Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[NintenRob]

I believe Carmen Sandiego is owned by "The Learning Company"


That's still unreal to me, maybe this will be the spark a rise in support for the future of Smash speculation

 

[Cadillac]

Abstain again. I'm not really familiar with him.

Paper Mario: 20.3%

Noms: Hornet(Hollow Knight) x5

 

[GoodGrief741]

Good lord, top 5? That's honestly insane for someone like Carmen.

What is the current top ten?

Edit: just thought, this would also have to be the largest gap between Chance and want as well wouldn't it?

The top 10 really depends on how you count them, I'll do a quick breakdown.

Spoiler: Spoilered for length

For chance
First-parties after the Fighter Pass (confirmed)
Concept: All DLC will be third-party (disconfirmed)
Erdrick (confirmed)
Ryu Hayabusa
Crash Bandicoot
No fan favorites/highly requested characters (voted as disconfirmed)
Resident Evil rep (potentially disconfirmed)
Akira Howard (potentially disconfirmed)
More DLC (confirmed)
Lloyd Irving
Dante
Another Western character
Travis Touchdown
Phoenix Wright
Geno
Leon S. Kennedy (potentially disconfirmed)
Sora
Second Fighter Pass (confirmed)
Jill Valentine (potentially disconfirmed)
Arle Nadja
Kazuma Kiryu

For want
Second Fighter Pass (confirmed)
More DLC (confirmed)
First-parties after the Fighter Pass (confirmed)
Boss Rush
Crash Bandicoot
Echo Fighters as DLC
Stages outside the Fighter Pass
Bandana Dee
100 characters
Phoenix Wright
Standalone stage as DLC
Dixie Kong
Carmen Sandiego
Any new Xenoblade character
Another Western character
Lara Croft
Isaac
Kazuma Kiryu
Akira Howard (potentially disconfirmed)
Ryu Hayabusa
Dante

The thing about distance between chance and want would probably go to a concept, those tend to be rated in the extremes. But as far as characters go, I can't think of any other ones that would fit the bill. Maybe Dante when he was seen as disconfirmed, but that would be an outdated score.

[tbh IDK, pls help here]

The owners of the Carmen Sandiego IP are Houghton Mifflin Harcourt.

This is a really bizarre turn of events.

 

[Drason]

Quote Mii-30% Chance; Indie game, pretty popular cult following but that doesn't guarantee anything. Though if Sans is anything to go by...
73% Want
Love Cave Story's music so that's a reason. Also Quote would be an interesting choice for the Miis.

Paper Mario-20% Chance; Popular subset of the Mario series but realistically probably not going to get another rep. Or maybe it will, I don't know what goes through Sakurai's head.
76%-Want; I just like a Thousand Year Door. Also I'm interested if they'd use the purely RPG elements for the moveset or incorporate the Super Paper Mario game.

 

[chocolatejr9]

Quote Mii-30% Chance
73% Want
Love Cave Story's music

Paper Mario-20% Chance
76%-Want

You, um... you're gonna need more than that...

 

[OnyanRings]

-Quote as a Mii costume-
Want : ...Unsure
Weird rating huh ? Well here's the thing : Cave story is one of my favorite games ever made, right up there with MOTHER 2/3, the very first Pc/Indie game i've ever played and completed, which obviouskly makes Quote a top 5 pick amongst my most wanted.
It goes without saying that i'd rather see him make a playable appearance rather than just him being a mii costume.

However, call me pessimistic but i really doubt he's going to make it that way, and seeing how well the indie mii costumes have been treated (High quality model and remix), i'd say that it would be better than having nothing at all, which is why i'm torn between giving it a 0 or a 100.

Ultimately, i think i'll give it a :

100 % Want (any sort of recognition would be good) and a 70 % Chance (Sakurai does seem to show a lot more interest for indie gaming this time around and Cave Story remain a staple of the genre to this day).

-Nominations-
Monokuma & Junko Enoshima tag team. x5

 

[Perkilator]

I believe now’s the time to move on to Paper Mario?

 

[Icedragonadam]

Quote Costume Extravaganza!

Chance: 15%. Cave Story is one of the most recognizable Indie games so it's possible for it get a premium mii costume. But I hear that the developer is stingy as Square Enix so I doubt it.

Want: ABSTAINED. Do'n have that much knowledge on Quote's character.

Paper Mario Prediction: 16%

Nominate Darksiders Rep x10

 

[Calamitas]

Quote the raven, nevermore

Chane 40%
I suppose I could see it happen? Cave Story is, as far as I know, a rather old and influental indie game made by a Japanese developer, so it has these things going for it. Don't really know what else to say on that.

Want: Abstain
I haven't played Cave Story. I'll say though that I haven't heard good things about the company owning the rights, so that's hurting my potential want.

Predicting Paper Mario to get around 19.42%

Nominating Concept: A New Zelda Character x5.

 

[Sari]

Day over.

Rate Paper Mario from the Paper Mario series.

Predict Reporter & Wrestler from Rhythm Heaven.

