Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[Opossum]

It's like if the cast of Seinfeld were to randomly show up in a first-person shooter.

"What's the deal with spawn killing?"

 

[Sid-cada]

Sans

Chance - 0.05% - I definitely think this old sack of bones came in too late. Undertale wan't coming to the Switch until recently, and I don't think Sakurai would have been willing to deal with that. He also faces completion within his own series, and his own boss fight a bit of a spoiler (though well-exposed and that hasn't stopped other folks before). While he may have a small shot after DLC passes, I don't count DLC in my scores.

Want - 20% - I never bought Undertale, though I enjoyed others playing through it. I wouldn't mind it getting stages, music, etc., but I would rather not have a character.


Predictions

Tom Nook - 7.46% - Heck if I know.


Nominations

Masked Dedede Final Smash X5

 

[MasterWarlord]

Mr. Sans

Chance 5%: They did make a big deal about this game coming to Switch, and Japan actually likes this game compared to most other indie titles. Undertale was super popular for a while, and when it was dying out the document's time had passed anyway. Compared to the other overly popular indie titles, this one somewhat resembles a real game, but it's still a lot lower on the totem pole than Shovel Knight.

Want 50%: There are a lot of things I don't like about Undertale, but I'll embrace the memes with a fairly high score for this character. For once, the fanbase has backed the correct character with this franchise rather than an incredibly bland main character. I guess something as cancerous as Frisk is what it takes for the fanbase to back someone else.

Nominate Cranky Kong x5

Edit: Would TobyFox really turn down Smash Bros cash just to preserve a token spoiler? We don't need complex reasons for characters to fight in a game like this. May as well ban Mario from fighting Peach.

 

[Roberk]

Sans
Chance: 1%
Well, he is a video game character... With about nothing else backing him up. Undertale's popularity was a fad, and Sakurai likes to pick most characters for their ability to stand the test of time. Plus, why Sans? "But he has bones, telekinesis, and one-liners!" What about Frisk, whose gameplay in the pacifist route goes against almost all conventions and even foundations of an RPG, no games themselves. That sounds like an interesting challenge for a developer who made a moveset out of a light zapper game NPC and a fitness trainer. Frisk is the main character, which Sakurai tends to go for. Also, Undertale on the Switch holds no weight as it's an indie port which even isn't out yet, no way Sakurai would've been informed of it or even use it as justification.

Want: 0%
I don't want indie characters in Smash, especially ones who have little to no history or significance. Sans' inclusion would ruin Undertale for many who haven't played it. I would rather have Frisk, Papyrus, or Undyne if I had to choose. I would like some Undertale music though.

Tom Nook Prediction: 10%
If Villager had to fill gaps in their moveset with made up stuff, it's not looking good for other AC reps.

Noms: Breidablik x5

 

[UserKev]

Leave him alone and get your *** outta this thread. You're just looking for a fight and not contributing to this thread at all. Don't even think I've seen you here till now.

Eww, gross. Get a life.

Blocking you from my life now. Bye, Felicia.

You can't take this site or this thread that serious. Like legit, everyone on here runs around with their ideas and thoughts and act like they know what a man on the other side of the world is planning on doing with his game. It's just a bunch of predicting and most of it is full of echoed bias from the more popular ideas spread mostly around by young, westerns with no connections at all on what a older eastern man with direct control will be doing. Deciueye, Mimikyu, and Lycanroc could technically all be passed up for something like Oricorio which represents the different islands or Alolan Marowak to showcase the alternate forms of Gen 1 popular Pokemon. Cause truth be told, we don't really know much and just spread our personal bias as the "likely" truth. Takamaru and King K Rool were considered locks for Smash 4 by most, turned out we got neither of them. Zoroark was a popular pick in rosters as well, it failed to get in. Balloon Fighter has been a good possibility for Brawl and Smash 4, wasn't picked. Isaac totally has a shot, gets demoted to not even being an Assist Trophy. Duck Hunt Dog has no chance, he wasn't even playable in his own, lacking move set potential game. Etc.

Just always remember this is a way to pass time and try to have fun. Our predictions are pretty flawed and that's fine. I mean the Squidlings were really the only lock, nobody else is anywhere close to a 50% to be quite blunt. But that doesn't stop people scoring characters with 70% or higher which is just flat out ridiculous. But in the end, this is all meant for fun and to see how well we did on predicting stuff. None of this is actually holds any true point or merit in the end.

Uhh, I wrote that as sincerely as possible. I'm not angry or trying to mess with dude. I actually tried to make peace with that user.

waddledeeonredyoshi is a lunatic.

 

[AwesomeAussie27]

Sans

Chance: 3%

No ballot support, the Switch port game too late, and he is overshadowed by other indies as far as Smash speculation. Not even the loudness of the Undertale fandom can save him.

Want: 60%

That being said, I did love the game for what it was and do feel some fans overhype it as a masterpiece. But with Sans, he's one of the best characters in the game and would make for a fun character. Frisk, I feel is far too limited as far as his options while Sans is the most recognizable character to fans and non-fans. Who wouldn't want to have him fight Ness to poke fun at Game Theory?

Prediction for Nook: 16%

Isabelle is the mascot now and she has more star power.

Nomination: Tsubasa Oribe x5

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Also since I have a lot of important stuff to do tonight, I am going to cut this day short. It is only losing like six hours, but we have clearly enough replies. Just note if you are making your post get it in by 7:20 and it will be counted.

