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Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

Playstation Guy 1000

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Jun 22, 2019
Messages
359
absent on the boss
Decidueye
Chance 5%:whille sakurai might come back to picking him, there's just too much competition with other requested pokemon characters like a gen 8 pokemon or past gen pokemon.
Want abstain: I haven't played 7th gen Pokémon(Sun and Moon) to really give an want opinion on Decidueye
Predictions:Doomguy-25%
Dovahkin-20%
Nominations:Maxwell(Scribblenauts)-X5
 
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GoodGrief741

Smash Legend
Joined
Sep 22, 2012
Messages
10,169
Concept: A person of color x130
The Stretchers x120
D.Va x115
Tidus x115
Moogle x110
Zelda (BotW sequel) x105
Nate Adams x100
Alex Mason x100

100 - 51

Concept: Pokémon Mystery Dungeon content x96
[Rerate] Frisk x85
Concept: Darksiders rep x80
Sackboy x80
Shuichi Saihara x80
Proto Man x75
Red (Angry Birds) x75
Fulgore x74
Lu Bu (Dynasty Warriors) x70
Boss: Ender Dragon x61

50 - 25

Dwight Fairfield (Dead by Daylight) x50
Mii Costume: Jill Stingray x50
Concept: SNES-era Final Fantasy rep x50
Echo: Xion (Sora) x50
[Rerate] Ezio x50
Echo: Zeraora (Lucario) x45
Concept: Content from currently unreleased game (not Spirit Events) (as of May 17th 2020) x45
The Terrarian x45
Sakura Shinguji x45
Echo: Dark Bowser (Bowser) x44
Concept: More ATs as one new item x40
Echo: Lord Fredrik (King K. Rool) x39
Stage: Bowser's Castle x38
Gooigi x37
Concept: Second F-Zero rep x34
Urbosa x30
Giygas x30
Austin the Butler (Gardenscapes) x30
Concept: Assist Trophies added in updates x27
Rival Pokémon Trainer x25
Concept: Dark Souls rep x25
Billy Hatcher x25

Under 25

Concept: Returning stages x21
Jin Sakai x20
Zeraora x15
Black Shadow x15
Wolf Link x15
Concept: Fighter Pass Volume 2 is half Nintendo and half third party x15
Concept: FP2 character comes with an Echo Fighter x15
Lora and Jin x15
Boss: Rayquaza x14
[Rerate] Jin Kazama x10
[Rerate] Monokuma x10
Gran/Djeeta x10
Otto Matic x10
The Avatar (Ultima) x10
Neptune (Hyperdimension Neptunia) x10
Concept: Bravely Default rep x10
Concept: Rocket League rep x10
Mii Costume: Alex Kidd x10
Riptor x10
Concept: Deltarune content x10
The Bard (Wandersong) x10
Chell x8
Magolor x7
Taranza x6
Concept: Darkstalkers rep x6
Sparky (Clash Royale) x5
Concept: Overwatch character x5
Asha (Wonder Boy) x5
Mii Costume: Hat Kid x5
Concept: Portal 2 rep x5
Breath of the Wild 2 Ganondorf x5
Tick (Brawl Stars) x5
King Graham x5
Concept: Fortnite character x5
Cooking Mama x5
Jill (Drill Dozer) x5
Asuka (Senran Kagura) x5
Furret x5
Deku Scrub x5
Mii Costume: Edward Falcon x5
Concept: A LABO character x5
Cynthia x5
Concept: Bonus character x5
John Marston x5
Concept: No AT promotions x5
[Rerate] Morrigan Aensland x5
[Rerate] Cadence x5
Klonoa x5
Octoling x5
Medusa (Kid Icarus) x5
Concept: Generic Zora x3
Three Mage Sisters x2
Concept: A Pokémon Trainer who fights x2
Concept: A fighter who uses all kicks x2
[Rerate] Metal Sonic x2
Concept: Generic Goron x2
Mii Costume: Jacket x2
Echo (Olimar) x1

Concept: A person of color passes The Stretchers and is now in first place. Tidus blitzes past Moogle and ties with D.Va for third place. Zelda fights past Nate Adams to take sixth place, as Alex Mason breaks into the top seven to tie with Nate for last.

Billy Hatcher rolls out of the under 25 club.

Your newcomers for today are Octoling and Medusa, both with 5 noms (and both characters I can't believe we haven't rated before).
 

RealPokeFan11

Smash Lord
Joined
Aug 24, 2018
Messages
1,243
Location
Center of the Zero Point
Switch FC
SW-0818-9732-6979
Abstaining on the Boss.

Decidueye
Chance: 0%
Want: 50%

Sorry to stick it in your face Decidueye, but Incineroar is currently dancing and taking a fat piss on your grave. And especially now that Gen 8 is out, revisiting Gen 7 to add yet another starter seems entirely pointless. I don't have much else to say in the chance department.

While I didn't mind Incineroar's inclusion, I would've preferred Decidueye. Even then, if I could rewind time back to 2018, and teleport to Nintendo of Japan to work on Smash, I would've chosen Nihilego as the Gen 7 rep. It's extremely relevant to the story, and it's design and abilities would've been something we've never seen before in Smash. And now that Gen 8 is active, Toxtricity would be the optimal choice in my mind.

Doomguy: 2.04% (developer disconfirmations can be entirely accurate or a complete troll, similar to Banjo-Kazooie's situation with Kirkhope. It's most likely true though.)
Dovahkiin: 6.42%
 

Calamitas

Smash Champion
Joined
Aug 17, 2018
Messages
2,689
Location
Germany
Not gonna lie, I thought that this about the MGS character at first

Chance: 0%
Once again, reading some other people's ratings helped me out a lot here! So we have a character without a clearly definied appearance, whose games only just started coming to Switch, in a series that is past it's big time in the sun, and from a Western developer. . . and pretty much no support from the Smash fanbase. Yeah, not seeing any chance there.

