Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[JamesDNaux]

Surprising to see a few high chance scores and so many low want scores.

Well I wasn't going to bother with this anymore, but since I'm the Banjo guy here goes nothing.

Chance: 1%
They were next in line once upon a time, then MS took them, what a crime.

Want: 100%
How much I want this bear and bird really is quite absurd.

People forget that they aren't just third parties, they used to be full blooded Nintendo characters. Everyone wanted Mega Man because he "felt like a Nintendo character," these guys were the real deal and it's a shame they'd be in as third parties.

If the Microsoft buyout never happened, Rare would probably still be going strong to this day with Nintendo. We wouldn't be hoping for Banjo to get in Smash, we'd be wondering whether Grunty or Mumbo would get in next, and that hurts the most.

 

[Llort A. Ton]

Banjo & Kazooie

Chance- 30%
The ball is completely in Nintendo's court. Phil Spencer gave the a-ok, ballot demand is likely very high (I know we say this about a lot of characters, but there was a lot of noise made when Spencer made his statement), they are tied closely to Nintendo, and their inclusion would break 99% of the internet. The influence this game has on many games today is pretty clear to see, especially with Super Mario Odyssey. Ya know, that hit game that was a contender for GOTY and made the Switch fly off the shelves? Focus on open world, crazy characters, transformations, exploration, a unique "coin" that is unique to every world (100 Purple Coins and 100 Music Notes), etc, etc. The bear and bird dont go unnoticed at Nintendo, just unmentioned. I'm sure the staff would like to see their inclusion, as they were also considered for Melee.

BUT

The corporate side of things is a HUGE road black. Also, theres the looming idea of either Master Chief or Steve, since they are far more important to gaming as a whole. However, I don't think either of these characters did better than Banjo on the ballot, since it was aimed at a more hardcore Nintendo crowd. Still, this is unprecedented and could be a huge undertaking with a lot of pride swallowing. Nintendo may see it as more than it's worth.

Want- 100%
It will be a cold day in Hell when Banjo Kazooie leaves my top 5 games of all time. I think that's all I need to say.

Sora- 12.01%

Thwomp X 5

 

[ShinyRegice]

Banjo & Kazooie chances: 1%
They're popular, and their owner would probably be okay with them in Smash, but Nintendo? I'm more hesitant. They might be too much of a business hassle to include compared to other third-party character options.

Banjo & Kazooie want: 63%
As someone who grew up with a Nintendo 64 I'm a little ashamed to admit I have no childhood connection with them. But considering their history having them in Smash might feel awesome.

Sora prediction: 9.86%

Nominating:
Concept: veteran character artworks recycled from Smash 3DS/Wii U x5

 

[Quetzal77]

Banjo Kazooie
Chance: 5%
Slight possibility I guess but I don't see a Microsoft owned property getting added.

Want: 0%
I never got that into Banjo Kazooie despite playing the games on N64. And them being owned by Microsoft now would just make their addition seem off to me.

Sora: 11.29%
Nominations: Pyra/Mythra (without Rex) x3, Neku x2

 

[TheFritzle]

Banjo & Kazooie Chance:
20%
I wouldn't count them out completely. I know for a fact that they must have done very well on the ballot, so Sakurai is aware of the demand. After Cloud, we're really going to need a big character to make it a surprise. With their history with Nintendo, Banjo & Kazooie seems like a natural pick. I am a little weary though, as it kind of seems like Duck Hunt was a substitute.

Banjo & Kazooie Want:
40%
Never played the games, but a lot of people would be happy if they got in, so I'm all for it.

Sora Prediction:
15.61%

Nominations:
Sylux x5

 

[Runic_SSB]

Banjo & Kazooie

Chance: 25%
They have a lot of fans and they have a history with Nintendo. Unfortunately, they're 3rd party and haven't had a game in almost a decade.

Want: 25%
I don't care about Banjo-Kazooie at all, but the fans deserve something at this point.

