Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[Parallel_Falchion]

Abstaining. I tried Monster Hunter Ultimate on 3DS and couldn't get into it.

Nominate Style Savvy character x5

 

[BluePikmin11]

Monster Hunter has not been a globally successful franchise until the World entry came this year. I cannot see a MH character happening because there had not been a notably successful entry in the West prior to the project plan in 2015. If any Capcom character got in, it would most definitely be a fighter from Resident Evil. Third-party characters whose franchise popularity only lingers in Japan like Dragon Quest & Yo-kai Watch I feel will not be chosen for Ultimate.

I would like bring this statement Sakurai said about globally-recognized franchises:

"—Final Fantasy VII (FFVII below) has never been released on a Nintendo console, so how did Cloud end up appearing in Smash?

Sakurai: Final Fantasy (FF below) is one of the few uniquely Japanese game series revered by players around the world. I think fans across the globe have hoped a character from one of those series would appear in Smash, so it was only a matter of time. At the same time, there are only so many big-name titles we can work with at this point—mainly because we’ve covered most of those bases. Aside from the major globally-recognized franchises already featured in Smash, there really aren’t that many left."

Perhaps when DLC comes, a Monster Hunter character will be of serious consideration, considering the success of World will be a beneficial factor towards the character's inclusion. The chances of an MH character being in the base game are very slim in my opinion.

------

x5 Hanafuda character

 

[Indefinite Minimum]

Monster Hunter

Chance: 5%
What would the rep even be? You make your own character in those games.

Want: 0%
I don't like Monster Hunter.

Nominations:
Dragonitex5

 

[Mrs.Milky]

Monster Hunter

Chance:Abstain

Want: 0% yeah I'm not big on the series and if I wanted another Capcom rep(which I do), I would choose zero

Nominations:
Zero x5

 

[ShinyRegice]

Monster Hunter character chances: 4.5%
Keeping using my old "individual third-parties are unlikely but together they have a high chance" strategy. For this idea in particular Monster Hunter is a famous series which sells a lot in Japan, but I'm not sure it really has a mascot character who could work as a perfect playable representative of the series.

Monster Hunter character want: 0%
Not familiar with it, not interested. I don't really think this idea would excite me.

Literally who prediction: 3.00%
Guess I'll have to do some basic research just to know who it is and from which series the character comes from.

Nominating:
New item: Beast Ball x5

 

[Wyoming]

Spoiler: Nominations: post-Lloyd, pre-Monstah Huntah

Neku Sakaruba x330
Fawful x299
Tails x290
Ayumi Tachibana x272
Parabo & Satebo x267
Fire Emblem Heroes Summoner x262
Tetra x259

Over 200:

Kamek x252
Wonder Red x252
Primarina x245
Ryu Hayabusa x235
Scorpion x231
Thwomp x226
Linkle x225
Labo Guy/Robot x225
Katrielle Layton x213


199-150

Dragonite x197
Balloon Fighter x190
Ray x188
Concept: Female Announcer x185
DeMille x183
Django x180
Papyrus x175
Concept: Canon Bowser/DK/Diddy voice clips x165
Snip & Clip (Snipperclips) x155
Fire Emblem Three Houses Protagonist x155
Concept: Octopath Traveller Character x150
Tsubasa Oribe x150
Louie x150

149-100

Incineroar x145
Rowlet x125
Nihilego x125
Barbara x122
Nikki x115
Pokemon Trainer (Gen 2) x114
Concept: Hanafuda character x114
2B x111
Neptune x110
Concept: Fire Emblem Spear User x108
Raiden x105
Reinhardt Gets a Trophy x105
Susie x104

99-75

Concept: Style Savvy character x98
Viewtiful Joe x95
Gooey x94
Ninten x93
Viridi x88
Klonoa x87
Concept: Ken Masters alt Costume for Ryu x86
Concept: Pikmin newcomer x85
Tora & Poppi x82
Ken x77
Fjorm x75

