Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[Quetzal77]

Excitebiker
Chance: 60% / Want: 50%
Takamaru is deconfirmed. Excitebiker is now the most likely retro rep imo. However, it isn't a guarantee.

Mach Rider
Chance: 10% / Want: abstain
Seems a bit too obscure to me and not very hype worthy. Not sure how I would feel since I have no connection.

Prince Sable
Chance: 10% / Want: 25%
He's decently well known and I don't think he'd be controversial, but being Japan only hurts his chances.

Nominations: Neku x 5

 

[IvanQuote]

Mach Rider:

Chance: 10%
Want: 30%

I don’t really know much about either Excitebike or Mach Rider. I’m not too sure if there is going to be a new Retro Rep. Sakurai said “don’t expect too many new fighters” and I’m taking that as any non-Echo fighter added will be REALLY high profile characters that many would want, like Ridley and Inkling. Mach Rider doesn’t really scream that for me and I don’t see any current characters he could Echo, so low ratings. I do admit a fighter on a motorcycle would be pretty cool though, so he’s slightly higher on the want list, but I’d gladly takes most others over.

Excitebike:

Chance: 20%
Want: 30%

I’m treating these two the same want-wise and most of the stuff with Mach Rider applies here, but since Excitebike fits the retro bill better that gives a higher chance in my eyes.

Prince Sable:

Chance: 5%
Want: 5%

Prince Sable fits even less as a retro rep in my eyes. Plus I genuinely like his Assist Trophy so I’d prefer him to have that over character slot. That being said, what I want most is the main song from this game to get remixed into the music.

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Excitebiker

60% Chance

IMO not much has changed for me, I still have some strong confidence in the biker. IMO they has a strong resume for a retro. The franchise did pop up again, they would be unique, and they has a solid chance. IMO what has changed for me is I think we are only going to get one retro character, and there are other options I have to consider, imo though there are only a few realistic ones.

100% Want

I want to be a biker. I just wanna.

Mach Rider

5% Chance

Simply put she is kind of in a bad spot due to her game being nowhere near as iconic as the excitebiker. Yes she. Simply put Excitebiker has way more of a legacy then Mach Rider does. Excitebikes pops up more, Excite series is not totaly dead.


100% Want

Honestly I think she would be cooler than Excitebiker, though both have the gimmick I really really like.

Prince Sable
5%

His assist trophy not showing up does arouse some suspicion on my part, but at the same time I am a bit doubtful. I mean if Takamaru did not make it, why would someone from a far smaller and less historically significant game make it in?

100% Want

Love the little guy and his design. I would love to play as them.

Nominating Concept: Smash Run returning x 5


Also one other little weird thing is that so far we have not seen Lip's stick in smash ultimate. Just throwing that out there.

 

[AlphaSSB]

Excitebiker

Chance: 5% - Was considered for Melee, I believe, but was rejected as Sakurai couldn't find a realistic way for him to jump. It's certainly possible Sakurai could find a way to make it work, but that would imply Sakurai would even give Excitebiker a shot again in the first place. I really don't see him happening.

Want: 5% - I wouldn't hate to see him at all, just have no interest in him, personally.


Mach Rider

Chance: 10% - Mach Rider would work as a Captain Falcon clone, but I think if Captain Falcon were to get a clone, it'd be Black Shadow. On his own merits, I don't see too many interesting things to gain Sakurai's attention.

Want: 5% - Like with Excitebiker, I wouldn't hate to see him, just have no interest.


Prince Sable

Chance: 1% - Out of all the possible Retro characters we could get, I highly doubt we'd get Prince Sable. He's likely to stay as an Assist Trophy, but that's it.

Want: 0% - No interest in the character, and I can think of many better choices.


Nominations: Slippy Toad x5

 

[Runic_SSB]

Abstain all 3

Isabelle prediction: 20%

Shadow prediction: 30%

Funky Kong prediction: 20%

Octolings prediction: 15%

Nominations:
Raiden x5

 

[Deleted member]

I hate the fact that I defended Decidueye's support for being more than just a bandwagon. I'm eating those words right now, and they taste like ****. Thankfully he still has a group of dedicated fans that aren't just me, myself, and I. :/
With that in mind, I'll be giving a 1% want for all of today's characters.
With Takamaru eliminated, there is no plausible retro candidate I have any interest in. Retros in general are pretty overrated IMO.
Buuuuut I guess it wouldn't be the end of the world if they got in. I have nothing against them, but I'm not clamoring for them either.

Nominating Susie x5

 

[Deleted member]

Chance for all three: 0.1%
Ultimate is focused on popularity and pleasing fans. These characters are not popular in the slightest, and would only be added because they're retro. It's safe to assume that we're not getting a retro character in this game, especially with Takamaru disconfirmed.

Excitebiker Want: 80%
Bikes are cool. Tricks are fun. Next.

Want for the other two: 0%
Don't care at all. Would much rather have Excitebiker.

 

[StrangeMann]

I hate the fact that I defended Decidueye's support for being more than just a bandwagon. I'm eating those words right now, and they taste like ****. Thankfully he still has a group of dedicated fans that aren't just me, myself, and I. :/
With that in mind, I'll be giving a 1% want for all of today's characters.
With Takamaru eliminated, there is no plausible retro candidate I have any interest in. Retros in general are pretty overrated IMO.
Buuuuut I guess it wouldn't be the end of the world if they got in. I have nothing against them, but I'm not clamoring for them either.

Nominating Susie x5

Hey man, I want you to know that even though I don’t think he’s as likely anymore, decidueye would be super fun to play and I think he would be a pretty good contender for a smash bros fighter. His moveset, typing, and visual design are all pretty good, and it may be enough to pull through in the smash bros roster.
There’s an exceptionally high amount of people on the Pokémon RTC yesterday who gave the Pokémon they liked a 50+ % Chance and gave the other Pokémon a sub-10% chance, I feel like that’s a bit of a disservice as Decidueye, Mimikyu, and Lycanroc all have redeeming qualities in my opinion and each would make for an interesting fighter.
My brothers most wanted is decidueye and he doesn’t even play pokken, I still think there’s a chance for decidueye to pull through. At the end of the day, we’re all just speculators who don’t represent the development team’s own opinions at all, it’s honestly anything goes.