Sora prediction: 25%

Nominations:
Travis Touchdown x3
Funky Kong x2

 

[Organization XIII]

Chance: 50%
Phil Spencer said it was ok. Now, this wouldn't mean much except he's the head of Microsoft's gaming division so when he says it can happen, guys, it can happen. The other thing is while he's owned by Microsoft, they have worked with Nintendo in the past. For a while they let Rare continue to publish games on Nintendo's handhelds, they allowed the use of Jetpac in DK 64 on Wii U, and the biggest of all Minecraft and game wholly owned by Microsoft is on the Switch. That alone should tell you Microsoft is keen on playing ball with Nintendo. Some people also mention that Steve is more likely. Why? Sure Minecraft is huge but notice people aren't asking Phil if he would allow Minecraft Steve in Smash it is Banjo. Minecraft Steve isn't even big on his own merit it's purely because Minecraft was a game that Youtube culture made big, even really didn't even need to be a video game to achieve the same effect. I have no doubt given the choice Sakurai would choose putting Banjo in Smash over Steve. So since Banjo meets all of Sakurai's requirements for 3rd parties, Banjo's inclusion really comes down to whether Nintendo and Microsoft can settle on terms for his inclusion which is what makes it a toss-up as licensing can get messy. I will say DLC is probably where we will see Banjo but unlike Smash 4 we know DLC will happen so I have no problem including that in my ratings today since in the game is in the game.

Want: 100%
Literally my most wanted character. Before 4's DLC he had no hope all and now, finally, Banjo is a likely possibility and I want it so bad. If there was no hope my want would be 0 just because I couldn't even bring myself to dream it could happen but now that it can I want it more than anything else.

noms: Tethu X5

 

[Sid-cada]

Banjo Kazooie

Chance - 10% - While Negotiations could happen, for such an old character coming from a direct competitor, I'm not certain if they will make it. They used to be popular and have a strong nostalgia factor going for them, so it counteracts that somewhat, but I doubt it's anywhere near enough to make them likely.

Want - 55% - I can understand where they are coming from, so I can sympathize.


Prediction

Sora - 15.35% - One of the big third parties left, but can he overcome Disney?


Nominaitons

Arle Nadja X5

 

[MrElectroG64]

Banjo & Kazooie

Chances: 50%
Their chance is quite strange. On one hand, I feel like they're extremely likely. On the other, not at all. I think it really boils down to how much Nintendo will let Sakurai take Microsoft's bait in allowing him in. Who knows what they're scheming.

Want: 70%
I really like them, but it's been a while and I feel like my love for the series has died down, especially with Nuts and Bolts causing it to crash and burn. I'd still say that I'd love to see them, but I'm not holding my breathe.


Nomination: Fawful x5

 

[Mario123311]

Banjo
Chance: 1%

Phil Spencer approving means nothing. If it meant something it would have helped them during the Smash 4 ballot considering how popular they were. And even if Microsoft could get a character in, He wouldn’t stand a chance against Master Chief or Steve whom people will argue are more important to gaming as a whole.


Want: Abstain

I still have yet to even play his games... and I love 3D platformers.

Nominate Klonoa x5

 

[Deleted member]

BK!
Banjo Ka-Zooie!

Chance: 5%
Sure there's Phil Spencer and they started on Nintendo systems buuuuuut...

Want: 35%
I haven't had the chance to play to any of their games despite having played to several Rare games during their era with Nintendo, but despite this, they have a heck of a potential.
Oh, and put back their older design.


Noms:
Concept: Female announcer x5

Sora prediction: 6.23%

 

[Al-kīmiyā']

Banjo & Kazooie want: 45% (55-10*)

Nominations:

Masked Link x5

* Indicates percentage penalty for potentially taking a slot from most wanted characters

 

[GoodGrief741]

Banjo-Kazooie

Chance: 20%

Want: 80%
Pretty much one of the few third party characters left I think should get in Smash.

