Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[Deleted member]

Alright now with the previous noms issues solve, here we go with Vaati.

Chances: 15%

He is a somewhat recurring villain in the Zelda franchise appearing in Four Swords Adventures and the Minish Cap, sadly his games are not as popular compared to many other titles in the Zelda series. Plus, the franchise of Zelda has two major issues that would affect his inclusion, Zelda has a lot of popular characters that he would have to compete against and also that so far Sakurai has been adamant in adding someone outside of the Triforce (you know Link, Zelda and Ganondorf). He has a bit of a chance, but honestly I don't see it very high considering the circumstances and I think if we get another Zelda rep it will be one from a more popular or recent title. His chances would increase if he appears in a new Zelda, even in a spinoff.

Want: 40%

I like Zelda and I am totally open to another rep, but I'm not too attached to Vaati. I don't dislike him and I feel he was a good antagonist in the Minish Cap but honestly I like other characters in Zelda a lot better. He has the advantage of being a somewhat unique archetype given that in Minish cap he is pretty much a sorcerer and he also can take a monstrous form though. Still in this case is something that I pretty much see as it would be cool as a new Zelda rep but I really don't care if he doesn't get in. I feel his main disadvantage for me, is that I would like villains like Ghiraim and Zant more instead of him.

Noms Amateratsu x5

 

[GoodGrief741]

Did mine not count? Curious because I probably just missed someone but I thought I got everyone

Iirc most of your ratings were around three or four sentences. Hang in there though, with the recount you might end up with something.

 

[GoodGrief741]

Effectively, the Sari law did benefit some people. Nobody got the extra 30 that didn't have them already. But, Jomosensual , RealPokeFan11 and Ridrool64 got 10 extra (good job guys!). Plus the revision made me realize I had given someone 5 noms when actually they didn't even earn those, that's some bad luck right there.

Also, since you're actually the only case. TheCJBrine you get the regular 5 noms, but since you had divided 10 between Ninten and Creeper I didn't know how to allocate them, so I'm giving you the chance to clarify.

The new noms list is below.

Spoiler: Nominations post-April's Fools pre-Vaati

Concept: Fire Emblem Three Houses rep x130
Black Mage (Final Fantasy) x120
Amy Rose x115
Nathan Drake x115
Impa x106
Freddi Fish and Luther (Freddi Fish) x105
[Rerate] Erdrick x102
Metal Sonic x102

100 - 51

Concept: Microsoft Rep x100
Aloy x100
Protector (Etrian Odyssey) x100
Tetromino x100
Concept: Third-party character from unrepped Company x98
Creeper x97
Boss: Kracko x85
Palico x85
Monokuma x85
Spyro x82
Noctis Lucis Caelum x80
Frogger x80
Morrigan Aensland x80
9-Volt x74
Jin Kazama x65
Kamek x61
Ninten x60
Papyrus x51

50 - 25

Concept: Square Enix rep x50
X (Mega Man) x44
Frisk x40
Crono x40
Kyle Hyde x40
Decidueye x38
[Rerate] 2B x35
Concept: Assist Trophy becomes Fighter x30
Concept: DLC challenges x30
Adeleine (Kirby) x29
Farmer (Harvest Moon/Story of Seasons) x28
Thrall (Warcraft) x25
Cooking Mama x25
Heavy (Team Fortress) x25

Under 25

Gooey (Kirby) x23
Boss: Perfect Chaos x20
Earthworm Jim x20
Glover x20
Reporter & Wrestler x20
Concept: Spirits aren’t disconfirmations x18
Brian (Quest 64) x17
Hector (Fire Emblem) x15
Pyra & Mythra (sans Rex) x15
Amaterasu x15
Saber (Fate) x15
[Rerate] Crash Bandicoot x15
Concept: Free updates (Splatoon-style) x13
Concept: Persona Spirits x12
Concept: Dragalia Lost rep x10
Concept: Bethesda rep x10
Frog (Chrono Trigger) x10
Beat (Jet Set Radio) x10
Tora and Poppi x10
Concept: Spectator Emotes x10
Concept: Another joke character x10
Velvet Crowe x10
Black Shadow x8
Marx (Kirby) x7
Concept: New modes x7
Concept: Lord Fredrik as an Echo Fighter of K. Rool x6
Blacephalon x5
Zhao Yun (Dynasty Warriors) x5
Neptune x5
Concept: Crazi Taxi rep x5
Oliver (Ni No Kuni) x5
Courier (Fallout) x5
Scorpion x5
Concept: Another literally who Level-5 Character who's popular in Japan, like Achilles or Mark Evans x5
Starman (Pro Wrestling) x5
Malzahar (League of Legends) x5
King Boo x5
Concept: Master Chief Mii Costume x5
Worm (Worms) x5
Mike Jones x5
Specter Knight x5
[Rerate] Sans x5
Concept: Pokéball Pokémon becomes fighter x5
Lizalfos x4
Toon Zelda x3
Eight (Dragon Quest) x3
[Rerate] Slime (Dragon Quest) x3
Boss: Sans x2
Luminary (Dragon Quest) x2
Urbosa x1
Stahl x1
[Rerate] Steve? x1

Basically the changes are that Nathan Drake is now tied at third place with Amy Rose; Crash Bandicoot actually debuts at 15 noms instead of 5; and Tetromino is just higher on the ranks.

