Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[SupriceSupplies]

Assist Trophies/Pokéballs: 99% deconfirm chance. Only way I see it not being the case is if a different character can replace the original AT while performing the same function. (Hypothetically speaking, Isaac gets replaced by Felix or Matthew or Shadow by Silver.) And even then, they'd have to create an extra model for them and potentially different animations. While I don't think it's out of the question, I don't think it's particularly likely since Nintendo or Sakurai and Crew may have had them as possibilities in the back of their minds as DLC candidates.

Mii costumes: 80% deconfirm chance.
It just feels like Rex's Mii costume was supposed to function as a consolation prize. If Nintendo proposed him to be DLC, I'm pretty sure Sakurai would've gone for him, leaving the Mii costume unnecessary. And I think (potential) future Mii costumes will fall in the same boat.

Spirits: 50% deconfirm chance.
Yes, they're the equivalent of trophies. But there are a few things to consider:
-They affect gameplay. While they'd be much easier to replace with a different png, I think they might fall into a similar situation as AT's, where they probably *could* be replaced, but if they were kept in mind as potential DLC candidates by Nintendo or Sora Ltd, I find it hard to believe they would be included as gameplay-affecting elements. (Then again, Robin's Final Smash says hi. So I may be completely wrong about this. Unless they replace Chrom last second or in a day 1 update with Morgan or something I don't know.)
-People have mentioned K. Rool, Kirby, and WFT, but these were "Kaptain K. Rool", "Robobot Armor Kirby", and "Tree". Not "King K. Rool", "Kirby", and "Wii Fit Trainer". I understand that within the game's lore they should be the same person, but that argument is thrown out of the window since Kirby didn't die in the World of Light trailer. Put it simply, the game definitely classifies them as different entities, and I believe they should therefore not be counted.
-Let's talk about Daisy. About her "fighter spirit", which I would consider counterproof, but there's one thing that keeps me hesitating from calling it that.
The render used for her fighter spirit is not her Smash render. It's why, much to my dismay, I'm not putting much faith into the likes of Dixie Kong and Impa.
Then again, I can't help but have a gut feeling it might not be a hard deconfirm. Maybe I just want to believe in the possibility that they could still make an entrance, but I'm not putting much stock into it.

 

[Ninjaed]

I can see some of you discussing how Mii costumes confirm or deconfirm. Rex's Mii costume is only in Ultimate so I can't tell, but some actual fighters have had Mii costumes. So it doesn't actually mean a thing - not all Mii costumes are equal, some are silly, some are "please and appease" while others are "considered fighters" like Heihachi.

Those that were in Sm4sh though, that's more interesting. Throwing it out here, I tried to analyse the characters represented via Mii costumes in Sm4sh. After all, 4 of them were upgraded into actual fighters in Ultimate, which is 16%. Anyway, it's all in more detail in this post (giving the link so as not to flood this page... it is quite a long post):

https://smashboards.com/threads/newcomer-speculation-discussion.453424/post-22689666

 

[Misery Brick]

Spirits:
Decomfirmation: 0%
Spirits are basically glorified trophies in Ultimate, albeit with actual gameplay incentive. Like that of Heroes and Heralds mode in UMvC3.
So just like the past iterations, having a trophy of a character in the game doesn’t deconfirm a character one bit. The thing for Spirits is that it’s much easier getting hundreds of character art, as opposed to making or importing a vast amount of 3D models.
So in terms of regarding a character’s deconfirmation, it doesn’t mean much at all. After all, playable characters have Spirits of their own.
While there is a possibility that a spirit may be the only piece of representation that a character may receive, it doesn’t determine anything.

Mii Costumes
Deconfirmation: 45%
Mii Costumes are more or less the consolation prizes for fans of characters, that for whatever reason, didn’t exactly make the cut.
Or they’re built off of already existing characters for fun.
Either way, I don’t think they mean too much at the end, as they can always be a playable character.
However, if your character received a Mii costume before any signs of being playable. Well, proceed with caution on their likelihood.

Assist Trophies/Poké Balls
Deconfirmation: 100%
Many tend to forget that Sakurai implements characters as Assist Trophies and Poké Balls, as he feels that’s the best way he can represent them outside of being playable.
Also, with Smash Ultimate, they’ve made them a bit more robust and serve as mini-bosses to fight on screen. Given all the work and man hours devoted to adding that content to the game, I doubt Sakurai and his team would do that if they were planning on implementing them later on.
After all, the character has a fully interactable on screen appearance, so don’t expect them to enter the stage through DLC.

 

[ShinyRegice]

To make it clear: technically, we can't prove that spirits, Assist Trophies or Mii costumes deconfirm characters for DLC. What if no character already in any of these categories gets in? Well, that doesn't prove a promotion isn't possible, it just proves that none of the chosen characters for DLC happen to already be present in the base game in another role; similar to how you can't prove there's no needle in a haystack without using radical means like a metal detector, Sakurai's words are probably going to be the only way the proposition "we won't promote characters who already have a role" can be confirmed. On the other hand such a promotion would confirm characters who already have such a role can be promoted, just like how fiding a needle in a haystack even by just searching it by hand can confirm there's one.

For this reason I'm not gonna rate the chances of the concept no character with [insert role here] can be promoted (impossible to prove just by looking at who actually gets in), but rather I'm gonna rate something that can be falsified without the need of Sakurai's words, which will be this simple concept: no character with [insert role here] will be promoted.

No Spirit promotion chances: 20%
Spirits have been presented as this game's equivalent to trophies and we have precedent for non-fighter trophies being promoted to DLC fighters in the same game (Mewtwo and Lucas). Nintendo not allowing themselves to promote them to playable would close the doors to literally hundreds of characters, some of which are quite popular among Smash speculators and other Nintendo fans. However, we've also seen fighter Spirits which are not equippable, and this seems to be the most compelling argument for no Spirit promotion. That said, this argument implies DLC fighters are gonna be included in this game the same way base game characters were, which contradicts Smash 4 DLC precedent (no Palutena's Guidance, no custom moves and placed at the end of the CSS regardless of the series they come from). It also implies that Sakurai and Nintendo would deliberately ignore to include equippable Spirits just to make sure they wouldn't be both equippable Spirits and playable which, considering the sheer amount of potentially deconfirmed characters and how easy they are to implement, sounds like micromanagement that's half plausible at best. If this concept ends up being confirmed, then it might very well be a coincidence rather than a confirmation of the rule that Spirits couldn't be promoted. But to be fair if Piranha Plant doesn't have an equippable Spirit in the base game then it's possible we might have a reason to be worried.

