Haven't been around in a while, but I felt I needed to put this up. I'll talk about both together though, since they really overlap a lot.
Bethesda's got a few properties, but there are really three major ones: DOOM (acquired from id*), Fallout (acquired from Interplay), and The Elder Scrolls (homegrown). It's a decently large publisher, getting entire dedicated E3 conferences to itself, but it's not a console maker like Sony or Microsoft. I suppose if anything, they're on the level of someone like Ubisoft.
*okay, technically id is a subsidiary of Zenimax, so DOOM isn't technically Bethesda Studios like the other two are, but 'Bethesda's' E3 conferences are really Bethesda Softworks which is the parent of Zenimax.
Now as to their association with Nintendo? That's a lot less evident. Bethedsa's really not had anything to do with Nintendo until the Switch released. Yes, DOOM was on the SNES, Doom II made it to GBA, and DOOM 64 was on the N64. All of that was before acquisition. After acquisition, DOOM 2016 and Eternal were multiplat, including the Switch. TES had nothing to do with Nintendo until Skyrim got ported to the Switch, but it really was put pretty high on a pedestal there. Still, that's about it for the franchise, aside from the mobile spinoff Blades that released last month and the card game spinoff Legends which has its multiplat console ports sitting in limbo. Fallout has the least presence on Nintendo, with only one mobile spinoff (Shelter) on Switch and that's it.
Or at least that
was it, until Monday.
So first, the candidates:
Doomguy's got a lot of history, and is one of the defining series of the FPS genre. It's practically a meme to
run DOOM on literally any device. It's also got an enormous fanbase that can easily shout down most others that get discussed here. But that's also a very localized fanbase - DOOM's very heavy on the 'Western (American)'-favored ideas of blood, gore, and being a total badass. DOOM also has the benefit of recency, as Eternal just released, spawning a
new meme with Isabelle since AC:NH released the same day. Of course, there's also the interview...but that could also be NDA speak...
Dovahkiin's only from a single game, and it's an RPG that's close to a decade old. However, it's not as if TES isn't groundbreaking itself - every other RPG (and even some other games, like Zelda: BotW) is open world
because of the influence of Skyrim. It should be noted that the
Switch announcement trailer used mainly two games to show off its capabilities: BotW, and... Skyrim. Heck, Skyrim's Swithc port even threw in Zelda BotW gear and gave an extra customization so you could make a playable character who looked like Link. It's also not like Skyrim (and the franchise) isn't
also a fountain of memes as well. And based on the most accurate reporting from Wikipedia (/s), while the
DOOM franchise is coming in over 17 million sales across all of its main series games, Skyrim
alone is
reporting upwards of 22-30 million sales worldwide, never mind the rest of the franchise. Also worth noting is that Skyrim is the
first Western game to have gotten a perfect score on Famitsu, something only 25 other games (and one other Western game, GTA:V have done)
As to what each could bring to Smash:
There are several shooter characters in Smash, but none which hail from an FPS. DOOM's also got loads of options for different weapons that could be used. He would probably have to be toned down significantly to get in - it's not impossible since Bayo and Joker were able to be toned down, but even Pete Hines
admits that the violence and blood is pretty well linked with DOOM as a theme. Again, there is a massive Western fanbase for Doomguy which has been active since DOOM 16's release on Switch, and it's only grown with DOOM Eternal's announcement and release. There may be some issues with religious themes involved in using 'hell' as a location, which Nintendo is eager to avoid, but Simon/Richter have shown that things like crosses or holy water are acceptable. His closest counterpart is probably Samus in terms of abilities and playstyle, and he also conflicts heavily in terms of look and theme of 'futuristic super-armored marine' with Master Chief as well.
I'm not well-versed in DOOM as a franchise, so I can't say what could be likely in terms of content in Smash, but monstrous bosses like Giga Bowser, Ganon, and Rathalos would fit well, as would the idea of Dracula and evil there. He's pretty well known for moves like the chainsaw that Kirby could easily take as a neutral special, and he's got a pretty obvious helmet.
Dovahkiin has a few more things keeping him similar with the current cast, for good or ill. There are several RPG protagonists in Smash, but
all of them are from JRPGs; there's no representative from a true open-world Western-style RPG. Also he uses a sword, but isn't your typical anime swordsman from Fire Emblem. Skyrim's also 'M' rated, but the violence is on the level of things in the Zelda series - you can get gorier, but it's something that needs to be unlocked and is very easily divorced from the game. Still, he shares a lot of thematic overlap with Hero, especially if a gimmick with the three charge states is used, and also has some overlap with Robin as a fighter with some magic abilities.
Dovahkiin would fit almost perfectly with the current content in Smash though. The shouts are a meme of themselves, and make for a natural choice for specials, particularly FUS RO DAH. In game, this shout is designed to fling enemies backwards, preferably off cliffs. In Smash, the point of the game is to fling enemies off cliffs. There's a Dragon boss in Rathalos that would be almost too perfect for his classic mode, and his helmet (for Kirby) is iconic enough to rep the entire series at this point, to the extent that other Bethesda games are using it as an easter egg. As a bonus, there are also plenty of race/gender options as you would have in Skyrim, so it's easy to consider a Robin/Corrin/Byleth situation.
