Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[Lord-Zero]

Azura

Chance: 2%

- FE fatigue is still a thing.

Want: 0%

- She’s not Eliwood, Zephiel, Reinhardt, Myrrh nor Hardin.

Prediction

Sans: 3.3%

Nomination

Neptune (Neptunia Series) x10

 

[ZealousGamer]

Azura

Chance 5%: Not very likely.

Want 45%: Meh. Still better characters out there. Even if we are just talking Fire Emblem.

Nominations:
Masked Link 3x
Pokemon Trainer (Gen 2) 2x

 

[Deleted member]

Azura
Chance- 2%
Honestly, with corrin inclusion and fates starting to be old, i think she may not have any chance at all. Its sucks too, she seemed like a good candidate.
Want-20%
Meh. Shes cool and all but Idk.

Sans Prediction: 15%

Noms-
Meowth x5

 

[MasterWarlord]

Azura Chance 15%: This makes the most sense of existing Fire Emblem characters to me, honestly, but I'm not expecting a Fire Emblem character we currently know about, I'm expecting yet another Roy/Corrin unknown advertisement figure. The Phone Fire Emblem game is wildly successful and makes decent advertisement fodder.

Azura Want 0%: Who wants a character from a phone game? You may as well add Vaporeon because that's the mascot of Pokemon go.

Nominate Cranky Kong x5

 

[Hinata]

Azura Want 0%: Who wants a character from a phone game? You may as well add Vaporeon because that's the mascot of Pokemon go.

Azura? She comes from Fire Emblem Fates, a mainline Fire Emblem entry. She didn't debut in Fire Emblem Heroes.

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Azura

1% Chance

The only thing helping her is her moveset potential. But damn she has a high wall to climb. For starters, Corrin exists and I doubt that they are going to get cut. Yes I know here people tend to get salty about Corrin and there are too many fire emblem memes, but the silent majority does seem to enjoy Corrin, albeit hesitant to get too much more FE content (for the record I am certain we will get an FE newcomer). As such, she has to stand out among the Fates cast, and here she falls flat. While she did rank 5th in female popularity for Fates, her popularity has not kept up with her. The fact that as unique as she is she was the only main character of Fates (I count both royal families as main characters) to not make it into Warriors is not a good sign. Finally Fates is old news. Echoes exists. A new Fire Emblem on Switch supposedly exists (though I am convinced it might be too late for the base game). Azura just does not cut it.

35% Want

To be fair, I like her design and character. She is cool. Her moveset potential does interest me too. However, I just feel that if we did get a New FE rep, it should be from... not fates or awakening. I personally hated how Warriors was essentially Fire Emblem Fates and Awakening with a side of Shadow Dragon. Seeing 4 fire emblem characters from Fates and Awakening would make me just a tad bitter.

Nominating Excitebiker x 5

DAY OVER CALCS INCOMING.

 

[GoodGrief741]

Azura Want 0%: Who wants a character from a phone game? You may as well add Vaporeon because that's the mascot of Pokemon go.

Is this really how little research people will do before rating a character? No wonder so many people drop ‘literally who’ at everything.

 

[TCT~Phantom]

MasterWarlord that post was so inaccurate in terms of content I have to ignore your post. An inaccurate post is as bad as a post with no info. I ask that @Connery ignore the noms for this post as well.

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Azura

6.28% Chance
34.56% Want

Well, it seems that a second fates rep, no matter how important to the story or unique, is unlikely. Wonder if we were rating Corrin now instead how things would be.

Today we got Sans, please rate him in chance and want, or you are gonna have a bad time. Also please predict the scores for Tom Nook.

TheFritzle gets 5 noms today. Congratulations.

Also I am tired as **** can someone post some undertale music? Maybe BluePikmin11 or @ProfPeanut ?


Also this is the last day to nominate things before the next schedule.