74-50


Veronica x73
Rick/Coo/Kine x69
Yu Narakumi x66
Breidablik Item x65
Zeraora (Pokémon) x64
Toon Zelda x64
Concept: All-Star Versus x64
Endou Mamoru x62
9-Volt x62
Concept: Historical Character x60
Concept: Only 4-6 newcomers for base roster x60
Slime x58
Concept: More than five unique newcomers x55
Concept: Wars character x53
Takumi (Fire Emblem) x50

49-26:

Project Zero/Fatal Frame Protagonist x45
[Rerate] Phoenix Wright x45
Rhythm Girl x40
Edelgard x40
Chorus Kids x40
Concept: Chun-Li as an assist trophy x35
Tapu Koko x30
Medusa x30
[Rerate] Spyro x30
Concept: Disconfirmed Characters as DLC x30
Item: Beast Ball x30

Under 25:

Daroach x22
Saber x20
Stage: Poke Floats x20
Stage: Brinstar Depths x20
Frank West x20
Terry Bogard x17
Sub-Zero x17
Adeleine x16
Concept: Custom Alternate Colors x15
Stage: Fountain of Dreams x15
Concept: Custom Moves return x15
Master Chief x10
Xenoblade X Avatar/Cross x10
[Rerate] Concept: Zelda newcomer x10
Dixie Kong & Kiddy Kong x10
Jin Kazama x10
Concept: SR388 stage x5
Alm x5
Nia x5
Earthworm Jim x5
Alexandra Roivas x5
Break the Targets x5
Stage: Ultra Space x5
Zero x5

Changes:

Ayumi moves into 4th. We have a new addition in Zero at 5x nominations.

Last day to influence the top 7 today.

Abstaining from Monster Hunter - never played it but does have the popularity and Nintendo appearances to back up inclusion of some sort. As a Phoenix Wright fan however this is the direct competition...

Nominating Dixie Kong & Kiddy Kong x5

Predicting 2.6% for Sakura Shinguji

 

[CaptainAmerica]

Capcom Rep #57

Chance: 1%
Want: 0%

What is this, Nintendo vs. Capcom?

I don't really think that company representatives should matter much, but there is a point. Phoenix Wright, Amaterasu, anyone from Resident Evil, a new MegaMan or Street Fighter character, etc. That's a lot of Capcom for Nintendo's crossover - and I'm pretty sure most of them are more requested.

Meh.

Prediction for...who tf is this? 2.0%
Nom: Fountain of Dreams x5

 

[Sid-cada]

Monster Hunter

Chance - 8.75% - Okay, a third francise from a third is currently unheard of, but Capcom has enough franchises to break that, I think. Monster Hunter is one of those franchises that has managed to warp the market for them; many console developers will bend over backwards in order to get a game on their system. I'm not certain of them, but I can see a Bayonetta happening here.

Want - 65% - Not as interested as some third parties, but I do think that if they get in I can understand how they deserved it. I have an interest in seeing how they will be potraied.


Prediciton

Sakura Shinguji - 1.23% - Can she get a localized game first?


Nominations

Nihilego X5

 

[colder_than_ice]

Monster Hunter
Chance: 5% - Even though Monster Hunter is a huge franchise, it only uses generic customizable protagonists. I’m honestly only expecting third-party characters that are identifiable individuals. It also doesn’t help that Capcom still has a ton of iconic characters that can still be used.
Want: 30%

Nominations: Edelgard x5

 

[Idon]

Monster Hunter from uhh... Monster Hunter.

Chances: 10%
Monster Hunter is a monolithic giant in Japan AND overseas. Having iconic weapons, locales, background elements, and music, it'd be a perfect fit for Smash. It also has deep ties with Nintendo having multiple consecutive releases on Nintendo hardware each with cameo content from a large amount of IPs Nintendo owns. However, it's heavily hampered by the fact that Ultimate has a short development cycle AND is focused on newcomers this time around on top of being a third character for Capcom. Smash 6 might have a chance but not this one.

