Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[MasterWarlord]

Celica Chance - 4%: The remake of her game is in the awkward spot of too new for the development process and too old for DLC. She isn't super popular like Lyn is either. Still, there is a possibility her game could fit into that perfect mold it needs to to make her DLC, and she is certainly far more unique gameplay wise than Lyn.

Celica Want - 8.5%: I'll take it over Lyn and a new advertisement lord because of magic. Still obviously a very low score because it's a Fire Emblem character.

Andy Chance - 0.5%: The world where he gets in is basically a world where his company is secretly deciding to do a new Advance Wars game and informed Sakurai in advance. It's a dead IP and it's not retro. The reason the franchise is dead is because they're struggling to convert it into waifu wars like Fire Emblem has become Waifu Emblem with Awakening and other games on.

Andy Want - 50%: Would much, much rather see this as far as strategy games representation over more Fire Emblem. Fire Emblem has left me completely and utterly unimpressed with its characters. All of Andy's proposed movesets have him actually using his units and bringing them into battle, because otherwise he's a generic loser with a wrench. His games have more meat to them gameplay wise than Fire Emblem as well. The story is...A far cry from Fire Emblem's, to say the least, but at least the franchise still has fun characters in it. A theoretical second Advance Wars character (Which doesn't exist in any universe) could be Sturm or something, who would be a heck of a lot better than junk like Celica, Lyn, and advertisements.

Nominate Blue Bowser x5

 

[WingedSupernova]

Celica Chance - 3%: Just because her game was remade last year doesn't mean she has a better chance.
Celica Want - 0.5%: I just wouldn't feel anything for her if she were announced.

Andy Chance - 5%: Since his series has been represented in some fashion it's possible, but highly unlikely. A very niche game series that most casual fans have overlooked.
Andy Want - 20%: I wouldn't be that excited if he got in tbh, but it might be interesting just to see what they do with it.

 

[BluePikmin11]

Going to hold off on Celica for now. I am having an interesting discussion about placeholder spots for FE and Pokemon to rate her right now. Plus, I have been feverishly addicted to playing Echoes, so I am not sure if I am in the best position to rate Celica.

I feel Andy's situation is similar to Isaac's situation. The series has been dormant for a long time after the release Days of Ruin, much like with Dark Dawn. Perhaps we could see Intelligent System revive the series during the Switch life cycle if there is room for developme, but it would be too late to add the character in the base game or DLC IMO. The new game would have to reach the same amount of praise and success as the original Advance Wars to be considered for the installment after Smash Switch AND have the right timing to be considered. But it all depends on Intelligent Systems really, as they have been sticking to Fire Emblem and occasionally Paper Mario since the success of Awakening.

For me, the retro argument does not hold up. And even if it did, Takamaru or Balloon Fighter would likely get in over Andy, and I consider Takamaru in particular to be the frontrunner candidate for the next retro given all of the things pointed to his inclusion. I cannot see Andy being considered for playability. Wars will most likely have AT representation again for Smash Switch.

x5 Octolings

 

[YoshiandToad]

Celica
Chance: 20%
Yeah, I still think we're getting a new FE character and she's from the latest game. Looks like she didn't even make it into the top 20 most popular female Fire Emblem characters in the Choose Your Legend, but her ability to do things outside swordsplay makes up for it.

Like Lyn she too has recently been the odd duck in Fire Emblem Warriors being the only character from her game whilst the focus was on Marth, Robin and Corrin's worlds. Possibly just promotion for the latest game, but there's a chance IS wanted to push her a bit.

Want: 53%
HMM. See, I was quite pumped for Lyn even though she offers less than Celica does. Watching gameplay footage of FE Warriors makes me see her as somewhat of a Zelda-esque individual with blade play and what appears to be holy magic?

On the bright side, I'm not against her inclusion, but I'm not entirely wowed by her either for some reason.

(note; 50% want is if I really don't care one way or the other, I've just realised many are using 0% for that. <50% is for characters I dislike or am against to varying levels)

Andy
Chance: 3%
HOO BOY. So Andy has a few things against him. Advance Wars is a series as dead as Golden Sun, but unlike Isaac there's no massive fan effort to get him thrown into Smash. Andy isn't particularly disliked, and he's rep a whole new series, I just can't see him getting huge amounts of votes in the ballot since a good chunk of people probably had never even heard of Advanced Wars.

He's in that awkward period where theyr'e not QUITE retro but not quite modern enough to generate sales, and I can't see Nintendo going "Hey; promote this dead franchise" to Sakurai, or even Intelligent Systems talk about Andy whilst they've got Celica, Lyn, Chrom, and a bajillion other Fire Emblem characters they want to promote instead.

The things going for Andy are; he'd be pretty unique, he'd rep a new series and if Sakurai truly is worried about putting in more FE characters then with how close he seems to be with Intelligent Systems he may suggest they focus on another series instead...

...unfortunately that means Andy would still have to compete with Paper Mario and Warioware, which are two pretty biggish current series which although no where near the power house names they were on the Gamecube anymore, still blow the Advance Wars series out the water with sales, popularity and known branding.

Heck, even if IS don't want to go for a Mario-verse title they've still got Pushmo and Project S.T.E.A.M. that have come out in the past three years...

Also if there's an Advance Wars rep there's no guarantee it will be Andy as there's also Sami(who is combat ready and roughly as popular from what I can tell), Max(although Andy is more popular than him) and Will who was from the latest game in the franchise.

Want: 65%
It's a shame because I actually DO want Andy to get into Smash...eventually. Whilst he wouldn't make my personal Top 10 list as of this time of writing, there's a strong chance he'd be in my top 20. I do think Advance Wars deserves a chance to be revigorated and encourage more games of the franchise to come out, but unfortunately there's a lot of other characters I'd support before him.

Nomination:
Concept: Zelda Newcomer X 5

 

[AwesomeAussie27]

Celica

Chance: 25%

She's relevant thanks to Shadows of Valencia and a main character. That's good. But she still face competition from a Fire Emblem Switch Lord.

Want: 60%

Celica is alright, I would vastly prefer many characters over her. But she would be alright.

Andy

Chance: 10%

Unfortunately, Advance Wars had been dead for a while. While there is the Infantry and Tanks Assist Trophy, there needs to be more noise for a playable character from that series.

Want: 100%

Andy's got potential, he would be a great character with a focus on commanding many military units in the game.

