Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[Deleted member]

Funky Kong

Chance: 7%
He's not making it into the base roster as a unique character. I guess he could be made into a DK echo but that would be a huge disservice to the character. Making him a brutish ape like DK simply doesn't encapsulate Funky's personality, which is pretty much the sole reason for his popularity. I don't think Sakurai would make a fighter so out of character and on top of that there are other more likely echoes out there for competition.

Want: 100% (Unique), 0% (Echo)
Pretty self explanatory from what I said before. I have no interest in playing a Funky Kong that isn't funky, but an actual take on a fighter who uses tricks and taunts to fight would be amazing.

Isabelle

Chance: 50%
It's a toss-up. No Assist Trophy so far and she could be made into a Villager echo, as much as I wouldn't like it. Still faces fierce competition. She is heavily promoted but I'm not sure how much it showed on the Smash Ballot so I'm leaving it as a 50-50.

Want: 100% (Unique), 50% (Echo)
I would greatly prefer her to be unique. But at the very least her character wouldn't be thrown into the trash like Funky if they were made into echoes.

Octolings

Chance: 1%
They are the hot 'new' thing in Splatoon. Putting aside the fact that newcomer clone pairs are pretty rare (Mario/Luigi & Marth/Roy), I just don't think we'll ever get Octolings. People seem to be overlooking that there are only so many visually distinct and appealing colors you can use to easily communicate to players whose ink is whose. Doubling that number would be an absolute mess, so they're far more likely as an alternate costume than a brand new character. Keep in mind that the Meta-Ridley costume in the trailer wasn't present in the demo so either Ridley is a special case or each character is getting 9 or 10 colors instead of 8. And if Ridley is a special case, why can't the Inklings be as well? That's not to say you couldn't create a set of 16-20 unique ink colors, just that it'd be very hard to make every single one clearly stand out from one another in a way that lets people know ink ownership at a glance, and in a way that sticks to the bright and colorful nature of Splatoon. Technically it could happen but I seriously doubt this since the color issue would be completely circumvented if they were alternates.

Want: 0%
I really like Splatoon but I don't plan on getting the expansion nor have I ever really cared about the generic Inkling clones I fight in story mode, so there's no connection here. But aside from that, the color issue really sours me since there's a good chance ink colors could be confused in certain Octoling vs. Inkling matchups.

Shadow

Chance: 85%
Call me crazy but I think we're getting Shadow in this game. Let's look at what he has going for him. His Assist Trophy is missing and could've been straight up replaced with Knuckles. He's insanely popular in a game that is demonstrably drawing on popularity as the primary factor for deciding on newcomers. Unlike Funky Kong, he's a literal clone of Sonic the Hedgehog so it would be in character for him to fight the same way. As far as 3rd parties go, SEGA is one of the easiest for Nintendo to negotiate with. There's not much of anything going against him except for the fact that we're limited on newcomers and the idea that we won't get more than one 3rd party per franchise. I don't think either of those points make a major difference since echoes are a way to pad out the roster with highly requested characters and the idea that we can't get 2+ characters from a single 3rd party franchise is a fan-made construction. Besides, we've already gotten multiple characters from a single 3rd party anyway.

Want: 30%
I have mixed feelings. On the one hand he's an edgy hedgehog, but on the other hand it'd be kinda cool to have him. Only a little though.

 

[TheFritzle]

Funky Kong:
Chance: 10%
Funky Kong is a surprising frequent Donkey Kong character. He appears in almost every game in some form, received Funky Mode in the Tropical Freeze's switch port, and attained the position of DK's third Mario Kart character in MK Wii. Some are saying he would be an echo, which he could be, but I wouldn't see the point in echoing Funky when there are other characters that are fit the mold better. I could see Funky getting in as a semi-clone of Donkey. Either way I don't think he is likely when he is competing with insanely popular King K. Rool and Dixie, who fits the echo mold much better.

Want: 75%
He's a bodacious bro, who rides around on an airplane and is a master of his surfboard. I'd love to see this guy in the game, also because I really want this to be one of his taunts.

Spoiler

Isabelle:
Chance: 70%
She's the de facto face of the Animal Crossing franchise. If we're going to get a second AC rep, it only makes sense it would be her. Her appeal also extends further than her own franchise. She is used in tons of marketing for Nintendo, not only AC. I could see her getting in based solely on popularity alone. Not saying she wouldn't be unique, but I think her popularity would come first, than moveset. Her mii costume and assist trophy are proof of her popularity during Sm4sh, and her popularity has only grown since than. We haven't seen her assist yet, which doesn't mean too much but is something to note. I have a feeling she isn't going to make it, but she still has a very high chance regardless.

Want: 10%
I really hate her. I can't explain the exact reasons why she irritates me so much. I'm not doubting her ability to have a unique moveset, but I just hate her character so much.

Octolings:
Chance: 50%
A prime candidate for an echo character. Splatoon already is a big series right now, so it getting two characters isn't that big of a stretch. The problem Splatoon faces getting new characters is that there aren't that many differences between characters. This is why Pikmin doesn't get new characters. They may be different people, but they all do the same thing. That's why getting an echo or semi-clone is the best option for the series. They could always make a second Splatoon character based on new weapons from the sequel, but what are they going to call it? Inkling 2? We haven't seen an Octoling alt-costume, which is kind of wasted opportunity, but we also may be getting unlockable alts, as shown by Meta-Ridley. I think it is honestly a toss up, and I think it could go 50/50.

Want: 50%
Whatever. I wasn't planning on playing Inkling much in the first place, so an echo doesn't interest me.

Shadow:
Chance: 50%
Same with Octolings, I think it is really hard to predict echo fighters. They don't take much work, so it doesn't take much commitment to put them in. I could see Shadow getting in as Sonic's echo. His assist trophy is absent, which doesn't mean much, but the fact that we have seen a new Sonic assist trophy but not his is interesting. Sonic also doesn't have any existing costume based on him, which isn't surprising since Sonic's alts suck. I could see him being added, but I'm also not sure if Sakurai would go through the trouble to get a third-party echo when he could just add a different one.

Want: 50%
I'm just kind of neutral on him. I don't care if he gets in or not, but I wouldn't hate if he did. I mainly just like his shoes though.

 

[Indefinite Minimum]

Funky Kong
Chance: 30%
(((echo))) character potential
Want: 100%
He's still as bodacious as ever.

Isabelle
Chance: 1%
Why would they put a mobile game character in Smash? It's like asking for Alphonse.
Want: 0%
pls no more furbait samurai

Octolings
Chance: 30%
(((((((echo)))))))
Want: 10%
They'd be cool.

Shadow
Chance: 30%
(((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((echo)))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))
Want: 100%
WHERE'S THAT DAMN FOURTH ECHO CHARACTER

Nominations:
Dragonite x5

 

[Scamper52596]

Funky Kong

Chance: 6%
On one hand, he might make for an easy Echo Fighter. On the other, this franchise has two clear front runners going for that playable slot. It would be much better and please the fans more to make King K. Rool a unique fighter along with Dixie Kong as the additional Echo Fighter. My jaw would hit the floor if I saw any other character from the Donkey Kong franchise make it in Smash before either of those two.
I would be pretty scared to see the reaction on Smashboards if it were to just be Funky...

Want: 0%
No attachment whatsoever, and would rather see them work on more noteworthy characters even if he were to be made as just a quick Echo Fighter.


Isabelle

Chance: 70%
I haven't really thought much of Isabelle's chances of getting in Smash. I've just figured that being an Assist Trophy is perfectly fine for that character, but Slyshock's argument in favor of Isabelle gave me second thoughts about her chances. Being the face of the Animal Crossing franchise to such an extent might be enough for Sakurai to consider upgrading her to playable status. I'm not as fully convinced, but now I think her chances are definitely solid.
I wonder if Isabelle and Duck Hunt Dog would get along...

Want: 60%
I do love Animal Crossing, and I enjoy playing Isabelle in Mario Kart 8. She's not really a character I'm actively rooting for to become playable in Smash though. It would be cool if she makes it, but it won't disappoint me at all if she doesn't.


Octolings

Chance: 8%
Ah, see what I did there with my chance rating for the Octolings? =D
Anyway, I really don't see them becoming playable at this point. I think Sakurai and the team probably want the spotlight to be on Inklings right now as the new series to be included in Smash, and since most of the Splatoon content in Smash Ultimate is based off of the first Splatoon I doubt they'll pick the original Octoling design to be playable. They would probably want the Octoling from Splatoon 2, and I think it's way too late for that design to make it in on top of the first Splatoon being the focus of content for Smash. Maybe as a DLC Echo Fighter down the line, but I don't think they're going to take that route with Echo Fighters.
Would be fun to have Inkling and Octoling 4v4's in Smash though...

Want: 50%
I love Splatoon, so I wouldn't really mind or be disappointed either way. I'm perfectly happy with the just the Inklings being in Smash, but I wouldn't say no to more Splatoon content as long as they're only an Echo Fighter.