Megadoomer

-----

Some songs to get into the Paper Mario mood:

Spoiler: Paper Mario Music

 

[Perkilator]

Paper Mario
Chance: 50%
Given that it’s Mario’s 35th anniversary this year, plus all the rumors about, this would be a good time to use a Mario character. However, so far it’s only rumors, and thankfully not a sick April Fool’s joke.

Want: 50%
Ive never really played a Paper Mario game. I do, however, have Paper Jam that I’ve owned since 2016, and I sorta gave up at the first visit to Bowser’s Castle. I’ve seen enough of Paper Mario there, and I wouldn’t be opposed to seeing him.

Reporter & Wrestler: 0%

Noms: Sirfetch’d x5

 

[Ridrool64]

There's likely some kinda origami joke I could make here, but I think I'll fold from that discussion.

Chance: Prefacing this will be a blanket 45%, because there's a few factors at play, even assuming Spirits are on the table again. Paper Mario was a very popular request in Smash 4, probably the most popular one to not get more than a Trophy. While he definitely got eaten by Waluigi and Geno's support booms (in no small part due to his reputation slowly falling apart due to two releases panned by the fans), the character is still somewhat underground but decently popular. He's virtually immune to Mii Costumes due to not being a 3D character as well, pretty much the only thing that could kill him.

But now we are in an era where Paper Mario is on the table for a promotional pick... maybe. There are currently rumors of a new set of Mario games, including a Paper Mario switch game. Now if this comes to fruition, he could go as high as 80%, being a decently popular old-school request that also draws attention to a new game. Now if this DOESN'T come to fruition, he has to get past King Boo, and that's pretending Waluigi/Geno have no shot, otherwise they probably destroy him too. I'd go as low as 10% in this case, never truly out but in high doubt.

Want: 85%. If I could have any first party character, make it this guy. Anybody who thinks he would be a clone of Mario is, I'm sorry, talking pure bull**** out of their mouth. The guy could have five different movesets and still have room for something in Smash we've never seen before. Also, if Banjo & Kazooie are any indication, Paper Mario would be given a moveset that calls back to all of his history, not just the most recent game. Which is good, because a big reason why I support him is because while he's only in third place overall, he's the character I've wanted the longest. Paper Mario is the only first party character left who wouldn't just make me go "oh, neat, nice for the fans", but get hyped. Maybe even cry.

Uh... Concept: SNES-Era Final Fantasy rep x 5. Yes I know it has next to no chance after Cloud but I think the net of characters it includes (Cecil, Rydia, Bartz, Terra, Celes, Kefka) is worth discussing. The Reporter and Wrestler are popular, but like Rhythm Heaven is no stranger to characters constantly competing and I don't see what the edge is beyond having an internet mini-sensation over, say, Karate Joe. 2.74%.

 

[Cadillac]

Paper Mario

Chance: 19%
A first party character and quite popular. Pretty surprised we didn't get a Paper Mario rep yet. With the Mario rumors, maybe they can promote the new Paper Mario game by putting Paper Mario in Smash, if there is one. The thing that hinders his chance for me is that he's a base game spirit. However if Nintendo wants to promote him they might ignore that and just put him in anyways. Overall, I think he has some chance, but not guaranteed.

Want: Abstain. I never played any Paper Mario games before.

Reporter & Wrestler: 1.12%

Noms: Hornet(Hollow Knight) x5

 

[Honest Slug]

Paper Mario

Chance: 10%
I just don't see him as likely. He was a pretty popular pick in the Smash 4 era, but ever since Ultimate his fanbase has been very quiet and there just isn't much clamoring for him anymore. Waluigi and Geno have surpassed him by a lot in popularity. Perhaps if Paper Mario Switch is any good (I suspect a lot of the faded enthusiasiam for Paper Mario comes from the new direction the series has taken, and fears that his moveset would be Sticker Star/Color Splash focused) that could be the spark to reignite his support, but at that point it'd be too little too late. Perhaps he could work as a promotional pick, taking fan demand aside, but there's only so many characters that could be included in the second fighters pass. He'll have to compete with Rex & Pyra, a Gen 8 Pokemon and lots of others I find more likely. It's just difficult to imagine a scenario where Paper Mario is chosen for DLC.

Want: 100%
Which is a shame cuz he's perhaps my most wanted fighter at the moment. The first 3 Paper Mario games are some of my favorites, and I have extremely fond memories of them. Not only that but Paper Mario has tons of moveset potential. The amount of partners, items and attacks you can use from the first 3 games is practically limitless. I'd be very happy with Geno too, but for me TTYD edges out SMRPG as the best Mario RPG.

 

[DanganZilla5]

Mr Mario & Watch

Chance: 26%

A lot of Paper Mario's potential will lie in whether or not the rumors of another Paper Mario game come true. It is Mario's 35th Anniversary so it does make sense to add another Mario character, especially since Arms is a good sign for first party characters this pass. Paper Mario is highly requested and has a lot of content not in the game yet. Sure we got a stage and some music and spirits, but there is a lot of content that they still haven't covered yet.

My biggest concern is competition from Waluigi and Geno who have as loud, if not, louder of a fanbase than Paper Mario. Plus to my knowledge, Paper Mario hasn't gotten that much attention from Nintendo in recent years and Color Splash got some mixed reception which certainly doesn't help out if we don't end up getting a Paper Mario game in the near future. Still, Paper Mario has a good chance with unique moveset potential and legacy to boot.