Sans

1% Chance

The thought that the undertale community could have had a big spring in votes for the ~3 month period from Undertale's launch to the final smash direct does help him. The game did catch on like wildfire. However, he has competition from other Undertale characters like the human. Also the fact that a switch port is far off.

100% Want

Truth be told, i got a friend who is visiting this week, hes coming in today. I know he would die happy with Sans in. But for me, it is mainly due to Undertale 1. Having a good stylisitc fit for smash. and 2. The music is dope af.

Nominating Excitebiker x 5

BluePikmin11 the day for Tom Nook starts soon. Wyoming I will post which people clearly did not follow the rules in the OP.

DAY OVER CALCS INCOMING.

 

[Wyoming]

Spoiler: Nominations: post-Azure, pre-Sans

Dark Samus x275
Lip x272
Agumon x271
Concept: Decloned Dark Pit x270
Travis Touchdown x264
Sylux x262
Urban Champion x259

Over 200:

Mipha x258
Excitebiker x252
Music: Final Destination (Ver. 2) x250
Pyra/Mythra x242
Masked Link x230
Concept: Skyrim representation x220
Cranky Kong x217
Wonder Red x213
Gengar x205
Kamek x203
Concept: Fire Emblem Heroes Summoner x200

199-150

Steve x197
Tingle x179
Linkle x175
Lloyd Irving x175
Parabo & Satebo x174
Concept: Decloned Ganondorf x174
Papyrus x168
Concept: Masked Dedede Final Smash x160
Sakura Shinguji x158
Sable Prince x155
Lara Croft x155
Concept: Octopath Traveller Character x150

149-100

Snip & Clip (Snipperclips) x145
Neku Sakuraba x144
Tetra x142
Ryu Hayabusa x140
Thwomp x133
Django x125
Katrielle Layton x120
Tsubasa Oribe x120
Slippy Toad x120
Scorpion x118
Fawful x111
Octoling x110
Labo Guy/Robot x105
Veteran: Corrin x104
Balloon Fighter x102
2B x101

99-75

Concept: Canon Bowser/DK/Diddy voice clips x99
DeMille x98
Barbara x95
Primarina x90
Leon Kennedy x90
Concept: Fire Emblem Spear User x88
Ray x88
Concept: Ken Masters alt Costume for Ryu x86
Susie x86
Smash Run x85
Klonoa x77
Fjorm x75
Arcade Bunny x75
Rerate] King K. Rool x75
Concept: Monster Hunter character x75

74-50

Veronica x73
Pokemon Trainer (Gen 2) x73
Dragonite x72
Stage: New Donk City x70
Fire Emblem Switch Protagonist x70
Eevee x70
Concept: Pikmin newcomer x65
Starfy x64
Gooey x64
Zeraora (Pokémon) x63
Tails x55
Toon Zelda x55
Breidablik Item x53
Tora & Poppi x52
Veteran: Roy x51
Veteran: Dr. Mario x51
Louie x50
Meowth x50

49-30:

Rick/Coo/Kine x45
Concept: Wars character x43
[Rerate] Rex & Pyra x41
Slime x40
9-Volt x39
Ayumi Tachibana x36
Concept: Mother Newcomer x35
Callie and Marie (Splatoon) x35
Neptune x35
Nia and Dromarch (Xenoblade) x34
Viridi x33
Doshin the Giant x32
Veteran: Bayonetta x32
Concept: Transformation characters x30
Concept: Female Announcer x30
Concept: Style Savvy character x30
Snorlax x29
Yu Narakumi x29
Leo (FE Fates) x28
Takumi (Fire Emblem) x28
Concept: Indie Character x28
Mach Rider x28
Endou Mamoru x28
Hector (Fire Emblem) x 26
Medusa (Kid Icarus) x 26
Ghirahim x26
Tiki x26
Solaire x26
Sophitia (Soulcalibur) x25
Double Day: Sheriff / Diskun x25
Prince Fluff (Kirby) x25
T-Rex x25
Nikki x25

24 and less:

Concept: No Mega Evolutions x20
Rowlet x20
Concept: Boss Battles x15
Ninten x12
Concept: Battlefield Stages x10
Joker x10
Concept: Multiple Voice Acting Options x10
Concept: Pac Man World-based Moveset x10
Black Mage x6
Alex Kidd x5
[Rerate] Daisy x5
Shadow x5
Lark x5
Saber x5
Orbulon x5
Zangoose x5
Kumatora x5
Blastoise x5
Ashley Miziku Robbins x5
Mushashi x5
Concept: 16-Player Smash x5
Concept: DLC Announcers x5
Fiora x5
Masked Man x3
[Rerate] Squirtle x2
Stage: Metal Caverns x2

Changes:

Agumon overtakes Decloned Dark Pit for 3rd.
Sylux is back in the top 7 in 6th, pushing back Urban Champion and Mipha - the latter outside the top 7.
Kamek breaks 200 noms
Corrin, and Balloon Fighter break 100 noms
K. Rool, and Monster Hunter break 75 noms
Breidabik, Louie, and Meowth break 50 noms - they are safe from the purge
Solaire breaks 25 noms

REMINDER: At midnight tonight, I will be capping the final 7 for next week's schedule.

EDIT: Or.....right now. Wait a bit TCT~Phantom for the final list.

 

[TCT~Phantom]

@jamesster445 Your post did not meet the Rule 2 guidelines.
@Indefinite Minimum Your post is clearly a joke, and your noms will not be counted

Also remember the rules in the OP exist for a reason. I do not care about any drama that people have, but keep it out of here if it does not apply to the day at hand.