 

[Deleted member]

Effectively, the Sari law did benefit some people. Nobody got the extra 30 that didn't have them already. But, Jomosensual , RealPokeFan11 and Ridrool64 got 10 extra (good job guys!). Plus the revision made me realize I had given someone 5 noms when actually they didn't even earn those, that's some bad luck right there.

Also, since you're actually the only case. TheCJBrine you get the regular 5 noms, but since you had divided 10 between Ninten and Creeper I didn't know how to allocate them, so I'm giving you the chance to clarify.

The new noms list is below.

Spoiler: Nominations post-April's Fools pre-Vaati

Concept: Fire Emblem Three Houses rep x130
Black Mage (Final Fantasy) x120
Amy Rose x115
Nathan Drake x115
Impa x106
Freddi Fish and Luther (Freddi Fish) x105
[Rerate] Erdrick x102
Metal Sonic x102

100 - 51

Concept: Microsoft Rep x100
Aloy x100
Protector (Etrian Odyssey) x100
Tetromino x100
Concept: Third-party character from unrepped Company x98
Creeper x94
Boss: Kracko x85
Palico x85
Monokuma x85
Spyro x82
Noctis Lucis Caelum x80
Frogger x80
Morrigan Aensland x80
9-Volt x74
Jin Kazama x65
Kamek x61
Ninten x58
Papyrus x51

50 - 25

Concept: Square Enix rep x50
X (Mega Man) x44
Frisk x40
Crono x40
Kyle Hyde x40
Decidueye x38
[Rerate] 2B x35
Concept: Assist Trophy becomes Fighter x30
Concept: DLC challenges x30
Adeleine (Kirby) x29
Farmer (Harvest Moon/Story of Seasons) x28
Thrall (Warcraft) x25
Cooking Mama x25
Heavy (Team Fortress) x25

Under 25

Gooey (Kirby) x23
Boss: Perfect Chaos x20
Earthworm Jim x20
Glover x20
Reporter & Wrestler x20
Concept: Spirits aren’t disconfirmations x18
Brian (Quest 64) x17
Hector (Fire Emblem) x15
Pyra & Mythra (sans Rex) x15
Amaterasu x15
Saber (Fate) x15
[Rerate] Crash Bandicoot x15
Concept: Free updates (Splatoon-style) x13
Concept: Persona Spirits x12
Concept: Dragalia Lost rep x10
Concept: Bethesda rep x10
Frog (Chrono Trigger) x10
Beat (Jet Set Radio) x10
Tora and Poppi x10
Concept: Spectator Emotes x10
Concept: Another joke character x10
Velvet Crowe x10
Black Shadow x8
Marx (Kirby) x7
Concept: New modes x7
Concept: Lord Fredrik as an Echo Fighter of K. Rool x6
Blacephalon x5
Zhao Yun (Dynasty Warriors) x5
Neptune x5
Concept: Crazi Taxi rep x5
Oliver (Ni No Kuni) x5
Courier (Fallout) x5
Scorpion x5
Concept: Another literally who Level-5 Character who's popular in Japan, like Achilles or Mark Evans x5
Starman (Pro Wrestling) x5
Malzahar (League of Legends) x5
King Boo x5
Concept: Master Chief Mii Costume x5
Worm (Worms) x5
Mike Jones x5
Specter Knight x5
[Rerate] Sans x5
Concept: Pokéball Pokémon becomes fighter x5
Lizalfos x4
Toon Zelda x3
Eight (Dragon Quest) x3
[Rerate] Slime (Dragon Quest) x3
Boss: Sans x2
Luminary (Dragon Quest) x2
Urbosa x1
Stahl x1
[Rerate] Steve? x1

Basically the changes are that Nathan Drake is now tied at third place with Amy Rose; Crash Bandicoot actually debuts at 15 noms instead of 5; and Tetromino is just higher on the ranks.

So I only got 10 at the end right?

 

[GoodGrief741]

So I only got 10 at the end right?

Yup.

 

[Deleted member]

Yup.

Just for abstaining in one pick? Honestly I gave my reasoning for that, if its like that I dont think I should be participating in the future. Please omit my participation today.

 

[Neosonic97]

Four Swords was pretty fun. Shame it's a relic of a bygone era now.