Want: 60%

The Paper Mario games are charming and have great music and visuals. Paper Mario himself has practically a bible-long list of abilities and items to make for an awesome moveset. There is quite a bit of content from Paper Mario that is missing from Smash and it would be nice to have this side of Mario be more represented.

Prediction: Reporter and Wrestler - 1.39%

Noms: Contra rep x5

 

[Wunderwaft]

Paper Mario

Chance: 40%
I think Paper Mario has a decent shot at getting in, assuming there IS a Paper Mario coming to the Switch of course. The character is decently popular and comes from a series of well received games (well at least until Sticker Star came along and ruined everything). I can see Paper Mario getting in to promote the hypothetical Paper Mario game for the Switch, at the very least many insiders spoke of it's existence so there is merit to this line of thought.

Want: 50%
This has to be the character with the biggest feelings I'm mixed about. I love Paper Mario and I do want to see him playable someday. However there are two points that make me conflicted about this character. The first point is that it means Waluigi didn't get his chance AGAIN and I want to see a playable Waluigi much more than Paper Mario. The second point depends on the moveset of Paper Mario, if he comes with a Sticker Star or Color Splash moveset my interest on the character is gonna be deflated. If the moveset takes references from the first three games then my want score rises to 75%.


Prediction: Reporter and Wrestler 3.6%
Nomination: The Avatar (Ultima) x5

 

[Jomosensual]

Paper Mario

Chance 2 - Don't think this is happening. He's likely a echo or semi of Mario and I don't think they would pick one for the pass. Also have Waluigi and Geno as significantly more requested characters from the series who would also be unique characters. There's also just better promotional picks than Paper Mario

Want 0 - Good lord no. Have no interest in echos or semi clones in the fighters pass and I'm even less interested when there's already two Marios in the game. Do not want at all. Even if you can make him unique I don't really want him because I'm good on Marios in the game

Predictions
Reporter and Wrestler - .5%

Noms:
Falinks x5

 

[NintenRob]

Paper Mario is a choice that never personally appealed. To me his just Mario in a different artstyle (and yes, I know Toon Link exist), and with a cast as diverse as the Mario crew, I'd just prefer anyone else. I do understand why people want him, Paper Mario is fairly lacking in representation. And he does have decent moveset potential. And he's not my least wanted Mario character (that would be Geno) so I guess he'd be alright. I wouldn't say his chances are that great, He has to compete with Toad, Waluigi and King Boo. And Colour Splash and Sticker Star aren't exactly fan favourites. I know a return to form is rumoured so that helps. But I dunno

Chance 24%
Want 45%

Nominate someone who isn't the star of their own game x5

 

[Sid-cada]

Paper Mario

Chance - 15% - Paper Mario's in a tough spot. I'm willing to accept another Mario, but who knows about the rest of the world. The world of Paper has been on a downturn lately, but he still has some loyal fans. While he might get in if there is a certain upswing (a new game might do that), I think that he is simply outclassed in demand by other characters.

Want - 50% - Take him or leave him, I don't care. He's certainly earned a spot, but I personally don't find his moveset overly interesting enough for me to actively root for him. I think implementation will mostly amount to what I think.


Predictions

Reporter and Wrestler - 0.24% - Joe exists...

Nominations

Nippon Ichi rep X5

 

[3DSNinja]

The Ultimate Show

Chance: 60%: I can see both him and Geno, and with the hints of a new Paper Mario, he could be a good shill character like Isaac. As well, he is a popular suggestion who probably did decently in the ballot.
Want:100%: I'd honestly give him 100% just because we have a chance of getting The Ultimate Show. But he's a unique character with unique moves and a potentially awesome incorporation of partners, or hell the Stylish systems like in his game. Plus, THE MUSIC BABY!

Nominations: Minato Arisato x5

 

[Cadillac]

I'm just worried that if PM gets in, he might be a Mario semi-clone.

 

[GoodGrief741]

He's likely a echo or semi of Mario and I don't think they would pick one for the pass.

I'm just worried that if PM gets in, he might be a Mario semi-clone.

...How

 

[3DSNinja]

have none of you played a single paper mario game? Between partners, badges, Pixls, he's even stickers and cafds, Paper Mario would play nothing like Mario.

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

So I recently thought I lost my copy of thousand year door but it turns out my brother borrowed it without asking or returning it
Chance: 20%
We'll have to wait and see when it comes to that rumoured Paper Mario game. Perhaps if that game does come to fruition Nintendo would be willing to pick Paper Mario as a promotinal pick, although we've had some games that they could've done that for too yet were just given a spirit event instead. He has a decently sized support base but I just don't think it's quite big enough compared to others to make much of a difference. Lastly, while I firmly believe he wouldn't play similiar to the Marios we already have, I'm not sure Nintendo thinks the same way. Perhaps they'd just think that regular Mario already represents the PM series, and that there's no need to theme a challenger pack after it. After all, we do already have a stage from those games.