Want: Abstain.
Barely know a thing about this series. No rating from me.

That ghost typing is appropriate

Chance: 0%
Incineroar got in over it. That alone should be enough reasoning to give 0%, but rules are rules, and I have more to say anyway. As others have already pointed out, we almost never get a new Pokémon character that's not from the most recent Generation. The only real exceptions to this are Pokémon Trainer and Mewtwo, which are both from Generation 1, which always gets preferential treatment. Also worthy of note is that Mewtwo was added during Generation 2, which still was inherently pretty close to 1 in its own design.

Want: 20%
I'll have to admit it: I still don't like Incineroar. Sure, the moveset is fun, but that moveset is something that you could just as well give a human character.
Even in Sun and Moon, I wasn't a fan of its design by any means, since I was sincerely hoping for a quadrupedal fully evolved fire starter just this once. Decidueye I liked a whole lot more (though Primarina is still my favourite out of that bunch), and who I would've preferred for Smash. But now with regards to DLC. . . I'm in the same boat as some other people here, in that I'm rather burned out with Pokémon. The series has just generally been on a downward trend since the end of Generation 5 in my eyes, which "peaked" with Sword and Shield. I wouldn't be opposed to Decidueye as DLC, but I wouldn't be super thrilled for it, either.

Predicting Doom Guy to get around 11.85%.
Predicting Dovakhiin to get around 7.63%,

Nominating Concept: A person of colour x5.
 

BowserKing

Smash Lord
Joined
Feb 16, 2019
Messages
1,918
Location
winnipeg
Decidueye

Chance: 20%. Decidueye was considered for Ultimate, giving that Pokémon a slight chance. While Rillaboom Is more likely, it does not mean that Decidueye is impossible. Plus a second grass starter is very likely.

Want: 90%. While I prefer it if Lugia gets in first, Decidueye would still be a fun character to play as, and I can see Decidueye and Link having a bow and arrow fight. Overall, Decidueye would be a fun addition to the roaster.

Boss

Chance: 10%. I don't know if boss would be in this game, but the chance is not impossible however. If Boss does get in, it's more likely to be a Mii Costume or a spirit, but that is just my opinion.

Want: 50%. I don't know too much about Saints Row, but the Boss would be fun to play as. That is all I'm going to say about that character.

Prediction: Doomguy (15%) and Dovakiin (5%)

Noms: 5 for Returning Stages
 
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Ninjaed

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Nov 7, 2018
Messages
468
Abstain because I don't feel like rating those - would be a double double 0s for me. Okay, maybe not 0% want for Decidueye but still fairly low.

Predictions:
Doomguy - 27%
Dovahkiin - 7%

Nominations: Concept: new ATs as one new item x5
 
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DanganZilla5

Smash Champion
Writing Team
Joined
Mar 5, 2019
Messages
2,434
The Boss a.k.a Playa....not only because you play as him but also he is a player, if you know what I mean.......

Chance: 5%

Some interesting points are being made today. On one hand, the Switch ports definitely help Saints Row get onto Nintendo's radar and the over the top nature of the game actually helps it out a little bit. Sure the characters are vulgar and there is a lot of sexual content but one big part of The Boss's personality is being cocky, exaggerating, and sarcastic, things that can certainly be replicated in Smash no problem. As for the no iconic appearance argument, it is a valid concern but they have actually been using the same general design for him on the box art ever since Saints Row 3. Purple clothes, glasses, black suit, black hair, etc. So while he is definitely not the most recognizable character, he does have a consistent design throughout the years in the marketing department. Not to mention, Saints Row is a fairly popular series and while it may have passed its peak, it definitely has left its own mark on the industry as a full-on satire, whether it was for better or for worse. One thing you can't take away is that it has its own personality. And finally, The Boss has a variety of neat weapons to make an awesome moveset with. Dubstep Gun, SMGs, Merica gun (Flamethrower and rocket launcher in one), Knife Thrower, plus his superpowers and he even has gun that makes a god dam underground shark attack people. How ******** bad a** is that??

But that doesn't mean he's likely. A western series from a western company, little requests, the series has passed its peak, and overall there is not a lot of reasons for Nintendo to choose a character from this game over bigger fish.

Want: 60%

Dubstep Gun. And also awesome music. Sari you also missed the Saints Row 4 Main Theme. Overall while I support many other characters so the Boss wouldn't be a priority for me, I would be happy to see him join Smash. I like Saints Row and I think the insane, cartoonish nature of the game would go well with Smash, despite everything else that is in the game, but the good little boys and girls wouldn't need to see any of it. Unless if they decide to look up the game where the character is from......

-------------

Green Arrow

Chance: 0.10%

I'm giving Decidueye this small amount of petty points only because Sakurai said he almost chose him. GoodGrief perfectly summed up Pokemon's situation. I'll keep saying this: We most likely will get a Gen 8 Pokemon. Even if by some miracle this is not the case, Decidueye has a lot of competition to deal with.

Want: 15%

He is a cool Pokemon with good moveset potential and it would be nice to get another Grass starter. But I can't stress this enough: I don't want anymore Pokemon anytime soon.

Predictions:
Doomguy - 1%
Dovahkiin - 28%

Noms: Ezio x5

TCT~Phantom TCT~Phantom Is the big rerate schedule necessary? No offense but a lot of these characters' chances have not changed at all. I get some of these like Doomguy and Dragonborn because of the Vault Boy Mii costume, but for the Capcom characters, Ryu Hayabusa, Travis Touchdown, Square Enix reps, Activision reps, etc. it seems unnecessary to rerate them.
 

YoshiandToad

Smash Hero
Joined
Dec 24, 2001
Messages
7,123
Location
Still up Peach's dress.
Decidueyed to post this one seperately.

