Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[RouffWestie]

First-party-dominant Pass
Chance: 68%
There's 3 scenarios where I could see this happening.

• 2 FE newcomers + 1 Pokemon

This has a decent chance of happening. FE has a mobile game that could have it's own fighter and we could get another Roy situation for an unannounced new title. Cinderace would likely be the rep in this scenario.

• 2 Pokemon newcomers + 1 FE

This could work seeing as Sword and Shield can be treated as individual titles in the Pokemon franchise. Most likely in this case, Urshifu's version-exclusive forms would each have their own slot. This is an incredibly cost-and-time- effective route to take. Less modeling and rigging has to be done, and I could see Nintendo jumping at this opportunity.

• 1 FE + 1 Pokemon + 1 fan request squeezed in because they were doable at the end of development

There's a ton of popular requests that don't get in because they're not Nintendo's highest priority. It happens in every Smash. With a second DLC pass being sold for the first time in Smash history, I can see them going back to one of these missed opportunities. Rex and Bandanna Dee come to mind, but there's others as well.
There's a good chance any of these could happen. They're characters I can easily see Nintendo including on their own. It's thinking that they'll be included in conjunction with each other that I doubt just a little.

Want: Abstain
I don't categorize my wants by companies. It's hard for me to say I'd be happy with this concept because it's too irrelevant to my taste. I could get Kirby, DK, and Zelda newcomers, but I could hate them or love them depending on who they are.

Nominations: Lip ×5

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

First-party-dominant Pass
Chance: 68%
There's 3 scenarios where I could see this happening.

• 2 FE newcomers + 1 Pokemon

This has a decent chance of happening. FE has a mobile game that could have it's own fighter and we could get another Roy situation for an unannounced new title. Cinderace would likely be the rep in this scenario.

• 2 Pokemon newcomers + 1 FE

This could work seeing as Sword and Shield can be treated as individual titles in the Pokemon franchise. Most likely in this case, Urshifu's version-exclusive forms would each have their own slot. This is an incredibly cost-and-time- effective route to take. Less modeling and rigging has to be done, and I could see Nintendo jumping at this opportunity.

• 1 FE + 1 Pokemon + 1 fan request squeezed in because they were doable at the end of development

There's a ton of popular requests that don't get in because they're not Nintendo's highest priority. It happens in every Smash. With a second DLC pass being sold for the first time in Smash history, I can see them going back to one of these missed opportunities. Rex and Bandanna Dee come to mind, but there's others as well.
There's a good chance any of these could happen. They're characters I can easily see Nintendo including on their own. It's thinking that they'll be included in conjunction with each other that I doubt just a little.

Want: Abstain
I don't categorize my wants by companies. It's hard for me to say I'd be happy with this concept because it's too irrelevant to my taste. I could get Kirby, DK, and Zelda newcomers, but I could hate them or love them depending on who they are.

Nominations: Lip ×5

Sari said this concept means atleast 4 first-parties so you're a character short in each scenario.

You also seem to be going with the absolute worst case scenarios. Scenario 1 shouldn't happen unless they deliberately went for Fire Emblem for being Fire Emblem. FE is already infamous in Smash speculation, even Sakurai knows that, so this would mean they're extremely tonedeaf or actively want to dunk on the anti-FE crowd. Scenario 2, specifically your Urshifu case definitely also won't happen as the same games would be represented double as much on the pass, with two stages and Spirit boards. Not only that, hyping up the pass having 6 characters only for 2 of them to turn out being the same Pokémon sounds like blatant false advertising to me and would make nobody happy. I just cannot see Sakurai accepting something like that.

Edit: Forgot about the Arms rep hurr. Bottom text still stands.

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Second Fighter Pass being mainly first Party

1% Chance

Yeah. I ain't buying this one chief.

To me, thinking that we are getting mainly first parties flies ahead of all of our existing knowledge. In Smash 4, 1 out of 4 DLC newcomers was First Party. Even if you lump in Plant in with the first pass, that is only 2 out of 6, 1 out of 5 if you don't. So, now we are assuming that in spite of DLC seeming to be a boon for third parties, this pass will be primarily (4/6) first party?

Let me list the few characters that I would give a greater than 30% score that are first party. Keep in mind I am assuming we have a decent shot of FP3.
-Rex
-Waluigi

Yep. Those are the only two characters I would put stock in for this pass. I do not think we are getting a Gen 8 character this pass due to the DLC spirits, maybe next pass. That also throws Astral Chain out (sad face). And since we are not doing echos as part of the pass (maybe something separate if we are lucky), that puts the numbers down further.

I know a lot of people might want to go pessimistic for shill picks like a gen 8 mon and somehow another fire emblem mon, or want their most wanted nintendo characters to come through, but I do not see it happening.