No Assist Trophy/Poké Ball chances: 85%
Unlike the previous one, this concept has good precedent as no Smash 4 Assist Trophy or Poké Ball got promoted to playable in the same game, and all characters who previously were Assists in previous games and were later promoted to playable fighters are now only present as the later. They require considerably more effort to be implemented than Spirits, making them more feel like they're supposed to not become playable for the foreseeable future, and they're considerably less numerous than Spirits. There is, however, a small chance that this concept could end up not being true, some reasons including:

• The popularity of some candidates, such as Isaac and Skull Kid.
• The possibility of Nintendo's choices ignoring whoever already was in the game in another role, but as it wouldn't require the same micromanagement as Spirits, this argument is less strong for ATs.
• The unprecedented presence of a character in two different roles with the same appearance (unlike something like the 8-bit dog or the Villagers with a different design in Smashville) in the form of Chrom becoming playable while keeping all the cameo roles he had with Robin in Smash 4, which arguably opens the floodgates for similar things.
• The bigger amount of work done for ATs could on the other hand be considered an advantage if Nintendo proposed a pool of characters to choose from to Sakurai for him to choose five from (rather than five being dictated by Nintendo with any replaced if Sakurai didn't agree), as it could ease the development of the character due to the model and some animations being already done.

Also fun fact, Scizor is now both a Poké Ball Pokémon and a background element in Kalos Pokémon League. While a similar thing already happened to Riki (both AT and in Shulk's Final Smash), he could never appear twice at the same time due to Shulk's FS being cinematic.

No new Mii costume promotion chances: 90%
Note this only applies for new Mii costumes, not returning ones. I don't believe returning DLC costumes have an effect on the chances of characters like Heihachi or Geno, assuming these costumes come back, due to the Chrom Mii costume returning despite Chrom being an actual playable character now. Again, I'm gonna go with precedent and since no Smash 4 Mii costume DLC was also sold as a fully-fledged character in the same game (I feel a bit silly in hindsight that I believed King K. Rool still had a solid shot for Smash 4 DLC after appearing as a DLC costume) it won't happen for this game either. Like Rex was a Mii costume and I believe he wouldn't have been put in such a role if he was planned to be a fully-fledged playable character, nor do I believe this costume was decided to be added before he would be selected as a DLC fighter later, basically I consider Rex a pretty close to deconfirmed. In addition none of the other characters confirmed to be Mii costumes I've seen so far seem like they have much of a chance regardless of the Mii costume anyway.

 

[TheCJBrine]

Disconfirming Characters:

Spirits: 0% - They're essentially this game's version of trophies/stickers, saying they disconfirm characters is like saying Mewtwo and Lucas were disconfirmed in Smash 4 before they became DLC. We also have Spirits based on fighters already, so I don't see an issue. Is it not weird that Wii Fit Trainer has Spirits that can be equipped? Daisy and Ridley have Spirits too, although they can't be equipped.

Mii Costumes: 0% - They may be added as a sort-of "consolation prize" sometimes, but I don't think they disconfirm anyone. Smash 4 had Samus' helmet as something Miis could wear, and this game has Chrom's Mii Costume coming back despite him being made playable.

Assist Trophies: 75% - Likely the only thing that disconfirms characters other than Nintendo and Sakurai themselves. I think Sakurai said something about it being "impossible" to upgrade ATs to playable status in the same game (though this was a long while back), but now we have Chrom as a playable character and as part of Robin's Final Smash even when Chrom is on the stage, so idk. I do think it's possible they could be made playable, but I wouldn't bet on it.

Tbh I think people should stop trying to use costumes and collectables as a way to disconfirm characters, it's kinda annoying. It's not the collectables that disconfirm characters, it's Sakurai and his team deciding not to make said characters playable, regardless of what collectables they add in the character's image. Lucas, Mewtwo, and Chrom prove this.

 

[MacDaddyNook]

Assist Trophies/Pokeballs: 99% Deconfirmation

Back in Brawl, Sakurai added ATs as a means to include more characters that don't quite make it as playable. I believe he has stated that in his eyes, it's a completely satisfactory way to represent a character.

Regardless, the team did go through the effort to model and code the AT/Pokeball summon, so it's highly unlikely that they would remove it outright for a playable fighter. It also seems like more work than it's worth to create a work-around to make the summon not show in instances when the playable version is in-game for DLC when they could just go with a character that doesn't need the extra resources to pull off the function. And, judging by how Spirit Tracks and Dreamland 64 go out of their way to remove a background variant of a fighter if said fighter is fighting on that stage, it seems unlikely that they would risk players getting confused with an NPC version and playable version running around at the same time.

Overall, it just doesn't look like same-game promotions will happen.

Mii Costume: 25% Deconfirmation
In Smash 4, we got Mii costumes based on playable fighters. It does look like this will be happening with Ultimate again, so it's not much of an indicator for who's out.

However, I do feel like Rex is out of the running by how Sakurai presented his costume. Why give a costume away for a character, presented as a consolation prize for his fans, as a bonus for the bundle if said fighter would be part of the bundle required to get the costume in the first place? Seems a bit redundant, so I'm going to have to say, in this case, the costume does point toward Rex being out of the running.

Spirits: 10% Deconfirmation

This one is more of a wild card. We've seen alternate forms of playable fighters appear as spirits so far, as well as fighterless trophies, the analog to Spirits, becoming fighters in the previous games.

I think those without a Spirit battle should be safe. But those where a battle dedicated to recreating a particular character doesn't look as good. Out of all the options, Spirits do seem to be the least likely to count out a character though.

 

[YoshiandToad]

DECONFIRMATIONS

Mii outfits: 80%(New outfits), 5%(Old outfits)
Of the new costumes, honestly only Rex seems like he would have been considered for DLC had Sakurai not ran out of time. I'd love it to not be an issue as you better believe I'd be down with Chibi-Robo, but alas I doubt he's getting in now.

As for the old costumes; providing they aren't already Assist Trophies(Ashley, Takamaru, Knuckles) I don't see why they couldn't be promoted in the DLC. Chrom's outfit is still in, and it wouldn't surprise me to see K. Rool or Isabelle's return too.

Spirits: 5%
There's a lot of these, but I don't want to give a flat 0% to this either as I think it's mildly more complicated than that.
Yes, Daisy, Wii Fit Trainer and K. Rool have Spirit forms as well, but their spirits were added AFTER their inclusion in the game so characters like Chibi-Robo, Dixie Kong, Micaiah, Shantae, etc aren't a definite 'can get in', but it's looking far far FAR more positive than negative in that department for it being a flat 'nope'.