 

[Wyoming]

Spoiler: Nominations: post-Sans, pre-Nook

Lip x283
Agumon x283
Dark Samus x280
Sylux x278
Concept: Decloned Dark Pit x272
Travis Touchdown x269
Urban Champion x264

Over 200:

Mipha x263
Excitebiker x257
Music: Final Destination (Ver. 2) x255
Pyra/Mythra x247
Masked Link x230
Concept: Skyrim representation x225
Cranky Kong x222
Wonder Red x217
Steve x211
Gengar x205
Kamek x203
Concept: Fire Emblem Heroes Summoner x200

199-150

Tingle x184
Linkle x180
Lloyd Irving x180
Concept: Decloned Ganondorf x180
Parabo & Satebo x174
Papyrus x173
Concept: Masked Dedede Final Smash x165
Lara Croft x165
Sakura Shinguji x163
Sable Prince x155
Concept: Octopath Traveller Character x150

149-100

Tetra x147
Snip & Clip (Snipperclips) x145
Neku Sakuraba x144
Ryu Hayabusa x140
Thwomp x134
Django x130
Tsubasa Oribe x125
Slippy Toad x125
Katrielle Layton x120
Scorpion x120
Fawful x116
Octoling x110
Labo Guy/Robot x110
Veteran: Corrin x108
Balloon Fighter x107
DeMille x103
2B x101

99-75

Concept: Canon Bowser/DK/Diddy voice clips x99
Barbara x95
Primarina x95
Leon Kennedy x95
Ray x93
Concept: Fire Emblem Spear User x88
Concept: Ken Masters alt Costume for Ryu x86
Susie x86
Smash Run x86
Arcade Bunny x80
[Rerate] King K. Rool x80
Klonoa x77
Fjorm x75
Concept: Monster Hunter character x75
Fire Emblem Switch Protagonist x75
Eevee x75

74-50

Veronica x73
Pokemon Trainer (Gen 2) x73
Dragonite x72
Stage: New Donk City x70
Concept: Pikmin newcomer x70
Gooey x69
Starfy x64
Zeraora (Pokémon) x63
Breidablik Item x60
Louie x60
Meowth x58
Tails x55
Toon Zelda x55
Tora & Poppi x54
Veteran: Roy x51
Veteran: Dr. Mario x51


49-30:

[Rerate] Rex & Pyra x46
Rick/Coo/Kine x45
9-Volt x44
Concept: Wars character x43
Slime x40
Veteran: Bayonetta x37
Ayumi Tachibana x36
Concept: Mother Newcomer x35
Callie and Marie (Splatoon) x35
Neptune x35
Nia and Dromarch (Xenoblade) x34
Concept: Style Savvy character x34
Yu Narakumi x34
Viridi x33
Doshin the Giant x32
Concept: Transformation characters x30
Concept: Female Announcer x30
Snorlax x29
Leo (FE Fates) x28
Takumi (Fire Emblem) x28
Concept: Indie Character x28
Mach Rider x28
Endou Mamoru x28
Hector (Fire Emblem) x 26
Medusa (Kid Icarus) x 26
Ghirahim x26
Tiki x26
Solaire x26
Sophitia (Soulcalibur) x25
Double Day: Sheriff / Diskun x25
Prince Fluff (Kirby) x25
T-Rex x25
Nikki x25

24 and less:

Concept: No Mega Evolutions x20
Rowlet x20
Ninten x17
Concept: Boss Battles x15
Concept: Battlefield Stages x10
Joker x10
Concept: Multiple Voice Acting Options x10
Concept: Pac Man World-based Moveset x10
Black Mage x6
Alex Kidd x5
[Rerate] Daisy x5
Shadow x5
Lark x5
Saber x5
Orbulon x5
Zangoose x5
Kumatora x5
Blastoise x5
Ashley Miziku Robbins x5
Mushashi x5
Concept: 16-Player Smash x5
Concept: DLC Announcers x5
Fiora x5
Masked Man x3
[Rerate] Squirtle x2
Stage: Metal Caverns x2

The nom 7 are as followed. VOTING FOR THESE CHARACTERS IS OBSOLETE. THEY ARE SCHEDULED IN

25/05: Lip (Panel de Pon)
26/05: Agumon (Digimon)
27/05: Dark Samus & Sylux (Metroid)
28/05: Concept: Decloned Dark Pit
29/05: Travis Touchdown (No More Heroes)
30/05: Urban Champion (Urban Champion)
31/05: Mipha (The Legend of Zelda)

It's my opinion that Dark Samus and Sylux be rated on the same day and we include Mipha, but it's up to TCT~Phantom

Edit: removed five noms from Wonder Red and Drsgonite that were made void.

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Sans
2.34% Chance
23.91% Want


Well thats the lowest we have rated in a while. Sans is now the lowest real character we have rated in chance. At least in Want he is not the lowest real choice.

Roberk gets 5 noms for Sans, use them well.

Wyoming I shall combine the double day for Sylux and Dark Samus, as such Mipha makes the schedule by a hair and a technicality.

Today we got Tom Nook, the other Animal Crossing rep that BluePikmin11 loves. Rate the loan shark in chance and want. Also predict the scores for Lip.