Want: 100%
Even as an avatar, the "hunter" so to speak is very emotive, swinging with all of their might and being overly flamboyant when using items like chugging potions or chowing down on a giant meat-bone. What's great is that unlike most other characters in Smash, they're not just a warrior, they're actually hunters. They lay traps, bait, use status ailments, etc etc in order to defeat their prey in combination with their oversized weapons. In addition to that, probably their COOLEST and most ICONIC weapon, the ALL-MIGHTY GREATSWORD, has a very unique mechanic- Hyper-Armor and cancels. Charging up a swing with that weapon lets the Hunter take any amount of punishment without knockback, but leaves them extremely vulnerable before, during, and after, BUT they can negate that by rolling mid-charge, leading to a great mindgame of punishment, baiting, dodging, etc etc.
To sum up, all these mechanics and personality quirks would make the Hunter a great addition to Smash Bros.

As far as "iconic mascots" or whatever, MonHun is such a flexible series with more than a dozen weapons, each of them are unique and extremely fun in their own right. The most likely set to be represented is the rathalos armor which has the benefit of being by far the most iconic armor set of the entire series on top of being faceless. Hell, it even has merchandise of it.

A Palico cat coming out during taunts and victories would be the icing on the cake.

Plus, they've already got a great template to work with:

I nominate a Shin Megami Tensei rep x5

 

[Quetzal77]

Monster Hunter
Chance: 0%
Not happening before an RE rep or second Megaman rep. Those are much more iconic series.

Want: 0%
Not a fan of the series. I'd much rather have one of the above get a newcomer.

Nominations: Neku x 5

 

[Wyoming]

Capping the noms for the top 7 right now: You can nominate after this post, but it won't effect the top 7 anymore. Post will be updated with any nominations after post this but pre-Sakura Shinguji.

Spoiler: Nominations: post-Monster Hunter, pre-Sakura

Neku Sakaruba x335
Fawful x299
Tails x290
Ayumi Tachibana x277
Parabo & Satebo x267
Fire Emblem Heroes Summoner x262
Tetra x259

Over 200:

Kamek x252
Wonder Red x252
Primarina x250
Ryu Hayabusa x235
Scorpion x231
Thwomp x226
Linkle x225
Labo Guy/Robot x230
Katrielle Layton x213
Dragonite x202


199-150

Balloon Fighter x190
Concept: Female Announcer x190
Ray x188
DeMille x183
Django x180
Papyrus x175
Concept: Canon Bowser/DK/Diddy voice clips x170
Snip & Clip (Snipperclips) x155
Fire Emblem Three Houses Protagonist x155
Incineroar x155
Concept: Octopath Traveller Character x150
Tsubasa Oribe x150
Louie x150

149-100

Nihilego x130
Rowlet x125
Barbara x122
Concept: Hanafuda character x119
Nikki x115
Pokemon Trainer (Gen 2) x114
2B x111
Neptune x110
Concept: Fire Emblem Spear User x108
Raiden x105
Reinhardt Gets a Trophy x105
Susie x104
Concept: Style Savvy character x103

99-75

Viewtiful Joe x95
Gooey x94
Ninten x93
Viridi x93
Klonoa x87
Concept: Ken Masters alt Costume for Ryu x86
Concept: Pikmin newcomer x85
Tora & Poppi x82
Ken x77
Fjorm x75

74-50


Veronica x73
Rick/Coo/Kine x69
Yu Narakumi x66
Breidablik Item x65
Zeraora (Pokémon) x64
Toon Zelda x64
Concept: All-Star Versus x64
Endou Mamoru x62
9-Volt x62
Concept: Historical Character x60
Concept: Only 4-6 newcomers for base roster x60
Slime x58
Concept: More than five unique newcomers x60
Concept: Wars character x53
Takumi (Fire Emblem) x50

49-26:

Project Zero/Fatal Frame Protagonist x45
[Rerate] Phoenix Wright x45
Edelgard x45
Rhythm Girl x40
Chorus Kids x40
Concept: Chun-Li as an assist trophy x35
Rerate] Spyro x35
Concept: Disconfirmed Characters as DLC x35
Item: Beast Ball x35
Tapu Koko x30
Medusa x30
Saber x30
Daroach x27

Under 25:

Stage: Poke Floats x25
Stage: Brinstar Depths x20
Frank West x20
Stage: Fountain of Dreams x20
Terry Bogard x17
Sub-Zero x17
Adeleine x16
Concept: Custom Alternate Colors x15
Concept: Custom Moves return x15
Dixie Kong & Kiddy Kong x15
Master Chief x10
Xenoblade X Avatar/Cross x10
[Rerate] Concept: Zelda newcomer x10
Jin Kazama x10
Stage: Ultra Space x10
Zero x10
Concept: SR388 stage x5
Alm x5
Nia x5
Earthworm Jim x5
Alexandra Roivas x5
Break the Targets x5
Concept: Shin Megami Tensei character x5

Changes:

Dragonite breaks 200 noms
Incineroar breaks 150 noms
Style Savvy breaks 100 noms
Saber and Daroach break 25 noms
New addition: SMT character as a concept at x5.