Want: 80%
I've already expressed in the past that my hype for Paper Mario as a fighter would depend on which games he drew influence from. Tho with the rumoured game supposedly being a return to form and Nintendo+Sakurai now likely knowing about the feedback after Sticker Star and Color Splash. I'm more confident inspiration will be drawn from the games people actually like, mainly the first two with a partner system and all, which would be way exciting. Now I've only played TTYD but despite me not having beat it, it might just be my favorite game.

Reporter and Wrestler: 2.15%
Alucard x5

 

[DrifloonEmpire]

Paper Mario

Chance: 20% - First party pick that had a lot of fan demand during the Smash 4 days, but no doubt lost a lot of steam recently. As stated earlier, Waluigi and Geno have really eaten up a lot of the support on the Mario side, and we're long past the time where Smash 4 era fan demand would be a powerful driving force (Ultimate's prerelease period would've been that time). Furthermore, Sticker Star and Color Splash really killed a lot of hype for the character, and considering they're the most recent games a lot of fans are afraid of getting their character only to have them represent the worst games in the Paper franchise (though Sakurai likes to look at a character's whole history so he wouldn't let them restrict him to two games).

With the recent rumors of a new game, he could very well pop up as a promotional pick, but hinges on that rumor turning out to be real. With how secrative Nintendo's been in recent months we don't know how something like that could leak, but it's certainly possible.

Want: 70% - While Super Paper Mario is the only Paper Mario game I've played, I've experienced the first two through watching my friends play, and I have to say all three of them have been an absolute joy. Paper Mario is criminally underrepresented in Smash and I believe that Sakurai could make an incredibly creative moveset with the material the games provide. Plus it'd be cool to see the partners integrated as well! Parakarry recovery, Bow assisting in dodges, and even having Goombella chime in for one of his taunts and provide Paper Mario-style tattles on the various characters! What we'd get is a character brimming with personality and charm!


Nominations:
Concept: Civilization series stage with music (standalone) x15

Predictions:
Reporter and Wrestler - 0.65%

 

[BowserKing]

Paper Mario

Chance: 15%. Surprisingly, while he is a spirit, he is not a spirit you can fight. Either way, the chance of him getting in is a bit more likely then some. However, he will face against some competition, and chances are, he may not be the Mario rep that is going to be DLC. But it is not impossible however, but the main issue is that we have 2 Mario's, but a Third one would balance out the Mario's and Links.

Want: 55%. He would be a fun character to play as, with multiple different moveset to make him different from Mario. I can see fighting him on both stages. Speaking of which, Paper Mario's stage is already available in the base game, so all we need is a few more soundtracks. Overall, Paper Mario would be a unique fighter and a fun one at that.

Prediction: Reporter and Wrestler (10%)

Noms: 2 for Returning Stages and 3 for Concept: Bowser's Castle Stage

 

[Ninjaed]

Paper Mario

Chance: 0%
Main reason why I'm giving a 0 is because that's typically the kind of character you'd expect to be added in the base roster. Like Daisy. Even more so considering it's been ages since the last game. There's also the fact the Mario franchise got a new rep in Piranha Plant. I just don't see Nintendo going out of their way to make him a DLC out of all the characters in the Mario-verse, let alone all the series (1st party or not) they could pick someone from. I mean, they never bothered to revive Paper Mario all these years. Clearly their priorities lie elsewhere. Even Mario Maker features only as a Mario alt, and those games were huge. You'll probably disagree with me but it's fine. This is the way I see it. I'd rate him higher in a base roster but as DLC, I simply can't fathom it with the current circumstances.

Now for a bit of fun slandering, we already have: Mario, Mario Careers Doctor, not Mario, bad Mario. Even the Links stopped at 3! Well 3.5 with Mii SF.
As for that rumour, it is just that. A rumour. If it gets confirmed and we re-rate Paper Mario, my score would change accordingly as it'd invalidate part of my reasoning.

Want: 40%
I really enjoyed the games back then, even though I've never been too big on the Mario franchise as a whole. Like others said, Paper Mario would not play like Mario. Mainly because his moves wouldn't reference the same things, but also because you don't fight in Paper Mario like in the usual Mario platformers. So yeah, if he does come out, I'd warmly welcome his inclusion but I don't think I'd play him either way.

Predictions: Reporter and Wrestler - 0.4%

Nominations: Junko & Monokuma x5

 

[Phoenix Douchebag]

PAPER MAN THE PLUMBER (maybe not)

Chance:25%
Now, we have precedent that your series of origin can be already represented in Smash and still be DLC thanks to Arms, that Nintendo characters outside of the Token FE rep can be DLC thanks to ARMS, and there's a good chance the character will be a spirit upgrade from well..............Arms.

So Paper Mario's stage isn't that much of a drawback, they could just give him another stage and there's a lot of music selection to give him because one Medley isn't enough (the song list could also represent M&L if they want to, like how Terry is MR. SNK and brings music from non-FF series) and there's also rumors of a new Paper Mario game they could tie it in. While i dont' believe baseless rumors, this one stands to reason due to the series's consistency when releasing PM games:

-64:2001
-TTYD:2004
-Super:2007
-SS:2012
-Color Splash: 2016

As you can see, PM games tend to be release in a span of 3-5 years, and the only reason i see this not happening is because of the Corona Virus situation in Japan that might put a delay on Paper Mario Switch. If it is beign released this year or next year, it stands to reason the game may have been in development for a while (probably as early as late 2018 or early 2019) and could have been seen by Sakurai, and maybe it inspired Sakurai to give Paper Mario a chance, even if the upcoming game is not represented.