0% Want

Smash stopped being a Nintendo only fighting game in Brawl. Concepts like this grasp onto the straws that Smash is still the Nintendo All Star game on the back of Melee's box. That era is past. Smash is now a gaming celebration, and it is clear that Nintendo knows this. Notice how all existing information points to third parties being preferred for DLC, despite in concept it would be easier to make first parties? I understand some people want more first party representation, but to me it genuinely seems we don't need to concern ourselves with that.

Concept: FP2 character comes with an Echo Fighter x5

 

[warpenguin55]

Mostly First Party
Chance: Abstain
Hmm. Call me crazy, but I swear we did this already.

Want: 5%
They are more 1st parties that I don't want than there are 1st parties I do want or I'm neutral towards. I could probably make a list of the ones I don't want too but I'm still remembering characters I need to put on my want list.

3rd parties also are just always going to out hype 1st parties. Not trying to knock 1st parties either, just the way it is. There aren't any Nintendo characters left that would get the same hype as a Master Chief or Leon Kennedy inclusion. Anyone who could do so is already playable. I think the way Smash mostly adds new 1st parties in the base roster and mostly adds new 3rd parties as DLC is the correct way to do it. The most 1st parties I'd like to in the pass see is probably 2.

Noms: Alex Mason x5

Its the best selling game of all time

Sales alone isn't a good popularity metric. It completely removes free to play games like Apex, Fortnite, League, or Pokemon Go (All of which have been insanely popular and still have a player base to this day) from the discussion. You're probably not wrong when you said Minecraft is the most popular game of the decade, but sales alone doesn't tell the full story.

 

[3BitSaurus]

Mostly first party Pass
Chance: 10%
At best, I can see one more first party besides ARMS. But considering the precedent we have for Smash 4 and Ultimate DLC so far, I don't think that's likely in the slightest. And aside from AT/Spirit promotions, there aren't a lot of good options left.

Want: 10%
I'm a bit divided here: on one hand, most of the characters I want are third party. On the other hand, I also have a few first parties that I still want, but sadly, I don't think they stand a chance because if we take the Nintendo newcomers for the last two games into account, then we've unfortunately evolved into a trend where in order to be a first party newcomer in Smash, you either:

a) have to be in a game for current gen
b) must have been in a game in past gen

literally the only two exceptions in 4 and Ultimate are Duck Hunt and K. Rool. Despite calling it a "celebration of gaming", if Corrin and Byleth are any indicator, Nintendo would rather pull from games of theirs that aren't even out yet than pull from games they don't deem "relevant".

So quite literally: if I thought this pattern had a chance of changing, I'd give this a higher want score. But for now, that's the best I can give. If I'm forced to pick between the "shiny new first party" that I have no connection to and the third parties I love and play, I'd rather have the latter.

Predictions
Louie: 19.2%

Nominations
Dark Souls rep x 5

 

[KingofPhantoms]

Well, if you insist that it's not a joke rating, I guess he counts.

KingofPhantoms Well holy ****, I definitely did not expect that day to come up again. I couldn't believe my OCD ass didn't write those up in the extra noms list, but I went back (like, 200 pages back) and indeed, you won the noms, I failed to write them down twice, and you never ended up using them. A promise is a promise, they're all yours!

Well, never mind the fact that you forgot it. I appreciate that you're still allowing me the extra noms I've had all this time. You're awesome. Thank you.

Onto today...

Mostly first party Fighter Pass 2: 30%

Nintendo really seems to be negotiating with other game companies to expand the roster's horizons, and there are plenty of third party games and characters to pull from, but at the same time we already know we're getting an ARMS newcomer and I expect at least one more Pokemon newcomer as well. PLus, they still have quite a number of their own characters to pull from as well, many of whom are popular in their own right. Regardless of the first Pass being mostly third party, I still think it's too early to determine what this one will be like.

Want: 80%

I have most of the third parties I want, the remaining ones I do really want are mostly very unlikely newcomers, and I'm just more interested in more Nintendo characters overall.

Louie Prediction: 7.12%

Nominations: Heavy x5

 

[GoodGrief741]

Oh thank God that's finally over. Now, for another day in which I'm even more of an outlier!

Chance: 90%
I didn't nominate this concept, but I might as well have, because this matches up with my expectations exactly. The reasoning is simple (maybe too simple, I'll admit). First time around, the Pass started out with Joker, we were told he was emblematic of the Pass' direction, and lo and behold, he was - just with a single exception. I think an ARMS character being the first out of the gate for this second Pass speaks volumes, they need to sell the Pass and so they have to bring out the big guns first. The reason why I'm not giving an even higher score is because we still haven't seen who would have been announced on E3, as that's who was probably going to be the biggest character in the Pass. If their biggest character is also a first party, then that settles it.