Shadow

Chance: 32%
Surprisingly, I could honestly see this happening. The idea of Shadow as a playable fighter is very popular among casual players of Smash, and the fact that we've seen a new Knuckles Assist Trophy and haven't seen the traditional Shadow one yet definitely raises an eyebrow. He would be the perfect type of character to be an Echo Fighter, and the Sonic franchise in Smash feels as though it has enough seniority at this point to possibly get more characters from that series included. They might even throw Tails in there as a unique fighter as well.
I imagine Shadow would taunt Sonic about being the Ultimate Life Form on the Victory Screen...

Want: 35%
Yet another situation where I really don't care either way for the most part. The main reason my score is lower than 50% is because I'd like to see Tails make it in along with Shadow and not just have Shadow as an Echo Fighter by himself.


Nominations
Tetra x 5

 

[NeonBurrito]

From what I can tell, today is pretty much 'Echo Fighters: The Day,' so I'm going to be judging characters based off of that. We still don't really know how many echo fighters there's going to be, but I feel like its safe to assume that we'll get a few more, considering how they're being marketed as a brand new, hip thing.

I could be wrong though. I am wrong very often.

Funky Kong

Chance - 10%

I think Donkey Kong Country: Tropical Freeze ft. Funky Kong was probably a bit too late to make it into the game, even as an echo character. However, considering echo characters don't take a lot of time to create, it certainly is possible.

Somewhat unrelated, but I've seen the idea that he couldn't be an Echo Fighter thrown around a bit, because he stands on his two hind legs unlike Donkey Kong, who stands on all fours. Really, they could just give him a new idle stance (like they gave Daisy) to fix this, considering he still walks on all fours when moving around. In terms of him not using his surfboard, it'd honestly be really disappointing to see him not using it for the sake of having him be a clone, but Daisy isn't exactly known for using Toads, a parasol, or SMB2 veggies, so I don't think it means much.

I'd love for him to have a unique moveset though.

Want - 60%

Funky Kong is totally bodacious, man.

He was also my go to guy during the Mario Kart Wii online days, but then again, he was everyone's go to guy during the Mario Kart Wii days, unless they were a filthy Daisy + Mach Bike scrub who couldn't handle the raw speed and strength of The Funkster + Flame Runner.

Basically, I'm just really desperate for some new DKC content. I'd take anything I could get at this point. Dixie, Cranky, K. Rool, Funky, Leo Luster, whatever. Just give me someone.

Some points off on the case of him being an echo rather than a completely unique character, but I'm still down for the Funkster.

Isabelle

Chance - 85%

I honestly think she's as close to a "lock" as you can get at this point. She's been the mascot of the entire Animal Crossing franchise since New Leaf's release in 2012, and her assist trophy was one of the few mysterious absences at E3.

With the introduction of Echo Fighters, she could very easily just be converted into one. I know mods are never good idea on how characters could work, but this model swap does a pretty phenomenal job of what it might look like.

The only thing that might stand in her way would be her general distaste towards fighting, and how that would go against her character, which is something that Sakurai has said he prioritizes in characters.

“Providing accurate portrayals of characters is something I want to pay ample attention to. If I don’t stick to that thought, then we’d have to lower the quality or break the balance of the game. Something that goes way off spec could break the entire game.”
SOURCE

Then again, in that quote, he was talking about Ridley. I don't think "character accuracy" holds her back at all, considering the undisputed king of "They can't be playable! It wouldn't be accurate to their character!" is now a playable character.

Want - 0%

I still don't like her. She may be the new Animal Crossing mascot, but no one will ever replace the true Animal Crossing mascot in my heart.

Octolings

Chance - 40%

It's possible for sure. Octolings and Inklings pretty much have the exact same capabilities, and the idea of playable Octolings / Octolings in any sort of major role recently became a thing with Splatoon 2: Octo Expansion. It'd be an easy Echo Fighter, that'd also promote the recent DLC. Seems like good marketing.

Want - 55%

I'd be down with it. The Inklings were my most wanted newcomer for Smash Ultimate, and I've always thought Octolings were pretty cool.

Shadow the Hedgehog

Chance - 35%

Shadow's Assist Trophy is absent, and if any third party franchise deserves another character, it'd without a doubt be Sonic, due to him being the only third party character to appear in three Smash games, as well as having a storied history with Nintendo and Mario.

I can see it happening.

Want - 0%

Not really a fan of Edgy Hedgy.

EDIT: Thank you mods for helping me with this post. Lots of shenanigans have gone down.

 

[Parallel_Falchion]

Funky Kong
Chance: 20%
I could see it happening as a clone. Not unique, though.

Want: 35%
As an echo? Fine. Unique? No.

Isabelle
Chance: 40%
I'm pretty unsure on this one. She's got popularity from a pretty big series, but would she be unique or not? Would Sakurai even want to go with her at all?

Want: 55%
Not highly desired, but I'd be much more inclined to play her than Villager.

Octoling
Chance: 60%
Splatoon is pretty huge and this is basically the easiest clone ever, so I think the possibility is pretty high.

Want: 90%
Yes, please. I like the octoling (agent 8 specifically) design waaaaay more than any of the Inklings. And have you seen her victory animations? Incredible.

Shadow
Chance: 50%
Uh...maybe? I suppose the evidence seems to point to the possibility.

Want: 18%
I wouldn't mind, but I really don't care.

Nominate Fire Emblem Three Houses Protagonist x5

 

[VexTheHex]

Funky Kong
Chance - 20%
Not sure I can see him beating out both Dixie and King K Rool. He does have a chance however, but I feel it really isn't that high cause of his competition in his own series. Though I thought that about Daisy!
Want - 40%
He's pretty cool, but I'd have some trouble seeing him over the more popular and iconic picks of Dixie and King K Rool. Imagine the drama on here.

Isabelle
Chance - 40%
Her AT is one of those missing ones that got people wondering. She is iconic for her series and has been used for other cross overs. My only doubt is whether Sakurai really would want to dive into another fighter from a series and character not really about fighting and such.
Want - 25%
No personal attachment to her. She is cute though.

Octoling
Chance - 15%
I'm thinking the Inklings took enough effort on their own with all the different cosmetics and ink colors that they'd steer away from adding a "easy to add" echo of a character that takes quite a bit of effort.
Want - 10% (was 40%)
I'm not really strongly against or for them. But I they do have that variety of cosmetic appeal.

Edit- Thinking more into it, I actually would rather we NOT get a echo of a new fighter. Let's see how good, bad, or ugly the Inklings are before wanting them cloned.

Shadow
Chance - 75%
Another one of those missing AT, but with the bigger ! being a new AT from the series being seen. The more I think about it, the more I think it's going to happen. Why? Cause Dark Pit. Dark Pit is Pit's Shadow. Sakurai loves his Dark Pit. Sega loves their Shadow. Shadow is rather popular even with his haters, and he did become rather iconic for some time. I think it's going to happen.

But no 3rd party series can have a 2nd rep!?! Says who? Made up rules? And a Echo character wouldn't even steal that much time from someone else. So this may be the best way.

Want - 100%
You know what? Why not. I remember playing the game he and Rouge debuted in a long time ago, and I enjoyed it quite a bit. I played a decent amount of Sonic growing up, so I do have attachment to Tails more so since he was the original 2nd player option. But, I really do feel Shadow could be a neat addition. Him and Rouge were typically the ones I had take care of the Chao as well in the garden.

So ya, sign me up for the Edgehog. He has a chance so may as well get excited for him.


Nominations 5x Incineroar

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

Isabelle
Chance: 25%
Can only see her as an Echo Fighter. Tho again no implication yet that Echo Fighters will be a huge focus.
Not gonna drastically raise her chances just for the fact we haven't seen her as an Assist yet.

Funky
Chance: 1%
The same problems he had last time we rated him are still present. Having him fight like DK would look very out of character. And I still think the Tropical Freeze port came to late, even if he'd be last minute.

Octolings
Chance: 5%
Don't think we have seen anything Splatoon 2 related in the game yet. Doubt the Octoling expansion also fits the timing.

Want: 60%
Currently playing said expansion and enjoying it. Would be pretty neat.

Shadow
Chance: 25%
Certainly possible as an echo but made up rule or not, I'll stick with the ''one character per 3rd party franchise'' thing untill it oficially gets disproven.

Want: 0%
As a Sonic fan I don't really care for Shadow as a character. He stands out from the main cast in a bad way. His debut game SA2 is also very overrated IMO. If we were to get a 2nd Sonic rep I'd much rather see someone more iconic to the series like Eggman or Tails.

Bandana Dee: 57.94%
Elma: 39.31%

Leon Kennedy x5

Probably won't be rating Elma tomorrow. I'll mainly be focused on defending my boy.

 

[Luminario]

Funky Funky
Chance: 10%
He's below K.Rool and Dixie when it comes to character importance and popularity. He could work as an echo, but again he's not really got the push.
Want: 0%
Never played a DK game in my life, so all I know him from is an annoying opponent in Mario Kart Wii.