 

[BluePikmin11]

He has a huge fond love for business and money, Tom Nook is a major character of the Animal Crossing series, whose importance in the franchise maintained throughout all four of the mainline games. Tom Nook is a famous icon in the Animal Crossing fandom and in the gaming community, widely known for his fan-depiction as an evil, greedy debt collector, despite Nook being relatively tame in-game. He was one of the most notably requested characters way back in Brawl, whose demand was far bigger than Villager before Villager’s reveal in Smash 4’s first trailer. Although he is not significant as Isabelle as of Animal Crossing: New Leaf, Tom Nook still plays an very important role in New Leaf as the home guide, money-helper and collector, and storekeeper for players to be still considered a major character of Animal Crossing that Sakurai would consider.

The only “weakness” he has against his inclusion is move-set potential, which would not be a huge problem. Tom’s characterization as a merchant in the Animal Crossing games are distinct traits of the character that Sakurai could play around for a move-set. If Sakurai could implement Isabelle (Assuming that she gets highly recommended by Nintendo for Smash, which is VERY likely to happen), I am sure that he would find Tom to be a very attracting idea who has wild potential to be a fun fighter. This would be especially the case for the Animal Crossing fans that would love to beat up the merchant or play as him.

What would his general move-set and play-style be? Tom Nook would be standout by being a merchant-based fighter, who would utilize bells as a method of storing power for special moves. The more bells Tom Nook stores up, the more expensive and powerful his moves become. One of the first three special moves that would utilize bells would be placing down a house. The more bells you store the bigger and fancier the house will be, working well as a form of stage control. Second, tossing his bag of bells as a debt attack. The more bells you store, the more powerful the drop. Third, Tom Nook temporarily flies with his tanooki tail (Taking a bit of creative liberty from Super Mario Bros 3., much like how Villager uses Balloon Trip for his recovery in Smash 4). The more bells you store, the more expensive the transportation and defensive his recovery will be. He can ride an airplane at max bell power. Tom Nook utilizing capitalism for battle would make him a very enticing character to implement in Smash.

Would this move-set/play-style idea be considered forced like people suggest when move-sets are brought up? I do not believe so. As long as there is source material from the character’s tools, role, characterization and personality from their respective games, that would be enough for Sakurai to spark ideas. Taking move-set ideas based on what Tom Nook does in the Animal Crossing games is not a forced idea. Only when a character does not offer distinct characteristics, gameplay ideas, and personality compared to the current Smash Bros. roster requiring more creative liberties than the source material gives can a idea be considered forced. Tom Nook does not have this problem, as his roles in Animal Crossing provide enough instant inspiration.

Tom Nook just makes so much sense, especially after Villager’s inclusion in Smash 4. Tom Nook is the next choice for an out-there fighter after Isabelle. His large on-going significance in the AC series and gameplay potential will be major factors into Sakurai choosing him. It is honestly hard for me to imagine Sakurai passing off a great idea like Tom Nook, especially after Villager in Smash 4 and Isabelle’s potential addition in Smash Switch. Note his about non-combatants way back in a Kotaku Smash 4 interview:

“An important thing is that the characters stand out from one another—for instance, we might wanna be able to take characters that aren't typically combat-based characters. So you might have a sword-based character, but other characters are not necessarily going to [have swords]. You're not gonna wanna focus on that sort of element, just so there's a distinction between all of the other combat-based characters.

They have to have something really unique that makes them stand apart from other characters in the game, and not limit yourself to characters that are just combat-based.”

And note how Sakurai researches deeply into gameplay step-by-step to find distinct traits of a character:

“The first thing is to take an idea. For example, imagine a game and characters within that game. Take a character such as the villager in Animal Crossing. The next process is think about that character's role in their game and then the structure of the game we're making. How do those work together with each other? What kind of interesting things can you do within the structure of the game? And then if you were to actually implement that character, how would the end result be, how it works with other elements of the game?”

The thorough research he does to find characters even in non-combatant Nintendo franchises is why I continue to be affirmative with keeping multiple Animal Crossing newcomers like Isabelle/Tom Nook for my Smash Switch predictions. This is why I question prediction rosters that have Isabelle for her importance to Animal Crossing and gameplay potential, but do not include Nook too. Both characters have huge potential as fighters. Just because Isabelle took Tom Nook’s fame as the face of the franchise, it does not make Tom any less important to the franchise or less attracting as a fighter.

Tom Nook is still a MAJOR character in Animal Crossing. I highly doubt Sakurai would be sufficed with just Villager, because he would look foremost on move-set potential rather than listening to a fan-notion. But, just because the series is known for being peaceful that Villager would be content enough, it does not make the series any less appealing for fighter choices. Animal Crossing is big enough as a franchise now to warrant multiple newcomers. Animal Crossing has become so giant that its fanbase are hyping up and speculating theories and hopes of what the next AC title for the Switch will offer. The “issues” that Tom Nook has with franchise representation and lack of move-set potential are non-existent.

Tom Nook has an easily identifiable move-set theme with utilizing bells for a distinct play-style. Tom Nook has huge importance to the Animal Crossing games to warrant his inclusion. Animal Crossing is big enough to allow multiple characters. All of these factors point to Tom Nook being playable. In my opinion, he is one of the most obvious newcomers that will be in Smash Bros. Switch. I feel that confident about the lovable merchant.

Chance: 99%

Want: 100%

--------

x5 Balloon Fighter

 

[Erureido]

Huh, Tom Nook's day already? Well then...

Honestly, I didn't think it was going to start this soon, so I'll just double abstain. I'm familiar with Tom Nook, but I just can't think of a good chance score to give him, nor can I give him an accurate want score since I'm not that invested with the Animal Crossing series.