Tl;dr as of right now, I'm expecting 2 third party characters tops. Depending on who FP7 is, that could change.

Want: 55%
As long as the characters are good, I'm fine either way.

Noms: ****ing Tidus x5
Louie prediction: 5.64%

 

[jamesster445]

Mostly 1st party for Season 2

Chance: 50%
Want: 50%

If Season 1 was all 3rd party than I absolutely would've raised a 1st party season pass higher. However between Sakurai's "new worlds comment" while also crossing out potential new 1st party worlds. I think it's going to be more even. I could go either way so long as the characters are neat.

Nominations: Diablo x5

 

[fogbadge]

mostly 1st party?

chances: 40% i just dont see it myself. i mean its far to difficult the work out where the pass may go, the first one didnt really have a pattern. one things for sure it is far to early to tell. but for what ever reason i dont think we'll be getting many.

want: 100% over all there are more first party characters that want than ones i dont want, the reverse is true of 3rd parties. toad, toadette, chibi-robo rex, qbby, chorus kids the list goes on and on and on. of course knowing my luck itd be the few first parties i dont want so twintelle, edlegard, revali and waluigi. over all ive had better luck with 1st parties than 3rd and i am a nintendo gamer at heart.

nominate nate adamas x5

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

Mostly 1st Party for Season 2

Chance: 20%. It doesn't honestly seem that likely. There's a ton of 1st and 3rd party characters of note. Maybe one or two more, due to some fan favorites choices or Pokemon, but not much else stands out right now.

Want: 0% There's too many of each to give a more clear percentage here. I love that Smash is 1st and 3rd party combined into a tight package. Some of my most wanted are 3rd parties, but same with 1st parties. But either way, I can't calculate a great percentage.

Predictions: Louie x 5%

Noms: Fulgore x 5

 

[DrifloonEmpire]

New Kingdom Hearts game announced, multiplatform but coming to Switch! Potential news for Sora's chances.

https://www.twitter.com/Nibellion/status/1272907158607351812


As for this concept, gonna abstain since we rated a similar concept very recently, and like said concept, this one feels like too much of a toss up to call, given that there's no pattern to this DLC. We have rumors of a couple more third party characters, and the "Pass 2 is low budget" rumor is just an educated guess and unverified. But they also decided to start off the pass with an unrevealed ARMS rep and asked people for three months to buy the pass blindly, so honestly, who knows! Mirroring the All First Party Pass concept, want is a toss up, depending on if the first party choices are desired choices or shill picks.


Nominations:
Austin the Butler x5

Predictions:
Louie - 10.53%

 

[amageish]

So... What is the difference between a Pokemon Presents and a Pokemon Direct...

Mostly First Party Pass

Chance: Abstain. I have opinions, but don't know what number to put to them...

I feel like people are kind of underestimating first parties, which surprises me when ARMS (and, by extension, the possibility of spirit and AT upgrades) is on the table? It is true that unique character DLC has always been biased to third parties (and also new FE games), but we've also never had a DLC season that begins with a unique first-party character. I don't think we have enough data to argue from precedent when there have only been 10 unique newcomers as DLC ever.

Beginning the pass with ARMS makes me think they may be changing the target audience of DLC, slightly at least. The previous Pass focused on big third-party all-stars and seemingly aimed to sell Smash Bros itself in addition to the DLC. I know plenty of Persona fans who were inspired to finally get a Switch with the announcement of Joker in Smash Bros and I think Nintendo/ATLUS intended on that happening with their collaboration. Banjo, meanwhile, inspired a lot of nostalgic people who maybe fell off the Smash bandwagon to get back on in order to fulfill the childhood dreams.

ARMS, meanwhile, is a pretty big game, but it was already in Smash Bros in non-playable roles and I don't think the fanbase is quite as autonomous to Smash Bros as, say, Dragon Quest's or King of Fighters'. I don't think this is being done to sell Smash to ARMS fans insomuch as it was to sell the ARMS DLC itself to Smash fans, if that distinction makes sense. If we take Sakurai at his word, then this will be the final Fighter's Pass and will be the end of what likely will remain the largest Smash Bros game of all time. I think the final six may be designed to enhance the base game content moreso then shock people with giant third parties. In that regard, there are plenty of first party and third party "new worlds" in the base game as spirits or ATs or Pac-Man-taunts or bossfights-with-no-fighter-to-go-with-them that are popular both within the Smash fandom and outside of it. I wouldn't be too surprised if those were the focus and we only got a couple big third-parties in addition to them.

