Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[Kirby Dragons]

Chance: 0%
Want: 0%
Nominations: Urban Champion x5

 

[chemo]

Lyn

Chance: 10%

While she's an important Fire Emblem character, considering that FE 2018's protagonist probably has a reserved spot and Lyn missed her chances in Brawl and 4, I don't think she has a high chance of getting in now.

Want: 5%

I absolutely do not care for more Fire Emblem characters, though I recognize her importance.

Nomination:

Doomguy x5

 

[Garteam]

Lady of the Plains: Lyn
Chance: 5%

She's very popular, but that's really all she has going for her. She's the deuteragonist (or tritagonist, really depends on how you factor in Hector) of a 15 year old game that isn't super important outside of being the first Fire Emblem to see a world wide release. Given how many eggshells Fire Emblem is walking on post-Smash 4, I don't know if we'll even see all the unique Fire Emblem characters return, let alone get some new ones. If Fire Emblem does get a new character, she's in competition with a Gaiden rep or possibly even a FE Switch rep, depending on how that game's development is going.

Want: 0%

Probably the only character I don't want in Smash

She's my least favourite character from my favourite series of games. I never got her popularity, her story is the probably the worst tutorial I've ever played. It's handholdly (handholding? handholdish? you get what I mean) to the point where the game may as well be playing itself. It's also extremely text heavy, and it throws stuff at the player hours before it will become applicable to real gameplay. She's also an extremely bland character in my opinion. I've heard some defence for her regarding the racism and sexism she experiences in the story as giving her character a little more flavour, but that stuff is confined entirely to her short story and it's mostly subtext to begin with. Then, for the remainder of the game, she's basically confined to stating the obvious, agreeing with whatever Eliwood says, and bickering with Hector.

She's also a pretty mediocre unit in my experience. She's fast, which is always important in Fire Emblem, but that strength, defence, and constitution is a bit of a dumpster fire. She has to fish for critical hits to get kills if she uses an iron sword, or she has to dodge tank on semi-risky numbers if she uses a heavier weapon. At least Eliwood can take a few hits, along with getting a horse and lances at promotion. Plus, I've never seen what she could really bring to Smash as unique character. Marth's moveset is already based around the swordmaster class. The only thing I could see her doing that the roster doesn't have is the way she moves fast enough to clone herself in her critical hits. The only ways I could see her use that in a moveset is either as a final smash or a way to buff herself (ala Polnareff in JoJo All Star Battle), but that just doesn't seem like enough to justify a character.

I just don't really like Lyn. There's a million other Fire Emblem characters I'd have instead: Alm, Celica, Hector, Sigurd, Caeda, Ardan, etc.

Nomination: Robin x5

 

[Pennate]

Lyn:

Chance: Abstain

Want: Abstain

I don't know enough about this character to make a fair judgment.

Nominations:
Excitebiker x2
Ganon x2
Concept: Decloned Ganondorf x1

 

[colder_than_ice]

Lyn
Chance: 15% - Her surprise victory (Even if it was only 4% of the total vote in an overly crowded 791 person race, which in my opinion is pretty vague way to measure universal popularity) in the Choose your Legends ballot has definitely led Intelligent Systems to start promoting her more. It’s definitely possible that IS might recommend her to Sakurai. That being said I think it’s far more likely that they will push for a FE Switch rep or at the very least, an echoes or heroes rep. There is a LOT of competition in the Fire Emblem franchise for a new character so it’s difficult for me to give any of them a high score.
Want: 70% - One of my favourite lords.

Celica prediction: 9%
Andy prediction: 38%

Nominations: New story mode x5.

 

[Troykv]

ant: 0%

Probably the only character I don't want in Smash

She's my least favourite character from my favourite series of games. I never got her popularity, her story is the probably the worst tutorial I've ever played. It's handholdly (handholding? handholdish? you get what I mean) to the point where the game may as well be playing itself. It's also extremely text heavy, and it throws stuff at the player hours before it will become applicable to real gameplay. She's also an extremely bland character in my opinion. I've heard some defence for her regarding the racism and sexism she experiences in the story as giving her character a little more flavour, but that stuff is confined entirely to her short story and it's mostly subtext to begin with. Then, for the remainder of the game, she's basically confined to stating the obvious, agreeing with whatever Eliwood says, and bickering with Hector.

She's also a pretty mediocre unit in my experience. She's fast, which is always important in Fire Emblem, but that strength, defence, and constitution is a bit of a dumpster fire. She has to fish for critical hits to get kills if she uses an iron sword, or she has to dodge tank on semi-risky numbers if she uses a heavier weapon. At least Eliwood can take a few hits, along with getting a horse and lances at promotion. Plus, I've never seen what she could really bring to Smash as unique character. Marth's moveset is already based around the swordmaster class. The only thing I could see her doing that the roster doesn't have is the way she moves fast enough to clone herself in her critical hits. The only ways I could see her use that in a moveset is either as a final smash or a way to buff herself (ala Polnareff in JoJo All Star Battle), but that just doesn't seem like enough to justify a character.

Oh, a friend I have would have named a handholding-heavy adventure how something "condescending" (essencially, appealing to the "Lowest Common Denominator")... So yeah, I yeah, I get why you dislike her and her story (having to replay Lyn's NM is the only reasons I had never played Blazing Sword again; I found Sacred Stones and Binding Blade superior experiences gameplay-wise since the beginning to end).

Also, I sometimes feel that Lyn was designed to be appealing overall, no matter of which way you see her (even the game in Normal Mode is rigged to make her look powerful).

 

[FrozenRoy]

Chances: 22.5%

FE7 is fairly popular and Lyn is in turn fairly popular for FE7, so she has that going for her. But Fire Emblem is highly concentrated into Shadow Dragon, Awakening and Fates, which also sold way more units than most Fire Emblem games. Roy is the only one from the Lyn series of games to be in and was DLC in Smash 4 and mostly due to his Smash popularity than his Fire Emblem one (which is low). Normally, I would put her a bit lower, but I do feel her being a 2x AT, a Trophy and so on shows she is on Sakurai/Nintendo's radar here, as she is one of the only Smash trophies who is not from those games or from Echoes (which came out after). She did really well in the Fire Emblem Heroes poll, as well, which coulde bode well for DLC.