Decidueye
Chance: 2%
Honestly this feels generous. Sun and Moon are old news already, but Decidueye did have a lot of vocal discussion prior to Incineroar's inclusion so maybe Nintendo caught wind of that?

Honestly it still seems practically impossible. Cinderace, Rillaboom and Inteleon are the new hot flavour of the month, and there's no real reason to expect the Pokémon company to look at Decidueye again for a long time, in the same way not many starters are promoted outside their gen remakes, post introduction.

Want: 3%
Honestly I don't care about Sun and Moon. At all.

It's the only generation I totally skipped, and so I had no horse in the Smash Ultimate Pokémon character.
At the same time I'm also aware that nearly every starter Pokémon outside the Kanto trio, and arguably Greninja, is immediately forgotten about anyway after their introduction.
When was the last time anyone thought about Chesnaught, Typhlosion or Samurott?

To me, Decidueye is the same deal. Hell, Incineroar is kind of that DESPITE getting into Smash.
 
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RouffWestie

Smash Lord
Joined
Oct 27, 2013
Messages
1,237
Location
Georgia
Abstain on The Boss
Decidueye
Chance: 0%
Want: 0%
Any additional Pokemon we get is extremely likely to be from Gen 8. Incineroar already seems to be the only Pokemon intended to be included from Gen 7. Decidueye's only significant factor is it's popularity, but I feel like that's waned over time.
I never liked Decidueye. I don't think I'd be interested in it appearing as a fighter. I haven't played a Pokemon game for over a decade.
 

SharkLord

Smash Hero
Joined
Jun 20, 2020
Messages
7,675
Location
Pangaea, 250 MYA
Abstain on Boss. Don't know enough about Saint's Row to say. As for Decidueye:
Chance-10%
Want-40%
Incineroar pretty much punched a hole in his chances, but on the off chance he does get in, I wouldn't be too mad.
Nominate: Klonoa x5
 

GoodGrief741

Smash Legend
Joined
Sep 22, 2012
Messages
10,169
Nominations: Moogle x 5. Also, how do nominations work during the preset ratings period? I was lurking/rarely-posting last time, but wasn't doing any nominations...
It's the same as always, just that instead of the top seven being locked once a week, it doesn't get locked until the day before the fixed schedule is over.
 

NintenRob

Rising YouTuber
Writing Team
Joined
Feb 8, 2014
Messages
5,517
Location
Australia
NNID
trpdm.wilton
The Boss
DOUBLE 0
why is this even part of the fixed schedule? It's a western third party franchise who has basically 0 request for Smash, no where near Banjo level anyway. And I don't think someone who uses a Dildo as a weapon is exactly appealing to Nintendo. I have no interest in this franchise and don't want to see it in Smash.

Decidueye
Chance 0%
Want 50%
My desire for any Pokemon is pretty low. The games are at all time low in quality. The last character we got from it is the single most worst addition ever in Smash Bros. And we already have ten Pokemon. AND HALF OF THEM ARE STARTERS. I do like Decidueye and I think it would have been a much better character than Incineroar. But I'm tired of Pokemon. I'm tired of starters, and if we did get one it would obviously be a Gen 8 Mon.


Nominate person of colour x5

Predictions
Dovakhin 9%
Doomguy 21%
 

Proceleon

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Oct 22, 2015
Messages
463
Location
Yoshi's Island
NNID
Proceleon
3DS FC
2423-2553-2839
Switch FC
SW-6226-7752-8603
Decidueye
Double 0% here.
His chance came and went with the dev period for Ultimate. The most they could give him is an Spirit as a participation award, but at this point he'll be lucky to even get that.
Even though he's sadly not in Ultimate in any form, they absolutely made the right choice with Incineroar. Wouldn't change him out for the world, especially not for the flavour-of-the-week Grass Starter.

The Boss
Chance: 5%
Admittedly that's generous, but as long as they keep him PG (AKA using The Penetrator is a big no-no.) then his powers would feel right at home. I do think his stage would be a bit bland though, and music-wise? Yeah, music's not getting us anything but the Final Fantasy treatment.
Want: 90%
My current signature literally has him in it. Need I say more?
 
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amageish

Smash Master
Joined
Jul 21, 2018
Messages
3,558
It's the same as always, just that instead of the top seven being locked once a week, it doesn't get locked until the day before the fixed schedule is over.
Okay, good to know! I'm ready for another month of nominating Moogle then haha.

why is this even part of the fixed schedule?
I believe these two were the remaining characters of the week we were already on. They've just been squished together into one day to kick off the rerating parade.
 

Ridrool64

Smash Lord
Joined
Jun 21, 2013
Messages
1,398
Location
New Jersey
What kind of a pairing is this?

Chance (The Boss): 5%, maybe? Saints Row is the kind of series nobody's really asking to be in Smash. There's no real fan demand from Smash fans or Saints Row fans, so the bridge doesn't seem like a fan-demanded one. The series could sneak up on us, but it's one I have a hard time imagining in Smash.

Chance (Decidueye): 0%. 1. Incineroar happened. 2. A Galarian Pokémon is all but guaranteed. 3. I can't see us getting two Pokémon in one pass. In fact I don't even think Decidueye is "just" out for Ultimate, the poor guy is probably doomed to never get in.

Want (The Boss): Abstain, this isn't my series. My brother would likely know more about SR but it's nothing I particularly care about one way or the other.

Want (Decidueye): 30%. It'd be higher if I didn't suspect Decidueye's popularity still has to do with the grass-water-fire trifecta fans are obsessed with, or if the Smash fandom didn't more or less move on to Rillaboom.

Red x 5. Wasn't Doomguy put out to pasture a while back? And both him and Dovahkiin feel less likely due to Fallout Boy's sudden arrival... 3.50% for the former, 10.69% for the latter.
 