Want: Abstain. I don't know why my walls of text are almost always for concept I abstain on want for... Anyway, I still just want fun and don't especially care about who is the copyright holder of the DLC characters.

Noms: Moogle x 5
Prediction: 3%

 

[GoodGrief741]

Spoiler: Nominations post-Steve pre-Concept: Fighter Pass Volume 2 is mostly first-party

Dr. Eggman x116
Meowth x110
Concept: Upgraded Spirit x110
[Rerate] Kratos x105
[Rerate] Lip x105
D.Va x105
The Stretchers x105

100 - 51

Zelda (BotW sequel) x95
Concept: Pokémon Mystery Dungeon content x86
Moogle x85
Concept: Darksiders rep x80
Sackboy x80
Nate Adams x80
Tidus x80
Proto Man x75
Alex Mason x75
Red (Angry Birds) x70
Fulgore x69
[Rerate] Frisk x65
Concept: A person of color x65
Boss: Ender Dragon x61
Lu Bu (Dynasty Warriors) x60
Shuichi Saihara x60

50 - 25

Dwight Fairfield (Dead by Daylight) x50
Mii Costume: Jill Stingray x50
Concept: SNES-era Final Fantasy rep x50
Echo: Zeraora (Lucario) x45
Concept: Content from currently unreleased game (not Spirit Events) (as of May 17th 2020) x45
The Terrarian x45
[Rerate] Captain Toad x45
[Rerate] Heavy x40
Echo: Dark Bowser (Bowser) x39
Echo: Xion (Sora) x38
Echo: Lord Fredrik (King K. Rool) x37
Stage: Bowser's Castle x35
Gooigi x32
Sakura Shinguji x32
Concept: Second F-Zero rep x31
[Rerate] Saki Amamiya x30
Urbosa x30
Giygas x28
Concept: Assist Trophies added in updates x27
Rival Pokémon Trainer x25
[Rerate] Nightmare x25
Diablo (Diablo) x25

Under 25

Concept: Returning stages x21
Jin Sakai x20
Concept: More ATs as one new item x20
Concept: Dark Souls rep x20
[Rerate] Ezio x20
Zeraora x15
Black Shadow x15
[Rerate] Paper Mario x15
Concept: No Spirit promotions x15
Wolf Link x15
Concept: Fighter Pass Volume 2 is half Nintendo and half third party x15
Austin the Butler (Gardenscapes) x15
[Rerate] Jin Kazama x10
[Rerate] Agumon x10
[Rerate] Monokuma x10
Gran/Djeeta x10
Lora and Jin x10
Otto Matic x10
The Avatar (Ultima) x10
Neptune (Hyperdimension Neptunia) x10
Concept: Bravely Default rep x10
Concept: Rocket League rep x10
[Rerate] Neku Sakuraba x10
Concept: FP2 character comes with an Echo Fighter x10
Boss: Rayquaza x9
Chell x8
[Rerate] Professor Layton x8
Magolor x7
Taranza x6
Concept: Darkstalkers rep x6
Sparky (Clash Royale) x5
Concept: Overwatch character x5
Asha (Wonder Boy) x5
Mii Costume: Hat Kid x5
Concept: Portal 2 rep x5
Breath of the Wild 2 Ganondorf x5
Tick (Brawl Stars) x5
King Graham x5
Concept: Fortnite character x5
[Rerate] Andy x5
Cooking Mama x5
[Rerate] Toxtricity x5
Jill (Drill Dozer) x5
[Rerate] Takamaru x5
Asuka (Senran Kagura) x5
Furret x5
Deku Scrub x5
Mii Costume: Edward Falcon x5
Concept: A LABO character x5
Cynthia x5
Concept: Bonus character x5
John Marston x5
Concept: No AT promotions x5
[Rerate] Quote x5
[Rerate] Morrigan Aensland x5
Concept: Generic Zora x3
Three Mage Sisters x2
Concept: A Pokémon Trainer who fights x2
Concept: A fighter who uses all kicks x2
[Rerate] Metal Sonic x2
Concept: Generic Goron x2
Mii Costume: Jacket x2
Echo (Olimar) x1

Concept: Upgraded Spirit certainly got an upgrade, as it charged into the top seven, took Zelda out, passed The Stretchers, D.Va, Lip, and Kratos, and tied with Meowth for second place.

Nightmare and Diablo reach 25 noms.

A new challenger approaches! It's a rerate of Heavy, with 40 noms!

 

[chocolatejr9]

Abstain. I don't think I can put a number on this. Although I will admit, I can only see two additional first parties (Rex and Euden).

Nominations: Billy Hatcher x5 (I know this won't happen, but I'm more interested in the want scores on this one).