------

Predictions

Lip (Panel de Pon): 2.31%

Not making a comment here. I'm not familiar with the character enough, so I have there will be another double abstain tomorrow.

------

Nominations

Corrin (Fire Emblem): x5

 

[Al-kīmiyā']

Tom Nook want: 0%

They already struggled to make a fighting game moveset for an Animal Crossing character in Villager. Animal Crossing being popular doesn't outweigh the lack of good moves for smash. Tom Nook (and any other popular Animal Crossing character who would make sense) should be a costume for Villager.

Nominations:

FE Spear User x5

 

[Slyshock]

Tom Nook

Chance: 10%
Tom Nook's chances are largely based around whether Animal Crossing will get two characters instead of one or none, as Isabelle is all but guaranteed to be the first pick for Animal Crossing newcomer. If he does get in, it will very likely be as a clone. There simply aren't enough Animal Crossing mechanics to go around, and Isabelle would get first pickings. What would Nook be left with afterwards? Upgrading his shop on top of people? Saddling enemies with copious amounts of debt? He could use his nephews as dual Lumas, though that's something that I doubt many would like to see.

The above proposal to utilize some sort of ongoing currency-based power source is an interesting one, but it'd still only serve as a supplement to a core moveset rather than fill out anything by itself. Not that Villager didn't end up having to pull for some of his moves, but when you're putting together sloppy thirds (or even fourths) you're gonna feel the stretching. His own series seems to be moving away from him anyhow; His only bump in recent memory was the poorly-received Amiibo Festival.

There's no evidence to suggest he performed well in the ballot, and he didn't receive any extra goodies throughout the Smash 4 DLC period. Any claim to fame he has is in the past, as even his fandom has comparatively slowed down in Isabelle's wake. Tom Nook was never the face of Animal Crossing, at least not to the undisputed extent that Isabelle is now. K.K. Slider was always a rival, one who's seen greater promotion in Smash, Animal Crossing and simply in general. Focusing on Smash specifically, K.K. Slider has been an integral part of both Animal Crossing stages, and even got a Mii fighter costume over Nook. Even if Animal Crossing were to get a third representative, there's very little reason to believe it wouldn't be K.K. Slider. The only path forward Nook would have would be as a clone, since Slider would look odd with a moveset that doesn't heavily incorporate his guitar.

Want: 40%
Back before Villager was announced for Smash 4, Tom Nook was who I was eagerly waiting to see. He was who I thought of first when I thought "Animal Crossing newcomer", and who I thought would be the most entertaining to see in action. Fan interpretations of the character gave him a big personality boost, and his design has a lot of appeal. Needless to say that the Villager reveal was something of a disappointment, though I was still happy the series was receiving a fighter at all. I've never been a fan of player avatars being considered all-stars, and they were no exception. They would've been much more interesting with some method of using your own avatar, but aside from the Mii fighters there wasn't any such option.

Once Isabelle tore into the franchise, it became clear that she'd be the only character to receive any special treatment from there on out. I wasn't a fan of Isabelle at first, her stealing the spotlight had the adverse effect of pushing a lot of characters into the background. Tom Nook did no such thing, though I suppose that'd be a strike against his relevancy. The longer she stuck around, though, the more she grew on me. Despite only premiering recently she's proven herself to be a true starlet, and her personality's shined through. On the flip side, Tom Nook has lost both his relevance and his bite. He's more of an indistinguishable side character than ever before, and it's become hard to envision his sweater vest-wearing current self as half the Machiavellian mobster he was once playfully seen to be. Without a clear and unique moveset, he has nothing of note to offer. At this point, I see Isabelle as more likely, more worthy, and more interesting of a pick than poor old Thomas.

Nominations: Nikki x5

 

[Quetzal77]

Tom Nook
Chance: 20%
I think the battle for AC newcomer is between him and Isabelle, and tbh Isabelle may edge him out due to popularity. That's if Sakurai even adds another rep. It's definitely deserved and makes sense for the series.

Want: 50%
Indifferent if he gets in or not. I have yet to play an Animal Crossing game but it seems like a cool series and I like Villager in Smash. Maybe I'll start with the Switch release.

Lip: 9.6%
Nominations: Pyra/Mythra (without Rex) x5

 

[Ze Diglett]

Moneybags' Interspecies Protege

Chance: 5%
I'm dubious as to whether Animal Crossing is even up for a new character at this point; although it's ostensibly a big enough series to warrant multiple characters, Villager's moveset was not only arguably the biggest stretch of a character's abilities in Smash Bros. history - lord knows if Sakurai is up for that sort of deal again - but in my opinion, also represents his series fine on its own. (More on that in a bit...) Tom Nook's certainly up there in terms of importance if AC does manage to narrowly squeeze in a second rep this time around, but also faces stiff competition from Isabelle, who, to my limited understanding of the series, is more popular and current than Nook is. Plus, he's already part of Villager's Final Smash, so unless that gets a rework, he's effectively hosed. Gonna have to rate him lower than I did Isabelle for that, but it's still not out of the realm of possibility.