 

[NeonBurrito]

Excitebiker

Chance - 5%

With Takamaru gone, he's now become the most likely retro character, considering his history of being in Smash in some form / being considered for Melee. The thing is, I honestly don't feel like we'll be getting a retro newcomer this time around, considering Ultimate's increased focus on fanservice. The Ice Climbers were Ultimate's retro character, they just weren't a newcomer, but instead a returning veteran.

Want - 70%

I did some thinking on this last night, considering it was its day tomorrow, and I realized that a speedy character who is constantly on his bike would make for a real cool fighter. I'd totally want to blast someone in the face with exhaust smoke as a back air, or jump through flaming rings for a recovery move.

My thoughts really haven't changed.

Mach Rider

Chance - 1%

Retro pick in a game I don't think is getting a new retro character.

Want - 80%

Apparently this guy is basically an Excitebiker but with a laser gun. That sounds rad as hell. I want that.
EDIT: Apparently Mach Rider is a girl too, kind of like Samus with the whole "looks like a dude, actually a lady" kind of thing. Makes her even cooler, honestly.

Prince Sable

Chance - 0%

Retro pick in a game I don't think is getting a new retro character. Also, Japan only.

Want - 0%

He's from a Japan only game. I'm not Japanese. I don't know who this guy is.

 

[Opossum]

Chance scores:
Sablé: 0%
Mach Rider: 2%
Excitebiker: 5%

First lol Japan only retro. Beyond that though, with the lower amount of newcomers this time, I'm convinced we won't get a retro character.

Want:
Sablé: 0%
Mach Rider: 100%
Excitebiker: 10%

Mach Rider is great. Post apocalyptic biker with a laser-mounted motorcycle? A moveset focused around shifting gears to alter your properties? Sign me up.

 

[Erimir]

Excitebike and Mach Rider (discussed together since they are similar)
Biggest problem for Excitebike is the moveset. Sure, you could do some stuff with bike tricks, like swinging the body of the bike forward around the handlebars for an aerial attack. But what are the specials? The original Excitebike has gotten some recognition in the past few years, such as being one of the 3D classics on the 3DS, and most notably the DLC Mario Kart track based on the game. And of course, the Excite series has had a few installments since the NES, with the most recent being Excitebike World Rally in 2010. Perhaps this could provide some moves, but even so, it's kinda hard to see how to incorporate Excite Truck or Excite Bots into the move set. Being always on bike might also result in awkward proportions (it would be unusually wide. Also how would hurtbox interact with the bike?)

There's a lot more potential for a Mach Rider move set, since his motorcycle has guns. But would he spend all his time on the motorcycle or what? I could see it being used almost like a transformation - with the motorcycle summoned the way Wario summons his, but with more options while riding it (such as shooting the guns). Without the motorcycle he could be a Captain Falcon/Fox-like fighter (potentially with a weaker projectile than the bike-mounted gun?). If the idea is for him to always be on the bike, it's a bit harder to come up with ideas. But if he spends most of his time off the bike, he's not offering as much uniqueness/faithfulness to his game.

Similar notes apply to Excitebike rider if he potentially doesn't always ride the bike (Mach Rider's design looks more "combat ready" so being off the bike would work better for him though).

Probably noteworthy that Mach Rider didn't even get a trophy in Smash 4, while Excitebike has been a trophy in Melee and Smash 4, and an AT in Brawl.

But overall, Mach Rider has better move set potential but has only the one game, while Excitebike rider is much more well-known, has a series with several installments and gets more recognition from Nintendo.

Excitebike chance: 5%
Mach Rider chance: 5%
Overall, the problem is that they're both hard to adapt, and while Mach Rider is easier, the game is less well-known and has gotten less representation in Smash in the past. Either is possible, but they would both be somewhat strange choices. Mach Rider also perhaps has a chance as an Echo Fighter, most likely for Captain Falcon, although he doesn't really have the popularity to justify such an inclusion - the reason to include him would be for his unique features, not because fans are clamoring for him (cf. Daisy who didn't have the most amazing moveset potential/uniqueness but had plenty of fans)

Excitebike want: 25%
He could be interesting but I don't have any attachment to the series and he seems hard to adapt.
Mach Rider want: 35%
Seems easier to adapt, but still not that interested.

Prince of Sable
The biggest issue is that he's basically unknown outside of Japan and the Smash AT. The reference to his game in Link's Awakening was totally lost on non-Japanese audiences (or at least, I didn't know what it was about until encountering people here who wanted him in Smash). There is some move set potential, although his mode of fighting in the game is kind of strange. I don't think the prince has any chance as a straight transformation character, so I would expect the move set to be more like the Inklings' - he changes into a frog or snake for certain moves, but is human most of the time. The AT in Smash 4 shows him getting more recognition, but if the game is focused on fan service, presumably they'd prioritize characters that did better on the ballot like K Rool (who perhaps counts as somewhat retro at this point). If the game isn't, well, he has a better chance but they would still have plenty of other options for retro characters, and they'd also have promotional characters to consider. There isn't really any reason to think of this as likely. Sakurai at least has considered Excitebike in the past...
Prince of Sable chance: 2%
Prince of Sable want: 35%
He would be ok, but I don't really want him vs. plenty of better choices.

Nominations: Tetra x5

 

[Icedragonadam]

Sable Chan

Chance: 5%
Want: 20%

He's probably doomed to Assist trophy status if Takamaru is anything to go by.

Mach Rider

Chance: 50%
Want: 100%

I believe she'll be the retro unlockable this time. I think the gun Sakurai got with that mech was for her. Plus right now she's my mosted wanted retro.

Excitebiker

Chance: 25%
Want: 20%

Possible but I'm still leaning towards Mach Rider for that spot. And I'm not that dazzled by him

Isabelle Prediction: 60%
Shadow: 27.77%
Funky: 29.99%
Octolings: 15.55%

Nominate Concept: More Than 5 Unique Newcomers(barring Ridley and Inklings) x5

 

[GoodGrief741]

Excitebiker: 15%
Sadly I can’t give him any more than that, while he’s iconic, it seems Sakurai (for some reason) can’t imagine him jumping without ramps. He hasn’t changed his mind on Ridley and Villager and Miis, so that might have to be taken into account.

