Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[Sid-cada]

For those not in the know, I posted discussion on how Lycanroc's concept art is unappealing for trying to pick a fighter. Go check it out if you wish.

 

[MasterWarlord]

While stock in advertisements has gone down, Pokemon has no alternative but advertisements. Still, with Ivysaur, Squirtle, and Pichu, it is now becoming a lot more possible that we just don't get a Pokemon character. I'm still leaning that we do get one, but the stock of these folks has gone down significantly.

Decidueye Chance 10%: Decidueye is pretty killed by Ivysaur getting rid of this arbitrary desire to complete a grass/water/fire with Greninja and Charizard. That's one of the main things that made him really stick out to make the Pokemon section feel complete. The main thing he really has going for him is his playable Pokken appearance. Ash is apparently never going to evolve his Decidueye prevolution because of it being more popular, so it's not getting a big anime boost. His popularity was average at best and was mostly bandwagon mentality over him being likely. The main thing he has going for him is being the generic """""""""""cool""""""""""" humanoid of the group following the equally """""""""""cool""""""""""" Lucario and Greninja. Sakurai's taste suggests he would pick this one over the other two candidates, but that's the main thing he has going in his favor really.

Decidueye Want 8%: He is easily the best of his archetype and I vastly prefer him to Greninja and Lucario, but that's not saying much. Would much rather have Incineroar, who is basically never discussed as a viable candidate.

Mimikyu Chance 40%: This would be higher if not for the abundance of Pokemon and the lack of newcomers being added. Mimikyu would almost undoubtedly be a Pokeball Pokemon if he was in given his gimmick translates very well to one, so it says a lot he wasn't shown as one. He has plenty of moveset potential with tentacles to be playable, so that's not an issue. He is very heavily promoted, much moreso than the other candidates, and has a lot more genuine popularity than them. Most of Decidueye's fandom comes exclusively from the Smash fandom rather than the Pokemon fanbase at large.

Mimikyu Want 60%: Evil parody of a tired mascot? Sign me up.

Lycanroc Chance 3.5%: This Pokemon is the only one of the three with a true hatedom, with a lot of people saying it's incredibly boring because of being a recolor. Anyway, aside from promoting Sun and Moon 2 which it is probably too late for, his main thing is his role in the anime, which also seems too late. A gen 7 Pokemon would probably be in the base roster if it's in, so I'm putting really low stock in this guy. Very few people I've seen actively want this thing, it's just predicted. Sakurai is generally queasy about quadrupeds too, and this thing is a lot more difficult to work with than a tentacle monster. Mimikyu also still has a very large anime role anyway, and had it sooner in the season before Lycanroc became a thing, during the relevant time period for Smash.

Lycanroc Want 0%: Generic dog that is rock type for no real reason, with his most famous form being an orange recolor of itself. Almost exclusively an anime rep. The night form would be a lot better for Smash and looks kind of cool (Even if it's bizarre it's Rock and not Dark), but it would absolutely be the midday orange recolor form if it's in, so that's what this want score is for.

Nominate Fawful x5

 

[CaptainAmerica]

One question that I have - maybe better suited for the Trainer thread...

Does Type Mechanics return?

I still don't understand why people are arguing "Ivysaur filled the grass Pokemon quota" in the same way that Squirtle prevented Greninja form returning since we already had a water type. Smash has never worked on quotas, otherwise we would be arguing about who DK newcomer number 5 would be. I do have to wonder though since we've now got three water-based characters (Squirt, Gren, and Corrin), that could start to make the Type Effectiveness mechanic more fair if it returns.

Brawl suffered from everyone in the cast having a fire move, which put Ivy at a disadvantage, while really nobody used water or especially grass. Now that water is more ubiquitous, could they also be thinking of adding more grass moves to balance it out? I guess Villager's tree could be counted as grass, but I don't really see anything else in the current cast. Perhaps then the inclusion of Type Effectiveness would increase Deci's odds for the exact reason people argue his odds have decreased.

Of course all of this is moot if type effectiveness is out, but it's just a thought...

 

[PsychoIncarnate]

I feel like if they want to add a new Pokemon, they would go for a Gen 8 mon. It might be a little early, depending on when Gen 8 comes out next year. But this does come out December and gen 8 will be the big game next gen.

If any of them get in, I feel it'll be Decidueye. But he's not even on Ash's team. I don't think they are going to go for that.

Chance 15% Decidueye
Chance 0% Mimikyu
Chance 0% Lycanroc

want 75% Decidueye
want 0% Mimikyu
want 0% Lycanroc

 

[MasterWarlord]

One question that I have - maybe better suited for the Trainer thread...

Does Type Mechanics return?

I still don't understand why people are arguing "Ivysaur filled the grass Pokemon quota" in the same way that Squirtle prevented Greninja form returning since we already had a water type. Smash has never worked on quotas, otherwise we would be arguing about who DK newcomer number 5 would be. I do have to wonder though since we've now got three water-based characters (Squirt, Gren, and Corrin), that could start to make the Type Effectiveness mechanic more fair if it returns.

Brawl suffered from everyone in the cast having a fire move, which put Ivy at a disadvantage, while really nobody used water or especially grass. Now that water is more ubiquitous, could they also be thinking of adding more grass moves to balance it out? I guess Villager's tree could be counted as grass, but I don't really see anything else in the current cast. Perhaps then the inclusion of Type Effectiveness would increase Deci's odds for the exact reason people argue his odds have decreased.

Of course all of this is moot if type effectiveness is out, but it's just a thought...

It's an interesting thought, but with the terrible stamina mechanic from Pokemon Trainer removed (at least from what I've heard), I think Sakurai would be smart enough to get rid of the type mechanics too.

Fire is generally the most popular of the types traditionally. If we theoretically add Decidueye, now we for some reason have 2 grass, 2 water, and 1 fire, and we are now obligated to throw in another fire down the line at some point. This starter typing nonsense is turning into a never-ending cycle that would be better off getting nipped in the bud. This was the big reason everybody gravitated towards him. This was enough of a thing people were so desperate they were legitimately suggesting a Pokemon as random as Sceptile before Decidueye came along.

 

[Delzethin]

For those not in the know, I posted discussion on how Lycanroc's concept art is unappealing for trying to pick a fighter. Go check it out if you wish.

And I replied, explaining how the base concept art we've seen couldn't have been all they rely on and wouldn't have been as crucial this time around as it was with Gen 6 last time.

After all, it'd be a shame if a book was judged by its cover, wouldn't you say?

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Lycanroc

80% Chance

To be honest, I am pretty convinced this will be the gen 7 rep. For starters, I do not care if there are limited spots, pokemon always gets a spot. And due to anime prevelence, merchandise, and having a good degree of popularity, I feel lycanroc has a good chance.

Mimikyu

35% Chance

OK so I could see Mimikyu happening as well, but the thing that tips this way in Lycanrocs corner is the fact it is ash’s signature mon in alola. Like Mimikyu is in the show, but is it ash’s? Nope. It’s popular and iconic, but idk if that is enough.

Decidueye
10% Chance

Well, I am in the camp that views Ivysaur being back as such a hurting factor to him. He literally loses his main gimmick of finishing the starter type trio. You can say he has moveset potential but I do not think that counts.

100% Want

I love them all. They all are super cool noms. Easily my top 3 mons in the region.

Nominating Concept: SR388 stage x 5

 

[Starbound]

I really don't think Sakurai gives a damn about Pokemon typings except in the case of Pokemon Trainer. We have 2 Water-types in this game and they fight incredibly differently. It's not like he feels obligated to ensure type balance in his game when each fighter fights differently independently of the type - and the type enhances what the Pokemon already does.