 

[Runic_SSB]

Zero Suit Ness

Chance: 0%
Undertale is kinda old for a new Smash character. Plus he has literally nothing to do with Nintendo except for heavy Earthbound inspiration and an upcoming Switch port. And, by the way, ports are meaningless when it comes to character viability. If the only thing your 3rd-party character has going for them is a port of a game that every other platform already got years ago, then they have zero chance.though I guess logic doesn't matter when people give a character I've spent months nominating up the list mostly on my own single-digit %s because their port was "too late in development" even though they gave a 3rd-party character whose port was announced later and still isn't out yet a 30%

Want: 50%
I love Sans, easily the best part of that whole game. That being said, he'd feel really out of place in Smash Bros.

Tom Nook prediction: 20%

Nominations:
Travis Touchdown x5 (hopefully my last vote for him).

 

[Parallel_Falchion]

Sans
Chance: 9%
I could see DLC if the Switch port of Undertale (whenever that happens) does well, but not base roster. The game did make a huge impact, though, so it's not entirely out there.

Want: Abstain
I haven't played Undertale, but I want to. I don't feel good about scoring this until I do.

Nominate Fire Emblem Switch Protagonist x5

 

[NintenRob]

Sigh
Double 0
Do I really have to say why. why do you do this to me. He's an indie character from a game with no connection to Nintendo (aside from Earthbound inspirations) until recently and even, the announcement makes it sound like its still way off, way too late to affect Smash. And as a third party character he would be so low on the priority list, it's funny

Nominate Lara Croft x5

Prediction Tom 14%

 

[NeonBurrito]

hey guys its me sans undertale

Chance - 0%

Absolutely nothing to do with Nintendo when Smash planning was going on. Considering that the port was announced this March wasn't even a formal gameplay trailer or a release date or anything, I feel like it is safe to say it hadn't been in development for over a year at the time. It doesn't really matter that Sakurai played UNDERTALE in the past, the game just doesn't have the gaming history Sakurai looks for.

Want - 0%

This is the part of my post where I say "I don't want third party characters in Smash that aren't iconic," but I honest to god think that Sans is probably more iconic than nearly every single third party character we've rated so far in RTC, as much as it kills me to say.

I'd just rather not have him in. He is a character riding on sheer popularity, and absolutely nothing else. He has no history with Nintendo. He has no history with gaming as a whole. He has no reason to be in Smash.

Nominations:
Lara Croft x5

 

[PsychoJosh]

Sans
Chance: 5%
I'll be generous and say he has a tiny chance due to the success of Undertale in both the states and japan, and the fact that he has a switch release coming soon.
Want: 0%
Good god, I'm tempted to give this a negative score. There isn't a single character that would ruin this game more for me, and I'm including Rabbids, Goku and Kim Jong Un on that list. I hate Undertale for various reasons that are not its cancerous fanbase - mostly for the fact that it's a thinly-veiled social engineering project that attempts to make the ridiculous insinuation that enjoying games where you kill enemies makes you some sort of mega sociopath. Undertale is definitely a charming game at certain points, and has excellent music, but the social engineering aspects of it as well as the mediocre gameplay and the atrocious graphics give me more than enough reason to intensely dislike it. Drop dead and stay dead, meme skeleton.

Nominating Lip (Panel de Pon) x5.

 

[Capybara Gaming]

Sans
Chance: 0.5% - His game is just now getting released on a Nintendo system long after Smash began development, his creator is American so Sakurai likely won't try to contact him despite having played Undertale, his game isn't really relevant anymore, he's far from the most iconic indie character and isn't even the main character of his game. Amongst third parties, he just doesn't have a leg to stand on.
Want: 40% - ...that doesn't mean I wouldn't like to see him. I adored Undertale and Sans was a huge reason why. Plus this would give us an excuse to have Megalovania in Smash. C'mon now.

Prediction: Tom Nook
Chance: 16.78%
Want: 31.22%

Nominations:
Sakura Shinguji x5

ribbit ribbit

 

[Deleted member]

Sans

Chance: 5%
Want: abstain

As always with characters from games I only heard of and/or seen some footage from, I don't have anything of particular to say about him aside he could be a cool Ness clone.


Noms:
Music: Final Destination (Ver. 2) x5

Tom Nook prediction: 43.17%

 

[RouffWestie]

Sans

Chance: 0%

I'm pretty sure this is yet another joke day. He doesn't meet any of the criteria for a newcomer. A meme choice.

Want: 1%

He's got no reason to be on the roster.
Because he would clearly work better as Frisk's Final Smash.