Nominations: Tsubasa Oribe x5

 

[Troykv]

Celica, the ginger princess

Chance: 40%

I think this is the highest I can go with a Fire Emblem Character right now... I mean, we don't have the obvious FE Choice this time, and Sakurai had become extremely more careful selecting new FE Characters... but the probabities of a new FE Character are still above 75%... Celica is one of them and nowadays the one in the best position to be a playable characters thanks to being the protag of a the latest main game, not being a Marth clone (Warriors is an exception because well... that game needed to force some characters late in the development) and overall appealing design.

Want: 50%

I'm neutral with her, I like and dislike things about her in pretty much equal levels; also I have a friend that would like to play as her in an enviroment that doesn't make her look dumb.


Andy/Ryo

Oh boy, the anime child from Wars, I think the second character in the series (after Ms. Tutorial) to get a name.

Chance: 15% Want: 50%

Oh boy, I love to be optimistic with games that Maeda killed (I hate you Maeda by the way), that I think deserves another chances after falling... and this series deserves something to shine.

Wars is fun and tactical, it's like playing FE with less RPG Stuff and more TBS Stuff... I guess (I only played AW1), and Ryo is like their Marth, their Cloud, that character that without appear in the whole franchise, it's always see as their icon.

______

Nomination time:

Micaiah (Fire Emblem) x5

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

Celica

Chance: 20%

Probably the likeliest FE character right now. But again, after Smash 4 I feel Fire Emblem will take a backseat.

Want: 0%

Lol FE

Andy

Chance: 3%

Dead franchise.

Want: 45%

Haven't played Advance Wars, but I wouldn't mind seeing his franchise be revived were he to included. Definitely deserves it more than anyone from FE.

Nominations:
Hades x5

 

[Sid-cada]

Celica

Chance - 13.5% - I dunno. It's recent, got some support, and is the more interesting of the two leads of her game. A remake that didn't do quite as well as Awakening and Fates doesn't look overly good to me.

Want - 40% - Could be interesting, but I only want Anna in.


Andy

Chance - 7.5% - Unless they make a new game, Andy is going to fade away. The series still got an assist trophy, but who knows how long it will last...

Want - 70% - While I'm not attached to the series, I can see the potential right here. I'm already imaging the things he can do... Artillery for a long-ranged fire, an anti-aircraft tank for shooting down opponents....


Predic... what do you mean we don't have anything to predict? Huh... what surprise do we have in store tomorrow?... It's going to be an April fool prank isn't it...


Nominaitions

Anna X5

 

[Wyoming]

Prediction for surprises:

45.5%
31.3%

There we go, give me my noms as the only one to do them.

 

[Icedragonadam]

We're rating Goku and Shrek tomorrow aren't we?

 

[AwesomeAussie27]

We're rating Goku and Shrek tomorrow aren't we?

Nah, that would be too predictable.

How about Spongebob and Steven Universe instead?

 

[Dr. Jojo Phantasma]

Nah, that would be too predictable.

How about Spongebob and Steven Universe instead?

Oh come on, we clearly need Mickey Mouse and Popeye!

 

[MasterOfKnees]

Celica:

Chance: 40% - Most likely FE newcomer in general, but I don't think it's as clear that we'll get an Echeos rep as it's been with other games in past Smash games, I think this is one of the few times we'll see other characters challenge the more relevant choice.

Want: 20%

Andy:

Chance: 3% - One of many characters caught in between being relevant and retro, only the Advance Wars faithful remember him these days.

Want: 20%

 

[fogbadge]

just gonna rate andy

chances: 10% the series being dormant for quite some time does feel like it goes against it kind of feels like if they were gonna do it they would have done it by now

want: 50% i do feel like we should have a wars characters in smash (despite being able to get in to wars)

 

[ShinyRegice]

Good thing that the thread has been sticked

Celica chances: abstain
Celica want: abstain

Andy chances: 11%
Could get revived, but I imagine would be fairly low priority.

Andy want: 28%
I guess he'd be okay, but kinda feels "whatever" to me.

Guessing for tomorrow...

Spoiler

I suppose we're going to rate something silly for April Fools' day, right? Are we going to rate a non-video game character like Goku or something? Or an actual video game character but still super silly, like Roller Coaster Tycoon park visitor? Although probably still alongside something serious taken from the top of the nomination list so the day doesn't feel like a complete joke.

Nominating:
Concept: veteran character artworks recycled from Smash 3DS/Wii U x

 

[BluePikmin11]

Celica is in a good position to be considered by Sakurai for Smash Switch, given the time span of Echoes' release date and Smash Switch's possible planning and development. But, I feel the main problem with Celica being as much of a high priority as Robin in Smash 4 is her lack of unique traits. Among all of the FE candidates, Robin already has the unique theme of magic and swords, as stated in the project proposal in Smash 4. Then there is the problem with FE overrepresentation. Sakurai has stated before in Corrin's inclusion that he was worried about adding too many characters from the franchise, and it was only because of developmental staff assurance that Sakurai was convinced Corrin would make for an interesting fighter.

Sakurai will likely take this stance again when considering an FE character like Celica and note the theme similarities of her and Robin. Fortunately, it puts Celica in a position where Sakurai can add her as a last-minute semi-clone, for the main reason being her fan-popularity (for reference, here is the FE:Heroes character poll), being included for the same reasons as Lucina. There are many references Sakurai will likely utilize with FE: Echoes and FE:Warriors (with the latter emphasizing her swordplay) to note her qualifications as a last-minute clone. She would be a semi-clone in the sense of Wolf, with the different swordplay and the magic available to use (Thunder, Fire, Seraphim).

I can see her getting in, that is if FE:Switch does not get in the way of prioritizing over an Echoes character. Regarding Alm, I cannot see it. I feel he is in a similar position to Chrom back in Smash 4 in terms of moveset potential. He does not hold as much fan-popularity as Celica to be considered, even for a last-minute clone.

 

[zipzapsparkle]

Andy

Chance: 2%
Want: 10%

His series is dormant, he’s not retro enough, nor is he the first CO in the series. He’s just the first in a story based wars game.

Celica

Chance: 15%
Want: 0%

She’s got a pretty design, and could be unique but we know what they do to characters that have a sword in their kit. Didn’t really like the way she was written either. She definitely is one of the most recent but she’s not the only one. I think it makes more sense to pick the Switch lord, since SoV already performed. Unless they didn’t talk about that character at the time, which I doubt.