Mach Rider: 5%
A dark horse pick over here, but it appears to be recent popularity rather than anything that could have affected the ballot, and Nintendo seems to have forgotten about him.

Prince Sable: 50%
Yes, really.
Now we are most likely getting a retro rep. Even if newcomer slots are tight, I don’t see Sakurai bucking that tradition. If you disagree, feel free to disregard the rest of the post.
Given that Takamaru is out of the running, who can we expect as a retro pick? As far as I’m concerned, there’s only three possible picks: Sable, Lip, and Balloon Fighter. People seem to feel that Villager’s Up-B disqualifies Balloon Fighter, so it’s between Lip and Sable. While Lip has had a consistently strong fanbase since the Brawl era, Sable accomplished something she didn’t - he got in Smash. As proven by Takamaru, getting in even as an Assist Trophy provides a lot of visibility, so I don’t doubt he performed well in the Ballot.
Then there’s the issue of moveset potential. Nobody can deny that even without playing the game and witnessing all the insanity Sable brings to the table, the base idea of a guy that can turn into a frog and a snake has a lot of instant potential. That’s very important, seeing how Sakurai apparently couldn’t figure out how to make Takamaru work (most likely he, like many people here, dismissed him because he appeared to be a simple samurai).
All things considered, this 50% is Takamaru’s original rating, minus 8 points for less popularity and For the Frog not having been released in the West (but it should be noted that it was released on the 3DS in Japan, so its not like Nintendo forgot about it).

Want scores
100% for Excitebiker and Mach Rider
What can I say, I love retros
Infinity percent for Sable
My most wanted newcomer

Nominations: Ayumi TachibanaX5

 

[CaptainAmerica]

Oh boy, a day full of old, dead, pixel characters...

"Every Smash Game Gets A Retro Rep" is one of those wonderful rules that exists insofar as it hasn't been broken yet. You know, exactly like the "Every Smash Gets A Pokémon Newcomer" that we had yesterday. Now we're all here rating these characters quite high because it's literally unthinkable that, for a fanservice roster, Sakurai may decide to put in a character that over 50% of the fanbase requests over some random character that over 50% of the fanbase doesn't know?

So, We did Excitebiker before. What did I say there?

Retrobiker

Chance: 10%
Want: 0%

omg another retro, so amazing.[/s]

Again, I'm not really sold on anything that "It's old and dead" is the only think in its favor. Excitebiker would be tough to work around in the first place, and may have been briefly considered for Melee before being dumped for the ICs since it'd be tough to get him to do anything (or we could have him be an earthbender and create his own ramps since everyone seems to be sold on terraforming movesets now...)

Takamaru's got a lock on the retro, and we really don't need them to be stuffing the roster when there are more interesting characters around that are more than just pixels. Leave the assist and call it a day. If you want, we could even go with a modeled form like he has for his Melee trophy. Best for him would really be a track in MarioKart (and he got it! The end.)

Well, I guess Tak really didn't have the lock on the retro. Oops. Let's knock that Chance down to about 5%. Well, what about the other two?

Less Well Known Retrobiker

Chance: 1%
Want: 0%

See above. He's (she's?) not even as well known and requested.

The Frog Prince

Chance: 1%
Want: 0%

And another one who is in a game which was never localized, and then left to die. Gee...I feel like we rated someone before who was in a single Japan-only game, had a sticker in Brawl, was an assist in Sm4sh, and then finally made the jump to playable in Ultimate.

I can’t bring myself to rate any newcomer higher than 50%, just because Sakurai is next to impossible to predict. Personally, I expect there are two most likely newcomers, based on references in the previous game, Sakurai’s comments, and polls from around the world. K.Rool, and this guy...

Takamaru

Chance: 45%
Want: 25%

Sakurai’s been thinking about him most every game so far. While he’s yet to make it, @PushDustIn has the articles on Sora that say who was considered for each game, and Tak’s there each time.

The relevance argument is also out the window thanks to Mac. Tak’s not really been seen in the west, but he was in as an assist and has a great chance of making the jump in the next game.

The only thing that could hold him back is that Zelda basically took his developers and ran off with them, so his history is one game that is 30 years old. Could be considered Retro now...

Personally, he doesn’t do anything for me. I’ve never heard about him (like most in the west, I expect) before his Assist was revealed, and there are a few characters I’d like to see first. Still, I’d be interested in a samurai who fights with an iaijutsu style.

...Wait, Takamaru did make it to playable in Ultimate, right?

Ah.

So, considering Sablé's in exactly the same position as Tak, except Sablé's game is newer (92 as opposed to 86), and Sablé is not as highly requested, and Sablé didn't get a consolatory Mii costume. And Takamaru is still an assist. Ooh, not looking good for the little guy.

As I've mentioned, we don't need to put in a retro just because we need a retro. Again, if we added something just because "Smash needs X rep," we wouldn't have to argue about K.Rool vs. Dixie anymore. Ultimate is blowing away our pathetic fan rules one by one, and it looks like Fanservice is the driving force here. So why add a character who most of the fanbase doesn't even recognize (or care about)?

Nom: Tails x5

 

[Kitty-chan]

Excitebiker

Chance: 20%
With Takamaru deconfirmed, I see Excitebiker as a little more likely nyao nya. He's Iconic, but his biggest issue still lies with what sort of moveset he could possibly have nya. Maybe I'm just nyot that imaginative nya?

Want: 55%
Opinion hasn't really changed, I'm still unsure nyabout him because I don't nyo what he could do besides run over opponents and jump; I think if he's added, Sakurai would have to add something to him, so here's looking forward to that nya. I want him a bit more nyao, simply out of wanting to see a retro nyucomer nya.


Mach Rider

Chance: 20%
Same reason as with Exciterbiker. Nyapparently can shoot lasers, so I guess that sorta increases the possibility nya~ But she's nyalso less known than Excitebiker, so I'll just say they're even nya.

Want: 57.5%
Same reason as with Excitebiker, but lasers nya!


Prince Sable

Chance: 5%
Popular retro character in Japan, and was nyot seen in a AT yet; but he's nyalso from a Japanese exclusive game nya. Nyalong with competing with other retro characters that just seem likelier... and with the possiblity we may nyot even get a retro character this time nyaround... he's likely to remain in a AT nya.