Now, an argument commonly given to Paper Mario is "he is just Mario, the Paper thing is just an aesthetic choice!". If this was 2011, that would be mostly correct, but recent PM games have (for better or for worse) put a greater emphasis on the whole Paper thing, making gimmicks and mechanics centered around it. Hell way back in The Thousand Year Door, PM already had him turning into a Paper Plane, so it has always been sort a central ability to this Mario incarnation, it's just that now it's been greatly expanded to the point of absurdity.

Also honorable mention to his crossover with the "Normal" Mario in Paper Jam, which further reinforces the idea that this Mario is a separate incarnation of the Nintendo Mascot, kinda like all of those incarnations of Spider Man going around.

This is a double edged sword though, because a lot of old time fans don't like these emphasis on Paper shtick, since while sometimes funny, it has come at the expense of what made the series great in the eyes of many gamers like Engaging Combat, interesing story (i mean the first game was outright called Mario STORY in japan, after the paper Storybook that influenced the style of the series) a parthner system that allowed for interesing characters to join your party all based on classic Mario enemies with a new twist to give them their own personalities and powers, etc.

Because of this, i see Paper Mario's announcement to recieve mixed reception (outside of him not beign a SUPER HYPE THIRD PARTY that certain parts of the community have obssessed over ever since Joker's announcement) since it could be a remainer that Paper Mario is not what it used to be as a series.

I don't see Sakurai taking the clone route with him, there are other characters that easier to turn into a clone than PM, because clones are based on similar body structure to their "parent character" (which is the only reason Ganondorf goes around punching people, not because of "MUH POWER") and doing that to a character who's ridicously different to Mario in looks and proportions.........yeah it's not worth it. Yeah Pichu and the Links are smaller than their parent characters, but we haven't seen that type of clone since Brawl, all echoes in Smash Ult have almost the same size and proportions as their parent character. Never mind echoes beign DLC is almost a non-existent possibility (we are rating DLC and not the next game right?)


TL;DR If Sakurai choses him it's not because it's paper MARIO, but because he's PAPER Mario.

Want:45%

Back in the Smash 4 pre-release days, Paper Mario was one of my TOP 5 most wanted (alongside Mewtwo, Little Mac, Simon Belmont and Waluigi) i actually never played TTYD, only Super and the 64 one. But even with that low experience, i can say PM 64 is perhaps my favorite n64 game (Super was..........okay) and that alone made me want to see the 2 Dimensional Hero in Smash. However as time went, i kinda gave up on the idea of him joining the roster.

I mentioned before that a lot of people don't like the "Modern" PM games and i count myself in that group. I hate what they have done to the series, becoming a shallow action adventure game with Paper Gimmicks up the wazoo, instead of the Charming and wholesome RPG adventure it was supposed to be. It actually discouraged me to support PM in Smash because it reminded me of those games.

Sometimes seeing a character's "bad incarnation" is enough of ticking me off of supporting them for Smash, almost nobody wanted Ghostly Adventures Pac-Man (not even Sakurai) i didn't wanted Mewtwo to be based on the 13th film (it ended up having only influence in the final smash thankfully) and i HATED the idea of Chronicles Simon in Smash (thank god that didn't happened) so i can see why people don't want him to be based on the latest two installments. I know Sakurai has a good reputation of giving characters and series good representation of who they are (Falcondorf and Music Copyright shenanigans notwithstanding) but this also the man who doesn't think there are more than 5 Kirby games, the guy who thinks every DK stage must be a jungle or every Metroid stage must be lava land, or the man that doesn't know what a "Wario Land" is (by the way, im beign intentionally hyperbole on this). So i wouldn't be surprised that Paper Mario's arrival in Smash Ultimate forgets that the series started on the N64 and not the 3DS.

Noms:
-No Third Parties in this Pass X5

 

[Sari]

Still can't believe my first proper introduction to the series was freaking Sticker Star. Yuck.

Chance: 10%
Wow I'm seeing a ton of overrates today

I feel like a lot of people are thinking this will happen just because of the new Mario game rumors with a new Paper Mario being one of them. I'm still hesitant to believe those rumors, but even if we do get a new Paper Mario game I just don't see them adding Paper Mario as a promotional rep when there are a ton of more popular first party picks out there.

The last entry in the series (Color Splash) flopped hard. It only sold about 65,000 copies in Japan making it one of the all-time worst selling Mario games there. Worldwide numbers I could find were generally under 200,000 units which - for a brand new Mario game - is absolutely pathetic. Yes I know it released towards the end of the Wii U's lifespan, but even games like Donkey Kong Country 3 which released for old systems months after a new system had been released performed much better. Also the fact Nintendo released a new Paper Mario game at the end of an already dead console's lifespan instead of saving it for the Switch really says all I need to know about where their priorities for the series lie.

