Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[ShinyRegice]

Black Knight chances: 12%
He's yet another Fire Emblem character, but there are some positive points in his favor. Most notably he's the most recognizable villain of the series, and is already considered as a counterpart to Ike in his games. He also got a Mii costume as Smash 4 DLC. However he has some problems design-wise, as the armor would maybe cause animation headaches in order to prevent obvious and ugly clipping, not to mention it seems like Echoes must have the same base physics as the originals and giving him the same weight as Ike might not feel right considering this huge armor. If those problems aren't worked out then he might have a good chance of being a boss instead.

Black Knight want: 40%
While he's yet another Fire Emblem character, being a memorable antagonist of the first FE game I played (Radiant Dawn) is a positive. However I'm worried it can't really work as I said above, and a boss status seems more appropriate to me.

Skull Kid chances: 30%
I remember last time we rated him I gave him a low score because "Majora's Mask is not a current game" and you know what I think of that now? It's not a good argument at all. As I already said if a character's popularity is timeless then what we called "relevance" in Smash 4 days can become a non-factor, especially with the current track record of Smash Ultimate newcomers, and Skull Kid has such popularity on his side. His main game is already one of the most popular in the series, and the Majora's Mask item itself is very iconic of the Zelda series, not to mention as soon as Ocarina of Time got a 3DS port there was a lot of demand for a MM3D. He doesn't get a very high score however because specific Smash demand for him doesn't seem to have been very vocal, but at the same time there has been quite a lot of demand for any TLoZ newcomer and in the process of choosing one Sakurai may be aware of Skull Kid's popularity in the Zelda fandom and end up choosing him as a newcomer for that reason.

Also the Moon Assist Trophy begs the question of Skull Kid's role in this game, because he had the same status in Smash 4. It guarantees MM gets AT representation regardless of whether Skull Kid is also one, and may be the result of filling that niche after a possible planned promotion to playable for Skull Kid. However, it's also obvious Final Smash material for Skull Kid... but I don't think it really plays against him for two reasons: Riki is both an Assist Trophy and one of the characters who appear in Shulk's Final Smash, so it could be the same for the Moon (although it would probably mean Skull Kid's FS would be forced to go cinematic), and he also has other Final Smash material in the form of Majora's forms from the final boss battle of MM. Overall I think the Moon AT slightly raises his chances.

Skull Kid want: 65%
Last time I was like "not really excited but could be cool I guess", however since he started being more popular as a choice for Smash recently I'm now particularly interested. He's an iconic and popular character from the Zelda series and in particular from one of the most memorable games of the series. And after thinking about it he has some interesting moveset potential which is quite a feat for a character you barely fight at all in the game he stars in: using gravity to make opponents above him get meteor smashed, using wood puppets to attack and protect himself from coming projectiles, poisoning the ground below him as a reference to how he pollutes the Deku forest's water, and even transforming his opponents into Dekus to make them temporarily highly vulnerable, plus his cruel prankster personality would give him a unique profile as a smasher. Not to mention his Assist Trophy appearance in Smash 4 was lame because it was just an annoyance (even though it admittedly fits Skull Kid well) and seeing him in a much better role would be awesome. I also hope he could come with a Clock Town remix for his trailer, as it's one of my favourite video game musics.

Nominating:
New item: Beast Ball x5

 

[Delzethin]

I've been seeing misinformation making the rounds regarding one of the characters being discussed today. So to clear things up:

The Black Knight has never been in the background of Castle Siege. It has always been a generic enemy General. No one was "removed" from the background in Ultimate's remade version.

Seriously, you can see for yourselves on the wiki! Remember to cross-reference things you hear, instead of assuming they must be true!

 

[Fell God]

I've been seeing misinformation making the rounds regarding one of the characters being discussed today. So to clear things up:

The Black Knight has never been in the background of Castle Siege. It has always been a generic enemy General. No one was "removed" from the background in Ultimate's remade version.

Seriously, you can see for yourselves on the wiki! Remember to cross-reference things you hear, instead of assuming they must be true!

It was a knight heavily inspired by him though, Black Knight's coloration is relatively rare among generic enemies, which essentially always wear red, as the knight now does. No, he clearly never was supposed to be Black Knight, but comparing him with our general shows more than a few similarities. Honestly it doesn't tip the scales for him one way or the other in my eyes since that knight wasn't exactly easy to spot in the first place, but it's interesting nonetheless that they changed his color.

 

[Delzethin]

It was a knight heavily inspired by him though, Black Knight's coloration is relatively rare among generic enemies, which essentially always wear red, as the knight now does. No, he clearly never was supposed to be Black Knight, but comparing him with our general shows more than a few similarities. Honestly it doesn't tip the scales for him one way or the other in my eyes since that knight wasn't exactly easy to spot in the first place, but it's interesting nonetheless that they changed his color.

It's actually not his colors, though. The background knight has a dark red and gold palette that closer resembles Begnion soldiers than anything. This was the case even in Brawl:

As you can see, the claim that the Black Knight was removed from the background as apparent "proof" toward him being playable is based on false information that has spread because we have a problem of not doublechecking these things. While this doesn't automatically ruin his chances, it also doesn't raise them in ways it's been assumed to. Castle Siege's background is a red herring.

 

[Fell God]

It's actually not his colors, though. The background knight has a dark red and gold palette that closer resembles Begnion soldiers than anything. This was the case even in Brawl:

As you can see, the claim that the Black Knight was removed from the background as apparent "proof" toward him being playable is based on false information that has spread because we have a problem of not doublechecking these things. While this doesn't automatically ruin his chances, it also doesn't raise them in ways it's been assumed to. Castle Siege's background is a red herring.

Sure looks like Black Knight's weird brand of black to me, the gold trim as opposed to white is pretty obvious but the helmet shape is quite similar, apart from being more weird looking. Breastplate also has some similarities.

See his armor has that weird lighting effect too

 

[0007]

Black Knight

Chance: 20%
While he did get a Mii costume, I honestly don't think we're getting another FE character in the base game. He's also from one of the worst selling games in the FE franchise and not all that relevant anymore, plus I don't think many requested him. However, he would be relatively easy to add and would be a villain addition. I don't think that the "Heroes vs Villains" theme is as strong as some people say, it just happens that a lot of the fan requested characters not yet added to Smash are villainous.

Want- 45%
I like Ike's playstyle but the only thing I really like about Black Knight is his amazing design. He's rather generic otherwise, though I've never played Path of Radiance.

Skull Kid
Chance- 45%
Something's weird about his chances, fittingly enough. I think people are assuming that Impa would be an Echo of Sheik, when there's not that much evidence for that. It could go either way. Personally, I don't really know if Impa will be in the game at all, since I don't think she was requested very much.