Chance: 1%
Everything I have to say on Vaati has already been said. Not a third party, franchise is not new to smash, unlike other GBA titles who've faded from time, Vaati seems to have been completely forgotten, and also rights issues (Because Four Swords and Minish Cap were made by Capcom).

Want: Abstain.
I honestly can't say. While I played and liked Four Swords, I have not played Four Swords Adventures, and only played Minish Cap a short way thorugh (and not enough to see Vaati). I just have no feelings on the matter. He's just... there.

Noms: Saber (Fate) x5

 

[DaUsername]

Actually, on cases like yours where you gave a general score for every AT, I just assumed it as if it had been written as many times as necessary. I don't like to penalize people on formatting their posts differently.

The thing with your ratings is that none of them reached six sentences per character. With the new requirement of only the regular four, you still only fulfilled it for six characters, so you almost qualified for 10 extra noms, but not quite.

My chance rating had 4 sentences and all of my want ratings had at least 3. How does it not count?

 

[RealPokeFan11]

CRAAPPI
Chance: 0%
Want: 0%

He's the second most recurring Zelda villain behind Ganondorf. Too bad the 3 games he starred in are all the least sold Zelda games in the entire franchise. He's also fairly unpopular and has an extreme amount of competition from other Zelda characters trying to get in. Also a first party that wouldn't cause much hype at all. I don't care about Vaati's existence either, and he would be a waste of a fighters pass slot in my opinion. Why pick him when there's LOADS of better choices from Zelda, and in general? NEXT!

Ryu Hayabusa: 35.63%

Tetromino x5 (10 extra noms let's gooooo!)

 

[3DSNinja]

Another Mage (Not Black)
chance:5%: Vaati honest has an shy chance. while yeah, his human form has no spirit, but other characters !like Midna, Skull Kid, Impa, and even Ravio are more popular.
Want:100%: Which is a shame because this character is awesone! Four Swords Adventures and Minish Cap are some of my favorite Zelda games. Plus, we need a 3rd Mage.
Nominations: Black Mage x5

 

[GoodGrief741]

My chance rating had 4 sentences and all of my want ratings had at least 3. How does it not count?

Because you didn't give one chance rating, you gave 13. Since every one of the 13 characters needs to have two sentences for want and two for chance, you needed four sentences for each character.

RealPokeFan11 Next up is Ryu Hayabusa.

 

[TheCJBrine]

Also, since you're actually the only case. TheCJBrine you get the regular 5 noms, but since you had divided 10 between Ninten and Creeper I didn't know how to allocate them, so I'm giving you the chance to clarify.

I'll just give 3 to Creeper and 2 to Ninten.

 

[Calamitas]

Oh, hey, Vaati's turn? Neat.

Chance: 5%.
Yeeah, he's most likely not happening. Vaati has missed out on Hyrule Warriors already, which makes his inclusion in Smash even less likely.

Want: 100%
Out of all the potential Zelda characters that could join, Vaati is probably my most wanted. While I'd vastly prefer his humanoid form from Minish Cap, I'd even be fine with his monster form.

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Day will end tomorrow morning.

Also since I did not make it super explicit for any changes and many ATs would be flat zeros, I would say GoodGrief741 if people at least rated for want or provided reasoning for an abstain to give benefit of doubt, normally I would say nah but it’s an April Fools day so why not.

As for a news update, I am announcing a concrete date deadline of 4/29 for a huge update. Some things that will be in for sure.
-complete scores update
-up to date front page
Things that I want to do from that day onward for sure or earlier.
-dedicated music postings per day
-finding an artist for a page banner

There are a few others I am considering as well. Any other questions pm me.

 

[CallMeKnux]

Vaati eh?

Chances: 15%
Hasn’t been used in a very very long time and even though he’s made cameos specifically as a Spirit I can’t see them reviving for a Smash appearance when they couldn’t even implement him into Hyrule Warriors. Maybe if he comes back in a Zelda game? Vaati is the closest to a non-Ganon reoccurring villain, to be fair.

Oh yeah also rights bull****

Want: 60%
Would absolutely love Vaati as a playable character with all his abilities and such. I feel like there could be even better Zelda characters tho.

Noms: Monokuma x3 Sub-Zero x2

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Day would have ended yesterday but I had food poisoning.

 

[Sari]

Ryu Hayabusa

Chance: 15%
He's definitely got legacy going for him as he's one of the remaining iconic NES all-stars not yet in Smash (along with characters like the Contra guys and Battletoads). Team Ninja has also shown themselves to be pretty Nintendo friendly recently as they worked on Hyrule Warriors, Fire Emblem Warriors, and that one Metroid game no one likes to talk about. On the downside however, there hasn't been a Ninja Gaiden game in years so I'm not sure what releasing him now would accomplish especially with Nintendo providing Sakurai the possible DLC options. Also one of the bigger things going for him was that he appeared in a supposed leak recently which IIRC has been debunked as fake.