I feel there's a lot more likely characters to get in, specifically from Echoes, Celica (and/or Alm, but Celica is way better) in particular comes to mind as someone more likely. Chrom is a lot more likely. I would be less surprised if any of the Fates family members or Lissa got in compared to Lyn, too. It just feels like her time has kind of passed.

Want: 32%

I have yet to beat Fire Emblem 7, but I am 16 chapters in. So far, Lyn is inoffensive, but kind of boring: The prologue goes too fast to get a ton on her and really feels like it should have been a full game. So, I'm not particularly hype or against her character-wise. Moveset-wise, being another Fire Emblem sword user is a bit of a downside, as I feel someone like Hector, Camilla, Lissa, Takumi, Micaiah, Leo etc would be a lot more interesting moveset-wise there...but at the same time, Lyn's quickdraw style and good spritework mean that I could see a fairly solid, combo-based set being made for her that could be pretty fun. I'll put her on the same level as Takamaru: A character I think could have an interesting set but isn't a favorite, without any characterization plusses or minuses.

Prediction

Andy: 22%
Celica: 27%

Nomination

Medusa x5

 

[Garteam]

Oh, a friend I have would have named a handholding-heavy adventure how something "condescending" (essencially, appealing to the "Lowest Common Denominator")... So yeah, I yeah, I get why you dislike her and her story (having to replay Lyn's NM is the only reasons I had never played Blazing Sword again; I found Sacred Stones and Binding Blade superior experiences gameplay-wise since the beginning to end).

Also, I sometimes feel that Lyn was designed to be appealing overall, no matter of which way you see her (even the game in Normal Mode is rigged to make her look powerful).

Ya, I don't know if I'd call it condescending (although the fact the tutorial was allegedly designed for westerners does cause me to raise an eyebrow), the bigger culprit is it just being poorly thought out. It's kind of like a friend showing you a game that they're really passionate about but you've never played. They sit there talking your ear off about things in way more depth than needed, brings up mechanics before they really factor into gameplay, and sometimes they steal the controller because they're afraid you're going to screw something up. Tutorials were still fairly young at this point and a lot of games still held the NES attitude of "throw the player into the game with maybe a little plot exposition if you're overeager, and let them figure out things as they go". Nowadays, we have a better understanding of how to do a decent tutorial (keep things basic, let the player experiment organically, and do that in as few words as possible), but this stuff was still kinda new in 2003.

Lyn is definitely a character that is made to be appealing. She's basically the lord version of the most popular class in the series(at least back then, now I see people gravitate towards classes with strong gameplay like Paladins and Heroes), the Swordmaster. Plus, most lords tend to have a really strong early game, as options are very limited and axes are practically everywhere.

 

[FrozenRoy]

Is it just me or has the front page noms list stopped being updated?

 

[ForwardArrow]

Chances: 3%
Lyn is almost comically irrelevant in her own game, appearing basically as a tutorial character and not mattering to the actual plot of FE7, only being notable for being the first face you see in the game. I'm going to go more in detail as to why I think she's such a stupid choice to add in the next section, but if I have to be honest, she has won popularity polls and gotten a random appearence in FE Warriors despite that game not having any characters from outside in it that aren't her. That being said, her sole element distinguishing her from other FE characters is uh, a bow, which would likely be used about as much as Link's bow and not be nearly enough to give Sakurai actual moveset inspiration. I also like to think the backlash to all those FE characters actually hit Sakurai's ears and he's not going to just throw in more haphazardly, but you know, if that doesn't apply maybe my rating is optimistic. Still, Lyn is barely a factor in the singular game she appears in until the random crossovers later, has almost no noteworthy set potential, and is an addition to an already massively overcrowded franchise. I'd like to think that's enough that my prediction she will not be in comes true.

Want: 0%
Lyn isn't some absolutely awful character, I guess, because she barely is one. Her appearence is to guide players through the pathetically simplified tutorial of FE7, and I feel sorry for people who decided to get into the series from that route because I don't think FE7's story in general is great, but Lyn's story is so watered down its practically non-existent. Its just killing some bandits on a plane leading into killing some old general whose poisoned you're uncle, and while those things could be fine if there was any nuance to them there isn't, leaving it feeling both vapid and underwhelming. It really babies players through FE's mechanics more than they need to be, FE is not a complicated game.

You might argue that Lyn appears later in the game, and technically, that's not wrong. She appears to contribute literally nothing to the plot of the second half of the game, having basically no involvement in it beyond "I was there for the first story so sure". I think she might've helped track someone once if we're being generous. This is coupled with her skillset which is frankly, sword but fast. And we all know how fun it is when Smash balances around fast, look at "great" movesets like Sheik, Zero Suit Samus, and Sonic. Admittedly, I hate those more than most, but Lyn would be like that with even more range most likely, having nothing else of value to distinguish her from other FE characters.

This is on top of the whole 6 Fire Emblem thing, which was already a preposterous amount of representation for a series that doesn't need it. If anything I'm kind of hoping Smash 5 outright has less FE reps than Smash 4, especially if they continue to go the route of adding the extremely boring protagonists over and over. Lyn is the definition of a boring FE protagonist, and has a decent argument to be the actual worst representative the series could get due to her terrible set potential and role in her own series. Its honestly kind of baffling to me she's so popular, and honestly a bit worrying as it might prove a simple pretty face, a first impression, and no substance beyond that really IS what people care about in characters.