Assist Trophy Promotion: 99%
Yeah, I'm in team Assists aren't getting in. After all the effort Sakurai went to create the Assist Trophy, I cannot see the likes of Waluigi, Isaac, Shadow, Bomberman or Krystal getting upgraded to playable in the same game. If Nintendo suggest Waluigi for example, I can see Sakurai denying them due to their current role but they'll probably be shoe-ins for the next game.

Unfortunately for me I also feel that way about Pokeballs which instantly scraps any Pokemon I'd want to see as a playable such as Meowth, Eevee(with all the Let's Go Promotion even) or Gardevoir.

Gonna do the other two too:

Stage Hazards and elements: 50%
Slightly awkward one for me as it depends on what they do.
For example Pauline isn't getting in due to her active role in the stage and being prominently featured, but Captain Toad is just hanging in the background not doing diddly squat so his removal wouldn't really affect a thing for that stage.

Characters in movesets(aka, the Chrom effect): 0% deconfirmation now.
Chrom can kill himself if Robin gets a Final Smash. There's nothing to prevent Tom Nook, Fiora, Dunban, Protoman, Bass, Paula and yeah, my boy Toad from being promoted from another's moveset now other than Nintendo's decisions.

 

[DaUsername]

Stage Hazards and elements: 50%
Slightly awkward one for me as it depends on what they do.
For example Pauline isn't getting in due to her active role in the stage and being prominently featured, but Captain Toad is just hanging in the background not doing diddly squat so his removal wouldn't really affect a thing for that stage.

There's also the fact that is playable despite being a hazard on Mushroom Kingdom 64.

 

[SmasherMaster]

I'll go through the list of possible deconfirmations, only keeping in mind Season 1 DLC.

ASSIST TROPHIES/ POKEBALL POKEMON: 99.99% DECONFIRMED
Unless Nintendo was pushing very hard on Sakurai about a character with this role or gave a list of possible choices than only included four Non-Assist Trophy characters, I don't see it.

Mii Costumes: 45% DECONFIRMED
My thoughts is that only the Mii costumes that will be added for Ultimate (especially the DLC ones if we get more). While we do have Mii costumes or hats for characters like Samus, Meta Knight, Chrom, etc, it would be weird for the to go out of the way to make a Mii costume for a character they are now revealing to also be downloaded. Rex and any future DLC mii costumes are in a tier of their own.

SPIRITS: 20% DECONFIRMED
It really depends on how far into the development process these choices for DLC were made. And I still am confused about Spirits in general.

Bonus Ones

MOVESET: 50% DECONFIRMED
I think that if the character was previously in a veteran's moveset in a previous game and not added for Ultimate. Yes, Chrom is both playable and part of Robin's final smash, but it wasn't like it was previous Morgan or Tharja. So a character like Toad, Tom Nook or the various other Megaman are fair game in my opnion, but not characters like Bass, Proto Man, Fiora, Kumatora, etc because why add them into a final smash if you were thinking about adding them as DLC?

STAGE HAZARDS: 50%
It depends on your role in the stage. If you are active in the battle like Nabbit, I feel like you are probably going to remain there, but if you are there for aesthetic reasons, you could probably be easy to replace or remove.

VOICE ACTORS/ DEVELOPERS STATEMENTS: 0%
If the voice actor or company is targeted with a question, why would the character is in? It would cause a lot of legal trouble, and maybe even get them fired from voicing that character.

 

[Jomosensual]

Mii Costume - 0. Falcon, samus, Chrom, and others still have Mii costumes in the game even though they're playable. That being said, I think the way Rex had his costume shown off de-confirms him, because I don't think sakurai would have focused on him specifically if they were going to add him to the game later.

ATs/Pokeballs - 100. After all the effort that went in to creating the ATs and Pokeballs I can't see them being removed in favor of being DLC.

Non Video Game characters - 100. Never going to happen. I assume the criteria laid out in the ballot is what they'll continue to use here and they seem fairly committed to it, so it would make no sense to suddenly go back and toss someone like Harry Potter in.

spirits - 50. sitting on the fence for this one. With spirits being successors to trophies I don't think it should completely count anyone out, but at the same time it doesn't make me feel like they're any closer to being playable and could be another way to throw popular characters into the game without making them playable ATs, or Pokeballs.

Background characters - 40. same thought process as spirits, but I have these characters as a little less likely since they're easier to remove or replace, assuming they don't interact with the fighters or play significant roles on the stage.

Moveset fighers: 99 - Can't see this happening. Chrom being in Robins final smash obviously messes with this a little bit, but my theory on that is that Chrom was one of the final characters added to the game and they were far enough along in development that it was either too late or just not a high priority to take him out. This time around I can't see someone like Bass or any of the Mother characters who were just added into final smashes being a part of DLC. sakurai likely at least had a small idea of who could be potential DLC characters and I dont think he'd go through the extra work of adding people into final smashes or movesets just to have to remove them later. The only reason I leave the door a very tiny bit open is because of Toad, who I could see being added through the same way Yoshi is in the game, where there are a bunch of Yoshis and Toads, but the main one is playable while the rest of the species are considered side characters.

 

[ShinyRegice]

There's also the fact that is playable despite being a hazard on Mushroom Kingdom 64.

To be fair background elements with a different appearance compared to playable characters (like 8-bit dog or of the background Villagers with a different design in Smashville) have never mattered so this is not new.

 

[VexTheHex]

Spirits - 1% - There's a lot of them and it's already been pointed out that some characters and even ATs have Spirits like Spring Man, Wii Fit Trainer, King K Rool. I doubt they affect anything.


Assist Trophies or Pokeballs - 95% - Let's be honest here, it'd be a lot easier and practical to choose from the millions of other characters than 100% remove or change one of the ATs. I supported Spring Man, Ashley, Waluigi, Shadow, Isaac, Gardevoir and Sable Prince all to varying degrees. But I find it hard to believe they'd go through the efforts to do this. It could also be argued as confusion if Shadow and AT Shadow are both on the field at the same time. If removed, they'd basically be scraping an entire summon item from everyone's game. I doubt people would like that especially if they aren't buying the DLC.

Arms might get skipped over like Splatoon in 4. Ashley and Waluigi were beat out by Daisy and Piranha Plant. (Plus there's still Captain Toad, King Boo, or Paper Mario) Tails or Eggman could be a Sonic rep instead especially since the DLC will all be unique newcomers. Isaac has a strong fanbase on here, but he is off pretty much everyone else's radars. Though if they make a sequel, we could get the new protagonist. (with hopefully a more compelling design or Adult Isaac) And lastly Sable Prince never had a strong shot anyways. And Gardevoir is moved past just as is Gen 5 without much hope of representation inthe playable form as Gen 8 approaches as well.