Want: 15%
My only experience with Ryu Hayabusa is with the first few levels of the original Ninja Gaiden and using him in Super Mario Crossover. I wouldn't mind him at all though there are a ton of other characters I want to see first. Also in terms of us getting another ninja based character I'd much prefer Kat & Ana.

Porky chance prediction: 22.13% (I have a feeling people are really going to overblow his chances just because he isn't a spirit)

Nominations:
Concept: Fire Emblem Three Houses rep x5

 

[KneeOfJustice99]

Ryu Hayabusa, huh?

Chance; 10%.

Look, Ryu Hayabusa has a lot going for his inclusion. There's a lot of legacy behind the Ninja Gaiden series, what with starting on the NES in 1988. Since then, the series has gone well, but there's not really been a Ninja Gaiden game since 2014.

As for moveset potential, again, it's there, but a lot of it might seem too similar to Sheik's, seems as they are both ninjas of some description. I mean, he is a swordfighter, but again, you can't just keep bull****ing a moveset for swordfighters, because Fire Emblem.

He's not really a character that is recognisable, either, or relevant. I mean, he could be a retro rep, but I imagine that Sakurai leaves those for the base roster. I mean, imagine what kind of a response characters like the Ice Climbers or Mr Game and Watch would have had if they'd debuted as DLC. In the case of Piranha Plant, at least everyone had an idea of who it was, but retro reps tend to be a bit of a niche, and I think this has been recognised.

Look at Joker. In truth, I'd say that if P5 had released 20 years ago, Joker would never have even been remotely considered, but due to his current relevancy, he's been added. Chances don't look so good for Ryu, to be honest.

Last note here; Would Ryu still be Ryu if Ryu fought Ryu, or would Ryu be called 'Gaiden' or something? I mean, yeah, there are two Roys, but you can't really confuse a turtle and an anime swordsman.

Want; 60%.

I'm on the fence about Ryu. I mean, I think his inclusion would be cool, and give great representation to the ninja-style character, but his possible lack of originality would affect his play-style, and a lot of people would complain that he's too much like Sheik... but I want him anyways

 

[BowserKing]

Ryu Hayabusa

Chance: 20 to 30%: He was in a bit of leaks, making his chance slightly higher. He would also fit as a retro fighter to bring more variety. But just like the other characters, he has competition.

Want: 50%: Another Ninja character would be fun to use. And if he gets added in, his franchise would see a return.

Also there would be 2 Ryu's, just like when they are 2 Roy's

Noms: 2 for Concept: Microsoft Rep and 3 for Boss: Perfect Chaos

 

[SPEN18]

Ryu Hayabusa
Chance: 10%
I'm not counting on any of the leaks I've seen being accurate, but he's from a pretty iconic game and represents a company that has had some collaboration with Nintendo recently on Fire Emblem and stuff. He's not really in his prime right now, but he has a few routes to getting into the Fighters Pass.

Want: 30%
He's from an iconic game and would bring an interesting fighting style. I don't have much personal investment in seeing him make it, and he's third party, but compared to most of the other third party choices he seems like a pretty good fit in many respects. There are a couple third parties like Banjo that might be better, though.

 

[3DSNinja]

the Last NES All-Star!
Chance:75%: He is the most likely character for DLC. Tecmoe Koei have worked with Nintendo on Metroid, Zelda, and Fire Emblem. He is also the last of the the 4 NES icons left. Mario, Mega Man, Simon, all are in but not Ryu H. and to those who say 2 Ryu 's is confusing, just call him Hayubusa.
Want:100%: He is also a character that I want. A new ninja character with a katana and an interesting playstyle would be awesome.
Nominations: Black Mage x5

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

Other Ryu
Chance: 40%
Definitely possible. Being one of the last NES icons from a series still ongoing (although it is a bit dormant now) makes him a pretty sensible pick in the same vein as Simon. He's also owned by an unrepresented eastern company which helps him greatly. Still, we haven't had a Ninja Gaiden game in a while so the hype for him probably wouldn't be as strong for him compared to other potential picks. I also don't know how Sakurai feels about his series, whereas it was clear with Castlevania.

Want: 15%
Not a fan of many third-parties and no experience with Ninja Gaiden. But he does make alot of sense and I do see great potential in his moveset. Compared to some third-party requests I've been seeing, Hayabusa's pretty alright.

Porky: 14.72%
Metal Sonic x5

 

[GoodGrief741]

You're that Ninja...

Chance: 50%
Ryu Hayabusa is one of the last icons from the NES era. Unlike, say, the Battletoads or Contra guys, Ninja Gaiden kept getting games into the modern era, and Ryu frequently appears in the Dead or Alive games. Tecmo Koei also has no representation in Smash despite its history and close relationship with Nintendo.