THESE CHARACTERS ARE SCHEDULED IN. VOTING FOR THEM IS OBSOLETE!

24/07: Neku Sakuraba (The World Ends With You)
25/07: Fawful (Super Mario/Mario & Luigi)
26/07: Tails (Sonic The Hedgehog)
27/07: Ayumi Tachibana (Detective Club)
28/07: Parabo & Satebo (Satellaview)
29/07: Fire Emblem Heroes Summoner (Fire Emblem)
30/07: Tetra (The Legend of Zelda)

TCT~Phantom

 

[Capybara Gaming]

Concept - Monster Hunter Character
Chance: 30% - Monster Hunter is a big franchise for Capcom and one that's not only been making some rounds in crossovers lately and has a great relationship with Nintendo - including some gear from the series appearing in Smash for the Mii Fighters. I definitely feel like they could get in, but with Capcom already having two full reps I don't know how much I would bet on it.
Want: 30% - I don't really care for the games, but I think a character would be pretty cool.

Prediction: Sakura Shinguji
Chance: 3.21%
Want: 12.13%

Nominations
Frank West x5

 

[DaUsername]

Double abstain.

Sakura whatever prediction: 1%
Noms: All-star versus x5

 

[Smasher 101]

Monster Hunter character

Chance: 15%

I don't think a third party company will get above two characters for now, but if one does it's likely to be Capcom, and I think Monster Hunter is the most likely to be the third franchise because it's a pretty big franchise all around, and it's crossed over with Nintendo content before. Plus it got DLC content in 4, the only Capcom franchise without a fighter to do so if I recall correctly.

Want: 50%

Completely indifferent. Big enough franchise to please me and would likely fit in well, but I have no connection to it.

Sakura prediction: 1.44%

Nominations: Incineroar x5

 

[andimidna]

Oops haven’t came here in like a week

I think Monster Hunter is very possible, but not someone I’d rank too high in priority if push came to shove. Maybe I’ll edit in numbers later.

x3 Hanafuda character
x2 Style Savvy character

 

[DivineWrath45]

Monster Hunter Rep

Chance - 5.5%
As much as I like it to have a Monster Hunter Rep in Ultimate, I highly doubt they would do it, even if it's popular. Besides, Capcom already have two reps, there's no need for one more.

Want - 0%
I'm not really familiar of the Monster Hunter series at all. I have never played any of it's games.

Nominations:
Saber (Artoria Pendragon) x5

 

[CrusherMania1592]

Monster Hunter Rep

Chances: 5% and want 0% - not really a fan of the series being in Smash. And I am sure the third party group we have right now is more than enough

Octoling x5

 

[ProfPeanut]

Monster Hunter Rep

Chance: 4%
Incredibly popular, but also incredibly console-agnostic. With a habit of siding with whichever platform gives it the most accessibility while retaining its graphical standards, Monster Hunter is a series that Nintendo owes no favors to. Nor does it owe Nintendo very much in return, being one of the few self-made moneymaking franchises to emerge in the past fifteen years.

As per usual, newcomer space is tight, and third-party newcomer space even more so. Despite their profitable collaboration,, Monster Hunter and Nintendo are too historically unrelated for the former to be a forefront candidate. That's without going into whether you could make a single Hunter a satisfactory candidate.

Want: 1%
While I'd love to see them drop a Deviljho into Smash Run, it's not something that'd necessitate there being a character first anymore, if Bomberman's any indication. While not the worst or weirdest choice amongst the Capcom reps you could choose from, it doesn't exactly trump the appeal of seeing someone like Phoenix Wright or Amaterasu instead, even though the latter is almost equally as Nintendo-neutral.