Want: 60%
I'm far from the biggest Paper Mario fanboy out there: for starters, I've only played two games in the series and have never even completed them (those being Paper Mario 64 and Sticker Star, plus Paper Jam for whatever that's worth). I only got about halfway into PM64 but then forgot about it due to starting college at the time. Sticker Star was so god awful I couldn't even get through the first act, while Paper Jam just didn't interest me and I quit at that annoying cactus fight.

While my experience with the series could be better, I'd still be down for our flattened hero getting in. Although I didn't finish PM64, it was still incredibly fun and I'd rank it as one of the best Mario RPG's out there based on what I played. Here's hoping if we do get some Paper Mario content, we get references to the original characters from the earlier games instead of a bunch of generic Paper Toads.

Also I laugh at the idea that Paper Mario would play in any way close to the regular Mario. He'd be less of a Mario clone than Luigi for crying out loud. Heck, even Wario would probably play closer to Mario than Paper Mario would lol.

Reporter & Wrestler chance prediction: 1.45%

Nominations:
Axel Stone x10

 

[warpenguin55]

I seriously have no idea how I keep winning predictions. All I do is crap out a number and post(As if thats not how everyone does it...)

Paper Mario
Chance: 0%
I don't know where Paper Mario would fit in. So far in the fighters passes, we've had 3rd parties(obviously doesn't fit there) and 2 1st parties that were released too late to make the base roster. I don't know how he would fit in assuming the trend continues. I really don't think a promo pick is likely for him, as Mario games normally get attention by being Mario branded. And just because we have a game coming out, it doesn't always mean that there will be a rep. It can definitely help a series that tends to get a lot of reps (cough Pokemon cough) but it doesn't always mean anything.

Want: 0%
Hell no. This is a prime example of bad 1st party DLC. Paper Mario had his chance in the base roster and he missed out. Say what you want about Byleth and the upcoming ARMS rep, they never had a chance at the base roster. I really don't get the appeal of Paper Mario in general.


Predict: Reporter & Wrestler 2%

Noms: Gnar x5


Edit: Gonna clear up what my criteria is for a bad 1st party DLC is. This does not apply to 3rd party characters because obviously those characters are a lot more difficult to obtain. Also, I'm not even going to touch Piranha Plant.

• Could this character have been in the base roster?
  • If no, move to the next point
  • If yes, why weren't they?
    • If it's because of bad timing when the base roster was developed or the character didn't exist at the time, the point isn't held against them. Ex: Rex, ARMS rep, Byleth, a BOTW2 character.
    • If it's because they weren't thought to be important enough, the series wasn't deemed important enough, or the reason was just unknown, that's a point against them. Ex: Waluigi, Ashley, Birdo.
    • If the reason is Sakurai bias, please provide a source. Assuming the source is valid, then the character is just dead. Don't even bother with them anymore.
• Was this the first chance the character had to make the base roster?
  • If yes, that's OK but not good.
  • If no, how many times has this happened?
    • Using Paper Mario as an example here. Paper Mario's first game came out in 2000 on the N64. SSBM came out in 2001, so it probably wasn't possible for him to make that one. What's the reason for his absence in Brawl, Sm4sh, and Ultimate? Quick research says he was never considered for any of the 3 games.
    • For another example, Bandana Waddle Dee made his first appearance in 2008. Brawl was released in the same year, so missing that game is excused. Where was he during Sm4sh and Ultimate?

There are more factors, but this edit is already getting too long. Some of them include if the character was ever considered for Smash, my bias on the character(because this is all just my opinion), and clarity on if the character is 1st party or not (Did we ever decide what party Akira was?). And then there are factors like "X character came out in x year, but they weren't popular until years later". Other things like Legal Disputes, characters being planned and dropped, fan demand, etc also matter but again, this edit is getting too long. My whole explanation probably needs to be restructured but this should give a better look into what I think is a good/bad thing for a 1st party DLC character.

 

[FancySmash]

Mario in Flat Zone

Chance: 20%
I'll be cautiously optimistic here. If, and that's a big if, the rumors are true about these Mario remasters as well as a new Paper Mario, the chances are a little better than normal. Even still, that wouldn't have much bearing considering we don't even officially know about this game, assuming the rumor is even true. I suppose it all depends how far in development this title would be and how it coincides with FP2. Again, this all hinges on this rumor being true, so I'm prepared to be skeptical.

Want: 60%
I wish I could rank this higher, I really do. Look, I loved Paper Mario. N64, TTYD, and even Super. All of them had elements to love as fun games all around. Paper Mario 64 was a simple experience with fun gameplay, and TTYD expanded on everything 64 had. Super was where things started to take a turn. Again, I like Super too, it IMO has the best story of the Paper Mario games, but I have to be honest, turning it into a platformer (when the Wii didn't lack a Mario Platformer at all)... was a head scratching choice. Then, Sticker Star happened. If I have anything nice to say about that game... it had a nice soundtrack. Look, I'm not Sticker Star's biggest fan. Pre-release images promised a Chain Chomp partner, and I thought Paper Mario was back! It wasn't. No partners in the final game, and Stickers were not fun to battle with. Color Splash didn't help that it was just better Sticker Star. Now, this leads me to believe that if we get Paper Mario as a rep, he's gonna do things in battle more related to Sticker Star and Color Splash, instead of the games that really made the series. Heck, the stage for Paper Mario confirms this for me with 2/3 of it being Sticker Star focused. I'd like to see Paper Mario, but only if takes inspiration from the games that made the series what it was, not the gimmick of a franchise it's become.