Cranky Kong x4
Kamek x1

 

[FrozenRoy]

Chances, Celica: 65%

Okay, so given I missed Chrom's day and we have Lyn and Celica back to back, I'm going to discuss why I think Celica is a pretty likely Fire Emblem newcomer and what I think about Fire Emblem's chances together. First off, an obvious thing: In terms of money and lucrativeness in Nintendo and ignoring anyone's thoughts on the games, Fire Emblem is on a huge upswing. Awakening and Fates sold like hotcakes. Fire Emblem Heroes makes a good deal of money and significantly more than Super Mario Run, which people were bringing up for Daisy. Echoes was popular, even if it failed to sell as much as Awakening/Fates. Or to put it simply, Nintendo has fiscal reasons to wish for Fire Emblem to succeed. Fire Emblem has always had an interesting relation to the roster in terms of size as well, with Marth/Roy appearing in Melee (Roy due to advertising) while Kirby had (a popular Sakurai franchise) to wait until Brawl to get multiple characters and so on.

My personal estimation is we will get 1 to 2 new Fire Emblem characters and 0 to 3 Fire Emblem cuts, quite possibly in tandem (IE 2 additions 1 cut for 1 overall gain). Now, who will be cut? Lets go through each Fire Emblem character.

Marth: Obviously not being cut. Popular character from the best selling non-Awakening/Fates Fire Emblem games. Super Smash Staple. Popular gameplay.

Roy: A solid choice to be cut. FE6 is not an especially popular Fire Emblem, as far as I know. Roy is one of the less popular Lords. Roy has already been cut before, so we know Sakurai is willing to cut him, and he only made it in as DLC to begin with (and I feel uncertain if DLC has the same veteran bonus as normal veterans: Uncharted territory, folks!). As much as I love Roy, he was my Melee main and is the source of my Smashboards name after all, I consider him the most likely Fire Emblem to be cut and I'm not sure he would be north of 50% chances.

Ike: Hasn't had any indication of being cut, represents Fire Emblem games that were decently large in the West and kind of a gateway to it, Smash Brothers memes. He also is VERY popular as far as Fire Emblem males go, the Choose Your Legends poll is post-Smash but it sure shows it and judging from Ike seeing some love in Smash 4 I doubt Nintendo is unaware. I would be very surprised if Ike was cut.

Lucina: Another character very popular for Fire Emblem, a representative of one of the two best selling games in the franchise. Being a clone currently helps and hurts her. I feel like clones get less priority to stay in Smash Brothers and I expect Dark Pit and Dr. Mario to be gone, unless Dark Pit is decloned. On the other hand, it makes the effort a lot less for Sakurai and Friends, and given her popularity it would be logical to keep her in just for that + low effort. She could have a unique set if wanted, my personal thought was always to give her a middle sweetspot compared to Roy and Marth. She's one I could see cut, but would give higher odds of staying in.

Robin: Also represents Awakening, I feel like Robin's unique gameplay elements make him significantly more likely to stay around than the other Fire Emblem newcomers, a good deal of effort obviously was put into animations, modeling and voice work, which gives it an extra touch of love and makes me more likely to think they would stay. I could see them go, but they seem pretty likely to stay, moreso than Lucina.

Corrin: DLC makes it hard to guess veteran bonus and Corrin was somewhat of an advertisement pick. Fates is very popular, Corrin is pretty popular but by far not the most in Fates. Has multiple unique gameplay elements, I have read Corrin's DLC did not sell as much as other DLC but a Google search proves nothing. Personally, I think Corrin is likely to stay, but I can also see a good amount of possibilities where Corrin is removed.

So, Roy, then Lucina, then Corrin are the 3 I think could be removed, and all 3 could stay as well. I don't think Fire Emblem will lack a newcomer, as now is fiscally lucrative for Nintendo to add one (and Nintendo could easily mandate Sakurai add 1 FE) and the series is at its highest popularity-wise. There's a good deal of moveset potential to be wrung from the series.

So, who are probable newcomers? I did not get to rank Chrom's chances, but I would give him 51%, being decently likely as one of Awakening's leads. Lyn I gave 22.5%, being popular but not fitting much with FE's current trajectory, although she would be a heavy favorite if FE7 got a remake (but any announced remake at this point is probably too late except as DLC). I think one of the most likely or the most likely picks is Celica, though.

And why not? She is fairly popular, for the moment. She would fit the trend of Fire Emblem advertising characters. Her game is in a pretty good sweetspot developement-wise to make her way into Smash Brothers. She has solid moveset potential. I wouldn't call her someone who feels like a lock, I can see more worlds where we lack a new Fire Emblem character than a Kirby one, but she feels like one of the higher likelihood characters for a series that I feel is likely to get new ones. I feel she gets depressed some by solid competition, however: Chrom is likely, Lyn is very popular, Anna is a darkhorse pick who can represent multiple game series, I wouldn't be surprised to see Hector in due to Sakurai seeing him as "fresh" and being popular, or one of the Fates' siblings being in due to potential and popularity. These keep Celica from being too high, but 65% is still pretty high. I like her odds. Oh, and she's a lot more popular than Alm, so she would obviously get in over Alm.

Chances, Andy: 10%

Andy's time has passed. Advance Wars has not had a new entry in a decade. There is no indication of a new Advance Wars game. I give him 12% and better than Ivysaur odds for a few reasons, though. Andy has been an AT in multiple games and seems to exist on Sakurai's radar. I can see a world where the N64/GBA or GBA/Gamecube form a new "Retro" era for Sakurai and he pulls from those games for "historical" purposes. If that happens, then an AW rep like Andy is decently likely. He brings pretty strong potential to the table and so Sakurai could be drawn to, say, a unique summoner style character. None of these combine to make Andy especially likely, but a bunch of small chances add up to a slightly better small chance. He's an Isaac style choice, someone whose time has passed but has niche popularity and moveset appeal that offers him options.

Want, Celica: 64%

Celica would be pretty neat. I enjoyed Roy a good deal, I love playing Ike, Marth is fun...these swordie types play the kind of way I tend to enjoy and thus would be interested in seeing more. But Celica also has the bonus of magic, and I enjoy magic knight characters. Celica brings her self-damaging magic to the mix, which gives her a strong way to differentiate herself from Robin and some unique gameplay chances. Yes, I know, Pichu sucked, but Pichu isn't the gold standard for self-damage. Even something as simple as Celica powering up her magic in exchange for taking damage has fun gameplay applications.