Pikachu is a quick, hit and run character. Jigglypuff has been a recurring joke character (not to say it's a bad character, but it's more into just messing around). Mewtwo's gimmick is telepathic powers. Pichu is memez. Pokemon Trainer is stance fighter. Lucario is a comeback character and Greninja is a ninja. The type has nothing to do with the character concept, but rather helps flesh out what makes the character work.

This type equality thing needs to just die because it's never been something that actually matters.

 

[StrangeMann]

I really don't think Sakurai gives a damn about Pokemon typings except in the case of Pokemon Trainer. We have 2 Water-types in this game and they fight incredibly differently. It's not like he feels obligated to ensure type balance in his game when each fighter fights differently independently of the type - and the type enhances what the Pokemon already does.

Pikachu is a quick, hit and run character. Jigglypuff has been a recurring joke character (not to say it's a bad character, but it's more into just messing around). Mewtwo's gimmick is telepathic powers. Pichu is memez. Pokemon Trainer is stance fighter. Lucario is a comeback character and Greninja is a ninja. The type has nothing to do with the character concept, but rather helps flesh out what makes the character work.

This type equality thing needs to just die because it's never been something that actually matters.

I think of it as more of a desert than a main course for a pokemon newcomer: The main course being the marketing push and in game qualities of said pokemon, the typing being an afterthought by comparison. All 3 pokemon newcomers have nice qualities for a playable character in my opinion, but all of them have identity issues with other smash characters (mimikyu and pikachu/pichu, Lycanroc and DHD/Fox/Wolf/Lucario, and decidueye with the other archers in smash)

 

[VexTheHex]

Did people forget that not only did the return of Pokemon Trainer dampen Decidueye's reign as the "one and only" option, but that means both Primarina and Incineror got a boost in possibility? Especially Incineror? Seems people are are still dead set on Decidueye v Mimikyu v Lycanroc and are ignoring the truth is a Gen 7 newcomer could come from anywhere! Ultra Beasts, Alolan Marowak, and even something like Oricorio (reps all islands and culture!) could surprise us in the end.

As much as people argue about these 3, I do think Incineroar benefited the most out of all this. He is very expressive even in his concept art with a unique wrestler motif. Promoted a decent amount. And there's no longer the "Needs Grass" argument.

Decidueye - How the mighty have fallen
Chance - 10%
This bird took the biggest hit of them all with all veterans coming back. His biggest push was representing the 3rd type, and now that has been shot down with Ivysaur reclaiming his position in the roster. His concept artwork shows him shooting a arrow and that's about it. Link, Pit, Toon Link, Dark Pit, and Young Link do that to. Moving on, Decidueye is less popular than his fellow starter's final stages while also sporting less marketing push than any other Pokemon. He does have a shot, but it is nowhere near a coin flip.
Want - 0%
I've decide I want the "one and only" option to fail in the end. Not too big on this push that he has been and clearly always has been the most deserving and unique one. He is not. He is cool all around, but he has very little going for him over his comrades and yet his comrades get quickly blasted down by the Decidueye bandwagoning.

Mimikyu - Oh, you fell to my little ghost
Chance - 20%
While one of his most frequent brought up competition took a major blow in his bandwagon wheels, Mimikyu got slapped as well. Pichu return. While Mimikyu and Pikachu would of been fine, I'd worry Mimikyu AND Pichu would have issues. To me, they look more alike than the former to and could be too similar. But alas, we do have 3 Links and 2 Pits.
Want - 75%
Not sure how big I'm on the idea of 3 Pikachus. But we do have 3 Links, 2 Samus with people wanting a 3rd, 2 Pits, and 4 Marios. Maybe it's not that big of a deal? I like Mimikyu as a Ghost pokemon more than Decidueye by a landslide. But I'm less certain I'd want Mimikyu even as the superior looking Ghost cause of Pichu.

Lycanroc
Chance - 10%
I'm still having trouble seeing Lycanroc making it in, but I guess it does get promotional stuff. That being said, I still think someone with more flair would be choosen.
Want - 15%
I always found it's design lackluster. I like Rockruff, but Lycanroc is just meh. I'd prefer something that has more bang for it's buck.



Nominations 5x Incineroar

For those not in the know, I posted discussion on how Lycanroc's concept art is unappealing for trying to pick a fighter. Go check it out if you wish.

Incineroar wins the concept artwork potential. Primarina would follow next, but I feel Incineroar had the most love put in there.

 

[MasterWarlord]

I really don't think Sakurai gives a damn about Pokemon typings except in the case of Pokemon Trainer. We have 2 Water-types in this game and they fight incredibly differently. It's not like he feels obligated to ensure type balance in his game when each fighter fights differently independently of the type - and the type enhances what the Pokemon already does.

Pikachu is a quick, hit and run character. Jigglypuff has been a recurring joke character (not to say it's a bad character, but it's more into just messing around). Mewtwo's gimmick is telepathic powers. Pichu is memez. Pokemon Trainer is stance fighter. Lucario is a comeback character and Greninja is a ninja. The type has nothing to do with the character concept, but rather helps flesh out what makes the character work.

This type equality thing needs to just die because it's never been something that actually matters.

I'm not going not going to pretend it's some end all be all. Absolutely not. Using it as a negative point against somebody isn't the best of ideas.

The issue is, before, it was an active positive point for Decidueye, one of his most flaunted, and now that's been taken away from him.

 

[StrangeMann]

Did people forget that not only did the return of Pokemon Trainer dampen Decidueye's reign as the "one and only" option, but that means both Primarina and Incineror got a boost in possibility? Especially Incineror? Seems people are are still dead set on Decidueye v Mimikyu v Lycanroc and are ignoring the truth is a Gen 7 newcomer could come from anywhere! Ultra Beasts, Alolan Marowak, and even something like Oricorio (reps all islands and culture!) could surprise us in the end.

As much as people argue about these 3, I do think Incineroar benefited the most out of all this. He is very expressive even in his concept art with a unique wrestler motif. Promoted a decent amount. And there's no longer the "Needs Grass" argument.

Decidueye - How the mighty have fallen
Chance - 10%
This bird took the biggest hit of them all with all veterans coming back. His biggest push was representing the 3rd type, and now that has been shot down with Ivysaur reclaiming his position in the roster. His concept artwork shows him shooting a arrow and that's about it. Link, Pit, Toon Link, Dark Pit, and Young Link do that to. Moving on, Decidueye is less popular than his fellow starter's final stages while also sporting less marketing push than any other Pokemon. He does have a shot, but it is nowhere near a coin flip.
Want - 0%
I've decide I want the "one and only" option to fail in the end. Not too big on this push that he has been and clearly always has been the most deserving and unique one. He is not. He is cool all around, but he has very little going for him over his comrades and yet his comrades get quickly blasted down by the Decidueye bandwagoning.

Mimikyu - Oh, you fell to my little ghost
Chance - 20%
While one of his most frequent brought up competition took a major blow in his bandwagon wheels, Mimikyu got slapped as well. Pichu return. While Mimikyu and Pikachu would of been fine, I'd worry Mimikyu AND Pichu would have issues. To me, they look more alike than the former to and could be too similar. But alas, we do have 3 Links and 2 Pits.
Want - 75%
Not sure how big I'm on the idea of 3 Pikachus. But we do have 3 Links, 2 Samus with people wanting a 3rd, 2 Pits, and 4 Marios. Maybe it's not that big of a deal? I like Mimikyu as a Ghost pokemon more than Decidueye by a landslide. But I'm less certain I'd want Mimikyu even as the superior looking Ghost cause of Pichu.

Lycanroc
Chance - 10%
I'm still having trouble seeing Lycanroc making it in, but I guess it does get promotional stuff. That being said, I still think someone with more flair would be choosen.
Want - 15%
I always found it's design lackluster. I like Rockruff, but Lycanroc is just meh. I'd prefer something that has more bang for it's buck.