Phew...
So, the verdict?
Sovngarde's Hall of Valor, where Nord Heroes go when they die.
Bethesda's a Western company, and so far, the Western input in Smash is i) a handful of Spirits from Ubisoft and WayForward ii) three side characters from Nintendo franchises that were made to fill out those games when Nintendo got Western second-parties to make those games iii) a handful of indie 'premium spirits,' and iv) a DLC character from a company that used to be one of Nintendo's second parties before being bought out by Microsoft and the IP ending up languishing.
So not much of a hope for Western companies. More than there was before, but still not much. Also, the third parties in Smash are all either Nintendo-focused or exclusive like Bayonetta and Banjo*, or Sony focused or exclusive like Snake and Cloud. Things that lean closer to the PC/Xbox side like Bethesda's properties are not as favored (even though Bethesda's stuff is now leaning multiplat, they've traditionally been closer to the XBox side)
*Yes, Banjo is XBox now. Still, Banjo's popularity is not from Nuts and Bolts, it's from the old N64 stuff when he was a second party
And then there's the Deathclaw in the room:
Fallout's an interesting choice. To be honest, I always thought a Vault Boy Mii would be a perfect choice because of his proportions, and it really does look great. Interesting that they'd pick Vault 111 for this considering Fallout 4 hasn't gotten the port to Switch, but I'm also surprised that that hasn't happened yet. So why am I disappointed about it?
Now there are two ways to take this: either, "Oh look, they're willing to work with Bethesda! We have a character inbound!" or "Welp, I guess that's it for Bethesda representation, otherwise that Mii costume would come with the Bethesda character!" And I'm pretty far in the second camp here. We didn't get the Erdrick costumes with Joker, we didn't get the Nakoruru or Sazaki costumes with Banjo, etc. Maybe I could see some Capcom Miis getting in separately from the Capcom character, but that's just because of how big Capcom is. Bethesda's not got nearly as many options. It would have made perfect sense to bring in the Vault Boy Mii with one of these two as a character, so why wasn't it done?
I suppose that it's possible that they wanted to bring out Vault Boy with character #76 because of Fallout 76, ignoring the fact that this Vault Boy is from Fallout 4 becuase he's got 111 on his back and not 76, and that someone like Dovahkiin could come later with a bunch of fantasy swordsmen Miis like Gil/Lloyd/MonHun that we haven't seen yet, but....
...I've seen more persuasive arguments discussing how Sakurai's chairs mean Skull Kid's coming.
In short, it really looks like they went to Bethesda to get stuff the same way they went to Toby Fox and StudioMDHR. Get a Mii and done. I thought that the Altaïr and Rabbid costumes were the death blow of Rayman, and I think the same here. I don't like saying there's an absolute zero chance of things, and I think that based on the fanbases Doomguy has an edge (you can't go anywhere without hearing DOOM, meanwhile the Dovahkiin thread has just gotten to page 10, and almost half of the discussion is from about four users). I still think that that interview doesn't really mean much in terms of a solid no, but now we
have seen BethSoft content. And I think that's it for what we're gonna get.
Now, as for the want score:
I'll start with Dovahkiin - he's my absolute #1 most wanted pie in the sky character. The Elder Scrolls series has been my favorite since Morrowind came out back in 2002. I love the whole Viking aesthetic, the stages could be absolutely gorgeous with arctic vistas and aurorae in the sky, and the music is phenomenal. It'd be great to see him and Simon trekking around like two barbarian heroes, or to cross blades with Link in recognition of the relationship between those games. I'd love to see Kirby put on the helmet and Shout "
FUS RO DAH!" in his cute little voice.
I feel like the character would fit so well in Smash as the game is already set, and the options for a male and female protagonist with different races would also be great (I'd have to stick with the Orc dude the whole time though). It would also be a nod to the game's popularity and legacy.
On the other hand... you know when you're indifferent to a character, and then they keep getting shoved in your face? And you can't even turn around without seeing them? And you kinda start to resent that? And then people make it so that any discussion about the character you like is stifled because they only want to consider the one that's being talked about ad nauseam? And it really sets up a total "us versus them" mentality, and you realize how absolutely outnumbered you are? Yeah, that's where I am with Doomguy. Nothing against him personally, but I can't play FPSs to save my life, and I'm really not a fan of the music/themes/etc. of Doom. And going around loving Dovahkiin as much as I do only to get hit with "**** any Bethesda character that's not Doomguy!" really stings. Really. Add that to the fact that TESVI news is on hold, we're still waiting for info on the ESO DLC, but DOOM gets loads of anniversary events...the past year has made me so resentful of the series in general. Hard pass.
So in the end:
DOOMGUY: Chance 0.01%, want 0%
DOVAHKIIN: 0.001% want 100%
And just for fun, I'll leave it off with my Orc in ESO, cosplaying as my favorite character. Stay safe, and may Talos guide you.