Want: 65%
He's a cute little fellow nya~ And a character that can shiftshape into a snake or frog to nyattack sounds fun to me nya~


Nyominations
Tingle: x5

 

[Nebelung]

Oh it's my BOYS DAY!!!!

Sablé Prince!
Chance: 5%

Okay! So he's a retro that isn't confirmed yet, is a retro Sakurai likes, but is Japan-exclusive and doesn't have the biggest supporters. Honestly 5% is even generous, but I like to stay optimistic! I do think he has a shot of some kind, but his assist trophy role is almost perfect for a character like him and I'm not sure if Sakurai would flex his bias for him.

Want: 100%
I want him so bad please



Excitebiker
Chance: 10%
Definitely one of the more popular retros, though that isn't saying too much. If we do get a retro he's definitely a top contender. I can definitely see moveset potential in him so I don't think adding him will be much of an issue.

Want: 10%
I've played the game a few times and he's really cute and influential! I like the Mario Kart 8 stage he inspired as well. He's a welcome retro to me.



Mach Rider
Chance: 7%
Admittedly I have not heard much of this guy! I think the problem here is he reminds me too much of Excitebiker, who seems like the more popular choice. I'm hesitant to rank but I will put him lower than Excitebiker for this reason.

Want: 1%
I'd like to try out the game with him now! But I haven't heard much of him to this point so I'm very neutral.
Edit: oh god shes a girl im so sorry


Noms: Ayumi Tachibana x5

 

[ShinyRegice]

Since I almost missed the triple Pokémon day, I'm going to post this one now.

Excitebiker chances: 41%
With Takamaru's reign being over they now occupy the niche of most likely "retro" newcomer, hence why I increased their rating since last time. Unlike most other "retro" candidates they're not too obscure, as evidenced by the course in Mario Kart 8 and actually having sequels. Constantly riding a bike also gives them unique moveset potential, even if a lot of it is "made up", it would still be unique as there's no acrobatic biker in the game... there's Wario but only for one move and not acrobatic at all. At the same time we're not guaranted to get a "retro".

Excitebiker want: 64%
You know what? I used to think "okay whatever" about this idea but after thinking about it it actually sounds, well, exciting. It could be a momentum-based fighter, and would be the character with the most multi-hit attacks due to attacking mostly with its wheels. Here are some of their attributes that would make them unique and interesting:
- Side B: uses turbo to go on an offensive rush. You can keep pressing the B button to accelerate further, but if you do it too much you risk to overheat your bike (as in the original game as said in http://nintendo.wikia.com/wiki/Excitebike). It addition, the momentum you get when you release the B button is kept and progressively fades, or can be exploited with other moves.
- Neutral B: activates their wheel to generate dust around them. Said dust can damage opponents at a fast rate. If you do it while not moving, it won't be very powerful, but if you use it while carrying your momentum from dashing or using your side B, you will generate a lot of dust that can rack up a lot of damage in little time if you do it well!
- Up B: realizes freestyle motocross and rises. The more momentum you have the higher you'll go.
- Down B: braking. As its name implies it only works if you have momentum. You quickly cancel it and all your kinetic energy will be released in a brief and powerful attack. While generating dust can be good for racking up dagame, this one is ideal for a K.O.

And for the Final Smash, a backflip attack, as a reference to the real-life most impressive stunt in FMX.

Mach Rider chances: 5%
I may be wrong, but I'm pretty sure this one is more obscure than Excitebike, right? If that's the case then Excitebiker simply makes more sense, especially since I believe this one is mostly stuck in the past while Excitebike got more acknowledgements in modern Nintendo (like the aforementioned Mario Kart 8 course).

Mach Rider want: 12%
For what I know it seems like Excitebiker makes more sense. Although I guess they have similar moveset potential?

Prince Sablé chances: 0.2%
His Assist Trophy has not been shown yet!... but neither did Isaac's in Smash 4. This argument is stronger for potential low-cost echoes or at least characters who have other things going for them, but this one comes from an obscure Japan-only Game Boy game. An Assist Trophy was going to be the best he'd get realistically.

Prince Sablé want: 0%
As far as obscure retros go this is pretty much scrapping the bottom of the barrel. Bring him back as an Assist it's fine, but there's no reason to prioritize him as a playable character over so many others.

Predictions:
Isabelle: 52.04%
Shadow: 40.40%
Funky Kong: 21.35%
Octoling: 20.64%

I didn't put predictions yesterday because it looked like I was borderline before the new day would begin before I ended my post, but a good side effect of it is that I could edit my typos without making it look like I'm potentially cheating by editing my predictions.

Nominating:
Returning game mode: Smash Run x5

 

[MasterWarlord]

Retro characters feel like an absolute waste to me with an estiated roster of 5 newcomers, I just can't see it happening. Takamaru at least was requested, these are just Z listers. 0% want for Sable, 5% want for the other two because motorcycles are cool.

I really don't see any of these getting in and don't see much of any factor to differentiate them. One of them may have been considered before, but so was Dixie, who is one of the many, many characters far ahead of this trio. 2% chance for Excitebiker, 0% chance for Sable and Mach Rider.

Nominate Fawful x5

 

[NintenRob]

Excitebiker
Chance 30%
Most likely retro imo. But I'm not even sure we'll get a retro this time, maybe Ice Climbers is enough
Want 60%
The more I consider something likely, the more I generally want it. Although there are exceptions

Mach Rider
Chance 2%
I don't think he has anything over Excitebiker
Want 0%
I'd rather the iconic Excitebiker


Prince Sable
Chance 1%
I just don't see it happening, too obscure.

Predictions
Isabelle 24%
Shadow, 27%
Funky Kong, 14%
and Octolings 31%

Nominate Parabo and Satebo x1
All stages returning x4

 

[Sid-cada]

The Prince of Sable

Chance - 0% - If Takamaru can't get in due to being obscure in the west, what chance does he have? His games were never localized.

Want - 60% - Not super into it, but I think it could be cute.


Exitebiker

Chance - 17% - With Takamaru gone, the most certain retro we had as playable is now gone. Given how tight the roster is, though, that's only enough to make a moderate plus in my opinion. He could make it, though we may not even get a retro this time around.