Celica also seems like a good deal of a richer and more complex character than Lyn and I rather enjoy her character design in FE15 (...we don't talk about her original FE2 design). She isn't an AMAAAZING character to me as I lack a strong connection to her and I don't think she has the strongest set potential, but she would excite me.

Want, Andy: 52%

I don't have much of an attachment to Andy either, but he could have a pretty neat set. Summoning of AW units, wrench repair and attacks, you could do a fair deal of cool stuff with Andy. No real connection to his character, but Advance Wars would be a neat franchise to rep and is a series I have interest in playing. So it mostly comes down to fun moveset possibilities and some unique, new franchise repping.

Predictions

N/A

Nominations

Medusa x5

 

[Graizen]

Celica
Chances: 10%
Want: 0%

As I said earlier in my opinion about FE characters, I want them to have new characters yes! But be creative and bring new things, as was the case with Robin.

Andy
Chances: 10%
Want: 50%

He comes from a series of games loved by many people, but at the same time quite obscure to be represented! I believe that he would be a very unique and cool character to use, but I do not know if his chances are high since nowadays only well-known characters enter the game.

Nomination: Agumon x5

 

[Strider_Bond00J]

Celica:

Chance: 40%
Celica definitely saw a good amount of revival thanks to Echoes, so I think it'd probably be a matter of whether or not we'll see a new Fire Emblem character this time around because of how much content the series received last year. However, I do think her chances would be much more optimal than a 'FE16 Protagonist' or even Lyn, who could just stay an Assist Trophy.

Echoes being the most recent game probably helps, so there could be something to work with...

Want: 65%
Although she's not my favourite or preferred choice for a new potential Fire Emblem character in Smash, I did enjoy Echoes a lot after the sour taste I had playing (Read: Eventually giving up) Fates. Opo's idea for Celica using a 'Drawn-from-health' mechanic like her home game has me slightly interested, but she's not my overall preference for a newcomer to Smash. However, I DO want that amazing Echoes soundtrack in Smash like "Twilight of the Gods," "March to the Deliverance," "The Dauntless Blade" and most importantly the new remix of "With Mila's Divine Protection" if we got Celica.

"What's an airport again?"
Chance: 2%
Given that Advance Wars has been thrown under the blanket as a result of Fire Emblem's commercial success, I doubt Advance Wars will see anything more than the Infantry and Tanks Assist Trophy, and Andy's days are long gone.

Want: Abstain
Not exactly interested in wanting Advance Wars content for Smash just yet.

Nomination: Marx X5

 

[Starcutter]

Celica: 20%
While I like Celica's game and wouldn't mind her inclusion, I don't think that she would be Intelligent System's first choice for a smash newcomer. In the past, Sakurai has gone to IS to talk FE, and I don't think this game will be any different. That's because that game's lifespan is practically over, plus Heroes and Warriors seem to be more current. While Celica was in Warriors, Lyn was also in there. I think Lyn and Celica are the two likeliest FE characters for smash, and warriors does them both a favor. In the end, I think IS will pick someone out of left-field or an upcoming character (or one of those two). Sakurai does have the ultimate vote, however, and I think he might be more interested in Celica than Lyn for moveset's sake but not by much.

Want: 60%
Shadows of Valentia was the first FE I completed, so I'd be OK with her inclusion.

Andy: 4%
Who?

Want: 40%
I don't have an attachment to Advance Wars but I feel like I'd be ok with his inclusion.

Nom: Isabelle x5

 

[andimidna]