Want: 1%
Ehh... sorry, but I don't really want another AC fighter anytime soon. No matter how "big" or popular a series is, if it's entirely filled with non-combatant characters, then it shouldn't get more than one fighter in my book. Like I said up above, I believe that Villager and any AC stages represent the series fine already; sure, other AC characters could certainly represent specific aspects of AC's gameplay, but then again, are these mechanics really begging to be represented? Adding a character like Isabelle to represent the fact that you can build buildings in Animal Crossing would be akin to adding Yellow Toad from NSMBW to represent the fact that you can use powerups in Mario, or adding a second Pokemon Trainer (completely separate from the first one) to represent the fact that you can use healing items in Pokemon. These aren't features of their respective franchises that demand a piece of one of, if not Nintendo's largest and most powerful IP, and I feel the same way about Tom Nook and most movesets people dream up for him. Maybe they could do something unique for him, but frankly, I'm just not that interested.

Lip Prediction: 9.02%

Nominating Tingle x5

 

[Opossum]

Tom Nook

Chance: 8%
I definitely think Isabelle would take priority over Nook, but he's not impossible. Though due to being at best a second newcomer for the same series, I'm giving him this score.

Want: 50%
He's adorable. Nothing else needs to be said.


Predicting a 7.7 for Lip
Nominating K. Rool x5

 

[Dr. Jojo Phantasma]

Tom Nook
Chance: 10%
I don't think a second AC rep is going to happen, but Tom Nook while deserving faces heavy competition against Isabelle who is a lot more popular, and has become the poster girl of the series. If anyone is going to be the second AC rep, it will be her most likely.

Want: 10%
Tom Nook would be quite a hilarious character, but I rather much see Isabelle as she is just so cute.

Lip: 5.65%

x5 to Pyra/Mythra without Rex

 

[zipzapsparkle]

Tom Nook

Chance 25%
Want 50%

I think he’s a reasonable option but I think Isabelle is a safer option to predict for an AC newcomer. Tbh I thought he’d be a newcomer in SSB4 but things have changed since then.

x5 Arcade Bunny

 

[NeonBurrito]

Tom Nook

Chance - 1%

If we're getting an Animal Crossing newcomer, it'll be Isabelle. I really doubt Animal Crossing will be getting two newcomers this time around anyway. Hell, I honestly wouldn't be surprised if Isabelle didn't show up either.

Want - 65%

Tom Nook was probably my most wanted character during pre-Brawl speculation, as well as pre-SSB4 speculation, although that got shut down rather quickly by Villager.

While I originally wanted Tom Nook just so Animal Crossing could have some representation in Smash, I feel like he still has a lot to offer in terms of a moveset. He could use his tanuki tail to swing around and attack opponents (think Tanooki Mario), pull from Japanese tanuki mythology and their tendency to make mischief, use Bell bags as weapons, and use furniture and various department store items as somewhat of a terraforming character.

Seriously, if the idea of a money bag-wielding, tail-swinging, furniture-tossing, loan shark Japanese raccoon dog doesn't sound like a rad as hell fighter, I don't know what to tell you.

Although he's kind of been desensitized / changed over the years, going from shady as hell business man, to a more kind-hearted home renovator and family man, I still like the guy. Plus, he has all sorts of costumes he could wear. Always a plus.

Nominations:
Pyra / Mythra (standalone) x5

 

[Smartz]

I don't think Tom Nook is that likely;

Watch me eat those words lmao...

Want: 5%

Realistically: 2%

 

[MasterWarlord]

Tom Nook Chance - 6.5%: Tom Nook was already denied by Villager, and if Animal Crossing gets a second character he would now probably be denied by Isabelle what with her being playable in Mario Kart over him. She seems to be more popular than him too. This is all assuming Animal Crossing gets a second character in the first place. At least Resetii is a non competitor now after Nintendo was forced to make him nice?

Tom Nook Want - 60%: I really don't care whatsoever for Animal Crossing at this point, but it always seemed like a bad choice to me to put a faceless player character over Tom Nook. Tom Nook makes the most sense to use all the props, what with being a store owner, anyway. I also heavily prefer him to Isabelle.

Nominate Cranky Kong x5

 

[smileMasky]

The Raccoon God Father

Chance 5%
I really don't want to repeat what I said about the animal crossing crew. The Villager is enough.

Want 32%
Even though I give this IP a lot of crap I do want to play as Tom Nook just to think of my self as some sort of loan shark. 0There can be a compromise to the AC representation just give the Villager different skins like Olimar.

Nomination Django x5

 

[Cosmic77]

Tom Nook

Chance: 10%
Basically what others have been saying. Tom Nook is certainly popular, but Isabelle beats him out in both popularity and prominence. Now would Animal Crossing be lucky enough to get two newcomers in one game? I'm not so sure. It's not very often that a franchise gets two newcomers in one game, and even then, those characters are usually extremely different from one another and have far more obvious moveset potential. While Tom Nook could be unique, I don't know if Sakurai would be willing to spend development time on the Raccoon tycoon when he could work on another character instead.

Want: 33%
Not an avid supporter like I used to be, but I'm also not against the guy getting in Smash either. I just want Isabelle a lot more than him.

Lip prediction: 4.1%

Nominations: Miph- Oh, that's right. Feels weird not voting for Mipha after doing it for so long. Since she's the last character I wanted to rate, I guess I'll start supporting other characters.

Nominations: Cranky Kong x5

 

[wildvine47]

Tom Nook

Chance: 11% - I don’t see it. Animal Crossing struggled to get Villager as is, and I’m already not too sold on the “terraforming” Isabelle concept people have been throwing around. I genuinely think there’s not enough usable material in Animal Crossing to get two, let alone three unique characters. The 11% chance is if Isabelle ends up getting in somehow with that moveset idea, that Nook could be a clone of her or Villager. Wouldn’t count on either though. I see Villager just staying all on his lonesome for now. Maybe Isabelle or Nook can get a moveset based on amiibo festi- ahahahaha I can’t finish that sentence with a straight face.