I don't believe the leaks and I'm not taking them into account, but clearly someone made up that leak and included Hayabusa because he makes sense. After Mega Man and Simon, it seems like the kind of thing Sakurai wants to represent (the man clearly cherishes the NES era more than any other; I don't blame him)

Want: 100%
I love Ninja Gaiden so much. Ryu could actually play like a Ninja instead of the weird thing Sheik is. Plus he's got a ton of magic and moves from the newer games that make him impossible not to stand out. To me he is the last NES all-star.

Noms: Cronox5

 

[MacDaddyNook]

Hayabusa

Chance: 50%
As far a third-party characters go, things don't look too shabby for him. The original Ninja Gaiden is one of those NES-defining series akin to Mega Man and Castlevania, as well as having the reputation of being the granddaddy of cinematic gaming, so he has plenty of legacy behind him and is very iconic. In more recent times, the series has enjoyed a healthy revival during the previous console generation as well, as well as a appearing in the Dead or Alive games as well, so he isn't exactly forgotten either. Plus, Nintendo and Tecmo have enjoyed a pretty good relationship for quite a long time now, and Nintendo has even entrusted Tecmo with several of their properties including a mainline installment of the Metroid series (of which, a good deal of the content used in Smash is based upon).

Want: 85%
While he's not my most-wanted, he certainly is high up there. I enjoy the NES original quite a bit and think he'd make an exciting addition to the roster with his flashy acrobatic moves and ninja magic. I'm not very familiar with the newer games, but I'm sure there's quite a lot to pull from there (they could even pull a Wario/Cloud/Link/Bayonetta and give him costumes based on his newer appearance as well as his classic attire from the NES) Plus, incorporating the infamous birds (who are still jerks) into his moveset seems like a very Sakurai thing to do. Getting some of the awesome music from those games would be great to have too. And it would be nice to have a proper ninja playable.

 

[GoodGrief741]

Spoiler: Nominations post-Vaati pre-Ryu Hayabusa

Concept: Fire Emblem Three Houses rep x135
Black Mage (Final Fantasy) x125
Nathan Drake x120
Amy Rose x115
Metal Sonic x107
Impa x106
Freddi Fish and Luther (Freddi Fish) x105
Tetromino x105

150 - 101

[Rerate] Erdrick x102

100 - 51

Concept: Microsoft Rep x100
Aloy x100
Protector (Etrian Odyssey) x100
Concept: Third-party character from unrepped Company x98
Creeper x98
Palico x90
Monokuma x88
Boss: Kracko x85
Spyro x82
Noctis Lucis Caelum x80
Frogger x80
Morrigan Aensland x80
9-Volt x74
Jin Kazama x65
Kamek x61
Ninten x60
Papyrus x51

50 - 25

Concept: Square Enix rep x50
X (Mega Man) x44
Frisk x45
Crono x45
Kyle Hyde x45
Decidueye x38
[Rerate] 2B x35
Adeleine (Kirby) x31
Concept: Assist Trophy becomes Fighter x30
Concept: DLC challenges x30
Farmer (Harvest Moon/Story of Seasons) x28
Thrall (Warcraft) x25
Cooking Mama x25
Heavy (Team Fortress) x25
Glover x25

Under 25

Gooey (Kirby) x23
Boss: Perfect Chaos x20
Earthworm Jim x20
Reporter & Wrestler x20
Saber (Fate) x20
Concept: Spirits aren’t disconfirmations x18
Brian (Quest 64) x17
Hector (Fire Emblem) x15
Pyra & Mythra (sans Rex) x15
Amaterasu x15
[Rerate] Crash Bandicoot x15
Concept: Free updates (Splatoon-style) x13
Concept: Persona Spirits x12
Concept: Dragalia Lost rep x10
Concept: Bethesda rep x10
Frog (Chrono Trigger) x10
Beat (Jet Set Radio) x10
Tora and Poppi x10
Concept: Spectator Emotes x10
Concept: Another joke character x10
Velvet Crowe x10
Black Shadow x8
Marx (Kirby) x7
Concept: New modes x7
Concept: Pokéball Pokémon becomes fighter x7
Concept: Lord Fredrik as an Echo Fighter of K. Rool x6
Blacephalon x5
Zhao Yun (Dynasty Warriors) x5
Neptune x5
Concept: Crazi Taxi rep x5
Oliver (Ni No Kuni) x5
Courier (Fallout) x5
Scorpion x5
Concept: Another literally who Level-5 Character who's popular in Japan, like Achilles or Mark Evans x5
Starman (Pro Wrestling) x5
Malzahar (League of Legends) x5
King Boo x5
Concept: Master Chief Mii Costume x5
Worm (Worms) x5
Mike Jones x5
Specter Knight x5
[Rerate] Sans x5
Concept: Valve rep x5
Toon Zelda x5
Lizalfos x4
Toon Zelda x3
Eight (Dragon Quest) x3
[Rerate] Slime (Dragon Quest) x3
Boss: Sans x2
Luminary (Dragon Quest) x2
Sub-Zero x2
Urbosa x1
Stahl x1
[Rerate] Steve? x1