Sora (coincidentally one of those characters too): 12%

Noms:
Mike Jones x5

 

[Nimbostratus]

Banjo & Kazooie
Chance-15%
I honestly think they'd get in before the likes of Master Chief or Steve. Surely the developers saw B&K's popularity on the Ballot, recognize their deep Nintendo ties, and the hype they would bring without being controversial (unlike Master Chief or Steve). We have the green light on Microsoft's side (and why not, it's free advertising). Still, Nintendo probably won't go for it. It's not impossible, though.
Want- 100%
If we are going to have third parties, I want them to have Nintendo ties. In my heart, I'm still in denial that Banjo & Kazooie ever left. Their games are classics, and they would fit into Smash incredibly well.

Sora Predictions- 9%

Nominations:
Ashley x5

 

[bksbestbwoy]

Banjo & Kazooie

Chance: 50%

It's post Smash Ballot, Snake/Cloud/Ryu/Bayonetta (and to lesser extents Sonic/Megaman/Pac-Man) are all real things and the powers that be that would say no in any other case like this said yes... There's also the fact that the duo has a lot of genuine built in history with Nintendo and Nintendo's fan bases of yesteryear which makes for a pretty well rounded candidate for Smash.

Want: 90%

This is something that we should have had since Melee. I don't really hold any feelings of fondness for Rare and don't feel bad about how things turned out there, but Banjo-Kazooie in Smash is genuinely one of those things that would be akin to Snake/Cloud way back when. I would totally love it.

Nomination: Lip x 5

 

[wildvine47]

Banjo and Kazooie

Chance: 10% - I'm honestly blown away by the incredible optimism today from everyone. To me, these guys were the pipe-dreamiest pipe dream in terms of Smash options, and in many ways they still are. Ballot presence will undoubtedly make Nintendo take notice, and Phil Spencer seems to want to play ball, but one man does not a corporation make. Even if Phil Spencer himself reached out to Nintendo to ask for Banjo's inclusion, there's so much company politics involved with something like this that I can't give them a good chance score, no matter how many good things there are in their favor. This isn't a Cloud situation where they're just associated with a different console, B&K are directly owned by one of Nintendo's biggest corporate rivals. There's so many hurdles to go through there that it just doesn't seem realistic.

Want: 100% - These guys never should have left Nintendo. If Rare had never been sold, we'd have had Banjo on the roster back in the Brawl days. We'd be campaigning for Gruntilda or Mumbo now. Hell, we'd likely have gotten one of them in Smash 4! Nintendo will always be their home to me. If I'm being honest, 10% chance is likely too much for these guys, but there's a hope for these two that just won't let me put them any lower. They're also one of the few characters left that'd destroy the internet Snake/Sonic/Megaman/Cloud style, and their inevitably crazy hype trailer would be so exciting. I really really hope Sakurai jumps through whatever hurdles it takes to get these two in, and brings these prodigal children home.

Predictions

Sora: 15.10% - First of all, bleugh. Secondly, Disney won't even let Square use the guy, and his Nintendo qualifications are spotty at best. Few fandoms are as rabid as the KH one though, so he'll get some bump-ups from that.

Nominations

Impa x 5

 

[MasterOfKnees]

Banjo and Kazooie:

Chance: 5% - Banjo Kazooie was a monster game in the west, as evidenced by how popular the games are even to this day, but it didn't leave anywhere near the same mark in Japan, and coming from an era where the 3D platformer was a heavily saturated market I'm not sure what would make it stand out amongst its peers from a Sakurai point of view. Phil Spencer obviously gave his okay, but that he answered such a question on Twitter so recently could also be seen as an indication that they haven't been approached for him, otherwise I highly doubt he'd throw it out there when he wasn't pressed about it at all. I think with how popular the suggestion is there's always a slight chance it may happen, and I do believe that if they approach Microsoft for any character it'll be Banjo, but it really is hard to see where Sakurai's motivation to include them would come from.

Want: 60% - I have absolutely no personal connection to Banjo Kazooie at all, I've never played it and it's not on my shortlist either, but I'd still like to see it happen. First and foremost because it would quite easily spark the revival of a beloved series that has been completely mishandled for almost two decades by now, but also because I truly believe this would spark the greatest reaction across the internet that any character possibly could at this stage, largely because of the circumstances around the character. Again, I don't have any personal attachment to them, so I won't give it higher than this, but it would be a proper feel good moment all around.