Nominations 5x Incineroar



Incineroar wins the concept artwork potential. Primarina would follow next, but I feel Incineroar had the most love put in there.

Mimikyu and Incineroar have the best concept art IMO, with Decidueye and Primarina coming close behind. Lycanroc has kind of poor concept art imo.

Really good and creative concept art for Incineroar here.

^This one I know is real, This is really high quality concept art of Mimikyu, and the design is mostly preserved. There's also another dubious piece of concept art floating around the internet...

^I think this may be anime concept art or concept art of the z-move? Or it may be fake but not 100% sure, but this would be a WAY different design, with mimikyu itself being much more active.

EDIT: Reading up more on the image above, it was "leaked" concept art of Mimikyu prior to Mimikyu getting a Z-Move in Pokemon Ultra Sun and Ultra Moon. The image on the bottom left almost perfectly matches the animation Mimikyu has when casting it's Z-move below

I originally assumed that this was a legitimate leak, but apparently the image was produced after the earlier sun/moon trailers where the Z-move was shown, and the other images were based on it. So the second image is just fanart.

ALSO, if anyone has information for promotion of the Sun/Moon and Ultra Sun/Ultra Moon Pokemon near the release of those games in 2016, It might be greatly useful in theorizing roster selection during that time period.

 

[VexTheHex]

Mimikyu and Incineroar have the best concept art IMO, with Decidueye and Primarina coming close behind. Lycanroc has kind of poor concept art imo.

Tbh, I wasn't overly open to the other two starters till Pokemon Trainer was confirmed. But truly do feel both Primarina and Incineroar beat the others in how unique Sakurai could take them. Beefy fire wrestler cat and elegant water singing siren are both a lot more open ended than the flying archer which is Pit. Mimikyu is evil doll which could be appealing, but the first concept art is rather one note. The anime one is good though. And Lycanroc is a canine, the end for it's art.

I lean to Incineroar over Primarina, but I think both have a decent shot. And I honestly think they could both out perform the popular 3 picks quite easily in what they could bring to the table.

 

[StrangeMann]

Tbh, I wasn't overly open to the other two starters till Pokemon Trainer was confirmed. But truly do feel both Primarina and Incineroar beat the others in how unique Sakurai could take them. Beefy fire wrestler cat and elegant water singing siren are both a lot more open ended than the flying archer which is Pit. Mimikyu is evil doll which could be appealing, but the first concept art is rather one note. The anime one is good though. And Lycanroc is a canine, the end for it's art.

I lean to Incineroar over Primarina, but I think both have a decent shot. And I honestly think they could both out perform the popular 3 picks.

I would agree for Inceneroar but disagree for Primarina
I did some research on the lower concept art, and it looks like it was genuine concept art but only a part of it was actually used (the z-move cast matching the bottom left corner), thus it may have been partially used concept art of a new move or a z-move, but either way it looks like it was faked. I edited my previous post with this information.

 

[Erureido]

So how exactly were all those previously rated characters chosen for that rerate schedule we'll be doing for the next two weeks?

Because I was quite surprised to see Professor Layton showing up for a rerate all of a sudden when I haven't any nominations for him to be re-rated, nor have I seen any call him overrated when we did that overrated/underrated day.

Anyways...

Decidueye

Chance: 25%

I forgot to rate Decidueye when his day was up back then, but I used to think Decidueye was pretty likely seeing its popularity and its inclusion into Pokken. Now, with how little newcomers we'll probably get on the base roster combined with the Ivysaur's return, I don't think Decidueye is as likely as I used to think it is. Yes, typing means nothing when it comes to chances, but seeing how a lot of Decidueye's Smash support came from completing the Starter type trio, I feel like people won't think Decidueye is as likely as it used to.

We could have another Greninja situation where Decidueye is chosen based on its concept art, so perhaps that's a possibility. Of course, it still has to compete with other popular Alola Pokemon such as the other Alola starters, the other two Alola Pokemon we are rating, Tapu Koko, and several others.

Want: 80%

Decidueye may be less likely now, but I still support its inclusion. It's a pretty cool Pokemon with an awesome design, and I think it could bring a lot to Smash with an Archer-based moveset.

------

Lycanroc

Chance: 50% --> 35%

I think it has the slight edge over Decidueye based on how much more promotion it gets nowadays, being Ash's main Pokemon right now and that whole Dusk Lycanroc promotion that happened with USUM. It feels less likely now though for similar reasons to Decidueye minus the whole typing deal, though if concept art is anything to go by, that might just hinder it as well as Sid-cada suggested.

Want: 75% --> 75%

Copy and pasting what I said on Lycanroc's previous day.

The Midday Form of Lycanroc is one of my top 10 favorite Pokemon, and it served me well in my experience using it in Sun. Though I haven't used the Dusk Lycanroc when it was released in USUM, I do like its design. Midnight Lycanroc on the other hand... not a fan of it at all.

So looking at three forms, I'd be cool with Midday or the Dusk Form being chosen but opposed to the Midnight Form. Even then, Lycanroc isn't my top pick for an Alola Pokemon rep. That title goes to Primarina.

------

Mimikyu

Chance: 50% --> 35%

Basically in the same boat as Lycanroc is in terms of where it stands compared to the other Alola reps. From promotion and concept art alone, it seems like the kind of Pokemon Sakurai will pick. Like with Decidueye and Lycanroc, the chance score decrease comes from my recent skepticism about the addition of another Pokemon rep. Perhaps this score will go up like with the other Alola Pokemon. We'll see how things develop.

Want: 5% --> 5%

Copy and pasting what I said on Lycanroc's previous day.

Admittedly, I'm not a big fan of Mimikyu. It's design never really did much for me despite being innovative. The only thing I like about Mimikyu is its competitive potential where Disguise makes a great ability for all those Battle Tree and online battles. Thus, I don't have much interest seeing it in Smash. I do see its unique potential as a Smash fighter, especially if Sakurai can find a way to make Disguise work, so that's where the 5% comes from.

------

Nominations

Only 4-6 newcomers in Smash Ultimate's base roster: x5

 

[Delzethin]

I really don't think Sakurai gives a damn about Pokemon typings except in the case of Pokemon Trainer. We have 2 Water-types in this game and they fight incredibly differently. It's not like he feels obligated to ensure type balance in his game when each fighter fights differently independently of the type - and the type enhances what the Pokemon already does.

Pikachu is a quick, hit and run character. Jigglypuff has been a recurring joke character (not to say it's a bad character, but it's more into just messing around). Mewtwo's gimmick is telepathic powers. Pichu is memez. Pokemon Trainer is stance fighter. Lucario is a comeback character and Greninja is a ninja. The type has nothing to do with the character concept, but rather helps flesh out what makes the character work.

This type equality thing needs to just die because it's never been something that actually matters.

While it's true there's no such thing as "type equality", much less that "we need to complete the starter triangle" nonsense, Pokémon characters' typings do tie directly into what abilities they have. We know Sakurai puts strong emphasis on uniqueness, and so having a unique typing helps toward that just by meaning the Pokémon in question will be swinging around elements that no one else does.

So while being the second character with plant powers isn't a huge issue in a vacuum, especially if you have a few other rare or unique traits, it can present problems when your direct competition is built around an element that is completely absent from the roster and also has rare or unique traits of their own on top of that. The former isn't screwed, but the latter sure comes off as more interesting in comparison.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

And I replied, explaining how the base concept art we've seen couldn't have been all they rely on and wouldn't have been as crucial this time around as it was with Gen 6 last time.

After all, it'd be a shame if a book was judged by its cover, wouldn't you say?

However, there are good points made. If the roster was finalized around summer 16, the games were just about to release so concept art is pretty well all Sakurai had to go on.

And Greninja got in specifically because the book was judged by its cover.