Celica:
Opossum’s post made me reconsider some things here. This is actually a really interesting concept from a gameplay perspective, which may be all the push she needs. However, there are still a lot of characters with the potential to be included, and there is no obligation to add a FE character in the first place, certainly not to the same extent that there’s a push for a DK or Metroid character. I’d say the only way a new one is added is over a push for a newly promoted character or a unique moveset concept, which she can fulfill the criteria of, but isn’t the only one that can fulfill this. She may very well be the most likely of the choices though. I’d say so, actually. The way her game works perfectly builds a unique concept that translates well to a fighting character.
I’m gonna arbitrarily rank the concept of a FE newcomer at around 55%.
I think I overrated Lyn a bit. I gave her 10%, but I don’t think popularity would be enough for her unless there was a push for representing FE (when there’s a push for the opposite) or she had a unique fighter concept to fulfill, such as puppeteer, grappler, etc. I’d say her popularity warrants maybe ehhh 8%. She likely did well in the Ballot, but we don’t know, leaving some guesswork. I’d give 3% to my queen Azura since her game has passed and is well represented. I’ll give 5% to Tiki since Warriors gave her another platform for popularity, specifically her iconic young design, since the common theme of dragons has been well fulfilled with Corrin, and her fighting style doesn’t necessarily translate over intuitively. We also don’t know the state of transformation characters. I gave 0.5% to Chrom iirc. I stand by that. I think the concept of Lucina & Chrom is more of a veteran since it’d be more like reworking her to be unique from Marth, honestly, so that’s separate. I’ll give 7% to Anna being added as like an end-all be-all FE character representing weapons and styles throughout the entire series, being the mascot chosen to avoid complaints over flooding the roster and being able to have moveset tweets to represent new games rather than new characters. This isn’t as likely since promotion of characters would be more effective than that of new moves, but that doesn’t discredit the idea entirely. Camilla (and Tharja) aren’t even on the radar in my eyes. I just don’t understand how you could pick someone so insignificant when their popularity isn’t even *that* immense. They both have a sizable hate-base alongside their fanbases. She isnt remotely the Fates character that Azura is, and Azura is already unlikely. I’ll give Camilla 0.3%, Xander & Ryoma 0.1%, and Takumi 0.05%. Furthermore, I’ll give Tharja 0.03% and Cordelia 0.01%. Also, Caeda a 0.01%. The unique concept that could come from Heroes is a summoner character, but I doubt it could get that much focus, as much as I like the idea, so Kiran and Veronica and any other Heroes-only combined get 1%. The new FE Warriors and Tokyo Mirage Sessions characters get 0% tbh. The FE Switch game is a big unknown, and I honestly consider the concept of DLC characters in my chances, because I just don’t know how many characters will be added to the main game and I doubt it’ll match previous installments until DLC slowly rolls out. They wouldn’t add the FE Switch protagonist just to add them, but they would if they had some sort of unique concept to them, which may or may not be the case. There’s so much guesswork involved, so let’s put that at 10%. I think the game will be a huge deal, as the series hasn’t seen a home console in any significant way for a long time. Now I think I’ve covered all of the bases except for Echoes content, only using up 34%. The possibilities I see here are Alm (solo) [I don’t see this as its own character, so I think the only possibility is replacing Roy as the main face of the moveset with Roy alt costumes either already in the game or as DLC, which hasn’t been done before even when it made a ton of sense with Impa in Smash 4 so... 1%], Celica & Alm (duo) [I cant help but feel as though making Chrom & Lucina pair up hadn’t been discussed in the development of Smash 4 when trying to figure out how to make Chrom stand out as a unique character, which we know he had been in development. They’re now stuck with the question of whether to try to distinctify Lucina, return her as a clone, or scrap her assets. I also can totally see this concept turning into an Alm & Celica duo over time given Celica’s far more interesting potential as a fighter (coming from someone with a Lucina pfp, I’m not biased against her). This would also fulfill the “fighter concept” qualification to the appeal of translating them into a fighting character(s)- an ICs duo between 2 characters that don’t share a moveset and stats, where you can switch the front character (who would be the “anchor”) via down B. I find this appealing gameplay-wise and great representation. I don’t know if they’ll think of this or want to do it at all, so... 9%]
Leaving solo Celica, who could be totally interesting on her own as a spiritual successor to Pichu’s and Robin’s movesets, but not being a joke character and being a better mage with far more focus on magic and healing.
I’m just now noticing I forgot Micaiah existed, but now that I’m considering the potential of Celica as a character, I think they’re at direct odds and Celica wins that out no question. I’ll give Micaiah a 0.05%, which I believe leaves solo Celica with...
***Chance: 10.95%***
If I added that up right. There was so much guesswork and estimation that it almost seemed pointless to go through anyways. But for what it’s worth, that was my thought process, and I like the result of ~11 for solo Celica but ~20 overall for being part of a playable character. It’s fully within the realm of possibilities, and I wouldn’t be shocked persay, but it’s definitely not something I’d say is more likely than not even remotely.
I don’t think the possibility of being a new clone is even there at all, but if that Alm “replacing” Roy thing happened (a 1% chance in my eyes), since making Celica play like Marth now has precedence, Celica could technically “replace” Lucina (just freshening up the roster even if they’re still clones) as the face of her assets, once again with the alt of Lucina herself at some point. This seems less likely. I’m not sure why they’d bother to represent new games but not do them justice unless it was at the end of development, but late roster padding should be a thing of the past at this point, given smash 4 DLC’s success and the sheer number of preexisting characters, assuming this started as a port. (Everything I rate is under this assumption by the way... or just finds it extremely likely I’ll say).
***Want: 85%***
I love Opposum’s moveset and concept. Also, love her character. Also, also, loved how useful Celica’s Gale was in Awakening
But yea, fantastic design that isn’t slutty or awkward, as opposed to the infamously ugly Gaiden designs they had previously. She’s a lovely princess character that I can’t wait to know more of when I finish Revelations and buy Echoes. College has kinda put a hold on that.
I always wanted a pure mage, and Micaiah just doesn’t seem to be getting the attention she used to get. Also, Tharja isn’t important to her own game and got her trophy removed. Yikes.
The only issue may be the mystery new protagonist. I can’t wait to see who they are this E3! : )
Oh and for reference, I’d rate the duo higher because the concept just seems like a plus to me. I mean, I find it really interesting. Alm could even still implement Roy’s moveset and Roy & Lilina could be an alt to reuse those assets while not keeping a semiclone play style.
Andy:
Chance: 5%
Seems his requests have only gone down, and series only more officially dormant, which seems damning for a retro character. If they were gonna go back in time for a dead non-retro series, Isaac’s popularity seems far more significant. I just can’t imagine them pulling both Isaac and Andy out of nowhere, but I can’t say it’s impossible. He does appear to be the main face of his series, and people have made unique movesets for him. But honestly, why wouldn’t they just go for a new Fire Emblem character? Sorry, that probably sounds like heresy to some people lmao
Want: 55%
I’m not against it, but yea I would like a new FE character over this concept. Sorry to be that person lol

??? Prediction: 50%
???2? Prediction: 50%
Can’t go wrong with predicting a coin flip when I don’t know what we’re rating. I expected Midna and Dillon to be next, so I moved on from rating Midna, but it looks like I have to go back. Oh well.

x3 Midna
x2 Veronica

 

[NintenRob]

Celica
Chance: 4%
Want: 0%
I have no desire for another Fire Emblem character, and while she stars in the most recent Fire Emblem game, that fire emblem game was just a remake

Andy
Chance: 0%
Long forgotten series, not exactly retro
Want 5%
Meh?

Nominate skull Kid x4
Parabo & Satebo x1

Prediction: Dr Eggman 11%
Mr Mime 1%

 

[BluePikmin11]

andimidna I would advise organizing and breaking the analysis down into smaller paragraphs if you want people to read your post on Celica.

 

[DNeon]

Oooooh boy. Here goes.

Firstly, lets cover something, Wars isn't just "Inteligent Systems' other strategy game". Wars was the first one.

Secondly, if people are struggling with movesets I had a rough one worked out, which I just missed out on illustrating before the day being pushed forward caught me off guard definitley nothing to do with my general procrastination. The important thing about Andy is that he presents an opportunity to be a fully 'summon' focused character, going beyond Olimar and the traps of DHD, he can be entirely focussed on generating threats to deal with

Spoiler: Moveset

Notes: All summoned units can be destroyed with varying amounts of damage (essentially removing hitboxes). All other moves (using wrenches) charge a "CO meter" with their damage.

Jab: 1-2 swipes with his wrenches, followed by a rapid twirling of it in front of him, similar to Dedede's without the range.

Side Tilt: Andy hurls a wrench straight ahead, then searches his pocket for a new one. Weak damage, mostly chip and building meter without committing, but punishable with it's end lag.

Up Tilt: Andy does his signature happy pose, thrusting both fists into the air above his head, grinning from ear to ear. Sweeps opponents up but mostly a juggling move.

Down Tilt: A simple low swipe. Just for keeping approaches honest.