Nominations
Dark Samus x 5

 

[Troykv]

Lyn is definitely a character that is made to be appealing. She's basically the lord version of the most popular class in the series(at least back then, now I see people gravitate towards classes with strong gameplay like Paladins and Heroes), the Swordmaster. Plus, most lords tend to have a really strong early game, as options are very limited and axes are practically everywhere.

Oh yeah, I forgot that part... Swordmasters are the edgy class (in many ways actually, design-wise and gameplay-wise), and having a lord sharing that aesthetic definitely is appealing for the anime fanbase.

Want: 0%
Lyn isn't some absolutely awful character, I guess, because she barely is one. Her appearence is to guide players through the pathetically simplified tutorial of FE7, and I feel sorry for people who decided to get into the series from that route because I don't think FE7's story in general is great, but Lyn's story is so watered down its practically non-existent. Its just killing some bandits on a plane leading into killing some old general whose poisoned you're uncle, and while those things could be fine if there was any nuance to them there isn't, leaving it feeling both vapid and underwhelming. It really babies players through FE's mechanics more than they need to be, FE is not a complicated game.

You might argue that Lyn appears later in the game, and technically, that's not wrong. She appears to contribute literally nothing to the plot of the second half of the game, having basically no involvement in it beyond "I was there for the first story so sure". I think she might've helped track someone once if we're being generous. This is coupled with her skillset which is frankly, sword but fast. And we all know how fun it is when Smash balances around fast, look at "great" movesets like Sheik, Zero Suit Samus, and Sonic. Admittedly, I hate those more than most, but Lyn would be like that with even more range most likely, having nothing else of value to distinguish her from other FE characters.

This is on top of the whole 6 Fire Emblem thing, which was already a preposterous amount of representation for a series that doesn't need it. If anything I'm kind of hoping Smash 5 outright has less FE reps than Smash 4, especially if they continue to go the route of adding the extremely boring protagonists over and over. Lyn is the definition of a boring FE protagonist, and has a decent argument to be the actual worst representative the series could get due to her terrible set potential and role in her own series. Its honestly kind of baffling to me she's so popular, and honestly a bit worrying as it might prove a simple pretty face, a first impression, and no substance beyond that really IS what people care about in characters.

Nominations
Dark Samus x 5

I don't think I'm going to reduce my chance score, but you're making me reconsidering things about my want score... heh.

I enjoyed a lot more Radiant Dawn (I did three playthroughs in like only 6 months compared with the 6~ years since the last time I played Blazing Blade... Lyn's mode is just so boring to me).

 

[majora_787]

Chance: 1%.
Want: 0%.

Fire Emblem is a series with a lot of competition in its gigantic cast for playable characters. If we had to get one, it would most likely be one Nintendo benefits from. A character from a new or upcoming game. A character who's relatively popular, but provides unique gameplay opportunities. If we got Lyn, a character with nearly no purpose and no unique qualities from a mediocre game from the early 2000's, over a character who fulfills even ONE of the other two points I would definitely be disappointed. I might change my mind with regards to post-release DLC if they remake FE6 or FE7 and have Lyn exist in those games in some form other than a generic swordswoman and stock waifu character.

Nomination:
Dark Samus x5

 

[Leafeon523]

THE EMEMY:
Chance: 2%

So here we have (THE ENEMY). (THE ENEMY) may be relevant in mainstream Fire Emblem, but there's over a dozen games to consider. Considering the huge amount of Fire Emblem characters already in the roster, adding (THE ENEMY) wouldn't really be justifiable. There's already so many characters to draw people into newer Fire Emblem, and even if (THE ENEMY) had a totally unique play style it wouldn't contribute much. In terms of older Fire Emblem, it wouldn't do Nintendo much good to send people swarming to download ROMs so that they could play (THE ENEMY)'s game. We also already have Roy, the protagonist of the game that IS has shown the most interest in remaking. A FE switch character has a good shot, but I can't really see anyone else making it. It's not impossible, but at this point (THE ENEMY) should just stick to hoping for FEH seasonal costumes.


Want: 80%
Lyn's cool and all, but we need best lord. I used my atrocious MS paint skills to illustrate this.

https://ibb.co/k5Xgun

Predicting Celica at 19%
Andy at 8.2%

Nominating Impa x5

 

[Fenriraga]

Hoo boy. Wasn't looking forward to today. Anyway...

Chances: 20%

Barring Fire Emblem characters who are not from the most recent entries (Being anyone from Echoes or the as of yet properly revealed Switch entry) I feel like Lyn likely has the best chances of any FE oldbie. Her relevant game has long since passed, but numbers don't lie: she is one of, if not the, most popular character in the series who isn't already in Smash. And I believe Sakurai at least recognizes that. However, with factors like relevancy, FE fatigue and some other aspects, she's by no means a guarantee. She has as many things going for her as she has going against her.

Want: 100%
*Sigh*

Okay. Let's all take a deep breath real quick. Cool?

Cool.

Alright. So for whatever reason, I'm going to be going over the various arguments against Lyn so that I can feel better about myself or something.
You don't have to agree with me on some of these points. This is more so I can kinda explain where a lot of the love for Lyn comes from.

"Her tutorial is horrible and her story is boring. She was only relevant in the prolouge, was useless as a unit after, and she's overrated."

Okay, so... Yeah. I can see where people come from with some of this. FE7's prolouge, comparatively to other entries, is on the weaker side.

But here's the thing: it's FE7.

This was the first world-wide release of Fire Emblem. This was Awakening before Awakening, but rather than bringing FE out of obscurity, 7 brought the series out of down right irrelevance in the eye of everyone who doesn't live in Japan.

Is the tutorial overbearing and too long? Yes. But it was the world's first proper exposure to Fire Emblem. Of course they were going to take things a bit slower for a game series so tactical. If it wasn't your first FE game, it's definitely a pain. If it was though, and it was for many like myself, it eased me in just as much as it needed to for me to understand everything.

And guess who's face was the first we saw upon starting the game proper?

Lyn is kind of the worldwide counterpart to Marth in a lot of ways. She's the character many people's journey into this series started with. THAT is why she's so popular.