I leave that 5% for the unexpected and my little bit of hope Spring Man can show up somehow as I like his design and think he could be unique fighting wise. Also if Adult Isaac stars in Golden Sun 4... I could see Isaac technically being added.


Mii Costume - 40% - Not really big on the Miis in general, but I do think there is solid chance these things are considered consolation prizes.


Background - 25% - Ones that can interacted with are probably done for. The ones like Captain Toad have a solid chance.


Moveset - 85% - Toad is the only one I can see breaking this one. Chrom could be an exception more so than anything else. Since echoes are not added or ordered by their addition to the game, it's possible Chrom was one of the last characters added.

 

[YoshiandToad]

The only reason I leave the door a very tiny bit open is because of Toad, who I could see being added through the same way Yoshi is in the game, where there are a bunch of Yoshis and Toads, but the main one is playable while the rest of the species are considered side characters.

Moveset - 85% - Toad is the only one I can see breaking this one.

TCT~Phantom I have a request! For Captain Toad's rerate day can we whap it into a double fungus day and do regular Toad too? Captain Toad's got the stage element thing going, but Chrom left the door open for classic Toad.

 

[PeridotGX]

Do Spirits disconfirm?

No. They were literally made to replace trophies. and got in 4, so by principle spirit upgrades are allowed.

Do Mii Costumes disconfirm?

Depends. I don't think returning costumes matter much, but new DLC ones are disconfirmations.

Do ATs deconfirm? (and Pokeballs, everyone forgets the poor things)

Most Likely. The DLC characters were chosen around when the base roster was. I doubt Sakurai would make a character he knows will be playable an AT.

 

[Wyoming]

Timing is very key here. We got DLC announced before release with one character already on its way. Sakurai has then made a statement saying the line-up is now complete (either they just finalized it or it was a general statement stated to stop flooding of requests from fans since the selection was decided some time ago - which is the way I interpret it)

This, to me, disconfirms assist trophies for sure. If they were planning on using a character why add them to this role now? It's a waste of resources, really. It tells me that Sakurai saw merit in the character but not enough to be playable for the time being. And he made that decision knowing full-well how highly requested some of them were.

Mii costumes are a tricky one. We got Mii costumes-turned-characters but not within the same title. Veterans getting costumes means nothing as A. They're already on the roster and the assets exist, and B. It wasn't a conscious decision to include them as decoration. Chrom's costume existed in a prior game and it works well for a generic sword-fighter concept.

If we go by the entire idea behind Mii Costumes ("make your own fighters come to live") then honestly I'd say this disconfirms them for the time being. The way the Rex costume was handled strengthens that belief as it sounded like they wanted the character but they couldn't begin work on him. Yes that might mean purely for the base roster, but the very fact that DLC was announced so close to it makes me think the ship has sailed...for this fighter pass at least.

Now if there's a season 2 of fighters, then I'd say these costumes have a chance. it's clear that season 2 hasn't been decided on yet, and if they do take up the challenge then the newer characters can finally be worked on. Keep in mind this pass has a maximum deadline of February 2020. We'll probably know if there's a fighter pass season 2 by holiday 2019/early 2020.

I am not sure if assist trophies would have a better chance in a season 2, but I would include them in the discussion to be selected in this scenario unlike this pass.

Spirits is the true divisive one. I do think they could disconfirm on the concept of Spirits alone. It's a "they aren't in Smash, but here they are contributing to the game in some form!" viewpoint of their inclusions. Yes, trophies existed, but they didn't have any gameplay significance. They were merely collectables. Spirits are mimicking the soul present before the battle to give each match some flair. From a Sakurai point of view I do think people should consider this possibility, especially due to the timing of everything being announced on the same day.

But physically the characters aren't there and they can't be "replicated" with the Mii Fighters. That leaves their status more uncertain and they certainly have a better chance at being DLC than costumes and assist trophies for the incoming wave of fighters.

And honestly this could be debunked fairly easily if someone finds a non-fighter Piranha Plant spirit in game. If not, that should raise a few doubts.

 

[RealPokeFan11]

TCT~Phantom do you think it's a good time to start the first day of Rate their chances DLC?

 

[TCT~Phantom]

TCT~Phantom do you think it's a good time to start the first day of Rate their chances DLC?

No.

That will be tomorrow at 1 pm est.

 

[RealPokeFan11]

No.

That will be tomorrow at 1 pm est.

Ok thanks

 

[Kotor]

Do my ears deceive me? Am I hearing Ray Chase voicing Roy?

 

[aarchak]

Do my ears deceive me? Am I hearing Ray Chase voicing Roy?

Dang, I didn't know Noctis was in Smash.

 

[Hollywoodrok12]

I missed the Chances for season 2 and predictions for S1, so I'm just gonna say them now: Want: 100% (Prefereably without Sakurai. He deserves his break). As for my chance score: 10%. While I could see Nintendo wanting to make more money with Smash, there's the fact that Sakurai just stopped DLC after only 7 fighters, and is really tired out now to the point in which he expressed his discomfort during the direct.

DLC Predictions:

Spoiler: Fighters 1-3 are leaked.

Steve (Minecraft), Eldrick (Dragon Quest) and Katalina (Granblue Fantasy). These three were leaked by Hitagi, who shares sources with Vergeben, so we know this person should be believed. Hope you didn't want Geno/Sora, Euden or Shantae

4: Byleth (FE Three Houses). Nintendo's picking DLC, so they're gonna want to pick characters to promote their new games. That's how Corrin got into Smash 4. I know some people have been mentioning Edelgard, but, from the looks of it, she's not the protagonist; Byleth is.
5: Gen 8 Pokemon. Same as Byleth, except we actually don't know who they're going to pick since we haven't seen any Gen 8 mons besides Meltan and Melmetal. While Melmetal would work, I doubt he's going to keep his relevance goin into Gen 8.

Now onto todays topic: What are the chances that X deconfirms a character?

Misc Roles: 95%. If a fighter has a role in the game, they probably don't plan on making them a fighter. The remaining 5% is reserved for the few instances where a character is just standing around at the back and having no interaction with the fighters, like Toon Link. Even then, they're still highly unlikely. And for the record. Chrom is most likely an exception, since he's the only one to be both a FS and Fighter at the same time, so he's probably a last-minute addition.