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

Spoiler: Nominations post-Steve pre-Concept: Fighter Pass Volume 2 is mostly first-party

Dr. Eggman x116
Meowth x110
Concept: Upgraded Spirit x110
[Rerate] Kratos x105
[Rerate] Lip x105
D.Va x105
The Stretchers x105

100 - 51

Zelda (BotW sequel) x95
Concept: Pokémon Mystery Dungeon content x86
Moogle x85
Concept: Darksiders rep x80
Sackboy x80
Nate Adams x80
Tidus x80
Proto Man x75
Alex Mason x75
Red (Angry Birds) x70
Fulgore x69
[Rerate] Frisk x65
Concept: A person of color x65
Boss: Ender Dragon x61
Lu Bu (Dynasty Warriors) x60
Shuichi Saihara x60

50 - 25

Dwight Fairfield (Dead by Daylight) x50
Mii Costume: Jill Stingray x50
Concept: SNES-era Final Fantasy rep x50
Echo: Zeraora (Lucario) x45
Concept: Content from currently unreleased game (not Spirit Events) (as of May 17th 2020) x45
The Terrarian x45
[Rerate] Captain Toad x45
[Rerate] Heavy x40
Echo: Dark Bowser (Bowser) x39
Echo: Xion (Sora) x38
Echo: Lord Fredrik (King K. Rool) x37
Stage: Bowser's Castle x35
Gooigi x32
Sakura Shinguji x32
Concept: Second F-Zero rep x31
[Rerate] Saki Amamiya x30
Urbosa x30
Giygas x28
Concept: Assist Trophies added in updates x27
Rival Pokémon Trainer x25
[Rerate] Nightmare x25
Diablo (Diablo) x25

Under 25

Concept: Returning stages x21
Jin Sakai x20
Concept: More ATs as one new item x20
Concept: Dark Souls rep x20
[Rerate] Ezio x20
Zeraora x15
Black Shadow x15
[Rerate] Paper Mario x15
Concept: No Spirit promotions x15
Wolf Link x15
Concept: Fighter Pass Volume 2 is half Nintendo and half third party x15
Austin the Butler (Gardenscapes) x15
[Rerate] Jin Kazama x10
[Rerate] Agumon x10
[Rerate] Monokuma x10
Gran/Djeeta x10
Lora and Jin x10
Otto Matic x10
The Avatar (Ultima) x10
Neptune (Hyperdimension Neptunia) x10
Concept: Bravely Default rep x10
Concept: Rocket League rep x10
[Rerate] Neku Sakuraba x10
Concept: FP2 character comes with an Echo Fighter x10
Boss: Rayquaza x9
Chell x8
[Rerate] Professor Layton x8
Magolor x7
Taranza x6
Concept: Darkstalkers rep x6
Sparky (Clash Royale) x5
Concept: Overwatch character x5
Asha (Wonder Boy) x5
Mii Costume: Hat Kid x5
Concept: Portal 2 rep x5
Breath of the Wild 2 Ganondorf x5
Tick (Brawl Stars) x5
King Graham x5
Concept: Fortnite character x5
[Rerate] Andy x5
Cooking Mama x5
[Rerate] Toxtricity x5
Jill (Drill Dozer) x5
[Rerate] Takamaru x5
Asuka (Senran Kagura) x5
Furret x5
Deku Scrub x5
Mii Costume: Edward Falcon x5
Concept: A LABO character x5
Cynthia x5
Concept: Bonus character x5
John Marston x5
Concept: No AT promotions x5
[Rerate] Quote x5
[Rerate] Morrigan Aensland x5
Concept: Generic Zora x3
Three Mage Sisters x2
Concept: A Pokémon Trainer who fights x2
Concept: A fighter who uses all kicks x2
[Rerate] Metal Sonic x2
Concept: Generic Goron x2
Mii Costume: Jacket x2
Echo (Olimar) x1

Concept: Upgraded Spirit certainly got an upgrade, as it charged into the top seven, took Zelda out, passed The Stretchers, D.Va, Lip, and Kratos, and tied with Meowth for second place.

Nightmare and Diablo reach 25 noms.

A new challenger approaches! It's a rerate of Heavy, with 40 noms!

No offense to the person rating it but I really hope we get the ARMS character shown to us before Upgraded Spirit is on the schedule.

 

[Playstation Guy 1000]

Mostly First party pass
Chance:35%-while it is likely, I'm not expecting more than 4 first party characters and it's too early to tell since the arms rep is just the first dlc rep that was announced for volume 2.
Want:40%-while I wouldn't mind having more first party characters than third party ones, I prefer having third party since they are admittedly more hype than most of the first party characters.
Predictions:Louie-6%
Noms:Neptune x5

 

[DanganZilla5]

Looks like I will be an outlier too. I'm surprised by these scores considering the scores for the "No third party" (I think it was that) day.