Calamitas

Smash Champion
Joined
Aug 17, 2018
Messages
2,689
Location
Germany
Off-topic question here, but which one isn't?
That'd be Chesnaught. I did actually start with it when I initially played X back in 2013, but it really just kinda fell off for me after that. For grass I'm actually not sure exactly what my favourite starter is, but it's somewhere between Sceptile, Torterra and Serperior.
 

YoshiandToad

Smash Hero
Joined
Dec 24, 2001
Messages
7,123
Location
Still up Peach's dress.
constantly and forever
I mean, two out of those three are my favourite starters of that type. Starters really are some of the least flavour of the month Pokémon there are.
I mean you guys are free to like whatever starters you want, that wasn't really my point.

I myself like all three of these(I chose them specifically because I know they don't get any love), but to pretend they get any attention outside their gen or remake of their gen from The Pokemon Company for even merchandising and spinoff promotion simply isn't true, and that was my point.

They aren't going to be used because the Pokemon Company and Gamefreak simply don't think about them much afterwards unless there is a gen remake. If we get a Let's Go Johto maybe Typhlosion will get some love, but aside from that, nah. Very few starters do...

...except for Charizard of course.

Charizard gets all the love:
  • Two Mega forms. Only Pokemon aside from Mewtwo to get this.
  • Being made to be the champion's main Pokemon, over a more traditional Pokemon introduced from that generation.
  • Being the only starter of a previous gen in the base game of Sword and Shield. Blastoise and Venusaur had to wait for DLC.
  • Being used as a gift Pokemon for around 18 special events. That's the most aside from mascot Pikachu.
  • Getting a Gigantamax form. Kind of minor, but not every Pokemon got one.
  • Belonging to both the major protagonists of Pokemon's series; Ash and Red in all their various appearances.
  • Getting a major part in the Detective Pikachu film and was used heavily to promote the film.
  • Being in Smash as the only Pokemon fighter promoted from a Pokeball.
  • Being the only one from Pokemon Trainer's team to survive Sm4sh's cuts. Obviously he rejoined the team in Ultimate, but he cannot be cut.
But he's definitely an exception more than a rule.
 

fogbadge

Smash Obsessed
Joined
Jun 29, 2012
Messages
22,656
Location
Scotland
I mean you guys are free to like whatever starters you want, that wasn't really my point.

I myself like all three of these(I chose them specifically because I know they don't get any love), but to pretend they get any attention outside their gen or remake of their gen from The Pokemon Company for even merchandising and spinoff promotion simply isn't true, and that was my point.

They aren't going to be used because the Pokemon Company and Gamefreak simply don't think about them much afterwards unless there is a gen remake. If we get a Let's Go Johto maybe Typhlosion will get some love, but aside from that, nah. Very few starters do...

...except for Charizard of course.

Charizard gets all the love:
  • Two Mega forms. Only Pokemon aside from Mewtwo to get this.
  • Being made to be the champion's main Pokemon, over a more traditional Pokemon introduced from that generation.
  • Being the only starter of a previous gen in the base game of Sword and Shield. Blastoise and Venusaur had to wait for DLC.
  • Being used as a gift Pokemon for around 18 special events. That's the most aside from mascot Pikachu.
  • Getting a Gigantamax form. Kind of minor, but not every Pokemon got one.
  • Belonging to both the major protagonists of Pokemon's series; Ash and Red in all their various appearances.
  • Getting a major part in the Detective Pikachu film and was used heavily to promote the film.
  • Being in Smash as the only Pokemon fighter promoted from a Pokeball.
  • Being the only one from Pokemon Trainer's team to survive Sm4sh's cuts. Obviously he rejoined the team in Ultimate, but he cannot be cut.
But he's definitely an exception more than a rule.
you asked when someone last thought about them and i answered
 

Troykv

Smash Master
Joined
Jan 24, 2015
Messages
3,990
I mean you guys are free to like whatever starters you want, that wasn't really my point.

I myself like all three of these(I chose them specifically because I know they don't get any love), but to pretend they get any attention outside their gen or remake of their gen from The Pokemon Company for even merchandising and spinoff promotion simply isn't true, and that was my point.

They aren't going to be used because the Pokemon Company and Gamefreak simply don't think about them much afterwards unless there is a gen remake. If we get a Let's Go Johto maybe Typhlosion will get some love, but aside from that, nah. Very few starters do...

...except for Charizard of course.

Charizard gets all the love:
  • Two Mega forms. Only Pokemon aside from Mewtwo to get this.
  • Being made to be the champion's main Pokemon, over a more traditional Pokemon introduced from that generation.
  • Being the only starter of a previous gen in the base game of Sword and Shield. Blastoise and Venusaur had to wait for DLC.
  • Being used as a gift Pokemon for around 18 special events. That's the most aside from mascot Pikachu.
  • Getting a Gigantamax form. Kind of minor, but not every Pokemon got one.
  • Belonging to both the major protagonists of Pokemon's series; Ash and Red in all their various appearances.
  • Getting a major part in the Detective Pikachu film and was used heavily to promote the film.
  • Being in Smash as the only Pokemon fighter promoted from a Pokeball.
  • Being the only one from Pokemon Trainer's team to survive Sm4sh's cuts. Obviously he rejoined the team in Ultimate, but he cannot be cut.
But he's definitely an exception more than a rule.
Charizard is so popular, that is almost treat like a second Pikachu, almost.

So... let's see...

What?

Can I abstain for these ones? I don't have anything to say, maybe for Decidueye later, but it's a dead cause at this point, poor guy.