Important person talking about/deconfirming them: 95%. Them talking about the fighter would break any NDA that they have, which would imply that there never was one to begin with. And a deconfirmation is a deconfirmation. I didn't leave it at 100% because there's the off chance that the're just doing it to mess with us and make us think there's no NDA or chance of them appearing.

Assist Trophies/Pokeballs: 100%. These are obvious. They deconfirmed characters since the beginning, and Sakurai has explicitly stated during Brawl and Smash 4 that Walugi wouldn't be joinging the battle due to his AT status. Pokeballs are just Pokemon exclusive ATs that you throw.

Mii Costumes: 100%. Every Mii costume is either based on a previous fighter, based on a fighter appearing in a future game (Chrom, Inkling, etc.) or is not a fighter at all. A Mii costume is not necessarily a hard deconfirmation, but, since we know the DLC fighters have already been decided, a confirmation that the team has no plans to add that fighter to this game.

Spirits: 100%. That is not a typo. Sprits 100% deconfirm fighters.
1:Let me debunk some of the main counterarguments:

A: Fighter Spirit: Fighter Spirits act differently from normal spirits in that they cannot be upgraded or equipped; only looked at. Because of this, you can't just convert a normal spirit to a fighter spirit.

B: Spirits: Each of these spirits are a different version of an existing character. Their spirit counterparts are eached treated as separate from their original character. Kaptain K. Rool is King's alternate Identity, like Dr. Mario. The WFT ones are just embodiments of one of their poses. And Kirby is treated as a different character, just like Kaptain and Dr. Because of their fundemental differences, they're not treated as Fighter Spirits.

C1: Trophies: These 2 came back to Smash 4 after being trophies in Smash 4. This debunks trophy deconfirmations, right? Not necessarily. I think of Lucas and Mewtwo as the exceptions rather than the rule, since they both were already veterans. A newcomer has never sucessfully made the jump in the same game, just like Mii outfits.

C2: Spirits being the same as Trophies: Trophies are figures of characters that don't have any role on the battlefield, while Spirits are the souls of those characters that do have a role on the battlefield. Sakurai even stated that he wanted to incorporate characters outside of Fighters and ATs on the battlefield.

2: DLC was already picked: If Sakurai had plans of making a certain character DLC, then he would have kept them from becoming Spirits.

Spoiler: 3: Hitagi and Vergeben Talk

3: Hitagi. Hitagi shares Vergeben's sources and confirmed that Spirits will not become fighters. After all Verge has gotten right, it wouldnt make sense for Verge, Hitagi and their multiple mutual sources to be frauds.

TL;DR: Important people decinfirming might be lying, but are probably telling the truth, and any role is a deconfirmation, since DLC has already been chosen and Sakurai wouldn't have put them in that role knowing that they'd be fighters later down the line.

 

[TheCJBrine]

Spoiler: Fighters 1-3 are leaked.

Steve (Minecraft), Eldrick (Dragon Quest) and Katalina (Granblue Fantasy). These three were leaked by Hitagi, who shares sources with Vergeben, so we know this person should be believed. Hope you didn't want Geno/Sora, Euden or Shantae

Just sayin', no one leaked Erdick. For all we know, we could get Slime, or maybe Geno still because it being a DQ character isn't definite.

Also, Chrom is a Mii Costume, and Samus is Mii headgear (or Samus was in Smash 4 at least).

 

[Hollywoodrok12]

Just sayin', no one leaked Erdick. For all we know, we could get Slime, or maybe Geno still because it being a DQ character isn't definite.

Also, Chrom is a Mii Costume, and Samus is Mii headgear (or Samus was in Smash 4 at least).

Spoiler: Leak Talk

I'm pretty sure Hitagi leaked Eldrick

Also, not trying to be rude, but I already acknowledged those other points:

Misc Roles: 95%. If a fighter has a role in the game, they probably don't plan on making them a fighter. The remaining 5% is reserved for the few instances where a character is just standing around at the back and having no interaction with the fighters, like Toon Link. Even then, they're still highly unlikely. And for the record. Chrom is most likely an exception, since he's the only one to be both a FS and Fighter at the same time, so he's probably a last-minute addition.

Mii Costumes: 100%. Every Mii costume is either based on a previous fighter, based on a fighter appearing in a future game (Chrom, Inkling, etc.) or is not a fighter at all. A Mii costume is not necessarily a hard deconfirmation, but, since we know the DLC fighters have already been decided, a confirmation that the team has no plans to add that fighter to this game.

A newcomer has never sucessfully made the jump in the same game, just like Mii outfits.

 

[TheCJBrine]

Spoiler: Leak Talk

I'm pretty sure Hitagi leaked Eldrick

Also, not trying to be rude, but I already acknowledged those other points:

Hitagi did not leak Erdick, all he said about DQ was that he heard some names but the info could be false or something. And based on what Vergeben said about SE, any info about a character from them may just as well be false until it's officially announced.

Didn't realize your Mii Costume points, alright then. Works for me if it's true 'cause that won't disconfirm Geno then, but still I feel these patterns are silly because it ultimately depends on Sakurai, Nintendo, and other companies, and we don't know how they think.

I also see no reason why, if a playable character already has a costume or something, then a newcomer couldn't as well.

 

[UtopianPoyzin]

Glad you mentioned it.

The rerate schedule would have been up today. But I had one minor snag. Well two. Spirits and Assist Trophies.

I need to hear from you all what they mean for characters. If we were to consider ATs for DLC, the ones I would highlight would be Ashley, Bomberman, Isaac, Lyn, Shovel Knight, and Waluigi. Spirits is less of a big conundrum but thee are some people who murmur about how a spirit deconfirms a character. Mii costumes are a bit weird. Part of this whole sitch is the season 2 debacle. If there is a season 2, I feel Rex would be a lock given his treatment in R1. But otherwise it is a 0.

What I am trying to say is that there are characters that I feel would be important to rate if we decided Spirits were fair game, or even ATs.


Here are the characters I think would be the best place to start for a new fixed schedule. I will not have ATs on here just for sake of arguement.

Dixie
Bandana Dee
Rex
Geno
Melmetal
Edelgard
Rayman
Banjo
Steve
Erdrick
Slime
Sora
Sans
Shantae
Crash Bandicoot
Doomguy
Travis Touchdown
Celica
Lycanroc
Chibi Robo
Ray MK III
Saki
Paper Mario
Captain Toad
Lip
Professor Layton
Phoenix Wright
Jibanyan
Lloyd Irving
Heihatchi
Leon Scott Kennedy


And From the noms list, a few that I felt we should do.