Nominations: Mewtwo x5

 

[Dr. Jojo Phantasma]

Double Zeroes here
Third party, owned by Microsoft which can be problematic, and way past his prime and I don't think the ballot will really help him out. I didn't play any Banjo games sadly, so I don't have a personal connection.

Sora: 11.5%

x5 to Geno.

 

[Graizen]

Banjo and Kazooie
Chances: 50%
Want: 100%

I think a legendary character like this should not be out. And we know that Microsoft is giving Nintendo the freedom to do that.
But you want to know what I think?
If B & K enters the next Smash, you can expect a Master Chief or a Steve from Minecraft coming along.

Nomination: Agumon x5

 

[NintenRob]

Double nominations? Awesome, although I'm worried since I wasn't a notified about the nomination. Does name change mess with that?
Anyway first my scores

Banjo
Banjo 7%
It's not entirely impossible, but he has so many hurdles to and obstacles to go through its ridiculous. Our only shining hope is that Phil Spencer has said he'd be OK with it. But that doesn't mean Nintendo is. And the last game people cared about released long ago.
Want: 98%
And those games were awesome. The only reason this isn't 100% is fear of using his "modern" design

Prediction Sora: it should be 0, but I have no faith. 15%

Nominate Parabo and Satebo x10

 

[fogbadge]

banjo and kazooie

chances: 20% i think that ship has long since sailed it could still happen but i very much doubt it

want: 75% it would be cool

 

[BandanaWaddleDee]

Not Yooka-Laylee
Chance: 0%
They're still owned by Microsoft. Not happening anytime soon
Want: 10%
I have no connection to them. Never played the games.

Sora Prediction: 15.98%

Nominations:
Decloned Dark Pit x3
9-Volt x1
Balloon Fighter x1

(Also, as I am the only one who has nominated it and probably the only one who cares, it's spelled Endou Mamoru, not Endou Mamaru. I'd appreciate that getting fixed please.)

 

[andimidna]

B&K:
I can see them going the extra mile to go out of their way for something like this. Go for that real shocker that people believed was impossible. Made relevant by the ballot ofc
Ultimately, it would still have to be a surprise though
Chance: 16%
For ppl wondering why my description doesn’t seem to match my numbers, this is a decent score on the scale/mindset I’m in lmao
Want: 55%
I’m 19, but my first home console was the Wii
This isn’t my childhood, and I don’t find the design really appealing. I don’t like humanoid animals the same way I can’t stand talking babies. It just creeps me out I guess lmao
However, he’s a big deal and has a lot of fans so sure I’ll get over it

Sora prediction: 14%
Feels like this would be even more difficult than B&K tbh

x3 Ghirahim
x2 Azura

Edit: Hmm I’m considering nominating solo Rex, solo Alm, and regular Toad just so all our bases are covered for those concepts, especially so their noms don’t go to waste at the end of April, but I don’t think I will if no one else wants to nominate them too.

 

[Fenriraga]

Ah yes, Yooka and Laylee, the only 3D platform icons worthy of a Smash inclusion!

Chance-35%
Their chance is entirely a matter of "The ball is in Nintendo's court". They're clearly popular enough, their owners are willing to have them, and they'd make good fighters. Minecraft being cross-platform with Xbox and Switch seems like a sign of them being on decent enough terms these days, Microsoft and Nintendo have been surprisingly tight with ine another. However, they are still third party, and primarily belong to a company that is in direct competition with Nintendo. So while I think they have a better chance than others, they aren't a lock by any means.

Want: 80%
Yeah sure, that'd be tight. I like the Banjo games. Never been super into them like a lot of people are, but I believe they've more than earned their keep for Smash and would fit in perfectly along the likes of Sonic, Mega Man and Pac Man. Plus, my best bud wants him more than anyone.

Nominate Geno x5... weird that I won't be able to do this soon enough, his turn is coming up fast.

 

[Ura]

Nuts & Bolts 2 when?