Nominations:
Wonder Red ×4
Lip x1

 

[zipzapsparkle]

Sans
Chance 10%
Want 0%

If there’s an indie character he’s a fair candidate but I don’t want him. I prefer Shovel Knight, Shantae, or whoever.

x5 Arcade Bunny

 

[Esquelen]

sans

Chance: 1%
The truth is that this is quite interesting.

Sans... ehmm... why him? He is not the main character of Undertale, it is The Human, and it would be more interesting if The Human was the character for Smash Bros.

Also...

Spoiler

Sans really is not interested in fighting, he's a bum, and we see him using Gasters Blasters on the genocidal route because he had no choice in extreme cases, and has 1 PS, you do him damage and he dies, and you can't not do it either invincible without being able to attack him.

Undertale could really deserve a position in Smash if we represented indies, had a great impact on the world of video games, although some hate it, it deserves a lot, but not Sans, in fact if Nintendo suggests Toby Fox to Sans in Smash, he will become a facepalm himself too.

Want: 99%
If Sans came out or any, would jump out of the chair, I love Undertale and know we would have stage, music (MELOGAVANIA! OMG!) And all kinds of things in the game, I would be quite happy, and Sans together Mettaton and Alphys are my favorite Undertale characters.

But as I said, The human is more presentative being the protagonist, and could have an original set moved on the pacifist and genocidal route.

(Sorry if you don't understand much, I can not write much English)

 

[Strider_Bond00J]

Sans:

Chance: 5%
Sans is a Western-born indie character, so it'd be quite the miracle for him to be in Smash Bros at all. While Sakurai has played Undertale and seemed to like it, I doubt he'd go so far to contact tobyfox himself and ask for Sans to be playable in Smash Bros. He definitely has a little bit in his favour now that Undertale's finally coming to a Nintendo platform, but even then, there's little chance in my mind Sans would get in Smash Bros.

Want: 25%
Sans' got quite the funny bone - and it's pretty entertaining that we're legitimately talking about him for Smash, but no. Sans' isn't high on my list for most wanted characters. And I'd probably choose Papyrus.

At the very least, he might get a trophy in the same way Rayman did.

Nominations: Yu Narukami X5

 

[TheDukeofDorks]

Sans

Chance: 1%
I don't think we're going to get an indie character in the first place, but if we do, there's no way it's going to be Sans. The only way an Indie character is getting if they performed absurdly well on the ballot, and Undertale didn't hit it's stride until after the ballot was over. I don't see this happening.

Could make for a neat assist trophy though.

Want: 90%

Disregarding the fact that I adore Undertale, I would find it absolutely hilarious to see Sans make it into Smash Brothers. Just imagine the reaction to his announcement!
But if we're talking Undertale characters, I'd prefer Papyrus.

 

[andimidna]

Sams umbertail

Chance: 1%
Definitely feeling this is more for the 3rd party icons, not up and coming/ flavors of the month like Sans or Tracer. Bayonetta is the only 3rd party in that isn’t really an icon, and it’s not just because of Nintendo ties. Do ppl forget she got in from the ballot?
I get that there’s no set rule for this, but it just makes sense. Nintendo has no reason to promote this, that late port doesn’t mean much. It’s nothing like what Bayonetta means to Nintendo now too. I don’t think this hits a new untapped market or would shake things up remotely like a Simon, Banjo, Crash, or Spyro would.
I really just can’t think of a single reason. And on top of that, with the really minimalist gameplay there’s so little for him to do that seems conceptually new. I’m sure there’s options; there always is, but nothing stands out to me as something I want to fight as.
Maybe someday if he can establish himself as an icon
Want: 0%
The series blew up more than it deserved which resulted in it becoming a meme tbh
Besides, from what I’ve heard of the fandom, if any of them aren’t already smash fans, I wouldn’t exactly be welcoming them with open arms

Tommy predictions: 24%
Probably not higher than Isabelle but not too low

x1 Sylux - get back on that top 7
x4 Style Savvy character
When do the below 50 get cut off? Really not a fan of that btw

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

Ness

Chance and want: 100%

He's one of the OG 12. They have no reason to cut him. Why are we rating this?