Chance: 60%

Joker started the last pass and look at how that went. ARMS started the second pass and I think that's telling. People are saying there are not many good first party options left. What???!! We have Rex, Waluigi, Paper Mario, Isaac, Dixie Kong, Bandanna Dee, among others plus Pokemon and a potential BOTW 2 character or even a Metroid character. There is more than enough first party characters to make a hype pass. Yes the focus has been on third parties for DLC but there is still room and plenty of demand for first parties and the aforementioned characters have plenty of reasons to be included.

But I will say that I think for now the most likely outcome is an even 3/3 split. It just makes the most sense to me.

Want: 40%

My top 9 most wanted characters are third party so I can't say I would fully support this idea. Yes we would get some third parties in this scenario but the 3/3 split is more desirable to me. But even if we get 4 first party characters, if they are hype like say Spring Man, Waluigi, Rex and Bandanna Dee, that would still excite me. But I know they are going to have a shill in there somewhere which is preventing me from giving this a higher score. But at this point I just want to see some hype characters like Rex and I want to have some hope there will be several really good characters, regardless if they are first party or third party.

Prediction: Louie - 3%

Noms: Ezio x5

 

[Sari]

Concept: Fighter Pass 2 Mostly First Party

Chance: 50%
It could go either way. I think Rex is super likely and there are some other recent/upcoming games for them to add characters. Not to mention there are also fan favorite choices like Waluigi that they could go back on. That said though, third parties seem to have been a big success so far so I think we'll definitely see more of them in this pass.

Want: Abstain
My first party vs third party character want ratio is about the same. I don't really care about what company a character I like is from so I'm basically split. If we get 6 amazing first party characters, great! If we get 6 amazing third party characters, great! As long as we get some sort of first/third party mix, I won't really complain so I'm just gonna abstain.

Louie chance prediction: 1.50%

Nominations:
Quote x5

 

[BowserKing]

Second Fighter's Pass is mostly First Party

Chance: 50%. By the looks of it, given how expensive Third Parties are, I think it's more likely that, while there would be at least 2 Third Parties, First Parties would outnumber Third Parties by twice the amount. Plus there is quite a bit of promotional games (Pokémon Sword/Shield, Breath of the Wild 2, Paper Mario and Metroid Prime 4) that may or may not get reps in the near future.

Want: 100%. While there are two Third Parties I want in the Fighter's Pass (Shantae and Geno, while Geno is technically a Mario rep), I think that having more Nintendo characters will help Smash out. As for those characters from Nintendo I want in the fighter's Pass, I totally support, Sylux, Lugia and Adeleine in that fighter's Pass, joining Shantae and Geno as well. Plus they won't be that pricy.

Prediction: Louie (5%)

Noms: 2 for Echo: Dark Bowser (14E) and 3 for Concept: Second F-Zero Rep

 

[Proceleon]

I laugh. 0% on both accounts.
While there are Nintendo series that could do with a boost, there is no timeline where I'd want DLC to best mostly Nintendo, there are far too many connections in Nintendo's pocket to waste the opportunity.
As for chances, the Smash community has the wrong idea entirely when it comes to speculation. An ARMS character coming first does not in ANY way suggest a "theme" for the rest of the DLC. People thought we were getting all third parties before Byleth, and now they think if Spring Man gets in the DLC MUST be mostly Assists or Spirits, which is just completely unrealistic. There is no theme. No "Assist Pass", no "Villains Pass", no themed DLC.

 

[Drason]

Chance: 5%
I highly doubt they would go with an all-out first party selection considering how many popular third-party characters are being requested. They want to sell as many as these things as they can so they'll obviously mix in some of the popular ones with the hidden gems.
Want:50%
I'm just curious at which fighters they'll pick at this point so it really doesn't matter to me who they pick as they're fun and don't break the game. I also want to a higher chance to see Paper Mario and Geno in.

 

[3DSNinja]

Abstain
Nominations: Shuichi Saihara x5

 

[RetrogamerMax]

Chance 25%: I have a little bit of faith in a majority of the Pass being just Nintendo characters but I don't think it's very likely it's going to happen. At most, I think the Arms rep and maybe one more Nintendo character will probably be at the end will be the only Nintendo characters we get in the Pass. I think the other 4 at most will all be 3rd party.

Want 100%: Most of my most wanted are Nintendo characters so of course I want this to happen.

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

Chance: 5%
I highly doubt they would go with an all-out first party selection considering how many popular third-party characters are being requested. They want to sell as many as these things as they can so they'll obviously mix in some of the popular ones with the hidden gems.