Predictions:

Doom Guy - 34.5%
Dovahkiin - 23.4%

Nominations:

Medusa (Kid Icarus) x5
 

TCT~Phantom

Smash Master
Writing Team
Joined
Dec 10, 2013
Messages
3,965
NNID
TCT~Phantom
Day over

Today we got Doomguy and Dragonborm (Skyrim). Since we now have official conformation of sorts that Bethesda is involved with Smash via Vault Boy, will that help their scores? Or will the previous tones of the developers when talking of Doomguy hurt them?

Tomorrow we will be rating two of the biggest Capcom characters in speculation, Dante and Phoenix Wright. Also previous speculation darling Ryu Hayabusa stealthily slipped into the ratings for this day. Predit these three.


Here is the fixed schedule.

Day 467: The Boss (Saints Row) and Decidueye (Pokemon)
Day 468: Doomguy and Dragonborn
Day 469: Dante, Ryu Hayabusa, and Phoenix Wright
Day 470: Shantae and Quote
Day 471: Geno and Sora
Day 472: Crash and Spyro
Day 473: Nightmare and Sol Badguy
Day 474: Lloyd Irving, Chosen Undead, and KOS MOS
Day 475: Neku and Agnes (Bravely Default)
Day 476: Dixie Kong and Bandana Dee
Day 477: Master Chief and Kratos
Day 478: Isaac and Ashley
Day 479: Gordon Freeman and Heavy Weapons Guy
Day 480: Reimu and Arle Nadja
Day 481: Skull Kid, Midna, and Lyn
Day 482: Krystal, Shadow, and Bomberman
Day 483: Takamaru, Lip, and Mach Rider
Day 484: Chorus Men, Karate Joe, and Rhythm Girl
Day 485: Saki and RAY
Day 486: Rayman and Travis Touchdown
Day 487: Captain Toad and Paper Mario
Day 488: Tracer and Diablo
Day 489: Sephiroth and 2B
Day 490: Meowth, Mimikyu and Lycanroc (I CAN DREAM HAROLD)
Day 491: Sylux and Porky
Day 492: Rillaboom and Cinderace
Day 493: Toxtricity and Urshifu
Day 494: Elma and Lara Croft
Day 495: Jibanyan and Agumon
Day 496: Tails and Eggman
Day 497: Andy and Ayumi Tachibana
Day 498: Professor Layton and Steve
Day 499: Rex and Waluigi
Day 500: We do something special.
 

Perkilator

Smash Legend
Writing Team
Joined
Apr 8, 2018
Messages
11,407
Location
The perpetual trash fire known as Planet Earth(tm)
Abstain on both. Vault Boy of all characters getting a costume might affect their chances somewhat.

Dante: 25%
Phoenix Wright: 40%
Hayabusa: 35%


Noms:
Xion as Sora's Echo Fighter ×2
Sakura Shinguji ×3

Day over

Today we got Doomguy and Dragonborm (Skyrim). Since we now have official conformation of sorts that Bethesda is involved with Smash via Vault Boy, will that help their scores? Or will the previous tones of the developers when talking of Doomguy hurt them?

Tomorrow we will be rating two of the biggest Capcom characters in speculation, Dante and Phoenix Wright. Also previous speculation darling Ryu Hayabusa stealthily slipped into the ratings for this day. Predit these three.


Here is the fixed schedule.

Day 467: The Boss (Saints Row) and Decidueye (Pokemon)
Day 468: Doomguy and Dragonborn
Day 469: Dante, Ryu Hayabusa, and Phoenix Wright
Day 470: Shantae and Quote
Day 471: Geno and Sora
Day 472: Crash and Spyro
Day 473: Nightmare and Sol Badguy
Day 474: Lloyd Irving, Chosen Undead, and KOS MOS
Day 475: Neku and Agnes (Bravely Default)
Day 476: Dixie Kong and Bandana Dee
Day 477: Master Chief and Kratos
Day 478: Isaac and Ashley
Day 479: Gordon Freeman and Heavy Weapons Guy
Day 480: Reimu and Arle Nadja
Day 481: Skull Kid, Midna, and Lyn
Day 482: Krystal, Shadow, and Bomberman
Day 483: Takamaru, Lip, and Mach Rider
Day 484: Chorus Men, Karate Joe, and Rhythm Girl
Day 485: Saki and RAY
Day 486: Rayman and Travis Touchdown
Day 487: Captain Toad and Paper Mario
Day 488: Tracer and Diablo
Day 489: Sephiroth and 2B
Day 490: Meowth, Mimikyu and Lycanroc (I CAN DREAM HAROLD)
Day 491: Sylux and Porky
Day 492: Rillaboom and Cinderace
Day 493: Toxtricity and Urshifu
Day 494: Elma and Lara Croft
Day 495: Jibanyan and Agumon
Day 496: Tails and Eggman
Day 497: Andy and Ayumi Tachibana
Day 498: Professor Layton and Steve
Day 499: Rex and Waluigi
Day 500: We do something special.
Without sounding selfish, I'm not exactly sure a fixed schedule is such a good idea.
 
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Sari

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Some songs for today's characters:

Doomguy


Dragonborn/Dovahkiin

 

SharkLord

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Pangaea, 250 MYA
Dovahkiin:
Chance: 50%
Want: 40%
Skyrim's a pretty popular game, and you'd think it'd get more discussions regarding Smash. With Vault Boy's Mii, the doors to Bethesda are opened somewhat, but nothing's concrete. I don't know too much about Skyrim, but he seems pretty cool.

Doomguy:
Chance: 75%
Want: 80%
Doom's a very influential game, and various events have drawn the Doom fandom and Nintendo fandom closer together. The guns don't bother me too much; We've already got Joker's gun, so some zany sci-fi guns shouldn't be too much of a stretch. Doomguy's definitely on my wishlist.