Reporter: Well, we don't have a Newsworthy character in Smash yet, so I suppose it could be an interesting addition that hasn't been seen on the ros-
... & Wrestler: Oh. Well, um... , so... 0.84%

Nominations: Meowth x5

 

[zferolie]

Paper mario

Chance: 25%

Going to be honest, a lot of his chances are based soloy on if these rumors are true. If they arent, his chances fall, if they are, they could raise a bit. Still, hes in the tip 3 for new mario reps, along with waluigi and Geno.

Want: 80%

I love his games and the rumors of a return to form paper mario has me so stoked and i cannot wait till june. He would be super unique, most likely taking the 2d element farther then Game &watch, and maybe use his partners as well

 

[GoodGrief741]

Flat Kingdom

Chance: 25%
Given all the strong rumblings about the blowout of Mario titles that we'll be getting this June for the series' 35th anniversary, right now I see our next fighter being a Mario character. To me, the main contenders are Toad and Waluigi, Toad because he's one of the faces of Mario and Waluigi because of the hype. However, if the rumored "return to form for Paper Mario" is indeed a thing, then Paper Mario could be the rep. For one, he works to directly promote a game (Toad, I guess, could promote 3D World Deluxe, whereas Waluigi can't promote anything). Also, if they're really making a return to form, that means they've actually listened to what the fans want and gave the series some importance beyond "obligatory Mario spin-off in RPG genre". However he is kinda outclassed in importance by the other two, and demand has seriously waned in the last years. Here's hoping if the new game does happen it'll revive support.

Want: 100%
It's been a sad thing, what happened to Paper Mario. From low-key one of the finest RPG series this side of the fifth generation of consoles to some bland, forgettable, kiddy pool of an RPG. It needs vindication. I want Nintendo to realize that the Mario RPGs are popular, why they are popular, and act accordingly.

Plus Paper Mario would be the perfect example of a "second Mario" done right (looking at you, no-mask-wearing Young Link). So many things you can do with him.

Noms: Chun-Li x5
Reporter & Wrestler prediction: They're gonna massacre my children, aren't they? 2.78%

Want: 0%
Hell no. This is a prime example of bad 1st party DLC. Paper Mario had his chance in the base roster and he missed out. Say what you want about Byleth and the upcoming ARMS rep, they never had a chance at the base roster. I really don't get the appeal of Paper Mario in general.

Wait, so if a character existed in time to be in the base roster, they're a bad choice for DLC? What does that say about Banjo-Kazooie and Terry? Are you really going to say every character that debuted pre-2017 is a bad pick?

 

[chocolatejr9]

Flat Kingdom

Chance: 25%
Given all the strong rumblings about the blowout of Mario titles that we'll be getting this June for the series' 35th anniversary, right now I see our next fighter being a Mario character. To me, the main contenders are Toad and Waluigi, Toad because he's one of the faces of Mario and Waluigi because of the hype. However, if the rumored "return to form for Paper Mario" is indeed a thing, then Paper Mario could be the rep. For one, he works to directly promote a game (Toad, I guess, could promote 3D World Deluxe, whereas Waluigi can't promote anything). Also, if they're really making a return to form, that means they've actually listened to what the fans want and gave the series some importance beyond "obligatory Mario spin-off in RPG genre". However he is kinda outclassed in importance by the other two, and demand has seriously waned in the last years. Here's hoping if the new game does happen it'll revive support.

Want: 100%
It's been a sad thing, what happened to Paper Mario. From low-key one of the finest RPG series this side of the fifth generation of consoles to some bland, forgettable, kiddy pool of an RPG. It needs vindication. I want Nintendo to realize that the Mario RPGs are popular, why they are popular, and act accordingly.

Plus Paper Mario would be the perfect example of a "second Mario" done right (looking at you, no-mask-wearing Young Link). So many things you can do with him.

Noms: Chun-Li x5
Reporter & Wrestler prediction: They're gonna massacre my children, aren't they? 2.78%


Wait, so if a character existed in time to be in the base roster, they're a bad choice for DLC? What does that say about Banjo-Kazooie and Terry? Are you really going to say every character that debuted pre-2017 is a bad pick?

I think what they meant was, if they wanted to add Paper Mario, they should've done it in the base game. Byleth and Arms had timing issues, so them being DLC is easier to justify. Not that I agree, that's just how I interpreted it.