Not that anything’s impossible, but we do know Pokémon is judged by appearance to a much greater extent than other series. And if Lycanroc’s major popularity boosted with USUM - that’s where he got the dusk form and Z-move - we’re looking at a release of Nov 2017, which honestly puts him in the same realm as Rex/Pyra.

Just playing devil’s advocate. Honestly, I got back the one Pokémon I wanted, so I’m not really supporting any of these three much.

 

[ProfPeanut]

Pokemon Rerates

Chances:
Decidueye: 20%
Lycanroc: 35%
Mimikyu: 25%

"There's definitely going to be a Pokemon rep," we say, but I'm not so certain about that anymore. Used to be that with so many valid Pokemon to choose from this time around, each with their own strengths and shortcomings, we could see the presumably inevitable final pick as a better gauge for what Sakurai likes. After all, there's always a Pokemon newcomer!

Except...now that the space for newcomers is tighter than ever, there's the remote possibility that we might not actually get one this time. None of the Gen 7 candidates seem stand out enough to be a good Pokemon fighter, let alone a new character in general. Decidueye has no official backing, Lycanroc has schizophrenia, Tapu Koko is being slept on by everyone, the UBs can't decide who among them should have the spot, and Mimikyu lends itself too much as a Pokeball 'mon.

Which begs the question: why have a new Pokemon at all, when there's already nine distinct Pokemon characters in the roster to worry about? That's three more than Fire Emblem, including echo fighters! If Sakurai doesn't see any of the Gen 7 candidates as particularly appealing, he might want to instead spend the time balancing Pichu, who's still going to have his self-damage mechanic, or making sure that both Squirtle and Ivysaur are viable. Logistically speaking, aren't there enough playable Pokemon?

Still, it'd feel pretty weird not picking a new fighter from the only series that continuously offers new concepts for Sakurai to pick from, especially since none of them are particularly impossible to create a Smash moveset for. If they absolutely had to pick one, then Lycanroc looks to have the most to boast about from a popularity standpoint alone, which is how playable Pokemon are usually chosen.


Want:
Decidueye: 75%
Lycanroc: 0%
Mimikyu: 70%

But honestly, Lycanroc doesn't do anything for me as a Smash candidate. Standout dog of the gen that he might be, he has about as much personality as dirt, except for Midnight's emo werewolf vibe. We already have the Duck Hunt dog if we want to play as a dog, and Wolf if we want to play as a lone wolf, so Lycanroc's real only unique selling point as a playable fighter is stone manipulation combined with canine attacks. That doesn't put him above a leafy archer owl in terms of potential.

Decidueye is still the coolest 'mon of Gen 7, and Mimikyu's still cool enough to survive the generation shift, so my money's still put down for either of them.

Nominations:
Viridi x5

 

[Delzethin]

However, there are good points made. If the roster was finalized around summer 16, the games were just about to release so concept art is pretty well all Sakurai had to go on.

And Greninja got in specifically because the book was judged by its cover.

Not that anything’s impossible, but we do know Pokémon is judged by appearance to a much greater extent than other series. And if Lycanroc’s major popularity boosted with USUM - that’s where he got the dusk form and Z-move - we’re looking at a release of Nov 2017, which honestly puts him in the same realm as Rex/Pyra.

Just playing devil’s advocate. Honestly, I got back the one Pokémon I wanted, so I’m not really supporting any of these three much.

I went into further detail in the other thread. The gist of it is:

1. Sun and Moon were almost finished by Summer 2016, to where the designs for Gen 7's Pokémon would've all been finalized by then. This is in contrast to Smash 4 development, where X and Y still had a year to go when the roster was getting sussed out. The Smash team wouldn't have needed to rely on WIP information, since they'd have had access to the finished design documents and everything necessary to help their decision! This probably also applies to Dusk Lycanroc as well, since the Global Link had space for more Lycanroc forms from the moment it updated for Gen 7, meaning we've strong reason to think the design dates back to 2016.

2. The odds that they built Greninja using one mere sheet of concept art as reference is...low. Professional settings would want more references than that, and there are moves that draw inspiration from animations that are not part of the Greninja concept art that gets passed around. Even though the designs weren't finished yet, the Smash team must have had access to more than just the concept art. And wouldn't TPC want them to have design notes and other such things, to ensure they got the character right? So, Greninja probably wasn't judged by its cover, despite the narrative that's spread.

 

[MasterOfKnees]

Decidueye:

Chance: 20%

Want: 50%

Lycanroc:

Chance: 10%

Want: 10%

Mimikyu:

Chance: 20%

Want: 20%

This has less to do with each individual Pokémon and more so to do with how I feel about the chances of a Pokémon newcomer in general. I think with Pokémon having a total of 9 characters already, with 3 returning for this game, and with us likely getting less newcomers than usual, a Pokémon newcomer is probably not happening. Not only because of those things either, but Gen 7's timing was pretty bad on top of that, when Ultimate comes out all eyes will be on Pokémon's future rather than past, Let's Go will have come out as the new hip thing, and the buildup to Gen 8 will begin when we head into 2019. The lack of a clear choice is also concerning for it, I know people get hung up on Greninja being a nobody when he was revealed, but the potential was there for Game Freak to build on him as Gen 6 was new and fresh, that same promotional potential just isn't there for the Gen 7 guys because they'll already have exhausted that potential by the time any of them would be introduced into Smash.

There's always a chance as Pokémon is the monster that it is, but I feel like the most likely scenario atm is no Pokémon newcomer for the base game and then a Gen 8 Pokémon for DLC down the line (although even that I'm not certain of).

 

[Nimbostratus]

Not feeling like doing predictions, but here's my want scores:

Decidueye
Want- 70%
I'll admit, my enthuasism has wanned a bit since E3. Not because I needed "more grass starter", but because we already have 9 Pokemon and have few spots for newcomers left. Cool as Decidueye is, I'd prefer to see more actual characters to take those spots than any Pokemon. Even so, Decidueye is one of my favorite recent Pokemon, and this is probably his one chance, so I'm still mostly on board.

Lycanroc
Want- 0%
I don't actively dislike Lycanroc, but there's nothing I find special enough to make me want it in Smash. Something rubs me the wrong way that, with some exceptions of course, few seemed to actually want Lycanroc in Smash until they realized the Pokemon was getting pushed by TPC. I like Decidueye because I thought he was awesome when I played the game, not because the company said he was the next big thing. Again, I'm by no means accusing any particular individual of that, but it did seem like the trend, which I guess feels a little off.

Mimkyu
Want- 30%
I think Mimikyu is actually fairly cute and a good concept. It could work as a Smash fighter. Unfortunately, my desire to see a Pokemon is noticeably reduced, and I'd rather see Decidueye, so my want score can only be so high.

 

[skylanders fan]

decidueye
chance
well needless to say it fell alot. pokemon may still get another rep but will it be him sadly I doubt it. But he still is popular and could have ben selected neverthless.
25%

want
was my most wanted newcoming pokemon. Still is but not really sure we need a new pokemon this go around
60%

Lycanroc abstaing (don't care for him at all)

mimiku
chance
popular and missed the first round of pokemon he still has a chance. But with pichu back I think he still has along way to go
30%

want
would be fun adn I can see him work but not a need
50%

predicting
Mach Rider: 2
Excitebiker: 3
Sable 7

nominating skull kid x5

 

[WeirdChillFever]

I miss rating Incineroar on this day. With people screaming murder on the owl because of ivysaurs slappy hands being *gasp* green, I miss the same ****ty bandwagoning when it comes to Charizard being back in its cage and a standalone fire Pokémon missing.