Merric @Opossum
Character Alternate Costume as DLC
Barbara the Bat
Prince (Katamari)
Chorus Kids
Xurkitree
Joker (Persona 5)
Master Chief
2B


But lets talk about spirits and whatnot today, because I feel having that discussion on Spirits, ATs, and potentially mii costumes is healthy.

n-GAH?! I really felt that sharp pain in my chest. You didn't include Quote on the list, but you put SANS as a viable contender? Come on... ah well. I still think that Quote is the only indie character that has a chance at DLC, it wouldn't hurt to get a rating in my opinion. After all, it's up to you, but I'd appreciate if we rated his chances for DLC--Not immediately, but at some point.



With that aside, the main reason I wrote this is because you are missing Elma from the list, given that there isn't any Xenoblade Chronicles X content appearing in Smash as of yet, and Elma is on many people's top 5 for DLC chance.

 

[PeridotGX]

Glad you mentioned it.

The rerate schedule would have been up today. But I had one minor snag. Well two. Spirits and Assist Trophies.

I need to hear from you all what they mean for characters. If we were to consider ATs for DLC, the ones I would highlight would be Ashley, Bomberman, Isaac, Lyn, Shovel Knight, and Waluigi. Spirits is less of a big conundrum but thee are some people who murmur about how a spirit deconfirms a character. Mii costumes are a bit weird. Part of this whole sitch is the season 2 debacle. If there is a season 2, I feel Rex would be a lock given his treatment in R1. But otherwise it is a 0.

What I am trying to say is that there are characters that I feel would be important to rate if we decided Spirits were fair game, or even ATs.


Here are the characters I think would be the best place to start for a new fixed schedule. I will not have ATs on here just for sake of arguement.

Dixie
Bandana Dee
Rex
Geno
Melmetal
Edelgard
Rayman
Banjo
Steve
Erdrick
Slime
Sora
Sans
Shantae
Crash Bandicoot
Doomguy
Travis Touchdown
Celica
Lycanroc
Chibi Robo
Ray MK III
Saki
Paper Mario
Captain Toad
Lip
Professor Layton
Phoenix Wright
Jibanyan
Lloyd Irving
Heihatchi
Leon Scott Kennedy


And From the noms list, a few that I felt we should do.

Merric @Opossum
Character Alternate Costume as DLC
Barbara the Bat
Prince (Katamari)
Chorus Kids
Xurkitree
Joker (Persona 5)
Master Chief
2B


But lets talk about spirits and whatnot today, because I feel having that discussion on Spirits, ATs, and potentially mii costumes is healthy.

Sorry for the late requests, but there are a few things I think you should add. Specifically Tails/Concept: Sonic Newcomer, Elma, and Concept: Echo Fighters released seprately from the Fighter Pass.

 

[TCT~Phantom]

I’ll post the exact schedule later I have had a tech snafu.

Today, rate Melmetal and predict Edelgard.

 

[PeridotGX]

(Note: For all my DLC posts, I'm grading for Season 1 unless stated otherwise)

Melting Metal

Chance: 3%. Doesn't look all that likely honestly. Rex was already passed up for being to recent, a character slightly a year younger than that doesn't look good. The only way I can see it getting in is if they for some reason add Regirock/Regigigas and make Melmetal an Echo Fighter. But Regigigias isn't happening either.

Want: 25%. Why not, I'm a Pokemon fan and he looks cool. There are others I'd prefer, but he's acceptable.

Nominations: Grovyle (PMD) x5

 

[Ridrool64]

Melmetal, a Pokémon I doubt many of us have ever used at all.

Chance: 10%. We're probably getting a starter, as is tradition, and that assumes that Gen 8 even qualifies since it's so incredibly new. I could easily see Gen 8 being the Hoenn or Unova of Smash: not relevant enough for inclusion.

Want: 35%. Not much to say other than after skipping Gen 7, I do intend to return to Pokémon for Gen 8 (maybe not LGP/LGE though)

Predictions: Edelgard will have 45~60% Chance and 20~15% Want.

Nominations: Arle Nadja x 5

 

[WaddleMatt]

Melmetal:

Chance - 5%

I swear everytime the first new big Pokemon for a generation is revealed people latch on to it for Smash. I personally think Melmetal is way too new for Smash but anything can happen these days. He seems more like a good fit for a Poke Ball though.

Want - 0%

Sorry but there is other Pokemon that I am way more interested in. Also I don't think I would like playing as him at all.

Nominations: Rhythm Girl x5

 

[Sari]

Melmetal

Chance: 2%
I doubt we will be getting a new Pokemon rep at all since we know almost nothing about Gen VIII at the moment and the DLC has already been finalized. Assuming Game Freak gave Sakurai the entire Gen VIII roster to choose from, there is probably at least one Pokemon who would offer something more interesting than Melmetal.

Want: 0%
Doesn’t interest me and there are tons of other Pokemon I’d prefer to see instead. Also I hate its design.

Edelgard chance predictions: 40%

Nominations:
Concept: Surprise echo character DLC x5

 

[GoodGrief741]

Melmetal

I’ll be abstaining from chance scores from now on, as I feel like my thoughts are skewed to the most negative possible and I don’t really know where the DLC is headed.

Want: 20%
I like his design, but he wouldn’t be getting in for any reason other than Pokémon tokenism and I’ve had enough of that with Incineroar. Is he from Pokémon Go? Because if so I don’t think he stands a chance unless he actually appears in a Gen 8 game.

Nominations will be counted as of today.

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

Melmetal
Chance: 10%
With Icinaroar being picked before Sun&Moon were even shown to the public timing likely wouldn't be an issue. I don't think we'll be getting anymore Pokemon as DLC however and even if we do it's no guaranteeit would be this one. Alot of people thought Zoroark was a shoo in for Sm4sh and that didn't happen.

Want: 0%
Just like with FE I don't want this franchise to recieve anymore newcomers. I really don't like characters getting in for the sake of avertising some game that would sell well regardless. Also I have no interest in the Let's go games, they look way to casual to me.

Edelgard: 27.46% (plz bring back calcs)

Concept: CGI trailers for DLC newcomers barring Piranha Plant x5

 

[RealPokeFan11]

BATTLEBOTS GIANT NUT (please tell me I'm not the only one who watches this show...)
Chance: 50%
Want: 70%

Jesus, Meltan got huge.

