Azura
Chance: 15%
So many people in the speculation community talk about timing and how important the start of the development cycle is. I think a lot of people are sleeping on things from Fates because with its Japanese release in 2015 and its International release in 2016 it fits perfectly for Sakurai to include in his initial project proposal. Fates has been pushed A LOT since its release and I have little doubt that Smash Switch wasn't affected. IF, IF, Fates got another playable character, it would be Azura. Ryoma and Xandar are argued to be bigger, but you need them both/their siblings. The Fates families are parallels and need each other to be a whole, that's part of why the FE Warriors was filled with Fates characters. Azura is neutral and can stand alone, so she has a much better chance than other Fates reps, regardless of popularity. The only problem is Corrin, who already reps Fates. Awakening only got two reps because Lucina was an alt/clone. As a whole, Azura falls perfectly in line with relevance, significance, moveset, and promotion, but is only held back by Corrin already being in.
Want: 0%
A spear wielding dancer with water/dragon vein powers would be one of the best potential movesets for a newcomer. I actually really liked using her in Warriors and Heroes and I love Lost in Thoughts All Alone. She's really unique: when you see an incarnation of Azura, you don't go "oh that's a spear user/dancer". You go "oh that's Azura." Not something a lot of characters can say about themselves. My only problem with Azura is that I want Fates to end, and unfortunately, Azura will fall with it. Fates is responsible for even further dividing the multiple playerbases of FE and Smash after Awakening. Fates crossed the line with how it piggybacked off of popular things from Awakening but didn't execute them well itself (avatar, child units, etc.). It cranked everything wrong with the 3DS FE up to 11. It was inserted into everything FE ever since its release: the new TCG, Heroes, Warriors, etc. All things that were supposed to be overall celebrations of the franchise were oversaturated by the divisive Fates content.
It even weaseled its way into Smash and crossed the community's line on FE reps with Corrin as the final DLC. Now all of the objectively great FE newcomers will be met with "too much FE" and "anime swordsmen". People are legitimately dismissing Lyn, who has moveset potential and relevance, who is immensely more popular than every other FE character and even the ones who have appeared in Smash because she is an FE character. The series is bursting with untouched characters who have great character development, moveset potential, unique designs, and consistent relevancy who will be dismissed by the community for simply being associated with a franchise that got lucky in Smash 4. I swear if the FE16 lord rode a mount, used anything but a sword, and didn't have blue/red/white hair, and had more personality than anything in Smash, people would still dismiss them because "too much FE". This all leads back to Fates and its obnoxious way of oversaturating itself in EVERYTHING.
I'm very excited for E3. Smash will, of course, be amazing. But no matter how FE16 turns out, I can't wait for Fates to finally die.
Sans Prediction: 2.5%
Sigh
Noms: Breidablik x5