Want - 65% - I still think he could be interesting. A pure biker moveset is cool.


Mach Rider
Chance - 15% - The two are mostly interchageable. The main difference is that Exitebiker is more famous, while Mach Rider is more clearly geared twoard battle. In the end, I think fame will matter more for Exitebiker than before.

Want - 65% - Honestly the same I would give Exitebiker. I view them as interchangeable.


Predictions

Isabelle - 32.13% - A more stingent roster, but she might make an okay echo...

Shadow - 5.36% - I dunno.

Funky Kong - 13.24% - He might get in as an echo...

Octolings - 5.76% - Echos, maybe...


Nominations

Nihilego X5

 

[-crump-]

At this point, I’m doubting we’ll get a new retro character. Game & Watch, Ice Climbers, Duck Hunt, and R.O.B are all back, and they all do a great job of linking to Nintendo’s past. I know it’s become a pattern to expect a classic character, but with such a limited roster, and the mindset that Sakurai seems to have this time around (full-on fanservice) I don’t believe reviving characters from two completely dead series would be on Sakurai’s mind.
___________________
ExciteBiker
Chance: 25%
The only retro worth talking about at this point. The “Excite” series has seen some relevancy through it’s appearances on the Wii, so it miiight not be a completely dead series. Beyond that, ExciteBike is one of those old games Nintendo really likes to reference now and again, with the most recent, substantial example I can think of being ExciteBike Arena in Mario Kart 8. They clearly haven’t forgotten about this NES title, which is more than can be said for a lot of other “contenders”.
The big thing Excitebiker is missing, though, is popularity. I doubt people voted in droves for this guy during the Ballet Era, and with Sakurai’s emphasis on pleasing fans in Ultimate, he still has quite the hill in his way.

Want: 65%
I’ve always felt that ExciteBiker would make a good Smash character, for some reason. Maybe it’s just because I really like spamming the Wario Bike, and a character who revolves around riding a motorcycle is the natural expansion of that. Also, he seems like the last classic character who is recognizable to the general Nintendo fan who isn’t playable, and I just feel like that should be rectified.

_______________________________

I’m not gonna go into detail about Machrider and Sable, I think they’re almost impossible for the reasons I stated up top.

Mach Rider
Chance: 1%
Want: 18%
The concept of this character and their game is really awesome, and I would like to see a revival at some point. However, I think there are better characters that could fill Ultimate’s limited spaces better.

Prince of Sable
Chance: 1%
Want: Abstain
I know very little about this guy and I don’t really know how to feel about him.

Noms:
Rick/Kine/Coo x5

 

[Troykv]

I hate the fact that I defended Decidueye's support for being more than just a bandwagon. I'm eating those words right now, and they taste like ****. Thankfully he still has a group of dedicated fans that aren't just me, myself, and I. :/
With that in mind, I'll be giving a 1% want for all of today's characters.
With Takamaru eliminated, there is no plausible retro candidate I have any interest in. Retros in general are pretty overrated IMO.
Buuuuut I guess it wouldn't be the end of the world if they got in. I have nothing against them, but I'm not clamoring for them either.

Nominating Susie x5

Personally I'm still prefering him over the other options; Mimikyu is nice and everything; but Decidueye looks so sick and cool; it fits my style that edgy but a bit dorky xDU

 

[Erureido]

I'm abstaining from Prince Sable. I don't have much to say about him to provide an accurate score.

------

Excitebiker

Chance: 10% --> 15%

Much of what I said last time still applies to Excitebiker, though I think his chances have gone up slightly with Takamaru, a major competitor, being reduced to an Assist Trophy does help Excitebiker a bit.

Want: 20% --> 20%

Copy and pasting what I said on Excitebiker's previous day.

The idea of biker in Smash sounds interesting, but Excitebiker isn't my preferred choice for that. That title goes to Mach Rider.

------

Mach Rider

Chance: 10%

He too has the retro appeal much like Excitebiker does, but I feel like competition for the Retro slot affects him much harder, especially when he isn't known very well compared to the likes of Balloon Fighter or the far more iconic Excitebiker.

Want: 65%

This fanmade moveset for Mach Rider sold me on the character as a potential Smash fighter. Still, I've got other characters I'm more interested in seeing.

------

Predictions

Isabelle (Animal Crossing): 54.32%

Something tells me she'll go up with the whole Echo Fighter deal.

Shadow (Sonic the Hedgehog): 26.19%

He feels like he's in a similar boat that Chrom and Dark Samus are in right now, only he has the third party deal to overcome as well.

Funky Kong (Donkey Kong): 16.27%

Also makes sense for an Echo Fighter and has some other credentials going for him too. I can see a slight boost happening.

Octolings (Splatoon): 7.80%

Possible Echo Fighters, but there isn't much of an outcry for them to be playable.

------

Nominations

Only 4-6 newcomers in Smash Ultimate's base roster: x5

 

[Burigu]

Haven't done one of these in years! Brings back memories. I am redacting this with the premise that a retro is NOT mandatory for this game with the few newcomers Sakurai mentioned, I am pretty sure they will prioritize more popular characters for more relevant franchises.

Excite Biker:
Chance: 3%
To be quite honest I see most of the scores WAY to high for him, I mean if Takamaru who is a better (movepool wise) and more popular pick is reduced to AT status again, I don't see why Excite Biker (with a moveset more dificult to pull of) has a better chance. Plus I am not sure if he qualifies for a "retro" rep taking into account that Wii game.

Want: 0%
I am pretty sure Sakurai can pull of miracles and made this guy a likeable character for me but for the time being, he doesn't appeal to me at all.

Mach Rider:
Chance: 5%
Ok I think Mach Rider has a better chance despite his obscurity, because he is actually a retro character, he might even by able to dismount, for some moves.

Want: 15%
To be honest I didn't care for this character either but the fact that some people refer to this character as a she, could made such a reveal, really cool, "see this character that you assumed was a man, she is actually a woman". Not the level of suprise given it has been done in the past with Samus but interesting.

Prince Sable:
Chance: 0%
If Excite Biker is really low in my eyes no way a Japan exclusive has a better chance.