Now in regards to her story, again, I can see people's problem. It's not an awful story by any means, but compared against the campains after hers, yeah, it's certainly the weakest.

But again... It's FE7.

It was simple. Very simple. It kinda needed to be. It was enough motivation for me and others to keep on fighting. We didn't need to learn about the problems that plauged the world, or learn every detail of the war, or Fire Emblem's structure itself. Lyn's father she never knew she had is in danger. Take this magical sword and go re-unite the plainswoman with her nobility. That was enough for me. Plus, Lyn is very likeable. Perhaps a bit bland, but still very likeable.

Again, people seem to overlook Lyn's status as being the first character people worldwide were introduced to, outside of Marth and Roy for obcious reasons. That's why she means so much to a lot of FE fans, myself included. Of course I love Hector and Eliwood too, but Lyn just eased me into everything. Did other games and characters do it better? Yes. But they weren't the FIRST to do it.

That's why she means a lot to me. Plus, people SERIOUSLY sleep on her swordskills. As has been shown, her sword style is very different from many of the other Lords in the series.

"She would just swing a sword differently. Boring."

Yes, just like Little Mac just Punched people differently. Or how Rosalina used magic differently. What's your point? You'd be surprised how much that can change a character. And Lyn has a very intetesting style that is separate from almost every Lord in the series.

"Weh she's just an advocate for women being strong and never shuts up about not underestimating her because of her gender"

Okay first off, why is that a bad thing? Secondly, literally all of the survivors of the tribe she grew up with died because they refused to listen to her due to her gender. I repeat: her entire tribe, the closest thing to a family she had growing up, and everything it meant to her perished because she had boobies and that didn't make her important enough to listen to. So yeah, she's understandably a bit sensitive about people taking her lightly.

"We have too many FE characters as is."

I agree. So we cut some and make room for others. I don't see how her or other FE characters getting in means other characters don't get cut.

She just means a lot to me. She's the face of pre-modern, post Japan Fire Emblem. And I would really, REALLY love to see her get the treatment she deserves along side the likes of Marth and Ike.

...And if not, at least keep her as an assist. But update her voice. Good god what the actual hell was her voice in Brawl and 4? She's 15 at the youngest, 18 at the latest in FE7, why the actual hell does she sound like she's in her 30s? Or 40s even?

Anyway, Geno x5.

 

[WingedSupernova]

Lyn
Chance - 4%
She's been an assist trophy, but there's not much else you can do with her move set that would be unique enough to constitute as a new fighter. Sakurai has already expressed hesitancy when it comes to adding in characters that he doesn't think would be unique enough, what with Chrom and such.
Want - 2%
Not big on another Fire Emblem sword user, even if she is a very good strong female character in her game. They'd have to pull something magical out of their bag of creativity in order for me to want her in the game.

 

[Xenigma]

Semi-related note: anyone here that enjoys a good button masher should check out Fire Emblem Warriors. Surprisingly fun spin-off that plays off the Fire Emblem theme better than it has any right to, and Lyn in particular is a blast to play as.

Lyn
Chance - 10%
On one hand, Fire Emblem has a lot of characters in Smash, perhaps even too many. On the other hand, Lyn enjoys huge popularity among FE fans, has appeared in Smash as an Assist Trophy, and notably topped the first FE Heroes popularity poll. Perhaps most notable is that Fire Emblem Switch has yet to be fully revealed, so with her only real competition being Celica from Shadows of Valentia, there's no better time for Lyn to sneak into the roster than right now. I wouldn't expect her, but she has a credible chance.
Want - 75%
Not my ideal Fire Emblem character, but a great choice if Sakurai went for it and one of the better female options out there.

Nominations - Lucina x5

Celica Predictions - 7.7% Chance, 34% Want
Judging by some of the Lyn ratings today, this could be rough.

Andy Predictions - 9.5% Chance, 44% Want
Where is my new Advance Wars, Nintendo? WHERE IS IT?!?

 

[Zerp]

Lyn
Chances: 16%
Lots of competition within Fire Emblem and there's a trend of adding the most recent lord for promotional reasons so that character will likely have more priority than her, her only real shot is if Fire Emblem gets more than 1 new character, but it's Fire Emblem so I expect to get 2 or more characters, so I see it as a realistic possibility.
Want: Negative 100% (Count it as 0% I guess)
I kinda feel bad being so opposed to Lyn because I understand there's a lot of people who like the character, but I REALLY don't want to see any Fire Emblem newcomers (I'm not delusional though, I know it's probably going to happen lol), heck, I'd be angry even if they cut some of the other Fire Emblem characters to make room for newcomers, that'd still take more dev time than just porting the veterans over and I'm sick of so much priority going into Fire Emblem over everything else it's size, Kirby got no new characters last game, so did Donkey Kong, so did Metroid, so did Zelda, but Fire Emblem got 4/3 new characters, I would have preferred if they tried spreading out the love a little better. I expect more of them next game, but I'm not going to be happy about it when it inevitably happens.