He's definitely not an AT anymore, but that's all I can difinitively say. He's either a boss, playable, or cut entirely like Isaac was after Brawl. I feel like it wouldn't really make sense from a gameplay perspective to make him a boss but what worries me is that Skull Kid is in a middle ground of popularity. Sakurai knows he's popular, but since his AT in 4 likely lowered votes in the Ballot he might think he still doesn't deserve to be a fighter-- and so he'd "upgrade" him from AT to boss. That's honestly the worst case scenario because if Skull Kid wasn't in the games at all he could be DLC...

There are a lot of hints that, when taken together, make him "seem" like a lock. The disclaimer on the Pic of the Day reveal back in Smash 4. The Moon assist. The Mask Mii Costume. The furniture. His popularity. However, some of these facts might be explained away. Skull Kid was the first AT revealed iirc, so it's possible Sakurai put that disclaimer so people didn't think fighters got revealed on Miiverse. Ashley got a Mii costume and still didn't get in. Skull Kid was semi popular since Brawl and is probably the most popular first party character right now, but that likely didn't translate into Ballot votes. Ironically when you take into account the barrel and ladder in the E3 presentation background the furniture is one of the strongest pieces of information in his favor. Making Skull Kid a boss would just be a Sakurai thing to do. He's a genius but it wouldn't be a Sakurai game if he didn't do one weird, out of touch thing. I'm the opposite of cautiously optimistic. I know that he has a pretty good chance but I never get exactly what I want every Smash game. I'm reluctantly pessimistic.

Want: 200%

Always been a dream of mine. The worst thing about Project M development stopping is that we never got to see Skull Kid. He'd be a great character as a villain, trickster, new Zelda rep. And what a unique and iconic design...

 

[Arcanir]

Black Knight

Chance: 37%
He's a bit of an anomaly. With the evidence, the big thing about him is that there are three things constantly brought up for him: the Mii costume, the castle siege knight, and ike's costume, and of them two of the three is controversial.

To start with his most positive point, the Mii Costume is an interesting instance as he was released in the same pack as King K. Rool and Chrom, two characters stated to be highly popular in the ballot, with characters like Lloyd also supporting that point due to being a popular request among hardcore fans. This hints that he was a popular request in the ballot, and which is supported by his CYL placements, which had both forms in the 50s and combined place him in the 20s. Additionally, like K. Rool he seems to use new assets from his PoR/RD models, which does help lend to the possibility that he is in the game in some capacity.

The second, and by far the most controversial, is the Castle Siege knight. To start, it should be noted that he is not the Black Knight as he has a few different colors on his design that are not present on the iconic character, so him being changed was not the removal of the Black Knight. However, while that is true, it also should be noted that the character does share cues with the Black Knight present in few-to-no other Generals across the franchise. The predominant black color scheme, the square shaped helmet (completely unique to him from what I've seen), the red Cape and the like are traits that do invoke the image of the Black Knight and as a result do give him more then a passing resemblance to him shared with no other. Thus, since the knight in the back had his similarities to the BK completely stripped from him, it does call into question why, and considering Sakurai has gone out of his way to change stage backgrounds when it comes to playable characters (ex. King Dedede in the Dreamland stage) that can be indicative of his playability.

The final point is Ike's costume. This is also a controversial one as the costume hasn't been removed unlike Dark Samus and Chrom, calling into question the plausibility of him being playable. However, the costume has also been tweaked with the bandana around the neck, the strips and a couple other things being changed, which could imply that they're trying to mute the similarities between the characters. This in conjunction with Pit's Dark Pit costume having his similarities played up could very well keep him in the running, though it still should be noted as an oddity when compared to the other Ultimate Echoes so far.

All in all, I'd say he's below characters like Ken or Isabelle when it comes to him possibly being an Echo. He's very popular among the FE fanbase and (arguably) the ballot itself, he got a Mii Costume, it would make sense for him to Echo off of Ike, and there is some evidence that can support his inclusion. However, unlike the aforementioned two he is just short of the amount of potential evidence that they have and their evidence isn't nearly as hotly debated. Ultimately, I could see it go either way for him and what happens depends on what Sakurai's plan is for the character.

Want: 85%
As a villain, he's by far one of FE's most memorable and does have a unique presence to him that I think would allow him to stand out from the cast. I also have very fond memories of him from RD, so I would enjoy having him as a playable character in the game.

Skull Kid

Chance: 55%
Even ignoring Loz I feel there is enough circumstantial evidence to consider him. The Moon curiously has popped up as an AT with his currently MIA, he's always has had a notable underground support base, and the MM remake did come out the same year as the ballot, likely raising awareness for both fans and Sakurai. The only thing I could see going against him is that Zelda typically doesn't get characters outside of the main trio and the evidence potentially amounting to nothing and he remains an AT like Ashley, but that trend could very easily be broken.

Want: 65%
While not my favorite Zelda character, I do have an attachment to MM and would enjoy seeing it get more love in the game.

Nomination: Silvally x5

 

[Icedragonadam]

Black Knight

Chance: 50%
Want: 50%

He actually seems very plausible.

1. He had a mii costume released alongside Chrom and King K. Rool
2. Chrom is an echo Roy rather than Ike
3. The Knight got changed to look nothing alike with the Black Knight

Skull Kid

Chance: 50%
Want:95%

He seems pretty possible. His AT is still missing with the moon being an AT without him, and is the most popular not disconfirmed Zelda rep right now. Although there is that chance of being a boss fight as well as the evidence points towards that as well.

Nominate Concept: More Than 5 Unique Newcomers x5

 

[NintenRob]

I feel like I should point out Chrom makes most sense as a Roy echo.


Chrom and Lucina are suppose to have similar fighting styles

Lucina is an echo of Marth

Roy is a clone of Marth

Makes sense to me Chrom would be an echo of Roy in order to be similar to Lucina

 

[VexTheHex]

Black Knight
Chance - 10%
Pretty sure he's coming in as a Boss. Just makes sense to me that's where he'll land in the end like Dracula and Rathalos. It'd be a bit strange to see that bulky armor moving in the same fashion as Ike does.
Want - 50%
Ike's games were the only Fire Emblem games I ever played. So I wouldn't mind seeing him show up, but I honestly don't know if I like the idea of him being an echo while feeling other characters deserve to be in as unique over him by quite a number.

Skull Kid
Chance - 55%
Things seem to be going quite in favor for him. However, I could also see him coming out as a boss as well. But unlike Black Knight, I lean more towards playable with a chance of being a boss instead.
Want - 75%
No personal connection to him. However I'd love to see some LoZ reps that aren't Zelda or Link. And I think his mask is pretty cool looking and overall has potential.


Noms 5x Gardevoir

 

[Artix]

Black Knight

Chance: 25%
Seems like people really wanted him in Smash Ultimate ever since Echo Fighters is a thing. However, if we're getting one more Fire Emblem character, I think it's either Celica or one of the main characters of Three Houses (probably Edelgard) due to their relevancy. But he could get in as a boss in 'Spirits' mode or whatever Story Mode is called.