Prediction
Sakura Shinguji: 2.7%

Nominations
Viridi x5

 

[Hydra of Chaos]

Monster Hunter rep

chance: 4.2% there are reasons for putting him/her in, but the biggest success of the series, MHW, wasn´t even on Nintendo platforms. not immpossible tho

want: 80% I like the series and as the Hunter would focus on many different weapons he/she could become an really interesting fighter

 

[Erureido]

Monster Hunter rep

Chance: 10%

Monster Hunter has become quite the popular series, especially in Japan, and it has multiple releases on Nintendo consoles now. It even had a character appear as a playable fighter in Marvel vs Capcom: Infinite, and it even got Mii Costume representation in Smash 4.

The primary issues are that Monster Hunter doesn't have a clear protagonist to choose from the get-go, but Rathalos could work as one seeing its importance to the franchise and the Mii Costume it got in Smash 4. There's also the issue of having to compete with more prominent Capcom reps, and even that is more uncertain now that we have Megaman and Ryu repping Capcom in Smash Ultimate once more.

Want: Abstain

I can't say much about how much I want this to happen.

------

Predictions

Sakura Shinguji (Sakura Taisen): 2.03%

No comment.

------

Nominations

Phoenix Wright (Ace Attorney): x5

 

[VillagerX3]

Monster Hunter Rep:

Chance: 5%
While Monster Hunter is a popular series, I don’t really see a good move set (because I hardly have ever played MH) that can attribute to Smash’s gameplay for the Smash Devs to create. Nintendo has had some Monster Hunter times (mii costumes, Mario/Luigi in game attributes) but we already have 7 different third-party characters and I think Sakurai might want to focus on new Nintendo charaters, eps. after Sm4sh’s DLC.

Want: 0%
I’m not really a fan of Monster Hunter, plus, I want more Nintendo characters, not more third-parties.

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Ok, Wyoming , deadline for noms is tonight.

Sorry for the super long day, a lot of things have kept me occupied lately. My dog is getting older and we had a cancer scare for him, the air conditioning in my room broke, I got sick, etc.

Expect a long thing of calcs today.

Also due to the delay, starting Day 118-124 everyone gets 10x noms a day instead of 5.

 

[Opossum]

Reinhardt trophy x5

Ok, Wyoming , deadline for noms is tonight.

Sorry for the super long day, a lot of things have kept me occupied lately. My dog is getting older and we had a cancer scare for him, the air conditioning in my room broke, I got sick, etc.

Expect a long thing of calcs today.

Also due to the delay, starting Day 118-124 everyone gets 10x noms a day instead of 5.

Aww, poor dog. Hope everything's okay.

 

[MacDaddyNook]

Monster Hunter

Chance: 10%
MH is a pretty popular series as of late, so it's not out of the question. Again, the chance score is low simply due to there being such stiff competition, even from its own company, and less newcomer spaces this time.

Want: Abstain
I don't know enough about the series or character to really care. With that said, I'd rather not get another generic character name ending in "er."

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Reinhardt trophy x5


Aww, poor dog. Hope everything's okay.

He’s okay they all are benign, he was just old and lumpy happens to labs.

 

[AlphaSSB]

He’s okay they all are benign, he was just old and lumpy happens to labs.

Glad to hear he's doing okay.

My first dog was a Labrador, so I understand a bit of what you're experiencing. Still my favorite breed, though.

 

[Troykv]

I'll abstian with the Concept becase I arrive too late I just want to make sure I finish my post soon enough.

_______________

Predicitons

Sakura Shinguji: 2.1% (This is the character that will get double 0s this month? Who knows?)

Nominations:

Ayumi Tachibana x3
Adeleine x2

 

[ZTurtle]

Chance: 30%
I mean, I could see it. Monster Hunter is pretty huge in Japan as far as I know, and it seems decently popular in the West to. I mean the project plan was finalized before World, but it still had a strong enough following that most (all? I'm not sure) of the main series games were localized. I'm of the opinion that having at least one more third party is nearly a guarantee, and I can see a Monster Hunter being one. It's not the MOST likely third party all things considered, but it was Nintendo exclusive for quite a while, so that's something.