Nominations: Dark Matter Blade x 5

 

[andimidna]

Lyn:
I love Rekka no Ken. I actually played Lyn and Eliwood’s stories on a GBA emulator on my phone after loving Marth in Brawl. Marth and ZSS were the characters I gravitated towards in Brawl. I even went back and played Hector’s story a year later as Awakening was releasing, which I then bought a 3ds for. I loved Awakening, and was ecstatic for the release of Fates. Basically, I’m saying I like this character and this series, but I don’t think she’s the right choice for a playable smash newcomer. Between the Mani Katti or Sol Katti and her bows on top of her unique crit animations, however, this isn’t what the FE roster is Smash needs. I think it’s better to move forward, since we’re constantly getting new protagonists that are getting promoted. Not only that, but there’s a lot of competition in terms of FE characters, and we may not get one, as a result of the complaints. If we were gonna make a unique character from a past game over popularity, they could go back to Fates for Azura, since she was a face of that game. There’s also Celica (& Alm) from Valentia. Anna and Tiki are still around too left unrepresented as anything more than alt color inspirations and trophies. Really, FE has been doing a ton lately, with Heroes and Warriors too. I do think these spin off games give credence to go back into the series and pick a old, impactful character for their popularity. However, my only gripe is yes, she wields a sword. She could be used to promote new games just as well, so I don’t think she’s irrelevant at all. Howevee, I can’t say her moveset potential seems like it’s enough to break those barriers in her way. She just doesn’t seem like the kind of character that is best suited as playable. Also, she doesn’t seem like the right pick to finally represent the pair up mechanic, since it was more a “hide” mechanic back then, which isn’t how the games play anymore. She obviously deserves the assist, but I’m just not able to see the promotion. If she was requested enough, they might be able to find ways to make her interesting. I do think making a whole bow based character as her seems to misrepresent her. I also feel as though Takamaru could be the technical stylistic swordsman like Marth or Lyn but better honestly. They could have her on horseback, but that seems like misrepresentation too. So despite her popularity, I’m gonna lean against this. Also, I do not see another FE clone happening again, ESPECIALLY not another Marth clone. Not remotely.
Chance: 10%
Want: 75%
I have a lot of good memories about her character(and basically everyone except bland Eliwood), but I’m more interested in the potential of Anna and Azura. Also, characters like Tiki, Celica, Veronica/ Kiran, or the Switch protagonist(s) have their chance to shine maybe.

Celica prediction: 23%
Almdy prediction: 14%

Midna seems like she’s on her way already, so how about
x3 Veronica
x1 Azura
And, since Hayley Kiyoko’s album finally dropped, here’s one for everyone’s favorite Nintendo lesbian grandma
x1 Impa

 

[BandanaWaddleDee]

Lyn
Chance: 5%
Want: 20%

Andy Prediction: 16.32%
Celica Prediction: 10.11%

Nominations
Decloned Dark Pit x5

 

[Erureido]

Lyn

Chance: 10%

She is easily one of the most popular and iconic Fire Emblem characters out there, who was also one of the only two non SD/Awakening/Fates FE characters to be added in Fire Emblem Warriors. However, the Fire Emblem newcomers that tend to be chosen are the main characters from the newest games, and Lyn doesn't really fit that criteria since her game was released a while back. She's also been an Assist Trophy for two Smash games in a row, and even though there's a chance she could break out of that AT curse, I'm mostly doubtful she will considering how the situation is looking for her right now.

Want: 0%

Admittedly, I am yet to play FE7 (I want to; I even downloaded it from the WiiU eshop, but I don't have the time to play it at the moment since I have a number of video games I need to finish before I get to it), but I've known about her through Smash, Heroes, and Warriors. She has some interesting moveset potential with that katana of hers, but beyond that... I'm not interested in seeing her as a full-fledged Smash fighter. There's a good number of Fire Emblem characters I am more interested in when it comes to Smash.

------

Predictions

Celica (Fire Emblem): 15.56%

Echoes is still the most recent Fire Emblem game, and her appearance in Warriors + her recent success in the lat CYL poll also do her favors, but the prospect of FE16 will likely keep her scores low.

Andy (Advance Wars): 7.71%

His series will need that revival if he were to be considered.

------

Nominations

Professor Layton (Professor Layton): x5

 

[ZealousGamer]

Lyn

Chances 15%: Not very likely but not impossible.

Want 25%: I'm not big on more Fire Emblem swordsmen/swordswomen.

Nominations:
Jibanyan 2x
Midna 2x
Skull Kid 1x

 

[Nimbostratus]

Gotta hustle again. Sigh.

Lyn
Chance- 10%
Want- 25%

Celica Prediction- 33%
Andy Prediciton- 16%

Nominations:
Ashley x5

 

[Hinata]

Good ol' Lyndis.

Chance: 25%

She's been an Assist Trophy for 2 games now, so while that proves that she's at least on Sakurai's radar, it doesn't bode well for her, as I can easily see Sakurai just being content to keep her in that role, and expect the Lyn fans to be pacified that way, since she's technically still in the game.

Want: 80%

Far from my most-wanted newcomer, but if she were to show up as playable, you sure as hell wouldn't see me complaining. She seems like she could be a really fun character, and I would love to see what Sakurai could do with her. The Project M moveset for her was amazing, and I bet Sakurai could pull off something similar.

 

[Opossum]

I've got a big post ready for when the new day starts.

 

[Organization XIII]

Chance: 10%
She is the second most popular FE character but in Smash FE doesn't go for popular they go for recent.

Want: 40%
She's cool and I like her high-speed style. Not to mention her game is good. Sadly there are character I'd much rather see in Smash even in her own series.

Noms: Tethu X5

 

[AwesomeAussie27]

Lyn

Chance: 18%

She may be popular, but she's not longer relevant to the franchise sadly. Not to mention she can compete with the Switch Lord, the Echoes duo, and loads of other Fire Emblem characters. Not to mention the oversaturation we have. Plus the bloody Assists Trophy.

Want: 100%

She is still be the best girl and I've wanted her for a long time for her swift swordsmanship.

Prediction

Chance for Andy: 6%
Celica: 28%

Nominations: Tsubasa Oribe x5

 

[ChrysanthosVice]

Lyn
Chances: 95%
As Little Mac has proven, Assist Trophies definitely can become fighters. Plus, she's one of the most popular Fire Emblem characters. Very good chance, I think.
Want: 90%
I love Fire Emblem. But, I will be the first to admit that I'd be more open to other Assist Trophies, like Ashley or Isabelle or Phosphora.

 

[a smart guy]

Is it just me or has the front page noms list stopped being updated?