Want: 10%
I'm not really that interested about him. But like I said, he could easily get in as a boss of sort due to his appearance.

Skull Kid

Chance: 60%
Ever since the Moon showed up as an Assist Trophy, many people assumed that Skull Kid might get in Smash Ultimate. And I can see why, he's such an iconic character of the Zelda franchise and he's been on top of every Smash Ultimate polls I've seen. However, I'm still iffy about the Zelda series getting a newcomer in this game, plus he has competition with Impa over the spot. But, I'm very confident he might get in due to many people really wanting him.

Want: 95%
Skull Kid is one of my favorite characters of the Zelda series and it would be interesting to see him in Smash. He may not be one of my most wanted characters, but having him in the game would definitely make me happy.

Nominations:
Jin Kazama x5

 

[Deleted member]

Black Knight
Chance: 40%
Want: 0%

I agree that this Mii Costume theory is viable and might be a clue to potential newcomers. However I don't feel it'll be the case for the Black Knight, as he was barely requested back then.
As for my want score, 's inclusion practically killed any form of enthusiasm I have on the idea of another FE newcomer, unless they're AT material, which ironically FE lacks badly of.


Skull Kid
Chance: 65%
Want: 0%

With the time I came to the conclusion that Skull Kid is basically Mario's , as to know one of the few noticeable recurring characters that isn't part of the Triforce wielders.
However, as with any potential Zelda newcomer:

[...] I prefer to see under-repped series like Donkey Kong and rising ones like Xenoblade getting newcomers first rather than a series which has been obscenely over-milked those last 7 years outside of Smash.
And having , , and updated design-wise and moveset-wise and returning is more than enough already.

Noms:
Metroidvania-like adventure mode x5

Banjo-Kazooie prediction: 7.52%
Geno prediction: 31.24%

 

[MasterOfKnees]

Oh boy, what a day:

Black Knight:

Chance: 25% - I'm not super convinced he's happening, although the Mii Costume, Chrom being Roy's echo fighter instead of Ike's, and the look-a-like general on Castle Siege being changed are all points in his favor (and yes, the latter is still a point in his favor, even if it was never supposed to be him its change could be to avoid confusion), we're also in a situation where Fire Emblem has already received an echo, Black Knight hasn't been relevant for a long time (which is important with FE and when you didn't have a strong ballot presence), and he would require the most drastic amount of changes out of any echo so far.

I can't see them doing Black Knight without giving him a new Up-B (a teleport of some kind), making him significantly taller than Ike, and also have him be one of the heaviest characters in the game, and to our knowledge not a single echo has had weight changes so far, and certainly none of them have had such a wildly different frame from their original counterpart as he'd have. He might also require more or less a completely new set of animations as his armor would be a clipping nightmare if they just copy-pasted Ike's animations to him, and it's also worth mentioning that he always fights with only one hand and doesn't punch or kick either.

Basically he'd really push the limits of what an echo fighter is, much more so than any of the ones that are in or are also considered likely. Because of this I don't think I can ever consider him a safe pick.

Want: 100% - Path of Radiance is at the very least in my top 10 games and might even push top 5, it's by far the best FE game I've played, and Black Knight's rivalry with Ike was a very big part of that. I already love Ike's moveset aswell, it's why I even began playing FE to begin with, so I have no doubt I'd love to play Black Knight aswell. I'm usually on the "FE is overrepped like mad, and it's a shame that all of its characters are sword users" train, but for Black Knight I'm willing to be a dirty hypocrite, because he's just that great of a villain, and I'm happy that he even has a chance at all.

Skull Kid:

Chance: 50% - I am not quite as confident about his chances as a lot of other fans are, because the only thing I see as a legitimate hint towards him is the Moon AT, which to me is a clear indication that he's at least no longer an AT, and his most likely role otherwise is of course as a playable character. That's also a pretty strong point for him, but I'm not buying either Loz18 or the chairs theory, and I don't even think the Mii Costume is a huge point in his favor as Majora's Mask is so iconic that it was always going to be one, it's not nearly as suspicious as K. Rool or Black Knight's costumes which were made from new assets and weren't exactly logical choices.

He's a 50/50 for me, which is a hell of a lot better than I thought I'd ever give him for this game, last time we rated him I think I only gave him 15%, so still a huge improvement.

Want: 100% - He was my second or third most wanted going into this game, and with both Ridley and K. Rool now confirmed he stands alone as my most wanted now, I'm really excited that he's in a situation where it looks like he could make it. Majora's Mask is my favorite Zelda game, and Skull Kid's presence played a big part in that, I just love that type of wicked and twisted villain who has attained powers far beyond what he's capable of handling. His powers could also translate into an incredibly unique moveset as we still don't have a proper dark magic user yet, and as far as one-off Zelda villains go he's by far the most iconic, there are only things for me to love about his potential inclusion.

I usually don't hand out 100% wants like this, that used to be reserved for Ridley, but with him in I feel a bit more relaxed about these sort of things. These are two of my at least top 3 most wanted, coincidentally just being rated on the same day, and with Porky being rated previously chances are I'm not going to be giving a 100% want score again.

 

[skylanders fan]

Black Knight
Chance
wow didn't know that he was this popular. Mii costume and not being in the FE stage will not be in my rating as they are not confimation (and him not being in the stage to begin with) my thing is with echo fighters I don't know if we will get 3 echo fighters for one series
30%

want
meh he is cool but want others more
60%

Skull Kid
chance
I feel like Skull Kid is the most likely non echo newcomer. Not only was he popular but also a villian and a missing assit trophy with a replacment.
90%

want
My most wanted newcomer nwo I just see him haveing a fun moveset that would be awesome to see in smash
100%

nominating
rick coo and kine x5

 

[BlueMagician]

Black Knight

Chance: 15%
Most of the Mii Fighter costumes were made from other existing models, but the Black Knight didn't have a modern model for them to use. On the other hand, it's not like it's a particularly complicated model to update. Now, I do believe the Castle Siege general was meant to look like Black Knight to some extent, and if they weren't using him for some reason they could have just repurposed the just-created Mii Fighter assests instead of making a completely new helmet. However, there's more than just fighter roles available.

Want: 20%
He's fine, but I'm not exactly hurting to see him as a playable character, either. I have other FE people I'd want to see, echo or original.


Skull Kid

Chance: 20%
From what I've seen I don't see much reason to believe he's a playable fighter. The Moon trophy has been argued both for and against him, and just to play with the idea it could've been that the Moon was meant to be in Smash 4 all along, who knows. And he could be a non-fighter again. It's hard to comment on his ballot results.

Want: 5%
Majora's Mask does nothing to endear me to Skull Kid. To me, the rest of the MM cast deserves more praise.