It's worth clarifying "mostly 1st party" means at least 4 1st parties. So they can still have both. The specific thing being rated isn't all-1st party pass, keep in mind.

 

[GoodGrief741]

I'll never get the logic behind statements like "they won't ignore third parties, there's too many popular characters there". You know, the reverse is true too, right?

 

[Jomosensual]

I'll never get the logic behind statements like "they won't ignore third parties, there's too many popular characters there". You know, the reverse is true too, right?

The difference is that for DLC they've shown that they can and will ignore popular first party characters for 3rd party reps. Through all our DLC they haven't shown the reverse yet.

 

[chocolatejr9]

The difference is that for DLC they've shown that they can and will ignore popular first party characters for 3rd party reps. Through all our DLC they haven't shown the reverse yet.

What are you talking about? People LOVE Fire Emblem!

 

[3BitSaurus]

The difference is that for DLC they've shown that they can and will ignore popular first party characters for 3rd party reps. Through all our DLC they haven't shown the reverse yet.

I mean... by that logic you could argue that's basically what they did with PP and Byleth. The former was a surprise pick and the latter's game wasn't even out when they were chosen.

I don't think "ignoring first/third parties because of third/first parties" is the line of thought Nintendo is pursuing as a whole.

 

[GoodGrief741]

The difference is that for DLC they've shown that they can and will ignore popular first party characters for 3rd party reps. Through all our DLC they haven't shown the reverse yet.

Until they didn't. I mean, we are getting a fighter from ARMS. That's a first party franchise that isn't being ignored in favor of 3rd party reps.

Or, what, when a third party character gets in, they're deliberately ignoring first parties, but when a first party gets in (which is what's happened for the last two characters), they aren't ignoring third parties? Because that's kind of a double standard.

 

[fogbadge]

I'll never get the logic behind statements like "they won't ignore third parties, there's too many popular characters there". You know, the reverse is true too, right?

you think by know wed have all learned that what we think sakurai will do and what sakurai does doesnt always match

except in regards to FE

 

[Ridrool64]

Mario Party 1 is mid, tbh

Chance: Actually it's one of the three ways I see this pass going. 33.4%. (the other two are even stevens and a slight third party lean: anything more or less begins to sound rather strange, and an all third party pass is literally impossible)

While still technically dependant on the ARMS rep, that's only in the sense of "which characters will be picked" vs. "will it be the case". Them starting with the ARMS rep means a little less than you might imagine, but it could be a sort of "clue" anyway to the focus of the pass. Nintendo has a lot of characters to fill out a pass even with only characters from unrepresented games (SwSh DLC, BotW 2, and Metroid Prime 4 are probably the most obvious candidates, but another Mario or Fire Emblem character probably isn't impossible). That's not even accounting for the characters who have content, and the ARMS rep could open the door to them, too.

Now, the third party characters are still likelier for the I-was-gonna-be E3 2020 reveal, and if it gets that long the E3 2021 reveal. Hasn't been once since 2001 that featured Smash without a third party, and that was back during Melee. So that's why I can see at least 2 third parties.

Want: **** it, 50%. I don't care who's in the pass anymore (beyond the characters that I'm partial towards or would rather not have) because I'm slowly getting drained of any genuine care for Ultimate. Still has wiggle room for my favorites, so that's fine and dandy enough. But I'm mostly here because... I dunno. Maybe I just wanna see some crazy nominations that make me go "hey actually..." or at least something entertaining. Maybe it's just my impatience finally taking over, but right now I'd settle for anything.

Red x 5. Louie is just not happening, but I'd really like it. 2.50%.

 

[NintenRob]

Hmm an interesting day.

Chance: I'll go straight down the middle and say 50%
We have two first party characters in a row already, so to disregard it entirely would be dumb. And we're on our second pass which likely has even less budget. I feel like ARMS is an indication of adding characters they wanted in base game but couldn't.
Want: 100%
Yes, my I want Nintendo characters, I play Nintendo games primarily. I love Smash Bros because it's a Nintendo crossover. There are some third parties I appreciate and even love having, but they're becoming fewer and further apart. Additions like Joker just make me roll my eyes.

Nominate person of colour x5


Prediction Louie? 3%

 

[fogbadge]

Additions like Joker just make me roll my eyes.

that is pretty much how i reacted when i saw him on the website

 

[Ninjaed]

Concept: FP2 is mostly 1st party

Chance: 1%
Never say never, but if mostly 1st party means 4+ out of 6 are 1st party, that means 2 or fewer are 3rd party. The odds of that are very low. Most requested 1st party now are nowhere near as popular as many 3rd party candidates. Even Astral Chain is seemingly out of the running, and while you can come up with a 100% Nintendo-owned Fighter Pass, it isn't the way Smash has been going. Sakurai himself acknowledged it. So no, given the circumstances, 2 or fewer 3rd party reps is pretty much unthinkable.