Predictions:
Dante: 80%
Pheonix: 60%

Nomitations: Klonoa x5
 
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amageish

Smash Master
Joined
Jul 21, 2018
Messages
3,558
Doomguy

Chance: 0%. I mean, if the current director of the Doom games said he isn't in, then he isn't in. Maybe he was lying, but I personally am not into the chaos that "We cannot trust anyone" speculation leads to, so I'll just take the L if Doomguy gets in and he was pulling an elaborate ruse.

Want: Abstain. I'd be very happy for his fans and think he could be a lot of fun, but also FPSes give me motion sickness so I have little attachment personally.

Dragonborn

Chance: 8%. Welcome, ladies and gentlepersons, to the Dark Horse Races! The #1 course where characters with solid Nintendo connections, but compartively-low fan demand, compete to see who overcomes their compatively low chance scores! Dragonborn is from a popular game that was published on Switch by Nintendo in Japan and you can cosplay as Link in the Switch version. All of these are good things to be! That said, it's still a western company and they could have saved the Fallout costume to come with them in some sort of Betheseda pack... It's very possible, but that's still a rocky road.

Want: Abstain. I also don't like open-world games... Man, this thread makes me feel like such a weeb sometimes...

Nominations: All Hail Moogle x5; the eternal nomination for the next month or so... which isn't very eternal, but every day is an eternity nowadays.
Predictions: Dante = 60% / Hayabusa = 80% / Wright = 40%. I don't agree with these scores, but I feel like the amount of ultimately-fake leaks and rumours that have supported Dante and Ryu before have created a slight environment of "They must be happening, as we keep talking about them" that goes beyond the actual good things they have going for them...
 

Jomosensual

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Joined
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Messages
2,014
Doom Guy

Chance 0 - That interview is still a big oof on his chances. Vault Boy randomly showing up as a Mii Costume doesn't help either. Cacomallow at this point is very obviously fake. Maybe we're getting played but that interview went so specific I think I gotta call him deconfirmed for pass 2

Want 50 - Sure why not. Can't hurt. Not a ton of 1st person shooters I play or anything but I think Doom has earned itself a place in Smash.


Dovahkiin
Chance 15 - Feeling worse on him with the Vault Boy Mii costume being here now. Western rep as well which hurts, even though I do think we get at least 1. I think there's a shot here though anyways. First, he's a 2010s icon which is something we're missing from Smash. 2nd, if we do get another western rep I think he's one of the top picks. He's well known and while not super requested he would likely be cheaper than someone like Crash.

Want 80 - This would be really cool. Like I said above, Dovahkiin is an icon of the 2010s of gaming and that alone tells me he should be in consideration. Would likely be a pretty fun character to play too.

Predictions
Phoenix - 45%
Dante - 57%
Hayabusa - 66%

Noms:
Riptor x5
 

DrifloonEmpire

Smash Champion
Joined
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Messages
2,230
The Last Dragonborn

Chance: 60% - I may be rolling high on this one, but Vault Boy's Mii Costume only boosted my confidence! Not only is he proof that Bethesda DID indeed do negotiations with Nintendo, but that it was with the Bethesda Game Studios side of the company (combining this with Marty Stratton's mention of nothing serious coming out of id's talks with Nintendo, along with a general lack of knowledge fits the whole puzzle together). People may say that the Mii Costume invalidates Dragonborn due to the logic of "why wouldn't they just release it with their character?". Yet at the same time, people don't apply this logic to Rayman, who got his company's Rabbids and Altair costume with Byleth's pack. maybe Bethesda wanted to show the costume off early since they had nothing to show for E3, or maybe things got shuffled around due to COVID. If it doesn't invalidate Rayman, it doesn't invalidate Dragonborn.

Also, outside of Joker, a character usually comes with costumes from their own franchise but none of their company's other franchises (yes there's Terry's SNK costumes, but all of their properties are parts of the same whole, with their shared universe). There's also some precedent for a Mii Costume coming out outside of their company's character. Yes, Cuphead is by Studio MDHR, but Microsoft has full control over the Cuphead IP's collaborations, including his Mii Costume. Cuphead came with Byleth. But didn't we get a Microsoft character in the first pass as well? Gya huh, we did!

Alongside all of this, I'm gonna quote the rest of the character's merits from the Bethesda rating day a few months back:

The Last Dragonborn, Slayer of Alduin and Savior of Tamriel

Now that Doom Slayer is out of the picture, Dragonborn is the new frontrunner as perceived by the fanbase. The Elder Scrolls is an extremely successful and influential open-world series that inspired other games to take on the style, including the extremely successful Breath of the Wild. The series as sold 52 million copies, with 33 million coming from Skyrim alone. The fact that people still talk about the game despite coming out 8 years ago (for mixed reasons) is a testament to how influential it was. Furthermore, there are some other major points I want to list that work in his favor:

- The first Western game to be given a 40/40 on Famitsu. Dragonborn is also an Avatar character, which Japan has a fondness for.
- Skyrim was used to help advertise the Switch during the initial trailer.
- Todd Howard appears to be a fan of Nintendo, given the Zelda items in the Switch port of Skyrim were his idea. The Switch version got exclusive content such as that and Skyward Sword-style motion controls.
- The recent Doom interview mentioning that higher-ups had done some talking to each other. Given Marty didn't know or say who talked to who, we do know that there was some negotiations going on somewhere, affirming Pete Hines' statement that they had indeed talked to Nintendo about Smash at some point. We just know that it wasn't for Doom Slayer. Which puts The Elder Scrolls as the most likely.

1. Western Characters are now on the table - This applies to a lot of characters, but Banjo-Kazooie opening the doors to Western characters is a major game changer since the Dragonborn's previous rating.

2. Skyrim was one of the first games shown off on the Switch - During the Switch's reveal trailer, Skyrim was the second game shown off after Breath of the Wild, and the first Third Party game shown, showing that Nintendo holds the game in high regard.