Want: 25%
It would be kinda cool. I never did get into main series Monster Hunter though. Kind of lost interest while playing 4. Now Monster Hunter Stories, that game I love, but the series on the whole I'm indifferent too. So yeah.

Nominations:
Phoenix Wright x5

 

[Lord-Zero]

Monster Hunter
Chance: 10%
- The franchise IS very popular so seeing some sort of representation in Smash would make sense. The Smash developers could go crazy with the moveset possibilities.
Want: 30%
- Sure. I wouldn’t mind. There’s plenty of competition, though.

Prediction
Sakura Shinguji: 3.6%

Nomination
Katrielle Layton (Professor Layton) x5

 

[TCT~Phantom]

OK so I have good news and bad news.

The good news is my dog is healthy.

Bad news is I had to get all the stuff around the home fixed up now that I was not occupied with my dog and my sickness.

Calcs tomorrow. Abstaining today.

 

[NintenRob]

Sakura

Uhhh no.
Double 0.
When I have to look up the character, they're definitely too obscure, especially for a third party

Nominate Daroach x5
Modern Kirby stage x5

 

[Idon]

Double Abstain

I've never heard of this franchise, but the gameplay does look fairly entertaining.
SMT Rep x10 5.

 

[Sari]

Sakura Shinguji

Chance: 0%. Obscure character from an old series that hasn't had a relevant title in years. I know there is a new game coming out next year, but I highly doubt that will suddenly make them viable as a playable character.
Want: 0%. Never heard of them and there are way better Sega reps out there. Also I'm against multiple 3rd party characters from the same company unless they are incredibly iconic.

Nominations:
Terry Bogard x10

 

[GoodGrief741]

I swear to god I thought the last name was something else
Edit: see, I knew it!

Chance: I’ll give her that I have heard of the franchise... and that’s it. 0%

Want: 0%
I can’t want what I don’t know.

Nominations: People seem to be using 10? I dunno why, but if I get 10 make that 5xNinten, 5xRyu Hayabusa. If it’s only five, then... whoever has more.

 

[Artix]

Sakura Shinguji (not Shinjuku)

Chance: 1%
I highly doubt they would add another SEGA rep this time around. If she did, she would be in the same situation as Cloud (having almost no connection to Nintendo). Although, she does have a game that was released on the Nintendo Wii (Sakura Wars 5), but she was not even the main character in that game, again putting her in the same situation as Cloud.

Want: 95%
Sakura is one of my favorite SEGA characters, alongside Shadow the Hedgehog. I would really appreciate it if they do add her in the game, especially since I really wanted her to fight against my nominee.

Nomination:
Saber Artoria (Fate) x5

(BTW, isn't it from Day 118-124 that we're allowed to use 10 noms? If we're allowed to use 10, then I'll edit this later.)

 

[Parallel_Falchion]

Sakura Shinguji
Chance: 1% (rounded up)
*Googles character* Oh yeah, I've seen her before. She's, uh...Who is she?

Want: 9%
She's a cutie so sure? I guess? I know, I can be shallow sometimes.

Nominate Style Savvy character x5

 

[Deleted member]

Sakura
Chance: 0%

(I "sort of" know who she is, I just think her obscurity and japanese exclusivity effectively kill her chances)
Want: abstain

Ultra Space stage x5

 

[BlueMagician]

Shinguuji Sakura

Chance: 5%
She's the popular face of series that was so popular in Japan that it spawned a stage production... That being said, I don't think the series fans even voted her in the Smash ballot because no one had thought it would happen. She's appeared in crossovers lately (like Granblue) so if SEGA wants to be goofy they might ask for her, or if Sakurai wants someone unexpected that's also from a third party.

Want: 85%
We're talking about a Japaneseque katana-wielding beauty in a mech that's the size of this game's Ridley. Of course I want to see it! And besides, she's just a fun person.

Nomination:
Viridi x 5

Prediction (this space reserved for when I figure out who's next)

 

[Deleted member]

Sakura Shinjuku
Chance: 0%
Want: abstain

Much too obscure, and comes from a fairly niche series.

Noms:
Female announcer x5