Green Noodles Exist? Archer Bird Deconfirmed????
Chance: 35%
Smaller roster means a much less likely chance of two Gen 7 newcomers happening. That said, the massive pessimism surrounding Archer Owl, being perpetrated by a speculation headhoncho that should know better than to judge a character by the color of their slappy noodles, is overblown. While the bandwagoning was terrible before, the hatewagon and its decreasing ability to properly assess both Ivysaur's and Decidueye's moveset beyond what's essentially color is even weirder.
Where's the hype for a dedicated archer character? The sniper? The brave bird with the talons of terror? The Spirit Shackle? Was the Green Arrow really just green to you?
Because the way I see it, Ivysaur uses vines as a whip and pollen as clouds. That's his moveset. If you look beyond the schleppy noodles you see there's really not much "grass" to be found there.
Not only that, but Ivysaur is part of a gimmick itself. He's the middle stage of the Pokémon Trainer, the disjointed whip user that compensates his speed with his reach and hitlboxes. He barely uses plant-related material in his moveset and has nothing in common with what Decidueye would do.

"No, Decidueye isn't just supported because of the plant motif, that's just the beginning!"

ivy: "saur'

"Disgusting. Two green Pokémon on the roster?"

Want: 60%
He's fine by me. Nice design,

Like a Lock.
Chance: 40%
Just general anime prominence might save him, but moveset wise? He's decimated.
Just take a look at both Wolf and Duck Hunt, do you really think Sakurai will allow not two, but three dogs on the roster like that? One of them even quadruped and the other vaguely feral? I'm sorry but that's just Mr. Lock's moveset potential right there.
If there's any character that Ivysaur is similar to in moveset, it's Lycanroc. Lycanroc loses his motif as first fully quadruped character with Ivysaur which is as important, if not more important to Lycanroc as a unique character than Decidueye's (probably small) grass visuals. Heck, it can be argued that Ivy is the most bait-and-punish character on the roster, which steps right into Lycanroc's, arguably weak, perceived gameplan.
Even if Lycanroc would save himself with a transforming gimmick, Mr. Stretchy Sticks would steal that as well! Oh my god, Ivy's on a roll to steal each Pokémons moveset potential by being a *gasp* green monster with *gasp* four legs!

Want: 60%
Can't say it has increased after the undeservingly became top dog in the speculation bandwagon, so to speak.

Abstain from Memeikyu

Excitebiker x5

 

[YoshiandToad]

Decidueye
Chance: 8%
Not sure we're getting a new Pokémon for sure yet. Decidueye is an option, but it seems we vastly overestimated him last time. He's less popular than I first thought although being Rowlett's final evolution could aid him.
Grass type niche has been filled by the return of Ivysaur and frankly with all the archery gimmicks added to Link I don't think Decidueye has a unique role to fill anymore.

Want: 20%
I've never played Sun and Moon. I'd have picked Litten most likely if I had. I do like archers but with Young Link also returning alongside Link, Toon Link, Pit and Dark Pit I am plenty satisfied.

I'm at a loss for wanting any Pokémon at this point since the ones I'd actually want to play as are confirmed Pokeballs: Meowth, Eevee, Bewear and my personal favourite Abra.

Lycanroc:
Chance: 15%
Anime push, but quadraped and less obvious abilities. Also with three different forms who gets priority?

Want: 25%
Lycanroc is a little more unique than Decidueye but some of his forms are a bit generic. Geokinesis has a lot of potential to be interesting.

Mimikyu
Chance: 15%
Anime push, popular, even a non Sun and Moon player like me has heard of Mimikyu. Sadly seems like a Pokeball candidate.

Want: 28%
of these three it's the one that appeals the most being an eldritch abomination disguising itself as something cuddly to make friends.
Visual similarities to Pichu lessens the want a tad but since it functions totally differently from Pikachu I think it's decent.

Ain't no Meowth tho.

Nominate: Slippy Toad

 

[Llort A. Ton]

Decidueye
Chance- 30%
In an ordinary Smash game, hed be much more likely. From what weve now seen, I believe the roster will be more fanservoce based, and the characters were decided before Sun and Moon released. The 'need' for a grass pokemon is also now gone, thanks to ivysaur. His best bet is dlc, Id say.

Want- 20%
He looks cool, but thats all i can say about him. Was never big on Pokemon.

Lycanroc
Chance- 35%
The same applies to Lycanroc. However, he has a slight edge in that he is of some importance in the anime. With transformations returming on Pokemon Trainer, he could turn in between day and night forms too, which Sakurai may see as a fighter.

Want- 0%
Again, not really into pokemon. And even then, from a non-pokemon fanatic like me, it seems Decidueye (and a few other pokemons) can do a lot more and be an interesting fighter. Nothing against the pokemon, though.

Mimikyu
Chance- 40%
This pokemon was designed to be popular, so Sakurai couldve known in advance, but with Pichu, we already have Pikachus #2. With the direction this roster is heading, its best chance is dlc, and its popularity gives it a potential leg over other mons.

Want- 20%
A neat concept, but thats abput all I can say on the matter. I already have Pichu back so there is no major need for Mimikyu either imo.

Scirpion X 1
Thwomp X 4

 

[DaUsername]

Abstaining from all 3.

Excitebike prediction: 25%
Mach Rider prediction: 20%
Sable prediction: 15%
Noms: Every stage returns x5

 

[Pacack]

Well, this is an odd one for me today. I honestly don't expect us to get a Pokemon newcomer at all with the return of three Pokemon for this game. The fact that Pokemon Trainer is in the game again means that we have some representation of Pokemon Go and Pokemon Let's Go, which may be enough to appease the Pokemon Company until DLC rolls around. Overall, I'd say there's about a 45% chance of us getting a character from generation seven, and that's got to be split with a lot of contenders.

Decidueye
Chance: 7.5%
Want: 40%

Lycanroc
Chance: 15%
Want: 20%

Mimikyu
Chance: 10%
Want: 33%

Other (Rowlet, Incineroar, Nihilego, Alolan Ninetales)
Chance: 12.5%

 

[Indefinite Minimum]

Decidueye
Chance: 30%
Of all current Pogebens, spooky birb probably has the best shot. I think it's more likely we get one from the upcoming switch game though.

Want: 10%
Incineroar is better.

Lycanroc
Chance: 1%
It could be a pokeball mon maybe.

Want: 0%
pls no more furbait in smash samurai

Mimikyu
Chance: 5%
It's a cool idea and that might be enough.

Want: 20%
We need the number of Pikachus to match the number of links.

Nominations:
Dragonite x5

 

[Smasher 101]

The Alolan Trio

Chance Decidueye: 15%
Lycanroc and Mimikyu: 30%
(Previous scores: 45% (Decidueye), 40% (Lycanroc, Mimikyu))

I'm actually still pretty confident we're going to get a newcomer from Gen VII. Nothing has really changed my mind on that, the only reason my score for one overall down is because I think I can at least drop the possibility of us getting more than one. Not like that was very likely anyway, but yeah. I'm actually putting it at a 95% chance of getting one, with some put aside for some of the other choices like Incineroar. I'm splitting the other 75% among the three because I still think it'll be one of them. That said I am unfortunately losing hope in Decidueye. Its a notable starter and Rowlet was always a favorite which I actually do think could help its final evo, but Decidueye itself just isn't as popular or promoted as the other two. Hard to me to pick a real frontrunner between Mimikyu and Lycanroc, but I see it as likely that one of them is in.

Decidueye want: 100%

Remains one of my top wants. Decidueye is my favorite Gen VII 'mon and one of my favorites of all time. I love its design and feel it has a lot of potential as a fighter. I hope I'm wrong and it makes the cut.

Lycanroc want: 0%

Lycanroc however doesn't appeal to me in the slightest. I didn't use it much in my Moon playthrough, find it kind of bland at best compared to other choices, and have no interest in its moveset potential. Would prefer both of today's other options and several others I'm afraid.

Mimikyu want: 50%

Don't have a strong opinion on it either way. Never used it in Moon but I like it more than Lycanroc at least and it seems like it could be interesting. Not someone I particularly want though. Feels a bit more like Poké Ball material to me honestly, but I'd give it a shot if its a fighter.