*proceeds to run like hell*

Chance: 40%

I think Banjo is more likely than some might give him credit for. Especially given how popular he is in a Smash context (which is something people should be mindful of). That being said, he's not as big of a name as most third parties are and doesn't carry the same weight that a Megaman or a Pacman does. Additionally, I only see him as being a DLC inclusion and not a Base roster one.

Want: 90%

Banjo was a huge part of my childhood growing up as with a lot of other people and having him in the game would be a dream come true for a lot of us. Would also feel like things coming full circle with him being considered for Melee all those years back.

Prediction: Sora

Chance: 14%
Want: 47%

Nominations

Mike Jones X 5

 

[Capybara Gaming]

Banjo & Kazooie
Chance: 4% - Phil Spencer is not the end all, be all. Though they were considered for Smash long ago and though Microsoft MAY be ok with it, the money and company politics are the real thing here.
Want: 35% - I have no attachment to the characters but they'd make people happy.

Prediction:
Chance: 15.94%
Want: 63.21%

Nominations:
Sakura Shinguji x5

 

[zipzapsparkle]

Banjo & Kazooie

Chance 5%
Want 0%

Lots of 3rd parties want their characters in smash, but he’s not really a 3rd party. He’s more of a 1st party for the direct competition. I mean it could happen but I find it unlikely.

Kamek x2
Cranky x3

 

[MasterWarlord]

BK Chance - 6%: They apparently did well on the ballot but I heavily doubt if they beat a certain crocodile who everybody doubts the chances of. They pretty much need to have won the ballot to have even been considered.

BK Want - 80%: In a universe with no Rare buyout, K. Rool, BK, and Grunty should all be in the game already. We'd be campaigning for Mumbo at this point.

Nominate Blue Bowser x5

 

[Deleted member]

Banjo & Kazooie

Chance: 7%
Super popular pick could lead Nintendo to try to make it happen, especially after the Ballot + Phil Spencer's comments. Obviously Microsoft is a huge hurdle to overcome though.

Want: 40%
Never been a fan of BK myself but a lot of people want them and they seem good enough (I mean, it's a freaking bear with a bird on his back).

Sora Prediction: 8.11%

Nominating Excitebiker x5

 

[Wyoming]

I'm BANJOOOO
WHOOOOOAAAA

Chance: 2%
Gotta be real, even if Spencer approves of the idea, Banjo is dormant and negotiations between Nintendo and Microsoft could prove difficult regardless. DLC, on the other hand, I believe MAY be more of a possibility....but I am rating based on base game.

Want: 75%
Yeah I loved both games, even if I was more of a DK 64 man myself. The series is full of colorful characters and abilities that would fit in so well in Smash.

Sora pred: 9.7%

Noms: Black Shadow x5

 

[Munomario777]

Kazooie + Banjo

Chance: 5%. They're heavily requested, and the head of xbox is down for it... but being a dormant franchise in a competitor's stable really hurts their chances here.

Want: 40%. They could be pretty neat! I have no personal attachment though.



Predictions

Sora: 13.2%. He has a Nintendo presence and all, but between KH3's absence on Switch and the potentially tricky rights issues given Disney's involvement, the waters look rough.



Nominations: Blue Bowser x5

 

[Lord-Zero]

Banjo & Kazooie

Chance: 1%

- They’re popular and requested but I think that ship sailed a long time ago.

Want: 20%

- Not a priority for me but I wouldn’t be upset if they did make the cut.

Prediction

Sora: 10.5%

Nominations

Katrielle Layton (Professor Layton) x3
Black Shadow x2

 

[Troykv]

Banjo-Kazooie.

Chance: 1%

Eh... I don't know... the fact he's a Microsoft character and a western character makes this unlikely, but not impossible.

Want: 50%

Well... They're cool, their classic games are fun.

________________

Prediction time!

Sora: 21.5% (oh boy, the new over hyped Third Party?)

Nomination time!