I kid, I kid.

Sans

Chance: ABSTAIN

He won't make it into the base game, I can tell you that. So we have to rate him with DLC in mind.

However, DLC is way harder to predict, since we don't know how Sakurai will handle that this time. Will he use it for fanservice like with &? Will he use it to putt in more gaming icons like &? Or is he gonna use it for promoting characters and their games like with? Maybe all three? We just don't know yet.

I assume that if we'll get another ballot and that the base roster for this game features alot of ballot heavy hitters, he'd do pretty well, but that might be to early to call.

Want: 85%

Despite me not having played Undertale, I don't have a hateboner for the game. I don't go around being like ''SJW-PIXEL****-TOXIC-FURRY GAME REEEEEE.''

I tell you, the hatedom can be just as bad as the fandom most of the time.

I mainly want Sans in Smash to see the internet implode and the glorious amont of ***hurt it would cause. It would be Corrin's reveal amplified by a billion. I can see it now... the dislikes, the reaction videos, the rants, the petitions and the death-threats. It would be a total cricus!

Oh yeah and Undertale has a pretty neat soundtrack, I'd like to have that.

Predictions for Tom Nook: 28.11%

Nominations: Leon Kennedy x5

 

[MasterWarlord]

My apologies, I was "informed" about the character from a friend. Abstained.

 

[Troykv]

Sans... Uhh

Chance: 1%

Sans has the most basic stuff to don't being an absolute zero (like actually being a videogame character and a popular one), but damn, this character is so unlike for pretty much everything else (he isn't playable, his role is important but he isn't considered actually a main character, being too new for a Third Party; etc.)

Want: 50%

It would be weird, but also it would be fun XD

__________________

Prediction:

Tom Nook: 30.1%

Nominations:

Decloned Dark Pit x2
Breidablik item x2
Decloned Ganondorf x1

 

[Nebelung]

Sans!

Chance: 1%

Uhhhh. Okay so ... Sans! He is super infamous. Sans has appeal in both the West and Japan which is a good point towards him. The thing is, I feel the only way he could get in is Smash Ballot... but... I feel he could have a chance at Smash Ballot. Undertale's popularity has declined slightly from its initial uproar though, so it'd take a lot of campaigning to get people to go for it.

1% just cause I can't make a full decision and it is technically not impossible.

Want: 30%

I mean... come on. It is hilarious and completely out of left field, and would generate a lot of interest and hype. And of course I do actually like him, not my favorite Undertale character but I can't lie and say I would not want him in Smash.

Noms: Agumon x5

 

[smileMasky]

Sans

Chance/Want: 0

I played undertale back when it was a thing. Love the game. I just don't like the fandoms. I really don't want this indie to take a slot on the roster.

Nomination Django x5

 

[Aetheri]

Sans

Chance: 1%
A big example of *ported to the Switch* "_____ for Smash!" Not every game that gets a port will get a character in Smash. In some cases it shows a connection between the company and Nintendo. When you look at characters like Crash for example, getting a port to a Nintendo system is a good sign since this character already had a decent sized demand for inclusion in Smash as well as other factors.
To top it all off, being an indie character makes it more difficult to tell what stance his chances are at since we still don't really know Sakurai's stance on putting indies in Smash as playable fighters. Even if that was the case there are other indie characters with much more Smash popularity and a greater connection to Nintendo such as Shovel Knight and Shantae.

Want: 0%
Honestly don't care enough about the character or his game. It may be a great game but I'm sort of getting tired of hearing about it all the time tbh.

----

Tom Nook-18.77%
Being an important character from one of Nintendo's biggest series.

----

Dark Samus x5

 

[ShinyRegice]

Sans chances: 1%
Undertale is a popular game and its popularity goes beyond that of most indie games, I could imagine it having the caliber of it being selected as material for an "indie rep" for the sake of one if it's something the roster might get. However, no Nintendo appearance until now hurts his chances, and even then the game is yet to be released on the Switch. Might be a DLC candidate, if anything.

Sans want: 18%
I don't see an indie character for the sake of one as something we really need, but if we have one, an Undertale character seems to be one of the most obvious choices to me.