You're unfortunately right. The person who was updating it, @PhilosophicAnimal got busy with real life, so it's been out of date for a couple of days. Luckily, I'm here to help. I took his nomination list, and updated it with all the nominations that happened in the days afterwards. I would keep doing this until he returns, but I'm unfortunately going out of town for Easter this weekend, so it might be a couple of days til the next update.

Spoiler: NOMINATIONS

Nominations List

Celica x 240
Andy x 224
Midna x210
Dillon x 196
Professor Layton x 175
Waluigi x 170
Chibi Robo x 169
Shovel Knight x 168
Concept : Zelda Newcomer x 167
Decidueye x 166
Shulk x 165
Marx x 165
Eggman x 162
Doomguy x 146
Lucina x 140
Anna (Fire Emblem) x 138
Bomberman x 138
Jibanyan x136
Phoenix Wright x 130
Geno x 129
Skull Kid x128
Concept: No Cuts x 126
Banjo Kazooie x 121
Lucas x 120
Sora x 113
Lana (Hyrule Warriors) x113
Micaiah x 112
Concept: veteran character artworks recycled from Smash 3DS/Wii U x98
Dark Matter Blade x97
Snip & Clip (Snipperclips) x92
Concept: New story mode x90
Arle Nadja x90
Agumon x90
Tethu (Ever Oasis) x85
Sans (Undertale) x85
Elma x83
Mewtwo x 83
Blue Bowser x80
Hades x77
2B x 73
Travis Touchdown x 73
Henry Fleming (Code Name STEAM) x72
Funky Kong x71
Tsubasa Oribe x70
Urban Champion x68
Impa x 67
Pyra/Mythra (without Rex) x66
Ashley (WarioWare) x65
Kamek x63
Excitebiker x62
Qbby (from Boxboy) x60
Black Shadow x59
Concept: Decloned Dark Pit x59
Labo Related Character x 56
Lycanroc x55
Ken Masters Alt Costume for Ryu x55
Mike Jones (StarTropics) x50
Roy x48
Ryu Hayabusa x45
Music: Final Destination (Ver. 2) x45
Concept - Skyrim representation x37
Dark Samus x 35
Ganon (not Ganondorf) x35
Concept: New Mother Character x35
Simon Belmont x35
Neku x 34
Concept: Decloned Ganondorf x33
Azura x 33
Masked Link x31
Concept: Fire Emblem Spear User x30
Octolings x30
Klonoa x30
Mipha x29
Parabo and Satebo x29
Lloyd Irving x27
Isabelle x26
Fawful x26
Hector (Fire Emblem) x 26
Returning game mode: Smash Run x25
Takumi (FE Fates) x25
Susie (Kirby) x25
Sophitia x25
Concept Indie Character x 22
Style Savvy Rep x 22
Doshin the Giant x22
Medusa x 21
Scizor x 21
Palutena x 21
Arcade Rabbit x 20
Concept: Historical Nintendo character (Similar to Game and Watch or R.O.B.) x20
Poipole (Pokemon) x17
Zeraora x16
Concept: Advance Wars CO x16
Thwomp x15
Concept: Octopath Traveller Character x15
Tiki (Fire Emblem) x15
Wonder Red (The Wonderful 101) x15
Robin x 14
Lip (Panel de Pon) x14
9-Volt (WarioWare) x14
Petey Piranha x13
Concept: Custom Moves Return x12
Nia and Dromarch x12
Mallo (Pushmo) x 12
Bayonetta x12
Concept: Sonic Mania Stage x12
Concept: Capcom Character x12
Dragonite x11
Tingle x11
Sylux x11
Greninja x11
Cloud x11
Linkle x10
Prince Fluff x10
Viridi x10
Katrielle Layton x9
Starfy x9
Concept: F-Zero Newcomer x9
Mimikyu x 9
Pac-Man x9
Balloon Fighter x9
Concept: Canon Bowser/DK/Diddy voice clips x8
Scorpion (Mortal Kombat) x7
Ray (Custom Robo) x7
Sonic x 7
Incineroar x7
Tails x 7
Veronica (Fire Emblem) x6
Toad x6
Fjorm (Fire Emblem Heroes) x6
Zangoose x6
Concept: Decloned Lucina x5
Spyro x5
Galacta Knight x5
Morad and Brighid x5
Master Chief x 5
Steve (Minecraft) x5
Ninten x 5
Concept: Mega Man 11 stage x5
Concept: Return of transformation characters x5
Slippy Toad x5
Concept - Melee/Brawl style Classic mode x5
Ayane x5
Alm (Fire Emblem) x 5
Concept: Metroid: Samus Returns Stage x5
Asuka x5
Abraham Lincoln (Codename STEAM) x5
Masked Man (Mother 3) x5
Gooey (Kirby Series) x5
Ayumi Tachibana x5
Itsuki Aoi x5
Concept: Shin Megami Tensei Protagonist x5
Monita (NintendoLand) x5
Cross/Rook/Avatar (Xenoblade Chronicles X) x5
Toon Link x5
Yooka & Laylee x5
Caeda x5
Concept: Charizard Remerged with Pokemon Trainer+complete movesets x5
Django (Boktai) x5
Hyness (Kirby Star Allies) x4
Rick the Hamster x4
Shadow the Hedgehog x4
Ghirahim x4
Cranky Kong x4
Mii Fighters x 4
KOS-MOS x4
Geese Howard (Fatal Fury/ King of Fighters) x3
Mario RPG representation (Including Paper Mario and M&L) x3
Poochy (Yoshi series) x3
Corrin x 3
Porky Minch x3
Wii Fit Trainer x3
Specter Knight x3
Solaire (Dark Souls) x3
Tom Nook x3
Dragonborn x3
Tetra x2
Mach Rider x2
King Boo x2
Vaati x2
Nightmare (SoulCalibur) x2
Joker (Persona 5) x2
Concept: The Sims character x2
Toon Zelda x2
Toadette x2
Jack Frost (Shin Megami Tensei) x2
Endou Mamoru x2
Tora and Poppi x2
Garon x1
Rosalina & Luma x1
Bowser Jr. x1
Black Mage (Final Fantasy) x1
Knuckles the Echidna x1
Dark Pit x1
New Mii Fighter types (concept) x 1
Harry (Teleroboxer) x 1
Sheik x1
Concept: Snipperclips representation x1
Undertale Representation x1
Revali x1
Daruk x1
Urbosa x1
Jack (Harvest Moon) x1
Sol Badguy x1
Kyo Kusanagi x1
Leo (FE Fates) x1
Ryoma (FE Fates) x1
Falco x1
Vivian (Paper Mario) x1
Mallow (SMRPG) x1
Concept: Playable Master/Crazy Hand x1
Blastoise x1
Alph x1
Marshal (Rhythm Heaven) x1
Tapu Koko x1
Bubbles (Clu Clu Land) x1
Hyper Light Drifter x1
Dark Falz x1
Silvally x1
Sable Prince x1
Hat Kid (A Hat in Time) x1
Sukapon x1
Slime (Dragon Quest) x1
Gengar x1
Captain Syrup x1
Concept: Tetris Stage or Assist Trophy x1
Concept: Ms.Pac Man alt costume for Pac Man x1