 

[GoodGrief741]

Spoiler: Nominations post-Mii Costume: Quote pre-Paper Mario

Gnar (League of Legends) x110
Segata Sanshiro x105
Chun-Li x105
Bubsy x90
Concept: Devolver Digital rep x90
Hornet (Hollow Knight) x90
Falinks x86

100 - 51

Decidueye x80
Concept: Pokéball Pokémon becomes playable x77
Proto Man x75
Papyrus x75
Sackboy x75
Alucard (Castlevania) x75
Concept: New Zelda character x70
Concept: Darksiders rep x70
Meowth x69
Brian (Quest 64) x65
Sirfetch'd x65
[Rerate] Concept: Gen 8 Pokémon x55

50 - 25

Dwight Fairfield (Dead by Daylight) x50
Earthworm Jim x50
Concept: A character who isn't the star of their own game x50
Concept: Contra rep x50
Minato Arisato x50
Echo: Zeraora (41e) x45
[Rerate] Concept: Dragalia Lost rep x45
Concept: DLC music packs x40
Concept: Civilization series stage with music (Standalone) x40
Kasumi (Dead or Alive) x35
Terra Branford x35
Junko & Monokuma x35
Boss: Ender Dragon x33
[Rerate] Kratos x30
Echo: Dark Bowser (14e) x30
Concept: Level-5 rep x30
Concept: Assist Trophies added in updates x27
Urbosa x25
Giygas x25

Under 25

Echo: Lord Fredrik (67e) x21
Ahri (League of Legends) x20
Axel Stone x20
Concept: Returning stages x19
Rival Pokémon Trainer x17
Concept: Second F-Zero rep x16
Zeraora x15
Concept: Nippon Ichi rep x15
[Rerate] Jin Kazama x10
[Rerate] Agumon x10
Concept: Dark Souls rep x10
Guardian (Destiny) x10
[Rerate] Monokuma x10
Gooigi x10
[Rerate] Steve x10
Gran/Djeeta x10
Lora and Jin x10
Otto Matic x10
Black Shadow x8
Chell x8
[Rerate] Professor Layton x8
Taranza x6
Sparky (Clash Royale) x5
Concept: Overwatch character x5
Gordon Freeman x5
Asha (Wonder Boy) x5
Mii Costume: Hat Kid x5
Concept: Portal 2 rep x5
Concept: Pokémon Mystery Dungeon content x5
Breath of the Wild 2 Ganondorf x5
Tick (Brawl Stars) x5
King Graham x5
Concept: Fortnite character x5
Magolor x5
[Rerate] Andy x5
Cooking Mama x5
[Rerate] Toxtricity x5
Mii Costume: Jill Stingray x5
3 Mage Sisters x2

Gnar defeats Segata Sanshiro and takes the crown, while Segata's now locked in a duel against Chun-Li for second place. Hornet ties with Bubsy and Devolver Digital rep, while Falinks kicks Decidueye off the top seven.

Today's newcomer is Mii Costume: Jill Stingray, with 5 nominations.

I think what they meant was, if they wanted to add Paper Mario, they should've done it in the base game. Byleth and Arms had timing issues, so them being DLC is easier to justify. Not that I agree, that's just how I interpreted it.

Yeah, but that's such a bull**** way to look at things. That means any character that could have been in base game and wasn't is a waste of a DLC slot, so you're limiting yourself to only characters from 2017 onward. It's so arbitrary.

 

[amageish]

Paper Mario

Chance: 10%. I've never really believed in a definable difference between a "promotional" pick and a "popularity" pick, as evidently it's a multitude of factors that go into picking a Smash character and, in a community as diverse as Smash's, basically every character is popular to someone. I feel like Paper Mario, a character who was a common request in previous speculation cycles and has a lot of rumours about an upcoming promotable game, is a good demonstration of how hard it is to draw that line.... If those rumours of a new game come to fruition, then his score goes up by a lot. Until then, I think he's just generally possible.

There is also the problem of there already being a Paper Mario stage (literally named "Paper Mario"), but that stage doesn't represent all of the franchise... Additionally, a new game would likely provide a new location and new characters for spirits.

Want: 70%. Paper Mario is a fun franchise for sure. I'd hope his character would involve summoning some partner characters though, as I feel like they are the heart of Paper Mario more then the mustachioed plumber himself.

 

[warpenguin55]

Wait, so if a character existed in time to be in the base roster, they're a bad choice for DLC? What does that say about Banjo-Kazooie and Terry? Are you really going to say every character that debuted pre-2017 is a bad pick?

My statement only applies to first party characters. Also, Banjo wasn't really available for smash until after the base roster(AFAIK anyway), so nothing in the statement really applies to him. I'm going to edit my post to make my point more clear.

 

[3DSNinja]

Seriously?

"Oh, they didn't put Bandana Dee in base game, he's a bad roster choice."
That's the dumbest f****** reasoning i've ever heard.
Come up with an actual reason to not want Paper Mario.

 

[chocolatejr9]

Abstain. I don't have an opinion on Paper Mario.

Nominations: [Rerate] Concept: Dragalia Lost rep x5

 

[Jomosensual]

Seriously?

"Oh, they didn't put Bandana Dee in base game, he's a bad roster choice."
That's the dumbest f****** reasoning i've ever heard.
Come up with an actual reason to not want Paper Mario.

Is "This feels like a better in the base roster pick" not a good reasoning? That's what I think he means at least. I don't disagree with it either. Have no interest in paying for another Mario no matter how unique or not unique the character is. Same for Links, Zeldas, and anyone else who has multiple forms of themselves in the game