Comment on both: I don't buy into the 'villains focus' narrative that the Western Smash community has built.


Nominations:
Terry Bogard x 5

 

[DivineWrath45]

Black Knight

Chance: 30%
With the confirmation of Chrom in Ultimate, who was a Mii costume back in Smash 4, I'd say that Black Knight might have a chance since he also has a Mii costume in Smash 4. However, with a great influx of Fire Emblem characters in the game, I don't think they would add yet another sword fighter in the base game, even if he's an Echo Fighter. Still, I could see him being added as a boss or something in Story Mode.

Want: 85%
I would absolutely love to have Black Knight in the game, be it as a playable character or as a boss. He's one of my favorite character in Fire Emblem and he's part of my Armor Emblem team in Heroes, which I always use as my defense team in the Arena.

Skull Kid

Chance: 70%
I'm pretty sure Skull Kid is more likely to get in Smash Ultimate. For one, he's very popular and has been requested by many fans ever since he appeared in Smash 4. In addition to that, the Moon Assist Trophy pretty much confirmed that Skull Kid has a chance of getting in as a playable character.

Want: 20%
Eh, I'm not that interested about Skull Kid and I don't really care whether if he's going to be a playable character or not. But with his decent popularity and the Moon Assist Trophy being added without him, I'd say he's more likely to get in Smash.

Nominations:
Jin Kazama x5

 

[CaptainAmerica]

The Ebony Warrior

Chance: 30%
Want: 10%

I feel like Black Knight is the perfect storm of fantheories coming together more than any real evidence. "He got a Mii costume, and so did Chrom!" Yes, and so did Gil, Jacky, Akira... are they all super likely now? Not to mention Ashley, Viridi, Knuckles... "We got Ridley, dark Samus, and K.Rool, so they're biasing to villains!" Yes, I remember all of those memorable fights against Daisy, Inkling, Simon, Richter, and Chrom. Epic villains they were too. "Sakurai has a Fire Emblem bias!" ...which he acknowledged back in Sm4sh DLC with Corrin, and then added Chrom on top of that.

I don't think that this is one of the more likely characters, and Fire Emblem does not need more echoes at this point.

----

You know, I haven't looked at my first rating for him in a while...

Majora’s Mask (because let’s face it - that’s what people want)

Chance: 10%
Want: 50%

A recurring Zelda character...who was important for one piece of heart in all of Ocarina, and looked completely different in Twilight Princess. Everyone who wants him wants him solely because of Majora’s Mask, so he’s for all intents and purposes a one-off from that game.

MM was a great game, but gets flack just since it followed what is still considered one of the best games of all time. Still, he’d originally gotten passed over in Hyrule Warriors for Tingle, of all people, which really set Americans off.

Zelda has been criminally underrepresented in Smash. Yes, it’s got a fair amount of content, but based on importace to Nintendo, Zelda should be just below Pokémon and Mario, not Kirby and Kid Icarus (and Fire Emblem). It’s had basically the same representation since Melee: 5 characters, two of which are semi clones, and a lot of cases where the moves were cherry picked to fit a style and not the other way around. Granted, I don’t want too many changes to Link or Zelda for the next installment, but the Dorf or Tink could probably get a few moves more important to their respective games (and use their accessories for more than a random taunt)

I’d prefer Urbosa, Midna, or Revali for a new Zelda character, but a final smash involving a Moon Landing would be amazing.

Well, this had gone through some changes.

I'm not going to deny that Skull Kid's gotten a bandwagon lately, and I don't want to think about any ridiculous furniture theory, but there are some things that need to be said that boost his chances even without chairs or potential leaker suggestions.
1. The Moon assist trophy is done completely without Skull Kid, which is bizarre in the first place. It would certainly be easy enough (and canon) to have has him come out of the trophy and then call the moon down.
2. The Zelda franchise doesn't have an obvious 'next character,' so there could be a Cloud scenario here - many people want a Zelda character, so Sakurai just chooses one who's decently popular to fill that void. With Midna and Ghirahim already confirmed as assists and the Champions potentially too new, it's really down to Impa, Skull Kid, and Tingle for that. And Impa would be a clone (which the Zelda cast already has their fill of) and Tingle has a massive hatebase, so Skull Kid ends up as a decent choice.
3. Majora's Mask is still memetic - try to find any event that is not preceeded by someone posting "Dawn of the final day" at the 24 hours prior mark. Youtube does that by default on livestreams. Plus, MM3d came out right before the ballot.

With all of this considered, I'd have to boost his chances to about 45%.

Now I've jumped onto the Skull Kid train. He's still not my most wanted Zelda character (I'd love Urboda or Midna Twili Midna as a Zelda echo would work as well), but the #3 slot isn't bad. And I did enjoy Majora's Mask. Plus, he's the only character in my top 5 who has somewhat of a chance...

I just hope this comes with a Fierce Deity final smash for YL (and maybe fix the colors of Link's FD outfit so it's white and not green)

Want: 85%

---

Predictions for 3rd party most wanteds: 42.1%
Nom: Dovahkiin x5

 

[Tew]

Black Knight:

Chance: 20%
Pros:
I don´t think it makes his chances a lot higher or anything but the Castle Siege background change can only be in his favour, even i fit would just end up being nothing, it´s definitely not decreasing his chances by any means.
He is by far the favourite villain (I think the only villain that managed to get into the top 100 in the first FEH Choose your legends poll). So if we get a Fe villain, it basicly can only be him (or maybe Veronica from FEH).
He would fit well as an Echo of Ike, the lore and fighting style fit mostly at least. And that Chrom ended up being an Echo of Roy instead of Ike adds to his chances as well.
Cons:
Even though he ist he favourite villain, he overall didn´t do that amazing in the poll and also is neither relevant nor that popular outside the deeper Fe fandom.
Furthermore I think Sakurai is aware of all the hate against the amount of Fe sword fighters. There are already 7 Fire Emblem characters all with swords and only 2 of them have something else besides their sword. And 2 out of these 7 are Echos. 2 out of a total of 6 Echos. With a third sword Echo there would be 8 sword users, 3 of them being Echos. Would feel weird to me if he puts in 2 new Sword users (even if they are just Echos) and doesn´t include the most popular character (at least according tot he Choose your legends poll) who has been in Smash for a while, Lyn.
And sure he can put in as many Fe chas as he wants, but I doubt be we will get 2+ Fe characters in a game that might have the least Newcomers so far. I still hope/think we´ll get at least 1 Fe Newcomer that isn´t an Echo. Maybe as DLC, but maybe already in the base roster. We still don´t have any axe and lance users, even though the Weapon triangle is one of the biggest aspects of Fe.

Want: 1%
I have nothing against him as a character (though I also don´t like or really care for him), but I don´t want to see another Fe sword fighter before we haven´t gotten at least 1 axe (Hector, Edelgard, Camilla…) or 1 lance user (Fjorm, Ephraim, Azura…).