Nominations: Tails x5

 

[ShinyRegice]

I'm not gonna make super long explanations for each character because I suppose there's little time left before the day ends (I have been too busy or too tired to post before) so I'm gonna summary my thoughts with some key points instead.

- Pokémon is a pretty safe bet when it comes to adding characters to Smash, because mainline titles consistently sell millions and its characters to choose from are varied and unique.
- Generation 7 is still the most recent generation, as the Let's Go games are spin-offs and generation 8 is releasing next year. It looks like the "odd-numbered generations don't get playable reps outside of the first one" curse might be broken this time.
- Thankfully, none of these Pokémon were shown as a Poké Ball summon.
- There's an argument to be made about getting any generation 7 Pokémon newcomer being less likely overall with the low number of newcomers comparatively to Smash 4 Sakurai told us to expect. However I don't share this sentiment, as I said a Pokémon newcomer is a pretty safe bet and I always expected this Smash to give more priority to returning characters and a bit less to newcomers (although not to the extent of what actually happened).
- At the time Sakurai likely chose the roster for Smash Ultimate, generation 7 was closer to release than gen 6 when he chose the roster for Smash 4, meaning he probably had more to work with than when he chose Greninja, meaning designs were more finalized as well as the roles of gen 7 Pokémon in upcoming marketing and anime.
- The return of Pokémon Trainer and his Pokémon means the starter trio appeal disappears. Not that I ever believed it was Decidueye's main strength as a contender for Smash.
- Decidueye is playable in Pokkén and Mimikyu got a dedicated song on Pokémon's Youtube channel... but for the former it's the same game that put Braixen over Greninja and for the later Magikarp and Slowpoke have one too, so maybe those aren't the strongest arguments.
- Decidueye has the advantage of being a fully evolved starter, giving it an edge over most other candidates when it comes to exposure as an iconic Pokémon of the generation. There's also a consensus among Smash fans that Decidueye looks like the most unique of them all for a Smash moveset, thanks to its big arrows, owl legs and throwable disjointed plant feathers that would with little doubt give it a unique fighting style no one else could have. As such, there's a serious chance that Sakurai could be convinced by the concept art and make it a Smash fighter.
- On the other hand, Decidueye had little role in the anime yet, only appearing briefly while it now seems like Ash's Rowlet won't evolve, and Sakurai's past statements suggest that The Pokémon Company's plans for anime prominence of different Pokémon has a role to play in deciding which Pokémon becomes playable in new Smash games.
- Two other Pokémon, Lycanroc and Mimikyu, have received more anime prominence and merchandising of different kind, it could actually be said that they're the closest things we have to official generation 7 mascots.
- Lycanroc of the two has gotten the most prominent anime roles. It however has three different designs, so Sakurai would have to choose one of them. I suspect he might either Midday or Dusk, or possibly one with the other as an alt. It has obvious moveset potential in the form of Stone Edge, Stealth Rock and Accelerock.
- Its quadruped appearance, however, might cause problems to pick up certain items like hammers and crates. Although if Sakurai can make Ridley playable then I'm pretty sure he can make Lycanroc work in that regard, like transporting crates on its back or swinging its head upward and downward with the hammer, even though the later could look a bit ridiculous. Anyway it'd be less straightforward than Ivysaur who's blessed with vines or Duck Hunt who can afford to occasionally go bipedal because of its extremely cartoony appearance. There's also the possibility of choosing Dusk Lycanroc instead, although it would mean Sakurai would forgo Accelerock.
- Mimikyu, while not having as much anime prominence as Lycanroc, is still a top Pokémon in that regard, and got a ton of merchandise and exposure in other media. In fact I have no doubt that The Pokémon Company always viewed it as highly marketable. Its backstory and Pikachu mimicry made it popular among Pokémon fans, which is someting I suspect TPC anticipated. Fun fact, it's also the only totem-sized gift Pokémon to be given in both Ultra Sun and Ultra Moon.
- Thanks to its retractable arms from below its clothe, Mimikyu would have no trouble grabbing ledges, items or opponents.
- If Sakurai wants to experiment with unique character-defining gimmicks, Mimikyu is an obvious choice for that. Its Disguise can protect it from a strong move, and it can reflect it back with Copycat, which can work as a move that copies the hitbox properties of the last attack received from an opponent, so they have to think twice before landing specifing moves. Other aspects of the character would be balanced around that (most notably light weight and poor recovery).

My final scores for these characters:

Decidueye chances: 17.5%
Lycanroc chances: 15%
Mimikyu chances: 32.5%

To be completely fair, part of these scores is defined by personal expectation, "gut feeling" as I'd call it, so don't hesitate to disagree with them and take them with a grain of salt (no, in fact, take everything in RTC with a grain of salt. Unless someone is giving a flat zero in chance to the Yarne & Owain tag team or something.) And as you can guess it, I'm rating them assuming they're pretty much mutually exclusive (if one gets confirmed, then the other two's chances go close to zero).

For want, while my personal favorite Pokémon of this generation is Decidueye thanks to its awesome design, for Smash I have a preference for Mimikyu as a fighter because I feel like it has more interesting potential for a creative moveset and feels more like an actual generation 7 mascot. Lycanroc, while it would make sense, I don't care as much, but still has potential to be interesting. And as I said when we rated it last time, having a playable Smash Pokémon with Stealth Rock in its moveset would be hilarious, I kinda want to see the Smogon crowd's reaction to that.

Decidueye want: 60%
Lycanroc want: 45%
Mimikyu want: 70%

TCT~Phantom can we start nominating things again now? If so, then I nominate Smash Run x5. (And speaking about Yarne/Owain their want score is missing in the results table) Edit: well, it looks like everyone is nominating things actually, so I take it as a yes.

 

[Seraphii]

Decidueye chance: 40%
Pokemon sun and moon was one of best selling game in nintendo and they sold millions of copies. Plus it is significant as it coincides with pokemon 20th anniversary. Rowlet line is considerably the most popular starter line this time round, from official pokemon twitter polls and website polls. Being the biggest money making game franchise, it wouldn't really make that sense for smash to not include a pokemon newcomer, as it can easily bring in revenues from pokemon fans. Decidueye was also promoted as the only playable gen 7 pokemon for pokken, and pokken is the 9th best selling switch game from the april sales figures selling about 1.3 mil (definitely not as great AAA titles, but it did not bad for a port game). Thus, decidueye may have a chance to be represent in smash for its relevance to pokken and pokemon sun. its popularity was definitely there as well. It was previously the most popular TCG card among the starters and reddit released a poll in jul 2017 of over 3000 entries and decidueye was the most popular alola pokemon followed by mimikyu.

https://www.reddit.com/r/pokemon/comments/6mqw8r/rpokemon_mega_survey_results/

And a few smash polls with large number of participants had listed decidueye as the most wanted pokemon newcomer.
1: https://sourcegaming.info/2018/06/10/mega-smash-poll-switch-results/ from April 2018 with 2000+ entries
2: https://www.reddit.com/r/smashbros/comments/89n2gq/official_rsmashbros_smash_switch_character/ from Apr 2018 with 6000+ entries

Even after the reveal of pokemon trainer returning (thus fulfilling the grass type quota), this simple poll still hinted that decidueye is pretty much wanted: https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/boards/234547-super-smash-bros-ultimate/76717016. I think the grass typing was used as a reason to justify its entries, but it is not true that people don't genuinely support his inclusion as well. Some supporting reasons are like its design and moveset potentials that it can provide.