Neutral Air: Andy summons Fighters, that swirl around him. A bit of a 'get off me' move.

Forward Air: A heavy swing downwards with his wrench with both hands. Has a spike.

Up Air: Twirls two wrenches above his head, again similar to Dedede with less range.

Back Air: Andy summons a Stealth that he sends straight backwards behind him with a little range to it. Weak, a bit of a wall of pain but slower in exchange for higher range.

Down Air: Andy rolls in the air, swinging his wrenches underneath him, sending his opponents slightly behind him.

Forward Smash: Andy summons a Battleship into a puddle slightly in front of him (this animation has a small water/windbox to it like Graninja's taunt). On release the Battleship releases a flurry of explosions, like Samus Up Smash but from bottom to top.

Up Smash: Andy summons an Anti-Air slightly behind him, signalling for it to hold. On release he punches a very short distance forward to signal it to fire an explosive cloud above Andy's head. Doesn't sweep up from the front, instead just having a weak hit box on the fist. Does from the back, but Anti-Air can be destroyed from the back too. If fully charged the explosion will leave behind a flak cloud that does damage to those in it and has low knockback if it reaches a certain amount of damage.

Down Smash: Andy charges then on release summons a Bomber to fly over him from front to back, razing the ground as it goes, the ground explosions working as the hitboxes. If fully charged the explosions will leave behind napalm on the ground that does damage to those in it and has low knockback if it reaches a certain amount of damage.

Grab: Andy summons an Infantry and Mech to dive tackle slightly forward to hold the opponent.

Pummel: Stabbing/poking motion with the wrenches.

Forward Throw: Winds up to hit with the wrench like a baseball bat. Mech fires a rocket in followup for slightly more knockback. Not a kill throw until Mech rocket is Upgraded.

Up Throw: Grabs the opponent from his soldiers, struggling to hoist them above his head, crouches then straightens out and throws the opponent into the air. The Infantry fires in followup for damage. Not a kill throw.

Back Throw: Grabs the opponent by the lapels to swing them around and throw them backwards. Mech fires a rocket in followup for slightly more knockback. Not a kill throw until Mech rocket is Upgraded.

Down Throw: On command the soldiers throw the opponent to Andy's feet. Infantry fires at them for damage before Andy kicks them into the air. Not a kill throw.

Neutral Special: Hyper Repair/Hyper Upgrade: Andy charges his CO Stars by doing damage (only himself, not his units). If at 3 stars he can use Hyper Repair, posing to heal for 25%. If at 6 he'll use Hyper Upgrade, posing to heal for 50% and increasing the knockback and health of all of his summoned units. When used without enough Stars he'll pose, then grumpily throw his wrench in a longer ranged Forward Tilt for still minimal damage, only gaining range from the extra startup.

Side Special: Command ____: Andy takes out a radio, charging a unit in similar fashion to Pacman's Neutral B, displaying the current unit in a speech bubble from the radio, going from Recon to Light Tank, Medium Tank, Neotank, Mega Tank. This charge can be stored, and when released will summon the unit in front of Andy, moving forward and turning at ledges, faster at lower charge but much higher health at higher charge. Re-using side special causes the unit to fire an explosion in front of it, then disappear.

Up Special: Battle Copters: Andy summons a pair of Battle Helicopters above his head. If Up Special is pressed again he'll grab onto them for a fairly controlled recovery similar to Olimar and Villager, susceptible to having his Copters broken and going into free fall, if not they fly slightly upwards (approx. just above platform level) and then forwards firing diagonally downwards occasionally for flinching damage.

Down special: Artillery/Rocket Launcher: Summons an Artillery unit behind Andy that stays in place and starts charging up for a projectile attack. When fired this attack goes in a high (~platform and a half), short ranged arc with decent knockback. If done in an smash input then the Artillery will be replaced by a Rocket Launcher that takes longer to charge up, but travels slightly faster in a lower (not quite platform height) but much longer arc for the same knockback.

This moveset is basically to be a very good character at boxing out the opponent and preventing approaches, but has no kill options beyond the hard to hit off stage Forward Air spike or Down Special hits at quite high percentage. That is unless he can manage to reach his second level of his Neutral Special, which largely requires him to get up close and attempt juggles outside of punishable, low damage pokes from an uncharged Neutral Special and Forward Tilt. Get in and he can have a hard time getting you back off and he's not too hard to kill, but he'll make that difficult until he can find an opportunity to get some good CO Meter charge, and sometimes he'll have to sacrifice his charge to stop you from getting the kill on him.

As for the actualy voting, whoops, forgot for a second:

Andy

Chance: 30%

I know I'm optimistic, but I really think that he was a character considered for both Brawl and 4. Unlike other 'low likelihood' characters (cough Isaac cough sorry) his series has kept the Assist Trophy, and with the excitement for FE being at it's peak it makes a 'legacy IS' character more likely than legacy characters from other roles. AW is also hitting the age that people are really noticing its absence. It's been brought up before but in the /r/NintendoSwitch Poll for Most Wanted Games Wars came in as the 5th most wanted unannounced series (6th but Smash Bros was announced mid poll). There is a lot of love for this series and multiple rumours for an awakening style 'ultimatum' return. That popularity needs to be taken into account.

Want: 100%

This should be obvious, I love the series and eagerly await his return, I love all the characters and their charming personalities, especially the lovable and cheery Andy. I love his design, and I love the potential for his moveset. Not to mention it would fit right in with my playstyle. There's nothing I don't love about this idea, he's my #1 most wanted.

Celica

Chance: 30%

Same chance for different reasons. She's one of the most popular FE females, and could even be a semi-clone of robin focussing on Fire and Light spells over his generality. She's recent too, so relevant (though agruing relevance for any FE character is hard with how much potentially Heroes skews things). If FE get's a slot for a non-Swtich Fe character then she's contesting for it, thought it's hard to argue her over other characters that stand out more in popularity or more in relevance, despite her being high up there in both.

Want: 45%

She's cool, not nearly as waifu-y as the series has made some characters, and represents more of the magical element to FE. She still has potential to be too similar to Robin for me to support her more, but a strong female FE lead is still missing from Smash, as all female FE characters are just alts. Prefer Lyn though .