3. Breath of the Wild takes inspiration - During an interview, it was stated that the Elder Scrolls series was a major point of inspiration for Breath of the Wild, showing how influential the series has become.

4. Skyrim for Switch has exclusive content - The Switch version of Skyrim further cements the relationship between it and Breath of the Wild. Several Zelda items are available in-game, complete with Amiibo support as well, and even a new eye option for Wood Elves/Bosmer to presumably help create Link look-alikes. There was even a motion-based control scheme added to take advantage of the Joycons, which leads me into my next point...

5. Todd Howard appears to be a fan of or has some kind of interest in Nintendo - Apparently the special Switch version content for Skyrim was suggested and pushed for by Todd himself, showing that he has an interest in Nintendo. If this is indeed the case, then if Sakurai himself or Nintendo executives came to Bethesda for negotiations, then Todd more than likely would've wanted to be at that meeting. People state that the Doom 64 Pete Hines appearence in September's Nintendo Direct is a big point in Doom's favor, but let's not forget that Todd Howard did the same thing a year prior, appearing on a Nintendo Direct himself to talk about Skyrim for Switch. Todd is as big within Bethesda as Pete Hines is, and he would definitely push to get one of his characters into the game.

6. Skyrim was the first western game to receive a 40/40 on Famitsu - Famitsu gave Skyrim a perfect score, and the Elder Scrolls, both in its' games/roleplaying and its' modding, have gained a sizable following in Japan. Even if it's no Dragon Quest, it is doing very well for a Western Game, and even Elder Scrolls online has plenty of Japanese players despite not having a dedicated server. Bethesda's been putting up big advertisements for their games at Tokyo Game Show as well. People, again, try to point this in Doom's favor but they've been advertising ESO there for several years. There's also Elder Scrolls Blades, which Bethesda has been putting up promotions for the Switch version, and on the game's webpage there's even an image with a giant Switch playing the game. Meanwhile Doom, while having a fan project there, is still very niche, and Fallout doesn't seem to be making waves there either. Nintendo cares the most about their home market, and of Bethesda's choices Dragonborn would make the most sense, both sales and cultural-wise.

7. Out of Bethesda's games, The Elder Scrolls series has sold the most, and is their home grown franchise - The Elder Scrolls as a whole has sold 52 million copies, and Skyrim alone has sold 33 million. That alone is four times as much as the entire Doom franchise. Furthrmore The Elder Scrolls' success is what made Bethesda who they are, and without them there likely would've been no revivals for Doom or Fallout.

I'll be realistic in that being a Western character he still has some very intense competition and is fighting an uphill battle, but with many points in his favor to prove to Nintendo that he is worth it, and with Doom Slayer out of the picture for now for Fighter's Pass #5, Dragonborn's chances are looking greater than ever! Say what you want about the game, I think it's definitely stood the test of time!



Want: 100%++ - Gonna quote my want score as well!

The Last Dragonborn (or any Elder Scrolls rep for that matter) is one of my most wanted characters, second only to The Prince of All Cosmos. The Elder Scrolls was one of the first non-Nintendo series I've played and Skyrim was my first entry into the series, so it has great sentimental value to me. The whole experience of starting a new Elder Scrolls game and exploring for the first time is just so magical. I remember spending countless hours reading the lore and watching remix videos for months until I was able to get a computer that could run the games. The series also came into my life during a very good time, and the memories I have with it are irreplaceable. All together I've put over 600-700 hours into Skyrim, along with 300+ in Oblivion and 100+ in Morrowind, making it one of my most played series of all time.

Furthermore, The Last Dragonborn would bring a new archetype and aesthetic to Smash that we have yet to see, and the shout mechanic from the game feels tailor-made for specials in a Smash Bros game. There are all sorts of cool effects to choose from, and with different alts resembling the game's different races, he could make for a very personalized character, one that fellow Avatar character Robin didn't try. They could even take it a step further and give him a dedicated Weapon-switching mechanic alongside it for his A moves and grabs, something that Byleth missed the opportunity for. And the stage would be absolutely gorgeous, and I'd love to see the Smash team's take on several of the series' most iconic tracks! I'd love to see Whiterun or High Hrothgar in stage form, or even the Imperial City if they decide to go for a more general Elder Scrolls representation! There is so much to look forward to, and if The Last Dragonborn were to make it into Smash it would be a joy greater than any before it! A lot of people use the "Celebration of video games" idea to justify a lot of characters, both significant and obscure.. And with that idea in mind I think The Elder Scrolls would make for a fantastic addition to the celebration!

Doom Slayer

Chance: 0.5% - Unlike what a lot of people think, I believe chances for Doom Slayer are lower than before. Not only does January's Metro interview still stand, but any other evidence of DOOM content is missing. After THREE Mii Costume presentations (Terry, Byleth, Min Min) we have yet to see a single sign of CacoMallow, so that should finally be put to rest. DOOM certainly has merit, but it has some extremely stiff inter-company competition, and if Vault Boy shows the negotiations leaning towards the Bethesda Game Studios side rather than id Software, that's the final nail in the coffin. Some cite in regards the the interview that "Oh, maybe Marty wasn't aware yet!". The interview was published in January, when Byleth was finished and 6,7, and likely 8 were being worked on. If Doom Slayer was in the pass, why the h*** WOULDN'T he be aware?! I don't mean to sound rude, but I just don't see Doom Slayer happening.

Want: 0% - I don't have anything against the Slayer himself, inter company competition with one of my most wanted and bad experiences with his fans really turn me off from the character's inclusion. Furthermore, heavy metal is not my kind of music, so I can't say I'd be very excited by his soundtrack. He certainly has the merit and deserves the slot, and I do respect the character, but I personally would rather see Bethesda honor their home grown and most successful franchise with a character instead.