Knowing that Nintendo chose all the DLC characters this time, there is the chance of a promotional character or 2. The 2 that come to mind are Edelgard (tomorrow's character) and Melmetal. This one would anger a lot less people than yet another Fire Emblem sword user, considering that Pokémon are completely unique, and ALWAYS have moveset potential. (Unless your name is Unown or Magikarp.) Melmetal is a big, hulking giant, so it might have to be shrunken down a little bit. It has an exclusive move called Double Iron Bash, which hits twice and also has a chance to flinch. (Correct me if I'm wrong.) It would correctly represent the steel type, and would make a really cool heavyweight. (Let's pretend Lucario isn't a steel type, because he doesn't even use any steel type moves in Smash!) I prefer Xurkitree, but I'll take Melmetal if it makes it in as DLC.

Predictions: Edelgard 50%

Nominations: Reaper (Overwatch) x5

 

[Kotor]

Melmetal

Chance: 0%
Want: 0%

I am skeptical Melmetal would be added in as a playable character. Would probably work out fine as a Poke Ball summon. Is the thing suppose to be Gen VII or Gen VIII? Could a Pokemon be added in as DLC? Possibly, but we know knowing about what's even in Gen VIII to make a safe guess.

Kracko as a boss character x5

 

[Cabbagehead]

Melmetal

Chance: 25%
From the leakers insisting that DLC is pretty much exclusively third-party, to the shadowy, faceless entity known as "Nintendo" picking the DLC (and considering how "corporate" that sounds, I'm basically prepping for my personal worst-case scenario), to my own home-grown negativity about DLC doing nothing that interests me, I have a hunch that Nintendo's own IPs will have nary a presence in this Season Pass. That being said, if there is a company powerful enough to influence Nintendo from the outside, it is The Pokemon Company, so I suppose there's always the possibility.

Want: 60%
While I know very little about Melmetal, the stuff that I do know about it is pretty cool. First of all, it's a Pokemon, and the Pokemon franchise is pretty much the most unique pool of potential fighters Smash could ever ask for. Also, I really like Pokemon, and so do tons of people the world over, so the more, the merrier.

Secondly, it's a Steel-type, and while Lucario also bears that typing, Lucario primarily focuses on the Fighting-typing (and the whole "Aura" dynamic). In other words, Melmetal would be the first Steel-type who actually takes elements from said typing.

Thirdly, its appearance would be unique among the rest of the Pokemon roster, and for a number of reasons:
- It isn't a starter.
- It isn't a "cool, bipedal animal".
- It isn't a "small, cute animal".
- Outside of Charizard (who is tied to two other characters), Melmetal would be the first true heavyweight Pokemon.
- Melmetal would be the first "inanimate object" Pokemon in Smash, and the only Pokemon who isn't "elemental animal"...well, other than Jigglypuff, but I don't really know what Jigglypuff is supposed to be.

(Also, considering how many characters that I actually would care about have gotten the axe before DLC was officially announced, a new Pokemon is pretty much my only hope of getting me remotely interested in this DLC.)

On the flipside, I don't actively want Melmetal, I just see a lot of merits to having him on the roster. I have my own favorite Pokemon, and if I could choose between them and Melmetal, I'd go with my favorites, naturally.

 

[Jomosensual]

Melmetal

Chance: 0. If Rex was too new I highly doubt we'll get a character who we didn't know about until about a month ago. Think we're much more likely to see a Gen 8 Pokemon as DLC personally, and I can't imagine that we're getting more than one rep from certain franchises in DLC. Would be a really cool addition via DLC though if Pokeballs or ATs would come with a character

Want: 20. I really like Melmetal, but I don't know if he'd be that fun or unqiue to play as. If they could find a way to make its absorbing ability work then absolutely, but otherwise I think its better as a Pokeball

Nominations
Gen 8 Pokemon x5

 

[GoodGrief741]

Melmetal
Chance: 10%
With Icinaroar being picked before Sun&Moon were even shown to the public timing likely wouldn't be an issue. I don't think we'll be getting anymore Pokemon as DLC however and even if we do it's no guaranteeit would be this one. Alot of people thought Zoroark was a shoo in for Sm4sh and that didn't happen.

Want: 0%
Just like with FE I don't want this franchise to recieve anymore newcomers. I really don't like characters getting in for the sake of avertising some game that would sell well regardless. Also I have no interest in the Let's go games, they look way to casual to me.

Edelgard: 27.46% (plz bring back calcs)

Concept: CGI trailers for DLC newcomers barring Piranha Plant x5

Had to say, I love your new avatar.

BATTLEBOTS GIANT NUT (please tell me I'm not the only one who watches this show...)
Chance: 50%
Want: 70%

Jesus, Meltan got huge.

Knowing that Nintendo chose all the DLC characters this time, there is the chance of a promotional character or 2. The 2 that come to mind are Edelgard (tomorrow's character) and Melmetal. This one would anger a lot less people than yet another Fire Emblem sword user, considering that Pokémon are completely unique, and ALWAYS have moveset potential. (Unless your name is Unown or Magikarp.) Melmetal is a big, hulking giant, so it might have to be shrunken down a little bit. It has an exclusive move called Double Iron Bash, which hits twice and also has a chance to flinch. (Correct me if I'm wrong.) It would correctly represent the steel type, and would make a really cool heavyweight. (Let's pretend Lucario isn't a steel type, because he doesn't even use any steel type moves in Smash!) I prefer Xurkitree, but I'll take Melmetal if it makes it in as DLC.

Predictions: Edelgard 50%

Nominations: Reaper (Overwatch) x5

Edelgard isn’t a swordfighter.

 

[Erimir]

Melmetal chance: 4%
Basically, we already have Incineroar (and the return of Pichu, Ivysaur and Squirtle) and while Pokemon is huge, it already has a large cast. There is definitely a chance of a Pokemon character being DLC, but it's hardly a shoo-in. Would that character be Melmetal? It looks like it could be an interesting addition, but I have no reason to think it's highly likely. Basically, Pokemon has maybe a 30% chance, and any individual Pokemon is going to have a portion of that (ones like Decidueye still have a chance too, and there are other new Pokemon that could be in as well).
Melmetal want: 55%
It looks ok, but I don't have strong thoughts on Pokemon. I slightly prefer an unrepresented type like ground/rock or ice, maybe bug or ghost. Now, Lucario is technically a steel type, but it isn't reflected in his moves and only slightly in his design, so Melmetal would be quite different. I'd also say the "unrepresented types" include fairy and poison, despite Jigglypuff and Ivysaur since they don't reference it much, you could maybe make a case for flying.

Discussion on disconfirming criteria...