Nathan Drake keeps climbing and gets past Amy Rose. He is now in third place. Metal Sonic flies past Erdrick, Freddi Fish and Luther, and Impa, ends the day in fifth place. Erdrick falls off the top 7, and replacing him is Tetromino, tied for last place with Freddi Fish and Luther (oh what a double day that would be).

Glover rolls out of the under 25 club.

Today's newcomers are the concept of a Valve rep, Toon Zelda (each with 5 noms), and Sub-Zero (2 noms).

 

[Wunderwaft]

Ryu Hayabusa

Chance: 60%
He's a character from a beloved NES classic, and his series devloped into a big franchise where he became the most well known face of Tecmo. If anyone will get in Smash from that company it's going to be Hayabusa, no questions about it.

Want: 85%
I adore the Ninja Gaiden series, and Ryu Hayabusa making it to Smash would be quite incredible. I have no doubt in my mind that he would be a fun and unique fighter with a cool moveset.

 

[Ridrool64]

Insert the death jingle here.

Chance: 45%. I don't even need the leak that made him a bigger deal in the speculation community, many who say it's fake still admit that all of the choices feel like real, legitimate choices. With Koei Tecmo already represented, but lacking a fighter, none other that Ryu Hayabusa comes to mind to have them earn a fighter in Smash Bros. Of course, his series seems to be in a bit of a dry spell lately, though I don't doubt it'll come back soon.

Want: 50%. This would've been a 20% but I have NSO, so I got to play Ninja Gaiden 1. It's hard, and it's frustrating, but this alone tells me everything I need to know: it's really freaking good, Ryu Hayabusa would be extremely unique, and stage 4-2's music would be in the game. This should honestly be taken into consideration.

Rerate Crash x 5.

 

[jamesster445]

Raiyu Heyaboosa from Nimja Hayden

Chance- 50%
Want- 100%

I'm pretty much regurgitating I've said in previous posts for this character. So I'll keep it brief.
- probably Tecmo's most recognizable character thanks to having history with 4 of its franchises maintaining relevance.
-TK and Ninty have a good relationship together with take working on 4 Ninty ips and developing the Switch exclusive Ultimate Alliance 3.
- I like Ninja Gaiden as a series and the character himself.

Nominations- Dragalia Lost representation x5

 

[Flyboy]

Hayabusa
Chance: 50%
I intentionally rate chances low at this point until we know more about the pass patterns but with K-T already on board and having a strong relationship with Nintendo I'd be surprised if we didn't get him. He makes sense, he'd be exciting, and the company is already heavily Nintendo-involved.

I find the leak to be totally fake but it DOES pay attention to stuff like this. We know it's a strong possibility, so I'm giving it a coin flip.

Want: 65%
He's a strange one for me. I used to joke with a friend that the reason Greninja played like he did was because they couldn't get the Hayabusa rights. He's a legendary old school icon and his newer games, especially Sigma, were some of the first M-rated games I owned. He's cool, his games are full of awesome music, he has tons of moveset potential, and the game series introduced cutscenes and storytelling to a wider audience...but he's not SUPER exciting to me for some reason. That said, combined with others who bring the hype in the pack he'd be a wonderful addition to the roster. I like the Simon/Richter comparisons - the game would just feel that much more "complete" with him in.

Nominations: Kyle Hyde x5

 

[CallMeKnux]

Ryu, eh?

Chances: 45%. Old school NES rep with loads of moveset potential, and Tecmo has already dipped their toes in Smash before, but I’m not sure Nintendo would want to pick a character that only gained traction so recently.

Want: 75%. Perfect Smash choice, the only thing is that Strider Hiryu is better.

Noms: Reimu x5

 

[fleshdude.gov]

Ryu II: "Gaiden" means "Spinoff" so this franchise's name makes no sense in English since it's not a spinoff of anything

Chance: 75%
I honestly think, completely divorced from leaks, that Ryu Hayabusa honestly has a lot going for him this time around. People are, quite honestly, underselling this character even more than they are Erdrick.

Firstly, Koei Tecmo got a new assist trophy in the form of Yuri Kozukata (of Fatal Frame Five fame) in Ultimate, signaling that not only is the company on-board with having their content in Smash, but that Nintendo is also interested in having their content in Smash. (Just because a company or development team has signaled that they would like to see their character in Smash, doesn't mean Nintendo is interested in having that content in Smash. This second half is a lot more important than people like to admit.) Koei Tecmo's good relationship with Nintendo in general is a very good sign for Ryu's chances.