Skull Kid:

Chance: 65%
Pros:
There are so many clues and hints for his inclusion that have been said in tons of Youtube videos and posts here and speculation threads, the moon AT, Skull Kid AT still MIA, the colour theory, the possible villain theme, the TloZ redesigns, the evil mushroom item, tons of leaks, the weird Smash4 Skull Kid AT announcement back then, the Mii costume, the possible missing TloZ music tracks, we haven´t gotten a TloZ Newcomer in 4, highly requested… (https://twitter.com/cchance25/status/1028770174243987456)
Cons:
But yet I still have a feeling that he won´t become a playable character. None of those hints is particularly strong and all could also hint at him being a boss. At this point I´d say he is likely in the game in some way. Just that him being a boss seems nearly as likely to me.

Want: 100%
One of my all time favourite TloZ characters (after maybe Midna, who is already deconfirmed and Lana, who barely has any chance). He would be a very interesting and unique gimmicky character, exactly the kind of characters I love to play as.



Predictions:
Banjo-Kazooie: 17%
Geno: 44%

Nominations:
Fjorm: 5x

 

[RealPokeFan11]

BLACK KNIGHT
Chance: 35%
Want: 90%
Though I've never really been much of a fire emblem fan myself, a lot of the characters are simple and really fun to play. Black Knight is our first Fire Emblem villain and he would differ from the rest of the cast in game. And seeing him getting suggested made me start wanting him in the game, because he's one of the coolest looking concepts I've seen on Smashboards. The only downside is that he's not super popular, so his chances aren't very high.

Also don't make him an echo of Ike because he deserves his own moveset.

SKULL KID
Chance: 90%
Want: 65%
What a surprise! A Zelda character that isn't Link Zelda or Falcond- um, I mean Ganondorf. That is all that we have right now. 3 links, 2 Zeldas and a Falc- "Ganondorf". Zelda as a series needs variety in their playable roster, and Skull Kid is the best choice. His assist trophy is missing, and he's very popular as of 8/9. He also fits the villain theme that Ultimate is going with.

Predictions:
Banjo & Kazooie: 85%
Geno: 70%

Nominations: Xurkitree x5
GO SUPPORT YA BOI NOW!

 

[AlphaSSB]

Black Knight

Chance: 10% - The whole Castle Siege thing means nothing. The only thing that does is that Sakurai has shown he's willing to use 'Echo' clones to add more Fire Emblem characters, despite him claiming in the past that there was already too many of them.

Want: 0% - No.

Skull Kid

Chance: 40% - Highly requested character who's Assist Trophy is MIA, possibly even replaced with the Moon from Majora's Mask. I'd say it's very possible Skull Kid got promoted to playable, or at least as a boss in the supposed Spirits mode.

Want: 90% - Yes.

Nominations: Deconfirmed Character DLC x5

 

[Barbasol]

Black Knight
Chance: 80%
Want: 90%

There's several obvious pieces of evidence that points towards including Black Knight in Ultimate:
1) Castle Siege Removal - It's clearly Black Knight. There is no other character in the Fire Emblem series that has that shape or colour scheme - even in spite of the gold presence. If you look at General class units in the Tellius era they have different pauldrons and helmets - not even counting the black/red armor cape combo. The Gold coloration can be accounted for the distance in which you see the model - Silver wouldn't stand out as much in that setting.

2) Mii Fighter Costume - This one isn't confirmation, but it helps build a case of awareness of the character. Black Knight is the only other unit aside from Chrom to receive a costume.

3) Echo Potential - There's a lot of discussion in the Black Knight thread about how he would work as an Ike Echo, so I won't repeat them all here - suffice to say - similar build, same trainer, twin swords, rivalry - all of these make for a clear opportunity for Black Knight to share Ike's moves. Along with the fact that we got a fourth Marth clone rather than a second Ike makes a clear case for them saving Black Knight for Ike's echo character.

4) Fire Emblem has no Villain - If you were to poll the community about the most prominent villain in the series, you'd see that Black Knight is by far the most known. He's the top voted Villain in the Fire Emblem Heroes polls, appeared in the live action TV ads for the game, even holds a solid place in the meta, so the community is very aware of him. In the mainline series, he is the only villain to take focus in more than one game. With Ultimate placing a heightened focus on villains - you can bet that Fire Emblem with it's admittedly overrepresentation of villains - needs its own villainous representative. And having an Echo would provide that without the resources of a newcomer.

Skull Kid
Chance: 65%
Want: 90%

Cool that my top two most wanted are on the same day! I think we're probably overestimating Skull Kids chances as a sure-thing. He's routinely left out of other titles and mash-ups like Hyrule Warriors until late in the series - but he's by and large the most likely remaining Zelda rep. Would love to see him.

 

[Waluigi is not getting in]

Black Knight
Chance: 10% - He has almost no evidence in his favor and the one that does exist amounts to... nothing.
Want: 0% - It's just not necessary.

Skull Kid
Chance: 99.5% - There is just too many coincidences and too much evidence in his favor. Not to mention a seriously credible leaker that flew under everyone's radar said he would be the next reveal(not Loz).
Want: 100% - It's ****ing Skull Kid.

 

[PeridotGX]

Dark Night

Chance: 15%. People are far overshooting his chances, I think he's more likely as an AT over anything else. If we get another FE Echo, it'll probably be Celica over :ultrobin.

Want: 10%. I've never played his games, so I'm neutral. But being able to do an 8 Player Smash of all FE characters would melt GameFAQs and be great.

----

Skeleton Child

Chance: 60%. The most likely unique Zelda character, his AT's absence is strange. I see it as a situation, where Zelda as a series did phenomenal but the vote was very split, so they went with the one that did the best.

Want: Abstain. I'm indifferent.

Nominations: Cross Series Echoes x5

 

[Troykv]

Black Knight:

Chance: 30% (Wow; I never thought I would give a score as high as Celica's to a character that is more inconsistent with their relevancy to Smash Ultimate).

Black Knight is a character I'm completely sure he'll have a role in the game; the change in the generic Black Armored Guy to make it even more generic, the change to Ike's color; and the Mii Custome... He'll appear in the game somehow; as a character? as a boss? Maybe appear in other way? Who knows.

Want: 60%

I like Z... I mean Black Knight; he's a cool villain and has powerful presence in the games he appearing; being probably the most recognizable figure of the Tellius Games along with Main Characters Ike and Micaiah.... And he's a villain; and not even the main one in both games.

Skull Kid:

Chance: 50%

Conspirative Theories the character; I guess the memes and his popularity had found a way to help him; he's the only Zelda Old AT that hasn't returned yet; and it seems instead we got the Moon in his place; but the Moon Summoning doesn't show Skull Kid in anyway... So it seems this character has a rol in the game bigger than expected.... So... now the chances are fifty fifty.