Want: 15%
I find it difficult to care about characters I am unfamiliar with, but I have to say this guy could have a really interesting moveset, probably the most original of this trio.

 

[VexTheHex]

The Retro Boys/Grill (Excitebiker, Mach Rider, and Sable Prince)
All Chance - 8%
I'm not feeling retro now that we seem to be getting indicated this game is focused heavier on fan favorites to be added. With Takamaru being quickly deconfirmed while likely being the most talked about retro... I kind of feel that would of been the pick. There's still a chance of course, but I do think there may be a higher chance for some other sort of oddball rep in similar light to Wii Fit Trainer.
Want
Excitebiker - 25% - Seems a bit dull to me, but they could pull something crazy with him.
Mach Rider - 25% - Don't know much on her overall, but she could be exciting if added.
Sable Prince - 100% - I think the snake and frog aspect could be fun. He's cute and the underdog.

Nominations - 5x Incineroar

I hate the fact that I defended Decidueye's support for being more than just a bandwagon. I'm eating those words right now, and they taste like ****. Thankfully he still has a group of dedicated fans that aren't just me, myself, and I. :/
With that in mind, I'll be giving a 1% want for all of today's characters.
With Takamaru eliminated, there is no plausible retro candidate I have any interest in. Retros in general are pretty overrated IMO.
Buuuuut I guess it wouldn't be the end of the world if they got in. I have nothing against them, but I'm not clamoring for them either.

Nominating Susie x5

Well, I kind of got turned off Decidueye cause of how people acted towards other Pokemon options, but I feel like pointing out something to make you feel better possibly. Most character support is empty band wagoning. I had this conversation with some other posters in regards to Isaac simply since people who fully recognized they didn't know much of anything on Isaac believed he "deserved" to be in Smash and would be unique and whatnot. People hear he/she could be a cool character and deserves to be in Smash and are likely cause they are purple and Sakurai loves purple. Then some of those people repeat this and hype themselves up on it. Suddenly you have people rallying for characters that they may not even know the name of the series they come from or may not know who the main characters actually are in the series.

But to be fair, that's also fine to a degree since it comes with the chance people will play those games or experience those characters. So it isn't all bad and pretty much everyone on here is at least guilty of hopping on some bandwagons. And Decidueye isn't the first or only character to have their wagon hit a rock and crash. Rex & Pyra have taken a pretty large hit in both people expecting them and even wanting them. Sylux, much smaller force, also disappeared from people's minds with Ridley confirmed and everyone jumping on the ECHO EVERYTHING AND EVERYONE bandwagon which includes Dark Samus. Not to mention, Shadow was never viewed to have much of a shot or that popular of a choice... now he is picking up traction. So it happens both ways, heck I even noticed more people being more positive towards Daisy after her confirmation than before. Now that she is in, people are starting to be fans of her more so than before. It happens, every character has those fans/followers. And everyone has a few characters that they are guilty of doing it for. It's just the nature of it.

 

[AquaSol]

None of these newcomers have very big chances. Mach Rider and Excitebiker would be pretty awkward fighters, and I think that Ultimate is going to focus more on fan-demand and big-name picks anyway. Prince Sable would make an interesting addition - we don't have a transforming fighter like that yet. He definitely has lower odds than the other two, though. Overall, I think that all three are from a bygone era and don't stand too great of a chance.

Predictions: Excitebiker @ 20%, Mach Rider @ 10%, Prince Sable @ 5%.
Wants: None in particular. I do think that Sable would make the most interesting and least-awkward fighter, though.

 

[vVv Rapture]

Ice Climbers: 70%

Pichu: 100%
My most wanted veteran. I love him and the new meter + seemingly higher stun on electric moves gives me hope he won't be terrible. That last part might just be placebo from the 20 second trailer on the website though.

Where did you get information that he has a meter? And what is the meter for? I just learned this and have been trying to figure out where this info came from, but to no avail so far.

 

[NintenRob]

Where did you get information that he has a meter? And what is the meter for? I just learned this and have been trying to figure out where this info came from, but to no avail so far.

It's a mistake, when they were talking about Pichu during the direct. One of Green Greens platforms were close to Pichu's info and it looked like he had a metre for something

 

[Al-kīmiyā']

My want scores for all of these are still the same. Are you counting posts where I say this, or do I need to go dig up the posts and copy them?

 

[Deleted member]

Where did you get information that he has a meter? And what is the meter for? I just learned this and have been trying to figure out where this info came from, but to no avail so far.

It's a mistake, when they were talking about Pichu during the direct. One of Green Greens platforms were close to Pichu's info and it looked like he had a metre for something

Yeah it was a mistake on my part. He definitely appears to have some kind of stun though, unless it's just a random trip chance which would suck for getting my hopes up.

 

[Lord-Zero]

Excitebiker

Chance: 2%
- Unlikely.

Want: 2%
- Not really interested.

Mach Rider

Chance: 4%
- Unlikely.

Want: 10%
- It would be a neat concept.

Prince Sable

Chance: 2%
- Unlikely

Want: 5%
- Not a priority but I wouldn’t be upset.


Predictions

Isabelle: 31.5%

Shadow: 39%

Funky Kong: 30%

Octolings: 27%

Nominations

Katrielle Layton (Professor Layton) x4
Neptune (Neptunia Series) x1

 

[slambros]

Excitebiker

Chance: 35%
With Takamaru deconfirmed, Excitebiker takes his place as arguably the most iconic and popular retro rep yet to be included.

Want: 100%
Excitebiker absolutely belongs in Smash. It's a must have.

Mach Rider

Chance: 10%
He was considered way back when, and that could be on his side, but he would definitely be low priority.

Want: Abstain
I don't really know much about Mach Rider.

Prince Sable

Chance: 5%
He's gotten an assist trophy, which is something, but he's got a lot of different forms which would be a lot of development time for a more obscure character. It'd be a stretch.

Want: 50%
I guess he seems like he'd be neat.

Nominations:
Ryu Hayabusa x5
(If he's already scheduled or something like that, you can transfer the votes to 9-Volt.)