People also tend to undersell just how big the original Ninja Gaiden for the NES was when it came out. Almost every publication and reviewer were calling it the best game of all time. The game is also quite important historically due to its groundbreaking use of multiple, fully-animated cutscenes, something which was just not done before then. It was also, quite notoriously, brutally difficult, to the point where Ryu Hayabusa is essentially the face of the term "Nintendo Hard." It has received several rereleases over the years - most recently, it was added to the NES Online games library, in late 2018.

Not only that, but Ryu has, unlike some other NES mascots, still makes appearances in video games. The Ninja Gaiden franchise continued beyond its initial game, though it has not had a new main-series installment since 2012. (We don't talk about Ninja Gaiden X.) Ryu also makes appearances in the Dead or Alive franchise as a playable guest character.

Overall, Ryu Hayabusa has both historical significance AND relevancy - so far, the only two factors that seem to have influenced the DLC picks for Smash. (Cloud and the other Ryu fall into the "Historical Significance" category, and Bayonetta, Corrin, and Joker all fall into the "Relevancy" category. Roy, Mewtwo, and Lucas all fall into the third category - "Veterans" - which is not applicable to Ultimate.) If this trend continues - which it likely will, due to the fact that characters in these two categories are very easy sells - then Ryu Hayabusa's looking to be on the short list for DLC.

It is worth noting, however, that I was unable to find just how big a game Ninja Gaiden NES was in terms of sales. (Was it more of a critical darling than a commercial success? It sold enough to warrant two more games on the NES and an SNES remaster though, so it definitely turned a large profit, so this was a bit of a moot point.)

Also, Sakurai has not really ever mentioned Ninja Gaiden as a major creative influence. The only namedrop of the franchise from him I can find is this article, where he mentioned it among several other games he bought for the Wii Virtual Console back in 2008. (For reference, that's question 37.) It's situated in a long list of classic games, though, so it's not nearly as relevant as, say, Sakurai's wholehearted endorsement of Persona 5.

Want: 50%
I am...conflicted. I like ninjas, and I respect Ninja Gaiden's contributions to gaming - it's entirely possible fully animated cutscenes would not be a thing in modern gaming without it. On the other hand, Ryu doesn't have that much that makes him stand out design wise to me - he's a ninja dude with ninja weapons - and he honestly feels like a character that would better suited for the base game then for DLC, in my opinion. You could do a hell of a lot worse, though, as we've seen previously.

Nominations: Glover x5

 

[Sid-cada]

Ryu Hayabusa

Chance - 40% - Right now I don't feel confident enough to give anyone even close to 50%, but Ryu is about as close as I feel confortable giving. Ninja Gaiden is one of the big NES names, and feels right at home with the likes of Mega Man, Castlevania, Zelda, etc. Koei Tecmo already has some representation in Smash, so it's not a big leap comparred to several other companies. His design, though, I don't feel is as iconic as several others, being mostly Ninja with little flourish. Combined with the uncertanty of DLC, this is about all I can give him.

Want - 75% - I have no real connection with him. That said, I do understand his place in history and recognize him as a fairly worth addition to the cast, so he has a better place than many third parties in my eyes. I would appreciate his inclusion, though I won't be enthused.


Nominations

Palico X5

 

[Ornl]

Ryu Hayabusa
Last RTC average ≈ 10%
Chance I think : 2,5 %

• Yes, Koei-Tecmo has developed IP Nintendo games such as Metroid: Other M, Hyrule Warriors, FE Warriors, Pokemon Conquest, and inclued Metroid content in Dead or Alive 3DS, Murasame content in Samurai Warriors 3... Yes, Maya, Mio, Mayu Amakura and Yuri Kozukata from Fatal Frame are in Smash Bros.
• Yes, Ryu Hayabusa comes from third-party license with Japanese origins whose first episode was released on NES before 199x, with at least 20 different games, like all the third-party Fighters except Sonic and the ballot choice Bayonetta.
• Ninja Gaiden and Dead or Alive have become famous licenses in other media than Nintendo, which is also reminiscent of the case of Persona. So I think it's a good point.

But
Ryu Hayabusa would be a Fighter from a very bloody license and another license known for its very big ( • )( • ). Bayonetta is already a mature anti-demon beat'em up DLC. Street Fighter is already the most iconic fighting game DLC. Belmont, Joker and potentially Brave are already new male humans with third-party licences appeared on NES. Joker is already a masked character in the dark, using (among others) melee weapon, with demons in his universe. I my opinion, Ryu Hayabusa hasn't fame equal to Pac-Man, Castlevania, Snake, Ryu, Mega Man, Sonic, Cloud, Persona and Dragon Quest.