My girl Issy
Chance: 85%
Massively popular, great potential, the face of one of Ninty's very popular franchises that only has 1 fighter in Smash, capable of being unique or an echo (not that she deserves that, she's got more than enough to be unique), and stardom that outshines like half the characters in Smash already. With Ridley being added and Daisy as a echo, it seems that Sakurai's even more lax when it comes to his rules on who can be a fighter, rendering the pacifist argument slightly more invalid. The argument does still hold enough of a flame to make sure Isabelle isn't a complete lock, but she's certainly one of the most likeliest newcomers.
Want: 100%
Ive adored her ever since I got New Leaf. Truly one of my most wanted this game.

Octarian Menace
Chance: 20%
People rallied for playable Octolings since the first game, and we recently got Octo Expansion DLC for Splatoon 2. That said, with how the ink works for alts in SSBU and how we only got playable Octolings no more than a few weeks ago, they might just not work out this game. Knowing who's ink is who's seems important I think.
Want: 75%
I was so disappointed we never got Octolings in the first Splatoon, and I bought the Octo Expansion as soon as I could. Definitely one of my more wanted echoes, though there's enough left in Splatoon for a whole other unique fighter.

Ow the Edge Sonic
Chance: 25%
Him missing from the demo and presentation was very inch resting. We've seen that echoes can have different animations so long as they don't interfere with the attacks or mechanics of the original fighter, so his run could easily be the skate. Sonic's moveset doesn't really suit him all that much though, and I'd guess that 3rd Party characters need to be a little more true to source than someone like Daisy, but with how little we know it can go any which way.
Want: 5%
He was alright in Sonic Adventure 2, but besides that I don't really care for him and how edgy he is.

 

[Deleted member]

Funky want: 25%
Funky is a great character, but I have a preference towards K. Rool as the DK newcomer. Also, I don't think Funky can be done justice by being added as an Echo, which is looking more and more likely by the day.
Isabelle want: 1%
I'm not at all a fan of Animal Crossing, and I'm sick of seeing characters being brought up solely because their AT is missing (though I'll give Isabelle credit where credit is due, she's one of the few missing AT that people actually talked about before they showed off the ATs). This one precent is only because I think she's pretty cute, but that honestly just makes me reluctant to harm her.
Ocoling want: 0%
I've barely played any Splatoon, so I can't get excited. Also Shroob brought up a very good point as to why they probably won't get in...

A thought just occurred to me as to why Octoling as an echo seems super unlikely.

Mainly the fact that we have 8 different colored Inklings with their own uniquely colored Ink. If you throw in a potential 8 more Octolings with Ink that may be too similarly shaded to an Inkling's Ink, that may get really confusing in 8-player smash.

It's an issue of readability. Sakurai did a good job picking out 8 distinct colors for the 8 Inklings, meaning that you'll always know whos Ink is whose on a stage, but doing so again for the Octolings with 0 color overlapping seems very difficult.

This is also a pretty good reason for me not to want them.
Shadow want: 1%
I'm conflicted. On the one hand, I don't really like Shadow that much, especially comapred to the other "realistic" Sonic options, Tails and Eggman (& Knuckles the Assist Trophy). On the other hand I'm not really asking for another Sonic character to begin with (though I'd more than welcome one), and Shadow does have some unique things he can do to set him apart from Sonic.
However, since he's re-rated purely because of both the "Missing Assist Trophy = CONFIRMED" and the "ECCHO EVERYTHING" bandwagons, my want score for him takes quite a hit.

Tails x5

 

[TheDukeofDorks]

Ow the Edge
Chance: 10%
Once again, it’s last minute clone or bust, and the added hassle of negotiating with a third party for him makes Shadow seem less than likely in my mind.

How is the hassle of negotiating for Shadow a barrier in his way when he already has been successfully negotiated to appear in the last 2 smash games?

There may be a few hurdles for Shadow to cross, but that definitely isn't one of them.

 

[-crump-]

How is the hassle of negotiating for Shadow a barrier in his way when he already has been successfully negotiated to appear in the last 2 smash games?

There may be a few hurdles for Shadow to cross, but that definitely isn't one of them.

I assume that making a full character out of Shadow would take more in-depth discussion with Sega than the simple Assist Trophy he had before. Even reusing Sonic’s moveset (which Sega might oppose), there would still be certain animations and quirks that would have to be agreed upon by both Sakurai and Sega. Unless Shadow was incredibly popular during the Ballot period, I don’t think Sakurai would go through the effort for an echo fighter.

 

[colder_than_ice]

Isabelle
Chance: 50% - This is highest score I’ll give any potential newcomer. Isabelle’s practically the second face of Animal Crossing right now, and is being used extensively in marketing. Combine this with easily of a clone of Villager she’d be and we have a very likely newcomer.
Want: 60%

Shadow
Chance: 40% - I strongly believe that if we ever get a second character from a third-party IP, it will definitely be from Sonic. Shadow is still very popular within the Sonic fandom and can easily have his move pool built off of Sonic.
Want: 10%

Octolings
Chance: 25% - Octoling expansion may be too new for them to have been considered.
Want: 80%

Funky Kong
Chance: 10% - The tropical freeze port debuted far too late for him to be seriously considered. It also doesn’t help that him being a Donkey Kong echoe would be out of character giving how different his abilities are.
Want: 10%

 

[Sari]

Funky Kong

Chance: 40%. I feel like Dixie and K. Rool have higher priority as a DK rep though he has a decent chance of being a DK Echoe.
Want: 20%. Would be nice as an Echoes character but either way I'd prefer Dixie.

Shadow

Chance: 50% (as an Echoes). Pretty popular and could be easy to make a moveset based off of Sonic's.
Want: 5%. Don't really care about him tbh.

Isabelle

Chance: 40%. New Leaf isn't all that relevant anymore and there are probably other characters with more priority.
Want: 80%. Easily the next best Animal Crossing rep.

Octolings

Chance: 5% We just got Inklings so I doubt they'd add yet another Splatoon character.
Want: 10%. I'm fine with just the Inklings for now.

Nomination: Alm (Fire Emblem) x5

 

[BluePikmin11]

Not going to be analyzing in full yet, but I do something to say about Octolings. The argument of colors strongly reminds me of the time during Smash 4 speculation when alts were used against Dark Pit's inclusion because of "visual gameplay difficulties" before people found out he was in the roster via ESRB leak. I do not think it woud matter that much to Sakurai, and the effort to make ink colors different would not be that difficult.

 

[Opossum]

Isabelle

Chance: 99%
I've always said she was the closest thing to a shoo in after the Inklings and I stand by that. Isabelle is the only remaining Nintendo character (beyond maybe Waluigi and some first generation Pokémon) that I'd consider an icon without a shadow of a doubt. She's huge. She's everywhere. Her time is now. And frankly I think she's likely to get the full newcomer treatment, never mind echo treatment.

Want: 100%
I don't even enjoy Animal Crossing but it would just feel wrong to not have her in Smash.

Also throwing in a 100% want for Funky.

 

[skylanders fan]

Isabelle chance-Abstaing (just to bais to give a fair rating)
want 2%

Funky kong
chance
With echo fighters he has a chance and could be added in based on that but if we are getting a echo from DK I think Dixie would make more sense. And we can't have tropical freeze for switch to help
30%

want
100% DK needs more reps and we not only need King K Rool but some of DK Crew

Shadow
chance
echo fighters are a thing and he was missing AT. The issue is that he is 3rd party and who knows if they want to give sonic more than 1 rep
50%

want
hey easy charcter and a icon part of the sonic francise just maybe not Nintendo
100%

octoling
chance 0%
would have heard about it in the Direct

want
50%
meh not opposed
nominating Incineroar x5
Bandanna Dee 60%
and Elma 10%

 

[MrElectroG64]

Funky Kong, Isabelle, Octolings, and Shadow Echos.

Funky Kong
Chance: 80%
Funky has by far the highest chances........... of any echo..... Yes, he could be an original unique character, but much like Dixie Kong, he just has much more of a chance as an Echo, as now that roster space is EXTREMELY limited this time around, K. Rool beats both dixie and funky out by a long shot. However, I feel that Funky legitimately has the highest chances of ANY echo, right next to Dark Meta Knight. He would work perfectly over Donkey Kong, and now that Echo can infact change the animations of some moves, ala Daisy, his recovery could easily have its animation switched out for Funky spinning his surf board around to gain a little extra height. It would work too well. Also, I see a lot of people saying his chances are slim due to DKCTF on the Switch being released so late, which is honestly baffling. Clones are made at the END of development, people, not the BEGINNING, with only a few exceptions throughout Smash history. The game would have been revealed and released for a while now.

Want: 100%
He is my most wanted Echo, right behind Louie (considering both Louie and Funky have slim chances at getting in with their unique movesets due to roster space), but as stated above, it would work so extremely well. The only worry for him that I have is: Will he have his voice? Sakurai seems to have a deep distain for characters' voices after all *cough*DK, Bowser, Olimar, Alph*cough*


Shadow
Chance: 50%
His assist trophy not being at E3 is indeed suspicious, but I have to say I'm not entirely convinced yet. There is no evidence of this at all, only major speculation, and while it can seem like all of the puzzle pieces are fitting together on this one, I can guarantee it's fuel by wishful thinking, as Shadow has no really reason to be made into an Echo like, say, funky does, who just got a port of DKCTF with a whole new mode dedicated to him.