Nominations:
Austin the Butler x5


Predictions:
Dante - 58.32%
Phoenix Wright - 45.43%
Ryu Hayabusa - 26.67%
 

Megadoomer

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Doomguy

Chance: 60% - while his game popularized a major genre in video games, that genre (first person shooters) seems to be significantly less popular in Japan, which might make a difference. While I don't feel like violence is an issue here, since that sort of thing can and has been toned down, and guns don't seem to be as much of an issue as they once were given Joker (the weapons in Doom (2016) and Eternal mostly lean towards a sci-fi aesthetic anyway), the relative unpopularity of first person shooters in Japan might be an issue even with Sakurai acknowledging John Carmack's impact on gaming.

Maybe I'm overblowing this one issue, but I'm concerned that it might have an impact on his chances. Aside from that, he seems to have a lot going for him - a ton of history, being from a game with a major impact on the industry, and the company that owns him being cooperative with the Smash developers.

Want: 100% - I only started playing Doom because I watched playthroughs of Doom (2016) and it looked like fun. I don't have much experience with first person shooters in general, but Doom (2016) hooked me from the very start of the story. I've bought all of the Doom games on Switch since then, and even double-dipped on a few, getting them on PC first. I'd love to see how the developers would translate Doom's frantic, "stand still and you're dead" style of gameplay into Smash, and Doomguy seems like he'd be an entertaining inclusion.

Dragonborn

Abstaining on the chance rating - I'm not familiar enough with Skyrim to comment.

Want: 65% - I've only played a bit of Skyrim, though I'm aware that it's a popular title, and Bethesda seems on a mission to put it on as many platforms as possible. If Doomguy doesn't make it in, I'd be fine with the Dragonborn getting into Smash, but there are plenty of other third party characters that I'd prefer. I haven't played or seen much of Skyrim, which might be the problem - I'm not sure what would differentiate the Dragonborn from other medieval fantasy characters gameplay-wise aside from Fus Ro Dah.
 
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Sid-cada

Smash Lord
Joined
Jan 19, 2013
Messages
1,784
The Boss

Chance - 0.05% - Not being demanded hurts, only recently on Nintendo hurts more, and being well past peak hurts even more. There are very few legs to stand on, and I can't even find something positive in their direction. I just don't see it.

Want - 25% - There are other characters I would prefer, even among third parties. Open world stuff isn't exactly my thing.


Decidueye

Chance - 0% - Pokemon's a media hype train with no stops. It really only goes forward and never looks back. With Sword and Shield out, Decidueye missed his chance.

Want - 40% - While Decidueye would have been my choice over Incineroar, at this point I'm done with Pokemon at this point. I'd rather give it to another character.


Nominations

Lip X5
 

DaUsername

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Boss
Chance: 0.01%
There's pretty much nothing pointing to the Boss's inclusion aside from "recent Switch port". Just because someone releases a game on Switch doesn't mean that a character from that game will magically show up in Smash.
Want: 40%
I love the Saint's Row series and think the Boss would be pretty fun to play as. But I don't really see any real reason for them to be in Smash.

Archer Owl
Chance: 0%
It had a chance at one point, but failed. If any Pokémon in gonna get in Smash as DLC, it'll be someone from Gen 8.
Want: 1%
I only really "wanted" this guy in the first place because I knew we were gonna get someone from Gen 7. Now that that's out of there isn't much reason for its inclusion anymore.

Doom prediction: 35%
Skyrim prediction: 15%
Noms: The Bard x5
 
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jamesster445

Smash Lord
Joined
May 7, 2015
Messages
1,174
Skyrim port to Smash
Chance: 50%
Want: 50%

Nintendo is DOOMED
Chance: 50%
Want: 100%

It's possible that Bethesda will get a rep in Smash, Vault Boy Mii certainly helps. I can't really say who Bethesda will prioritize. However Doom is something they've been much more vocal about. And quite frankly I'd way rather have the shooty boy. I believe that shooters are one of the biggest genres of gaming while also being one of the most underrepped in Smash, so having one it's pioneers in it would be nothing less than sweet. Also Mick Gordan x Smash Bros, please.

Nomination: Jin Kazama x5
 

Speed Weed

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alright, since we're rating characters who are more interesting to rate than just raining zeroes and abstainers again, i figured now would be the best time for me to return to rate their chances!

and as for today's contenders...

He Who Tears Apart Huge Guts: 5%
imma be honest: he's ****ing dead. it's a shame, really, because were it not for that interview, i'd say he would have had one of the best shots out there. i mean, doom pretty much popularized fpses as a genre, i'd say that's pretty ****ing big. but i do feel the interview is a near-fatal blow to him. there's always the off chance that the funny men over at id software were just really good liars, but i wouldn't bet on that

Want: 40%
i have no attachment to him, but seeing the smash fanbase go all ooh ooh aah aah monkey mode over him would be pretty fun, and i like the concept of a character who's basically, aesthetic and playstyle-wise, just "KILL EVERYTHING RIP AND TEAR DON'T STAND STILL FOR A SECOND". some of that doom music i've listened to is pretty jammin' too, if i do say so myself

hey, you're finally awake:

Chance: 45%
alright, alright, i know, the vault boy mii. that does, in fact, not help him, but i do think it's way less damning and less of a direct disconfirmation than the doomguy interview. regardless of the mii, i think dragonborn still has a damn good case on his hands. we're talking about what is probably THE most famous and influential western rpg on the modern gaming world. i know smash isn't just the wikipedia list for the best-selling videogames, and thankfully so, but if they do end up wanting a super huge character who appeals to the casual western gaming crowd, he is a top candidate.

Want: 5%
to be honest, i'd only want him so that we can have even more todd howard memes, but otherwise i find him pretty uninteresting.
 
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