 

[zipzapsparkle]

Oh my god I’ve been nominating Waluigi all this time thinking he was way down lol

 

[Yomi's Biggest Fan]

Lyn

Chance: 10%

Assist Trophy? Check

Too much Fire Emblem competition? Check

Lack of relevancy? Check

Too many Fire Emblem characters unless cuts happen? Check

The only think Lyn has going for her is her popularity and that won't be enough to help her.

Want: 80%

She's cool, I don't mind.

Prediction for Andy: 9%
Prediction for Celica: 34%

Nominations: Sans x5

 

[DaUsername]

Lyn
Chance: 30%
Want: 15%

Andy prediction :10%
Cecilia prediction: 30%
Noms: Mike Jones x5

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Lyndis

30% Chance

I was gonna rate her lower, but there is a lot of evidence to her popularity. I feel that the moment a FE 7 remake happens, she is in for sure. But I don’t see it as coming until 2020 let’s say. So we have to rate lyn right now.

Lyn has a lot going for her in fan demand. She is the most popular fire emblem female. She possibly did well on the ballot as a result. She is a popular character.

That being said, she suffers from a lack of relevance and being stuck as an AT. Now I feel promotion from AT shouldn’t hold someone back too much. But her lack of relevancy hurts her a lot. FE warriors helps a good bit, but it might not be enough.

80% Want

A cool character, I would love to see her work. It also means that we might get more fe7 love which is nice.


Nominating no cuts x 5


Day over, see y’all in the morning

 

[Opossum]

Reminder that Day 23 hasn't started yet so no one should submit scores for Celica or Andy yet.

 

[bksbestbwoy]

Lyn

Chance: 50% (Genuine Coinflip)

Regardless of the loud bemoaning of the possibility of new characters from this franchise heard the world over, Lyn is second only to Ike in terms of worldwide recognition of Fire Emblem characters and both are over Marth, the first lord, as per numerous polls sourced for elements in Fire Emblem Heroes. Enjoying a recurring position as an Assist Trophy character also ensured that despite once being a fever dream of a cool new Brawl entrant, she would eternally be in fans minds. The only thing holding her back is the idea of a seven man FE cast when many characters still don't have their main second or trid entrant and Sakurai aiming for a better balance of old and new faces. That being said, you best believe Lyn is high up the list in terms of FE potentials or at least a looming "in case of emergency" option.

Want: 90%

Takamaru definitely stole her lunch as the potential iai character over the last decade and change because new franchise + the history he brings to the table and after Smash 4, not over saturating the roster with one franchise, but honestly? In an ideal world we'd get both. Either way, there's a sword play niche that isn't filled yet and I wanna see it happen in my lifetime.

Edit: oh really? i had this typed up but didn't hit submit before I stepped away...

 

[Ura]

I want to be able to do a big write up for Andy though I don't think i'll be able to get it done in time. Also not feeling great right now. I'll see what I can do.

Reminder that Day 23 hasn't started yet so no one should submit scores for Celica or Andy yet.

And also a reminder that anyone who makes a Toy Story reference in their posts will get a wrench up their bum-bum.

Well not really but still lol.

 

[VexTheHex]

Whoops, read this on my last break before heading home, didn't catch the day ended when I got home to post. Sorry about that! I'll leave my opinion but took off the scores.

Lyn
Chance
Being popular doesn't save her from being old and yet another sword user for Fire Emblem which even Sakurai commented had a high amount of characters.
Want
Being a woman with green hair doesn't save her from being yet another sword user for Fire Emblem. I'd prefer axes, lance, mage, or laguz if we got another Fire Emblem rep. I didn't play her game as I only played Ike's two games, so I don't even have that connection to her as Ike was my introduction to the series with his two games. (yes two, Micaiah was a terrible lead and her section of the game was awful compared to Ike's along with most of the units she recruited into her army like Heather and Fiona being terrible)

I still would appreciate at least that her fans would be happy. I'd also take her over the Gender-bent Marth or Micaiah for sure.