Want: 20%
simply put, I like and want Metal Sonic much, much more. Shadow would be interesting I guess, but I have no ties with the character, as I prefer Sonic's OTHER doppelganger.


Isabelle
Chance: 60%
this one is tricky to me, honestly. Isabelle has a rabid fan-base over in Japan and I can see Sakurai indulging in that. However, just like Funky, she only really has a shot at getting in as an Echo, which is the best possible thing for her anyways, considering Villager already seemingly dried up the well for potential animal crossing movesets.

Want: 20%
I really don't care about animal crossing, so I don't care about Isabelle. She'd be a fine Echo though and I wouldn't really be opposed to her being added, but I'm not holding my breath.


Octoling
Chance: 20%
This is another weird one, as I feel like, despite the huge fanbase, the Octoling has a much higher chance at being a unique DLC character than anything. Splatoon is huge, so I feel that they could easily still capitalize on it, especially when half of splatoon's weapons aren't even being used in the inkling. I say, since the Octolings being playable are definitely more of a Splatoon 2 thing anyways, just give them all the Splatoon's remaining weapons and release it as DLC. Though what do I know, Sakurai may just make an Octoling echo and miss out on this (because I know I'd play as a unique Octoling)

Want: 30%
an echo of the inkling would be somewhat interesting, as we would have the chance to use different weapons from the same weapon type (hopefully), though I would still much rather a unique Inkling as DLC.



Nominations: Louie (unique or echo) x5

 

[Zema]

Funky Kong
Chance: 20%
A pretty high chance all things considered. I get the impression that people are expecting a lot of Echo Fighters ever since Sakurai announced them, but I'm quite skeptical about that. I think Funky Kong is an easy Echo Fighter, but Sakurai seems to have a bias against western-designed characters, so I have my doubts regarding his inclusion.

Want: 20%
Kind of a boring character to be honest.

Shadow
Chance: 5%
I think Sonic is enough for Sakurai. Sure, Shadow had a game on the Gamecube, but is that enough to get him in? Maybe as an Echo, but even then it seems far fetched. I just cant see it happening.

Want: 0%
Sonic the Hedgehog is an obnoxious franchise with an obnoxious fanbase. I would much rather have Classic Sonic who was actually an endearing mascot instead of the abomination Sonic the Hedgehog has become today.

Isabelle: Abstain

Octolings: Abstain

I'd nominate Classic Sonic but he has no support thread so eh

 

[MrElectroG64]

man, today's topic characters should have really been specified as Echos. as I'm seeing a lot of chances for the characters being docked because "this other unique character has more of a chance." So either people think these are all supposed to be unique inclusions, or they don't know that Echos and Clones DO NOT count as newcomers, according to Sakurai.

 

[AlphaSSB]

Funky Kong

Chance: 5% - I don't think his appearance in Tropical Freeze on Switch will significantly impact his chances, but it's enough from me to go from 1% to 5%. Combined with clones being glorified as 'Echo' fighters, I'd say he's definitely in the realm of possibility, albeit still pretty unlikely.

Want: 0% - I like Funky Kong, don't get me wrong, but I have no interest in seeing him in Smash. Clone or non-clone.


Isabelle

Chance: 35% - I still say that Isabelle is one of the more likely newcomers. Animal Crossing is one of Nintendo's biggest series, and Villager was a very well received addition back in Smash 4. Isabelle could work as a clone or semi-clone, sure, but I think she has enough potential on her own to warrant a new moveset.

Want: 80% - She's definitely a fighter I'd like to see, and although it'd suck not to have her, I won't be too hurt by it.


Octolings

Chance: 5% - Although certainly possible, Octolings make for another clone I don't see happening. Splatoon just now got their first character in, and "last minute dessert" or not, I don't think he'd go with Octolings. I also don't think he would've known of the Octo-Expansion to cross-promote. Granted, clones are last-minute additions, and I do think the coincidence of the Octo Expansion happening could bring them more into the forefront of his mind.

Want: 0% - I would've loved to see them as Inkling alts or as an Assist Trophy, but I'm not a fan of adding them as fighters. Clone or non-clone.


Shadow:

Chance: 5% - You can probably notice a trend now, as I tend to give plausible 'Echo' fighters 5%. Shadow is possible, but I don't see 3rd Parties getting clones. I think Knuckles was just added alongside Shadow as an Assist Trophy, but time will tell if I'm right or wrong.

Want: 0% - I like Shadow, but I'm not a fan of adding more 3rd Parties to the roster Especially if there's a chance they may end up a clone.


Nominations: Slippy Toad x5

 

[BluePikmin11]

Octolings

Octolings are characters from Splatoon, debuting as enemies in the Splatoon’s single player campaign. Since Splatoon's big growth of popularity worldwide as a franchise (Especially in Japan), the Octolings have gained a massive fanbase mainly due to their appealing designs, spawning an immense amount of fan art, cosplay, and SFM videos. The Octolings were SO popular, that a colossal number of people requested of their playable appearance in the first Splatoon game, way before the Splatoon 2 Octo-Expansion was announced (I do not see the expansion as a positive factor for Octolings due to the release being too late in project planning). This playable Splatoon 1 appearance did not happen, but it goes to show how dedicated Octoling fans are.

This demand would likely lead to Sakurai adding them as Inkling costumes in Smash Ultimate. I theorize that Octolings were originally alternate costumes for the Inklings, but with how very distinguished the Octolings play-style are in Splatoon’s story, they became separate characters. Why do I note of the Octoling’s playstyle? I base that on this this article of Sakurai explaining Lucina’s addition over Chrom:

“Initially, I had considered including Lucina as one of Marth's alternate costumes. After all, she has a close relationship with him in FE:A. In such cases, even if two characters' names and voices differ, as long as they function the same way, I assign them as alternate costumes. The Wii Fit Trainers, Villagers, and Robin are examples of this setup.

However, even though Lucina shares her physical stats and techniques with Marth, the characteristics of their attacks differ. When two such similar characters function in an even slightly different manner, I give them a separate spot on the roster since that will affect battle records and whatnot. In that sense, you could say she was very lucky to join the fray!”

Octolings function and attack differently from Inklings in that their Elite counterparts are faster, more resilient, and deal more damage than regular Inklings. Since Octolings function different from Inklings, I feel that it will be one of the main reasons why Octolings will become separate fighters. But the biggest reason I think this decision could be made is because of the potential for unique differences.

Examining the first Splatoon’s roster of weapons alone, there is a gigantic, distinct selection of weapons to choose from that not even the Inklings cramming a fraction of the weapons in one moveset in Smash would be able to fill the entire gap out of. The options could entice Sakurai to make them separate and play around with weapons that Inklings are not utilizing. To share an example, here are multiple ways that Octolings can be differentiated:

-Octolings utilizing the faster Inkbrush, with Inklings having the slower Splat Roller.
-Octolings utilizing the quicker reloading multi-Burst Bomb, with Inklings having the standard Splat Bomb.
-Octolings utilizing the quick-charging Bamboozler 14, with Inklings using the standard Splat charger.
-Octolings utilizing the high rate Splash-o-matic, with Inklings using the standard Splattershot.

Basically, Octolings would have a more aggressive, quicker playstyle than Inklings. Of course, there is the other possibility that the changes would be minor and disappointing like with Dark Pit and Lucina in Smash 4. But noting Sakurai’s quote about “similar characters function in an even slightly different manner”, such minor differences will make them separate and different enough to warrant their own spot regardless. The possibility of Octolings becoming unplanned newcomer clones is strong, especially with the current advertising of Echo Fighters. There is also the possibility that they could stay as alternate costumes too, with Echo Fighters just being based purely on ballot popularity rather than fan popularity within a franchise, of which Octolings do not apply to ballot due to them likely not being voted over Inklings at the time.

----------

My thoughts on Isabelle remain the same. I updated my analysis of Isabelle with some new stuff, mostly transferring my thoughts on "forced moveset potential" from Tom Nook to Isabelle's:

Spoiler: Isabelle

Isabelle has been a major staple for Nintendo ever since her appearance in New Leaf. She had appeared in Mario Kart 8, having her own official Twitter, a forefront marketed icon with significant roles in new AC games, and going farther than amiibo with having her own set of Nendoroids. This character has been more promoted than other AC characters, even more than even the previous face of the franchise, Tom Nook. With such heavy marketing, I definitely think that Nintendo will WANT Sakurai to make her playable as a Smash fighter, much like Rosalina back in Smash 4’s roster plan when the cosmic princess became playable in titles like Super Mario 3D World.

Given Sakurai’s experience with working on non-combatant fighters like Villager and Wii Fit Trainer, I feel very sure that Sakurai can accomplish and create a moveset for Isabelle that would make her a unique fighter. Most might not be able to spot the potential, but looking into Isabelle’s characterization/role in Animal Crossing: New Leaf gives away the answer. Her move-set potential can easily be found in the mayor gameplay of New Leaf. Isabelle's role in Animal Crossing: New Leaf is being a secretary/assistant that helps the villager mayor (the player) with duty management.