Want: 15% - I’d rather him than Isabelle, but not by that much. As someone who couldn’t give a rat’s toss about Animal Crossing, Villager is enough for me.

Prediction

Lip: 10.02% - She’s got some notable rep in Smash already between her stick and one of Kirby’s block forms. If the “retro” rep category moves beyond the NES era, she’s a pretty good option. But when and if that happens will be impossible to predict, and it seems that Takamaru has that spot locked down for now.

Nominations

Scorpion x 5 - With Agumon now squarely on the schedule, it’s time to go back to the usual. Would definitely appreciate the help getting him up further on the rankings.

 

[Pacack]

Tom Nook:

Chance: 9%
While I agree that Tom nook is a notable character in the Animal Crossing franchise, he is not a character I actively predict. If he gets in, I imagine he would be a semi-clone or clone of either Isabelle or Villager.

That said, I expect great things from him in Smash 6.

Want: 65%
I'm not super invested in him, but I do enjoy Animal Crossing a lot, and would enjoy him if he was implemented well.

Nominations: Concept: Historical Character x5
TCT~Phantom or whoever does the nomination stuff, it seems this concept which I had been voting for earlier on was changed to Diskun/Sheriff dual day, as that's the only place that had that many nominations that kinda lines up.

Could that be reverted back to the concept if it was indeed my concept before? If not, any idea what happened to my own nominations? I had about 25 before, and I can't find it now for some reason.

 

[Nebelung]

Tom Nook!

Chance: 10%

Ok so... Isabelle is more popular. And even she doesn't need to be in, and it'd be weird to make a moveset out of what she has. I do think it is a toss-up between the two, but I feel Isabelle has an edge. It's not impossible but I just don't think Animal Crossing will get another rep.

Want: 20%

I do love Animal Crossing and I'm fond of Tom Nook, but I'd rather have other characters before him. I would welcome him in but I do not actively support him.

Noms: Muddy Mole x5

 

[Imadethistoseealeak]

Tom Nook

Chance: 5%
You'd ask me before Villager it would be well over 75%. But that's the thing. Villager was chosen as the AC rep. Now Tom Nook has bigger competition with Isabelle. I don't see us getting both so I expect the same to happen again.

Want: 25%
Once again, if you asked me pre Smash 4 it was wayyyyy higher. But I'm ok with Villager. And Isabelle's management style is more interesting. Although I'll give him a 25% due to Blue's intresting merchant Moveset.

 

[Lord-Zero]

Tom Nook (a.k.a. The TRUE villain from AC)

Chance: 29%

- Isabelle’s existence throws a monkey wrench in this villain’s chances.

Want: 5%

- He’s not Isabelle but it would be nice to beat him up.

Prediction

Lip: 9.4%

Nominations

Neptune (Neptunia Series) x3
Katrielle Layton (Professor Layton) x2

 

[FamicomDisk]

Tom Nook

Chance: 25%
Unlike some people, I do think that Animal Crossing has a good shot of getting at least one new character! Despite this, I don't think Nook is the most likely Animal Crossing candidate. He's certainly prominent in the series - he's an important character in every game, has become notorious for his mortgages (There is joke art!), and is a good pick for a new AC rep. At the same time, Isabelle seems to have eclipsed him in popularity, and so I'm not sure. If Animal Crossing gets a new character, I think it'll be Nook or Isabelle - the question then becomes, which one? I'm leaning towards Isabelle, but I think Nook is possible.

Want: 60%
I think Nook would be pretty great! They could choose to take inspiration from the fan interpretation of Nook - greedy, cunning, and etc. - to make a cool moveset. For example, he could use money to attack, steal health from his opponents, and so on. BluePikmin11 's passion and support for Nook, as well as their post above, clearly show that there is a following for Nook, and I really like a lot of the ideas presented in that post. So I'd definitely like to see him! It would also be funny to allow people to beat up Nook for revenge like people have said they want to over the years. I know I wouldn't mind that opportunity...

-----

Lip chance prediction: 11.16%

Nomination:
DeMille x5

 

[Kitty-chan]

I missed rating Sans nya!? Nyooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo!! Damn it! I could've lowered his score even more nya! And givin Eevee some noms... Curse my tardiness nya...

Tom Nook
Chance: 5%
He's pretty popular nya, but Isabelle likely out-shines him there nyao nya. And because we're probably nyot gonya get two nyu AC characters, he's gonya likely be stuck as the Villagers final smash nya.

Want: 85%
He's nyot the AC character I'm looking at, but I still like Tom Nook nyalot nya. I mean, just look at him nya! He's a money loving tanuki wearing a tie and sweater (in ACNL) nya! What is there nyot to love nya!? HUH!?!!

Nyominations
Eevee: x5

 

[Luminario]

Tom Nook n Cranny

Chance: 20%
Isabelle is likely to take the next AC spot, and I can't really see them doubling up on AC newcomers this time around. He's got great potential with the vast amounts of furniture and other house decorations in AC along with Tanuki Mario inspiration and the series is bigger than half the franchises already in Smash, so I'm certainly not saying 2 AC newcomers is impossible, just a bit unlikely.

Want: 65%
Nook's not really one of my fave AC NPCs but I'd certainly be happy to see him in the game.

Also, can we add new characters to the nominations? Cause I'd like to Nominate Moogle and Chocobo x5.