 

[Capybara Gaming]

Excitebiker
Chance: 5% - Unlike other characters, Sakurai's given us a legitimate reason as to why he passed up on this character who was only considered for Melee. He'd need ramps just to jump. There's literally nothing that makes him unique or special, either. He doesn't wield a weapon, and never gets off his bike, both aspects that the next character have...
Want: 0% - Never cared for Excitebike, plus the assist trophy role is perfectly fine for them.

Mach Rider
Chance: 10% - Like Excitebiker, was only considered for Melee, but unlike Excitebiker, Mach Rider has a weapon and thus a way to make him more unique and actually fighter, and he's actually seen off his bike, so he wouldn't need special ramps to jump. That said, his moveset would have to be almost completely made up and we have enough characters like that already. He'd probably be pretty generic...
Want: 25% - With Takamaru dead, any retro rep is gonna pour salt in my wound, so eh... besides, we've already got guns (Bayonetta) and motorcycles (Wario) covered.

Prince Sablé
Chance: 15% - At least he's been acknowledged by Sakurai, they have a 3D design to work with (which is more than Excitebiker can say...) and he actually has something that could make him unique - his transformations. I still doubt his chances as he doesn't really have popularity on his side. A possible surprise pick, but I doubt it.
Want: 25% - I never got the love for him either, but at least he'd bring something new to Smash.

TCT~Phantom can we please get that updated nom list so I know what I should nominate? All these characters getting bumped up has completely messed me up.

Nominations:
Sakura Shinguji x5 (Unless she's already scheduled)
Chun-Li Assist Trophy (If Sakura is already scheduled)

 

[Gerrothorax]

Excitebiker Chance: 20%
Eeasily the most iconic of all three and he'd have a unique moveset.
Mach Rider Chance: 4%
Essentially Excitebiker but less iconic.
Prince Sable Chance: 1%
If Takamaru wasn't able to get in than this guy won't either.
Abstain from want.
Nominations: Thwomp x5

 

[TheFritzle]

Excitebiker:
Chance: 35%
Excitebiker is the last retro rep with a notable profile. After E3 deconfirmed character after character, including retro rep front-runner Takamaru, Excitebiker may actually have a chance. Despite being a retro character, Excitebike is still relevant and makes cameos all the time like with Mario Kart 8. Excitebiker also presents a unique fighting style, always being on his bike. Excitebiker has a legacy that a lot of other retro reps don't have, and has enough history to be worthy of Smash. Sakurai has explained why Excitebiker isn't a character, but he also originally dismissed Villager, Pac-Man, Miis, and most recently Ridley, so if he really wanted to I bet he could find a way.

Want: 60%
I really like the prospect of having a fighter always on his vehicle. I think he could have a really cool moveset and playstyle not already represented on the roster. He always definitely deserves to be added, but he isn't my first pick when it comes to a motorcycle riding character.

Mach Rider:
Chance: 20%
If Sakurai really can't get Excitebiker to work, I think he may consider another motocycle riding character, which is Mach Rider. Although while not that well known, Mach Rider does have a legacy. Mach Rider inspired many of NES games to come, including F-Zero. Mach Rider really is an underground retro character, and could function as both the retro and WTF character. Mach Rider always has a weapon. She uses a pistol and other weapons like chains. Her fighting style is already there. I could see Mach Rider being considered if Excitebiker just would not work, and I personally am predicting her being added in this game.

Want: 100%
I've never played Mach Rider, but she looks really cool. I'm a fan of the idea of a motocycle riding character. She really doesn't bring too much unique on its own, but I think the mash up of a vehicle, a gun, and other weapons would make a unique character.

Prince Sablé:
Chance: 5%
I think Takamaru's de-confirmation hit his chances the hardest. Prince Sablé is even more of an obscure Japanese exclusive character than Takamaru. I really can't see a timeline where Prince Sablé gets in over Takamaru. Sablé may have a unique moveset, but I don't see any reason as to why he would be pushed over some of the deconfirmed characters or other retro picks.

Want: 50%
I don't care either way. Never played his game, never heard of him until his assist back in Sm4sh.

 

[Starbound]

Excitebiker: 10% chance / 60% want

Unlikely due to the jumping issue, but a bike as a weapon would be legitimately cool with some creative liberties. Plus it could jump with its feet... because it's a person... on a bike.

Mach Rider: 10% chance / 60% want

Probably won't ride a bike, but I want him just because I love Mach Rider music. Maybe a Falcon echo? ...But I really want the gun.

Sable: 0% chance / 0% want

Stance changing gimmick is done by Pokemon Trainer now, and he's too obscure if even Takamaru isn't being considered again.

 

[andimidna]

Excitebiker:
If there’s a retro, I’d probably bank on him or a random echo or a pick that’s supposed to be completely out of the blue. With so few characters left that feel like they really *need* to be in this game pre-DLC, I’m not at the point of saying I’m sure there will be no retro character. However, it is less likely now than ever for sure. With the less newcomers and all- it’s already been said in above posts. As a side note, no pick will ever be as iconic as Duck Hunt tbh
Chance: 17%
Decently recognizable but not extremely. Also an interesting concept
Want: 65%

Mach Rider:
A less recognizable retro biker with a bit more moves. Eh, I don’t see why anything he could do couldn’t be borrowed for the concept of Excitebiker and put on a more recognizable name. Villager has a Balloon Fight up b, y’know what I mean?
Chance: 4%
Want: 50%
I think excitebiker makes more sense, but I don’t really care

Prince Sable:
An assist we haven’t seen yet. Interesting concept, but I expect the assist again. Also, all the things said before
Chance: 5%
People could actually recognize him thanks to the assist. 2 characters can employ the same gimmick in different movesets
Want: 60%

Predictions:
Isabelle: 40%
Marketable like Ashley with little effort required, I bet it’ll rise
Funky: 24%
Lowkey gonna be overrated again. Show me K Rool and Dixie first
Octolings: 25%
Shadow: 23%
It’s still not their job to give extra promo to 3rd party series, just the main character with the star power and weight of the crossover merely existing. Just saying in advance before I way underestimate how much people want him tomorrow

x4 Hanafuda character
x1 Style Savvy character

 

[Smasher 101]

Excitebiker

Chance: 15%
(Previous score: 10%)

With Takamaru gone, I now think Excitebiker is the most likely retro character, so he gets a bit of a boost. His game is one of the more notable NES titles and the series has shown up from time to time, and has several cameos. A problem is that he was shot down once before, though in this very game we've already seen Sakurai include a character he's turned down before, so it's not impossible for him to do it again. It's possible he can make it work. That said, I'm not ranking him higher than this because with the info we got I think we're most likely not going to get a new retro character this time.