The japan poll was very very frequently pulled up by some to argue that decidueye is not popular. But it is often conveniently not stated that rowlet is at number one position on that poll. I like both rowlet and decidueye, and if I were to vote, I may also vote for rowlet as he is such a cute ball of fluff but that doesnt mean that I hate decidueye. I like decidueye as well. Just like someone above here stated, It is very possible that a good percentage of rowlet fans would also like decidueye as well, or at least not to the extent of hating decidueye. Therefore I still believe decidueye still has a good chance to get in with the above supporting points.

What affects its chances are that the roster is so full at the moment, and there is alot of competition for newcomers. Ivysaur's inclusion also had an impact but I do think that decidueye has merits on its own then just the silly trio type theory. Decidueye's lacklustre performance in the competitive pokemon main game and lack of appearance in anime are his disadvantages. Although the pokemon anime developer previously might have hinted rowlet's evolution possibility via twitter, which may give hope for changes in the later part of the show. Perhaps if it really evolves, it may promote its popularity via anime on the tail end of sun/moon. it could be my own wishful thinking as well.

Decidueye want: 80%
__________________________________

Mimikyu chance: 35%
Mimikyu is very popular and is usually one of the top few of popularity polls. It is very cute and prominent in the anime. It has many merchandises under its cloak. It is iconic as well and even has its own song and Z-move. It can provide some flashy ghost type moves which are not yet present in the current pokemon roster. Similarly it presents the pokemon Sun and moon game which is $$$$

I think what hurts its chances are that to non-pokemon fan, its design of looking like a pikachu is a double edge sword, it basically may just seemed like another pikachu. In the roster, theres pikachu, pichu and pikachu libre skin. Thus, it could be pikachuishly saturated. thus, other pokemons may be considered for the design diversity or mimikyu might be added as a pokeball character. But nontheless I would be glad for him to be added in as well.

Mimikyu want: 70%
_________________________________

Lycanroc chance: 25%
It represents the pokemon Sun and Moon and is one of the most unique pokemon this time round with three type of evolution. And there is a special one in dusk lycanroc. Very prominent in the anime and is one of the powerhouse of Ash and given alot of attention in the anime. Its cool looking and everybody, or most people love dogs, and it provide a new 4 legged character with rock type attack potential. And theres 3 of them, or perhaps the dusk and midday lycanroc can be echo fighter of each other.

The disadvantages would be that beyond the anime, it does not have much presence within the main pokemon game or other spin-offs. He is recently alot of attention at this point of time via the anime, but it is kinda too early for smash. By the time smash is released by december, his presence might had already reached a plateau or decreased. He does not exactly has the same amount of supporter as compared to the above 2.

Lycanroc want: 60%

 

[Arcanir]

Had a rough day, so I'll be brief with these. I will mention that I did a small cut to the Pokémon's chances overall since I wanted to reboot my scoring system and I did want to give a slight consideration to the possibility of us not getting a Pokémon newcomer at all (though I still think it's very likely we'll get a new Pokémon).

Decidueye
Chance: 40%
I'm going to start off by saying that I don't think Ivysaur's return hurts his chances. I didn't consider the trio thing a solid point, so Ivysaur destroying that argument had no effect on me. The only thing the Grass thing meant for the character is that it added potential options to his movepool, and while the Grass part is shared now, it doesn't mean the rest of his potential is lost as it still could be used as a supplement to his other abilities (archery, ghost typing, etc.)

Rather, what's making me lower his score is rather that competition within his series is strict and he does fall short in promotion and merchandising compared to the other candidates. Sakurai did mention is a factor for finding what's the 'hot' Pokemon, and since that is lacking for Decidueye it leaves him in a tough position relatively. He still is an appealing character thanks to his concept art, abilities, and starter status, so it's not bad for him by any means, but it does mean he's more on the level of the other Pokémon then heads above them like debated before.

Want: 85%
Still one of my most wanted Pokémon, he has an interesting concept and he would be fun to play as.

Lycanroc
Chance: 45%
Most of my points from before apply here. It's one of the most promoted Pokémon in the generation, with multiple appearances spanning across multiple medias. It's prominent in the anime thanks to being Ash's ace and being present in the movie, it's present in advertising for the games (both SM and especially USUM), it's very notable in the TCG, has a lot of merchandise (IIRC, it's 4th behind Alolan Vulpix, Mimikyu, and Rowlet), and other such things. Some of this is potentially timing based and that could possibly hurt it depending on how far ahead Sakurai was made aware of, but it did also have a fair chunk to its name even before the start of 2017 such as the Pokémon Horizon manga, so it still left its mark pretty early on.

What leaves it more questionable is that it's still a grey area of when Sakurai picked out his characters, how much influence the future promotion had on Sakurai, and that it's up against other notable candidates like Decidueye and Mimikyu who have their own perks.

Want: 85%
Also a Pokémon I'd be happy to see from Gen 7.

Mimikyu
Chance: 45%
It's very similar to Lycanroc. It has a lot of influence in the franchise currently as it's notable in the anime (caught early by Jessie and used notably by her), has a lot of merchandise, and is present in the game's advertising (including the Mimikyu rap). It also shares the same flaws as some of its promotion is a bit time dependent as we don't know how far out Sakurai is aware of, and it is a viable candidate among the others and may be overlooked for one of them.

Want: 50%
Would be fine with it, but I'd prefer the other Pokémon candidates personally.

Edit: Nomination: Monster Hunter Character x5

 

[TCT~Phantom]

OK I have come under the weather right now, so calcs will not be on time. Calcs for day 1 of the scheduled rerate will be out soon. Calcs for Yesterday and Today will be out tomorrow.

Today we are having a retro day. Rate Excitebiker, Prince Sable, and Mach Rider in chance and want. Also predict for the echo day ISabelle, Shadow, Funky Kong, and Octolings.

Updated schedule
6/17 Decidueye, Lycanroc, and Mimikyu
6/18 Excitebiker, Mach Rider, and Prince Sable
6/19 Isabelle, Shadow, Funky Kong, and Octolings
6/20 Bandana Dee and Elma
6/21 Dixie Kong and Isaac
6/22 Rayman and Crash Bandicoot
6/23 Paper Mario and Celica
6/24 Shovel Knight and Shantae
6/25 Geno and Dillon
6/26 Steve and Chibi Robo
6/27 Banjo and Kazooie and Andy
6/28 Professor Layton and Skull Kid
6/29 Lip and Travis Touchdown
6/30 Arle Nadja and Qbby
7/1 Concept: Rhythm Heaven Character, Concept: Gen 7 pokemon newcomer, and Concept: Arms Character


Nominations are still a thing btw. If anyone wants to know why these chars were chosen for rerates is due to either being potential echos, or being in the top 30 of chance or want.

 

[A Distant Demon]

So we had the made up and pointless type trio theme be a boon for diecidueye and now suddenly it means he's never getting in and absolutely isnt unique (even if that's completely wrong). What a strange twist of fate. . .and I dont even care that much for decidueye



Prince Sable I cant really see (even less western presence than Takamaru) and I imagine Mach Rider would be skipped over for excitebiker. Excitebiker I see having a decent chance but not a huge one. Frankly im not expecting a retro cahracter at all at this point, and smash fans have been notoriously bad at guessing retros anyway lol.


Want
Sable :20%
meh

Mach Rider:30%
meh

Excitebiker: 70%
I just think they're neat. . .also because a certain Gatherer would die, and that would be fun to watch them get hyped

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

Excitebiker
Chance: 60%
With Takamaru out of the picture as a possible retro rep and with the Excitebikers not yet confirmed as an Assist throphy, I wouldn't be suprised if this character got chosesn as the suprise retro pick. Excitebike seems to be the one of the only iconic First Party NES games without a character.

Prince Sable
Chance: 5%
He's a bit on the obscure side. His game is Japan only from what I've heard and I don't even know if it really even is that popular over there.

Want: ABSTAIN

Mach Rider:
Chance: 20%
Another First Party retro character who rides a motorcycle. He has machineguns which could make him more fitting as a fighter but I don't think his game is as recognizable and iconic as Excitebike and I really can't see us getting both.