 

[Skyblade12]

Chance-15%
There’s a lot that goes into this, and a lot of things that I could be interpreting completely wrong, but I’ll explain.
Popularity: Lyn is the most popular Fire Emblem character. The “oh, but Ike” argument doesn’t hold a lot of water for me, because people could vote in that poll up to 12 times, and a character with multiple choices to vote for them is more likely to have multiple votes dumped into him. I’m guessing most of the votes for Radiant Dawn Ike are from people who already voted for Path of Radiance Ike.
What’s more, Lyn has evergreen status. Corrin dropped from #5 in female characters to #9 in between the two CYL polls, even with the removal of previous winners and a presence in Smash. Why? Echoes. “Muh relevancy” characters typically are flash-in-the-pan popularity that doesn’t last once the next new shiny thing comes out. Which is why I think Celica’s chances are not as high as many people may expect. Intelligent Systems has referred to Lyn as “the Marth of the West”, due to her evergreen popularity and status as beloved of fans as being their introduction to the series. Which puts her directly in line with the “Nintendo All Stars” who supposedly make up Smash’s cast.
That said, while Intelligent Systems has known of her popularity, they did underestimate it. The reason we got the top 4 CYL characters instead of the top 2 is because IS was so sure Lucina would win the women’s bracket that they had already designed and gotten the artwork for Brave Lucina, and didn’t want it to go to waste.
Nevertheless, Lyn is popular, and it feels as though her popularity is growing. One of the most powerful and popular characters in FE Heroes. Arguably the most powerful character in Warriors (and tied for having the most Support conversations). I have not seen any backlash to her inclusions or promotions, and she’s still maintaining a huge fan base. I think that she has the popularity for it, unquestionably.
Relevancy: I think she’s shortchanged a lot in this category. Yes, her original game was an old one for the GBA. But Fire Emblem has spinoffs now, and she’s been heavily featured in both of them. This again helps with her “face of the franchise” role that she is starting to fill in the West.
What’s more, I’m very hesitant to declare her a dead character. The director of Echoes mentioned wanting to do a remake of Binding Blade as well. And if the series is going to return to Elibe, Intelligent Systems won’t be leaving Lyn behind, she has too much appeal to the fan base. Even ignoring potential ties to Lilina or Sue, I would be shocked if she wasn’t dragged into that game as a powerful late game prepromoted unit. Let alone the potential for doing a Blazing Sword Echoes as well. So I actually think that she has more of a future and potential for future relevancy than most of the FE cast at this point.
Fire Emblem: This is an odd series. A cast nearly as large as Pokémon, and an even longer history, how they’ll pull characters is hard to say. They could continue with the Pokémon style of “pull character from most recent game”. But I think they may step away from that. Not only did Corrin’s DLC not do great, but Corrin’s popularity has not surged because of Smash, and Corrin fell lower in the polls after Echoes released. Smash typically plays heavy on nostalgia and lasting character All-Star appeal, and I think Corrin shows that can’t necessarily be forced. Robin and Lucina have more appeal from being from the series’ most popular game, introducing a ton of new fans, and the game that revived the series. But Fates is fading, and I’d argue that Corrin (as much as I enjoy the character and the play style) does not deserve the role in Smash the way Robin, Lucina, and Marth do. Lyn, however, does have that lasting appeal, and I think that might give her an edge.
If they even decide to add another character from FE. Which they may not. It’s hard to say. Plus, she does use a sword, and does not have the uniqueness of the new characters from Smash 4.

Want - 60%
Lyn is my favorite character in gaming. So, I would not at all mind her being in the game. But I’m not sure she’s needed. She’s a great AT, and that’s satisfactory for me. There are a lot of Fire Emblem characters, and there are a lot of more unique characters I’d like to see in first. I’ll be happy either way.

 

[PK_Wonder]

Friendly reminder to use spoiler tags for late game story content in Echoes tomorrow if you absolutely have to bring it up for some reason. (or for any game that's only been out for a year ish)

 

[Quetzal77]

Intelligent Systems has referred to Lyn as “the Marth of the West”, due to her evergreen popularity and status as beloved of fans as being their introduction to the series. Which puts her directly in line with the “Nintendo All Stars” who supposedly make up Smash’s cast.

Relevancy: I think she’s shortchanged a lot in this category. Yes, her original game was an old one for the GBA. But Fire Emblem has spinoffs now, and she’s been heavily featured in both of them. This again helps with her “face of the franchise” role that she is starting to fill in the West.
What’s more, I’m very hesitant to declare her a dead character. The director of Echoes mentioned wanting to do a remake of Binding Blade as well. And if the series is going to return to Elibe, Intelligent Systems won’t be leaving Lyn behind, she has too much appeal to the fan base. Even ignoring potential ties to Lilina or Sue, I would be shocked if she wasn’t dragged into that game as a powerful late game prepromoted unit. Let alone the potential for doing a Blazing Sword Echoes as well. So I actually think that she has more of a future and potential for future relevancy than most of the FE cast at this point.

I love the way you phrased that first point. Absolutely true. Especially with Smash 5, there were a lot of newcomers that were just "favour of the month". There's an argument to be made in favour of that type of character getting added to smash, but originally this series began as a gathering of Nintendo All Stars. It would be nice to return to a focus on that for this game's newcomers. True All Stars that are missing, and Lyn is definitely one of them.

The second point I quoted is a very good one, but it may not matter much until said remakes are concrete. For all we know the next one will be FE4.

 

[Skyblade12]

I love the way you phrased that first point. Absolutely true. Especially with Smash 5, there were a lot of newcomers that were just "favour of the month". There's an argument to be made in favour of that type of character getting added to smash, but originally this series began as a gathering of Nintendo All Stars. It would be nice to return to a focus on that for this game's newcomers. True All Stars that are missing, and Lyn is definitely one of them.

The second point I quoted is a very good one, but it may not matter much until said remakes are concrete. For all we know the next one will be FE4.

Oh, agreed. It is just speculation. But at least I can speculate on her future. There is potential there. On the other hand, I don’t see similar potential in Celica or Alm. Their game has been remade already, and I don’t see them having as successful a role in overall series promotion. Once FE Switch comes out, I think they’ll drop in popularity rather swiftly, and never see a recurrence. It’s possible that Lyn could also never see another game release, but I consider it far less likely.

Nevertheless, I did give her a low score, considering the points in her favor. There’s too much we don’t know. How many new characters will we get? Will we get any new ones from FE? Etcetera. I don’t consider her likely. I just think she has a lot in her favor.



And sorry I missed the day timer. I thought I had until midnight my time, not an hour earlier, and was typing out the post still. I hope it counts.