 

[GoodGrief741]

Ryu Hayabusa is a masked character in the dark who fights demons, therefore 2.5%

God damn you make it so easy.

 

[3DSNinja]

also Ninja Gaiden is way more famous then Persona

 

[Nemuresu]

Hayabusa:
Chance: 50%- It's a gamble to me. He's got the pedigree that gets these characters to join Smash, but when I compared him to all the other big fish like Mega Man, Ryu or Snake, I can't help but find him too small. However, if Nintendo keeps including Ninja Gaiden on stuff like the Virtual Console, the NES classic or the Switch's online service, it's got to be for a reason, so I'd do wrong if I discredited the franchise's fame.
Want: 60%-While I wasn't able to complete Ninja Gaiden (the SNES version), I was sure as hell satisfied with what I did complete. Ryu has a good arsenal for a moveset, and what can't be taken directly from the NES games can use the Xbox ones or DoA as reference.
Nominations: Morrigan x5

 

[GoodGrief741]

Hayabusa:
Chance: 50%- It's a gamble to me. He's got the pedigree that gets these characters to join Smash, but when I compared him to all the other big fish like Mega Man, Ryu or Snake, I can't help but find him too small. However, if Nintendo keeps including Ninja Gaiden on stuff like the Virtual Console, the NES classic or the Switch's online service, it's got to be for a reason, so I'd do wrong if I discredited the franchise's fame.
Want: 60%-While I wasn't able to complete Ninja Gaiden (the SNES version), I was sure as hell satisfied with what I did complete. Ryu has a good arsenal for a moveset, and what can't be taken directly from the NES games can use the Xbox ones or DoA as reference.
Nominations: Morrigan x5

This is the first time I'm learning there's a SNES version of Ninja Gaiden. I should give it a go.

 

[jamesster445]

This is the first time I'm learning there's a SNES version of Ninja Gaiden. I should give it a go.

It's basically a port of the NES trilogy with debatedly worse music.

 

[Neosonic97]

Noms: Reimu x5

We already re-rated Reimu back in January. I don't think three months is long enough for ANOTHER re-rate, nor do I think anything new has come that alters Reimu's chances in any meaningful way.

Anywho...

The Second, possibly third, most famous Ryu (First is obviously Street Fighter's Ryu, the third-placer is Breath of Fire's Ryu if I'm not mistaken).

Chance: 45%
Hayabusa's got a long legacy, sure. He's one of THOSE NES Classics (It is, after all, one of the prime reasons he was included in the fan-made Super Mario Crossover alongside the likes of Mega Man and Simon Belmont). Koei Tecmo, the current owners of Ninja Gaiden, are on friendly terms with Nintendo. He's still fairly relevant and has a lot of historical significance. Still, though. I figure Ryu'd be a base roster character if anything, similar to how I see Tales' Lloyd Irving.

Want: 50%
I'm really on the fence here. On the one hand, Mr. Hayabusa certainly has the moveset potential and an uncommon design (Note: Ninja as fighters are not new to Smash. #658 exists after all), plus things that separate him pretty significantly from the already existing ninja in the roster. On the other hand, I don't have any real connection to Ninja Gaiden as a whole, and there are definitely characters I would pick before Mr. Hayabusa, whether it be my own personal bias or honest beliefs.

Noms: Saber (Fate) x5

 

[CallMeKnux]

We already re-rated Reimu back in January. I don't think three months is long enough for ANOTHER re-rate, nor do I think anything new has come that alters Reimu's chances in any meaningful way.

Anywho...

The Second, possibly third, most famous Ryu (First is obviously Street Fighter's Ryu, the third-placer is Breath of Fire's Ryu if I'm not mistaken).

Chance: 45%
Hayabusa's got a long legacy, sure. He's one of THOSE NES Classics (It is, after all, one of the prime reasons he was included in the fan-made Super Mario Crossover alongside the likes of Mega Man and Simon Belmont). Koei Tecmo, the current owners of Ninja Gaiden, are on friendly terms with Nintendo. He's still fairly relevant and has a lot of historical significance. Still, though. I figure Ryu'd be a base roster character if anything, similar to how I see Tales' Lloyd Irving.

Want: 50%
I'm really on the fence here. On the one hand, Mr. Hayabusa certainly has the moveset potential and an uncommon design (Note: Ninja as fighters are not new to Smash. #658 exists after all), plus things that separate him pretty significantly from the already existing ninja in the roster. On the other hand, I don't have any real connection to Ninja Gaiden as a whole, and there are definitely characters I would pick before Mr. Hayabusa, whether it be my own personal bias or honest beliefs.

Noms: Saber (Fate) x5

Whoopsies, there’s been so many ratings I can’t possibly keep track.