Want: abstain
Far too vague, I don't like or dislike Nintendo characters equally. Or 3rd party characters equally, for that matter. Some I'd love to see in, others I'd hate to see in. And even that isn't telling enough. I was skeptical about Byleth but I did like FE3H and she wasn't a purely swordie. Now I enjoy playing her despite my initial doubts. So yeah, abstain because I can't give an actual, meaningful rating here.

Predictions: Louie - 0.6%
Nominations: D.Va x5

 

[Jomosensual]

Welp, can probably not expect Arms to happen next week now either

 

[DaUsername]

Abstaining. This concept is kinda hard to give numbers to.
Louie prediction: 2%
Noms: Upgraded Spirit x5

No offense to the person rating it but I really hope we get the ARMS character shown to us before Upgraded Spirit is on the schedule.

You want me to nom this even faster? Because I can do that.

 

[Calamitas]

So am I the only one who was not expecting a Nintendo Direct around this time? I pretty much gave up hope for anything like that back when that insider info about there being no planes for one got spread.
Anyway though. . .

Mario Party 1

Chance: 30%
It's certainly a possibility, but I wouldn't count on it. Regardless, it could very well be that the ARMS character is going to set a precedent for the remainder of the pass, just like Joker did.

Want: 95%
I mean, I stopped caring about any of the third-party additions to Smash after Bayonetta. Right now I could only think of three third-party characters that I'd still want (Amaterasu, Phoenix Wright and a Bravely Default character), and I don't really see the chances for any of them. Whereas for first-party characters, I can only think of one that I'd be actively against. . . and we rated that one not too long ago. So yeah, bring on the first-parties.

Predicting Louie to get around 0.75%.

Nominating Concept: A person of colour x5

 

[amageish]

Welp, can probably not expect Arms to happen next week now either

I mean, if this was a proper E3 season, then there would have been tonnes of competing announcements anyway... It's possible they would do Pokemon news and Smash news in the same week. Smash presentations have usually been on Tuesdays or Thursdays, not Wednesdays, anyway.

It'd rather it not fall on top of the NG+ Expo though...

 

[YoshiandToad]

First Party Mostly
Chance: 75%
Yeah, sorry, but I do buy this.
Third Party acquisition is expensive. The budget is said to be decreasing constantly and first party rights are a lot more simple and cheaper to obtain than third. Crash Bandicoot was famously too expensive to be added into PlayStation All Stars because Activision demanded more money for his inclusion than the entire budget allowed.

Now, I don't think it'll be ALL first party, but I can easily see a situation where we at most get 1-2 third parties due to budget issues.

"But it won't sell"
Yes it will, don't kid yourself. Smash fans will obsessively purchase all the DLC fighters because they want the complete roster. You're frankly an idiot if you think a first party wouldn't sell as DLC to the majority of the player base. Not everyone, granted, but a good chunk of the fanbase is like that.

Whilst ARMS was a success it's no where near the level of "holy crap everyone loves this" success that Splatoon was, and you'd usually want to start a new Fighters Pass off on a strong foot to explain why people should purchase it.

With that in mind why on earth if they had access to a more popular third party would they NOT start with that?
Do they believe in ARMS so much that they think it'd be as big a deal as a big name third party to the fans? Or is it likely the budgets running dry for Smash DLC at this point and some sort of compromise is going to need to be made. Perhaps they just realised there's no need to go for more expensive fighters since as previously stated, people who are going to buy Smash DLC already have bought Smash.

I believe a lot of people are in for a rude wake up call. The budget is not infinite and third party deals are expensive.
They allegedly cannot make another Joker style trailer with what they currently have, and even the presentations for the DLC characters are getting more home grown each time.

Want: 70%
I'm one of the few I know who hasn't bought a single DLC thus far. Frankly none of the newcomers have really excited me. Joker actively killed any hype for the DLC period I had, but I know I'm in the minority. The wants that low because unless it's specifically one of my Most Wanted(and really only Toad if I'm honest) I'm unlikely to care enough to buy the Fighters Pass until the last character is revealed.

I'd much prefer first party to third party personally, but it's down to which first parties to how excited I get. There's some third parties that would genuinely excite me, but they're all long(or frankly impossible) shots like Team Fortress 2's Heavy or the ever unpopular in Japan and second banana to Crash, Spyro. So eh, guess I'm all in on first party.

Louie prediction: 0.05%
Nominate: Cadence X 5

 

[fogbadge]

would you bump the toad thread so we can talk about lego toad, i would have done but i was the last to post in there