At the start, she helps the player that just moved in town by offering advice and making them the mayor, guiding players to earn a development permit, which allows the new mayor to enact new town laws and enable public work projects to built around town. Isabelle also helps the player with the new actions the mayor can do as well. One big part of the mayor gameplay that would be used in Smash gameplay are Public Works Projects, which has Isabelle placing town objects around the environment to gain stage control.

Isabelle would be placing town structures such as fountains, clock posts, buildings (like cafes) that serve as a primary method of defense. These town structures are automatically built over time through construction zones, but they can be easily crushed by opponents if Isabelle does not keep foes at bay. Once construction is complete, the town structure becomes Isabelle's big advantage. Each town structure has various effects on Isabelle and the opponent. Fountains have wind-box effects for the opponents.

Clock-posts can freeze opponents for a small period of time every time 12 noon is quickly reached. Cafe buildings serve as a healing zone for Isabelle. These constructed objects can be destroyed, but have bigger defense than construction zones. Isabelle can lengthen the time of the town structure's effect and increase defense by holding down the B-button when starting to place structures, but at the cost of longer construction. The more objects Isabelle strategically places on the stage, the more advantages Isabelle has to overwhelm the opponent.

Would this move-set/play-style idea be considered forced like people suggest when move-sets are brought up for Isabelle? I do not believe so. As long as there is source material from the character’s tools, role, characterization and personality from their respective games, that would be enough for Sakurai to spark ideas for a play-style. Taking move-set ideas based on what Isabelle does in the Animal Crossing games is not a forced idea. Only when a character does not offer distinct characteristics, gameplay ideas, and personality compared to the current Smash Bros. roster requiring more creative liberties than the source material gives can a idea be considered forced. Isabelle does not have this problem, as her role in Animal Crossing: New Leaf provides enough instant inspiration.

I think the difference between creating a move-set for Villager and assembling a move-set for Isabelle is the clear theme, characterization, and personality. The villager in Animal Crossing does not have any clear, appealing characteristics that would immediately set a notable template for a move-set, requiring more creative thought and research to assemble a good move-set. Isabelle has a clear, stand-out trait of being a kind assistant managing mayor tasks for me to immediately see her as a unique fighter with potential. It allows the assembling of creating original move ideas for these characters to feel less restrictive and more playful. The least a newcomer needs is a clear theme, a distinct type of combat that has yet to be seen in Smash.

The theme of a town object-builder has not been seen as a fleshed out fighter in Smash. That theme is sufficable enough for Sakurai to work on a good move-set for Isabelle. To think that Sakurai would give up on implementing non-combatant newcomers like Isabelle is underestimating his creativity, especially with Sakurai noting the importance of seeking out newcomers beyond the obvious fighters that are clearly capable of doing combat. Those kinds of newcomers is what Sakurai wants because they have stand-out characteristics that not many combat-based fighters would normally have. Note his statement about non-combatants way back in a Kotaku Smash 4 interview:

“An important thing is that the characters stand out from one another—for instance, we might wanna be able to take characters that aren't typically combat-based characters. So you might have a sword-based character, but other characters are not necessarily going to [have swords]. You're not gonna wanna focus on that sort of element, just so there's a distinction between all of the other combat-based characters.

They have to have something really unique that makes them stand apart from other characters in the game, and not limit yourself to characters that are just combat-based.”

And note how Sakurai researches deeply into gameplay step-by-step to find distinct traits of a character:

“The first thing is to take an idea. For example, imagine a game and character within that game. Take a character such as the villager in Animal Crossing. The next process is think about that character's role in their game and then the structure of the game we're making. How do those work together with each other? What kind of interesting things can you do within the structure of the game? And then if you were to actually implement that character, how would the end result be, how it works with other elements of the game?”

The thorough research Sakurai does to find a character's potential even in non-combatant Nintendo franchises is why I continue to be affirmative with Isabelle for my Smash Ultimate predictions. I am confident Sakurai will find Isabelle to be a fighter with potential. Sakurai might take notable importance in making characters faithful in characterization for Smash gameplay, but Isabelle being characterized "pacifist in argument" would not be an issue that would affect the whole picture. If anything took precedent for Sakurai when it comes to deciding characters for Smash, it would be him looking at gameplay potential first. He would look past the "peaceful" issue in the same way he did for Villager and Wii Fit Trainer in SSB4 and look into the character's role to discover Isabelle's potential. Gameplay would ultimately win out over a small characterization detail. If anything, her being characterized as "pacifist" in the AC games would only make her more stand-out as a newcomer. If Nintendo had no problems with putting Isabelle in situations where she could be able to wreck opponents like in Mario Kart, I doubt Sakurai would find her being "pacifist" to be a big issue.

Once Sakurai researches New Leaf and finds methods to integrate Isabelle’s characterization and mayor gameplay into a very fun play-style, I feel Sakurai will find her to be a fighter with great potential. I think Isabelle is one of the most obvious newcomers that will be in this Smash. There is the slim possibility that she might be viewed as not unique by Sakurai and be relegated to being Echo Fighter too, but I highly doubt that, given what Sakurai had said about non-combatant newcomers and the distinct traits/gameplay mechanics Isabelle can offer from her home game.

----------

I still do not believe Funky will be considered as an Echo Fighter, because his prominence and popularity had not peaked until the Tropical Freeze Switch port, which would be way too late for the 2016 Smash Ultimate Project Plan. And as for Shadow, I am still thinking about it. I am doubting him being in right now, but this could easily be a situation where I could be wrong because I underestimated the fact that Shadow would be popular enough in the ballot to be viable as an Echo. The thought of extra clones from third-parties is still something I gotta wrap my head around right now. lol

x5 Hanafuda character

 

[AquaSol]

I'm surprised that Octoling is considered as a predictable echo by many. Splatoon just got it's first character, so I doubt that it's going to get a second so soon. I wonder how the fandom would react if Octoling did happen and Donkey Kong stayed where it is lol. Funky Kong is a very low chance as well. I'm pretty certain that we're getting King K. Rool, and Dixie Kong would be the most probable Donkey Kong echo (hoping that she'll be at least a semi-clone if she's in). I don't have much to say about Shadow and Isabelle. I think that both have decent chances.

Predictions: Octoling @ 5%, Funky Kong @ 10%, Shadow and Isabelle @ 55%
Wants: None in particular.

 

[TheDukeofDorks]

Funky Kong
Chance: 20%
A strong contender for an Echo Fighter, but one that has to compete with several other Donkey Kong characters.

Want: 100%
I need more Funky Kong in my life

Isabelle
Chance: 50%
Isabelle's inclusion is entirely up to how much Sakurai wants to stay true to her character. She fits every criteria to be a fighter in Smash Brothers, but she's a pacifist. I wouldn't be surprised if Sakurai keeps her as an AT due to it fitting her character better.

Want: Abstain
I don't play Animal Crossing.

Octolings
Chance: 10%
Here's the thing: Octolings play EXACTLY the same as the Inklings. You can change back and forth between the two in Splatoon 2, it's an entirely cosmetic change. There's no mechanic difference like the one between Marth and Lucina, and there's no personality difference like the ones between the two Pits, or Daisy and Peach. Octolings are a literal skin swap, unless Sakurai specifically wants to use more equipment from Splatoon, I don't seem him bothering with the Octolings. Honestly, I don't think they'll even show up as costumes, due to how every Inkling variant uses a different color of ink. 16 distinct color variations is really stretching it. Smash Run enemies are the most I could see from them.

Want: 45%
Eh, I don't really care one way or the other. I enjoy alternate playstyles, but I'd like to see other characters get some Echo Fighters first.

Shadow
Chance: 80%
A lot of people here are underestimating how ridiculously popular Shadow is to the everyday gamer. He is THE edgy character, the super cool guy that every 13 year old Sonic fan gravitated too. Add on to that that he's just Dark Sonic, he has all the same abilities, but a different enough personality that would warrant an Echo Fighter slot. If you're looking for a potential Echo Fighter, Shadow is near the top of that list.

And to those stating the third party complications... come on. It's Sega. Do you REALLY expect negotiations with arguably the closest third party company to Nintendo to be so difficult? Especially for a character that has already appeared in Smash Brothers twice? That's absurd.

Want: Abstain
Completely indifferent

 

[Nimbostratus]

Funky Kong
Chance- 10%
Maybe they could theoretically throw him in last minute, but I don't see him being a priority. I just don't see how K. Rool and Dixie don't both get in first, who both have MASSIVE popularity. Frankly, Funky's support is negligible in comparison. Considering that Sakurai has a history of underreping DKC at this point, Funky probably wouldn't be a top choice for an Echo.
Want- 1%
Funky is fine, but getting him in before both K. Rool and Dixie would just be kind of insulting. His board should be an important part of his moveset, but that is probably not going to be the case if he's an Echo, and that's the only way I see him getting in. Let's get the other two in the game, and then we'll talk.


Isabelle
Chance- 60%
Yeah, I can see it. She's incredibly iconic and popular at this point. Don't see her as a lock, as it's still possible they just port over all of the ATs and put focus elsewhere, or that Sakurai feels that her fighting wouldn't be true to character. I mean, her character is literally the ASSISTant.
Want- ABSTAIN
Not sure where to peg this. She deserves it, but I don't care much for the idea of her being a clone, but I haven't been convinced by any other moveset I've seen. Could be almost anywhere on the range depending on how she turns out. Probably not below 30% regardless just because she has earned it.

