Monster Hunter Rep
Chance: 15%
Monster Hunter is the definition of a rising star when it comes to recent third party franchises. It started out modestly, with decent success in its first few titles, but once it made its way to the Wii with Tri it started to blow up in a big way. Outside of Tri (which sold over 1 million) and Generation U (which currently sold over 1.8 million combining sales between versions), every mainline Monster Hunter game has sold at least around 3 million in Japan alone, with Portable 3rd in particular selling nearly 5 million in the region. That's nothing to scoff at, especially for a franchise that was as long lived as those like Pokémon or Zelda. Its western numbers didn't fully blow up until World (which came out too late to have an effect on the base roster), but 4U and Generation owe at least over a million of their sales to the western regions, so even ignoring its breakout game it garnered a notable and growing fanbase among the west and its popularity would not be lopsided towards the Japanese.
Of course, that's just sales, in terms of its prominence it's also very notable. It's had crossovers with many games including FE, Zelda, Mario, Metroid, Metal Gear, SF, Mega Man, Badge Academy and other such franchises, and it's cover style has been imitated by other games. Finally, it was also given a Mii Costume, so it's arguably already on Sakurai's radar at the moment. Ultimately, there's no denying that as a franchise it's left a mark despite its younger age, even if you remove World from the equation (which would probably be the case as it wasn't known until mid-2016, after Sakurai likely drafted the roster), it's been a franchise that's been huge in Japan and growing in the west, and among Nintendo fans it's certainly garnered a strong fanbase due to its history with the company's handhelds and outcries for the franchise to make some sort of return to the Switch in the future. Due to all these facts, its managed to make use of its short time in the world to make a name for itself, and that name can easily allow it to be chosen as a character for Smash.
The biggest potential issues are the lack of a 'face' like Cloud or Ryu, and the competition among other third parties. The latter is an issue, especially since third parties are a highly contestable bunch (especially with options like Simon Belmont among them), but the former I'm not sure I fully agree with. It would be great if the series had a character like those two to attach to, but I'd say that the Rathalos armor that VexTheHex is an iconic look for the series. It's the look that was used for the Mii costumes, it's what is used when the series crosses over with other franchises (such as MvCI), and it's the look that borrows from one of the series' mascots in the form of the Rathalos. If you were to use that look, people would definitely recognize Monster Hunter off of it as it's a look that's specific to the series alone and represents everything that it's about, and you can easily use that to get around the issue of lacking a 'Cloud' in that sense. Even ignoring that there's also the Felynes, who while not as popular among western fans, are the other mascots of the series that are prominent across its multiple medias and crossovers. Chances are, if Monster Hunter is somewhere, the Felynes are not too far behind, and they would be recognizable if they were chosen for the series as well. Ultimately, both are feasible characters that can work with integrating the series into a crossover like Smash while still being iconic to the series they originate from.
All in all, I'd say this is a franchise that shouldn't be slept on as a candidate. It's a recent franchise, but one that has more then made its name in the world and even ignoring its post-2015 success it still was in a strong place going into Ultimate's roster drafting. It had the popularity, it was close to many Nintendo fans due to its prominence on the 3DS, it was already recognized by Sakurai through the Mii Costume, and it's been featured (and has featured) many popular and iconic franchises. It's proof that you don't have to be old to be notable, and that can easily win it favor in getting it into Smash as a possible third part character.
Want: 95%
I guess with the long text you can probably tell that I'm a big fan of the series. Monster Hunter was a franchise I was introduced to later in its lifetime, but since then it's become one of my favorite franchises. I sunk over 200 hours into 3U, I fought the Lagiacrus multiple times, I went to the volcano hunting for Rathalos, hell, I didn't even mind the underwater mechanics and still dove into the submerged forest areas. It was a game that despite being my first entry into the franchise, I couldn't stop playing it for so long, I enjoyed it so much I'd probably put it among my Top 5 3DS titles. Following that, I also bought 4U, Generations, and World, and I played all of them for long stretches of hours. Despite moving on from 3U I still found myself immersed into the worlds that they gave, and the new monsters that they each introduced added a lot to the experience that each gave. It's a franchise that despite being young, has managed to sneak its way into becoming a franchise that I hold in strong favor, and I would love to see it get into Smash so that others can get introduced to the franchise.
Also, the characters have multiple options to be a fun character among the cast. From the iconic Great Sword (which if you've seen MvCI, you know how fun that looks) to the unique Charge Blade and Insect Glaive, there's a lot you can do with the character to make them an enjoyable addition to the roster. The same goes for the Felynes, who while more restricted, also have fun options from their horns, weapons, claw and jump attacks, and other such moves. Both I feel would have something to give if they were chosen as characters for Smash, and I would enjoy seeing them playable among its large and growing cast.
Nomination: Incineroar x5