Precedent: People keep talking about precedent, but while we have strong precedents for base game rosters, we have weak precedents for DLC.

For base rosters, we know that no character was an AT/Pokeball and playable. No character was revealed first as a background element, Mii costume or trophy and then revealed as playable in the base game.

For DLC, however, our precedents are limited to seven characters. There is one of three big problems with all of them as precedents, however.

Mewtwo, Lucas, Roy - You could say we did see them as trophies before they were DLC. Ok, that's fine. The problem is that they're all veterans, and so they were not newcomers who were first revealed as trophies. But we know that every DLC character will be a newcomer, so this is a lot less helpful. None of the DLC newcomers in Smash 4 were shown as trophies before being announced.

Corrin - Corrin didn't really exist before the base game was released, and certainly not a year before release. S/he probably could not have been part of the original DLC plans. Sakurai's statement implies that the 5 DLC characters all had to be on Nintendo's list at least a year ago. So Corrin is not a helpful precedent.

Ryu, Cloud, Bayonetta - these are somewhat more useful. They're all 3rd-parties, and I think that 3rd-parties are probably strong candidates for DLC because they can use a portion of the DLC revenue as a negotiating chip. But you wouldn't have expected them to appear as Mii costumes or anything before they were announced.

But can we say that characters that were ATs/Pokeballs were out of consideration because of that status? It surely hurt, but the characters we ended up getting were not characters we would've ever expected to be ATs in the first place except maybe Bayonetta (veterans, major 3rd-party characters, characters that didn't exist when ATs were being chosen). It would be stronger precedent if we saw Isaac as DLC, for example, because he was removed as an AT for Smash 4. Or if we saw Tails added, who is someone that could've made sense as a Sonic AT, etc.

The last thing I'd mention is whether Sakurai wants to surprise us. We see with Piranha Plant, he clearly does. But we've also seen some obvious telegraphing of certain characters - the removal of Isabelle as an AT, removal of the Dark Samus and Chrom palettes from Samus and Ike, and Ken seemed highly likely even before the leaks, with the Echo concept in general and after seeing Richter. So the question is whether they would want to mislead a bit by not keeping a DLC character out of the extra content. I'm not sure, and after seeing Ridley's costumes change from the initial demo, you might think that keeping those palettes for Samus and Ike would've been an easy way to keep Dark Samus and Chrom under wraps...

Echoes
No more Echoes means that a fair number of characters that either only really make sense as Echoes (Funky/Chunky/Kiddy Kong, Akuma, Raichu, Toon Zelda) because they originate as basically clones/different versions of the same character in their games are damaged. Ones that could easily fit as Echoes (Dixie, Shadow, Black Shadow), have one avenue to inclusion cut off and now need to be justified as full newcomers. Some have better cases than others.

Assist Trophies/Pokeballs: 90%
We have strong precedent that ATs have made the jump... but only in sequels, not in the same game. And logically, it makes sense. ATs require more changes than any of the other things, and making them simply not appear when that character is in play would seem suboptimal if you're proud of the work that went into them. But we only have Smash 4 as precedent, and we know that ATs include newcomer material (Little Mac, Isabelle, Dark Samus). Our sample size is very small and considering this 100% is being overconfident. But I'd consider Isaac and Shadow to be on life support (Shadow especially, since we know there will be no more Echoes).

Mii Costumes: 30%
We've seen playable characters get Mii Costumes, both base and DLC costumes. So this seems less of an issue. But we've also seen Mii Costumes used as a consolation prize (K Rool, Isabelle, Inkling, Chrom) for characters that ended up playable... but not in Smash 4. And ones that didn't make it but we know are requested (Geno, Knuckles, Zero). But we don't even know much about the available costumes yet, and we'll have a better idea of what to think of them when the game releases. The only big one we've seen so far (Rex) was accompanied by statements that heavily imply he has no chance. But they requires the least change. No need to change conditions for AT appearances or wasting the work on the AT, no worries about playable characters being equippable, etc.

Background characters: 70%
Captain Toad, if he's DLC, was in the plan when New Donk City was being designed. The main reason to put him in there is to mislead, in the case that it's a a Toon Link Spirit Train type situation. But it's very bad news for him. But not 100%.

Characters added to Final Smashes: 80%
I don't see why Fiora, Proto Man or Bass would've been added to Shulk's and Mega Man's Final Smash if they were intending to make them playable. And notably, they withheld Robin's Final Smash until after Chrom was announced. Ness and Lucas's companions are less disconfirmed by this, perhaps, but they also had very little chance in the first place.

Spirits: 50%
For now. After release, we'll have a much stronger basis to see how playable characters are treated compared to non-playable. While we know that trophies have been later made playable, Spirits have implications for gameplay and the modes associated with Spirits. If they needed to change the Dixie spirit, for example, it would be much less of a big deal than changes to ATs. Particularly since versions of playable characters are equippable. So... Dixie's Spirit could simply have its name and/or design change and leave everything else the same. (For example, her spirit could be renamed to Classic Dixie or whatever.)

The people declaring this over when we still don't know a lot AND we have no precedent AND we know that a Spirit becoming playable wouldn't require a ton of changes... are being premature. But I do think it's a bad sign.

 

[Hollywoodrok12]

Melmetal:

Chance: 5%. Melmetal sits in a similar position as Magearna. They're both mythical pokemon used to tease the next generation of Pokemon. After that, Magearna was forgotten in favor of other picks like Tapu Koko, Mimikyu, Lycanroc, Decidueye and of course, Incineroar. Nintendo is likely to know that, in terms of appeal, Melmetal won't last as long as Pokemon like the starters or legendaries would, and they're more likely to pick someone that will have a lot of appeal around the time of the new game's release. Because of this, I think Melmetal is gonna have to live with a 5%.

Want: ~40%. While I don't necessarily care for Melmetal, as a Pokemon, it seems like it wouldn't be a bad choice among Pokemon to pick, but we don't know what the other candidates are/will be. Even then, it'd just be one of the 5 DLC slots wasted to a promotional character, so I'm going with an approximation of 40%, since there are possibly worse picks, but we don't know anything about Gen 8.

Edelgard: 5%. While the protagonist of FE3H sits safely at a 95%, Edelgard is not the protagonist. Byleth is. While she looks to be playing a major role (comparable to that of Xander and Ryoma in Fates), Edelgard is unlikely, since they would have to reserve not one, but two (potentially 4, if you count Claude(?) and Dimitri(?)) of the 5 slots for FE reps, which I don't see them doing, even with the oversaturation of FE reps.

Nomination: Dragalia Lost rep x5