Octolings
Chance- 30%
Don't see the Octo Expansion having much an impact on the timeline, but they could certainly work as a late clone. Hard to put a number to this other than to say "Yes, it's a distinct possibility"
Want- 50%
Truly indifferent.

Shadow
Chance- 15%
Going to have to rate him lower than the other missing ATs. Why? He doesn't have anything else significant in his favor, like missing pallette swaps (Dark Samus, Chrom) or having massive popularity (Isabelle, Ashley). Seems like being an Echo would be a poor use of Shadow's abilities. Maybe as a semi-clone, but I just don't see Shadow being prioritized for that.
Want- 0%
Don't really like the character, don't think he would be a great choice for an Echo, and would much rather see first-party Echos.

 

[RobinotX]

Funky Kong

Chance- 15%
Dixie or King K Rool have a better chance in my opinion and he wasn’t that much of a big deal for players I think even though he got in Tropical Freeze
Want- 15%
Funky seems like a cool throwback to the SNES time and he is relevant for sure. But I think King K Rool or Dixie would be better.


Isabelle
Chance- 50%
I think with the whole Echo thing she has def a chance. But I wouldn’t like it that much as I think Villager is more than enough.

Want- 5%
She is very low on my list. I think there are other characters that deserve it more… like the ones below

Octolings
Chance- 75%
Yes. They barely need work and would be the perfect Echo.
Want- 50%
If they are in or not I don’t care.

Shadow
Chance- 85%
Yes, with Knuckles being an assist now and Shadow not yet to be seen I wouldn’t be surprised if he gets the Echo treatment he is pretty popular afaik.

Want- 50%
I don’t really care if he is in or not

 

[Slyshock]

The only thing that might stand in her way would be her general distaste towards fighting, and how that would go against her character, which is something that Sakurai has said he prioritizes in characters.

Isabelle's inclusion is entirely up to how much Sakurai wants to stay true to her character. She fits every criteria to be a fighter in Smash Brothers, but she's a pacifist. I wouldn't be surprised if Sakurai keeps her as an AT due to it fitting her character better.

Do either of you have a source for Isabelle being a radical pacifist, to the point where it'd be out of character for her to participate in a fun-for-all festival like Smash out of principle?

I've already elaborated on the implications of the out-of-context screenshot linked above and the difference between Smash "fighting" and the confrontations Isabelle tries to avoid, and how her inclusions in games like her own franchise's Amiibo Festival and Mario Kart 8 prove she's not afraid of competition even in the latter case where it's a violent and heartbreaking race, but if there's something definitive I missed in my analysis on the previous page I'd like to add it to present a clearer picture of the arguments against her inclusion.

 

[MacDaddyNook]

Funky Kong:

Chance: 30%
If fan demand is influencing the roster as much as we believe it to, Funky's chances aren't looking so good when he has Dixie and K. Rool to contend with. His only chance is as an echo fighter, but even that is questionable.

Want: 50% (unique), 0% (echo)
I really have no strong feelings for or against him, but if he makes it in, I'd rather it be on his own merit.

-----

Isabelle

Chance: 50%
Given the belief that there will be less newcomers, a 50/50 shot is the best I can give any character. Isabelle is probably the only A-List Nintendo character not on the roster, so it would be more surprising to not see her included. Also, her AT is conspicuously MIA, which may mean nothing but at least she isn't out of the running.

Want: 80% (unique), 0% (echo)
She's certainly grown on me and has become one of my go-to characters in Mario Kart. My only qualm would be finding a way to preserve her sweet and innocent nature in a moveset that makes her appear as non-aggressive. I also don't want to see Animal Crossing become the new Star Fox and only have characters be derivative of the same moveset, so no to the whole echo thing.

-----

Octoling

Chance: 30%
Splatoon just got its DLC recently that thrust the Inkling-counterparts into the spotlight. Thanks to giving clones a fancy new name, it seems we may have a couple more forced on us. That looks to be the only things going for Octolings, but because Splatoon is the new big series, it could be enough.

Want: Abstain
I just purchased and started playing Splatoon a couple days ago. I am loving it so far, but I am not too keen on clones, fancy new name or not.

-----

Shadow

Chance: 25%
He's popular and could be made a Sonic clone, plus his AT is also MIA with Knuckles taking on the role with or without him. Still, he does have stiff competition against Tails and (arguably) Dr. Eggman who both have seniority and are very iconic to their own series and gaming in general. Shadow's only upper-hand is that he can just be ported over Sonic's data which might make all the difference given time and resources.

Want: 25%
I'd be lying if I said I wouldn't get any enjoyment from him. He's such a bad character that there will be plenty of fun to be had mocking him and his over-the-top "edge". However, I still prefer him to remain an AT and leave the playable role to a better character, even from his own series.

 

[StrangeMann]

Looks like it’s time to re-rate rex and pyra again:

The project plan was finished in December 2015, when DLC for the previous game was still being developed. Gathering staff together for the new Smash was done later. pic.twitter.com/w1JyrtlKo7

— Source Gaming (@AllSourceGaming) June 20, 2018

This probably shakes things up.

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Funky Kong
10% Chance

Simply put, he could happen. But right now I am more confident in a Dixie echo, and I doubt DK will get two new echo fighters this time.

80% Want

Sure, why not. I liked DKCTF, the switch version was awesome.


Octolings

10% Chance

On one hand, they definitely seem like they would have been popular around since Splatoon came out. People have been speculating about them appearing as playable in Spaltoon since the first game. However, the biggest thing that in my opinion hurts them for this game is the ink system itself. Simply put, it might be hard to get 16 distinct inks from each other to ensure that people know which character splatted them.

60% Want

I honestly am kind of indifferent, but it could happen. I mean, I like Splatoon, but I am fine with what I got right now.

Now for the big ones.


Isabelle

85% Chance

In my opinion, Isabelle feels even more likely with echos being a thing. Part of what made me a bit skeptical last time was her having a moveset. However, I feel she is a big enough character that she could be included. She is literally the face of Animal Crossing, there is no denying that. Her using a Villager echo moveset just makes sense to me.

100% Want

I love dogs. There is nothing more that needs to be said. They are my favorite animals. End of discussion.


Shadow

....80% Want

To be honest, if we did this a month ago, I would have given him a flat 0%. He has been Sonic's mainstay of an assist trophy for two whole games, what could help him?

Well, a lot. For one, we know his assist trophy right now is MIA. Now some people might just say that is due to the fact that not all assist trophies are in the demo. Normally, I would buy that. But Knuckles, a popular sonic character, getting an Assist trophy when Shadow is nowhere to be seen does make me suspicious.

People really underestimate Shadow's popularity. Yeah he can be seen as a walking target for OW THE EDGE memes, but honestly it is easy to help that make you forget Shadow is actually popular with people. I was blinded by the fact that "better" mario choices exist and Daisy annoying me to acknowledge that people actually like Daisy.

Making him an echo of Sonic makes sense. Give him some different running, idle, taunts, and victory animations, the works. The only moves I think you would outright need to change is perhaps editing his up B to a Mewtwo teleport and his down b to a chaos control counter similar to witch time but like more for escape. That is it. And you know what? It would feel like Shadow. Maybe edit the animations on spin dash to give off the light speed dash from SA2.

100% Want

Shadow the Hedgehog is my guilty pleasure of supporting. It is something that I know some people do not like, but it is special to me. My first sonic game was Sonic Adventure 2 battle on the GC. I remember going to my cousin's house to play through it and actually enjoying the edgetastic story, the wonky controls, and the terrible voice acting. Much like SA2, in spite of some people now turning away from the game in hindsight, I still love SA2 and what it brought. To me, SA2 is Shadow. It would be a nostalgic touch.

Also, I would love to see the salt erupt when people see if he gets in. The memes and stuff would be perfect.

Nominating Smash Run x 5

 

[ShinyRegice]

Funky Kong chances: 28%
What I wrote for his day:

He hasn't been playable in a mainline Donkey Kong game before the recent Tropical Freeze port, as a result he may likely fail to make it over Dixie Kong whose playable roles in the series made her get more support. However, he's in the DK series related to all the machinery stuff like transportation and guns, giving him a defined identity and obvious moveset potential as a result. And while the TF port might be too late, it at least strongly suggests that Nintendo sees him as a marketable character.

With the potential prospect of him being in as a clone of Donkey Kong as an echo fighter his chances has just risen. Normally the TF port wouldn't have an impact on his chances, but him being a clone taking little development time means he can be added later in development after the roster has been decided. I don't put him higher as he hasn't been one of the most requested DK characters historically.

Funky Kong want: 42.5%
What I wrote for his day:

Seeing the DK series get more characters would be nice, but I care more about specific characters than characters from specific series, and Funky isn't my first choice for a DK character. As I said he has his own identity as a mechanician, but Diddy already uses gun and barrel wooden technology from the DK series in his moveset; I was going to give Funky a higher want score than that but remembering about Diddy's moveset made me lower it. And thinking about it he would be best as an Assist Trophy, something the DK series really needs too.