Want: 60%

Well; I don't have idea what he would do; but it would be a lot of fun.

____________________________________________

Predictions:

Banjo Kazooie: 34.5% (I expected a lot of overwhelmingly different scores)
Geno: 51.5% (He's actually more likely than not this time)

Nominations:

Gardevoir x5

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Reminder that rule 2 exists for a reason. IF you want your scores to be counted follow it. I said it in the support threads and I am saying it again now. I will be lenient if there is sufficient reasoning for most of the scores but one but one liners and one sentence posts have been popping up more. For example, if you have a good analysis for all but one score I will count it anyway, but avoid short posts please. I won’t remind about it again, failure to comply will lead to your scores being ignored if they do not fit the rule.

 

[Kotor]

Black Knight

Chance: 15%
Want: 80%

I've never touched Ike's games but looking around Black Knight's history, he was trained by Ike's dad, who taught Ike as well. Ike's Ragnell and Black Knight's Alondite are "sibling blades" in their game of origin. His up special would have to be the Warp Powder. It's this thing Black Knight uses to go from one place to another. The localization actually changed the entire context of a scene because of Black Knight's warp powder. I could get powder expiring, but BK's warp powder malfunctioning was a pretty confusing read.

Knowing the context of why he could be Ike's echo, Black Knight's not as weird of a suggestion as Malos becoming Shulk's echo (my issue with that one is more Malos being obviously taller than Shulk). Spoilers shouldn't lock away content so if Black Knight, or rather Zelgius gets an alt costume, I suggest his Marshall armor. From what I understand, Zelgius can only use Alondite when he's wearing the Black Knight armor. If Advent Children Cloud can get a different version of the Buster Sword, Zelgius shouldn't have any issues using a different sword. I'm sort of nominating Black Knight to be added in as boss character. People aren't blindly against that because he's an FE character right?


I'll be double abstaining on Skull Kid. I don't really have much to say about him.

Nominations
Rowlet x5

 

[THE TemporaryFool]

The Black Knight
Chance: I am going to give him a solid 50%. The Black knight has alot going for and against him. For one, there is his apparent apperence on the Castle Siege stage, and that he was supposedly removed from the stage. But as some stated above by others, that wasn’t him. The armor was to different (correct me if I am wrong, but didn’t Sakurai say that was him?). But the things going for him are the fact that this game is bringing on the baddies. He also had a mii costume.
Want: 100% one of the few echo fighters I want. I will buy his Amiibo and name it: “IAMINVINCIBLE” or some other Monty Python reference.

Skull kid
Chance: 75% the Zelda series hasn’t truly gotten any original fighters since melee, (Toon Link is only a pseudo-echo) so Sakurai will likely see the lack of anything new for the series for him. Skull kid’s place on the ballot might have influenced Sakuri in some way. Yes, the moon is an assist trophy, but skull kid can do more

Want: 1% I never played Major’s Mask, so no opinion on the character.

 

[Erimir]

Black Knight

So I guess the idea is for him to be an Ike Echo? I mean, I guess he has a decent argument being one of the most prominent Fire Emblem villains. And Corrin still means the most recent Fire Emblem game has representation, so adding a classic recurring character wouldn't affect relevancy concerns.

But Fire Emblem is still kinda overrepresented. On the other hand, two new Echoes is less overrepresentation than if they added more unique fighters.

But overall I think Fire Emblem having four versions of Marth and two versions of Ike might be considered overkill, so I don't think this is a very likely scenario.

He also isn't among the most requested characters. But he's probably had some steady support over the lifetime of the series since he's the most obvious FE villain to use.

Black Knight chance: 10%
It seems they are adding more villains this time, and Black Knight has had some support for a while. But FE is already overrepresented and already got one Echo fighter. A second one doesn't seem terribly likely. I'm not expecting FE to get any more newcomers this game tbh (although it's possible).
Black Knight want: 30%
Too much Fire Emblem already, but at least he's not another Marth and not a blue-haired sword lord. Being a villain helps a little too.

Skull Kid

The evidence here is overall not too different from before the Smash Direct. The new information is that Skull Kid's AT is still missing in action, and now we see the Moon as an AT. Other than that, we have the same info: We know the game is focused on fanservice and it appears that the ballot is playing a bit of a role in which characters are being added. Skull Kid has done decently on character polls (that one that he won, I basically think was done by bots because the notion he'd come that far out ahead is just ridiculous) and he got a Mii costume likely due to ballot performance.

Now, the deal with the Moon could be that Skull Kid is replaced as an AT because Skull Kid will be playable. One issue here is that the Moon AT seems like it would've been the top candidate for Skull Kid's Final Smash. I suppose Majora's Mask offers some other options for a Final Smash though. But it could also be that Skull Kid won't be an AT, or that he just hasn't been shown yet. TBH I thought his AT wasn't very interesting, so cutting it just because it was lame wouldn't be totally crazy...

The other issue to consider is Zelda representation in general... The main unique competitors for the Zelda series would be Tetra, Impa, Ghirahim, Midna, Yuga, Zant and Tingle (basically disconfirmed). Of those, only Tetra isn't disconfirmed and would be a strong competitor with Skull Kid, while Impa would more likely be an Echo. I didn't mention Vaati since he didn't even get to be playable in Hyrule Warriors, and hasn't had any Smash references (I think he deserves at least those, but I guess Marin and Cuccos get to be playable before Vaati). Echo fighters are of less relevance, but it's possible they just add one or two Echoes for LoZ and call it a day. Impa (Sheik), Toon Zelda (Zelda, obv) and Demise (Ganondorf) are plausible Echoes, and only the first two seem particularly likely, IMO. I suppose Beast/Pig Ganon is something else to consider, even though one form of Beast Ganon is Ganondorf's Final Smash. But the blue pig form we see in the original LoZ, A Link to the Past, A Link Between Worlds and the Oracle games, could be in. He would be kind of big, but a Bowser-like size would be doable... Still, pretty unlikely. Others like Groose, Agitha, Ravio, Happy Mask Salesman, Gorons, Zoras, etc. seem very unlikely.

Going over it like that kinda leads me to the conclusion that Skull Kid is the most likely unique character, although Tetra is also plausible. Impa and Toon Zelda are possible, but as Echoes might not have much bearing on the unique characters that get in. As a somewhat villainous character, Skull Kid would also increase representation there.

Skull Kid chance: 62%
Zelda is way overdue for a newcomer, and I don't think having Toon Link and Young Link really makes up for that. Skull Kid seems the most likely, but not a shoo-in.
Skull Kid want: 60%
I'd be happy for more Zelda representation, but I'd prefer to see Impa (preferably merely a semi-clone of Sheik), Tetra, Midna or Beast Ganon before Skull Kid.