Micaiah (Fire Emblem) x5

 

[Cycrum]

Banjo & Kazooie

Chance: 7%
Their only chance in getting in is if these two were among the most highly requested characters in the ballot overall, and I'm unsure if that is the case among the many fans who do not frequent message boards or online communities like these. Otherwise, other Microsoft reps, especially Master Chief and Steve, will easily be prioritized over them since their franchise has been basically dead for nearly a decade.

Want: Abstain
I have never played their games, nor I have seen them in action, so I don't know how much I would want them, if at all, or if they bring anything new to the table.

Predictions:
Sora: 24%

Nominations:
Steve (Minecraft) x4
Spyro x1

 

[CometX-ing]

Banjo & Kazooie
Chance: 1%
There is little reason to expect them in Smash, primarily because they are Microsoft owned. "But Phil Spencer" I hear you start, but here's the thing. Just because Phil Spencer says he's OK with it doesn't mean it can happen. Just because he is the head of Xbox doesn't mean he gets free reign to do anything he wants. No doubt he has to get approval with a board or something or simply from people higher up in Microsoft. I'm sure that the tweets about him being up for Banjo in Smash are purely from the sense of he would want it to happen or that he would be fine with it happening personally.

Want: Abstain
Never played the games, and they're not on my priority list of games to play, I also have no strong feelings for them. Whether they get in or not is a concern to me.

Nomination:
Primarina x5

 

[Pazzo.]

Instrument Animals Tag Team BATTLE.

Chance: 10%
3rd Party lacking relevence. The Bear and Bird have an absolute army of supporters however, so there's a slight popularity chance.

Want: 50%
Never been a big BK (Banjo Kong) guy, but I can see how the two would be a good character addition.

Nomination:
Sudowoodo x5

 

[CannonStreak]

Banjo-Kazooie

Chance: 5%

Though Phil Spencer said he is fine with the duo being in Smash Bros, I still don't see them being in the game, base or as DLC.

Want: 98%

I would love to see the duo get in the game, as they have a good potential in terms of moveset, and they have a history with Nintendo itself. I'd be surprised if they get in, but I'd still welcome them and even try them out.

 

[TheZoologist]

UGHHHHH LET'S DO THIS.

Chance: 30%
Man, I would really love this to be higher, because I freaking LOVE these two. They are classic N64 characters through and through. It's just their whole situation that really bogs them down. Phil Spencer has given his blessing though and I'm sure they were requested pretty highly on the Smash Ballot (I know I voted for them). It's all up to Nintendo and I'm begging them to put them in. If they did, they would easily become my mains in Smash for Switch.

Want: 1000%!!!!
They are seriously the only newcomers I've ever really pined and hoped for in Smash. I'm all for any newcomers that make sense and have something new to bring to the table for Smash. But Banjo-Kazooie are the characters that I've been wanting in Smash ever since the Melee days. They're my all-time favorite video game characters and if they made it into Smash, they would easily be unique and fun combatants with a lot to offer to both newcomers and veterans of the series, I guarantee it.

 

[YoshiandToad]

Banjo-Kazooie

Chance: 5%
I'd say these two did relatively well in the ballot, they have history with Nintendo and Rare still worked for Nintendo, I have no doubt they'd already be in. Alas they are now the competition, but Phil Spencer is down for it. I wonder which look they'd sport...

Want: 50%
Honestly I've never played a Banjo Kazooie game outside Nuts and Bolts, and that's the worst one apparently. I have some respect for the two, but lack the personal connection I have with other third parties or even fellow once Nintendo now Microsoft subserviant; Conker, whose gameboy game(pre Bad Fur Day out) was the first game I ever personally owned.

Prediction: Sora: 17%

Nomination:
Fire Emblem Heroes Summoner X 5

 

[Kitty-chan]

Banjo and Kazooie

Chance: 2.5%
Phil being ok with the idea means very little nya, but it could maybe increase the odds by a percentage nya~? The only reason I see Banjo nyabove 1% is that he may of done pretty decent in the ballot and he is a very popular 3rd party character nya! His chances are still rather nyagative imo though nya~

Want: 70%
I like Banjo Kazooie and the duo's inclusion would be pretty damn magical nya!

Nyominations
Isabelle: x5