Toom Nook prediction: 26.53%

Nominating:
Returning fighter: Corrin x4
Returning game mode: Smash Run x1

Surprising to see Corrin didn't see more nominations than usual during Azura's day, in an analogous way to how Elma got plenty of nominations when we rated Rex & Pyra.

 

[WeirdChillFever]

Ness **** is keeping you apart, you just need a bone:
Chance: 1%
I doubt that a flash-in-the pan, flavor-of-the-month hype is enough of a criteria to get in as a third party character in Smash Bros. Even then, Sans is not even the main character of his game nor did he have a potential swell of ballot support behind him like Shovel Knight or Shantae had.

Want: 1%
If we're gonna throw speculation out of the window, at least let the hellfire commence with a non-video game character joining the fray. Also no connection to Undertale and Sans's

barebones

design does not appeal to me.

Tom Nook: 14.56%

Concept: New Pikmin character x5

 

[Llort A. Ton]

Meme Skeleton

Chance- 10%
Undertale is big in Japan too from what I hear. However, there isnt much history, and I think if were gonna get an indie were gonna get either Steve or Shovel Knight, for better or for worse. Maaaaaybe DLC, if there is a Smash Ballot 2 and Sans does miraculous gangbusters, but I am doubtful.

Want- 5%
Pretty much only for the memes sake. It would be a complete ****show to see fan reactions, both happy and upset. Not a fan of Undertale either, but I like some of the soundtrack.

Toom Nok- 17.43%

Steve X 4
Thwomp X 1

 

[Al-kīmiyā']

Sans want: 0% (1-10*)

A moveset based on skeletal bones could be cool, but it's pretty lame just having a bunch of straight femurs or whatever for every bone. The red and blue guns or whatever aren't very interesting.

Nominations:

Decloned Ganondorf x5

* Indicates percentage penalty for potentially taking a slot from most wanted characters

 

[FamicomDisk]

I'm going to preface this one by saying - if you're a fan of Sans, this isn't meant as hostile or anything! I'm just giving my opinion on him, and it ended up pretty long. If you want him in, then good luck!

-----

Sans

Chance: 0%
I don't often give 0%, since even if I REALLY doubt a character's chances, they could still happen. I'm making an exception for Sans - I honestly don't think he has any chance at all at appearing. Some people seem to think he's likely just because Undertale is popular, which isn't really what makes a character at all! Ignoring the fact that I don't think indies belong in Smash, here's how I think characters should work. For first-party characters, every Nintendo character, including both obscure and popular ones, should be considered - it's a Nintendo cross-over, and it's a celebration of their history! But for third-party characters, they should at least have some lasting popularity and/or importance. Cloud, for example, is very popular, and JRPGs were made more popular outside of Japan in a big part thanks to his game! Pac-Man and Mega Man are both famous, and have a huge history behind them. Bayonetta is a little different, but she got in because she won the Ballot, so there's popularity there! So there's a trend to the third-parties in that they're all popular characters with at least decent histories behind them.

To give an example of another less famous third-party I'd be OK with, I'll use Joker from Persona 5 as an example! His game is pretty recent, but it's been incredibly popular, and it's from a series that dates back over 20 years to 1996. Not only that, but it's made by Atlus, a company that's been publishing tons of games to Nintendo consoles for years, and they're owned by Sega, who has already allowed two of their characters into Smash, along with tons of trophies and other content! Another example is Arle Nadja. Her first game was released all the way back in 1989! The series she's most known for now is also popular enough in Japan that it's an eSport there, and based on fan polls, she likely did well on the Ballot in Japan! And she's owned by Sega now, so the points from Joker apply here too.

Sans is from one indie game from a few years ago that is nowhere near as popular as it was back then. Besides the game's initial explosion in popularity, there's really nothing to Sans that makes me think he's likely!

Want: 0%
I'd prefer to not have indie characters in Smash in general - if we had to have one, I'd pick Quote, the protagonist of Cave Story, since that game was one of the first big indie games ever released! It's still popular today, despite 14 years passing since its release in 2004. Undertale is a pretty good game, and I love the music from it, but I don't think content from it - Sans or otherwise - should appear.