 

[Sid-cada]

Black Knight

Chance - 20% - While somewhat of a fan-favorite, it's hard to say if he really is going in. He got a costume in the last game, and that seems to be consolation prizes for some characters in the ballot. He may have also been removed from a stage, though that is very questionable. He's semi-comonly requested as being the closest we will ever get to a Fire Emblem villain getting in. All of this kinda feels like reaching, though, as he never felt that popular in the first place, and all of the evidence feels overly circumstantial.

Want - 50% - As with most echo fighters, I do not care about their inclusion. I'll let other people have their fun, but I probably just ignore him.


Skull Kid

Chance - 50% - The color of the chairs seems a bit too tinfoil hat-esque for me to take it seriously. I'll start paying attention if/when it starts getting proven, but for now it's just a point with no line connecting the dots for me. That said, his assist trophy is conspicuously absent, and the Moon is making a big appearance, possibly in it's place. He also got a headgear (but why no armor?), though that's go several others who haven't changed. As of now, I'm not entirely convinced he's in, but he's likely enough that it can go either way.

Want - 45% - I understand that he is popular, but I feel he won't do much. I would prefer a Toon character than him, either Tetra or Vaati. I would be slightly miffed that they would get passed over for him, but I guess I can overlook it due to how influential he is, I guess.


Predicitions

Banjo Kazzoie - 27.43% -Very divisive character, this one is.

Geno - 64.34% - People are feeling there is mounting evidence for his inclusion...


Nominatinos

Reimu Hakurei X5

 

[StormC]

Black Knight
Chance: 20%
Want: 0%

The best thing he has going for him is the Mii Costume from Smash 4, but there's no other evidence suggesting he has a real shot. Fire Emblem already got an echo (and now has two in total), so I can't see Black Knight being a priority over characters like Ken, Dixie, Shadow, and Isabelle. The only reason I can really see him getting in is if Sakurai wanted to just throw out more villains for the sake of it, but that's flimsy at best.

FE already got an echo (thankfully one that was highly requested) and Black Knight has nothing to really offer to me besides a cool design. I'd much rather see echoes - and characters in general - from other series. I won't raise hell if he gets in but I just won't really care either.

Skull Kid
Chance: 40%
Want: 50%

The presence of the Moon AT is the main reason I'm rating him this high. It's a very bizarre choice to have if Skull Kid is an AT, and I'm not sure why they would remove Skull Kid's AT for it. I'm not even gonna touch the office room speculation or loz18 business, but it's worth nothing that he was added to Hyrule Warriors at the perfect time for the design document, giving him lots of moveset potential.

In terms of important/classic characters, I don't really feel like Skull Kid quite cuts the mustard; you don't even fight him in Majora's Mask, so you would really be playing as some sort of weird proxy of Majora instead, and the character itself is generic without consistent recurring appearances. That said, I am a huge fan of his game, and Zelda could definitely use a newcomer. I've warmed up to the idea more and more and his very striking design would make him stand out from the cast. I'm sure Sakurai would make him fun to play as.

 

[Oasis_S]

Black Knight
Chance: 20%
Want: 90%

I feel like he's the best choice for a villain for the Fire Emblem series. Having a personal connection to Ike and all, and representing a common boss type within the series. As well, "Black Knight" has a sort of timeless quality to it, and even if he's a great character on his own, his archetype allows him to fit a villainous role against any protagonist. I don't feel there's A LOT in his favor, though more than most any other FE character at this point I suppose. Of course there's the Mii costume, which I feel is evidence of his popularity. I don't think his popularity in general has waned much either, thanks to his appearance in Heroes. People say he could be an Ike Echo, but I don't think that'd work too well. That's just desperation for him to be an "easy addition." He SHOULD be a luigified clone of Ike, that'd be best for him, but to make him work you'd have to go outside the confines of what it means to be an echo. Unable to be an echo, his chances really drop.

He IS one of the characters I personally want the most though. I even bought the Mii costume the other day, lol. I also started playing Path of Radiance just to get a better idea of his character.

Skull Kid
Chance: 25%
Want: 5%

I think people kind of inflate Skull Kid's popularity. Majora's Mask is surely a classic game, and hugely successful. The mask itself is iconic to the series. But I don't think you can attribute all that to Skull Kid. He's a popular pick now for Smash for the same reason Ghirahim was in the previous game, and Midna was for Brawl. He's got a seniority bonus, definitely. It's really only because BOTW didn't have a stand-out character that Skull Kid was able to appear to be next in line for Smash, thanks to the remake. Playing as him doesn't really seem all that interesting either. He doesn't really do much in the game himself. I don't mean to sound hard on the guy, I guess I'm just pretty indifferent to him, lol.

 

[Jomosensual]

Double Abstaining because I don't know Black Knight and don't care if skull kid gets in or not

Nomination: Nathan Drake x5

 

[KingofPhantoms]

Black Knight Chance: Abstain

Want: 70%

Even now, I haven't played a Fire Emblem game, but I have done some research on this particular character in the past. He looks and seems a lot more interesting to me than a grand portion of the cast of almost every FE game, and until I do get some experience playing some FE games, my very low interest in practically any other possible FE newcomers is unlikely to increase or change in any way. Either way, I still think I'd probably vouch for this guy more than most of the others. He's legitimately cool. I wouldn't complain if he joined the battle.

Skull Kid Chance: 65%

He's immensely popular, albeit, perhaps not as much as some of the confirmed newcomers. He seemed like a pretty big fan choice during Brawl's days, though, and it sort of carried over into Smash 4. Along with that, he's oddly not present with the Moon assist trophy, and while I do think him not being as significant to the franchise as the other Zelda characters currently on the roster hurts his odds a bit, having multiple roles helps him back up a little. He's more of a recurring character than a one-shot, though his biggest role is easily that in MM. Skull Kid's in an odd spot, I'll admit, but I think his chances are better than most other Zelda characters, atm.

Want: 85%

I always liked Skull Kid but my desire for the character in Smash didn't really happen until more recently. I'd be very happy with his inclusion. Not as much as I would with Tetra's (I'd lose my mind if she got in), but I'd still enthusiastically welcome his inclusion. And if I got both? I'd be well beyond overjoyed, to say the least. My posts on this site would be clear indications of that for a good while after the reveals.

Banjo & Kazooie prediction: 76%

Geno prediction: 80%

Nominations: Louie x5

 

[Erureido]

Black Knight

Chance: 35%

There are several things going for Black Knight. He's one of Fire Emblem's most iconic villains, being a major villain in both Tellius games and a personal rival to Ike. He's even one of the most popular FE villains as evidenced by his CYL results.

With the news of Echo Fighters, it does open the possibility of having the Black Knight join the Smash roster as a possible Ike echo. He even had a Mii costume in Smash 4, so that could be hinting something.

The main reason I'm not giving him a particularly high chance score is because at the time when Smash Ultimate's roster was decided, he wasn't very well requested for Smash. His Smash popularity has surged quite recently, so I'm not that optimistic he'll be added into the base roster. DLC is a possibility though.

