as a series for me, but just Symphonia, and he would be more for those that grew up with him and his games than the Tales Of fanbase. I don't have anything against him, but I just feel like that for the longest time people only, or at least mostly though of only him to represent Tales Of, despite the fact that Yuri anf his game are far more popular in the Tales Of fanbase, meaning that they wuold be a better choice for a fan favorite of the Tales Of fanbase, or even the protaognist from Tales Of Arise since it would then be more similar to Joker's case. I just always felt that Lloyd's chances were extremly overhyped, especialy since the one new Bandai Namco rep that I though would happen wuold have been Heihachi, but as we all know, he got Mii'ed. SO yeah, I don't really thin kthat he wuold be the new Bandai Namco rep coming for Smash, or even for that matter Tales Of rep. The only thing he has for him is that Sakurai said that he would pick Lloyd for a Tales Of rep, but as we all know, Nintendo is picking the dlc, even if Sakurai seemingly still has a relatively good freedom for who to pick, though he could also take Bandai Namco's request over his own feelings.

4 - Rayman (Rayman)
I gotta say it, this one hurts since he is one of my most wanted, but yeah. Rayman does have things going for him of course, like how spirits are now back on the table thanks to Min Min, and how Ubisoft would fully agree to let Nintendo and Sakurai use Rayman in Smash. There's also how Rayman's Legend was published by Niteno for the Wii U and Switch version in Japan. But sadly, this last one also show one of his big problem: he's not popular in Japan, not at all. His games sell horibly, and he's just not liked at all by players there. It's not even something like Master Chief where he at least has some sales and is recognisable thanks to the Halo anime (yes, there was an Halo anime). I want to be positive about Rayman since he's one of my most wanted, but the more time passes after Min Min's reveal, the less likely he seems to me. And yeah, RIdley got in almost exclusively thanks to western fan demand, he's also first party while Rayman is third party. And there's also the recent stuff that hapened with Ubisoft where all I can say is that it saddens me a lot coming from a company that was the company where I kinda dreamed to work. And also, of cuorse, there was no Rayman games since Legends, only ports, and it almost as if Ubisoft doesn't care about him anymore. So yeah, this pretty much comes from my pessimism.

3 - Waluigi
All I want to say about him is "hurgh", but that's against the rules so I'll do what my teachers during middle school told me to do and I'll develop. So, first of all, assist tropy. I have no idea why would an AT be made playable when there was a bunch of oportunities for them to be made playable? Like, if characters being ATs did not matter then why did the Little Mac AT dissapear in Smash 4 when he became playable and why din't the Isabelle and Dark Samus ATs stay in Ultimate? In Min Min's presentation, Sakurai only brought up Springman when saying that everyone was the protagonist in Arms, he did not even mention if he even considered him for a split second. The one thing that I'll give Waluigi is his big mainstream popularity, but otherwise, eh. And honestly I don't see the point of him being promoted to playable. Like, sre, his fanbase had such a big outcry, but the outcry tells more about the one that did the outcry. Waluigi isn't really important in any Mario games, the most he got was being the first boss in Mario DDR and more recently being a good of Thanos Luigi in Mario Tennis Aces. I just don't see the point of Waluigi joining as dlc, or why would NIntendo choose him as dlc rather than just telling Sakurai or the next Smash director to put him in base game for Smash 6. Also the idea of the Maro themed Smash tournament hapening later because a Mar ocharacter will be dlc is ridiculous, and the idea that they did not show Waluigi/Geno getting in Smash in the Mario anniversary direct because it would overshadow 3 of Mario's best games getting a Switch port is also ridiculous at best (I'm putting that here because it also applies to the next character I'll talk about...).

2 - Geno
And before starting my reasoning as to why Geno is overrated in my opinion, I'll just say that him and Waluigi could easily be interchanged. Now that I said this, most of the "proofs" for Geno aren't really proofs. The one thing he has is that spirits are now back on table, but beyond that, eh. Sure, his mii costume has yet to come back, but so did Heihachi's mii costume and well, we all know how that one turned out, don't we? So yeah, no past miis are safe. Another thing he has against him is that Sakurai got the rights to him for base game considering his spirit is in base game, yet Geno himsef is not a fighter, which to me means prety bad things for him. But hey, Nintendo is choosing the dlc and not Sakura, so they could choose the Mario character that apeared in a single game as a main character + a cameo in another game while even SE, the owners of Geno, don't use him in Mario games they developed after SMRPG like Mario Hoops 3 on 3 or something like that, it was the game where Mario did voley ball with Black Mage I think. And the insiders "hinting" at him are a reach at best, like I can get why you would think that insiders hinting at a character couldmean somehting, but there's also timing that has to be taken into account, and well, it was like in the begining of July, and another recent example was how an insider honted at HW:AoC, but it was done a single day before it was anounced, so yeah there's a problem of timing with that. And many of them clarified how they were joking around afterwards too. Also still clinging on Cacomallow is just desperation, it's been like a year if not more at this point. You can always bring out "but RIdley, K.Rool, and Banjo", but you see, there are differences between them, just because they were seen as impossible for a lot of time and that they got in doesn't mean that Geno will also get in, especialy when the request for Geno is not nearly as big as the fandeman any of them had, or for example Palutena and Mewtwo in 4. And the fan request that Sora has is equal if not greater, while characters like 2B aren't that far behind in term of fan request. I just don't see Geno as likely at all.