Want: 35%
Again, a character always riding a motorcycle sounds interesting.

Isabelle: 53.72%
Shadow: 17.94%
Funky Kong: 22.16%
Octolings: 16.87%
I feel like you guys are gonna treat this ''Echo Fighter'' thing as a way bigger deal than it actually will be.

Leon Kennedy x5

 

[Louie G.]

Excitebiker
Chance: 25%
I'd say Excitebiker's chances are pretty okay. It's a widely known fact that Sakurai seriously considered a playable Excitebiker way back in Melee but couldn't find a way to properly implement him as a fighter. Flash forward to Smash Ultimate where Sakurai has changed his mind a number of times, most notably with Villager and Ridley. Excitebike is a pretty damn important and iconic Nintendo game, definitely up there with the likes of Duck Hunt so I'd argue he's probably one of the more reasonable retro character picks at this point. Even better that Excite series has had a game as recent as 2009 and continues to be represented in games like Mario Kart. There's really quite a bit going for him, just at this point idk if a retro character is guaranteed anymore and there are still a number of other picks to choose from, but he's one of the leading contenders.

Want: 75%
Sure! Excitebike is very iconic and I think a mounted fighter could be really cool, but Mach Rider is probably my most wanted retro pick so Excitebiker being confirmed would probably knock Mach Rider's chances down pretty significantly. I just think he's the more interesting choice but I would get over it.

Mach Rider
Chance: 10%
Mach Rider is another character that Sakurai has considered in the past, and they could be brought back for similar reasons. I think it goes without saying that these two directly affect one another's chances and unfortunately Mach Rider doesn't have the same influence and continuing legacy as Excitebike. I could see Sakurai going with Mach Rider instead because Mach Rider is that much cooler and has more moveset potential... but moveset potential is usually a bit of a non-issue considering Sakurai has made movesets with far less to go off of. Kinda possible that Excitebiker could pull some moves off Mach Rider too given their presumably similar fighter approach. But yeah, as much as I love Mach Rider I consider Excitebiker to be the more likely choice.

Want: 100%
Too bad because Mach Rider would be the ideal choice for a character like this. I think Sakurai could make a really nice moveset for Excitebiker but Mach Rider just lends themselves so much better in my eyes. I'd be fine with either of them but damn Mach Rider would be cool as heck.

Prince Sable
Chance: 5%
Hey I won't completely count them out, Sable's got some neat abilities to work with and I haven't seen him as an Assist Trophy yet, so you never know. I just feel like as far as Japanese-centric retro characters go Takamaru would have been the obvious choice and Sakurai excluded him last time around for not being recognizable enough (presumably his opinion hasn't changed). Additionally being in AT limbo may seem like a good thing for the time being, but I think Sable is more in danger of being in the Isaac/Ray category of missing ATs than the Little Mac category.

Want: 50%
I'm neutral, I don't particularly want him but he could be pretty fun! I'm not going out of my way to support him but I would probably end up pleasantly surprised if he was added.

PREDICTIONS
Isabelle: 46.75%
Shadow: 32.5%
Funky Kong: 26.25%
Octolings: 30.75%

Chorus Kids x5

 

[RouffWestie]

Excitebiker, Mach Rider, and Prince Sable
Chance: 1% for all

I have next to no faith in a retro newcomer for this game. None of them have anything over the other that I see having a significant impact on their chances, so they're all on level.
----------
Excitebiker
Want: 2%

The game wasn't very fun to begin with, so the prospect of a character implementing that gameplay doesn't interest me. The only definitive trait the character has is that it rides a vehicle, which seems incredibly generic.

Mach Rider
Want: 2%

I only know about it because of the song introduced in Melee. It's another character that seems incredibly generic because their defining trait is, “they ride a vehicle.”

Prince Sable
Want: 11%

Know nothing about his franchise, but his ability to transform into animals is a more promising trait than riding a vehicle. It's an ability I know Shantae and Wonder Boy share, and possibly lots of other video game characters I don't know about. The animal forms make him the only interesting character of the three retros being voted today, and yet he's still a little too typical in my opinion.

 

[Troykv]

Excitebiker:

Chance: 20%

Looks like one of the most likely "retros" now, but still isn't a given, because of the Ultimate's change of focus... because well... they excitebiker itself don't seems to be a really popular character (the only trend I'm almost sure we'll repeat is the new Pokémon... because of Pokémon Company be like that).

Mach Rider:

Chance: 15%

Essencially the similar ideas and problems than EB, but a bit more niche.

Prince Sable:

Chance: 5%

This character has the same problems overall that Takamaru had in 2012... but worse (at least Mysterious Murasame Castle is a important game in Nintendo's eyes; and he's still a potential candidate for DLC thanks to growing popularity anyway)

Want for all of them: 50%

I think they have their own quirks to be fun; but I'm not emotionally invested to any of them.

_____________________

Prediction

Oh my, tomorrow it's the Isabelle's Day and Echo Fighters Day 2; well, this will be fun to read xD

Isabelle: 56.4% (Yeah, she is now our relevant popular character who it's the most likely to be upgrape)
Shadow: 18.6%
Funky Kong: 19.5%
Octoling: 20.1%

________________________

Nominations:

Tingle x3
Leon Kennedy x2

 

[Ze Diglett]

Abstaining for today. I'm doubtful that we'll even see a first-party retro rep this time despite tradition, and although these three are some of the few remaining options for that niche, I'm not inclined to feel optimistic about any of them. I don't particularly like the idea of Excitebiker/Mach Rider's vehicle gimmick as it feels more restrictive than anything else, and Prince Sable could be interesting, but I don't really know enough about the character or his history to say anything for sure.

Nominating Tingle x5

 

[BluePikmin11]

I believe which retro gets in Smash Ultimate will depend on ballot popularity. Retros getting in by popularity has been a tradition since Super Smash Bros. Brawl. Pit was in Brawl due to him being the most requested retro newcomer in America and Japan. Little Mac’s addition in Smash 4 was the result of him being the most popular retro in the West, with him being ranking the highest out of all classic character in a VGTribune poll that was sent to Sakurai at the time of the project proposal. I see the same process being done again for this Smash. The ballot will most certainly help Sakurai find which retro people worldwide want to see the most, even if it means that he has to dig deep through the rankings of several third-parties like Sora & Bomberman and several Nintendo newcomers like K. Rool & Skull Kid to find the most popular classic character.

I could see Excitebiker being a frequently voted newcomer worldwide due to motivations like his game being an NES classic and his moveset potential of utilizing his bike for all attacks.

I could see Mach Rider also being a frequently voted newcomer worldwide for the same reasons as Excitebiker, with his moveset potential having a bit more flair with the superbike/machine gun.

For Prince Sable, even as a big fan of For the Frog the Bell Tolls, it is hard to imagine him being frequently voted and having moderately notable Western following like Lip and Takamaru for me to see him as one of the top ballot retros.

Based on the research I have done for retros via sites like Smashboards, Gamefaqs, and Twitter, I have only seen Excitebiker and Mach Rider have a bit of campaigning, with Sable getting bare voting support. Lip and even Mike Jones have more passionate/bigger campaigns than these characters for me to not see these retros highly voted on the ballot. I personally do not see any of these retro newcomers happening. Maybe I could see Prince Sable being added under certain conditions of Sakurai wanting to utilize a transformation character and wanting to represent the Gameboy era for the same reasons Ice Climbers were included in Melee. Sakurai does seem to have an attachment towards the character, judging by his appearances in the Smash 4 DLC trailers of Lucas and Cloud. But again, I see ballot popularity being a major factor for the next retro inclusion. All three of these characters do not strike me as possible retros being passionately and highly voted in both the West and East for me to see them happening.

x5 Hanafuda character