Nominations:
Spyro x 5

 

[YoshiandToad]

Roy: A solid choice to be cut. FE6 is not an especially popular Fire Emblem, as far as I know. Roy is one of the less popular Lords. Roy has already been cut before, so we know Sakurai is willing to cut him, and he only made it in as DLC to begin with (and I feel uncertain if DLC has the same veteran bonus as normal veterans: Uncharted territory, folks!). As much as I love Roy, he was my Melee main and is the source of my Smashboards name after all, I consider him the most likely Fire Emblem to be cut and I'm not sure he would be north of 50% chances.

Excellent read for the majority of this rating, but this part really made me think...

Roy is often claimed to be an unpopular character with FE fans, and I cannot tell if this is the truth or not? I'm 90% sure his popularity is because he's in Smash Bros. to begin with, but he did come second on that "Choose Your Legend" popularity poll losing only to Ike in the male catogary, and handily beating fan favourite Hector, Marth(even when you add up both his scores to 24, 547) Chrom, as well as Male Robin and Male Corrin by a sizable chunk.

If Marth, Robin and Corrin weren't also in Smash I'd understand this outcome for an unpopular lord in the series proper, but considering Marth is THE face of Smash Bros. Fire Emblem and Robin and Corrin both offer superior moveset diversity to Roy, I have to question exactly where Roy got all these votes if he's not popular?

More on topic with today's character; bizarrely neither Celica or Alm appear to have made it on the list despite the majority of these votes going to recent games.

Anyone with more intell on this able to explain? Celica seems to have a fan base so I'm really perplexed.

 

[DNeon]

More on topic with today's character; bizarrely neither Celica or Alm appear to have made it on the list despite the majority of these votes going to recent games.

Anyone with more intell on this able to explain? Celica seems to have a fan base so I'm really perplexed.

There was a second one done later. I won't pretend to know the details, I assume that the top 2 in each of Heroes and Heroines from the first poll weren't in the new poll, and dont know why the Echoes characters weren't big in the first, but they make up for it in the second.

 

[Leafeon523]

Celica
Chance: 2%
So here we have (CELICA). (CELICA) may be relevant in mainstream Fire Emblem, but there's over a dozen games to consider. Considering the huge amount of Fire Emblem characters already in the roster, adding (CELICA) wouldn't really be justifiable. There's already so many characters to draw people into newer Fire Emblem, and even if (CELICA) had a totally unique play style it wouldn't contribute much. In terms of older Fire Emblem, it wouldn't do Nintendo much good to send people swarming to download ROMs so that they could play (CELICA)'s game. We also already have Roy, the protagonist of the game that IS has shown the most interest in remaking. A FE switch character has a good shot, but I can't really see anyone else making it. It's not impossible, but at this point (CELICA) should just stick to hoping for FEH seasonal costumes.

Want: 85%
I'm a big fan of fire emblem, so sure.

Andy:
Chance: 5%
I think I came across an interview at one point where IS claimed they wanted to make another advance wars game. If that got off the ground it could work out, but otherwise it's highly unlikely.

Want: 90%
I've been meaning to play an advance wars game for years, and this would give me the perfect excuse to do it.

Predicting Jesus Christ at 69.69%
A flaming bus covered in vanilla-flavored slime traveling at light speed towards a purple sun eating raisins while shouting "Put Baby Pink Gold Peach into Smash!" at 4.20%
Nominating Impa x5

 

[ZealousGamer]

Celica

Chances 25%: She is from the most recent Fire Emblem release. However, it was only a remake. Yet, another Fire Emblem sword wielder. I don't think she has a high chance.

Want 15%: I like her design but I've never played Fire Emblem. Can't say I'd be excited.

Andy

Chances 20%: I've heard of the series he is from but not much else. However, Sakurai can surprise us. Just not likely.

Want 25%: Meh. I think there are better possible newcomers. If I saw how he'd play maybe he'd get a higher rating.

Nominations:
Jibanyan 2x
Midna 2x
Skull Kid 1x

 

[Smasher 101]

Celica

Chance: 40%

I honestly would not be surprised to see a Fire Emblem newcomer, and I'm personally doubting a character from FE16 because we don't really know anything about it yet, so I currently believe someone from Echoes is the most likely outcome. I have the odds at 50/50 after taking other factors into consideration, and Celica seems to be the top choice so she gets the majority of that.

Want: 50%

As I said yesterday I'm not against another Fire Emblem character, but I don't have her game and I don't know much about her as a character, so I'm ultimately indifferent.

Andy

Chance: 5%

Wars is a big series, but it's also currently a dormant one; the last game in the series was 10 years ago, putting it right in the awkward "not very relevant, not quite retro" area. There's not a large amount of demand for a Wars character in Smash, either. I wish I could rank him higher than this, but it really would take a miracle for him to get in at this point

Want: 100%

Which is too bad, because I think he'd be an excellent addition. I already like seeing more franchise get included and Wars is one that I know and enjoy, and I think a character from the series would be a very fun and unique addition. I'd love to be proven wrong here!

Prediction: Madness

Nominations: Jibanyan x5

 

[MrRoidley]

Celica
Chances: 90% - Let's see: from the latest FE game, probably in development right alongside SSB, we're probably getting a new FE character anyways, so I think the Greninja effect could happen with FE Echoes this time around (FE Switch might just be too recent for that). Celica might not have ranked highly in the first FE Heroes polls, but I think her inclusion in FE Warriors (also developed at the same time) means Nintendo/IS think highly of her. Also, incorporating the recoil mechanic from Echoes may make her really unique, basically a Pichu but as a serious character. And about her game being a remake: that didn't stop Brawl from ignoring Pokémon RSE to add a Pokémon Trainer clearly based on FRLG.

Want: 100% - Celica is just my fave character in Fire Emblem so I really want her!

Andy
Chances: 30% - he's in an Isaac/Saki situation. Lots of supporters, is unique, but has nothing recent backing him up. So it all depends if Sakurai wants to add a "legacy" character that isn't really famous to the general public.

Want: 70% - I'm not actively supporting him but I'd like him being included, he could have a unique moveset and it could reinvigorate interest in the Wars series

 

[Al-kīmiyā']

Celica want: 5% (15-10*)

I would want her to replace Rbin.

Andy want: 0% (10-10*)

I'd rather have Sami.