1 - Gen 8 Pokemon
This one is easy, Sword and Shield got a spirit event back in November, when the second fighter pass was already decided. If a Gen 8 Pokemon would have been added to it, there wuoldn't have been an even for them. And yet, a very big part of the fanbase has acepted that we will get a Galar mon just because of Byleth. Which is just fearmongering, especialy the part where they say that it would be Urshifu to shill the dlc, but I just don't buy it. Really I have nothing else to say, like why would a Gen 8 spirit event happen on the month the secnod fighter pass was finalized if one of them was going to appear in? In fact, I would say that it very much shows that they're not going to happen, as not onlythat would be pointless, but also Sakurai has already pulled the "the spirit events happens months afte rthe game release" with Astral Chain and Paper Mario The Origami King. It's just fearmongering, really. Besides, the notion that Pokemon, the hightest grossing media franchise in the world, needs shilling is ridiculous in itself.


Predictions: A non-video game character gets in as a mii costume: 2.1%

Nominations: Cynthia x10

Also, in celebrations of SMT rep getting ahead of Moogle at the last second...

I AM THE LORD AND SAVIOUR

I HAVE YOUR BACK TO THE WALL

STRIKE WITHOUT GRACE

DRINK OF THE WINE OF THE WRATH OF GOD

ONE MORE GOD REJECTED!

 

[PLANTMAN]

i am never going to understand the lack of content = better chance logic

Same here

 

[SharkLord]

4 - Reimu Hakurei (Touhou Project)
This may come from my bias as she is my most wanted, but I feel like Reimu is underratted by most, aminly due to how many people judge her as having no chances. Though I will also admit that some also overate her, but it's an extreme minority that does that. Reimu has good things going for her, between legacy, popularity in Japan and China that is already very high but also rising, with examples including how a artist that does Touhou fanarts was employed by a restaurant in Japan to make Touhou paintings for the restaurant which is just ridiculous, or how Sanrio, the company that owns Hello Kitty, the second hightest grossing media series in the world behind only Pokemon, made a collaboration with Touhou so that they could target the younger audience Touhou reaches. The owners of the second hightest grossing media franchise in the world said that Touhou was reaching the younger audience, their target audience, better than they do, in the country where Hello Kitty is the most popular. Just let that sink in for a moment. Besides that, there was this Chinese convention where the Overwatch stand was very empty while the Touhou stand right next to it was so full they had to make pepole get out of there because it was becoming dangerous. And also, some things that go in Reimu's favor for Smash is how Nintendo showed interest in Touhou multiple times, from distributing remixes at Reitaisai 13 in 2016, Reimu dancing with Kirby in Taiko Drum Drum on the 3DS, or how it was known recently that if ZUN ported one of his game to the Switch then Nintendo would support Touhou in "various ways" some days before it was anounced that AoCF would get ported to the Switch eventualy.

Actually, this is new to me. Do you have a link to it that I could see? I gotta see this for myself.

 

[RileyXY1]

I'm going to do mine separately. But first, I'm going to start with the overrated ones:

#5: Isaac
Sure, he's popular, but that will only go so far. The Golden Sun IP has been dormant for years. Sure, there's been recent trademark renewals, but let's just see if that goes anywhere. If not, then I consider Isaac's chances dead.

#4: Gen 8 Pokemon
Another bandwagon choice, and a possible choice for a so called, "shillpick". We already had the Spirit Event. Most of the Pokemon are fine, but there's one in particular who is overblown by the fandom.

#3: Rillaboom
Despite me already covering Gen 8 Pokemon, Rillaboom gets its own section, for obvious reasons. A lot of people are obsessed with seeing this Pokemon in Smash, solely because of its type. Sakurai has never cared about type representation in Smash, and Smash does not need a grass starter.

#2: Porky Minch
With Spirited characters now back on the table thanks to Min Min, his Spirit being absent is less glaring. Combined with Earthbound being niche and Mother 3 not even being localized, his chances are unlikely bordering on impossible.

And this one I might get some hate for, but here he is:

#1: Geno
No character is more overrated in this fandom ever than Geno. I don't know how or why he is as popular as he is, but that's it. His popularity with the Smash fandom is the only thing going for him. He is a one-off side character from an over 25 year old SNES RPG that never got a sequel or remake and wasn't even released in Europe until the Wii VC. Square Enix also has plenty of other characters that they can and will likely choose from over Geno. At best he could get his Mii Fighter costume back from 4.

I'll have the underrated characters up shortly.