Want: 70%

No change here. I'd find a biker character to be pretty interesting and he's a solid retro pick. I still like Mach Rider a bit more though.

Mach Rider

Chance: 3%

The game had a cool music track in Melee. That's about it. The game's just not quite as remembered as well as other titles, and as far as bikers go Excitebike is more notable and has more of a legacy. I could only see this happening if Sakurai really likes the idea of a retro biker and just can't make Excitebiker work, but in that scenario I see him just dropping the idea.

Want: 80%

Like I said above, I would be down for a bike character and I find Mach Rider to be more interesting. Probably my first choice for a NES era retro.

Sable Prince

Chance: 1%

I thought he was lucky to get an assist last time, honestly. Takamaru was passed up last game for not being recognizable enough outside of Japan, and is still out this time. And he's had a few appearances outside of his game + a localization. The prince has it even worse because his game hasn't received any release outside of Japan and is far more obscure. So if Takamaru can't get in this guy doesn't have a shot. I don't think his assist trophy being missing does enough to help in this case.

Want: 50%

He's cute and I would like to play his game. I'm iffy on his gimmick, though.

Predictions
Isabelle: 59.28%
Funky Kong: 23.38%
Octoling: 27.42%
Shadow: 19.71%

Nominations: Tails x5

 

[wildvine47]

Excitebiker

Chance: 40% - Pretty big jump for this excited exerciser. Takamaru being left behind in the Assist Trophy pile makes the classic biker one of the last NES reps with a worthwhile pedigree. Sure Sakurai turned him down before for concerns as to how he'd jump, but we literally just had Ridley get confirmed. You know, the character Sakurai pretty much pulled the "Too Big" card on last game? A quibble from around 17 years ago won't stop him from changing his mind or finding a new solution. The only obstacle in Excitebiker's way is a mud puddle.

Well, and the potential trend-breaking possibility that we won't get a retro rep this time. If Sakurai really is focusing on fan-favorites this time around, retros don't really tend to fall into that category. Sakurai may well treat this roster differently than prior ones. If he wants more bang for his buck, we might not see a retro join this time, but if we do, I'm now expecting Excitebiker to wheelie his way into the roster.

Want: 70% - Of the retro reps he's a great choice. A bike-based moveset would be really unique and fun to play, and he's definitely one of the most notable NES characters not playable thus far. Plus, I have some strong nostalgic feelings towards Excitebiker. I remember playing an arcade cabinet version in a Domino's Pizza restaurant regularly as a kid. To see the biker join Smash and rekindle those memories would be fantastic, but when it comes down to brass tacks, there's plenty of other characters I'd prioritize over him.

Mach Rider

Chance: 10% - Mach Rider honestly reads like a gritty Excitebiker reboot that came 30 years early. A desert drifter that careens around a post-apocalyptic planet on her suped-up motorcycle, blowing up oil drums, fighting other kitted-out rides, and rescuing survivors.

Wait, is Mach Rider set in the Mad Max universe?

Jokes aside, Mach suffers from a pretty bad case of overlap. If she were to be added faithfully, she'd have to have a fully motorcycle-based moveset. With Excitebiker being able to provide almost exactly the same concept, minus guns and Mach's weird self-disintegration abilities, she's outclassed. Excitebiker is by far the bigger name amongst the NES offerings, and while she has cooler moveset options, she's seriously lacking in iconicity compared to her fellow retro rider. There's no way we'd get two bike-centric movesets at the same time, so I see Excitebiker getting picked over her in almost every scenario. Unless Sakurai really falls in love with this gun-toting, atomizing, NES-borne heroine's moveset potential, I think she's out of luck.

Sable Prince

Chance: 5% - Man, poor kid. His Assist Trophy is missing, but unlike other missing Assists, this one feels less notable. There's no one he'd make sense to be an echo of, and he's not really a big enough deal to get promoted to being a fully unique newcomer like Little Mac was. Sakurai clearly has a soft spot for the game considering the references throughout the series, and he'd certainly be the kind of oddball retro that Sakurai loves to bring into the spotlight, but I think his lucky appearance as an AT was the extent of that. Being a Japanese-only character from a single Gameboy game is a tough position when thus far, retro characters have been neither of those. There's a first time for everything, but for now, were Sable Prince to get in, he'd be a convention-breaking surprise, and not someone to put your betting money on by any means.

Want: 51% - I have a friend who'd love to see him, but that's about where my interest in the character ends. Snake and Frog transformations do nothing for me in terms of interest in a moveset, and since I didn't grow up in Japan, I have no attachment to the character or game. The assist trophy role seems like a perfect fit for him, and I do really like seeing that cartoony dustcloud appear when he rushes in to beat on someone. Hopefully his assist trophy is at least still in the game, and just hasn't been added yet.

Predictions

Isabelle: 44.44%
Shadow: 20.05%
Funky Kong: 39.67%
Octolings: 23.82%

Big day for echoes tomorrow eh? Isabelle definitely sits better with me as a Villager echo rather than anything unique, as does Funky (And Tom Nook as well for that matter. He could even share the slot with Isabelle.) Still not entirely comfortable or confident in the idea of a third party echo; something about it just doesn't sit right with me, Shadow especially so. Octolings are an interesting case, as they only very recently got a large prominence bump to playable status, definitely too late to affect Smash Ultimate. The story mode enemy Octolings, however, would work quite well as an echo, but I'm not sure they're notable enough just based on that to enter Smash. For some reason the discussion on them makes me think back to when Eggplant Wizard was a semi-popular pick - they're just a generic enemy that happens to be slightly more notable. This case is a bit different considering the Inklings themselves are a generic race, as well as the Echo factor, but it still leaves a similar taste in my mouth.

Nominations

Scorpion x 5

 

[Deleted member]

Excitebiker
Chance: 15%
Want: 0%

Mach Rider
Chance: 20%
Want: 20%

Prince Sable
Chance: 20%
Want: 30%


Noms:
Female announcer x5