He's still not the DK character I would take, but knowing he would be added with little cost made me more positive about his potential inclusion. I also thought that him doing the ground slam would be weird, but I checked it and he does it in TF, although with a different animation. I also imagine him riding his surfboard for his up special which would be a nice touch, although it would still be similar to DK's up special in function and animation.
I just hope Funky Kong isn't the only DK newcomer, that would feel like disrecpect for those who have been requested K. Rool and/or Dixie for longer. If one of them gets confirmed I'm willing to go higher than 50% in want for Funky the next time we're rating him.

-----

Isabelle chances: abstain
What I wrote for her day:

She's basically the new face of the Animal Crossing series by now, but with her Assist Trophy in Smash 4 being completely non-offensive, maybe she is either not suited for fighting or her potential/theming overlaps too much with Villager. If neither of these two scenarios then I could imagine her fighting with a moveset that feels more, hum, "administrative" if you see what I mean.

I still don't have much an opinion about playable Isabelle, but to be fair many of Villager's moves wouldn't fit her... I'm not sure she's echo fighter material.

Isabelle want: abstain
What I wrote for her day:

I don't really have an opinion on her, she'd make sense as a Nintendo All-Star but I have trouble seeing her fighting. That doesn't necessarily mean she's not suited for Smash because I'm okay with being wrong about it.

I don't have anything to add compared to last time.

-----

Octoling chances: 30%
Like Funky Kong, the fact they're a potential clone means they could be added later in development and thus have the prospect of them being in Smash influenced by the 2018 era of Nintendo. They've been requested to be playable by Splatoon fans for quite some time so I could imagine them also being included for this popularity reason. And a newcomer getting a clone in the same game is not unprecedented (Marth/Roy, and of course Mario/Luigi).

Octoling want: 35%
Like most potential echo fighters, I'm mostly indifferent about whether they get in or not. As unlikely as it is, them getting as a unique newcomer would feel like wasted development time.

-----

Shadow chances: 22%
The presence of the Knuckles Assist Trophy is troubling. Either third-party series are getting more than one Assist Trophy this time, or Knuckles is a straight replacement, or it's the sign that Shadow has been promoted to playable. His body type is pretty much the same as Sonic's so he makes more sense as an echo of Sonic than Knuckles admittedly.
Edit: they would probably have to change his up special, but it would probably be feasible with a workaround like how I explained how Chrom's up B could partially reuse Ike's Aether animation to pull of a different move. Doesn't affect my rating.

Shadow want: 20%
Mostly indifferent to potential echo fighters again, although Shadow in particular doesn't really appeal to me as a potential fighter.

Elma prediction: 21.03%
Bandana Dee prediction: 40.21%

Nominating:
Returning game mode: Smash Run x5

 

[Smasher 101]

Isabelle

Chance: 80%
(Previous score: 70%)

This is the most I will give to a newcomer, and at this point she's one of only two character I'm fairly confident will be in, the other being Simon. Assist trophy hasn't shown up yet, and while I found her more likely anyway her only real competitor is out. I also think she could work as an echo fighter, but I don't think that's the only option, just gives her an extra one. Same pluses apply; she's popular, a very major character for a very important series, and maybe one of the most notable Nintendo characters not yet playable. At the very least, I fully expect her to get considered. There's a possibility that Sakurai just doesn't see it work out, but if he does, she's in, straight up.

Want: 100%

I like Animal Crossing, I want another Animal Crossing character, I like Isabelle, I'd most likely enjoy playing as her, she's more than earned it. Definitely a good option in my eyes.

Shadow

Chance: 55%

I honestly think this is very possible. Sonic's been in three times now, so I sincerely doubt they'll have any trouble getting him if they really want to make him playable. Knuckles being confirmed as an assist trophy before him is a little eyebrow raising, and Shadow is pretty popular, which I think some people underestimate. Definitely works well as a Sonic echo too. I actually think he's one of the more likely echoes at this point, and am leaning slightly towards him being in.

Want: 0%

That said I have no desire for him. I actually don't mind Shadow, and I love the Sonic series, but I'm in the camp that'd prefer to keep third party franchises at one character each, even if one's a clone. Beyond that there's a number of other echo fighters I'd want over him regardless, and he wouldn't be my first choice if I was forced to include a Sonic character. Assist Trophy is the right spot for him.

Octoling

Chance: 30%

Splatoon's definitely already big enough to justify two newcomers in one game, and Octolings make a lot sense as a echo fighter. They didn't have much importance until very recently though, likely too recently to help, which I can see being a problem even for an echo, plus we still just got Inkling. I see other echoes as more likely for this reason. Definitely has a shot though, and it wouldn't be the first time a character gets a clone the same game they joined themselves.

Want: 50%

Completely indifferent. I like them ok, they make sense, and it's not like they would take a lot of time, but I don't have any strong desire for them.

Funky Kong

Chance: 30%
(Previous score: 5%)

Echo fighters give him a solid boost since that's the only way he'll be considered for base game. Still think the Tropical Freeze port came far too late to help him much, but an echo of Donkey Kong is possible. Like with Octoling other echo fighters still feel more likely to me, and I'm not yet convinced he's the only possible echo fighter from his series, or for that matter the most likely.

Want: 0%

Even as an echo I'm not interested. Never cared about him at all and would much rather have at least three other Donkey Kong characters plus a number of other possible echoes.

Bandana Dee prediction: 51.20%
Elma prediction: 39.21%

Nominations: Tails x5

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Looks like it’s time to re-rate rex and pyra again:

The project plan was finished in December 2015, when DLC for the previous game was still being developed. Gathering staff together for the new Smash was done later. pic.twitter.com/w1JyrtlKo7

— Source Gaming (@AllSourceGaming) June 20, 2018

This probably shakes things up.

We are not rerating Rex and Pyra again for a few reasons

1. We literally just rerated them. Even if I wanted to do an emergency rerate it would be 2 weeks before nominations were even counted for such an idea.
2. This was around when the project plan was speculated to have been done. The latest I have seen it said to have been done on here was 2016 June. Most people from what I saw assumed that the project plan/development started after DLC ended. I feel just learning the project plan officially was done in 2015 December is not really strong enough new info.
3. I myself am against panic rerates. People will attempt to reassess their scores too much to save face. The reason this schedule was put in place is due to a lot of our assumptions being thrown out of wack. We underestimated some characters like Veterans as a whole this time around. We had a larger guess of amount of newcomers. This was due to such a radical shift in info we had from just speculation.

In conclusion, do not expect a Rex and Pyra rerate for some time.

 

[WeirdChillFever]

Funky Kong
Chance: 5%
An Echo that doesn't make sense for a fighter that rose the prominence too recently. DK in Smash is a different beast than his portrayal in DKC, since he also takes inspiration from the arcade game, and kidnapping ladies ain't chill to Funky.

Want: 30%
Totally unrighteous for Funky to be disrespected like that.

Octolings:
Chance: 10%
I could see Octolings being based on their begged-for-playability Splatoon 1 design. There's still a lot of problems before the kelp-cladden cephalopods can join, like distinguishing the colors and their less than stellar in-game role in Splatoon 1, so I'm not putting them as guaranteed

Want: 30%
Same with Funky. Love the character, but I'd rather wait for them to take into account their more prominent roles, like Octo Expansion and Bro-pical Freeze.

Isabelle
Chance: 70%
The heroine of the earlier project plan, Isabelle's April 2015 release for MK8 helps her on top of her general popularity. She won't be an Echo Fighter, so I'm not taking that into account

Want: 50%
The Palutena of Smash Ultimate. I expect her, but am not specifically hyped for her.


Shadow:
Chance: 30%
His AT being MIA is suspicious, but ultimately not a big factor unless coupled with other evidence like Samus' Dark alt seemingly being reimagined. However, he's still an eligible Echo Fighter I feel, so he gets a blanket 30% from me

Want: 50%
Really don't care

 

[A Distant Demon]

Isabelle
She SHOULD be one of the most likely characters. ot too late by any means, uber popular, and pretty damn important. I dont think she would be an echo though. It would be super weird to see someone so big being just a clone.

Want: 20%
Dont care for AC or isabelle that much TBH.

Octolings
Dont see this happening this time around. Maybe a DLC thing or something for the Octo expansion, but I cant see us getting octolings in base game when we are only jsut getting Inklings

Want: 20%
Meh. If they use new weapons that would be great. But I wouldn't expect more than a clone/alt

Shadow:
As far as third party clones go, no one is more logical than Shadow. I dont think "OMG NO AT THEY'RE CONFIRMED!!!" since that would mean like20 characters are confirmed, but I havne't written him out yet. I dont really expect it though.