 

[Koopaul]

Tom Nook
Chance: 9%
Like many other people, I'm not confident that AC will get another character. And if it did it will probably go to Isabelle... Probably. What more can I say that hasn't already been said?
Want: 5%
I really don't care to see another Animal Crossing fighter either. If we are going to get more unconventional fighters I'd want them from other crazy sources. Like, I dunno, Dr. Wright from Sim City building stuff all over the battlefield and... hmmm...

Nominations:
Dr. Wright ×5

 

[Llort A. Ton]

Tom Nook

Chance- 30%
The old "mascot" of the series, Nook has been in every game and is pretty high up there in the realm of Nintendo characters. But, Villager could represent the older games, so I think if Sakurai wanted a new AC character he would pick Isabelle in order to showcase the "modern era" of AC.

Want- 55%
Indifferent to AC, but he is a lovable asshole that even I can appreciate as a non AC fan. We could use another greedy character to challenge .

Lip- 5.34%

Steve X 4
Thwomp X 1

 

[CaptainAmerica]

Rocket Raccoon

Chance: 5%
Want: 0%

Ah, Nook...you used to be the face of Animal Crossing.

Unfortunately, since Isabelle came along, even Nintendo doesn't seem to care much about its original tanuki. Nook really doesn't seem to be evident in any marketing anymore, and the number two crossover spot tends to go to Isabelle. Nook has all but been shunted out of the spotlight.

I honestly can't see him being added before Isabelle at all.

As to whether Animal Crossing will get another representative - that's hard to say. True, it's a major hit for Nintendo, but those games lend themselves well to stages, not a fighting game. Villager already took a lot of liberties with his moveset, including an up special from a completely different game. It's not going to be easy to come up with a logical moveset for even one more Animal villager, much less two. Yes, both of their respective support threads have done it, but even they take several liberties that are not from the home game.

Some WTF characters are fun, but the roster does not need to be packed with them. Now that we've got the Koopalings, it's also easy enough to consider that several characters could share a moveset when they'd all be interchangeably original in the first place. I'm sure this will be a controversial statement, but I could easily see Nook and Isabelle being Villager alts - after all, each of their movesets needs to be 90% made up anyway, and they all have similar builds.

But to bloat the roster with more interchangeable animals? Pass.

Prediction for Lip: 19.4%
Nomination: Skyrim x5

 

[Wyoming]

Tom Nook:

Chance: 9%
While I agree that Tom nook is a notable character in the Animal Crossing franchise, he is not a character I actively predict. If he gets in, I imagine he would be a semi-clone or clone of either Isabelle or Villager.

That said, I expect great things from him in Smash 6.

Want: 65%
I'm not super invested in him, but I do enjoy Animal Crossing a lot, and would enjoy him if he was implemented well.

Nominations: Concept: Historical Character x5
TCT~Phantom or whoever does the nomination stuff, it seems this concept which I had been voting for earlier on was changed to Diskun/Sheriff dual day, as that's the only place that had that many nominations that kinda lines up.

Could that be reverted back to the concept if it was indeed my concept before? If not, any idea what happened to my own nominations? I had about 25 before, and I can't find it now for some reason.

I believe you are referring to historical character (like Mr. GAW and ROB)? That was purged some time ago. I think it had 20 nominations.

Tom Nook:

Chance: 3%
Not impossible, but with Animal Crossing already stretching itself out for a move set, there's potentially only room for one more
character to represent the missing elements of the series. Isabelle has bested him in popularity and in relevance. Not only that, but like Chrom he's part of another character's final smash. His theme of "he's a builder and salesman" is practically represented in that attack alone.

Want: 10%
I remember him being the token AC want in the Brawl days. He's not a bad character, but honestly not someone I think needs to be a fighter to be represented in Smash.

Lip: 4.3%

Nominating Ninten x5 - help him be saved from the purge, lads.

 

[Troykv]

Ah... I prefer to don't vote this day.

_________________________________

Predictions:

Lip: 8.3%

Nominations:

Decloned Ganondorf x3
Steve x2

 

[RouffWestie]

Tom Nook

Chance: 10%

He isn't as popular as Isabelle, and isn't as prominent in the franchise as he was in the original. Tom Nook was the first NPC you met as soon as you got off the train in the first three Animal Crossing games. He gave you a home to live in and you'd be visiting him consistently throughout the game in an effort to pay off your mortgage and expand your home. Once New Leaf came around, the roles of major characters was altered. Isabelle became a more prominent character whom the player would interact with more often. Tom Nook is ultimately a supporting character who lacks the popularity I feel is needed to be considered.

Want: 35%

Just like Isabelle, I like and would welcome any Animal Crossing newcomers from the franchise. I wouldn't jump out of my seat, but it'd be a nice bonus.

Nominations: Wonder Red x5

 

[Troykv]

Sans
2.34% Chance
23.91% Want


Well thats the lowest we have rated in a while. Sans is now the lowest real character we have rated in chance. At least in Want he is not the lowest real choice.

Roberk gets 5 noms for Sans, use them well.

Wyoming I shall combine the double day for Sylux and Dark Samus, as such Mipha makes the schedule by a hair and a technicality.

Today we got Tom Nook, the other Animal Crossing rep that BluePikmin11 loves. Rate the loan shark in chance and want. Also predict the scores for Lip.

And I though that 30% in the last hours would actually make Sans rate higher than Micaiah, that would be mean.

Also, Congratulations to Mipha for having a invisible hair (?)