Want: Abstain

I haven't played the Tellius games, though I've been wanting to (hey Nintendo, maybe you could improve your online program and expand the virtual lineup to those Gamecube and Wii games so that we can make the Tellius games more accessible to gamers without having to spend loads of money on the Internet or resort to online ROMs for them), so I can't give this a proper want rating. I've heard a lot about the Black Knight though and wants make him a memorable villain for many, so the possibility of him being in Smash does intrigue me in a good way.

------

Skull Kid

Chance: 15% --> 60%

Admittedly, I don't remember the chance rating I gave to Skull Kid the last time we rated, though I do remember it was definitely on the lower end and not at 60%.

Times have changed since we last rated him, huh. He's now looking to be a lot more likely than he was in the past. His AT status is still noticeably absent. What's more, the Moon Assist Trophy seems to be rather prominent for this coming title. It's like the Moon could be the replacement Majora's Mask AT following Skull Kid's promotion. It also helps that Skull Kid is a popular Zelda character, with the Majora's Mask that it wears being one of the most iconic elements in the Zelda series (said mask even appeared as a Mii helmet in Smash 4).

I can't say he's that likely though. The main issue that he faces is the similar to other Zelda candidates: he's a kind of one-timer kind of deal who was only particularly prominent in one Zelda game (Majora's Mask). Skull Kid character is a reoccurring in the Zelda franchise, having made appearances in Ocarina of Time and Twilight Princess. However, when fans request Skull Kid, it's particularly his Majora's Mask incarnation, the most prominent one, so to me, Skull Kid still feels like a one-timer candidate.

There's even the chance he could be added as a potential boss, assuming this new Adventure Mode will bring back traditional boss fights, but that's something harder to predict.

Want: 0% --> 0%

Like I said last time, I don't have any interest in seeing this character in Smash. I've never cared for Skull Kid, nor have I ever been a fan of him. I also got plenty other Zelda characters I'd rather see over him.

------

Predictions

Banjo-Kazooie (Banjo-Kazooie): 6.14%

No comment.

Geno (Super Mario RPG): 39.52%

No comment.

------

Nominations

Leo (Fire Emblem Fates): x5

 

[colder_than_ice]

Black Knight
Chance: 10% - I think many are looking way to far into the castle siege argument. The background in Castle Siege recieved a massive overhaul. The statue at the far back that vaguely resembled Black Knight was recoloured gold which was the same fate as every other statue in the background. Even if they left the background unchanged, I honestly don’t know why they’d remove the statue even if Black Knight was playable. There’s no reason why a playable Black Knight can’t coexist alongside a barely visible immobile statue that at best may have been inspired by him.
Black Knight’s best bet is becoming an echo for a franchise that already has a very high concentration of clones/echoes.
Want: 10%

Skull Kid
Chance: 40% - I now actually consider him one of the most likely newcomers and I’ll fully admit that I used to believe he had no chance. He’s immensely popular, winning one of the most widely voted on fan polls. And the inclusion of a Moon AT may be an indication that his AT was removed.
Want: 70% - After opening my mind to the idea, I believe he could be an exciting addition.

Nominations: Edelgard x5

 

[UserKev]

Black Knight

Chance: At about 20%

I don't know anything about the character other than him being a villain, having yet to play Fire Emblem. I hear he has personality and can function as an easy echo of Ike. With the supposed antagonists theme displayed in Smash Ultimate, I feel as if Sakurai is noticing the character.

Want: 30%. Hate to say. He just doesn't look interesting to me and I feel like he's by the point of too many villains. I'm also not found of anymore echoes beyond Dark Samus if he isn't unique. He even seem to would play uncomfortably heavy, plus.

Skull Kid, my dude.

Chance: 50% tho. Haha

Skull Kid is pretty much my final first party Nintendo want since Mimikyu isn't happening. As what's been stated, he has odds noticeably in his favor, already being a veteran fan request. And with Skull Kid being suddenly considered to have a bandwagon, it just boosts how realized he really is.

Want: 50%

He's my most wanted but I gotta rate 50/50. Skull Kid is popular but as Ashley's supporter stated to me, Skull Kid could just as easily be de-confirmed. I mean, it does seem to good to be true with already having Ridley and K. Rool. I can easily see Sakurai wanting to return focus to the heroes now.

Nominations: Cranky Kong x5

 

[Nemuresu]

Black Knight:
Chance: 20%-I mean, sure, he was popular enough to guarantee a Mii costume in the last game, and he's nowhere to be found in Castle Siege, but that's really about it. He could as well, be a boss in the same vein as Dracula.
Want: 10%-The only interesting thing I find about the character is his design, and even then, I can live without any medieval knight-looking character. In my opinion, Fire Emblem should be done with playable characters after Chrom because of how controversial they are, even if they're clones.

Skull Kid:
Chance: 80%-Ignoring loz18's leak regarding him, I do think that he has a high chance, not just because of the AT's absence, but also because of Sakurai's statement when choosing characters for Ultimate:

I referred to the Smash Ballot when selecting characters this time, and King K. Rool from the Donkey Kong series was one who received a ton of votes.

And yes. I do think that Skull Kid fared well in the Ballot. Plus, if there's any solid memory I have from old pre-Brawl speculation, is that he was definitely a popular choice.
Want: 90%-I love Majora's Mask. Skull Kid would be probably the most unique Zelda newcomer that we could see with all the magic stuff he's got.

 

[ProfPeanut]

Nominations
Guzma x5

 

[Smasher 101]

Black Knight

Chance: 15%

I don't expect another Fire Emblem character, but this is one of the more possible choices left. I'm in the camp that doesn't think Castle Siege means much of anything though. The Mii costume could be a plus, but there's other contenders with that too. As far as echoes go I feel there's plenty of more notable and/or popular characters that I'd see as more likely, and I don't think he can get in another way. I could be underestimating him but I'm not really seeing it.

Want: 35%

Not opposed to more Fire Emblem content, but there are others I'd rather have personally. I'm not extremely against the idea though.

Skull Kid

Chance: 60%

Personally believe the Moon showing up means that Skull Kid is most likely not an assist trophy anymore, I don't think they'd both be there. I think right now I'm leaning towards him being playable. I think a lot of people wanted a Zelda newcomer and Skull Kid could very well be the most popular choice. Perhaps the remake's timing may have also helped after all. The reason I'm not rating him higher is because he could be a boss instead, which admittedly would make sense.

Want: 50%

Basically indifferent at this point. Happy for the fans if he gets in and he does make sense, but a new Zelda character isn't as important to me as it is to others and Majora's Mask isn't actually a favorite of mine. Perhaps his reveal trailer could fully win me over.

Nominations: Gardevoir x5

 

[Opossum]

Reinhardt trophy x5