 

[Lyncario]

Actually, this is new to me. Do you have a link to it that I could see? I gotta see this for myself.

#東方繪画展
新コロ対策のビニール越しに見る展示。 pic.twitter.com/5jdFTZbKaT

— 三澤 寛志　ミサミサ先生 (@misawazarigani) August 8, 2020

フィナーレ井上先生、展示中 #東方繪画展 pic.twitter.com/lmwgUFjMgb

— 三澤 寛志　ミサミサ先生 (@misawazarigani) August 18, 2020

My reaction to this being a thing did not change from the moment I saw it: Japan is wack and I love for being like this.

 

[fogbadge]

I'll do what my teachers during middle school told me to do and I'll develop

middle school sounds weird

 

[Lyncario]

middle school sounds weird

At least you're not French, or middle school would be called college in your native language, resulting in you being deeply confused when you learn about the school system in England and the US.

 

[fogbadge]

At least you're not French, or middle school would be called college in your native language, resulting in you being deeply confused when you learn about the school system in England and the US.

from scotland we have a pretty good view of the english school system and it is deeply confusing

 

[Lyncario]

from scotland we have a pretty good view of the english school system and it is deeply confusing

I understand the confusion. I don't think that the english themselves understand their school system.

 

[fogbadge]

I understand the confusion. I don't think that the english themselves understand their school system.

ok youre setting me up for to many jokes, and i dont think any of them are appropriate

 

[RileyXY1]

And now, here's my list of underrated characters. All of them are third parties.

#5: Lara Croft
Being one of the biggest female icons in gaming is one of the strong points going for her. Out of all the Square Enix reps left, she is actually the most influential to gaming. Being more relevant to the Playstation is also not a limiting factor, as shown by Snake, Cloud, and Joker. Overall, Lara stands a good chance of joining the Smash roster as DLC.

#4: Arc System Works Rep
Despite having content in the game through the River City Ransom Spirits, ASW currently does not have a character in Smash yet. Big contenders include Sol Badguy from Guilty Gear and Ragna from Blazblue.

#3: Level 5 Rep
Another big Japanese company without a character. It's weird that this company who is known for having many of their games on Nintendo consoles is currently without a character unless you count Eight. Professor Layton and Jibanyan from Yo-Kai Watch are the lead favorites, but Mamoru Endou from Inazuma Eleven is also a contender, and my personal favorite for a Level 5 rep spot.

#2: Ryza
Despite being incredibly niche, Aletier is the series responsible for popularizing alchemy as an RPG mechanic. Ryza is not ever talked about in Smash speculation outside of that one fake rumor from several months ago, with all attention on series like Ninja Gaiden and Dynasty Warriors.

#1: Agumon
There's no character the community likes to pick on more than Agumon. With many people completely writing Digimon off due to it being seen more as an anime, but I can tell you, there's more to Digimon than just Adventure 1 and 02. Digimon actually started as a virtual pet line like the Tamagotchi. It branched out into video games, some keeping the virtual pet elements, and others go for a more standard monster capture route, and others go out in wildly different directions. Digimon is actually Namco Bandai's second most profitable IP, behind only PAC-MAN, and the series is still very much active, with plans for a new game called Digimon Survive to come out, well, whenever, as well as a reboot of the original Adventure anime that is actively ongoing.

Noms: Klonoa x5

 

[Deleted member]

I was going to participate on today, but most of what I thought about are all based on how I feel on the characters instead of how likely they are like how everyone else is doing it, and I can't come up with 5 underrated picks because there's only 2 franchises that I find heavily underrated. Unless otherwise, I'm going to abstain today.

As for this new rule, yes let's do it. A few extra sentences to talk about both chance and want doesn't hurt.

 

[Lyncario]

ok youre setting me up for to many jokes, and i dont think any of them are appropriate

You see, the bigger joker here is that I had no idea I was setting you up for inapropriate jokes.

Since this derailed from the already off-topic topic, here is another "which idiotic french though that translating this like that was ok?".

So, in computer language, data is stored in bytes. In France, we call them octets. And the thing is that an octet is composed of 8 bits. Somebody thouh that this was ok, for some reason.

 

[fogbadge]

You see, the bigger joker here is that I had no idea I was setting you up for inapropriate jokes.

Since this derailed from the already off-topic topic, here is another "which idiotic french though that translating this like that was ok?".

So, in computer language, data is stored in bytes. In France, we call them octets. And the thing is that an octet is composed of 8 bits. Somebody thouh that this was ok, for some reason.

don’t worry about it, doesn’t take much to set a Scot up for a joke about England

 

[Mr. MR]

I was going to participate on today, but most of what I thought about are all based on how I feel on the characters instead of how likely they are like how everyone else is doing it, and I can't come up with 5 underrated picks because there's only 2 franchises that I find heavily underrated. Unless otherwise, I'm going to abstain today.

One of them better be Dynasty Warriors because no one else here seems to talk about it and I’m getting lonely lol.

 

[fogbadge]

Double post strikes again