Want: 30%
All Hail Shadow


Funky Kong:
Probably too late. . .just like DIxie was. And I dont expect him as DLC either. Frankly, I cant see him fitting in as an echo either. It would just look weird as **** to me

Want: 100%
RADICAL DUDE RIGHT HERE
Funky > Dixie > Cranky > K rool for DK characters for me.
Wholesome Funky Kong in smash would be bodacious

 

[RouffWestie]

Funky Kong
Chance: 10%
Want: 100%
Doesn't seem to have the merits, but it's more DKC rep so I love it.
----------
Isabelle
Chance: 60%
Want: 30%
Could appeal to a large fanbase, and I'd be okay with it because it's more Animal Crossing content.
----------
Octolings
Chance: 15%
Want: 1%
I feel like they'd need more popularity and game appearances to be considered, which will naturally happen as more Splatoon games come in the future.
----------
Shadow
Chance: 35%
Want: 1%
He has always been one of the more popular Sonic characters, and probably got many ballot votes. Since he's third-party, it might not have been seen as a worthwhile time investment.
Crusade Shadow is the only Shadow I can tolerate. They incorporated his powers in way that I find creative and fun. I doubt the official Smash Ultimate devs would implement his abilities in such a compelling way.

 

[Arcanir]

Funky Kong
Chance: 10%
Pretty much the same as before. He definitely has popularity as he got into MKWii and seems pretty well liked, but he wasn't really on the radar until Tropical Freeze as he was dormant for some time until that game, and in said game his role is minimal compared to Dixie (who made a comeback in a bigger way) and Cranky (who got promoted to playable from DKCR). The Switch port does give him a boost, but that's coming out this year and was worked on by Retro, which means it's not very likely Sakurai was aware of it since it was in development in another country and the studio doesn't seem to have a lot of communication with him in terms of recent releases (see: MP3 getting no content in Brawl, and the original Tropical Freeze only getting minor things like trophies and music).

The Echo Fighter concept does give him a potential foot in the door, but there is the potential issue of it sacrificing too much of the character to work (as Funky is more human then DK in his posture, characterization, and moves). You could also argue that Dixie would be a better option, but that's another can of worms in and of itself.

Want: 40%
Again, I don't mind him, I just prefer other DK characters.

Isabelle
Chance: 55%
As a character, Isabelle has risen to become one of the most prominently promoted characters by Nintendo. In her series proper she's something of a mascot, appearing in merchandise and advertisements related to the series. Outside of the series, she's also been notably promoted, such as being in Mario Kart 8 alongside Villager. There's no doubting that this cute little dog has gotten a lot of notability since her original debut, and thanks to her AT being missing (albeit among many) and being a character that has a good chance as both a completely new character and an Echo, she has a pretty good chance of joining the fight.

Want: 50%
Ambivalent.

Octolings
Chance: 25%
The DLC may've came too late to make a mark, but they were popular even during the original Splatoon and many did want them to be playable, so it's not like the demand didn't exist for them even if the Octo Expansion is off the table. Additionally, they would make good echoes of the Inklings since they are very similar to each other, so they would be a good candidate for an easy clone to add to the game.

Want: 50%
Again, ambivalent.

Shadow
Chance: 15%
A feasible Echo, particularly since his AT is MIA while Knuckles was added in. However, we don't know how third parties are going to be handled in this situation, so it's a bit more questionable with him vs. characters like Dark Samus or Chrom.

Want: 30%
I'd be more for it, but the problem is it's looking like he'd be exclusively an Echo if he's included and I don't want that at all for the character since his Chaos abilities are what would make him fun.

 

[Icedragonadam]

Funky Kong

Chance: 25%
Want: 100%

He's a good choice to be Echo character. He's also pretty popular too. Me made it in Mario Kart Wii for a reason. That said though Dixie could be in instead.

Isabelle

Chance: 65%
Want: 20%

The likeliest Echo character. S Senselessbreak even found something odd with the Animal Crossing character section. In terms of want, I don't care for her to be honest.

Octolings

Chance: 10%
Want: 5%

Splatoon feels too new to get a 2nd rep. I mean sure FE got two reps off the bat.

Shadow

Chance: 20%
Want: 0%

I really don't think 3rd party characters will get a 2nd rep. Even as Echoes. And Shadow is one of my least favorite characters overall.

Nominate

Concept: More than 5 Unique Newcomers x5

 

[ProfPeanut]

Funky Kong
Chance: 20% (<-9%)
It...could happen. Since he can fit as a Donkey Kong echo, he'd basically be the easiest DK rep they could add if DIxie Kong had to get a semi-cloned set instead. His distinct character might appeal him to a more unique moveset, on the other hand, which would reduce his chances at the same time.

Want: 1% (<- 2%)
Maybe people shouldn't go overboard with this 'echo' fighter thing. Just because you can put an echo fighter in doesn't mean you should. Personally, we have enough Dark Pits as it is, and it's not as if we have unlimited spots for echo fighters either.


Isabelle
Chance: 25% (<-70%)
Isabelle is arguably teetering between "easy echo choice" and "needs her own moveset". She could either take what remains of Animal Crossing's mechanics and translate them towards her character, or just go the easy route and echo Villager. Arguably, none of the animals can really do as many of the things that Villager can to properly echo him, but it's not unfeasible.

Still, Animal Crossing doesn't really beg for more fighters, and Isabelle's more popular than she is demanded for for Smash. My main concern is that with Ultimate, there's so much for them to worry about already that they might forego any particularly-tricky fighter concepts. This apologetic secretary dog does not make for an easy case to work with.

Want: 33% (<-40%)
Maybe Isabelle has a better chance in a game being developed like Smash 4 was. Of all the additional Animal Crossing characters they could include, Isabelle's still the most generally-appealing one you could pick, but Ultimate might just not be her time. Still, she has enough popularity that we'll likely see her in the next speculation season if she doesn't make it this time, so it's not as if either she or Animal Crossing has a relevance deadline to worry about like most other characters do.


Shadow
Chance: 30%
Dark Pit got in. What prevents Shadow?

Well, being a third-party, for starters. We've yet to double-dip into a third-party series for fighters, and while an echo fighter would probably be the quickest first example, Shadow isn't exactly the most exciting candidate that you could select.. I can't imagine seeing him before Tails or Engman, but again, it's possible that the option of being an echo fighter provides makes things that much easier for him.

Want: 1%
I figure I may as well be less stingy with these scores. I don't believe in third-party double-dipping unless the candidate is really worth it, and Shadow is just not.


Octolings
Chance: 40%
Now this is a good choice! Splatoon is ridiculously popular, but also short on potential newcomers, and Octolings would basically be the next logical choice unless Sakurai takes to a curveball choice instead.. But the Octolings didn't really get more focus as relatable characters until the Octo Expansion that had just dropped for Splatoon 2 a couple of days back, and Ultimate seems light enough on Splatoon 2 content as it is. While it'd be a lot better to see them as semi-clones instead of echoes, it's a much easier gate for them to pass through since they'll be borrowing Inkling's mechanics anyway.

Actually...could we say that the chances of semi-clone characters have gone down this time? Smash 4 didn't put in any semi-clones either - it's either full echo, or all new moves. If the Octolings appeal more the Sakurai as a Lucas-esque or Wolf-esque clone, he might have second thoughts about putting them in the installment that boasts about having clones, since he'd be throwing in an unclassified semi-clone into the lot. Then again, he'd have to explain the three Links at some point, so maybe it's not a problem at all.

Want: 99%
Heck yeah. Easy popular choice for a deserving franchise, with room to expand either now or later.


Nominations:
Viridi x5

 

[Troykv]

Isabelle...

Okay... What I said about you before?....



Shadow, Funky and Octoling Chances: Abstain

I won't rate echo fighters as I said before Chance-Wise.

Okay, so it's Isabelle time already eh? I need to put the draft of the next post after I finish this.

Isabelle

Chance: 40%

She has many things in her favor, but also some other things against her.

In one hand she is extremely popular, the cute little puppy become one of the rising stars of Nintendo on this decade, she even ended up overshadowing Tom Nook, who was previously see as the franchise's icon alongside the Villager himself.

In fact, her popularity has gone to a point where she already considered a Nintendo Icon, and had appeared several times outside of her main series (that includes of course, appearing alongside the Villager themself in Mario Kart 8)

She is of course very cute and appealing for even people that doesn't know about her.

And looks like there are many stuff she would work without ended up being a Villager clone.

In the other hand.... I wonder how exactly Sakurai views Isabelle as a playable character; she isn't exactly a fighting person (in fact, pretty much the opposite)... Maybe Nintendo will try to push her in that case? Who knows.

Want: 50%

Well, she is cute, and I wouldn't be surprised if she ended up appearing in Smash Switch.

______________________________________

Prediction time! (It's almost the day, this is so exciting!)

Micaiah: 6.9%

Emm.. Okay... so her status as an AT is unknown; and the more we think about the subject, the more I think she it's the character that Nintendo and Sakurai would try to promote more as playable... still not completely sure....

I will give her 50% Chance and 50% Want; basically the same opinions; but with the Echo Stuff added.

_________

Shadow, Funky and Octoling Chances: Abstain

I won't rate character that are seen mostly as echo fighters as I explained.

OW THE EDGE

Want: 60%

Actually... I like this guy; maybe it makes sense considering I'm like a cute little edgy cat (?)

Funky Trip

Want: 55%

He's very funky.

Octoling: 50%

Completely neutral.

_____________________

Predictions:

Bandana Waddle Dee: 51.4%
Elma: 49.5%

Nominations:

Tingle x2
Leon Kennedy x3