-----

Tom Nook chance prediction: 13.68%

Nomination:
DeMille x5

 

[BluePikmin11]

Sans is a very interesting case. UNDERTALE has worldwide popularity, including in Japan. I could see Sakurai briefly considering Sans with him potentially gaining a notable amount popularity in the ballot, at least in the West. But, the main problem I have with Sans is that the game’s popularity in Japan never seriously soared off until 2017 came. UNDERTALE is one of the few Western indies that managed to gain a huge Japanese following. I can see ballot popularity, moveset potential with Sans’ bone powers, and UNDERTALE’s Japanese popularity being considered for Sans’ inclusion, but I do not see him being in the base game at all. When DLC comes, it will be a very exciting time to speculate with Doom Guy, Sans, and Crash becoming very plausible candidates. But Sans’ time to be in Smash is definitely not now.

x5 Balloon Fighter

 

[TheFritzle]

Sans:
Chance: 2%
Japan really seems to love Undertale, it was a huge hit there, as well as pretty much every else. Popularity is Sans' only real point for him, as well as moveset potential. But, I just can't see him getting added with everything going against him. He's an indie character, which is a category which still is having trouble getting one character into Smash. Within indie's, he definitely isn't first pick. Toby Fox, the creator, is from America, which may pose a problem as Sakurai stated that he likes to work with the developers to make sure the characters feel right. Everything is pointing against him, but Sakurai has made from unpredictable decisions before.

Want: 5%
I don't really care for Undertale at all, but I think Sans is a cool character. There are just more characters that I'd rather see in his position. I think he'd play fine and have an interesting moveset, but I just don't want to see him get in.

Tom Nook Prediction:
16.51%

Nominations:
Sylux x10

 

[colder_than_ice]

We already rated this character on April Fools day, along with his brother Wingding. I believe we called him Sam back then.

Sans
Chance: 5% - Because we’re only just now getting Undertale for the Switch.
Want: 0% - As much as I love Undertale, I’d much rather see Frisk, Papyrus, or Undyne get in over him.

Tom Nook prediction: 8%

Nominations: Eevee x5

 

[Delzethin]

Damn it all, I missed Azura. I was too preoccupied with putting the finishing touches on a Certain Thing, and stuff fell by the wayside.

So, who's on the hot seat today?

...

...Hey, what's that over there?

 

[Cosmic77]

Sans

Chance: 0%
On the off chance Sakurai does consider a Undertale character, do we know for certain it would be Sans?

Regardless of what that answer is, it probably ain't happening.

Want: 25%
Undertale is okay. Don't want to see it represented on the roster, but I'd like it more than some of the other choices we've rated.

Tom Nook prediction 9.5%

Nominations: Mipha x5

 

[Dr. Jojo Phantasma]

Sans
Chance: 0%
Just because Undertale is getting a Nintendo Switch port doesn't mean he is on the radar. And even then, they may just go with Frisk instead. Regardless Undertale is an indy game that has to compete with other indies with better chances like Shovel Knight and Shantae. I also don't think Sakurai would make an effort to contact Toby.

Want: 60%
I like Undertale and Sans, and think it would be fun getting a bad time to people online. But there are loads of other characters I rather see put in first.

Tom Nook: 13.12%

x5 to Lip

 

[Cycrum]

Sans

Chance: 0%
Undertale really has not seen much lasting popularity beyond its initial explosion when virtually every prominent YouTube gaming channel and gaming website had covered it. Besides, even if Sakurai and the rest of the Smash team were to consider an Undertale character, it would likely be Frisk as they are the main protagonist of the game. Also, Sakurai tries his best to portray any character who is in Smash as faithfully as possible; because Sans is so brittle and weak, he would not make for a fun character to play as if he were portrayed accurately, and fun is definitely considered when creating a character. Also, Undertale has not seemed to make much of a noticeable impact on gaming as a whole.

Want: 25%
Sans would be a fun character to play as, but only if they utilize his moveset to the fullest and make him at least a bit more powerful and durable. However, the vocal minority of the Undertale fanbase could potentially make their way to Smash if this boney boy were to make it in, and the thought of that frightens me.

Prediction:
Tom Nook: 29.57%

Nominations:
Steve (Minecraft) x5