Nominations:

Masked Link x5

* Indicates percentage penalty for potentially taking a slot from most wanted characters

 

[BandanaWaddleDee]

Andy
Chance: 5%
Want: 25%

Celica
Chance: 3%
Want: 0%

Nominations
Decloned Dark Pit x5

 

[Nimbostratus]

Celica
Chance- 35%
Want- 70%

Andy
Chance- 10%
Want- 100%

Nominations:
Ashley x5

 

[TCT~Phantom]

So I forgot my mouse at college so doing calcs is gonna be way more annoying, probs just gonna post everything tomorrow night. Anywho...

Andy
5% Chance

Simply put Advance Wars is dead rn and that hurts him a good bit. He also does not have nearly the same amount of demand other dead characters like Isaac do. I know that Advance Wars could be rebooted, but it would need a big push for it to be a success. Right now Andy seems unlikely to me.

70% Want

I am unfamiliar with Advance Wars, but I like the idea of another minion based character like Olimar. Summoning tanks and planes to do Andy's dirty work sounds a lot of fun.

Celica
80% Chance

I am in the camp that until I see FE Switch, I will believe that the game is in development hell and is unlikely to come out in time. Perhaps it will be a big announcement at E3, but I am rating this as I see it right now. This is like rating a Gen 7 pokemon. We know gen 8 will come, but timing and not seeing its existence makes us feel that it wont be in the game. As such, I am going off the assumption that Echoes will be the most recent FE game.

With that being said, Celica has very little competition from her home game. Alm is nowhere near as popular. Call it an availability heuristic, but there is a reason we are rating Celica instead of Alm today. She also has far more moveset potential due to Echoes Magic mechanic possibly letting her be very unique. Alm does not have that spark.

Her only competition is Lyn and Anna, but I feel they would get in as a legacy character while Celica would get in as the mainstay. For the record that means I honestly think there is ~40% chance we get 2 fire emblem newcomers.

70% Want

I like her design, she is cute. I like her personality. I think she would be fun. Need to play Echoes for me to rank her higher

Nominating No Cuts x 5

Day Over, hope y’all like tomorrow

 

[Yomi's Biggest Fan]

Son fo a *****!

Missed my day for this.

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Don’t worry y’all have until midnight tonight to post ur ratings, tomorrow, we will have some fun. Let’s just say I expect some detailed critiques.

 

[Xenigma]

Celica
Chance - 10%
She's a Marth clone in FE Warriors, and no way we're getting a third Marth clone, right?
Alongside Lyn she is the other popular choice for a new Fire Emblem character, and given Shadows of Valentia was the last main series Fire Emblem game before now, she's perhaps the most likely candidate. It may also help that she recently won the female side of the second Fire Emblem Heroes fan vote (losing out overall to Hector), although that's only if she is already up for development and was in danger of being cut along the way considering Smash for Switch should be far into development right now. My biggest concern here is that there is a sense that there are too many Fire Emblem characters in Smash as it is, and to be honest, I'm not sure Celica provides enough different capabilities from Robin (being a sword/magic user) to make the cut without very high popularity. Feels plausible but unlikely to me, and if we do end up with a new Fire Emblem character, I think we're more likely to see Lyn as a unique and/or Chrom as a Lucina alt.
Want - 25%
Potentially a neat character if she's made unique, but really not what I want from Fire Emblem personally, and if they had to add a sword/magic user, it really should be Isaac IMO.

Andy
Chance - 5%
Andy has about two chances: either Sakurai sees him as "retro" by now, or there's an Advance Wars reboot coming that we don't know about yet. Otherwise, there just isn't much to say on this front: it's telling that the Advance Wars assist trophy isn't one of the many COs, and the series has been dead for quite a while. Seems like a longshot at best right now.
Want - 100%
Back in the time of Sm4sh I was not thrilled with this idea because Andy isn't a CO I have strong feelings for. Since then I've come around to the idea both as a unique character (that big wrench!) and simply as the obvious representative for Advance Wars, a series that has been tragically left behind thanks to the runaway success of Fire Emblem. He wouldn't be quite as exciting as Isaac, but it would be a really surprising treat to see him get the Smash treatment and see the series finally get some recognition from Nintendo again.

Nominations - Lucina x5
Since AFAIK we haven't set the upcoming schedule yet; not sure what I'll change my votes to once that happens.

Predictions - ...wait, do we not have something to predict? P A N I C

 

[Yomi's Biggest Fan]

Celica

Chance: 35%

It can go either way. If they would want a Switch protagonist or a SoV character. She is at least more unique than Alm will ever be.

Want: 50%

Meh.

Andy

Chance: 10%

Dead series that haven't had a new game in years. Sorry Andy, you would need the ballot and that AT at this rate.

Want: 100%

He would be awesome. Tanks are needed for Smash.

Nominations: Sans x5

 

[Erureido]

Dang, I just missed the day. Well, I'll just leave a rating anyway.

Celica

Chance: 40%

Echoes is still the most relevant main series Fire Emblem game, and with her recent topping of the CYL poll and her inclusion in Fire Emblem Warriors as one of the only two non-SD/Awakening/Fates characters to make the roster, she has some credentials built up already. Only major issue I can think of is competition with other Fire Emblem characters, but I think she's one of the few with the better chances at the moment.

Want: 30%

I will admit that she does have some great moveset potential with her magic attacks mixed in with the sword attacks, but I'm mainly conflicted about her character. I know why people like her, but I'm one of those people questions her actions in Act 4 and has some issues with it (naive princess tropes aren't exactly my thing, and I've seen it done better in another FE character tbh). That said, I've got a number of Fire Emblem characters I prefer over her when it comes to Smash, even though I'm well aware said characters have a very little chance compared to her. Still, if Celica does make the cut, I won't be bothered that much.

------

Andy

Chance: 5%

Intelligent Systems is interested in making a new Advance Wars game, but at the time of Smash 5's development, we still haven't gotten word about this new game actually being made. Thus, relevancy is really holding him back at the moment, especially when IS currently seems more interested in Fire Emblem and Paper Mario these days.

Want: Abstain

Haven't played Advance Wars or been exposed to Andy that much to give a proper opinion on this matter.

------

Don’t worry y’all have until midnight tonight to post ur ratings, tomorrow, we will have some fun. Let’s just say I expect some detailed critiques.

Not sure if you'll answer this question, but is Layton among these surprise characters for tomorrow?

Because if he is, I'm not going to happy. I haven't even prepared my essay-long post for him yet.

------

Nominations

Assuming Layton isn't going to be rated tomorrow...

Professor Layton (Professor Layton): x5